Kuzul

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Injuries and a pitcher-friendly Citi Field have plagued the Mets bats over the last two seasons, including David Wright’s.

From 2005 to 2008, David Wright dominated National League pitching with season averages of 106 runs, 29 HRs, 112 RBI, 29 steals and a .311 batting average. In 2009, Citi Field’s inaugural season, Wright yielded much different results, as he posted career-lows (not counting his shortened rookie season) in runs (88), home runs (10), and RBI (72), and an alarming strikeout rate of 26.2 percent.

But 2010 saw Wright recapture his power, whacking 29 bombs while driving in 103 runs. He also swiped 19 bases and hit .283. His strikeout rate, however, increased for the third consecutive season:

K%

• 2008: 18.8%
• 2009: 26.2%
• 2010: 27.4%

Wright, generally known for his excellent plate discipline, has also seen his walk rate decrease in each of the last four seasons:

BB%

• 2007: 13.2%
• 2008: 12.8%
• 2009: 12.0%
• 2010: 10.3%

While these trends are somewhat discouraging, a healthy Jose Reyes (missed 29 games in 2010), Carlos Beltran (missed 98 games in 2010), and Jason Bay (missed 67 games in 2010) could go a long way towards helping Wright reverse those trends and returning to his 2007 30/100/100/30/.300 form—a ceiling above that of fellow third baseman Evan Longoria.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• No. 1: Albert Pujols
• No. 2: Hanley Ramirez
• No. 3: Miguel Cabrera
• No. 4: Troy Tulowitzki
• No. 5: Adrian Gonzalez

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Despite missing nearly six weeks last year with a broken wrist, Troy Tulowitzki was the only shortstop to hit more than 25 home runs in 2010. A red-hot month of September, which saw him hit .322 (37-for-115) with an incredible 15 HRs and 40 RBI, carried countless owners to fantasy baseball championships and landed him at No. 4 on our 2011 big board.

Though he’s been plagued by DL stints in two of the last three seasons, Tulowitzki has proven himself over the last four years to be capable of top-five production. While the rarefied air at Coors Field has undoubtedly contributed to his numbers, Tulowitzki has been very good on the road as well. Consider his home/road splits from last season:

• Home: 236 at-bats, 51 runs, 15 HRs, 59 RBI, .339 BA
• Road: 234 at-bats, 38 runs, 12 RBI, 36 RBI, .291 BA

Unlike teammate Carlos Gonzalez (who hit 91 points lower on the road than he did at home last season), Tulowitzki produces no matter where he hits.

If you pass on Tulo with the fourth pick, the production drop-off at shortstop is substantial. Don’t get stuck choosing between Jhonny Peralta and Jason Bartlett in the later rounds; fill your need with the game’s second-best shortstop while you can.

Oh, by the way, Tulowitzki is only 26 years old. The best has yet to come.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS  

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• No. 1: Albert Pujols
• No. 2: Hanley Ramirez
• No. 3: Miguel Cabrera

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed.

These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Tigers’ first baseman Miguel Cabrera is the epitome of consistency.

Discounting his rookie campaign, Cabrera has seven full seasons under his belt averaging 158 games player per year. Miggy’s career averages (again not counting his rookie season) would be worth the third overall pick: 100 runs, 34 homers, 117 RBI, .317 average.

Cabrera will likely be sandwiched between Magglio Ordonez and Victor Martinez as the Tigers’ cleanup hitter in 2011, providing him plenty of protection and opportunity.

Any thoughts of a letdown following his career-best 2010 campaign should be directed to the positive trends in his peripherals over the last three seasons:

OPS

• 2008: .887
• 2009: .942
• 2010: 1.042

BB%

• 2008: 8.2%
• 2009: 9.9%
• 2010: 13.7%

K%

• 2008: 20.5%
• 2009: 17.5%
• 2010: 17.3%

First base is deep, but other than Albert Pujols, Cabrera is the most consistent and reliable option available.

Draft him with the third pick and plug him into your lineup, knowing you’re set at first base for the rest of the season.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• No. 1: Albert Pujols
• No. 2: Hanley Ramirez

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Despite a 2010 campaign considered to be subpar (by his standards), Hanley Ramirez remains the second-ranked player in fantasy baseball heading into 2011. In fact, you can make an argument that the Marlins shortstop should be taken ahead of Albert Pujols based on position scarcity. Consider this: According to Mock Draft Central’s ADP, there are 10 first basemen currently being selected in the Top 50, opposed to just five shortstops.

Ramirez will bat third for the Marlins in 2011, though he’ll be without the protection of the franchise’s all-time home run leader Dan Uggla, who was traded to the Braves this offseason. Despite this, Hanley will be the leader of a very young and talented lineup in south Florida.

The elbow soreness that forced Ramirez to miss games late last season is no longer an issue, so pencil him in for 650-plus plate appearances in 2011. Any suggestions of Hanley relinquishing the top spot at shortstop to Troy Tulowitzki should be silenced when considering Ramirez’s remarkable durability. Over his five-year career, the 27-year-old has averaged 152 games played per season (Tulowitzki has averaged 132 games played since 2007) and owns the most impressive three-year power/speed average.  

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• No. 1: Albert Pujols

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Over the past 10 seasons, Albert Pujols has established himself as the most consistent player in baseball. His season averages (119 runs, 41 HRs, 123 RBI, eight steals, .331 batting average) are unreachable by most others’ standards.

His career lows (99 runs, 32 HRs, 103 RBI, .312 batting average) coupled with the fact that he’s never missed more than 19 games in a single season make him the safest pick on draft day.

There are, however, subtle signs that suggest some of his skills may be diminishing. For example, Pujols’ contact and zone contact rates have declined noticeably over the last three seasons:

Contact Rate

• 2008: 90.1 percent
• 2009: 86.6 percent
• 2010: 85.4 percent

Zone Contact Rate

• 2008: 95.8 percent
• 2009: 94.4 percent
• 2010: 90.6 percent

Despite these declines, Pujols is still well above the league averages of contact rate (80.7 percent) and zone contact rate (88.1 percent).

His hacks at pitches outside the strike zone are also trending in the wrong direction:

O-Swing Rate

• 2008: 21.6 percent
• 2009: 22.9 percent
• 2010: 27.5 percent

While Pujols’ 2010 O-swing rate was on the good side of the league average (29.3 percent), it’s still worth mentioning. In fact, these numbers may be the simple result of a league-wide boost in the quality of pitching we’ve seen over the last couple years. Either way, Pujols is still only 31 and remains the top producer in fantasy baseball.

 ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why 5 Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero and Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan is reporting Adrian Beltre has agreed to a six-year, $96 million contract with the Texas Rangers. The deal is pending a physical, and is not expected to be made official until next week.

On the surface, Beltre’s move from Fenway to Arlington is fantasy friendly, as Arlington had the sixth-highest ballpark factor in 2010 according to ESPN’s MLB Park Factor. Fenway Park was the seventh-highest.

In fact, Beltre’s career numbers at Rangers Ballpark are quite encouraging. In 51 games (219 at-bats) there, the soon-to-be 32-year-old has hit .306 with nine homers and 34 RBI.

It’s worth mentioning, however, what happened last time Beltre signed a multi-year contract.

In 2004, Beltre’s first contact year, the then 25-year-old hit .334, blasted 48 home runs and tallied 121 RBI for the Dodgers. In the following off-season, he signed a five-year, $64 million deal with Seattle.

Beltre’s fat contract seemed to weight him down in 2005, as the third baseman hit just .255 with 19 HRs and 87 RBI.

In his five years with the Mariners, Beltre never came close to putting up the monster numbers he posted in 2004, failing to top 30 HRs, 100 RBI or even a .280 batting average.

In 2009, the last season of his Seattle contract, Beltre underperformed still, hitting just .265 with eight homers while battling injuries.

Beltre landed a one-year, $10 million deal with Boston during the off-season, and became a fantasy commodity in 2010 once again. In 589 at-bats, he hit a whopping .321 (career average .275) with 28 HRs and 102 RBI.

So what should we expect from Beltre in 2011? Will the new contract hamper his desire to play? Or will his new surroundings in hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark aid his fantasy value?

I tend to think both factors will play into Beltre’s 2011 performance. It’s important to note, however, the true cause behind Beltre’s 2010 success.

In his five years with Seattle, Beltre averaged 21 HRs, 79 RBI and a .266 batting average. His 2010 totals with Boston were: 28 HRs, 102 RBI, .321 batting average.

The spike in home runs can probably be attributed to his home ballpark (Fenway opposed to Safeco). The increase in RBI is likely due to the lineup he was in (a potent Boston offense opposed to a dismal Seattle attack).

The difference in batting average? Luck. Beltre posted a .331 BABIP in 2010, a far cry from his career mark of .294. If (and when) his BABIP drops back down into the .300 range in 2011, he’s no better than a .270 hitter with 25 HRs. Solid? Yes. Good enough for top five at a thin third-base position or an ADP of 57 on Mock Draft Central? No.

FBI Forecast: 580 at-bats, 75 runs, 24 HRs, 90 RBI, 5 stolen bases, .269 batting average

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Last March, I conducted a study on pitchers who’ve posted a single-season ERA of 2.50 or less since 2000. (You can read that article here.)

In my research, I made several interesting discoveries. First, there were 11 different sub-2.50 ERA seasons between 2000 and 2005. Between 2006 and 2008, however, there were none.

Then 2009 saw four such pitching performances, as Zack Greinke (2.16), Chris Carpenter (2.24), Tim Lincecum (2.48) and Felix Hernandez (2.49) all posted ERAs below 2.50.

This recent trend supports the notion that hitters are no longer juicing, and thus pitchers are becoming more dominant. (Keep this in mind as you prepare for your 2011 fantasy drafts.)

Secondly, I found that of the 11 instances of a sub-2.50 ERA season, nine of them were followed up with a significantly higher ERA in the following season. In fact, on average, each pitcher’s ERA increased by 1.01 runs per nine innings in the season following their sub-2.50 campaign.

Here’s the list. The second column shows the year in which the pitcher’s sub-2.50 ERA was posted. Column four reveals the difference in ERA for the following season.

Based on these numbers, I predicted the 2010 ERA totals for the four pitchers who posted a sub-2.50 ERA in 2009:

Greinke’s ERA ballooned by more than two runs per nine. Carpenter’s and Lincecum’s ERA rose by approximately a full run per nine, just as the previous data suggested.

Hernandez completely blew up the system, becoming just the third pitcher since 2000 to lower his ERA following a sub-2.50 ERA season.  The other two to do this were Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez, who lowered their ERAs by .17 and .04, respectively. King Felix managed to lower his ERA by .22.

If we include the data from 2009-2010 with our previous findings, we should apply an increase of 0.99 runs per nine innings to any sub-2.50 ERA seasons from 2010.

Five pitchers posted a sub-2.50 ERA in 2010: Felix Hernandez (2.27), Josh Johnson (2.30), Clay Buchholz (2.33), Adam Wainwright (2.42) and Roy Halladay (2.44).

Plug in our plus-0.99 runs per nine to those totals, and we get the following 2011 ERA totals: Felix Hernandez (3.26), Josh Johnson (3.29), Clay Buchholz (3.32), Adam Wainwright (3.41) and Roy Halladay (3.43).

Although these ERAs remain respectable, they are a far cry from what most owners are expecting in 2011. 

You’ve been warned…again.  

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) has become one of the most popular stats among fantasy managers in recent years. To put it simply, BABIP measures the number of batted balls that fall safely for a hit (excluding home runs).

According to The Hardball Times Glossary, the exact formula for BABIP is: (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF).

The major league average for BABIP is usually around .300. In 2009, it was .299. The 2010 season saw the average BABIP fall slightly to .297.

Generally, if a player’s BABIP is well above the major league average, we can conclude he has experienced some amount of good luck.

However, this is not always true. Some players such as Ichiro Suzuki (career .357) and Joe Mauer (career .344) have a knack for finding holes in the defense, which results in an inflated BABIP.

What follows are the 10 highest BABIP from the 2009 season:

• David Wright (.394)
• Ichiro Suzuki (.384)
• Hanley Ramirez (.379)
• Joe Mauer (.373)
• Joey Votto (.372)
• Shin-Soo Choo (.370)
• Derek Jeter (.368)
• Michael Bourn (.366)
• Chris Coghlan (.365)
• Jason Bartlett (.364)

All 10 players saw a decline in their BABIP from 2009 to 2010. Not coincidentally, nine of those players posted a lower batting average in 2010 as well. The only exception was Joey Votto, who increased his batting average by .002 points.

On average, the 10 players listed lost .039 points off their BABIP from 2009 to 2010. Similarly, their batting averages dropped an average of .034 points.

This isn’t to say none of these players had good 2010 campaigns. Rather, it’s unreasonable to expect any player to post an unusually high BABIP in consecutive seasons.

So how can we apply this information to our 2011 rankings? We turn to the top 10 batting averages on balls in play from 2010:

• Austin Jackson (.396)
• Josh Hamilton (.390)
• Carlos Gonzalez (.384)
• Joey Votto (.361)
• Omar Infante (.355)
• Justin Upton (.354)
• Colby Rasmus (.354)
• Ichiro Suzuki (.353)
• Jayson Werth (.352)
• Joe Mauer (.348)

If the numbers previously mentioned hold true, these 10 players will (on average) experience a decrease of .039 points in their BABIP and 0.34 in their batting average this season. This is especially discouraging news for Austin Jackson owners (.293 BA in ‘10, .259 BA projected in ‘11).

Josh Hamilton and Carlos Gonzalez are also likely to see their batting averages drop in 2011, though it may be less noticeable. If Hamilton losses .034 points off his .359 BA, he’ll still post an impressive .325. Same goes for CarGo, as .034 points off of his 2010 BA puts him at .302 for 2011. These, of course, are still above average clips, but a decrease of .034 points is still a significant drop-off.

Based on the simple law of averages alone, it’s possible—if not likely—that the value of both Hamilton and Gonzalez will drop at least slightly over the course of the 2011 season.

Jayson Werth (.296 BA in ‘10, .262 projected in ‘11) may be in for a less than lucky season as well.

The aforementioned Ichiro Suzuki and Joe Mauer (who appeared in the top 10 of BABIP in 2009 and 2010) are less likely to experience a significant dip in batting average this season.

BABIP totals don’t always explain everything, however. Justin Upton and Colby Rasmus each finished among the league leaders in BABIP last season, suggesting they were among the “luckiest” hitters. And yet, somehow, they posted .273 and .276 batting averages, respectably. A reasonable explanation for this shall be saved for a future article.

For now, just beware of drafting Josh Hamilton or Carlos Gonzalez in the first round, as their values are sure to decline as their batting averages drop back down to earth in 2011.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

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PREVIOUS ARTICLES ON FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS:

• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero, Rivera, Soria & Wilson Are Only Reliable Options

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Most baseball fans believe success in the Home Run Derby translates to a power outage in the second half of the season. Josh Hamilton in 2008 comes to mind, but it would be foolish to make assumptions based on that one particular instance.

To answer this presumption, I tallied the first and second half home run totals of each Home Run Derby winner since 2000. The results may surprise you.

The following table shows the pre and post All-Star Break at-bat per home run rate (AB/HR) of each player in the season they won the Home Run Derby. (Note: an AB/HR rate of 14.0 simply means the player hit a home run once every 14 at-bats.)

Of the last 10 Home Run Derby winners, six of them went yard more frequently after winning the contest.

While most of the AB/HR rates didn’t change all that much, there were three major outliers.

In 2005, Bobby Abreu hit a homer once every 17.9 at-bats before the All-Star Break. In the second half, that number ballooned to 44.2.

Garret Anderson displayed a similar regression after his Home Run Derby success in 2003. After going yard once every 17.2 at-bats in the first half, his AB/HR rate sky rocketed to 40.5 following the Mid Summer Classic.

Miguel Tejada’s Home Run Derby title in 2004 translated to big time power, as his AB/HR rate dropped from 24.6 in the season’s first half to 15.6 after the All-Star Break.

After averaging the totals over the last 10 years, the data revealed that winning the Home Run Derby generally had very little effect on a player’s AB/HR rate.

If anything, the success rendered a slightly better AB/HR rate, as the 10 Home Run Derby champions combined to average one home run per 15.7 at-bats prior to the All-Star Break, while posting a 15.3 rate following it.

If we count only the players who hit the most homers in each Home Run Derby (opposed to the actual winner), the results are very similar. Despite Josh Hamilton’s power drop-off (17.9 AB/HR pre ASB, 22.5 post) following his 35-HR show in 2008, the average AB/HR rate dropped from 15.6 (pre ASB) to 14.9 (post ASB).

So what does this all mean?

Well, despite what some people may tell you, David Ortiz’s success in the 2010 Home Run Derby isn’t a good reason to trade him in your fantasy league. In fact, Papi’s highest home run totals by month are September, August and July, and his career AB/HR rate following the All-Star Break (15.2) is better than his first half total (17.3).

Bottom line: Big Papi could be in for a big second half, and his success at the Home Run Derby isn’t going to change that.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

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More from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Mariners Trade Cliff Lee to Rangers for Justin Smoak: Fantasy Impact
• Why You Should Sell High on Brandon Phillips
• Giants Trade Bengie Molina to Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Will the Real Casey McGehee Please Stand Up?
• Why Josh Johnson Is Better Than Ubaldo Jimenez

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Prospect Report:

• 2010 MLB Draft: When Will Bryce Harper Become Fantasy-Relevant?
• Mike Stanton’s 2010 Fantasy Value
• Does Rangers’ Justin Smoak Have Fantasy Value in 2010?
• Does Mets’ Ike Davis Have Fantasy Value in 2010?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

After weeks of anticipation, Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Cliff Lee finally has a new home.

Just hours after it was reported that the New York Yankees were close to acquiring Lee’s services, the Mariners dealt the 31-year-old southpaw to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Justin Smoak and minor leaguers Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Matt Lawson.

Mariners reliever Mark Lowe was also sent to Texas as part of the deal.

In terms of fantasy value, Lee’s has nowhere to go but down. 

After 13 starts (103 2/3 innings) this season, Lee owns a sparkling 2.34 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, both of which top his 2008 Cy Young Award-winning totals. He also boasts a jaw-dropping strikeout-to-walk ratio of 89 to 6.

In his last eight starts, Lee has lasted at least eight innings seven times, including three complete games.

Lee’s BABIP and strand rate are normal, but his xFIP is nearly a full run higher than his current ERA.

In Seattle, Lee benefited from the spacious fields of Safeco (the fourth-best park in which to pitch in terms of runs scored, according to MLB Park Factors). Texas, however, is the fifth-worst park in which to pitch in terms of runs scored.

Since 2008 (Lee’s Cy Young season), the former Expo, Indian, and Phillie has pitched in Arlington three times. In those three starts as the visiting pitcher, Lee was rocked to the tune of a 7.10 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 19 innings.

It is worth noting, however, that Lee allowed just two runs in nine innings at Rangers Ballpark earlier this season.

Still, a slight drop-off should be expected. Is he still a top-10 pitcher for the remainder of the season? Probably. Top-five? Absolutely not.

Seattle’s big return, switch-hitting first baseman Justin Smoak, will be inserted into the Mariners’ lineup, possibly in the six-hole. His value takes a slight hit playing for an offensively-challenged team in a pitcher’s park.

The potential middle-of-the-order superstar has experienced some tough luck through his first 235 Major League at-bats, falling victim to a .238 BABIP. Smoak’s 23.9 percent line drive rate, however, suggests better days are ahead. (For more on Justin Smoak, including 2010 projections, click here.)

Smoak’s departure opens a spot in the Rangers’ lineup for Chris Davis, who was recalled from Triple-A on Friday. In 293 plate appearances with Oklahoma City this season, the 24-year-old has hit 19 doubles, 10 homers and boasts a .354/.403/.555 triple slash.

While Davis struggled mightily with the Rangers earlier this season, his 2009 second-half performance (six home runs, 26 RBI, .308 average in 133 at-bats) following a short minor league stint could be a sign of things to come.

His raw power is undeniable, but so too are his strikeout totals. He’s worth a cautious look in most leagues.

Blake Beavan is a former first-rounder who—at 6’7″ and 250 pounds—projects as a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater. The 21-year-old owns a 2.78 ERA, a 5.6 K/9 rate, and a 1.0 BB/9 in 110 innings at Double-A this season.

Neither Josh Lueke or Matt Lawson rank among the Rangers’ top-30 prospects according to Baseball America. Lueke boasts ridiculous strikeout and walk rates in 38 1/3 relief innings this season between Single-A and Double-A, but at age 25, his long-term value is bleak. Matt Lawson is a 24-year-old second baseman/outfielder playing in Double-A. He’s a long-shot prospect and shouldn’t be on anyone’s fantasy radar.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

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More from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Why You Should Sell High on Brandon Phillips
• Giants Trade Bengie Molina to Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Will the Real Casey McGehee Please Stand Up?
• Why Josh Johnson Is Better Than Ubaldo Jimenez
• Waiver Wire Fliers: Replacing Chase Utley

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Prospect Report:

• 2010 MLB Draft: When Will Bryce Harper Become Fantasy-Relevant?
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• Does Rangers’ Justin Smoak Have Fantasy Value in 2010?
• Does Mets’ Ike Davis Have Fantasy Value in 2010?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com