Kuzul

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Shane Victorino posted a career-high 18 HRs in 2010, but his career-low .259 batting average is what’s scaring away fantasy managers this season. His current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 138, a far cry from where his three-year averages (see below) indicate he should be.

Victorino’s .273 BABIP last season suggests some poor luck, though his career-high fly-ball percentage (37.6 percent, career 35.1 percent) may indicate a slight change in his swing, not his luck. Fortunately, his batted ball rates weren’t too far off the norm, so a bounce-back performance in 2011 is within reason.

The Flyin’ Hawaiian’s 2011 value will rely heavily on his spot in the Phillies’ lineup. While over half his 2010 at-bats came in the leadoff spot, the switch-hitter is currently slated to bat fifth behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.

Of course, if Utley’s knee injury shelves him for any significant amount of time, that could change. If not, Jimmy Rollins’ struggles in recent seasons are likely to keep the Phillies’ lineup a fluid situation.

For now, I’ll project Victorino as the No. 5 hitter. This will limit his run-scoring opportunities but should lead to a small spike in RBI. He’s likely to steal 25 to 35 steals, either way.

Victorino leads the third-tier of outfielders with unique 20/30 potential and won’t hurt your team’s batting average.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
• No. 71: Francisco Liriano
• No. 72: Tommy Hanson
• No. 73: Brian Roberts

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles
• Boston Red Sox

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

From 2005 to 2009, Brian Roberts established himself as one of the most reliable and productive second basemen in fantasy baseball, posting an average season of: 598 at-bats, 99 runs, 13 HRs, 64 RBI, 37 steals, and a .294 batting average.

In 2010, Roberts was limited to just 59 games due to neck and back injuries, effectively destroying Baltimore’s offensive fantasy value.

Roberts made his spring debut last Tuesday, and appears ready to go. Given a full season atop Baltimore’s revamped lineup, the 33-year-old could be in for a big season. At least seven Orioles starters have the ability to hit 20 HRs this season, while Guerrero, Reynolds and Scott are all expected to push for 30. Furthermore, six of Baltimore’s projected nine starting hitters have either a career batting average above .280 or hit at least that last season.

Bottom line: Roberts should score a whole bunch of runs. In addition to his solid average, double-digit power and 30-steal wheels, he should re-emerge as a valuable fantasy asset. Fortunately, others have yet to notice. Roberts’ current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 129, and he ranked just outside the top 100 according to Yahoo! composite rankings. Get him now, before the rest of the fantasy baseball world realizes his true fantasy value.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
• No. 71: Francisco Liriano
• No. 72: Tommy Hanson

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles
• Boston Red Sox

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact 

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

After establishing himself as a first-half pitcher in each of his first four seasons, Jered Weaver dominated all of 2010, posting career-best totals in innings (224 1/3), K/9 (9.35) and BB/9 (2.17).

In fact, the advanced stats suggest Weaver was a completely different pitcher in 2010. Consider the following:

Strikeout Rate

2008: 7.74
2009: 7.42
2010: 9.35

Walk Rate

2008: 2.75
2009: 2.82
2010: 2.17

ERA

2008: 4.33
2009: 3.75
2010: 3.01

WHIP

2008: 1.28
2009: 1.24
2010: 1.07

Batting Average Against

2008: .253
2009: .241
2010: .220

So what was the difference between last year compared to ‘08 and ‘09? Was it luck? 

Nope.

2010 BABIP: .276 (career .283)
2010 LOB rate: 75.7 percent (career .75.5 percent)
2010 HR/FB rate: 7.8 percent (career 7.9 percent)

Heck, even Weaver’s FIP (3.06) and xFIP (3.51) suggest his 2010 campaign was legit.

There real difference appears to be in the evolution of his fastball and curveball, checking in at 13.0 and 9.7 runs above average, respectively.

When combined with his above-average slider (3.1 runs above average) and changeup (8.4 runs above average), Weaver’s pitching repertoire is one of the most dynamic  in the majors.

This, in turn, led to elite totals in the ‘that’s nasty’ pitching categories:

Contact rate: 75.4 percent (sixth)
Zone contact rate: 79.2 percent (first)
Swinging strike rate: 11.2 percent (fourth)
O-swing rate: 33.5 percent (seventh)

In projecting the 28-year-old Weaver for 2011, it’s difficult to expect him to improve further, so a slight regression could be in the works.

Judging by the advance stats, however, there’s nothing to suggest a regression to his 2008-09 form. Draft with confidence.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 (projections included): Is Pujols Still the Top Pick?
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• No. 61: Carlos Santana
• No. 62: Buster Posey
• No. 63: Kendry Morales
• No. 64: Adrian Beltre
• No. 65: Alexei Ramirez

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays; Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact 

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Yesterday, I made a bold statement that has caused an uproar from fellow fantasy baseball enthusiasts.

Simply put, I believe Carlos Santana will be a better fantasy catcher than Buster Posey in 2011 and beyond.

Keep in mind, scouts were split in their opinions of which would be the better player at this point last season. Since then, Santana has undergone knee surgery that forced him to miss the last two months of 2010. Posey, however, outperformed even his most optimistic projections last season whilst leading the Giants to their first World Series win since 1954.

It’s clear to see why most favor Posey at this point, but there’s much more to the story.

After hitting 25 HRs in 631 career minor league at-bats (25.24 AB/HR), Posey erupted with 18 HRs in 406 at-bats with the Giants last season (22.55 AB/HR). Thirty-three percent of Posey’s HRs last season qualified as “just enough” according to Hit Tracker Online, slightly above the league average.

This suggests that perhaps a small amount of luck aided his 2010 HR total.

Further, Posey’s strikeout rate (13.5 percent) was incredibly low (MLB average 20.7 percent) considering his minor league totals:

• 2009 (High-A): 15.5 percent
• 2009 (Triple-A): 17.6 percent
• 2010 (Triple-A): 17.4 percent

This, in turn, helped produce an incredible 83.4 percent contact rate (MLB average 80.7 percent), which ultimately resulted in a .315 batting average for the 23-year-old rookie.

I know the kid is good, but this good, this soon? I’m not buying it.

Posey’s home/away splits last season reiterated the fact that AT&T Park is one of the least home run-friendly stadiums in the majors—and hints at why he was so successful overall.

• Home: 198 ABs, six HRs, .258/.304/.419
• Away: 208 ABs, 12 HRs, .351/.406/.587

Posey was actually a below average hitter at home last season, while his unrealistic road splits were aided by a .367 BABIP and 19.7 HR/FB rate.

Look, I’m not hating on Posey. He’s a bright, young star who carries himself like a veteran. His leadership and makeup are off the charts.

Unfortunately, his 2010 rookie campaign was simply too good to be true. Looking forward, Posey is a player who is more valuable to his MLB team than to his fantasy teams.

Expect a regression to the norm at the plate from Posey in his first full season as the Giants’ catcher. Even so, he should still produce solid HR and RBI totals while hitting for an average that wont hurt your team.

He’s the fifth catcher on our 2011 big board, No. 62 overall.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 (projections included): Is Pujols Still the Top Pick?
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• No. 61: Carlos Santana

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact 

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

A year ago, I claimed Jay Bruce would hit 35 HRs and be a top-50 player heading into the 2011 season. Perhaps I was a tad bit enthusiastic with those predictions, but Bruce actually appears on the brink of both of those claims this season.

In 2008, Baseball America claimed “every one of Bruce’s tools is better than average.” They rated his power as high as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, acknowledged his ability to hit for average, and even proclaimed Bruce capable of stealing 15 to 20 bases a season.

To give you an idea of Bruce’s power potential, consider this: his career AB/HR rate is 18.63, a hair below Miguel Cabrera’s AB/HR rate of 18.09.

2010 saw Bruce’s walk rate increase for the third consecutive season. While his contact rate (career 73.7 percent) is less than appealing, Bruce hinted at his ability to hit for a respectable average last season, just as scouts once predicted. Given his second consecutive full season, Bruce should blast no less than 30 HRs this season to go along with a batting average that won’t hurt your team.

If Bruce’s 2010 second-half splits (15 HRs, 34 RBI, .306/.376/.575) are any indication, he’s in for a big season batting fourth or fifth in a potent Reds lineup.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 (projections included): Is Pujols Still the Top Pick?
• No. 51: Ubaldo Jimenez
• No. 52: Rickie Weeks
• No. 53: Derek Jeter
• No. 54: Adam Dunn
• No. 55: Justin Morneau
• No. 56: Justin Verlander
• No. 57: Chris Carpenter
• No. 58: CC Sabathia

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Despite posting a sub-3.40 ERA for the fifth consecutive season in 2010, CC Sabathia’s peripheral stats uncover some alarming trends. Much like fellow southpaw Johan Santana after his age-27 season, Sabathia has regressed in several statistical categories over the last three seasons.

In 2007, Santana’s age-27 season, many of his peripheral stats began to trend in the wrong direction. They were almost unnoticeable, however, because the starting point was so high.

• 2007 to 2010 strikeout rate: 9.66, 7.91, 7.88, 6.51
• 2007 to 2010 walk rate: 2.14, 2.42, 2.48, 2.49
• 2007 to 2010 WHIP: 1.07, 1.15, 1.21, 1.18
• 2007 to 2010 contact rate: 73.2, 77.0, 78.4, 81.6
• 2007 to 2010 swinging strike rate: 14.0, 11.4, 11.3, 9.2

Now on to Sabathia. If you’re a Yankees fan or own Sabathia in your fantasy league, I hope you’re sitting down.

• 2008 to 2010 strikeout rate: 8.93, 7.71, 7.46
• 2008 to 2010 walk rate: 2.10, 2.62, 2.80
• 2008 to 2010 home run rate: 0.68, 0.70, 0.76
• 2008 to 2010 FIP: 2.91, 3.39, 3.54
• 2008 to 2010 WHIP: 1.11, 1.15, 1.19
• 2008 to 2010 contact rate: 72.0, 76.3, 79.4
• 2008 to 2010 first strike rate: 63.9, 58.2, 57.6
• 2008 to 2010 swinging strike rate: 13.9, 11.2, 9.4

Sabathia is at or around the MLB average in most of these categories, so I’m not necessarily suggesting a full-blown flop in 2011. Rather, Sabathia is slowly trending in the wrong direction in many important statistical categories and fantasy managers need to take notice.

His three-year averages are incredible and he’s never logged less than 180 innings in 10 major league seasons, which includes a current streak of four consecutive 230-inning seasons.

However, his strikeout, walk and contact rates (most notably) have crept into mediocrity. Will he be a bad pitcher to own in 2011? No. But his value will likely never be higher.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 (projections included): Is Pujols Still the Top Pick?
• No. 51: Ubaldo Jimenez
• No. 52: Rickie Weeks
• No. 53: Derek Jeter
• No. 54: Adam Dunn
• No. 55: Justin Morneau
• No. 56: Justin Verlander
• No. 57: Chris Carpenter

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Ready to be blown away?

Since 2005, only one major league pitcher (with at least 900 innings) has an ERA lower than that of Roy Halladay. It’s not Johan Santana. Or Roy Oswalt. Or CC Sabathia. Or Felix Hernandez.

Give up?

Over the last six seasons, no qualifying pitcher has an ERA lower than Chris Carpenter’s mark of 2.88. His dominance has come despite missing all but four starts between 2007 and 2008 due to Tommy John surgery, and he’s still posting ridiculous numbers.

But nobody seems to notice.

Carpenter’s current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 95, while Rotowire ranks him 120 overall. The Yahoo! composite rankings have him just outside of the top 100.

Both Matthew Berry and I, however, rank Carpenter inside the top 60.

Why such a high ranking for the 35-year-old starter (he’ll turn 36 in late April).

Despite falling victim to the sub-2.50 curse last season, Carpenter’s ERA (3.22) ranked 23rd among qualifying pitchers, just behind Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia and just ahead of Jon Lester and Tommy Hanson.

Carpenter’s strikeout totals are average, but his walk rate was above 1.90 last year for the first time since his first season as a Cardinal in 2004. This has allowed him to post stellar WHIP totals.

Carpenter’s go-to pitch – his hammer curve – was better than it’s ever been in 2010, clocking in at 12.8 runs above average (fourth best in the majors).

His contact, first strike and swinging strike rates are all right at the league average, but for Carpenter, that has never mattered.

Expect a sixth-consecutive sub-3.50 ERA (minus the two years he missed to injury, of course) from Carpenter in 2011. He’s no longer a sexy pick, but he’s well worth the price.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 (projections included): Is Pujols Still the Top Pick?
• No. 51: Ubaldo Jimenez
• No. 52: Rickie Weeks
• No. 53: Derek Jeter
• No. 54: Adam Dunn
• No. 55: Justin Morneau
• No. 56: Justin Verlander

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Much like Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander has given us three very different looks in the last three seasons.

In 2008, Verlander posted ugly strikeout (7.30) and walk (3.90) rates, and an even uglier ERA (4.84) on his way to losing 17 games.

In 2009, Verlander flipped the switch, setting career bests in K/9 (10.09), BB/9 (2.36), ERA (3.45) and wins (19). His FIP (2.80) and xFIP (3.26) suggested he was (and would continue to be) even better.

2010 brought a more realistic, yet still very good version of Verlander. In his fourth consecutive season logging 200-plus innings, Verlander settled in with 18 wins, a 3.37 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.79 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9. His FIP (2.97) and xFIP (3.68) didn’t suggest anything out of the ordinary.

Last season also marked the third consecutive year in which Verlander improved in these important areas:

• HR/9: 0.81 (‘08), 0.75 (‘09), 0.56 (‘10)
• Batting average against: .250 (‘08), .240 (‘09), .224 (‘10)
• WHIP: 1.40 (‘08), 1.18 (‘09), 1.16 (‘10)
• ERA: 4.48 (‘08), 3.45 (‘09), 3.37 (‘10)

The key to Verlander’s evolution appears to be his changeup, which has also shown vast improvements over the last three seasons:

• 2008: 3.2 runs above average
• 2009: 7.6 runs above average
• 2010: 12.3 runs above average

Further (as if you didn’t already know), Verlander boasts one of the most overpowering heaters in the majors. Last year his average fastball velocity was 95.4 MPH, second only to Ubaldo Jimenez.

If there are any red flags, they lie in Verlander’s recent Wandy Rodriguez-like home/road splits:

• 2009: Home (2.81 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), Road: (4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)
• 2010: Home (2.31 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), Road: (4.45 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)

I hate to rank a player with such uneven splits this high, but his home (and overall numbers, in fact) are tough to ignore. Verlander owners might want to consider benching him for tough road starts early in the season, particularly his Opening Day matchup at Yankee Stadium.

Projecting Verlander for 2011, we now (hopefully) know what to expect from him. I foresee totals very similar to what he posted in 2010, a prediction I rarely make. The 28-year-old checks in as the 12th pitcher on our 2011 big board, No. 56 overall.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 (projections included): Is Pujols Still the Top Pick?
• No. 51: Ubaldo Jimenez
• No. 52: Rickie Weeks
• No. 53: Derek Jeter
• No. 54: Adam Dunn
• No. 55: Justin Morneau

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one by one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

After 14 straight seasons of batting .290 or higher, Derek Jeter bottomed out in arguably the worst season of his career in 2010, posting a .270 batting clip. His OBP (.340), slugging percentage (.370) and OPS (.710) were also career lows.

Not coincidentally, Jeter’s .307 BABIP was by far the worst of his career and well below his notoriously high .356 career mark.

Notwithstanding, Jeter still managed to score 111 runs and steal 18 bases, numbers worthy of fantasy consideration no matter what his batting average was.

So what does 2011 have in store for the 36-year-old captain?

It’d be easy to chalk up his career-worst 2010 season to old age, but one thing could explain a big chunk of it: bad luck.

Jeter still makes consistent contact (85.5 percent in 2010, MLB average 80.7 percent), and his strikeout rate (16.0 percent) remains well below the league average of 20.7 percent.

Given that he leads off for the Yankees, he remains a valuable fantasy option. Perhaps we won’t see him hit .330 for the fifth time, but a .290 average with 100 runs and approximately 20 steals keeps Jeter relevant at a very thin shortstop position.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders

• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board

• Top 50 (projections included): Is Pujols Still the Top Pick?
• No. 51: Ubaldo Jimenez
• No. 52: Rickie Weeks

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Word hit Wednesday morning that Cardinals’ ace Adam Wainwright has been flown back to St. Louis to have his right elbow examined by team doctors.

The Cardinals (and fantasy managers) across the country are holding their collective breaths, but it’s expected that Wainwright will undergo Tommy John surgery, which would sideline him for 12-18 months.

This is a devastating blow to not only the Cardinals, but those who own Wainwright as well. The 29-year-old was among the top-ranked starting pitchers this season, checking in as the No. 2 pitcher (27th overall) in our rankings.

Our updated starting pitcher rankings now exclude Wainwright, but everything else is the same. Click on each player for a more in-depth analysis, including 2011 projections!

2011 TOP 10 STARTING PITCHERS

1. Roy Halladay (SP – Phi): Five-year averages: 236 IP, 18 wins, 1.42 BB/9, 2.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. Entering age-34 season, but there’s no reason to believe he can’t continue dominance.

2. Tim Lincecum (SP – SF): Regression in K/9, BB/9, HR/9, batting average against, ERA and WHIP last year after improving all categories in previous two seasons. Decrease in fastball velocity and fourth-least effective curveball also contributed to his 2010 decline. Throw out unlucky August, however, and his season ERA drops from 3.43 to 2.79.

3. Felix Hernandez (SP – Sea): Lowest ERA (2.27) in majors last year to go along with stellar peripherals: 8.36 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, .210 BAA, 1.06 WHIP. Low BABIP (.263) and sub-2.50 ERA curse, however, suggest regression in 2011.

4. Cliff Lee (SP – Phi): Since 2007 minor-league stint, he has averaged 222 innings, 16 wins, 7.23 K/9, 1.28 BB/9, 2.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP per season with four different MLB teams. And now he’s a No. 2 starter on a team with plenty of run support.

5. Josh Johnson (SP – Fla): Since 2005, only five starters have an ERA lower than Johnson’s mark of 3.10 (min. 600 innings). Top-five among qualified starters last season in ERA, FIP, xFIP, HR/9, contact rate and swinging strike rate.

6. Jon Lester (SP – Bos): Has the ninth-best ERA (3.29) among starters who’ve logged 600 innings since 2008. Of the eight pitchers with a lower ERA during that time, only Lincecum has a better strikeout rate (10.25) than Lester (8.72).

7. Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD): Youngest of 45 pitchers that logged 200-plus innings in 2010. Of that group, only Lincecum, Lester and Weaver posted a strikeout rate better than Kershaw’s (9.34). His age-21 (2009) and age-22 (2010) seasons show he’s well ahead of where Felix Hernandez was at the same ages.

8. Cole Hamels (SP – Phi): Only eight pitchers since 2007 (min. 800 IP) have lower ERA than his total of 3.44. Ranked second among qualified starters last year in contact rate, swinging strike rate, and 10th in strikeout rate. Clearly best No. 4 starter in the majors; should lead to career high in wins this season.

9. Zack Greinke (SP – Mil): Wide range of ERAs (3.47, 2.16, 4.17) and K/9 (7.40, 9.50, 8.14) in last three seasons. 2010 LOB rate (65.3 percent), FIP (3.34) and xFIP (3.76) indicate he was better than 4.17 ERA.  Numbers against N.L. since 2008 (7-2, 3.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.23 K/9, 1.57 BB/9) suggest forthcoming success in Milwaukee.

10. Ubaldo Jimenez (SP – Col): Improved innings pitched, wins, strikeout rate, ERA, WHIP and batting average against in each of last three seasons. Totals after June, however, are discouraging: 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.43 K/9, 4.19 BB/9 in 120 1/3 innings. Needs to lower his walk rate (3.74 in 2010) to become true elite fantasy pitcher.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 (projections included): Is Pujols Still the Top Pick?
• No. 51: Ubaldo Jimenez
• No. 52: Rickie Weeks

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com