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Why the Kansas City Royals Could Repeat as American League Champions

When the Kansas City Royals won the American League last year, many thought it might have been a fluke. The team had to make an incredible comeback just to make the playoffs, then relied on historic bullpen performances and highlight-reel defense on its way to the World Series.

When 2014 ace James Shields signed a contract with the San Diego Padres during free agency, it seemed extremely unlikely for Kansas City to repeat last year’s success. But the team is off to a hot start—it is 7-2 as of this writing, after starting the season 7-0—and its lineup has been mashing. It’s early yet, but it seems perfectly fair to call the Royals contenders.

So what are the keys to Kansas City’s season? What makes the Royals contenders? Here are three things to think about.

 

Their Offseason Was Better Than You Thought

The Royals’ offseason moves this year garnered a range of criticism. Some, like Grantland’s Ben Lindbergh citing FanGraphs stats, argued that Kansas City took a step backward when it replaced Nori Aoki, Billy Butler and James Shields (5.7 WAR combined) with Kendrys Morales, Alex Rios and Edinson Volquez (minus-0.8 WAR combined, including Kris Medlen).

Others, like ESPN.com’s Christina Kahrl, credited Royals general manager Dayton Moore with an effective offseason and predicted that Kansas City would compete for a title once again.

The truth is somewhere in the middle.

Lindbergh was correct that Morales, Rios and Volquez are not equivalent to Shields, Butler and Aoki. But, as he noted, the former three are projected to improve dramatically in 2015, and there was never much of a chance for Shields to return anyway.

Nine games in, Rios is hitting .321 with an .809 OPS (although he’s now headed to the DL). Morales is even better—.351 average and 1.036 OPS—and the Royals lineup in general has destroyed opposing pitchers. Seven Royals are hitting over .300, and two players (Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer) are likely to improve upon their comparatively slow starts.

Volquez is 1-1, but he’s allowed just four runs and nine hits in 15.2 innings, good for a tiny WHIP of 0.70. He’s coming off two Tommy John surgeries, so the risk of injury is notable. But if he can stay healthy, Volquez will have been a smart (and economic) offseason pickup.

Most importantly, the rest of the Royals roster went largely unchanged, and production hasn’t diminished. The otherworldly trio of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland have allowed just three hits and zero runs in their combined 10 innings pitched. Shortstop Alcides Escobar and catcher Salvador Perez are off to hot starts as well.

And Lorenzo Cain remains Lorenzo Cain:

 

Defense and Speed

The Royals’ postseason success last year could be attributed to any number of things: clutch hitting, an unhittable bullpen, key contributions from unexpected sources and even their delirious fanbase. But Kansas City’s defense, and its aggressive baserunning, was arguably what kept the team alive.

Let’s start with defense. In last year’s ALDS, the Royals were saved on two occasions by spectacular defensive plays. First, in the second game of the series, Jarrod Dyson did this:

That double play was essential to the Royals victory, given that it preserved a 1-1 tie that wasn’t broken until the 11th inning.

Then, in Game 3, Cain topped Dyson by robbing the Angels of two consecutive hits (and at least one run):

Surprisingly, Kansas City was a well-below-average defensive team in 2014. But the Royals have retained their speedy youngsters and (at this point) have the league’s sixth-best defense in 2015.

On a different note, the Royals were arguably the best-running team in baseball last year. Per SportingCharts, the Royals stole an average of 0.94 bases per gameand 15 more bases than the second-place team. That aggressive running paid off, particularly in the team’s remarkable Wild Card Game victory against Oakland:

Kansas City is off to a fast start on the bases again, with eight stolen bases in nine games (a number similar to last year’s average). Rios and Cain have stolen two bases each, and while the absurdly fast Dyson hasn’t swiped a base yet, he’s only appeared in three games.

Pitching and batting are less predictable than running and defense. The Royals can expect to improve upon last year’s defense and continue their success on the basepaths.

 

Youth

This is Royals fans’ biggest cause for excitement. In Kansas City’s loss to Minnesota last night, eight of the Royals’ nine batters were 30 years old or younger—and Morales is just 31. That’s crazy. Eric Hosmer is only 25, Perez is 24 and the oft-criticized Mike Moustakas is 26.

On the other side of the ball, the Royals’ superlative relief trio—Davis, Herrera and Holland—are all 29 or younger. The starting rotation is older (four of the five starters are 31 or older), but the team’s most exciting pitching prospect, Yordano Ventura, is just 23. Ventura is young, and his stuff is nasty:

 

The Bottom Line

The Royals are young. They can run and play defense, and their offense—so far—has been dominant. Baseball is a long, long season, and the team will undoubtedly grapple with injuries, slumps and downturns. But there is good reason for the Royals to expect a postseason berth.

And, as Kansas City fans saw in last year’s Wild Card Game, anything can happen in the playoffs.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Red Sox Continue to Make Splash Signing Highly Touted Cuban IF Yoan Moncada

The Boston Red Sox continued their eye-catching offseason on Monday, agreeing to terms with coveted Cuban teenager Yoan Moncada after a lengthy bidding war.

Moncada, a 19-year-old infielder, will receive a reported $31.5 million signing bonus and will cost the Red Sox a total of $63 million, per Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com. The Yankees, Padres and Dodgers, according to Edes, were among the other teams pursuing Moncada.

The move is the latest development in a busy Boston offseason following the team’s unexpectedly abysmal 2014 season. In November, the team signed Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, two of the more enticing free agents on the market, to five-year agreements worth $90 million and $100 million, respectively. And in August, the Red Sox inked 27-year-old Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo to a seven-year deal worth $72.5 million.

In Cuba last year, Moncada hit .277 and played almost exclusively second base. Dustin Pedroia, however, is under contract with Boston through 2021, and the Red Sox are now in the enviable position of having too many deserving infielders to play at once.

The team boasts a slew of young talent (like 22-year-old shortstop Xander Bogaerts) but has no shortage of proven contributors (like Sandoval, Pedroia, and first baseman Mike Napoli). In that light, it appears likely that Moncada will eventually switch positions; in any event, according to Edes, the Cuban teenager will begin his Red Sox career with one of Boston’s minor league affiliates.

Reaction to the Moncada signing was generally positive. Several sources compared Moncada to a younger Robinson Cano, noting the Cuban’s switch-hitting ability, athleticism and versatility. There seems virtually no doubt that Moncada has superstar potential.

“He’s [Moncada] got a lot of ability and projects to be a quality player,” said New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, one of Moncada‘s unsuccessful suitors, via Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe. “I don’t think anybody disagrees with the ability.”

The move was not without risk, however. Not only has Boston committed $63 million to an untested teenager, and not only does Boston have plenty of infield talent, but the Red Sox have a recent history of unsuccessful gambles.

In late 2006, remember, the team spent $51 million for the rights to negotiate with Japanese ace pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, whom the team eventually signed for a further $52 million. Matsuzaka was not a complete bust in Boston, but most would comfortably argue that he was not worth what he cost.

Boston has bet big on Moncada and Castillo.

Given its offseason spending spree, Boston appears likely to continue what has been a strange run of alternating success and failure. The team won a World Series title in 2013—its third championship in 10 years—but missed the playoffs in both 2012 and 2014. Today, however, the Boston lineup is deep, talented and experienced, and the Boston brass is clearly expecting the team to compete. Its projected Opening Day lineup figures to look something like this:

  • Xander Bogaerts, SS
  • Dustin Pedroia, 2B
  • David Ortiz, DH
  • Pablo Sandoval, 3B
  • Hanley Ramirez, LF
  • Mike Napoli, 1B
  • Rusney Castillo, CF
  • Christian Vazquez, C
  • Mookie Betts, RF

The Red Sox, despite their abysmal 2014 campaign, are in a good place. The lineup above is heavy on right-handed hitting but includes five players (Ortiz, Sandoval, Ramirez, Napoli and Castillo) with proven power hitting ability. Three players listed above (Bogaerts, Vazquez and Betts) are under the age of 24, and all nine boasted on-base percentages above .300 in their most recent seasons.

What’s more, the Boston bench includes a further slew of young talent (OF Jackie Bradley Jr., utility man Brock Holt) and productive veterans (OF Shane Victorino, OF/1B Allen Craig). The Red Sox should be able to trot out a dangerous lineup at all times.

If Boston hopes to compete in 2015, it must address its glaring lack of starting pitchers. Right now, its top two starters project to be Rick Porcello and Clay Buchholz. That will strike fear into approximately zero opposing teams, particularly come playoff time. The Boston brass has done an impressive job of restocking what should be a top-tier lineup. But it will not be enough without better pitchers.

None of this, however, figures to involve Moncada. It is unclear whether or not the 19-year-old can immediately contribute at the major league level, and all signs suggest that he will spend significant time in the minors. But even if he doesn’t play an inning at Fenway Park this year, the Red Sox should be thrilled to have him.

Boston, with Moncada, now has six players under the age of 24 with All-Star potential. Bradley Jr. is a defensive wizard, and his struggles at the plate should improve with experience. Bogaerts, Betts and Moncada appear likely to become above-average MLB players, and Boston also controls Blake Swihart and Garin Cecchini, two of the highest-rated prospects in baseball.

The important thing for Boston fans to remember is that the $63 million their team just spent on Moncada will likely not produce results for another two or three years. But they can rest easy knowing that their talent-laden team has a bright future.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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