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According to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes, Vladimir Guerrero has signed a one-year, $8 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles. Ken Rosenthal and Buster Olney have since confirmed the news.

While most fantasy managers may jump off the Vlad bandwagon knowing 81 games in Arlington are no longer possible, Camden Yards might actually be a better place for the 36-year-old to hit.

In 32 career games at Camden Yards, Guerrero has posted the following line:

• 126 AB, 23 R, 9 HR, 30 RBI, .333/.400/.611

In fact, Vlad has a better AB/HR rate at Camden (14.0) than he does in Arlington (16.8).

Further, Camden Yards (fifth) ranked ahead of Rangers Ballpark (seventh) in home run-friendliness last season, according to ESPN’s MLB Park Factors.

Guerrero will DH and bat cleanup in a surprisingly potent Orioles lineup that now includes: Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Derek Lee, Mark Reynolds and Adam Jones, not to mention Luke Scott and Matt Wieters.

It seems as though the only thing standing between Vlad and his seventh season of at least 27 HR, 90 RBI and a .300 batting average in the last eight years is his health. Despite entering his age-36 season, Vlad has been surprisingly durable in recent years, collecting at least 520 at-bats in six of the last seven seasons.

Vlad still whiffs at more pitches outside of the zone than anyone, and has some of the lowest walk and strikeout rates in baseball, but there’s every reason to believe he’s capable of at least 25 HR, 100 RBI and a .300 batting average in 2011.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10 Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20 Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• No. 21: Dustin Pedroia
• No. 22: Chase Utley
• No. 23: Ryan Zimmerman
• No. 24: Jose Reyes
• No. 25: Josh Hamilton
• No. 26: Shin-Soo Choo
• No. 27: Adam Wainwright

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Over the last two years, Adam Wainwright has established himself as one of the best starting pitchers in fantasy baseball.

His three-year averages in wins (17), BB/9 (2.36), ERA (2.68) and WHIP (1.14) are all better than those of Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez.

Since 2007 (Wainwright’s first full season in the majors), the towering right-hander has improved on his formerly average strikeout and walk rates:

Strikeout Rate

• 2007: 6.06 K/9
• 2008: 6.20 K/9
• 2009: 8.19 K/9
• 2010: 8.32 K/9

Walk Rate

• 2007: 3.12 BB/9
• 2008: 2.32 BB/9
• 2009: 2.55 BB/9
• 2010: 2.19 BB/9

In 2010, Wainwright was the only pitcher in baseball to record a value of 10 runs above average with three different pitchers (fastball, slider, curveball); in fact, Wainwright’s curveball was the best in the majors last season, checking in at 22.4 runs above average.

Looking forward to 2011, there’s nothing to suggest a letdown. A tiny regression to the mean from his 2010 ERA of 2.42 may be in order, but it shouldn’t be a big one.

Expect another dominant performance from the 29-year-old in 2011.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10 Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20 Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• No. 21: Dustin Pedroia
• No. 22: Chase Utley
• No. 23: Ryan Zimmerman
• No. 24: Jose Reyes
• No. 25: Josh Hamilton
• No. 26: Shin-Soo Choo

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Shin-Soo Choo has established himself over the last two-and-a-half seasons as an incredibly valuable (and perhaps under-appreciated) fantasy asset. Of the seven players who posted 20 HR and 20 steals last year, only three (Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez and Choo) came with a .300 batting average. In fact, Choo posted a 20/20/.300 line in 2009 as well, placing him in exclusive company.

Choo’s elite BABIP (career .360) has been questioned by some, but his ability to maintain it over the course of three seasons (.367, .370, .347) proves its legitimacy.

If Choo had a better lineup around him to support his runs and RBI totals, he’d undoubtedly be a top-20 player. Healthy returns from Grady Sizemore and Carlos Santana in 2011 could go a long way in helping Choo become just the fourth 20/100/100/20/.300 player in the last three years (Carlos Gonzalez in 2010, Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Braun in 2009).

With his Korean military commitment no longer an issue, Choo is free to continue doing his best Bobby Abreu impression in 2011. The 28-year-old is a top-30 pick, seventh among outfielders. Draft with confidence.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10 Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20 Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• No. 21: Dustin Pedroia
• No. 22: Chase Utley
• No. 23: Ryan Zimmerman
• No. 24: Jose Reyes
• No. 25: Josh Hamilton

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

During a five-year period from 2005 to 2009, Chase Utley was one of the most valuable assets in fantasy baseball, averaging 151 games, 111 runs, 29 HRs, 101 RBI, 15 steals and a .301 batting average per season as a second baseman.  

A thumb injury which required surgery forced him to miss seven weeks last season, ending his five-year streak of awesomeness. Although Utley did return in time to post an impressive September line, Utley’s time as the top fantasy second baseman has likely ended.

This isn’t to say Utley isn’t still capable of 25 HRs, 15 steals and a .290 average. Rather, Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia have finally caught up to Utley as they both enter their prime years. Utley, on the other hand, is now 32 years old.

While Utley’s plate discipline stats don’t suggest much regression, a trend in his batting average over the last few years is somewhat peculiar:

• 2007: .332
• 2008: .292
• 2009: .282
• 2010: .275

While a bounceback season is fully expected, this downward pattern is worth mentioning.

Surprisingly, one area of Utley’s game that hasn’t declined is his base stealing efficiency:

• 2008: 88 percent (14 out of 16)
• 2009: 100 percent (23 out of 23)
• 2010: 87 percent (13 out of 15)
• Career: 88 percent (96 out of 109)

Given a full season of health as the Phillies’ No. 3 hitter, Utley can still be one of the most productive players at his position.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10 Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20 Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• No. 21: Dustin Pedroia

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Over the past few weeks, we’ve announced the top-20 players on our 2011 big board. To help keep these rankings easy to find, we’re recapping the 11-20 group in one short post. Click on each player’s name for a more in-depth analysis, including 2011 projections!

Check out our 2011 big board (1-10) here.

11. Joey Votto (1B – Cin)—His 2010 campaign was the first 35/100/100/15/.320 season from a first basemen not named Pujols since Derrek Lee posted a 45/120/107/15/.335 line in 2005.

12. Robinson Cano (2B – NYY)—Has hit .297 or higher five times (in six seasons), and sports a career .309 batting average. His on-base percentage, slugging percentage, isolated power, fly ball percentage and HR/FB rate have all increased progressively over the last three seasons, and he’s has missed a grand total of eight games over the last four years.

13. Ryan Howard (1B – Phi)—Four-year streak of at least 45 HRs and 136 RBI ended last year due to ankle injury that forced him to miss three weeks. Thirty-one-year-old’s contact rates are trending upward while his strikeout rates are on the decline; he remains capable of 40 HRs and .275 batting average.

14. Alex Rodriguez (3B – NYY)—Batting average and slugging percentage (and therefore his isolated power) have declined progressively over the last four years. Despite this, he’s managed to post 30 HRs and 100 RBI in 13 consecutive seasons.

15. Prince Fielder (1B – Mil)—Since 2006, he’s produced HR totals of 28, 50, 34, 46 and 32, with RBI totals ranging from 81 (2006) to 141 (2009), while batting as low as .261 (2010) and as high as .299 (2009). Notwithstanding, he’s never missed more than five games in any of his first five seasons.

16. Matt Holliday (OF – STL)—Despite playing the last two seasons in Oakland and St. Louis (not Colorado), his three-year averages (99 runs, 26 HRs, 100 RBI, 17 steals, .315 batting average) are better than those of Kemp, Hamilton and Upton.

17. Mark Teixeira (1B – NYY)—Line-drive, fly-ball and strikeout rates are all trending in the wrong direction, which may help explain .256 batting average in 2010. 30 HRs and 100 RBI are near-locks, but a .300 average isn’t.

18. Matt Kemp (OF – LAD)—BB/K ratio was 15th worst last season, while his strikeout rate was 12th highest, and his contact rate was the sixth lowest. BABIP 49 points below career average could explain his “down” season, but full potential won’t be reached without improved plate discipline.

19. Roy Halladay (SP – Phi)—Five-year averages: 236 IP, 18 wins, 1.42 BB/9, 2.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. Entering age-34 season, but there’s no reason to believe he can’t continue dominance.

20. Kevin Youkilis (1B/3B – Bos)—Increased OPS in each of his seven seasons. Better three-year batting average than Wright, Longoria, Rodriguez and Zimmerman. Three-year averages across the board top Zimmerman’s.

The top 30 on our 2011 Big Board will be announced in the coming days as we continue our journey to rank the top 100 players!

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be the Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why 5 Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero and Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook and Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Kevin Youkilis’ current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 30.89, nearly 11 spots below where we believe he belongs.

The thing fantasy managers may be forgetting is that Youkilis will re-gain third base eligibility this season, which is a huge deal considering the lack of depth at the hot corner.

A few things to consider: Youkilis has a better three-year batting average than David Wright, Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Zimmerman.

In fact, his three-year averages across the board top that of the favored Zimmerman, despite the fact that Youkilis has missed a total of 103 games over the last three seasons.

Still not convinced?

Youkilis has increased his OPS every season of his career:

• 2004: .780
• 2005: .805
• 2006: .810
• 2007: .843
• 2008: .958 (12th best in MLB)
• 2009: .961 (fifth best in MLB)
• 2010: .975 (seventh best in MLB)

At 32, Youkilis’ plate discipline remains stellar, as he posted well above-average ratios in 2010:

• BB/K ratio (0.87, MLB average: 0.46)
• Contact rate (87.0 percent, MLB average: 80.7 percent)
• Swinging strike rate (4.9 percent, MLB average: 8.5 percent)

Given 550 to 600 plate appearances in 2011, Boston’s No. 5 hitter (sandwiched between Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz) is poised to post the fourth-best line among third basemen.  

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• No. 11: Joey Votto
• No. 12: Robinson Cano
• No. 13: Ryan Howard
• No. 14: Alex Rodriguez
• No. 15: Prince Fielder
• No. 16: Matt Holliday
• No. 17: Mark Teixeira
• No. 18: Matt Kemp
• No. 19: Roy Halladay

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Toronto Blue Jays were finally able to find a taker for Vernon Wells’ hefty contract, dealing him to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim last Friday in exchange for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera. (Click here for fantasy perspective on Vernon Wells in Anaheim.)

On Tuesday, the Blue Jays flipped Napoli to the Texas Rangers for relief pitcher Frank Francisco. (Click here for fantasy perspective on Mike Napoli in Texas.)

Francisco (the guy formerly known for throwing a chair into the stands) will join the recently-acquired Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch in a battle this spring to determine the team’s closer for the 2011 season.

Of course, nothing will be decided until March, but it’s never too early to speculate.

Both Dotel and Rauch landed unlikely ninth-inning gigs in 2010, saving 22 and 21 games, respectively. Francisco saved 25 games for the Rangers in 2009, but lost his job early last season to oncoming AL Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz.

While all three have recent closing experience, none of them have been used exclusively as a closer in the past. Basically, the Blue Jays have three fully-qualified eighth-inning guys, but no clear-cut option to close games.

To find the best option for the job, we’ll compare relief-pitcher-relevant statistics from last season.

Strikeout Rate

• Francisco: 10.25 K/9
• Dotel: 10.55 K/9
• Rauch: 7.18 K/9

Walk Rate

• Francisco: 3.08 BB/9
• Dotel: 4.50 BB/9
• Rauch: 2.18 BB/9

Rauch clearly doesn’t have dominant stuff, but his excellent walk rate is a big plus. Francisco and Dotel had near identical superb strikeout rates last season, but Francisco’s walk rate was much better.

ERA/FIP

• Francisco: 3.76 ERA/3.12 FIP
• Dotel: 4.08 ERA/4.20 FIP
• Rauch: 3.12 ERA/2.94 FIP

(Check out this clever video for an explanation of FIP.)

Francisco posted a respectable ERA, while his .321 BABIP and 73.8 percent LOB rate actually signal a bit of poor luck. His 3.12 FIP supports this.

After lowering his ERA in each of the three seasons prior to 2010, Dotel’s ERA shot back up over four, despite a .269 BABIP.

Rauch’s .320 BABIP actually signals poor luck, but the 32-year-old shined last season, posting his best ERA since 2004. While his FIP supports this, his xFIP (or expected FIP) was 4.18. This is due to Rauch’s unusually low HR/FB rate of 3.7 percent. This is not a good sign for 2011.

Next, we’ll target a few not-so-obvious stats that are generally indicative of a good closer.

Contact Rate

• Francisco: 76.6 percent
• Dotel: 72.0 percent
• Rauch: 81.3 percent

To give you a frame of reference, the MLB average in 2010 was 80.7 percent. Francisco and Dotel were both filthy by this standard, while Rauch was very hittable.

Another intriguing stat (especially with relievers) is first-pitch strike rate. You expect your closer to throw strikes, especially with the first pitch. Nobody wants the guy who’s going to extend the game by walking a hitter in the late innings.

First-Strike Rate

• Francisco: 62.4 percent
• Dotel: 52.7 percent
• Rauch: 66.5 percent

(The MLB average in 2010 was 58.8 percent.)

Dotel’s unusually low rate could help explain his poor season, as it’s tough to get hitters out when you’re always behind in the count. Conversely, Francisco and Rauch posted above-average rates.

Fastball Value

• Francisco: 5.9 runs above average
• Dotel: 0.3 runs above average
• Rauch: 5.1 runs above average

While Francisco had the best fastball of the group, he also had the best average fastball velocity (93.4 MPH).

Based on these statistics, Frank Francisco is the best option to close games for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2011. It just so happens that he’s also the youngest, entering his age-31 season (compared to Dotel, 37, and Rauch, 32).

While much can change between now and Opening Day, or even Opening Day and the end of the season, Frank Francisco is currently the Blue Jays’ best option.

If you’re drafting super-early this season, he’s the guy you want to target in Toronto.

Stop by the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Insiders Closer’s Corner for a full updated list of team-by-team closing situations!

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• No. 11: Joey Votto
• No. 12: Robinson Cano
• No. 13: Ryan Howard
• No. 14: Alex Rodriguez
• No. 15: Prince Fielder
• No. 16: Matt Holliday
• No. 17: Mark Teixeira
• No. 18: Matt Kemp
• No. 19: Roy Halladay

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Mike Napoli was dealt to the Toronto Blue Jays, along with Juan Rivera, last Friday, in exchange for Vernon Wells. (Read more about that trade’s fantasy impact here.)

On Tuesday, the Blue Jays flipped Napoli to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Frank Francisco, a trade that has the fantasy baseball community stirring once again.

In five big-league seasons, Napoli has played his home games in Anaheim, a stadium which has produced wildly inconsistent park factor ratings in recent seasons.

In Arlington, Napoli will play half his games in a park ranked seventh or better in terms of home runs allowed in each of the last three seasons. He’s also moving into a lineup with ridiculous firepower, and will likely bat sixth or seventh behind the likes of Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Adrian Beltre.

Napoli will split time between catcher, first base and DH. He’ll likely rotate among all three positions while the Rangers attempt to find at-bats for Michael Young, Yorvit Torrealba, Mitch Moreland and Chris Davis. While this may prevent Napoli from everyday duty, he remains likely to get at least 400 at-bats again in 2011, a feat only 12 catchers accomplished last season.

Despite Napoli’s declining walk and contact rates, in addition to his ridiculously high strikeout rate, the 29-year-old is one of only two catchers to have hit 20 HRs in each of the last three seasons (Brian McCann being the other). Given his surroundings this season, 20 bombs are certainly likely once again.

Although Napoli hit just .238 last season, a .279 BABIP is at least partially to blame. The .251 career hitter checked in with batting averages of .273 and .272 in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Expect a mark somewhere in between in 2011.

Like most catchers, Napoli’s at-bats will limited in 2011. Unlike most, however, Napoli has the ability to play first base and DH, which could allow him the opportunity for a career year in Texas.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• No. 11: Joey Votto
• No. 12: Robinson Cano
• No. 13: Ryan Howard
• No. 14: Alex Rodriguez
• No. 15: Prince Fielder
• No. 16: Matt Holliday
• No. 17: Mark Teixeira
• No. 18: Matt Kemp
• No. 19: Roy Halladay

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

In a deal that sent shock waves through the baseball community last weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays sent Vernon Wells and his monstrous contract to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera.

While the Angels inexplicably handcuffed themselves with one of the worst contracts in baseball history, it’s not relevant to fantasy baseball. In fact, we don’t even care about Wells’ declining defense. All we really want to know is how his bat will fit into the Angels lineup.

2010 was a fountain-of-youth type season for the now 32-year-old Wells, as he blasted 31 HRs for just the second time in his career after posting home run totals of 16, 20 and 15 in the three seasons prior to last.

His batting average, which has been all over the map in recent seasons (.245, .300, .260) checked in at .273 in 2010, just a few points shy of his .280 career batting average.

Even his line drive and flyball rates have been up and down in recent seasons, making it difficult to find any patterns that might explain his sudden power resurgence.

According to Hit Tracker Online, however, 32 percent of Wells’ HRs qualified as “just enough” last season, a mark slightly above league average. All things equal in 2011, fantasy managers should expect a small regression in Wells’ home run total.

Unfortunately for Wells, things are no longer equal.

With last weekend’s trade, Wells moves from baseball’s fourth most home run-friendly park (Rogers Centre) to the eighth least home run-friendly park (Angel Stadium of Anaheim) according to ESPN’s MLB park factors.

This trade does, however land Wells in a more fantasy-friendly lineup. Instead of being sandwiched between Jose Bautista and Adam Lind, Wells now finds himself in a lineup with speedsters Erick Aybar and Peter Bourjos and run producers Torii Hunter, Kendry Morales and Bobby Abreu. This probably won’t help Wells blast 30 HRs again, but it will likely aid his run-scoring and run-producing opportunities.

Wells won’t blow you away in 2011, but if you’re willing to lower your expectations from his 2010 HR total, he could be a borderline No. 2 outfielder in most standard leagues.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• No. 11: Joey Votto
• No. 12: Robinson Cano
• No. 13: Ryan Howard
• No. 14: Alex Rodriguez
• No. 15: Prince Fielder
• No. 16: Matt Holliday
• No. 17: Mark Teixeira
• No. 18: Matt Kemp
• No. 19: Roy Halladay

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Fantasy managers generally avoid starting pitchers entering their age-34 season, but when you’ve tallied no less than 220 innings for five consecutive seasons with a 2.96 ERA over that time frame, exceptions can be made. That’s just the case with Roy Halladay.

During the aforementioned five-year span (2006-2010), Halladay has averaged a whopping 18 wins per season and posted a minuscule 1.51 walk rate.

But wait, there’s more.

Still speaking in terms of the last five seasons, Halladay has posted by far the best first-pitch strike rate (65.2 percent) and top O-Swing rate (30.7 percent) among qualified starters.

In 2010, Halladay boasted the best cutter in the majors to go along with an extremely effective fastball/change-up/curveball repertoire. The Phillies’ ace hasn’t lost any velocity on his fastball (92.6 average MPH in 2010, 92.1 career), and is among the league leaders in ground ball rate.

His slightly above-average strikeout rate (7.86 in 2010) is somewhat negated by the fact that he piles up so many innings, as he’s posted 200-plus strikeouts in three consecutive seasons.

A tiny regression to the mean may be in Halladay’s future, though not enough to keep him from being the No. 1 fantasy pitcher in 2011. Draft him with confidence.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• No. 11: Joey Votto
• No. 12: Robinson Cano
• No. 13: Ryan Howard
• No. 14: Alex Rodriguez
• No. 15: Prince Fielder
• No. 16: Matt Holliday
• No. 17: Mark Teixeira
• No. 18: Matt Kemp

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

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