Kuzul

With the 16th overall pick in the 2010 MLB Amateur Draft, the Cubs selected Hayden Simpson, a right-handed pitcher out of the University of Southern Arkansas. The former “Mulerider” posted a 13-1 record in 15 starts to accompany a 1.81 ERA. He also threw an astounding 131 strikeouts in 99 1/3 innings while walking only 35.

Simpson stands as a physically unimposing presence on the mound at 6’0″, 170 lbs, but he throws with good velocity and solid mechanics.

His delivery is fairly simple with a smooth high leg kick, explaining the similarities to Roy Oswalt that Cubs’ Scouting Director Tim Wilken compared him to (he also compared him to Tim Lincecum, probably for his ability to throw four above-average pitches).

Simpson throws a mid-90s fastball (which may improve if he fills in his frame a bit more), a plus slider, a plus curveball, and a circle-change.

So with that kind of repertoire, why was it a shock for him to be taken so high as 16th overall?

His competition.

Facing inferior competition makes the transition to professional ball much, much harder. In Division II baseball, you can overpower hitters with a mid-90s fastball and make your stuff much more deceptive. This is Simpson’s flaw.

There are also questions as to whether he can make a successful transition to the big leagues as a starting pitcher. Being undersized, he may not have the body to absorb the physical abuse that a 32-start season would entail.

There is little doubt about his athleticism, as he was two-sport star at the high school level—a type of draftee Wilken prefers.

Little is known about Simpson, as he was expected to be a fourth or fifth round talent. However, the Cubs stuck to their guns, and went after him even though there were far more first-round talents available.

This could lead for the Cubs to take high-potential picks in later rounds because of the money saved in the first round, similar to when the Cubs drafted outfielder Tyler Colvin with their first overall selection in 2006, then using that saved money for pitcher Jeff Samardzija.

Whatever happens in the coming rounds of the draft, the Cubs and Hayden Simpson will be evaluated closely due to the surprise of the draft.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Over the past several years Carlos Zambrano has been the keystone to the Cubs starting rotation, leading the group as the ace since the days of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.

The fact of the matter is that Zambrano hasn’t posted an ERA under 3.50 since 2007, and for a “power pitcher,” he has only exceeded 200 strikeouts twice in his seven year tenure as a starting pitcher.

Zambrano has always dazzled fans with both his electric fastball and temper, but the fastball that reached the mid-90s and posted positive win values each year of his career is showing signs of decline.

Zambrano’s fastball is averaging 90.9 mph, down from his career average of 92.1. He is also throwing it 52.4 percent of the time, far down from the 62.7 percent last season, as well as the +70 percent seasons of 2003-2005.

Correlating with the decline of fastball use is the increased use of his split-finger fastball, which has been just a slightly above-average pitch, contrary to popular belief.

The fastball, once a plus-plus pitch is currently posting a run value of -7.0, easily the worst of his career.

Perhaps one reason Lou Piniella chose to pitch him out of the bullpen was to focus on his fastball more, and less on his secondary pitches.

Moving forward, Zambrano is owed $17.87 million this year and next year, $18 million on 2012, and holds a player option for $19.25 million in 2013 if he receives Cy Young consideration, according to Cot’s Contracts.

Zambrano has to be a starter for the Cubs to get the most value out of him, and his contract, and he must focus on improving his fastball in order to succeed in the coming seasons.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Top Pitching Prospect Andrew Cashner was called up recently, and I was alarmed on how little was being written of him within the Chicago Cubs blogosphere. This has most to do with his performance, being neither good nor bad, since he only threw one pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 31

Cashner came into the game in the eighth inning, relieving ‘super-stud’ Sean Marshall, who had given up a run on a Bobby Crosby single. Cashner came into the game with the tides shifted in Pittsburgh’s favor, and only 16.1% chance of winning.

With the leverage index now at 1.0, former Cubs under-performer Ronny Cedeno stepped into the batter’s box with slow-footed right fielder Garrett Jones on second and Crosby on first.

Cashner’s first, and only pitch as a major-leaguer (as of yet) was a letter-high fastball outside the zone to Cedeno. The pitch, a fastball, had some giddy-up on it, registering in at 95.2 m.p.h., which was hit for a fly-out to Starlin Castro. This ‘sky-rocketed’ his Winning Percentage Added (WPA) to 0.03.

Currently, even though his ERA remains at 0.00, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) stat puts him at 3.12, but furthermore, his xFIP (which takes into account fly balls and park factors) has him pegged at 7.21. He’ll have to work on that one.

In all seriousness, Cashner made the transition from his bullpen role at Texas Christian University to a starting role in the Cubs minor system fairly well. He definitely has good stuff, although he will need to improve his change-up and fastball command if he hopes to stick it out in the rotation.

The worst-case scenario for the Cubs is Cashner struggling as a starter, and transitions to the pen with probable success, since he needs only worry about his blazing fastball and plus-slider.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Ryan Theriot has compiled 54 hits ranking him second among National League hitters and representing a great start to the season at the plate. This has led to a decent .307 batting average.

What is somewhat concerning is his lack of extra base hits. Of his 54 hits, only five are of the extra base variety. His Isolated Power Index (ISO) has him sitting at .034, worst in the N.L., and second worst in the majors behind (cough) Juan Pierre.

Expecting Theriot to match his career high 7 homers from last season is a bit too much to ask, as that’s just not his game.

Arguably, Theriot’s best season came in 2008 when he hit only one home run, but also managed a .307 batting average. That season he was far more patient than he currently is, walking at an 11 percent rate and seeing 3.7 pitches per at bat. This year, he is walking 3.7 percent of the time and seeing 3.4 pitches per at bat.

Even though Theriot is hitting for average, his performance is simply not acceptable for a major league second baseman. His wOBA sits at a career low .309, which is reflected in his 0.2 WAR.

Theriot may be hitting for a medium-high average, but don’t be fooled. He’s not hitting for power, not walking and not well (-2.3 UZR). Theriot was thought to be an upgrade over the second base platoon of Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker, but according to numbers that may not be the case.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Marlon Byrd has been essentially carrying the Chicago Cubs, sporting a .340 average to go along with his .951 OPS. His 51 hits are second to only Martin Prado in the National League.

A glaring issue with Byrd’s season thus far, is his shockingly low walk rate. He has walked only three times, good enough for the worst walk rate in the majors (1.9 percent). Byrd has never been mistaken for a walk machine, but he would set a career low at this pace.

Of course, Byrd’s walk rate is acceptable so long as he continues his hit parade, but is that possible?

Byrd’s Batting Average on Balls in Play is high (.358), but it is possible he can sustain that rate. Byrd has also taken advantage of the fastballs he’s seen, producing 11.9 runs above average against that pitch.

Behind his low walk rate is his reluctance to lay off pitches in the zone. Byrd has been attacking offerings in the strike zone, and his aggressiveness has neutralized any weaknesses against off speed pitches, and strengthened his ability to hit fastballs.

It remains to be seen if he can continue his torrid pace, although Byrd certainly has the ability to produce at the level he is at for the remainder of the season.

Looking at Byrd’s contract, he signed a back-loaded deal (typical of Jim Hendry) in the off-season. He is paid only $3 million this season, but he gets $5.5 million next year, and  $6.5 million in 2012. Can Byrd perform at this level for the next two and a half years?

A lot of Cubs fans may look at this season and be pleased with individual performances, but I look at this season as being lost. I am more interested to see his performance repeated in the next two years, and maybe see this as the first successful free agent signing since Ted Lilly.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Since Carlos Marmol was moved to full-time closer duties, a big question was not how Marmol would perform in the new role, but who would replace him as the set-up man or relief ace role.

Sean Marshall has answered all those questions, dominating opposing offenses as a full-time reliever this year.

Marshall currently sports a sparkling 2.70 ERA in 18 relief appearances, which doesn’t show how truly awesome he is pitching, as his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is sitting at 1.29.

He is striking batters out at a ridiculous 11.34 K/9 clip, and he is hardly walking anyone, leading to an otherworldly 7.00 K/BB.

What, you might ask, is the change from previous years?

Well, for starters, he is using his knee-buckling curve ball 10 percent more this year than in years past, and his average fastball velocity has increased from 87 mph to 89 mph. In addition to eliminating the change-up from his repertoire, he has limited the use of his cutter. This limits him to using his fastball, curve, and slider a good portion of the time, all the while focusing on the effectiveness of those pitches.

It’s not even as if Marshall is a left-handed specialist—he’s dominating right-handed batters to a .192 average.

Marshall is just one of those pitchers who can turn it up a notch in relief roles, whereas he had to conserve his energy (and relegate to using less effective pitches) as a starter.

Look for Marshall to dominate the seventh and eighth innings just as Marmol has in years past, without the mid-90’s heat and frustrating walk rate.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

You look at the Cubs’ record, and you can’t help but grimace. Their record, 14-17, is right in line with their Pythagorean Record, 15-16. The Cubs struggle somewhat in one-run games, going 3-6 in such contests.

The Cubs struggle mightily on the road, going 7-11 on road games, as opposed to 7-6 at Wrigley.

Let’s gander at their pitching.

The Cubs are actually pitching very well. They are first in the league in strike-outs per walk, and boast the best Contact Percentage.

The starting pitching has preserved the bullpen well, limiting the relievers to the fourth least innings-pitched in the National League. That has led to the fourth-best relief Runs Above Replacement, even with negative efforts from Jeff Gray, John Grabow, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, and Jeff Samardzija.

On the flip side, none of the starters are posting negative seasonal RAR efforts. All in all, the Cubs have the fourth-best RAR in the National League, behind the Cardinals, Rockies, and Giants—all great pitching staffs.

You look at their team ERA (4.50), and it’s slightly below average. Why?

Well, looking at their batted ball statistics, you’ll see that they are 14th in the leage in both batting average on balls in play (.326, .300 is the average) and left on base percent (66.3%, 71% is the average).

So looking at those two stats, you could say that the Cubs are a bit unlucky. A nifty little stat, Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) adjusts for that, giving the Cubs a 3.87 xFIP, good enough for second in the league.

Maybe their fielding is the problem.

The Cubs are decent enough fielders, maybe even above average. They rank fifth in UZR and fielding RAR in the league.

That can’t be the problem, what about their hitting?

The Cubs are fourth in the league in batting Runs Above Replacement level, second in walks per strikeouts, and third in average, OPS, and wOBA, which is widely accepted in sabermetric circles as the premier batting statistic.

The glaring issue with their batting seems to be timely hitting. Their clutch rating (which measures how well hitters perform in late innings, runners in scoring position, and such) is dead last in the majors , at -2.86. The next “best” is the Brewers at -1.12. Needless to say, the Cubs need to pick it up in the clutch.

If they can perform at even a league average level in high leverage situations, the Cubs could push for a good shot at the wild card.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com