Kuzul

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one by one until the Top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Mark Teixeira has displayed impressive consistency and durability over the last three seasons, posting no less than 100 runs, 30 HRs and 100 RBI each year while missing a total of just 15 games.

Normally a .300 hitter (.306, .308, .292 from 2007 to 2009), the Yankees first baseman hit a career-low .256 in 2010. Most will point to his “unlucky” .268 BABIP to explain his 2010 shortcoming, and while that may be partially to blame, there may be other factors involved as well.

Teixeira has seemingly changed his swing in recent years, as a noticeable trend has surfaced in his batted ball rates:

Fly-Ball Rate

• 2008: 36.5 percent
• 2009: 43.8 percent
• 2010: 45.5 percent
• Career: 40.3 percent

Likewise, his line-drive rate has decreased in recent seasons:

Line-Drive Rate

• 2008: 20.7 percent
• 2009: 19.8 percent
• 2010: 19.0 percent
• Career: 21.2 percent

High fly-ball rates in addition to low line-drive rates generally yield below-average (supposedly “unlucky”) batting averages on balls in play, and thus, low batting averages. This case is an example of that.

Even his above-average plate discipline has declined in recent seasons, judging by the increase in his strikeout rate:

Strikeout Rate

• 2008: 16.2 percent
• 2009: 18.7 percent
• 2010: 20.3 percent

While it’s reasonable to expect a bounce-back 2011 in terms of batting average, these patterns are especially discouraging. Teixeira is entering next season at age 31; draft with caution.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• No. 11: Joey Votto
• No. 12: Robinson Cano
• No. 13: Ryan Howard
• No. 14: Alex Rodriguez
• No. 15: Prince Fielder
• No. 16: Matt Holliday

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Prince Fielder is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get.

Since 2006, his first full season in the majors, Fielder has produced HR totals of 28, 50, 34, 46 and 32. He’s also posted RBI totals ranging from 81 (2006) to 141 (2009), while batting as low as .261 (2010) and as high as .299 (2009). Notwithstanding, he’s never missed more than five games in any of his first five seasons.

Despite these varying totals, Fielder has posted incredibly consistent peripherals in recent seasons:

Strikeout Rate

• 2008: 22.8%
• 2009: 23.4%
• 2010: 23.9%
• Career: 22.8%

Contact Rate

• 2008: 75.7%
• 2009: 76.9%
• 2010: 76.4%
• Career: 76.2%

Further, Fielder has increased his walk rates progressively over the last three seasons:

• 2008: 12.1%
• 2009: 15.3%
• 2010: 16.0%

In preparation for last season’s big board, we uncovered some interesting data at Hit Tracker Online that suggested a regression in Fielder’s home run total from 2009 to 2010. We included that data in Fielder’s 2010 projection, which we know now to have been an accurate prediction.

This year, the data suggests a bounce-back season as Fielder enters his age 27 season. He’s the sixth-best first baseman, worthy of being drafted No. 15 overall.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• No. 11: Joey Votto
• No. 12: Robinson Cano
• No. 13: Ryan Howard
• No. 14: Alex Rodriguez

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Alex Rodriguez has a lot working against him heading into 2011. The 35-year-old has missed a total of 87 games over the last three seasons. He’s failed to hit at least 35 HRs in each of the last two seasons, a total he previously maintained for 11 consecutive years dating back to 1998.

A-Roid’s batting average and slugging percentage (and therefore his isolated power as well) have declined progressively over the last four seasons:

Batting Average

• 2007: .314
• 2008: .302
• 2009: .286
• 2010: .270

Slugging Percentage

• 2007: .645
• 2008: .573
• 2009: .532
• 2010: .506

Isolated Power

• 2007: .331
• 2008: .271
• 2009: .245
• 2010: .236

Despite all this, A-Rod has managed to maintain his incredible streak of 13 years with at least 30 HRs and 100 RBI. Given 550 at-bats, the Yankees’ cleanup hitter is likely to extend that streak to 14 years, making him the third-ranked player at the surprisingly thin hot corner position in 2011.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• No. 11: Joey Votto
• No. 12: Robinson Cano
• No. 13: Ryan Howard

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why 5 Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero and Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook and Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Chase Utley has widely been considered the top fantasy second baseman for several years. Until now.

Robinson Cano proved his 2009 spike in power (25 HRs) was no fluke, as the left-handed hitter whacked 29 over the fence in 2010. Further, the 28-year-old has proven himself to be the most durable and consistent two-bagger over the last few years.

In six big-league seasons, Cano has hit .297 or higher five times, and sports a career .309 batting average. Over the last four seasons, Cano has missed a grand total of eight games.

This is especially important to note considering Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler have missed 86, 123 and 150 games, respectively, over the same four-year period.

Cano’s on-base percentage, slugging percentage, isolated power, fly ball percentage and HR/FB rate have all increased progressively over the last three seasons, supporting his growth in power production.

Now fully entrenched as the Yankees’ No. 5 hitter, Cano should hit 25-plus dingers for the third consecutive season and have plenty of opportunity to top the 100-RBI plateau once again in 2011.

He doesn’t present the highest ceiling among second basemen, as the aforementioned Utley, Pedroia and Kinsler all have 20/20 potential, but Cano is most definitely the safest pick.

This early in the draft, consistency is more important than potential. Take Cano 12fth overall and reap the rewards.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• No. 11: Joey Votto

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one by one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Joey Votto did work on NL pitching in 2010, setting career highs across the board with 106 runs, 37 HRs, 113 RBI, 16 steals and a whopping .324 batting average.

In fact, Votto’s 2010 campaign was the first 35/100/100/15/.320 season among first basemen not named Albert Pujols since Derrek Lee posted a 45/120/107/15/.335 line in 2005.

So why do we have the 27-year-old left-handed slugger ranked four spots below his Mock Draft Central ADP?

First, Votto led the league in 2010 with a HR/FB rate of 25.0 percent. No other player posted a mark better than 21.7 percent. In the post-steroids era, it’s unlikely that anyone not named Ryan Howard can sustain such a high HR/FB rate in consecutive seasons. This isn’t to say Votto doesn’t have light-tower power. Rather, a rate in the range of his career mark of 19.9 percent is more likely in 2011.

Second, it’s worth noting that Votto posted a ridiculous 40.1 runs above average against fastballs last season, second best in the majors. Only five players have posted a higher mark in the last three years.

While Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce, Votto’s protection, are no slouches, both are much easier to pitch to than Votto, meaning he’ll likely see fewer fastballs in 2011. Of course this will lead to more free passes and fewer RBI opportunities for Votto, preventing him from improving on his 2010 total of 113.

While there’s no doubting Votto’s pure talent, his 2010 campaign fits into the same category as Carlos Gonzalez’s: unrepeatable. Expect a slight regression from Votto this season, though we still project him as the fourth-best first baseman in 2011.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook and Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Over the past few days, we’ve announced the top-10 players on our 2011 big board. To help keep these rankings easy to find, we’re recapping the top-10 in one short post. Click on each player’s name for a more in-depth analysis, including 2011 projections!

1. Albert Pujols (1B – STL): His career averages (119 runs, 41 HRs, 123 RBI, 8 steals, .331 batting average) haven’t been matched in a single-season since Larry Walker posted a redonkulous 143/49/130/33/.366 line in 1997.

2. Hanley Ramirez (SS – FLA): His career averages (112 runs, 25 HRs, 78 RBI, 39 steals, .313 batting average) are jaw-dropping considering his position. However, the most impressive stat (and the one that separates him from Troy Tulowitzki) is that he’s averaged 152 games per season over the last five years.

3. Miguel Cabrera (1B – DET): Entering his age-28 season and still improving. He’s had 33 HRs in six of the last seven seasons and no less than 103 RBI and a .292 batting average in seven full seasons.

4. Troy Tulowitzki (SS – COL): He was the only shortstop to hit 25 HRs last season. Entering his age-26 season, he’s one of only two players at a thin position capable of a 30/20/.300 line.

5. Adrian Gonzalez (1B – BOS): His career home/road splits suggest 50 HRs/.315 batting average are entirely possible in Boston’s lineup.

6. David Wright (3B – NYM): Despite the strikeouts, he still has the 30/100/100/.300 potential that Longoria shares, only Wright is capable of adding 30 steals to the mix.

7. Evan Longoria (3B – TB): Career averages of 88 runs, 27 HRs, 101 RBI, 10 steals, .283 batting average at a surprisingly thin position. And he’s only 25.

8. Ryan Braun (OF – MIL): Improving plate discipline suggests possible improvement on three-year averages (102 runs, 31 HRs, 108 RBI, 16 steals, .303 batting average) in 2011.

9. Carl Crawford (OF – BOF): 20-HR, 50-steal, .300-average potential in Fenway.

10. Carlos Gonzalez (OF – COL):  First player to post at least 35 HRs, 110 runs, 110 RBI, 25 steals and a .330 batting average since Ivan Rodriguez recorded a 35/116/113/25/.332 line in 1999 with the Texas Rangers.

The top 20 on our 2011 Big Board will be announced in the coming days as we continue our journey to rank the top 100 players!

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Last season was the year of Car-Go. The former Arizona and Oakland farmhand led all outfielders not named Jose Bautista in runs (111), home runs (34) and RBI (117). He finished second among outfielders to Josh Hamilton in batting average (.336) and added 26 stolen bases, making him the most prolific five-category producer of the season.

In fact, Gonzalez was the first player to post at least 35 HRs, 110 runs, 110 RBI, 25 steals and a .330 batting average since Ivan Rodriguez recorded a 35/116/113/25/.332 line in 1999 with the Texas Rangers.

So why is Car-Go just the No. 10 player on our 2011 big board?

Gonzalez’s .384 BABIP last season was third-highest in baseball and will likely regress into the .340 range in 2011. His o-swing rate (percentage of whiffs on pitches outside the strike zone) was 37.0 percent in 2010, 15th-worst in all of baseball, suggesting his plate discipline is lacking. Further, Car-Go’s 2010 contact rate was just 77.6 (MLB average was 80.7).

According to Hit Tracker Online, 38 percent of Gonzalez’s home runs last season were categorized as “just enough,” meaning “the ball cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, or that it landed less than one fence height past the fence. This, compared to the MLB average of around 27 percent, suggests a few of Gonzalez’s dingers were perhaps the result of a touch of luck. (Hit Tracker data helped us predict a significant decrease in Prince Fielder’s HR total from 2009 to 2010.)

Although there’s no denying the 25-year-old’s raw talent (Baseball America ranked him as the Diamondbacks’ No. 1 prospect in 2008), Car-Go’s 2010 season is simply unrepeatable in the post-steroids era. Without a ridiculous .384 BABIP, his batting average will likely drop into the .300 range and his sketchy plate discipline could rear its ugly head.

While Ryan Braun is due for a bounce-back season and Carl Crawford is batting in an All-Star lineup, Carlos Gonzalez fits in as our third-ranked outfielder in 2011.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• No. 1: Albert Pujols
• No. 2: Hanley Ramirez
• No. 3: Miguel Cabrera
• No. 4: Troy Tulowitzki
• No. 5: Adrian Gonzalez
• No. 6: David Wright
• No. 7: Evan Longoria
• No. 8: Ryan Braun
• No. 9: Carl Crawford

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Carl Crawford has always had below-average power (13 HRs per in eight full seasons), and top-flight speed (50 steals per season). However, Crawford hit a career-high 19 bombs in 2010 while also posting a personal-best .188 ISO power (slugging percentage minus batting average).

After signing a monster seven-year, $142 million contract last month with the Boston Red Sox, the 29-year-old will likely bat second or third in a lineup featuring Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz. Given his lineup surroundings and Fenway’s short fence in right field, the left-handed hitting Crawford may finally surpass 20 home runs in 2011.

This, in addition to his history of durability (150-plus games in six of the last eight seasons), his ability to maintain a .300 batting average (something he’s done in five of the last six seasons), and his potential to swipe 50-plus bases give Crawford the nod over Carlos Gonzalez as our second-ranked outfielder heading into 2011.

If Crawford does indeed reach the 20-HR, 50-steal, .300 batting average plateau, he’ll be the first player to do so since Hanley Ramirez posted a ridiculous 29/51/.332 line in 2007.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• No. 1: Albert Pujols
• No. 2: Hanley Ramirez
• No. 3: Miguel Cabrera
• No. 4: Troy Tulowitzki
• No. 5: Adrian Gonzalez
• No. 6: David Wright
• No. 7: Evan Longoria
• No. 8: Ryan Braun

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why 5 Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero and Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook and Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Despite failing to hit 30-plus home runs for the first time in his four-year career last season, Ryan Braun remained among the top fantasy producers at a very deep outfield position. His 2010 stat line (101 runs, 25 HRs, 103 RBI, 14 steals, .304 batting average) was perhaps the worst of his career, which speaks volumes to Braun’s potential entering his age 27 season.

Although Braun hit only 25 homers last year, he set a career-high in doubles with 45, the fifth most in baseball.

One theory which could explain Braun’s “off” season stems from being plunked by Tommy Hanson on May 10 last year. He missed the next two games, and was arguably never the same after, especially in the power department:

• Before May 10: 32 games, 31 runs, 6 HRs, 28 RBI, 18/18 K/BB ratio, .359/.443/.594
• After May 10: 125 games, 70 runs, 19 HRs, 75 RBI, 33/87 K/BB ratio, .289/.342/.490

Braun wasn’t DL’d, but the Tommy Hanson pitch he took off the elbow clearly affected his production at the plate for the remaining four and a half months of the season. Given that he’s finally recovered, another 30-plus HR campaign is most certainly on the horizon.

If that isn’t enough to convince you that Braun is the number one fantasy outfielder, consider the growth in his plate discipline peripherals since he entered the league in 2007. A free-swinger who took just 29 walks in his rookie season, Braun has increased his walk rate and decreased his strikeout rate in each of his first four seasons:

BB%

• 2007: 5.9%
• 2008: 6.3%
• 2009: 8.1%
• 2010: 8.2%

K%

• 2007: 24.8%
• 2008: 21.1%
• 2009: 19.1%
• 2010: 17.0%

Similarly, Braun’s contact rate and swinging strike rate have improved each season:

Contact Rate

• 2007: 76.3%
• 2008: 79.2%
• 2009: 80.8%
• 2010: 81.8%

Swinging Strike Rate

• 2007: 12.1%
• 2008: 10.5%
• 2009: 8.7%
• 2010: 8.4%

The law of averages (among many other things which we’ll get into in a later post) suggest a regression for the top outfielder in 2010, Carlos Gonzalez, paving the way for Ryan Braun to be drafted as the number one outfielder in 2011.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• No. 1: Albert Pujols
• No. 2: Hanley Ramirez
• No. 3: Miguel Cabrera
• No. 4: Troy Tulowitzki
• No. 5: Adrian Gonzalez
• No. 6: David Wright
• No. 7: Evan Longoria

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

2010 saw Evan Longoria post the lowest home run total of his career (22), while his slugging percentage dropped for the third consecutive season. During the offseason, the guys who hit in front of (Carl Crawford) and behind (Carlos Pena) Longoria last season signed with the Red Sox and Cubs, respectively.

Looking forward to 2011, it’s any one’s guess as to who will fill the holes left in the Rays lineup. While these factors may scare off some fantasy managers, it’s important to understand how good Longoria has been in his first three seasons in the majors.

Despite missing 40 games in his 2008 rookie season while the Rays delayed his arbitration clock, the California native has posted career averages of 88 runs, 27 HRs, 101 RBI, 10 steals and a .297 batting average, placing him in elite company at the very thin third base position.

Despite the seemingly “down” year in 2010, Longoria has made significant strides in certain areas of his game over his first three seasons:

BB%

• 2008: 9.1%
• 2009: 10.7%
• 2010: 10.9%

K%

• 2008: 27.2%
• 2009 24.0%
• 2010: 21.6%

AVG

• 2008: .272
• 2009: .281
• 2010: .294 

When Longoria’s doubles (46 in 2010, tied for second most in the majors) start flying over the fence again, top-10 production will surely ensue. Entering his age 25 season, that time is likely now. Given his lack of protection in the lineup, Longoria is likely to see his walk rate increase for the fourth consecutive season. This will presumably lead to less RBI opportunities, dropping Longoria to No. 2 among our third base rankings.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• No. 1: Albert Pujols
• No. 2: Hanley Ramirez
• No. 3: Miguel Cabrera
• No. 4: Troy Tulowitzki
• No. 5: Adrian Gonzalez
• No. 6: David Wright

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com