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Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight May 13: How Good Is Rangers’ C.J. Wilson?

Welcome to the latest installment of Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight , your number one source for daily box score updates. Thursday’s games featured strong pitching performances from C.J. Wilson , Mat Latos and Jonathan Sanchez , as well as a two-homer night at Coors Field.

 

HITTERS

Hitter of the day: Ryan Zimmerman (3-for-5, 3 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI)

Ryan Zimmerman teed off on the previously untouched Jhoulys Chacin , going 3-for-5 with three runs, two homers, and six RBI. The Nats’ third baseman is now batting .319 with 15 runs, eight homers and 22 RBI in 27 games this season.

• Hunter Pence went 1-for-4 with a three-run homer off of Chris Carpenter Thursday night. In his last four games, Pence is 7-for-18 with five runs, three homers, and seven RBI. His season average, however, is just .240, thanks in large part to an equally pathetic BABIP .

The window to buy low on the 27-year-old Pence has likely passed. The Astros’ right fielder is coming off back-to-back 25-HR, 10-plus-steal seasons, and owns a career batting average of .285. Pence might hit in one of the league’s worst offenses, but he’s perhaps one of the most underrated fantasy players because of it.

• Like Pence, teammate Lance Berkman is on a four-game hot streak. Counting his three-hit performance Thursday night, Berkman has seven hits in his last 14 at-bats with five runs, two homers and four RBI during that span.

Also similar to Pence, Berkman’s season struggles (.239 average through 21 games) can be blamed on a .222 BABIP. Given his health (and possibly a new team by July 31), Berkman should push for 25 homers and a .300 average in 2010.

• Chone Figgins went 0-for-4 Thursday night, lowering his season average to .185. The 32-year-old is still taking walks (17.1 percent BB/9), but his current strikeout rate (26.7 percent) is way above his career mark of 17.4 percent. Figgins’ contact rate , which is usually among the best in the majors, is slightly below-average. In addition to this, Figgins is suffering from a .250 BABIP (compared to his career mark of .339).

These factors explain the slow start, but his career totals suggest Figgins’ futility shouldn’t last long. Most agree that his 2009 line (114 runs, 42 steals, .298 average) is unattainable, but 80 runs, 35 steals and a .270 average are still well within reach, making Figgins a decent buy-low option.

Luke Scott went 2-for-4 with a homer and four RBI Thursday afternoon. He’s hit .259 (7-for-27) with five runs, four homers, and seven RBI in seven games since the calendar turned.

Scott’s .213 season average can be partially blamed on his unlucky .213 BABIP. His free-swinging mentality (career 23.3 percent strikeout rate) and low contact percentage (career 76.6), however, make him prone to this.

Luke’s bat can carry a team at times, just be sure to bench him when it goes cold. Come season’s end, fantasy managers can expect another 25-HR, .260-average season from the Orioles’ left fielder/designated hitter.

• Brennan Boesch is making a strong case to remain in the Tigers’ lineup when Carlos Guillen returns from the DL in a few weeks. The 25-year-old left-handed batter went 2-for-3 with two runs and a homer off C.C. Sabathia on Thursday, his third in just 16 games this season. He’s also batting .368. (For more on Brennan Boesch, click here .)

 

PITCHERS

Pitcher of the day: Mat Latos (W, CG, H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K)

• Thursday night’s Giants/Padres matchup featured two young electric arms: Mat Latos and Jonathan Sanchez. The two put on a show in their last meeting , and this time was no different.

• Latos tossed a one-hit shutout, walking none and striking out six, improving his record to 3-3 while lowering his ERA and WHIP to 3.32 and 0.97, respectively. If you toss out his April 26 outing against Florida, (everyone deserves at least one mulligan) Latos would have a 1.99 ERA.

The 22-year-old appears to be hitting his stride on his way to a breakout season, just as I predicted .

Jonathan Sanchez was the tough-luck loser Thursday night, surrendering just one run on three hits and one walk in eight innings. In seven starts (44 innings) thus far, Sanchez sports a 2.66 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, with a 45/20 K/BB ratio.

Sanchez’s high walk rate (3.99 thus far, 4.67 career) will be a number to keep an eye on. If he can limit his free passes, the 27-year-old southpaw may be en route to a breakout season.

Bud Norris has struggled through his first six outings this season, failing to register a quality start. The Astros’ 25-year-old hurler had a breakout performance Wednesday night against the Cardinals, however, as he allowed just one run on six hits in eight innings. Norris also fanned eight.

Norris is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, as he throws a 93-95 MPH fastball and an upper-80’s slider. For him to be effective as a Major League starter, he’s going to have to develop his seldom-used changeup. His rough start thus far (6.03 ERA, 1.69 WHIP) can be partially attributed to a .421 BABIP and 56.6 percent strand rate. He’s probably much better than what he’s been in his first six starts, but Norris is a long ways away from being a reliable fantasy option.

C.J. Wilson continued his inexplicable dominance on Thursday, allowing just one run on four hits and three walks in seven innings against the Athletics. Wilson’s 1.48 ERA and 1.09 WHIP have been aided by a .259 BABIP and 82.4 left on-base percentage . His 4.25 xFIP, however, suggests trouble ahead. The converted reliever is a solid sell-high option.  

• Jhoulys Chacin had a 15.1 scoreless innings streak to start the season working in his favor as he took the hill against the Nationals Thursday night. The streak ended abruptly, however, as Ryan Zimmerman blasted two homers off Chacin, the first a two-run shot in the first inning, the second a three-run bomb in the fifth.

Chacin left after five innings, allowing six runs on six hits and one walk. Like most 22-year-old pitchers, Chacin will likely provide many ups and downs, but keeper/dynasty league managers should take notice of his nasty fastball/changeup combo .

 

RELIEVERS

• Baltimore closer Alfredo Simon picked up his fifth save in as many chances on Thursday, extending his scoreless innings total to eight. The recently-turned 29-year-old has filled in for injured reliever Jim Johnson admirably, but his walk rate (5.15 BB/9) in limited action suggests possible trouble ahead.

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight 5/12: How Good Is Rangers’ Derek Holland?

Miss any of Wednesday night’s action? Don’t fret. Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight is here to recap all things fantasy relevant, starting with game No. 23 on our summer-long journey.

 

Game No. 23 – New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

The first game of Wednesday’s doubleheader was quick and painless, thanks to fantastic pitching performances from Rick Porcello and Javier Vazquez .

Porcello loaded the bases via two singles and a walk in the second, but he escaped the inning without any further damage. It was smooth sailing after that, as Porcello dazzled the Yankees with his sinking fastball and slider. He even mixed in an occasional curve, a pitch the Tigers have tried to limit in previous starts.

The 21-year-old shut out the Yankees in seven innings, allowing four hits and three walks while fanning two. His ERA and WHIP now stand at 6.08 and 1.70, respectively. Porcello is still learning to pitch, so it’s anyone’s guess as to what you’ll get out of him each time he toes the rubber. In keeper/dynasty leagues he’s a hot commodity, but in one-year leagues, he’s not yet a safe play.

Javier Vazquez turned in his first quality start of the season on Wednesday, allowing just two runs on five hits and a pair of walks in seven innings. He also struck out seven, while lowering his ERA to 8.10.

Vazquez has suffered from a slightly elevated BABIP (.335) and an unusually low strand rate (63.9 percent) this season. His walk rate is a sky-high 5.10 (2.38 BB/9 career), and his fastball velocity is way down. This is concerning but expected from a 33-year-old pitcher.

Now might be a good time to buy low on Vazquez, but don’t expect an ERA anywhere close to the 2.87 mark he posted last year in Atlanta.

Brennan Boesch had one of the two RBI in Wednesday’s game, as the 25-year-old went 1-for-3 in the doubleheader’s first leg. He added two more hits in the night cap, raising his batting average to .352 with two HRs and 15 RBI in 15 games with the Tigers this season. (For more on Boesch, click here )

Other notes from around the league:

 

HITTERS

Hitter of the day: Miguel Olivo (5-for-5, R, HR, RBI)

Miguel Olivo busted out of his 2-for-28 slump Wednesday, going 5-for-5 with a walk-off solo homer in the tenth inning to beat the Phillies. Olivo’s five-hit game raised his average to .274. The 31-year-old backstop also has six homers and 14 RBI in 23 games this season.

Mark Teixeira went 2-for-9 in Wednesday’s doubleheader with a run scored and three RBI. After a horrific April, the notorious slow starting Teixeira has rebounded in May, batting .319 with with four homers and 16 RBI through 11 games.

• Nationals’ right fielder Roger Bernadina went 3-for-5 with two homers (the first two of his career) and three RBI Wednesday. Despite this mini power surge, the 25-year-old has average power at best. According to Baseball America, “ his best tool is his plus-plus speed,” which allowed him to steal 188 bases in nine minor-league seasons .

Through 13 games, Bernadina is batting .263 with two steals. While he’s not likely to maintain a high average, BA compares him to teammate Nyjer Morgan. He’s worth a look in deep leagues, as he could end up being a cheap source for steals.

Brooks Conrad went 2-for-5 with a HR and four RBI filling in for Chipper Jones on Wednesday. The late-inning defensive sub is batting .250 in 24 at-bats (22 games) this season. Despite his heroic efforts, he has no fantasy value.  

• In his second game batting third in the Braves’ lineup, rookie sensation Jason Heyward went 1-for-3 with two walks, three runs, an RBI, and a stolen base. Through 30 games, the 20-year-old is batting .301/.431/.613 with 20 runs, eight homers, and 28 RBI.

Call me crazy, but Heyward looks capable of a Pujols-like rookie season on his way to top-25 status. If you landed the phenom in your draft, congratulations. To everyone else: good luck trying to trade for him.

Juan Pierre went 2-for-4 on Wednesday with a run a two steals. The 32-year-old has a four-game multi-hit streak, which has raised his average to .252. If he can maintain a .280 average this season, Pierre appears primed to swipe at least 40 bases for the ninth time in the last ten years.

• Starlin Castro hit second in the Cubs’ lineup for the first time on Wednesday. He responded with two hits and a run, raising his average through six games to .364. (For more on Castro, click here )

 

PITCHERS

Pitcher of the day: Homer Bailey (W, CG, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K)

• One day after teammate Johnny Cueto one-hit the Pirates, Reds’ pitcher Homer Bailey tossed a four-hit shutout, striking out six and walking none.

Despite a 5.66 ERA through seven starts, there is still hope for the recently-turned 24-year-old. Bailey’s strikeout rate is slightly up from last year, while his walk rate is down. He’s also throwing first-pitch strikes at an encouraging rate. In addition to this, Bailey’s xFIP is more than a full run lower than his ERA, suggesting good things to come.

He’s not yet reliable in most leagues, but Bailey warrants “watch” status for now.

Phil Hughes continued his early-season dominance Wednesday night, as the Yankees’ young hurler pitched seven shutout innings in the second game of the doubleheader, allowing five hits and one walk while fanning eight.

It’s easy to get excited over Hughes’ start, as the 23-year-old boasts a 1.38 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 9.00 K/9 and 3.23 BB/9 through 39 innings thus far. Don’t, however, ignore his ridiculously low BABIP (.228) and unsustainable strand rate (86.7 percent). Hughes may be on the verge of fantasy stardom, but he’s not this good. Not yet, at least.

Carl Pavano continued his impressive start Wednesday, yielding two runs on six hits and a walk in seven innings against the White Sox. He also struck out four while picking up his fourth win in seven starts.

Pavano’s 3.30 ERA and 1.10 WHIP are impressive enough, but if you toss out his lone beat down against Kansas City on April 18, his ERA would be a sparkling 2.09. The 34-year-old is pounding the strike zone with a 69.6 first-strike rate , while his xFIP (3.61) and BABIP (.298) support his dazzling numbers thus far. Perhaps what’s most impressive is Pavano’s 1.76 walk rate (seven walks in 46 1/3 innings).

His stellar start is no joke; Pavano should be owned in all leagues.

• Like Pavano, Shaun Marcum has been surprisingly good thus far. The 28-year-old shutout the Red Sox on Wednesday, allowing just two hits and one walk in seven innings while fanning six. Through eight starts (55 innings), Marcum is 2-1 with a 2.78 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and an impressive 42/12 K/BB ratio.

Unlike Pavano, however, Marcum’s .241 BABIP and 3.79 xFIP suggest he’s probably not quite this good. Marcum proved to be effective in 2008, and his Tommy John surgery later that year appears to have made him better. For this reason, he’s not necessarily a sell-high option; just don’t expect a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP all year.

• David Price won his fifth game of the season Wednesday night against the Angels, allowing three runs (two earned) on seven hits and three walks. He also struck out six. With a 2.03 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 39/17 K/BB ratio in 48 2/3 innings thus far, Price appears primed to join Phil Hughes and Clay Buchholz in the A.L. East’s new era of dominant pitching.

Like Hughes, however, note Price’s low BABIP (.251) and concerning xFIP (3.88). He’s going to be very good, but don’t expect this kind of production all season.

Derek Holland made his 2010 debut Wednesday night, shutting out Oakland on five hits and a walk in six innings. The 23-year-old southpaw also struck out seven. Holland possesses front line starter potential, but probably won’t be as good as the aforementioned Hughes and Price this season. He’s worth a look in 12-team leagues, however, and he is probably already owned in keeper/dynasty formats.

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Phillies’ Closer Brad Lidge To Visit Team Doctor, Who Will Replace Him?

Knee and elbow surgeries during the off season delayed Brad Lidge’s 2010 debut. After recording his first save of the season on Monday, it appeared as though the Phillies’ closer was finally back.

Following a light game of catch at Coors Field on Tuesday, however, Lidge is heading back to Philadelphia to visit the team doctor.

“It really didn’t go as well as I would have liked,” Lidge said, speaking of Tuesday’s throwing session.

Lidge will be unavailable for the next few days as he’s being examined by team doctors in Philly. It’s not yet known if another DL stint is in Lidge’s immediate future.

Ryan Madson would normally fill in as the team’s closer in Lidge’s absence. A broken toe, however, will keep Madson on the shelf for the next two months.

Jose Contreras has been the Phillies’ most impressive reliever thus far, making him the favorite for saves. In 11 2/3 innings this season, the 38-year-old has a 0.77 ERA and 0.60 WHIP with 15 strikeouts and one walk. He may be unavailable for Wednesday’s doubleheader, however, as he pitched on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

Phillies management hinted on Tuesday that Danys Baez may get a chance to close as well. Baez is 1-1 with 6.43 ERA and 1.36 through 14 innings thus far, but has the most closing experience with 114 career saves to his name.

Chad Durbin’s performances makes him a candidate to close as well, but Contreras is the guy to add for now. Keep an eye on this situation as more information surfaces. If Lidge is forced to the DL again, Contreras becomes a must add in all leagues.

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight, May 10: Who the Heck Is Brennan Boesch?

After a brief Mother’s Day weekend break, Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight is back with everything you need to know from Monday night’s action…

 

HITTERS

Hitter of the day: Carlos Ruiz (4-for-5, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI)

• Lost in the potent Phillies lineup is the hot-hitting Carlos Ruiz . The 31-year-old catcher extended his hit streak to six games Monday night, going 4-for-5 with two runs, a HR and two RBI. Through 27 games this season, Ruiz is batting .350 with two homers and 12 RBI.

Ruiz’s unsustainable BABIP (.393) explains the inflated average, but his excellent plate discipline (21 walks compared with 16 strikeouts) suggests he can be useful in 14-team leagues this season.

Mark Teixeira went 1-for-5 with a HR Monday night, his fourth in the last three games. After a lowly April which saw the Yankees’ first basemen hit .136, Teixeira has raised his average to .202 with six dingers and 22 RBI in 31 games this season. The window to buy-low on the perennial 30-HR, 100-RBI slugger has likely closed.

Victor Martinez also appears to breaking out of his early-season slump, as the Boston catcher/designated hitter went 1-for-5 with three RBI Monday night. Through 10 games this month, Martinez is batting .275 (11-for-40) with two homers and 12 RBI. Don’t let his slow April fool you; 2010 should produce Martinez’s fourth career 20-HR, 100-RBI season.

• Brennan Boesch has been a pleasant surprise for the Detroit Tigers  in place of the injured Carlos Guillen. With his 2-for-3, three RBI performance Monday night, the 25-year-old right fielder raised his batting average to .340 (16-for-47) with two homers and 14 RBI in 13 games this season.

Unfortunately for Boesch owners, Guillen is likely to begin a rehab assignment sometime this week. His return could force Boesch back to Triple-A, where he hit .379/.455/.621 with three bombs and 17 RBI in 15 games before his promotion.

Alex Gonzalez continues to impress, as the Toronto shortstop went 2-for-4 with two runs Monday night against the Red Sox. In 34 games, Gonzalez is batting .270 with 10 HRs and 27 RBI, and has a hit in eight of his last nine games.

Gonzalez’s unreasonably high HR/FB rate of 18.2 percent (career 8.2 percent) explains his lofty HR total. This makes the 33-year-old an obvious sell-high candidate, as he owns a career .248 batting average and hasn’t topped 16 HRs in a season since 2004.

Ivan Rodriguez continued his surprising start to the 2010 season Monday, going 4-for-4. The Nationals’ catcher is now batting .393 with 13 RBI in 25 games this season. Pudge’s batting average will falter as his current .400 BABIP evens out, but he should still remain a decent option in deep leagues.

Nyjer Morgan owners were treated to two hits and two steals Monday night, as the speedy center fielder snapped his 10-game stolen base drought. He’s not the most efficient runner (57 percent this year, 68 percent career), but the 29-year-old  is a career .298 hitter, and is capable of approaching 90 runs and 40 steals this season with the Nationals.

Rod Barajas leads all catchers with nine homers, but has flirted with the Mendoza Line all season. The 34-year-old backstop went 2-for-4 Monday night, however, raising his batting average to .244.

Barajas has proven pop in his bat (21 HRs in 2005, 19 HRs in 2009), but his ridiculous FB rate (71.1 percent) and HR/FB rate (16.7 percent) are unsustainable. He might finish the season with 20 homers, but that equates to less than three per month the rest of the way. Barajas is a decent sell-high option.

Chris Coghlan is starting to show signs of life, as the 2009 N.L. Rookie of the Year recorded his first extra-base hit and his fourth steal of the season Monday night. He now has a hit in each of his last four starts.

Alfonso Soriano extended his hit-streak to nine games Monday night with a three-hit, two-RBI effort against the Marlins. Fonzy is now batting .340 with 17 runs, seven homers, and 20 RBI, but will continue to receive routine days off as the Cubs try to find playing time for Tyler Colvin.

Martin Prado ’s recently quiet bat awoke Monday night, as the Braves’ second baseman went 2-for-5 with a HR and five RBI. Through 32 games this season, Prado is batting .315 with 20 runs, two homers and 12 RBI. He’s making a case to be considered as a top-10 player at his position.

Casey McGehee went 2-for-4 with two RBI and his second homer in as many days Monday night. The 27-year-old third baseman is now batting .310 with seven homers and 30 RBI in 30 games this season.

While McGehee’s 162-RBI pace is unsustainable, he will continue to get plenty of opportunities batting fifth behind Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. It’s time to start taking this guy seriously, as he’s making a push for top-five status at a declining third base position.  

Andre Ethier continues to tear the cover off the ball, as the Dodgers’ right fielder went 3-for-5 with a run and two RBI Monday night. The N.L.’s triple-crown leader is batting .393 with 10 homers and 34 RBI in 30 games thus far.

The 28-year-old, coming off a breakout season is very good, but he’s not this good. Ethier’s .373 BABIP and 29.4 HR/FB rate will gradually drop, making him a decent sell-high candidate. Even still, Ethier is likely to post his second straight 30-HR, 100-RBI season.

 

PITCHERS

Pitcher of the day: Tommy Hanson (W, 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, BB, 8 K)

Tommy Hanson dazzled the Brewers Monday night, tossing eight scoreless against the N.L.’s most potent lineup. The 23-year-old second-year pitcher allowed just four hits and one walk while fanning eight. Through seven starts (43 innings) this season, Hanson boasts a 2.83 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 46/16 K/BB ratio.

Hanson’s early success does not make him a sell-high candidate. In fact, he’s a buy-low option if anything, as the young hurler is only going to get better. A 3.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts are both definite possibilities this season.

• After receiving a pounding last week in his third career start, Luis Atilano bounced back with 5.1 shutout innings against the hot-hitting Mets Monday night. The 25-year-old birthday boy allowed five hits and two walks, lowering his WHIP to 1.57. His ERA after four starts, however, stands at a respectable 3.57.

Atilano is now 3-0, but his peripherals (12 strikeouts, six walks in 22.2 innings) serve as a warning to fantasy managers. Don’t add him in 14-team leagues just yet, as Atilano is scheduled to pitch at Colorado this weekend. If all goes well, you can then safely graduate him from “watch” status. (For more on Atilano, click here .)

• The Angels roughed up Matt Garza Monday night, scoring four runs on seven hits in Garza’s seven innings of work. The Rays’ right-hander struck out seven, improving his 46/15 K/BB ratio through 50 innings thus far. Despite Monday night’s outing, the 26-year-old sports a stellar 2.49 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Garza has benefited from cupcake matchups thus far, so it’ll be interesting to see how he responds against tougher lineups as the season progresses.

Joel Pineiro continued his roller-coaster season Monday night, shutting out the Rays on five hits and one walk in 6.1 innings. The 31-year-old, who owns a mediocre 5.58 career K/9, also fanned seven.

Pineiro has five quality starts this season in which he’s posted a 1.65 ERA in 32.2 innings. In his other two starts, however, he’s been tagged for 15 earned runs in 9.1 innings.

 

RELIEVERS

• Miguel Batista picked up his first save of the season Monday night in place of closer Matt Capps , who was unavailable after pitching on Saturday and Sunday. Capps should be back in action if needed Tuesday night against the Mets.

• The ninth-inning favorite following Franklin Morales’ recent struggles, Manuel Corpas was shelled Monday night, allowing four runs on two hits and a walk in one inning. Corpas has now allowed six runs in 5.2 innings this month. Franklin Morales may get Colorado’s next few save opportunities until Huston Street ’s expected return in two weeks.

Be sure to check back for Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight updates all season long!

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What’s Wrong With Josh Beckett?

Red Sox ace Josh Beckett got rocked—again—Friday night, allowing nine earned runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Yankees, marking the third time he’s given up seven earned runs or more in a start this season.

Through seven starts (41 innings) in 2010, Beckett is 1-1 with a despicable 7.46 ERA and 1.66 WHIP.

Two of his three quality starts have come against Kansas City and Baltimore, both of which are in the bottom four in runs scored among A.L. teams. Beckett’s beat downs have come against the Rangers, Blue Jays and Yankees (twice), which on the surface might explain some of his troubles. Still, the former World Series MVP shouldn’t be this bad.

So what should Beckett owners do?

This Insider says hold him—for now.

 

 

Here’s why

 

Beckett’s unusually high .365 BABIP explains his .311 BAA and sky-high WHIP. His current strand rate (56.9 percent) is a ridiculously low number, one that is sure to approach Beckett’s career mark of 71.5 percent by season’s end.

His 4.47 FIP is three full runs lower than his current ERA, which also points to tough luck.

The factors Beckett can control, however, aren’t necessarily encouraging. His strikeout rate (7.46) is down from his career mark of 8.51. Likewise, his usually stellar walk rate (2.76 career) currently sits at 3.51.

Beckett’s average fastball velocity is down to 93.5 MPH this year from 94.7, 94.6, 94.3 and 94.1 MPH in season’s past. This gradual decline isn’t as concerning. In fact, it’s to be expected.

What’s most discouraging is Beckett’s curveball use (or lack there of) so far this season.

Since joining the Red Sox in 2006, Beckett’s yacker has accounted for nearly one-fourth of the pitches he’s thrown. In 2010, however, he’s tossing his curveball just 18.7 percent of the time.

This is worth keeping an eye on.

Beckett’s struggles thus far have relegated him to spot-start status in fantasy leagues, as he can’t be trusted with starts against the Blue Jays, Yankees and Phillies on the horizon.

Despite this, keep in mind fantasy baseball is all about value. Dumping a pitcher of Beckett’s caliber at this point would not be wise. In fact, Beckett, who owns a career 2.96 ERA during the month of September (a.k.a the fantasy playoffs) is a decent buy-low option for the audacious fantasy manager.

Beckett, who turns 30 on Saturday, should become more valuable as his luck begins to even out, though his upcoming matchups will make this an especially tough task. If you can afford to stash him away until he turns the corner, do so. Just don’t rely on him anytime soon.

FBI Forecast: 190 IP, 13 W, 170 K (8.05 K/9) 4.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

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Prospect Report: Does Cubs’ Starlin Castro Have Fantasy Value in 2010?

Cubs GM Jim Hendry called up highly-touted prospect Starlin Castro Friday morning, a move that’s been widely speculated for the past week.

The 20-year-old Castro was hitting .376/.421/.569 with 14 extra-base hits, 20 runs, 20 RBI and four steals in 26 games at Double-A Tennessee this season. In 127 games last year between High-A and Double-A , Castro hit .299/.342/.392 with 32 extra-base hits and 28 stolen bases.

The Cubs view Castro as an elite shortstop prospect, as the 2006 signee from the Dominican Republic “has drawn comparisons to Edgar Renteria, Miguel Tejada—and even Derek Jeter” according to Baseball America .

Castro makes adjustments at the plate, and doesn’t struggle against breaking pitches like most young hitters. BA notes his ability to “consistently put the barrel of the bat on the ball,” adding that scouts believe his gap power will develop as his young body physically matures.

Though he doesn’t take many walks, Castro works deep into counts and is a very good contact hitter. His plus speed makes him a threat on the base paths, adding to his value in fantasy leagues.

Castro’s presence in the Cubs’ lineup will likely bump Ryan Theriot to second base, effectively diminishing any fantasy value Jeff Baker or Mike Fontenot had. The young phenom is expected to play every day at shortstop, though his spot in the order is not yet known. Chicago may slot him in the seven or eight hole to start, and move him up near the top as he gets comfortable.

Despite the hype surrounding Castro, expectations should be kept in check. Braves’ outfielder Jason Heyward is the rare exception, not the rule. 20-year-olds normally shouldn’t be counted on as fantasy options, but Castro’s speed should give him value in 14-team leagues.

He’s a must-add in dynasty and keeper formats, as young Starlin Castro has all the tools necessary to become the Cubs’ first all-star shortstop since Shawon Dunston 20 years ago.

FBI Forecast: 400 at-bats, 60 runs, five HRs, 45 RBI, 20 stolen bases, .260 batting average

 

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight 5/5: Yankees’ Brett Gardner Ups SB Pace to 84

Game No. 22 of 162 in the Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight summer-long journey featured one of this year’s biggest surprises and a bounce-back performance from one of Oakland’s young guns…

Game No. 22 – Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics

• After surrendering eight runs (six earned) in five innings in his first start of the season last week, Trevor Cahill rebounded nicely Wednesday against the Rangers. In five innings, the 22-year-old allowed one unearned run on five hits and three walks in five innings.

Like most young pitchers, Cahill will experience many ups and downs this season. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, very few strikeouts will accompany the inconsistency, making him tough to own in shallow leagues.

• After fanning 10 batters in three of his previous four starts, and entering Wednesday’s game against the Athletics having retired the previous 22 batters he faced, the resurgent Colby Lewis allowed two RBI groundouts in the first inning. Adam Rosales then lead off the second inning with a single before Lewis retired nine consecutive batters.

Eric Patterson led off the fifth inning with an unexplainable HR on a curveball he golfed over the fence in right-center field, the last run Lewis allowed. The 30-year-old Lewis – who now leads the A.L. in strikeouts with 44 – completed six innings, allowing three runs on five hits and three walks. He also fanned six.

Apparently Lewis still thinks he’s pitching in Japan, because through six starts this season, he owns a 3.03 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He should be owned in all leagues.

Other notes from around the league:

HITTERS

Hitter of the day: Miguel Cabrera (3-for-3, BB, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI)

Miguel Cabrera went 3-for-3 with a walk and two solo HRs against the Twins on Wednesday.

The Tigers slugger is now batting .372 with seven HRs and 30 RBI through 29 games, putting him on a ridiculous 39-HR, 167-RBI pace this season. The RBI opportunities may subside as leadoff hitter Austin Jackson cools off, but a .330 average and 40 bombs isn’t out of the question, strengthening Cabrera’s case as a top-five fantasy contributor.

Adam Lind busted out of his 0-for-16 slump on Wednesday, going 2-for-4 with a go-ahead (and eventual game-winning) two-run HR. Despite his .252 average and alarming 27.9 strikeout rate, the 26-year-old Lind still has 14 runs, five HRs and 16 RBI through 29 games.

Brett Gardner went 1-for-3 with a run and a stolen base Wednesday, extending his hit-streak to eight games.

Through 25 games this season, Gardner is hitting .346 with 22 runs and 13 steals. Now eligible in left and center field, the 26-year-old speedster appears primed for a breakout season. In a loaded Yankees lineup, 100 runs and 50 steals cannot be ruled out.

• Giants’ leadoff hitter Aaron Rowand homered for the second time in two nights in his third game since returning from the DL Wednesday night. In those three games, Rowand is 5-for-14 (.357) with the aforementioned two HRs and five RBI. Don’t expect the mini power surge to continue, but he’s worth owning in 14-team leagues.

David Ortiz went 2-for-3 with his third HR in his last four games Wednesday night. Despite this, Big Papi now finds himself in a mini platoon at DH with Mike Lowell and Victor Martinez. 25 HRs may still be attainable, but a killer average is sure to follow. The 34-year-old’s days as a premier power-hitter are long gone.

Carlos Lee went 1-for-4 with two RBI and his first HR of the season Wednesday night. Since teammate Lance Berkman returned to the Astros’ lineup on April 20, Lee has gone 15-for-52 (.288) with four multi-hit games and eight RBI. This obviously still isn’t the Carlos Lee we’re used to, but it’s a start. He remains an excellent buy-low candidate.

• Perhaps one of the most pleasant bounce-back performances thus far has come from Alex Rios, who went 2-for-3 with two runs, a HR and three RBI Wednesday night. The White Sox’ center fielder is now batting .309 with 12 runs, four HRs, 14 RBI and nine steals in 25 games this season.

Given a summer at U.S. Cellular Field and the potential in Chicago’s lineup possesses, Rios is likely to post 20 HRs and steals 30 bases, a combo that fantasy managers have been expecting for several years.

PITCHERS

Pithcer of the day: Kyle Kendrick (W, 7 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 K)

Kyle Kendrick turned in a true head-scratcher on Wednesday, tossing seven six-hit shutout innings against the Cardinals, lowering his ERA and WHIP to 5.87 and 1.53, respectively. The 25-year-old should be used only sparingly in deep leagues as favorable matchups present themselves.

Andy Pettitte lasted just five innings against the Orioles on Wednesday, his shortest outing of the season. He was removed after experiencing tightness in his left elbow, which the Yankees are calling “mild inflammation.”

The 37-year-old Pettitte moved to 4-0, allowing just one run on six hits and two walks. He’s expected to make his next scheduled start Tuesday against Detroit.

Barry Zito tossed his sixth consecutive quality start to begin the season on Wednesday, allowing one run on seven hits and one walk against the Marlins. Zito, who turns 32 next week, is now 5-0 with a 1.49 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 42 2/3 innings.

2009 proved he can still be serviceable, but this is ridiculous. Zito’s .228 BABIP and 82.1 percent strand rate, however, are simply unsustainable. If there’s anyone in your league who believes Zito’s early success will continue, flip him for a more consistent option and don’t look back.

Cliff Lee’s line in his second start of the season looks worse than it actually was. Through seven innings Lee had allowed just two runs on six hits and zero walks. A few base hits and an error in an ill-advised eighth, however, left Lee with a line that reads: eight innings, ten hits, five runs (four earned), zero walks and five strikeouts.

Through 15 innings (all at home) against the Rangers and Rays this season, Lee has a 2.40 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and a 13/0 K/BB ratio. His next start at Baltimore will an interesting one, but his real test should come during the May 14-16 series at Tampa Bay.

RELIEVERS

• Indians’ closer Chris Perez blew a two-run lead in the ninth against the Blue Jays on Wednesday without allowing an earned run. Perez induced two quick groundouts before allowing a double off the bat of Fred Lewis. The game appeared to be over as Aaron Hill hit a grounder to shortstop Luis Valbuena who bobbled the ball, allowing Lewis to score from second. Adam Lind took advantage of the error, slugging an opposite-field two-run blast to give Toronto the lead and Perez the tough-luck blown save.

Perez is expected to lose the Indians’ save opportunities once Kerry Wood returns from the DL in the next week or two. However, Perez should be owned until Wood proves he is healthy again and can handle the role.

• With both Mariano Rivera and Joba Chamberlain unavailable on Wednesday, Alfredo Aceves picked up the one-out save against Baltimore. Yankees’ manager Joe Girardi said Mo could have pitched, but with an off day on Thursday, he elected to give the 40-year-old an extra two days off. Rivera should be available to close for the weekend series at Boston.

Franklin Morales walked two batters without recording an out in a tie game Wednesday night before Manny Corpas came in to clean up the mess. Ian Stewart’s walk-off solo HR in the 12th gave Corpas, who pitched 2 2/3 scoreless innings, his first win of the season.

In fairness to Morales, most of his recent struggles have come in tie games, as he hasn’t seen a save opportunity since April 22. Fair or not, Wednesday’s performance may have shut the door on Morales’ future save opportunities, though Huston Street’s expected return from the DL later next week would have done the trick as well. Nothing is official, but Corpas is probably the ninth-inning favorite until Street returns.

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2010 Projections: Why You Should Buy Low on Phillies’ Cole Hamels

After Tuesday night’s gem against St. Louis, Phillies’ starter Cole Hamels lowered his season ERA to a less than desirable 4.42. His stellar 44/12 K/BB ratio and 2.79 BB/9, however, suggests more success is on the horizon.

Through 38 2/3 innings thus far, Hamels has fallen victim to a .356 BABIP, which explains his sky-high 1.42 WHIP. A similiarly high BABIP (.325) plagued Hamels in 2009 as well, as the 2002 first-rounder posted a career-high 4.32 ERA.

Despite this, Hamels’ 2009 peripherals (7.81 K/9, 2.00 BB/9) were in line with his career totals of 8.47 and 2.31.

One major difference from 2008 to 2009 was Hamels’ o-swing rate-the percentage of pitches an opposing batter swings at outside the strike zone. In 2008, Hamels coaxed whiffs on pitches outside the zone a whopping 30.8 percent of the time (the league average that year was 25.4 percent). In 2009, that number dropped to 26.8 percent.

This could mean one of two things. Either Hamels’ stuff wasn’t quite as nasty last year, or perhaps he was pitching too well. Through six starts in 2010, his o-swing rate is back up to 31.6 percent, leading this Insider to believe the 2008 version of Hamels will emerge this season.

Hamels’ 2009 FIP (3.72) also suggests a bounce-back season is likely. Don’t forget that Hamels posted ace-like ERAs of 3.39 and 3.09 in 2007 and 2008, respectively, as well as WHIPs of 1.12 and 1.08 to go along with the aforementioned strikeout and walk rates.

Given his fourth straight season with no less than 180 innings, Hamels is capable of approaching 200 strikeouts and a 3.50 ERA, making him an excellent buy-low candidate.

FBI Forecast: 200 IP, 14 W, 185 K (8.3 K/9), 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight 5/4: Is Yankees’ AJ Burnett Really This Good?

Game No. 21 on the Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight 162-game journey featured a pitcher’s duel between two of the N.L.’s most potent lineups.

Game No. 21 – St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Adam Wainwright was his usual dominant self Tuesday night against the Phillies, allowing just one run on four hits and two walks in eight innings. He also struck out six.

The 28-year-old is now 5-1 with a 1.96 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a 36/10 K/BB ratio in 46 innings thus far. With his performance thus far, Wainwright is making a strong case to be considered a top-five fantasy pitcher.

• After allowing 10 runs in his two previous starts at Arizona and at San Francisco, Cole Hamels regained his 2008 form Tuesday night at home against the Cardinals. In eight-plus innings, the former World Series MVP allowed eight hits and one walk while fanning eight. The only run he allowed was on an RBI double off the bat of Yadier Molina with no outs in the ninth.

This was just his second quality start in six outings this season, and Hamels’ ERA is now 4.42. His K/BB (44/12), however, is an encouraging sign. Look for a Fantasy Baseball Insiders featured post later this week, analyzing Hamels’ chances at a bounce-back season in 2010.

Brad Lidge relieved Hamels in the ninth, inheriting Molina on second base with the score tied 1-1. Lidge induced a groundout before intentionally walking pinch-hitter Colby Rasmus. He then retired the next two batters, registering his second scoreless inning in as many nights.

With Ryan Madson on the DL for the next two months, Lidge is the Phillies’ only ninth-inning option.

• The starting catchers in this game (Yadier Molina and Carlos Ruiz) accounted for five of the 14 hits recorded. Ruiz provided all of Philly’s offense for the night, scoring Raul Ibanez on a sac fly in the seventh before launching a walk-off HR in the tenth.

Other notes from around the league:

 

HITTERS

Hitter of the day: Ryan Sweeney (3-for-4, R, HR, 5 RBI)

• Athletics’ right fielder Ryan Sweeney went 3-for-4 with his first HR of the season and a whopping five RBI Tuesday night. Oakland’s No. 3 hitter is now batting .303 with 16 runs and 16 RBI this season.

The 25-year-old left-handed hitter has hit for a high average (.284 career) in his two-plus seasons in the majors. His power stroke, however, has yet to develop. Until it does, Sweeney’s fantasy value remains limited.

Alfonso Soriano went yard again Tuesday night, his fifth HR in the last four games. During this time, the 34-year-old has hit .533 (8-for-12) with seven runs and 11 RBI.

Soriano is no longer a buy-low candidate as I mentioned two weeks ago , but the last few games should remind fantasy managers what he’s still capable of. Recent history says he’ll miss a few weeks due to injury, but Soriano can really carry a team when he heats up like this. 25 HRs, 90 RBI and a .280 average is well within reach for the Cubs’ number six hitter.

Brandon Phillips went 2-for-4 with his third HR of the season Tuesday night. Since being moved from fourth to second in the Reds’ lineup on April 27, Phillips is 10-for-32 (.312), raising his average from .208 to .248.

Hanley Ramirez went 3-for-6 with two runs, a HR and three RBI Tuesday night. The Marlins’ shortstop has exactly three hits in each of his last three games, with four HRs and 10 RBI during that span. His status as the second-most valuable player in fantasy baseball remains in tact.

Juan Pierre stole his major-league leading 12th and 13th bases of the season Tuesday night against the Royals. Despite this, the White Sox’s leadoff hitter is hitting a paltry .218, a number that is sure to rise.

Keep in mind, Pierre is a career .299 hitter. If Pierre’s current owner is frustrated with his pedestrian batting clip, shoot him an offer and cross your fingers, as Pierre appears capable of 100 runs and 40 steals with regular playing time this season.

• Vladimir Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a HR and five RBI Tuesday night, raising his season average to .333. Guerrero, who should gain outfield eligibility in Yahoo! leagues within the next few days, now has three HRs, three steals and 18 RBI in 26 games.

Given 150 games in 2010, the 35-year-old remains capable of 25 HRs, 100 RBI and a .300 average.

James Loney went 1-for-4 with a HR and four RBI Tuesday night, extending his four-game hitting streak, which includes nine hits, two HRs and 10 RBI.

The Dodgers’ first baseman is now batting .330 with 16 runs, 2 HRs, 17 RBI and four steals. A career .297 hitter with 90 RBI in each of the last two seasons, Loney is a solid option at a cheap price. Just don’t expect more than 15 HRs.

 

PITCHERS

Pitcher of the day: A.J. Burnett (W, 7 1/3 IP, R, (0 ER), 2 BB, 8 K)

A.J. Burnett turned in his second consecutive impressive start Tuesday night (albeit both were against the Orioles), allowing one unearned run on five hits and two walks in 7 1/3 innings. He also struck out eight. The 33-year-old is now 4-0 with a 1.99 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and a 28/11 K/BB ratio in 40 2/3 innings this season.

While he’s always been a good source of high strikeout totals (career 8.31 K/9), the combination of pitching half his games in Yankees Stadium, and several others against the Red Sox and Rays suggest Burnett’s 2010 ERA will likely approach 4.00.

He isn’t necessarily a sell-high candidate, but back-to-back starts against Baltimore can be very misleading; he’s not quite this good.

• Livan Hernandez continued to baffle the baseball world Tuesday night, allowing just two runs (one earned) in 5 1/3 innings against the Braves. Though he did allow five hits and five walks, the 35-year-old moved to 4-1 with a 0.99 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through five starts this season. (For more on Livan Hernandez’s unbelievable start, click here .)

Tim Lincecum struck out a season-high 13 batters Tuesday night against the Giants, though he allowed three runs for the first time this season.

In seven innings, the two-time Cy Young award winner allowed five hits and one walk, raising his ERA and WHIP to 1.70 and 0.83, respectively. He now leads the majors with 56 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings thus far.

Ian Kennedy turned in his most effective outing of the season Tuesday night against a pathetic Houston lineup. In 6 2/3 innings, the former Yankees farmhand allowed no runs on eight hits and two walks, lowering his ERA from 4.45 to 3.65, though his WHIP raised from 1.05 to 1.14.

Through 37 innings this season, the 25-year-old Kennedy sports a 30/10 K/BB ratio. His true test will come in his next scheduled start against Milwaukee on Sunday.

James Shields turned in his second consecutive double-digit strikeout performance Tuesday night, as he fanned 10 Mariners en route to his fourth win of the season. In eight innings, Shields allowed two runs on eight hits and zero walks.

Through 40 innings (six starts) this season, Shields boasts a 3.15 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a surprising 43/10 K/BB ratio. He’s obviously not this good, but Shields is scheduled to face Oakland and Seattle for the second time each in his next two starts. Enjoy the ride.

 

RELIEVERS

Octavio Dotel returned to the Pirates Tuesday after attending the birth of his child over the weekend. In his first appearance in nearly a week, the Pirates’ closer pitched a scoreless ninth against the Cubs to notch his fourth save of the season.

Despite his early struggles (Dotel had allowed a run in each of his previous six appearances) the 36-year-old remains Pittsburgh’s best ninth-inning option.

Joba Chamberlain picked up his second save in as many days Tuesday night, filling in for Mariano Rivera, who has been sidelined with a stiff left side. Mo remains day-to-day, but Chamberlain is in line to pick up a few more saves should Rivera miss any more time.

Be sure to check back for more Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight updates all season long!

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight 5/3: Red Sox’ Mike Lowell Turns Back the Clock

Game number 20 of 162 in the Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight summer-long journey featured a game that provided a whopping 25 runs on 32 hits between two struggling A.L. powerhouses.

Game No. 20 Anaheim Angels vs. Boston Red Sox

Mike Lowell was the most productive hitter in Monday night’s slug fest, going 4-for-4 with three doubles, a walk, two runs and four RBI. In just his ninth start of the season, Lowell hit sixth as Boston’s DH while David Ortiz sat against Angels’ lefty Joe Saunders, who yielded seven runs on nine hits and four walks in four innings.

J.D. Drew also had four hits (three singles), scoring twice while driving in three. The 34-year-old right fielder is now 9-for-17 (.529) with six runs, three HRs and seven RBI in his last four games.

With 14 runs, five HRs, 17 RBI and a .247 batting average on the season, Drew is making a case for fantasy relevance again in 2010. He’s still an injury risk, but his price tag is likely worth the 25-HR, .280-average capability.

Dustin Pedroia was one of two Red Sox starters who failed to record two or more hits, but the former A.L. MVP made up for it with a three-run shot in the seven-run sixth inning.

With 16 runs, seven HRs, 21 RBI, two steals and a .288 batting average through 26 games, Pedroia is separating himself from the pack of second-tier second basemen.

• Boston starter Clay Buchholz cruised through the first three innings, but faltered in the fourth, an inning in which he allowed three runs on two walks and three hits. Though Boston’s bats assured him the win, Buchholz finished with his worst line of the young season: five and two thirds innings, eight hits, four runs, three walks, two strikeouts.

Through five starts, the 25 year old owns a 2.97 ERA, a sign that his ace potential may finally surface in 2010. His 1.42 WHIP, however, is a slight cause for concern.

• Angels’ first baseman Kendry Morales collected three hits (all singles) and scored once while adding his 17th RBI of the season. With six HRs and a .323 average through 27 games, the 27 year old appears determined to prove his 2009 campaign wasn’t a fluke.

Other notes from around the league:

HITTERS

Hitter of the day: Mike Lowell (4-for-4, BB, two R, four RBI–mentioned above)

David Freese continued his torrid hitting, going 2-for-5 with a run and three RBI Monday night. The Cardinals’ third basemen is batting 14-for-27 (.519) with five runs, three HRs and a whopping 14 RBI during his current seven-game hitting streak.

The 27 year old, who was acquired from San Diego for Jim Edmonds in 2007, has hit for a high average at each level, boasting a career .308 mark in the minors. Scouts remain unsure of his true power potential, though Freese did slug 26 HRs at the Triple-A level in 2008.

He’s not likely to top 20 dingers in his rookie season, but a solid average will improve his fantasy value. Batting in a potent St. Louis lineup, Freese has the opportunity to have a breakout season in 2010.

Chris Young continued his uncharacteristic ways Monday night, as he went 3-for-5 with three RBI, raising his average to .300. The Diamondbacks’ center fielder now has four HRs and 24 RBI through 25 games this season.

Young possesses one of the most exciting power/speed combos in the game, but his career .238 batting average over three-plus seasons will limit his fantasy value. He’s a great sell-high candidate.

Austin Jackson went 3-for-5 Monday night, raising his average to .377. The Tigers’ 23-year-old center fielder now has a six-game hitting streak and 14 multi-hit games through 26 contests this season. Jackson also has 22 runs and five steals a product of batting leadoff for Detroit.

Nobody expected this type of production out of Jackson this quickly, which signals a possible regression to the mean in the near future. Even so, he remains a valuable commodity in keeper and dynasty leagues.

• Rangers’ rookie Justin Smoak went 1-for-4 with his second career HR Monday night. Despite his .176 average thus far, Smoak has the potential to be fantasy relevant in 2010 and beyond. (For more on Smoak, including a 2010 projection, click here .)

PITCHERS

Pitcher of the day: Ubaldo Jimenez (W, seven IP, four H, ER, two BB, 13 K)

• In case you’ve been living under a rock for the past four weeks, let me be the first to pass along this urgent message: Ubaldo Jimenez is good.

After his 13-strikeout performance against San Diego Monday night, the 26 year old moved to 6-0 with a minuscule 0.87 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He now boasts a ridiculous 44/16 K/BB ratio through 41.1 innings, and is quickly becoming one of the most valuable starting pitchers in all of fantasy baseball.

Jaime Garcia turned in his fifth consecutive quality start to begin the season Monday night, this one against the Phillies. The 23-year-old southpaw allowed just one run on three hits and four walks while striking out six. He exited the game on a high note, fanning Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to end the sixth inning.

Garcia—the Cardinals’ No. 2 prospect before this season according to Baseball America —now sports a 1.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with a 23/13 K/BB ratio in 32 innings thus far. Like teammate David Freese , Garcia appears primed for a breakout campaign, though Garcia has a much higher upside. He should be owned in all leagues.

• In his third start since being promoted from Triple A earlier this season, Blue Jays’ starter Brett Cecil took a perfect game into the seventh against the run-starved Indians Monday night. The 23-year-old southpaw was lifted after eight innings, yielding one run on one hit and two walks, while striking out a career-high 10 batters.

Three years after being drafted as a first-round supplemental pick by Toronto, Cecil owns a 2.61 ERA and 0.77 WHIP through 20.2 innings. He also boasts an impressive 21/four K/BB ratio. Cecil’s fastball/slider combo has been aided by the development of his change-up, a pitch that’s led to his early success.

Cecil’s performance has almost certainly earned him a permanent spot in the rotation, a move that would force injured starter Brian Tallet to the bullpen upon his return from the DL. With effective outings against the White Sox and Rangers in his next two starts, Cecil will be a must-own in all leagues.

• Reds’ rookie Mike Leake turned in his fourth quality start in five tries, allowing two runs (one earned) on four hits and one walk in six innings against the Mets Monday night. The 22 year old, who was the eighth pick in last year’s draft, now boasts a 2.94 ERA through 33.2 innings. His 22/16 BB/K ratio is definitely concerning, though he’s issued just four free passes in his last three starts.

Leake has had the benefit of pitching against the likes of Chicago, Pittsburgh and Houston, but given his pedigree and performance thus far, he’s a must-add in 12-team leagues.

Jake Peavy produced his best outing of the season by far Monday night, shutting out the Royals on four hits and one walk in seven innings. The soon-to-be 29 year old also struck out a season-high nine batters.

Despite this stellar outing, Peavy still owns a 6.31 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with a 31/20 K/BB ratio through 35.2 innings this season. His elevated walk rate and home ballpark factors are likely to prevent Peavy from returning to his former ace status in 2010.

Rich Harden went seven innings for the first time this season on Monday night, allowing no runs on two hits and no walks. He also fanned a season-high nine batters.

Through six starts this season, Harden owns a 3.52 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, with a 31/23 K/BB ratio in 30 2/3 innings. Much like the aforementioned Peavy, Harden’s elevated walk rate and home ballpark factors (in addition to a DL stint at some point this season) are likely to prevent him from reaching his full potential in 2010.

RELIEVERS

• Joba Chamberlain picked up the save in relief of CC Sabathia Monday night against the Orioles, while Yankees’ closer Mariano Rivera was unavailable due to stiffness in his left side. Mo is listed as day-to-day.

Neftali Feliz recorded his sixth save of the season Monday night thanks to Frank Francisco , who allowed a two-run bomb to Kevin Kouzmanoff in the ninth, cutting the Texas lead to two. Feliz is clearly the favorite for saves at the moment, but this situation is likely to be a hot issue all season long.

Be sure to check back for more Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight updates all season long!

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