Kuzul

Cincinnati Reds fans are reacting differently to Johnny Cueto‘s injury.  His absence makes most fans anxious, as they should be, while others are excited at the prospect of another starter getting a chance.  

Cueto, the club’s ace, is expected to miss between two to four starts (Hamilton JournalNews).  For me, the biggest concern isn’t his absence, but what the injury means.  The Dominican starter has seemed injury-prone over the years, the pinnacle being his injury in the first game of the playoffs against the San Francisco Giants.  Is it possible that the story of this injury will resemble Nick Masset’s, which—originally diagnosed as shoulder soreness—evolved into season-ending surgery from which we have yet to see him return?  But I digress.

The story tantalizing fans is that of Tony Cingrani, a third-round pick out of Rice.  Converted from closer to starter, Cingrani has been nothing short of brilliant in his performances in the minor leagues.  Last season, the southpaw posted a 1.73 ERA in Double-A Pensacola with over 10 SO/9.  This season in Triple-A Louisville, he’s picked up right where he left off with a 1.80 ERA and over 16 SO/9 in his three starts.  He’s dominating the minor league batters who are hitting a paltry .067 against him. 

Based on those numbers, Cingrani looks a lot like Aroldis Chapman—a high-strikeouts, hard-to-hit lefty.  The comparisons don’t stop there though.  Just like the Cuban Missile, Cingrani‘s best pitch is his fastball, which averages around 92 mph.  Cingrani, based solely on his minors numbers, looks entirely ready to step up and start—whether it be as a stand-in for Johnny Cueto or as a replacement for the lackluster Mike Leake.

But wait, there is in fact more.  For those clambering for Cingrani to eventually replace Mike Leake, one detail is always forgotten: the reason Cingrani is still in the minors.  You see, despite his impressive numbers, the closer-turned-starter—much like Aroldis Chapman—is highly limited by his lack of pitches.  He throws his fastball and an average changeup along with a below-average slider and a new 11-5 curveball.  He lacks a second pitch, and it shows in the metrics.  Last season, over 85 percent of the lefty’s pitches were fastballs, and this season, that number is over 90 percent.  His 85 percent statistic is higher than any pitcher in the majors—the leaders threw their fastballs 80 percent of the time.  

And the rest of the league?  Fangraphs reports that only 15 starters threw fastballs over 65 percent of the time.  The Reds camp has repeatedly said that Cingrani is to remain in Louisville until he can effectively throw another pitch.  That hasn’t happened yet.

Throwing that many fastballs is just asking to be lit up in the major leagues, which is definitely not the place to develop a breaking ball.  The reality is that, despite his truly awe-inspiring numbers, this kid is just not ready to pitch in a starting rotation.  Might he get called up to replace Cueto?  I would be stunned if he wasn’t with all the hype surrounding him.  Should he stay up after Cueto‘s return?  That will largely depend on his numbers, but if the organization is really intent on him finding a third pitch, they’ll make the smart move and send him down, or make the even smarter move of letting Sam LeCure replace Cueto for a few starts. 

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The Cincinnati Reds were one of the best teams in baseball last season, which isn’t half bad considering they’re such a small market team.  This 2013 season will see the Reds looking to grab their third NL Central title in four years.  The talent is there.  The pieces are in place.

As good as they are, and as good as they should be, one can’t help but look at the team and see a handful of weaknesses that might just keep them from being repeat NL Central victors.  

The strengths of the team are obvious, but will the be enough to help the team overcome these five weaknesses?

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Cincinnati Reds fans are witnessing the greatness of Johnny Cueto for a second consecutive year.  The Dominican starter has firmly entrenched himself as the Reds’ No. 1 starter, their true ace.  Cueto‘s numbers have been dazzling, and this season he’s getting what he desperately needs for the Cy Young race: wins.

With a 14-5 record, Cueto shares the title of MLB‘s most wins along with highly praised names like David Price, Jered Weaver and R.A. Dickey.  Fourteen wins marks a career best for the Cincinnati ace, and given the hot streak from the Reds’ batters, that number should only climb.

Last season, Johnny Cueto was just as impressive as he is this year.  He had a WHIP of 1.09.  He held batters to .214 hitting.  He made over half of the balls hit against him grounders, crucial in Great American Ballpark where the home run rate is 1.644/game, the second highest in the major leagues.  All these numbers, even his 2011 2.31 ERA, were better than his current numbers.  His problem last year, though, was one of innings pitched, missing qualification for the ERA title by just six innings, and garnering little attention with his nine wins.

This year’s the new story, the story of a healthier Johnny Cueto.  Although not quite as good as last year, his 1.21 WHIP is up there with well-established names like C.J. Wilson and CC Sabathia.  Although batters hit .254 against him, he strands over 80 percent of those on base, rated seventh best in the majors.  Pitching in Cincinnati, he’s given up just seven home runs, fourth best in the majors with the second-lowest HR/nine.

Why is there no buzz about this guy?

The answer is depressingly obvious.  Cueto doesn’t fit the mold of a modern ace.  Unlike his peers, his strikeout rate is pretty plain at 7.06 K/nine.  Unlike his peers, he doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, his fastball averages around 92 mph.  He’s not the anomaly of a pitcher that R.A. Dickey is.  His name isn’t on the trade block like Zack Greinke.  He’s not getting All-Star appearances, he’s playing for a small-market team, and he’s a relatively fresh face.

If the season ended right now and Johnny Cueto didn’t win the NL Cy Young Award, MLB would have to answer some tough questions.  Cueto holds baseball’s ninth-best WAR and sits behind only the reigning AL MVP Justin Verlander when you shorten the list to just pitchers.  He’s the clear ace of baseball’s best and hottest team.  He’s tied for fifth in number of quality starts, ahead of such NL fan favorites as Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw.  He has the fourth-best ERA in the NL.

Three of his five losses are tough losses.  None of his wins were cheap wins.

I can throw incredible stats about the guy at you all day.  With him on the mound, 89 percent of baserunners are caught stealing.  He hasn’t thrown a wild pitch this year.  Only three qualified pitchers have fewer earned runs than him.

Where is the talk about a pitcher finding himself among the league’s best in almost every category?

If Cueto continues his dominance—and there’s no reason he shouldn’t; his ERA going back to the start of 2011 is second only to Jered Weaver’s—and tops 20 wins this season, don’t just pray that he wins the Cy Young Award, expect it.  

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The Cincinnati Reds played well Saturday in narrow victory at Yankee Stadium.  Homer Bailey is showing signs of being the starter that, for years, fans were told he was.  The bats were alive, and the Reds made the most of their opportunities.  

Joey Votto is looking hot, Heisey and Phillips are heating up and talents like Costanzo are revealing their worth.  But that’s not all the 6-5 win over New York revealed.

The ninth inning came calling again for Sean Marshall.

With the score at 6-3, he had a comfortable lead to work with.  Was there pressure?  Sure, but nowhere near the kind closers have to deal with on a regular basis.  

Taking the mound for the 10th time this year, Marshall gave up four hits and two runs, while only recording a single out.  He was relieved by Jose Arredondo who was credited with the save.

Marshall has seven saves on the year and only one blown save.  At first glance, his stats might suggest he’s playing pretty well.  But then you have to ask yourself about his two holds.  

Sean Marshall has failed to perform on the mound as a closer, and he’s failed twice in the last few appearances to get out of the ninth inning.  He’s starting to draw the ire of fans and the management as well.

Marshall wasn’t brought into the organization to be a closer, but with Ryan Madson’s injury, it became apparent that he would be dubbed the new Reds’ closer.  He looked great in his first appearances, but has only crumbled since.

 With an ERA at 5.02 and a WHIP 1.74, he’s certainly no longer impressive.  Batters are hitting over .300 against the pitcher.  Reds’ fans and staff are losing trust in Marshall quickly, and his confidence is clearly dwindling.

You might ask, ‘what’s the answer?’ 

But that’s the problem.  

The Reds don’t have another pitcher who is really suited to play as a closer.  Many have and will continue to call for Aroldis Chapman to take the job, but that’s totally unrealistic.

Chapman is a born starter and will have a substantially bigger impact in the rotation once he’s out of the bullpen.  Asking him to take the mound to close in consecutive days is a death wish with the young southpaw throwing so hard.  Injury would be inevitable.

Who’s next?  Today’s closer, Arrendondo?  He’s pitched well this year, but his career is riddled with inconsistency, which is evident from his walk rate of 4.3 per nine innings pitched.  

What about Logan Ondrusek?  He lacks experience in closing situations and, although he’s been lights out this year, he has a consistency problem that could be worse than Marshall’s.

Beyond that, Nick Masset and Bill Bray are injured.  Sam LeCure doesn’t have the stuff that the closing role calls for.  JJ Hoover has very little major league experience.  So who does that leave?

The problem the Reds are facing now is Sean Marshall is struggling as a closer, and there’s also a lack of pitchers who could replace him.  

With a role as important as the closer, waiting for form to return could be a huge mistake.  That said, I fully expect Dusty Baker to ride the Marshall train until his confidence returns.  Hopefully that’s sooner rather than later.

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