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Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Over the past few weeks, we’ve announced the top 40 players on our 2011 big board. To help keep these rankings easy to find, we’re recapping the 31-40 group in one short post. Click on each player’s name for a more in-depth analysis, including 2011 projections!

Check out our 2011 big board (1-10) here.

Check out our 2011 big board (11-20) here.

Check out our 2011 big board (21-30) here.

31. Joe Mauer (C – Min)– Doesn’t need 25 HRs to be the top catcher; his three-year batting average (.340) is 42 points higher than any player at his position.

32. Victor Martinez (C – Det) – Only catcher to post 100-RBI season since 2004, and he’s done it three times. Leads backstops in HRs over the last seven seasons (129), and now bats in the same lineup as Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez.

33. Cliff Lee (SP – Phi) – Since 2007 minor-league stint, he has averaged 222 innings, 16 wins, 7.23 K/9, 1.28 BB/9, 2.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP per season with four different MLB teams. And now he’s a No. 2 starter on a team with plenty of run support.

34. Nelson Cruz (OF – Tex) –  Has played in only 267 out of a possible 486 games over the last three seasons, yet he’s averaged 21 HRs, 13 steals and a .292 batting average per year. A change in his running style will hopefully pave the way for his first full season and a possible 30/20/.300 campaign.

35. Jason Heyward (OF – Atl) – Injuries have been a concern with him as well, but there’s no denying his talent. Sixth best walk rate in the majors (14.6 percent) last season as a 20-year-old, and appears primed to approach an eye-popping 100/25/100/15/.300 line in 2011.

36. Justin Upton (OF – Ari) – His 30/30 potential didn’t suddenly disappear. 23-year-old still has plenty of room to grow, and has reportedly taken on a “rigorous strengthening program” this offseason to solidify his health.

37. Josh Johnson (SP – Fla)– Since 2005, only five starters have an ERA lower than Johnson’s mark of 3.10 (min. 600 innings). Top-five among qualified starters last season in ERA, FIP, xFIP, HR/9, contact rate and swinging strike rate.

38. Ian Kinsler (2B – Tex)– Three-year averages (92 runs, 19 HRs, 67 RBI, 24 SB, .285 BA) are mind-boggling considering he’s missed a total of 118 games since 2008. Top-10 potential given a full season atop the Rangers’ lineup.

39. Andrew McCutchen (OF – Pit)– Improved plate discipline and recognition of breaking pitches last season are very encouraging. Poor man’s Carl Crawford should approach 100 runs, 20 HRs, 35 SB and a .300 BA in 2011.

40. Jon Lester (SP – Bos)– Has the ninth-best ERA (3.29) among starters who’ve logged 600 innings since 2008. Of the eight pitchers with a lower ERA during that time, only Lincecum has a better strikeout rate (10.25) than Lester (8.72).

The top 50 on our 2011 Big Board will be announced in the coming days as we continue our journey to rank the top 100 players!

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Andrew McCutchen followed up his promising 2009 rookie campaign with 16 HRs, 33 steals and a .286 batting average last year for the Pirates.

In addition to his speed, McCutchen also offers above-average plate discipline:

• 2010 Walk rate: 10.7 percent (MLB average 8.5 percent)
• 2010 Strikeout rate: 15.6 percent (MLB average 20.7 percent)
• 2010 O-Swing rate: 20.0 percent (MLB average 29.3 percent)
• 2010 Contact rate: 84.6 percent (MLB average 80.7 percent)

McCutchen also improved his effectiveness against curveballs last season, something that previously plagued him dating back to his minor league days:

• 2009: 2.8 runs below average vs. curveballs
• 2010: 7.4 runs above average vs. curveballs

Unfortunately, McCutchen hasn’t developed the power that scouts once thought he had. His fantasy upside, however, is that of a poor man’s Carl Crawford.

• 2010 McCutchen: 653 PA, 94 runs, 16 HRs, 56 RBI, 33 SB, .286 BA
• 3-YR AVG Crawford: 663 PA, 110 runs, 19 HRs, 90 RBI, 47, .307 BA

Given an improving Pittsburgh lineup, McCutchen should see a spike in his run-scoring and run-producing totals this season. Still only 24 years old, however, 20-plus HRs remain unlikely.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• No. 31: Joe Mauer
• No. 32: Victor Martinez
• No. 33: Cliff Lee
• No. 34: Nelson Cruz
• No. 35: Jason Heyward
• No. 36: Justin Upton
• No. 37: Josh Johnson
• No. 38: Ian Kinsler

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

When evaluating Ian Kinsler, it’s important to understand how good he is, and how disappointing he’s been.

In 2009, Kinsler posted just the fifth 30/30 season among second basemen since 2000. Unfortunately, it came with a career-low .253 batting average in a career-high 144 games.

In 2010, Kinsler managed just nine home runs and 15 steals in only 103 games (due to leg and ankle injuries), though his batting averaged jumped to .283.

So what should we expect in 2011?

Well, at least one DL stint. Other than that, it’s tough to say. Rangers manager Ron Washington has hinted at positioning Kinsler in the leadoff spot this season, something he did for most of the 2008 and 2009 seasons. This would likely aid his run-scoring and stolen base totals, but might change his approach at the plate.

Either way, Kinsler has top-10 potential.

In fact, when comparing three-year averages to players at his position with similar power/speed skills, Kinsler matches up quite well:

• Chase Utley: 143 G, 635 PA, 100 R, 27 HR, 87 RBI, 17 SB, .284 BA
• Dustin Pedroia: 129 G, 597 PA, 95 R, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 16 SB, .307 BA
• Ian Kinsler: 123 G, 561 PA, 92 R, 19 HR, 67 RBI, 24 SB, .285 BA

Heck, if Kinsler had played in as many games as Utley over the last three seasons, he might be considered the top second baseman heading into 2011. Instead, he’s fifth among two-baggers, No. 38 overall.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• No. 31: Joe Mauer
• No. 32: Victor Martinez
• No. 33: Cliff Lee
• No. 34: Nelson Cruz
• No. 35: Jason Heyward
• No. 36: Justin Upton
• No. 37: Josh Johnson

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

As I noted last season, Baseball America once claimed “The term ‘five-tool prospect’ somehow doesn’t seem strong enough for (Justin) Upton.” Coming off a 26/20/.300 age-22 season in 2009, it appeared as though the junior Upton was prepared for fantasy stardom.

Upton’s 2010 campaign failed to impress, however, as the former No. 1 overall pick posted a 17/18/.273 line in just 133 games. Perhaps most discouraging was Upton’s alarmingly high strikeout rate of 30.7 percent, seventh worst in the majors. Likewise, his contact rate (74.3 percent, MLB average 80.7 percent) was 16th worst among qualified batters.  

Diamondbacks’ GM Kevin Towers was reportedly fielding offers for Upton this offseason, but a deal never surfaced. Looking forward to 2011, there are reasons to remain optimistic about Upton.

It’s important to remember that Upton is entering his age-23 season. Other young phenoms such as Carlos Gonzalez (25) and Andrew McCutchen (24) finally broke through last season after what seemed like several years of hype.

Also, Upton’s plus-power/speed talent didn’t suddenly disappear. The 30/30 potential is still there. Heck, he showed life at times last year, batting .312 with eight HRs, five steals and 25 RBI between June and July.

Further, FanGraphs’s Dave Cameron wrote up an interesting piece a while back detailing players since 1980 who have recorded at least 100 MLB at-bats by age 20 (Upton, of course, qualifies). 

The point was to highlight the careers of players whose talent ushered them to regular playing time in the majors before turning 20.

The results were encouraging. Of the previous 19 players listed, 10 have become All-Stars, three are no-doubt Hall of Famers, and two are working towards Hall of Fame status.

While this doesn’t guarantee anything, it should serve as a pleasant reminder to have patience with Upton.

Due to a lingering shoulder injury that flared up again last August, Upton missed all but four September games. He has reportedly taken on a “rigorous strengthening program” this offseason to solidify his health.

Given his first full season of more than 138 games this year, he may finally begin to approach elite standards.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• No. 31: Joe Mauer
• No. 32: Victor Martinez
• No. 33: Cliff Lee
• No. 34: Nelson Cruz
• No. 35: Jason Heyward

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Jason Heyward proved to be as good as advertised last year, as the highly-touted rookie hit .277 with 18 HRs and 11 steals. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Heyward in 2010, however, was his incredible plate discipline, as the 20-year-old posted the sixth best walk rate (14.6 percent) in the majors.

The only knock on Heyward is an issue that’s been bothering him since the minors: injuries. Heyward missed 99 minor-league games in 2009 due to oblique and hip injuries and a jammed heel. His Arizona Fall League was then limited due to a strained hamstring and back inflammation. Last May, Heyward battled through a groin injury. In June, he played through a thumb injury for three weeks while his batting average dropped nearly 40 points. He eventually spent three weeks on the DL.

Despite posting an impressive line in 71 games after his DL stint (42 runs, seven HRs, 27 RBIs, six steals, .301 average), Heyward says his thumb still isn’t 100 percent.

Even still, Heyward is projected to bat second in a Braves lineup featuring Martin Prado, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and Dan Uggla. Assuming a clean bill of health for all (which may be a stretch), Heyward could be in for major improvements in his sophomore season. His keeper/dynasty league value is off the charts, but for now, the 21-year-old is a top-35 player.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• No. 31: Joe Mauer
• No. 32: Victor Martinez
• No. 33: Cliff Lee
• No. 34: Nelson Cruz

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact 
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Victor Martinez has been one of the most productive players at the catcher position over the last seven seasons. He makes good contact, doesn’t strike out much, always hits for a high average and has 20-25 HR power.

Since 2004 (his first full season), V-Mart has the most home runs among catchers (129). He also holds the second-highest batting average during that period, at an even .300 (Joe Mauer, of course, is first at .327). Martinez leads the pack in terms of RBI production, and it’s not even close. In fact, Martinez is the only catcher since 2004 to post 100 RBI in a season, and he’s done it three times!

While these accomplishments are all very impressive, two things are important to note while projecting Martinez in 2011. First, V-Mart is 32 years old, and the decline for catchers is generally very steep. Second, he’s no longer hitting in Fenway. His new home, Comerica Park, slightly favored pitchers last season. His run-scoring and run-producing totals hinge on whether he’s hitting in front of or behind Miguel Cabrera.

Martinez remains in the top tier of a very thin position, but his prime years are behind him. Expect no more than 20 bombs with a .300 average in 2011.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• No. 31: Joe Mauer

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Joe Mauer was perhaps the most discussed player among the fantasy baseball community at this time last year, coming off a season in which he blasted 28 HRs (after hitting just 29 HRs in his previous three seasons).

We predicted a regression in the power department, but Mauer failed to even live up to our conservative projections, as the Twins’ catcher reverted to single-digit power last season.

While Mauer did play 22 games at DH in 2010 (allowing him to pick up some extra at-bats), he failed to dodge the injury bug again, missing several games last September with a knee injury (Mauer did have minor surgery to fix the problem in December, and should be ready for spring training).

So what should we expect from Mauer in 2011?

There are a few things we can assume. First, Mauer will post a batting average in the .330 range. Second, Mauer will play in about 140 games, collecting approximately 600 plate appearances (his opportunities to DH will be limited again after the Twins re-signed Jim Thome).

His power, however, remains a question. Everyone wants him to be the 28-HR guy he was in 2009. The reality is, however, you are what you are. In five full seasons (excluding 2009), Mauer has averaged just nine bombs per year.

So why is Mauer ranked so high? Despite his below-average power, Mauer’s three-year batting average is a whopping 42 points higher than any other player at his position.

While fantasy managers usually draft catchers hoping for anything but a negative effect, Mauer offers the complete opposite with his batting title-worthy average.

Mauer’s uncanny ability to maintain such a high average aids his run-scoring and run-producing totals, therefore giving him a slight edge as the No. 1 catcher on our 2011 big board.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Over the past few weeks, we’ve announced the top-30 players on our 2011 big board. To help keep these rankings easy to find, we’re recapping the 21-30 group in one short post. Click on each player’s name for a more in-depth analysis, including 2011 projections!

Check out our 2011 big board (1-10) here.

Check out our 2011 big board (11-20) here.

21. Dustin Pedroia (2B – Bos)— Was on pace for career-year before foot injury last season. Now fully-recovered, the 27-year-old is primed for a 110/20/85/15/.300 season.

22. Chase Utley (2B – Phi)—Averaged 151 games, 111 runs, 29 HRs, 101 RBI, 15 steals, .301 average from 2005 to 2009 before thumb injury forced him to miss seven weeks in 2010. Decline in batting average (.332, .292, .282, .275) in recent seasons is concerning, however.

23. Ryan Zimmerman (3B – Was)—Missed 20 games last season and 56 games in 2008; Werth and LaRoche will struggle to replace Dunn’s presence. However, the 26-year-old remains capable of 25 HRs and .300 at thin position.

24. Jose Reyes (SS – NYM)—Averaged 113 runs, 14 HRs, 66 RBI, 65 steals, .287 batting average while missing a total of just 15 games from 2005 to 2008. Has missed 155 games over last two seasons, but remains capable of elite fantasy numbers given healthy Mets lineup.

25. Josh Hamilton (OF – Tex)—Missed 73 games in 2009 and 29 games in 2010, but still posted MVP numbers. .390 BABIP (among other things), however, suggests a regression in 2011.

26. Shin-Soo Choo (OF – Cle)—One of three players to post 20/20/.300 line in 2010. Given healthy returns from Sizemore and Santana, Choo could be just fourth 20/100/100/20/.300 player in last three years.

27. Adam Wainwright (SP – STL)—Three-year averages in wins (17), BB/9 (2.36), ERA (2.68) and WHIP (1.14) are all better than those of Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez. Only pitcher in baseball last season to record a value of 10 runs above average with three different pitchers (fastball, slider, curveball).

28. Tim Lincecum (SP – SF)—Regression in K/9, BB/9, HR/9, batting average against, ERA and WHIP last year after improving all categories in previous two seasons. Decrease in fastball velocity and fourth-least effective curveball also contributed to his 2010 decline. Throw out unlucky August, however, and his season ERA drops from 3.43 to 2.79.

29. Felix Hernandez (SP – Sea)—Lowest ERA (2.27) in majors last year to go along with stellar peripherals: 8.36 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, .210 BAA, 1.06 WHIP. Low BABIP (.263) and sub-2.50 ERA curse, however, suggest regression in 2011.

30. Dan Uggla (2B – Atl)—Most HRs among second-basemen (154) since 2006. 30-plus HRs finally came with respectable average (.287) in 2010. Given his new ballpark and loaded Braves lineup, career-year could be in the works.

The top 40 on our 2011 Big Board will be announced in the coming days as we continue our journey to rank the top 100 players!

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10 Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20 Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact 
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Felix Hernandez has made great strides over the last three years. In each season since 2008, King Felix has increased his innings pitched and strikeout rate. Likewise, he’s improved his walk rate, batting average against, ERA and WHIP each year.

The Mariners’ right-hander had his best season yet in 2010, posting the lowest ERA in baseball (2.27) to go a long with stellar peripherals:

• Strikeout rate: 8.36 K/9
• Walk rate: 2.52 BB/9
• Batting average against: .210
• WHIP: 1.06

Hernandez boasted the fifth-best fastball (25.5 runs above average) and the second-best change-up (18.7 runs above average) in the majors last season, while showing great improvement with his slider.

So why is Felix just the fourth-ranked starting pitcher on our 2011 big board?

It’s mostly because of things that don’t show up on the stat sheet.

For example, the three pitchers we have ranked ahead of Felix (Halladay, Wainwright and Lincecum) all pitch in the National League, while Hernandez resides in the hitter-friendly American League.

Also, Felix pitches for one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. It’s now a well-known fact that pitchers have very little control over their win totals, and Hernandez’s 2010 campaign was a great example of that. Despite posting the best ERA in baseball, Felix won just 13 games. This was a result of only 3.10 runs of support per nine innings, the second-lowest total among qualified starters. This clearly isn’t his own fault, but just like the NL/AL factor, it’s something to consider.

There’s also a luck factor involved. This isn’t to say Felix isn’t wildly talented, but his .263 BABIP was the 11th-lowest among qualified starters last season. Hernandez is a ground-ball pitcher, so low BABIPs are more likely. Still, a clip in the .290 range is reasonable to expect for him this season.

The sub-2.50 curse is also worth mentioning here, especially in Hernandez’s case. Since 2000, there have been 15 instances of a sub-2.50 ERA (minimum 150 innings). Only three times was a pitcher able to lower his ERA in the following season. Felix Hernandez was one of those pitchers, as he dropped his ERA from 2.49 in 2009 to 2.27 last season.

While this feat is quite impressive, a regression to the mean is likely. This isn’t to say Felix will lose his way. Heck, the kid is just entering his age-25 season, and he’s already pitching among the league’s elites. Recent history, however, indicates at least a slight regression in terms of ERA.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10 Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20 Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• No. 21: Dustin Pedroia
• No. 22: Chase Utley
• No. 23: Ryan Zimmerman
• No. 24: Jose Reyes
• No. 25: Josh Hamilton
• No. 26: Shin-Soo Choo
• No. 27: Adam Wainwright
• No. 28: Tim Lincecum

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact 
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Prior to 2010, Tim Lincecum made tremendous strides in each of his first three seasons on his way to becoming the game’s most dominating pitcher. From 2007 to 2009, Tiny Tim improved his K/9, BB/9, HR/9, batting average against, ERA and WHIP each season.

Lincecum experienced a setback in all six categories in 2010, however, and was even relegated to spot-start status after allowing 22 earned runs in 25.1 innings last August.

So what happened to the two-time Cy Young award winner?

Two things stand out. First, his decline in average fastball velocity:

• 2007: 94.2 MPH
• 2008: 94.1 MPH
• 2009: 92.4 MPH
• 2010: 91.3 MPH

Second, and more surprisingly, is the difference in Lincecum’s curveball from 2009 to 2010:

• 2009: 5.6 runs above average
• 2010: 7.0 runs below average

Only three other pitchers (Randy Wolf, Dave Bush and John Lackey) had less effective yackers in 2010.

There are, however, reasons to believe The Freak can bounce back in 2011. Despite all of his struggles last season, Lincecum remained among the league leaders in “nastiness”:

• Contact Rate: 75.1 percent (fifth), MLB average: 80.7 percent
• Swinging Strike Rate: 11.0 percent (sixth), MLB average: 8.5 percent

Also, Lincecum’s changeup was third-best in the majors, at 16.9 runs above average.

In fact, if you throw out last August (a month which saw Lincecum fall victim to a .387 BABIP and 59.0 left-on-base rate), his season ERA would have been a cool 2.79—a far cry from his actual total of 3.43.

All things considered, it’s reasonable to expect the 26-year-old Freaky Franchise to bounce back in 2011. Draft him as the third starting pitcher, behind Roy Halladay and Adam Wainwright.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10 Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20 Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• No. 21: Dustin Pedroia
• No. 22: Chase Utley
• No. 23: Ryan Zimmerman
• No. 24: Jose Reyes
• No. 25: Josh Hamilton
• No. 26: Shin-Soo Choo
• No. 27: Adam Wainwright

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com