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Major League Baseball went 46 seasons between batting Triple Crown winners.

Miguel Cabrera took the honor last year and was the first player to lead the league in batting average, home runs and RBIs since Carl Yastrzemski did the trick in 1967 with the Boston Red Sox.

Cabrera had a batting average of .330, hit 44 home runs and drove in 139 to do it. Ironically enough when Yastrzemski won the Triple Crown in 1967, Frank Robinson pulled the treble the season before.
So, it can be done in back-to-back years. How likely Cabrera is to do that is another story.

Can he match those numbers again this year?

Cabrera is only 30 years old. He is still in the prime of his career and certainly capable of producing such a gaudy numbers again.

With Prince Fielder in the lineup behind him, he certainly will get good pitches to hit. With Fielder protecting him in the lineup, Cabrera’s walk total dropped from 108 in 2011 to 66 last year. At the same time, his number of plate appearances jumped from 688 to 697.

American League pitchers gave Cabrera better pitches to hit and Cabrera took full advantage increasing his hit total to a career-high of 205.

If he continues to choose his pitches well then certainly he could hit at least .330 again. In 2011, Cabrera hit for career-high of .344 and has had seven seasons where he has hit no worse than .320.

While his 44 home runs was a career-high, Cabrera has hit at least 30 the last seven seasons and hit more than 35 three of his last five seasons. His power stroke is one of the most stable in the game and could break 40 again easily in 2013.

The wild card, of course, is runs batted in. He needs the top two hitters in the lineup to reach base enough to give him a chance to drive in enough runs. Cabrera has driven in at least 100 runs every season since 2004. Three times in the last five years, Cabrera has driven in a least 125.

So, to answer the question of whether he can match those numbers again, yes he can.

Will that be good enough to lead the league in 2013?

Let’s start with batting average first. Cabrera won the batting title by four points over Los Angeles Angels rookie Mike Trout, .330 to .326. Adrian Beltre of the Texas Rangers was third at .321. Since Cabrera has already had seven seasons of hitting at least .320, he should finish no worse than third. If he were to hit .344 again, he probably would win it outright.

The home run race would be tougher.

Five AL players hit at least 40 home runs in 2012. If Cabrera is to repeat as a Triple Crown winner, he is going to have to match his 44 homer total of a year ago. If he were to match his previous career high of 36, that would only be good enough for sixth place on last year’s list. If he’s going to do this, he has to hit at least 40.

Runs batted in may be his strongest suit.

Yes, the statistic that some fans love to hate may be the easiest one of the three for him to repeat.
Cabrera’s 139 total last year won the RBI crown by 11 over Josh Hamilton and third-place by 29. Seven times over the last nine seasons Cabrera’s number would’ve put him at least third in last year’s RBI race.

Hamilton will probably be his closest competition this year. In switching from the Texas Rangers to the Angels, he will now be in the same lineup as Trout and Albert Pujols. If Hamilton bats cleanup then he can run away with a monster RBI number.

If he bats in front of Pujols, however, the heating Cabrera should be on equal footing even with Trout leading off for the Angels. Cabrera is a better overall hitter than Hamilton.

While Cabrera repeating his Triple Crown winner may not be probable, it certainly is plausible. A player needs a certain amount of luck to pull it off to begin with. Cabrera has the skills to go with that luck.

Follow me on Twitter @ronjuckett

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One of the big question marks for the Detroit Tigers heading in to the 2013 season is exactly what role Rick Porcello will have with the team—if he is even still with the Tigers when the season starts.

The Tigers have tried the entire offseason to unload the 24-year-old pitcher, but have yet to hear an offer they are willing to take.

Entering his fifth season in Detroit, Porcello has started at least 27 games in each of his first four seasons. After reportedly settling with the club for $5.1 million and avoiding arbitration, that is not bad money for someone who figures to be their No. 5 starter.

Ideally, the Tigers would like to get either a better defensive option at shortstop or a viable closer.

Before the winter meetings, it had been speculated that Detroit would ship Porcello to the Pittsburgh Pirates for closer Joel Hanrahan. That deal never happened and Pittsburgh eventually dealt Hanrahan to the Boston Red Sox.

Other teams that have shown interest include the Arizona Diamondbacks (via Nick Piecoro) and the San Diego Padres (via Bill Center), but both seemed to back off rather quickly when hearing what the Tigers would like in return.

Porcello’s biggest problem is he really does not fool that many hitters.

In 176.1 innings last year, Porcello gave up a league-high 226 hits. He also does not strike out many batters, fanning just 107 last year—which was a career high.

Another worry that teams might have is that Porcello has 691.2 innings on his arm. For a pitcher who has yet to hit the prime of his career, that is an awful lot of mileage in a short period of time.

The other big concern is that his hits per nine innings ratio has gone up every season since entering the league. 

When he finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2009, he averaged just 9.3 hits per nine innings. After two seasons of seeing that number rise to 10.4, it rose last year to a high of 11.5.

Those are numbers for a pitcher whose career is headed in the wrong direction.

For someone who was so obviously shopped around and is still under team salary control until the 2015 season, it seems like the Tigers have overestimated the market for Porcello.

So is having Porcello around a bad thing? The short answer is no.

As good as the Tigers’ starting pitching is on paper, a team can never have enough depth to fill holes when injuries come about.

Likely fighting with Drew Smyly for that fifth spot in the rotation in spring training, Porcello could easily become an innings-eater out of the pen to start the season or take the spot in the back end if one of the other five starters misses any time.

Another scenario for the Detroit is to see what the situation is at the July trade deadline. Teams could be willing to overpay for Porcello for a chance at a playoff spot if they are desperate enough.

The fact that the Tigers and Porcello settled before his arbitration hearing says that Detroit is more than willing to hold on to him for the time being.

While it is doubtful that the Tigers will sign him to a deal that would go into his free agency years at this point, a strong 2013 performance could make Porcello that much more expensive or a lot more valuable on the trade market.

Follow Ron on Twitter @ronjuckett

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The Boston Red Sox need to finalize their deal with Mike Napoli.

With Tuesday’s news that the Washington Nationals have re-signed Adam LaRoche to a two-year deal (via Washington Times), the chances of finding someone else to play first base for the Red Sox this year are dwindling to zero.

Yes, we know they tried Bobby Abreu out in Venezuela, and some have suggested even playing David Ortiz at first full-time, but they really are not even short-term options to play the position.

When the Red Sox and Napoli originally agreed (via Comcast Sports New England) to a three-year deal for $39 million it did seem like an overpay, but now with the other reasonable free agents off the board, this is a deal they have to finish.

It would be very understandable if the Red Sox were now skittish about giving Napoli three years—his health is a concern, along with his declining production—but they have let this drag on way too long and frankly do not have any other options.

Either way, Napoli signing does not make the Red Sox into a playoff team.

Yes, they certainly have improved from last year’s 69–93 debacle, but there are still too many question marks for them to really contend in a division that has reinvented itself this offseason.

The market is running out of places for Napoli as well.

With just five weeks to go until pitchers and catchers report for spring training, there are not a lot of first base jobs open, and he probably is at the point of his career where his body will not let him be an everyday catcher.

LaRoche’s signing also has taken most of Napoli‘s leverage away. He would be very hard pressed to get any other team besides the Red Sox to agree to the same terms that he negotiated with Boston before.

Finalizing this deal would also allow the Red Sox to trade either Ryan Lavarnway or Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

Napoli can be the third catcher if they need one, and also fill in as designated hitter when Ortiz needs a break.

For this to be stretching out as long as this has is now ridiculous. The Red Sox need to get this deal done so they can go to spring training with that part of the roster solved, or finally come up with a plan B for someone else to play first base.

Either way, enough is enough.

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The New York Yankees reportedly have signed third baseman Kevin Youkilis to a one-year deal worth $12 million pending his physical, according to Fox Sports insider Ken Rosenthal. 

Source: #Yankees sign Youkilis, one year, $12M.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 11, 2012

The 33-year-old veteran will be the Opening Day starter at third for the Yankees as Alex Rodriguez continues to recover from an injury and surgery to his left hip.

As a former member of the Boston Red Sox, the Yankees are quite familiar with his style of play and his ability to work pitchers deep into counts.

He is also expected to DH from time to time and spell Mark Teixeira at first base. 

After a falling out last year with then-Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine, Youkilis was shipped off to the Chicago White Sox for pitcher Zach Stewart and outfielder Brent Lillibridge.

In half a season on the South Side, Youkilis hit 15 home runs and drove in 46.

The Yankees are able to fill a huge hole at third with this move.

Youkilis will actually make the same money in 2013, according to Cot’s Contracts, as he did this year.

Although Youkilis has been hampered by injuries—most notably to a shoulder—he is still a decent glove at third and a Gold Glove guy at first.

Yes, the average is down—hitting just .235 last year in Boston and Chicago—but his will to win has never got in the way.

That is part of why Youkilis was so revered during his years in Boston. He was the anti-Manny Ramirez. 

Kevin Youkilis is one of the most intense baseball players ever to play. Growing up in Cincinnati, his demeanor matches his childhood hero Pete Rose and another Reds player who succeeded with the Yankees in Paul O’Neill.

The money certainly is fine with this being just a one-year deal, and the story lines practically write themselves when Youkilis returns to Fenway in the road gray of the hated Yankees.

But what the Yankees get here is a guy who will run through a brick wall if he has too and put a fire under anyone else who seems to be dogging it.

If he is healthy, he will play an invaluable role as the Yankees try and retain their top place in the American League East. 

*Statistics via Baseball Reference.

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After shedding millions of dollars in bad contracts last season, the Boston Red Sox Tuesday surprised a lot of people by signing Shane Victorino to a three-year contract for a reported total of $38 million (via Boston.com). 

The 31-year-old outfielder is expected to be the Opening Day right fielder for the Red Sox and could spell center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury when needed.

Grabbing someone with the ability to steal over 30 bases a year and has Gold Glove defensive ability really is not the worst thing the Sox could have done, but signing someone who cannot consistently hit left-handed pitching and teaching him to play right field for three years is another matter.

In essence, they gave Torii Hunter money for a player that is a bit faster, but has less power.

For all the talk of fiscal prudence, Victorino becomes the second player in as many days to get around $13 million per year.

While that seems to be the going rate for mid-level players this offseason, it does make you wonder why the Red Sox would spend that much money to fill that hole in right field when they have prospects in their farm system. Maybe the speculation of trading Ellsbury is true and Shane was actually brought into play center field, his natural position.

Like Mike Napoli, the other big contract signed so far during the Winter Meetings, Victorino did not have a great season during the last year of his contract.

Stealing a career high 39 bases between time with the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers, Victorino actually had a career low batting average of .255 and an OPS+ of 91. An average MLB hitter should have an OPS+ of 100.

Victorino also struck out a career high 80 times.

When he plays well, he can hit for his speed. Twice, he led the National League in triples and has hit more than 10 three times in his career. If he can find the gap in Fenway’s spacious right center and that 420-foot triangle in dead center, he could get back into double-digits in triples again.

As with some of the other signings so far this offseason, the big question is the length of the deal. Boston basically had a “get out of jail free” card after dumping salary onto the Dodgers.

In an upcoming season that really doesn’t look like they’re going to be in the playoff hunt, was this the right player to spend money on?

*Statistics via Baseball Reference.

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It is very rare in baseball to see two game-changing players debut in the same year like we did in 2012 with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper; the last occurrence being in 2001 with Albert Pujols and Ichiro.

Both players were the undisputed best rookies in their respective league and have created a buzz about themselves that could easily create a fast track to Cooperstown. The question now is whether they can progress in 2013 or will one—or both—of them succumb to the dreaded sophomore slump?

It may seem cruel to openly wonder if a kid will fall flat on his face, but it is not unusual for players to get figured out by pitchers and fielders and not produce at the levels that produced all the hype to begin with.

For every Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays, we have Joe Charbonneau and Kevin Maas.

That is not to suggest that either of these great players are going to fall off the face of the earth, but one great rookie season does not guarantee getting featured on SportsCenter the rest of their career.

For the Washington Nationals, Harper has a much easier road in duplicating his 2012 output.

At just 19, Harper hit .270, with 22 home runs and 59 runs batted in. He had 144 base hits, stole 18 bases and struck out 120 times.

With the Nationals’ lineup and their pitching staff, not only should Harper have plenty of opportunities to build on his rookie year, he should not be under tremendous individual pressure to do so. Most of the focus going into 2013 will be on Stephen Strasburg’s first full season in the Majors (hopefully).

While Harper will receive plenty of attention, there will be equal spotlight not only Strasburg, but retiring manager Davey Johnson getting one last World Series shot before calling it quits.

Frankly, this is the best chance Johnson has had to get to the World Series since the 1988 New York Mets, who fell short in the NLCS.

Sure, there will be pressure on Harper, but no more than on the entire team to match their division-winning effort from last season.

Trout, on the other hand, will be under a huge scope following his implausible rookie campaign.

In falling short of becoming the third player in baseball history to win the Rookie of the Year and the Most Valuable Player award, Trout has captured the adoration of Southern California and sabermetric gurus alike.

Trout’s credentials were legitimate. He led the American League in runs scored and stolen bases and hit 30 homers and batted .326 as well. And if he had played a full 162-game season, he certainly would have had 200 hits.

Therein lies the problem. His first full season went so well, it is hard to imagine him getting much better.

Unlike Harper, any slump by Trout will be featured on ESPN and dissected by their never-ending parade of talking heads. He has played himself into the fishbowl—which I am sure is still an enviable position from his peers.

Unlike the Nationals, the Angels are not the best team in their league or division.

Trout does have the benefit of playing for one of the better managers in the game in Mike Scioscia and has arguably the game’s best lineup protector in Albert Pujols.

If Pujols is his usual self and if the Angels get hot early, the pressure will be off of Trout and the kid will just play ball.

Some have compared the entry of Harper and Trout in MLB to the emergence of Larry Bird and Magic Johnson to the NBA a generation ago.

It would be extraordinary to see these two stars turn into legends. But to expect that to happen without any hitches is simply not realistic.

How they adapt to the new pressure will be key for each going forward. For our sake, another summer like 2012 would be just fine.

*Statistics via Baseball-Reference

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Now that we have reached the winter meetings part of the offseason Major League Baseball calendar, it is time to break out the crystal ball and try and gaze ahead to next March and the start of the 2013 season.

After blowing some dust off, let’s see what is says.

“Why the San Francisco Giants should be very afraid of the Detroit Tigers.”

Oh, dear. I’m afraid that the ball is still a bit cracked from last year.

In any event, here are a few things that could happen between now and the first pitch of 2013.

Like the headline suggests, some things will be good, others bad and one or two are just bound to be ugly.

More importantly, maybe one or two could be right.

Begin Slideshow

The news of Melky Cabrera signing a two-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays Friday—broken by ESPN Deportes’ Enrique Rojas—for $16 million should be seen as a relief for Cabrera and his fans.

Coming off last season’s 50-game suspension for PED use, Cabrera was left off the World Series champions San Francisco Giants’ playoff roster after his suspension finished.

At only 28, Cabrera should be coming into the prime of his career. A below-average hitter who could hit for doubles during his tenure with the New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves, Cabrera started to pick up some offensive steam two years ago with the Kansas City Royals hitting .305 and collecting 201 hits before last season’s big asterisk by the bay.

The question for Cabrera in Toronto will be just how much of that was PED-induced and how much of that was turning raw talent into mature product.

Coming to a team that has just made the big splash as Toronto did in acquiring the nuts and bolts of the Miami Marlins’ lineup actually work in Cabrera’s favor.

While the folks that do the drug testing will be watching him carefully to see if he stays clean, he will blend in with the rest of the Blue Jays lineup and the pressure from fans and press will be focused elsewhere.

At $8 million per season, this contract is not quite in a flier category, but it is close.

He shows good speed and decent stealing ability and, along with Jose Reyes, should turn the long power alleys at Rogers Center into his own personal running track.

Cabrera can bunt and can draw a walk when needed as well.

It may not be clear what the Blue Jays’ scouts might have seen to justify giving Cabrera a $2 million raise after his failed test ended his 2012 season, and certainly that failed test cost him some big money in the short term, but they have given Melky a chance to show everyone that he really had picked up his game the last two seasons with the Royals and the Giants.

Considered to be a favorite now for at least a wild card spot, Cabrera qualifies as perhaps that last missing puzzle piece that all teams need to get to that next level.

The Blue Jays probably do not consider him a blue-chip free agent, but his knowledge of playing in the now ultra-competitive AL East certainly plays in his hands. If that gets Toronto an extra win or two, then that salary will be forgotten by the critics.

The Jays are gambling that their time is right now and Cabrera can re-establish himself on what Toronto hopes is their first playoff team in 20 years.

For the Jays, they understand those important puzzle pieces cost money. Obviously they are willing to spend money to build a winner and Cabrera’s past performances show he can do that.

More importantly for Cabrera, he now has two years to transform himself into the player he wants to be. He will not be the biggest name on the team when spring training rolls around and, if all goes well, he can turn a successful two years in Canada into a much bigger payday at 30 and show everyone that his talents were not fake after all.

*Statistics via Baseball Reference

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The Detroit Tigers hope to make the World Series an actual series tonight when they play the San Francisco Giants at Comerica Park.

Anibal Sanchez hopes to keep the Tigers afloat while San Francisco counters with arguably their best postseason pitcher in Ryan Vogelsong.

With the Giants leading 2-0 in this best-of-seven, the first pitch is shortly after 8:00 p.m. ET/5:00 p.m. PT.

SCORE UPDATE:

FINAL: Tigers 0 – 2 Giants

W: Vogelsong

L: Sanchez

S: Romo

Giants lead 3-0

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This was not a good night for the slugging New York Yankees‘ third baseman Alex Rodriguez.

His team dropped a close 2-1 game to the Detroit Tigers in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series to fall into a 3-0 hole.

Two of New York’s tabloids have reported that he was flirting with female fans after being subbed for Saturday and—despite hitting two home runs off of Justin Verlander in his career—was benched Tuesday night like he was for last Friday’s deciding ALDS game against Baltimore.

While Rodriguez smiled broadly at times in the dugout during Game 3, there now is a pretty substantial rift between the prized slugger and the Yankees’ brain trust of manager Joe Girardi and General Manager Brian Cashman.

The public words for the benching were said to be for performance as the Yankees tried to put a lineup for Game 3 that featured speed and small ball.

The simple “no comment” that were making the rounds through the press, however, might have told a tea leaf reader a different story.

It will be very hard whenever the Yankees’ 2012 season ends for Rodriguez and Girardi to get back on the same page.

The first benching was clearly designed to spark a fire with his high-dollar superstar, but the lack of production that haunted Rodriguez through the Baltimore series followed him for the first two games at home against the Tigers.

He was pinch-hit for in Game 1 before the Yankees fought back to force extra innings.

On Tuesday, he never even had a bat in his hand as the Yankees finally chased Verlander in the ninth for a run and had the go-ahead run on first base.

Girardi‘s pinch-hitter to face Phil Coke? Nick Swisher.

In five days, we have gone from kick in the pants to outright mistrust.

The problem going forward for the Yankees and Rodriguez is that as much as they do not want to be together anymore, his $29 million in salary will be nearly impossible to move unless New York is prepared to eat a substantial portion of it. His deal still has four years to run.

It does not seem likely that either Girardi or Cashman will be going anywhere for 2013 as the Yankees have battled the Tigers very hard for a team staring down a 3-0 deficit.

If the Yankees will not trust him to play in the biggest games of the year and he has been benched for their last two—then what reassurances will he get that it will not happen again.

Rodriguez was so unhappy with Joe Torre that he opted out of his contract for free agency the night the Boston Red Sox swept the 2007 World Series against the Colorado Rockies.

As Rodriguez tries to figure out what his best for his future, it is hard to see him really caring much either way at this point about the Yankees.

Never considered a beloved player in New York, this signifies the beginning of the end in pinstripes for Rodriguez.

Unless there is a front office house cleaning this off-season, this relationship will continue to strain and eventually will break, if it has not already.

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