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There are a number of dark-horse prospects who could make the New York Mets’ roster on Opening Day, and with pitchers and catchers arriving to Port St. Lucie, Fla., in the next few weeks, it’s easy to get excited about them already.

While many fans want to see star prospects, such as Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero, make the Opening Day roster, they are less likely candidates and will probably begin the season in Double-A. This list lacks potentially elite prospects such as Syndergaard, but fans should care about these players, as they will be making an impact on the major league roster sooner rather than later.

Because of the bullpen competition that will occur during spring training, most of these prospects are pitchers who are either already relievers or starters who could end up in the bullpen eventually. I have only included prospects who have yet to make their major league debut, so prospects such as Wilmer Flores, Jeurys Familia and Wilfredo Tovar are not present.

Here are five dark-horse prospects who could make the Mets’ roster out of spring training.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference.

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While the 2014 season will not make or break Gavin Cecchini’s career, the young shortstop is one of the most important players in the New York Mets‘ farm system. It may take time for Cecchini to reach his potential, but if he can make strides at the plate this season both he and the Mets will be in a better position moving forward.

Cecchini has the potential to be a very valuable asset to the Mets because of his ability to play shortstop, but until he starts to make strides with his bat, his progress will be limited and his value diminished.

The Mets drafted Cecchini with the 12^th overall selection in the 2012 MLB Draft, which was an interesting decision at the time. Cecchini’s biggest appeal as a prospect coming into the draft was not his potential tools or high ceiling but instead his baseball instincts and projected ability to stay at shortstop—a valuable trait considering the dearth of quality shortstops around the majors.

On the surface, it appeared as though the Mets were overcompensating for their first round selection in 2011 of Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo was a projectable athlete with a smooth swing and raw instincts while Cecchini lacked the ideal projection of a first-round pick, but excelled when it came to his baseball instincts. Former Baseball Prospectus writer Kevin Goldstein wrote (subscription required) following the draft that many teams liked Cecchini and were impressed by his baseball acumen, but felt that he “had a price tag that was seen as a bit ahead of his talent.” 

Since Cecchini entered the Mets’ farm system in 2012, he has failed to look like a first-round pick on the field other than the fact he is still playing shortstop. In 2012, he hit a meager .246 with an unimpressive .641 OPS in the Appalachian League. Injuries slowed down his 2013 campaign with the Brooklyn Cyclones where he improved slightly at the plate with a .273 batting average, but showed even less impact potential, slugging just .314.  

As of right now, it is hard for fans to be excited about Cecchini. He doesn’t have massive power, he doesn’t make supremely athletic plays at shortstop and has made little improvement at the plate in his two years playing professionally. His lack of tools will never allow him to become an elite prospect for the Mets, something fans could hold against him because he was a first-round pick. Also, many fans are upset because the team passed on right-hander Michael Wacha in the 2012 draft, evidenced in the tweet below.

Wacha dazzled the baseball world while pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals at the end of the season and in the playoffs, while Cecchini disappointed fans with his uninspired play in the New York-Penn League. Fans should not hold this against Cecchini or the Mets, however, as the MLB Draft is one of the hardest to evaluate players correctly among all sporting leagues.

Despite all this, he has the potential to be a key part of the Mets’ future. While 2014 isn’t a make or break season for him, the strides he makes this year could accelerate his ascension to the major leagues.

The key for Cecchini to maximize his potential lies in his bat.

Even as a first-round pick, scouts didn’t project him to hit for significant power. Prior to being drafted, Kevin Goldstein ranked him as the 17^th best prospect and saw almost no projection for power, but believed he had “a smooth line drive stroke,” which could make him an asset in a batting order if combined with a solid approach at the plate.

Mets Vice President of Player Development and Scouting Paul DePodesta told Toby Hyde of Metsminorleagueblog.com the organization’s view of Cecchini’s offensive potential heading into the 2013 season:

“Offensively, we think he’s a guy who is going to hit first or second in a lineup and be a very tough out, hit for average, get on base, hit for a little power. We’re not expecting him to go and hit 30 homers, but he’s not going to hit three either. There’s some strength in there, and there are going to be some doubles. He does everything well.”

The organization is obviously going to present their prospect in a positive fashion, but DePodesta does a good job of explaining the best-case scenario for their young shortstop.

Mets fans should remain patient and optimistic with Cecchini, as John Bernhardt of Metzmerizedonline.com pointed out today that even future Hall of Famer Derek Jeter struggled in his first two years in the professional ranks.

Also, by many accounts and evidenced by the comments from his coaches in the above video, Cecchini is a very hard worker. This is an attribute that cannot be overlooked when evaluating baseball prospects, as almost nobody enters the minor leagues good enough to play in the majors; it is up to the prospects to work and capitalize on their talents.

If Cecchini can improve his offense significantly in the 2014 season through hard work and staying healthy, he could be an option for the Mets at shortstop sooner rather than later.

Because of his early struggles and lack of improvement in his career thus far, scouting websites this offseason believe that he is far from the big leagues. Fangraphs’ Marc wrote that he thinks Cecchini could make his debut in late 2016 but more likely in 2017, while Baseball America thinks (subscription required) “he’s likely four full years away.”

I would agree with these scouting assessments, but Cecchini has the ability to change these beliefs in 2014. He already has the solid defense most still believe will allow him to play shortstop, and if his bat shows a marked improvement as well, he could be the type of prospect to accelerate his own advancement to the majors.

Teams tend to be more cautious with promoting high-ceiling prospects with raw tools (a la Brandon Nimmo) because they usually need to refine their raw abilities before getting exposed at higher levels, which could set them back. If Cecchini figures out how to approach professional pitching, he could reach his ceiling faster than other prospects and fill a gaping hole on the Mets’ big league roster as soon as late 2015 (although 2017 is still a more realistic target).

Cecchini will likely never play on an All Star team or marvel fans with his physical gifts, and right now his bat is holding him back from moving up the ladder in the Mets’ farm system. Despite this, fans should pay close attention to him in 2014, because if his hard work and baseball instincts translate into success, he could be an important part of the Mets’ future.

Shortstops are hard to come by in the big leagues. Cecchini’s success in 2014 will help indicate to fans whether he can be a key cog in the Mets organization at some point down the road.  

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

You can follow Sean on twitter at @S_CunninghamBR.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Major League Baseball hot stove was sizzling in December but has since cooled off, leaving New York Mets fans stuck with the same rumors every day that may or may not pan out.

This is not necessarily a bad thing, as the Mets were able to make big deals earlier this offseason by locking down players such as Curtis Granderson and Bartolo Colon. However, there are still rumors about what the Mets will do next. While the Mets have improved, they still need to make additional moves this offseason.

The rumors that have persisted through mid-January surround Stephen Drew and Ike Davis, as the team still needs to add a shortstop and fix their glut at first base.

Rumors always need to be taken with a grain of salt as they are often leaked by teams for negotiating purposes, and often deals come out of nowhere and take fans by surprise. Presented below is my take on the latest rumors surrounding Ike Davis and Stephen Drew as I try to see between the lines of the Mets’ negotiating strategy and make my predictions as to what will occur in both situations.

Stephen Drew Rumors

There have been plenty of rumors surrounding Stephen Drew this offseason, many of which have linked the shortstop to the Mets. I am selling the validity of most of these rumors and believe that Drew will return to the Boston Red Sox on a one- or two-year deal.

A number of Drew rumors have developed following the New Year, each one contradicting the previous one in some way. Peter Gammons noted following the New Year that a rival general manager of the Mets believes that New York is interested in Drew’s services. Also, Kevin Kernan of the New York Post stated that the Mets are interested in the shortstop but are unwilling to go beyond a two-year deal.

In Kernan’s article he states that he believed both New York teams were potential destinations for Drew, but Yankees general manager Brian Cashman debunked those rumors, as evidenced in the below tweet by Peter Gammons.

With the Yankees out of the picture, it seems that the two most serious teams on Drew are the Mets and the Red Sox. Ken Rosenthal reported last week that neither club was willing to offer more than a one-year deal, but he felt that New York was the best fit.

To further complicate things, Scott Boras claimed, via Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, he has had active talks with five or six teams regarding Drew, a market that is hard to imagine for the shortstop. Of all the new Drew rumors that have come about this offseason, I am selling this one the most as it is a clear ploy to get the Mets or Red Sox in a bidding war against imaginary teams and offer more years. It is a significant rumor, however, as it indicates the importance Boras and Drew are placing on getting a long-term contract.

Drew is an imperfect player but would be a drastic improvement for the Mets over current shortstop Ruben Tejada. Since his contract demands have slipped since the offseason began, the Mets have been further tied to the shortstop, but unless they are willing to go to three years (something I doubt the team would consider) I believe he will not be a Met, as I wrote earlier this month.

Despite the fact that the Red Sox currently have a top prospect who plays shortstop in Xander Bogaerts, Boston would love to bring Drew back.

Bogaerts is capable of playing shortstop, but the Red Sox cannot rely on their young third baseman Will Middlebrooks. He has impressive power, but as a 24-year-old in 2013 hit just .227 and reached base at a .271 clip.

Boston manager John Farrell indicated the team’s stance on their infield situation earlier in the offseason, stating, via NESN,  “I’m hopeful [Drew] is back. It buys us some time, whether [Bogaerts] is the guy going forward next year at shortstop or if he’s at third base.”

Even if the Mets may be a better fit for Drew and end up offering a two-year deal to Boston’s one-year contract, Drew would most likely prefer to return to the defending World Series champions and try and test the free agent market next season and look for a longer offer rather than go to New York, a team that has been in flux over the past couple seasons.  

A two-year deal may be even more unappealing to Drew than a one-year deal, as he clearly wants a long-term contract and adding an extra year just makes him a year older and less valuable on the free-agent market.

Many Mets fans may see Drew as an inevitable member of the 2014 squad, but if general manager Sandy Alderson sticks to his patient negotiating tactics and refuses to compromise on the length of a contract, a return to Boston is much more likely in my opinion.

While a trade for someone such as Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Chris Owings is unlikely as it would cost the team pitching assets (a topic I discussed in December), I believe that it would be a preferable option for the Mets.

Unfortunately for the Mets and their fans, despite the fact that I don’t buy the notion that the Mets are happy with Ruben Tejada as their starting shortstop, he will likely be the team’s Opening Day shortstop if they don’t offer Drew a three-year deal.

Ike Davis Rumors

Unlike the Stephen Drew rumors, which have been all over the place this offseason, it has been clear since early December that the Mets want to trade Lucas Duda or Ike Davis, with Andy Martino of the Daily News reporting that the team would prefer to deal Davis.

While fans have their preferences as to which of the first basemen they would like to keep, the Mets would be wise to trade one of the two and get some value in return. Having two first basemen unable to play any other position in the National League is pointless.

It is for this reason I am selling the rumors of the past week, that the team is no longer planning on dealing a first baseman.

This rumor was first reported by ESPN’s Adam Rubin, who wrote that the Mets expect Davis to be with the team in spring training.

One of the teams that the Mets have reportedly had discussions about Davis with is the Milwaukee Brewers. As recently as last week Milwaukee general manager Doug Melvin said the two teams were still in discussions about Davis but had yet to reach common ground, via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Just two days later, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com Sandy Alderson said the team is no longer actively involved in trade discussions surrounding Davis.

While it is a possibility that both Ike Davis and Lucas Duda will be with the Mets in spring training, it will only be because Alderson was unable to find a worthy offer this offseason. He has reportedly been demanding solid pitching prospects while in negotiations with the Baltimore Orioles, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Brewers, as evidenced in the tweets below.

Nick Kingham, Eduardo Rodriguez and Tyler Thornburg would all be solid returns for Ike Davis, but as of now teams have been unwilling to part with players of this caliber because of Davis’ poor 2013 performance.

I am selling the fact that the team would like to have Davis back in camp, as these latest statements by Alderson are clearly negotiating tactics as he attempts to net a solid return for the left-handed slugger. All the teams he is negotiating with are in need of a first baseman, and Sandy believes if he is patient that another team will jump on Davis’ power potential.

In the end, I believe a trade involving Davis will occur prior to or during the early days of spring training, likely with the Brewers. Davis is a perfect fit in Milwaukee so I believe they are the likeliest to relinquish a pitching prospect in the deal—potentially Tyler Thornburg.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

You can follow Sean on Twitter at @S_CunninghamBR.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The New York Mets currently have a number of prospects on the cusp of making the major leagues, creating the question as to who will ascend in Mets system and become the next exciting young star.

The Mets have a number of prospects in the lower minors who have the tools to rise and become star talents but who have yet to harness their physical gifts and produce in the minors.

The prospects listed in this column are worth keeping an eye on during the 2014 season to see if they can turn their tools into production on the field.

These prospects are currently considered outside of the team’s top 10 prospects because they have failed to produce on the field yet, so statistics will hardly be used. They are not exciting because of their minor league production yet but because they have the physical tools to become stars.

This list also excludes prospects such as Dominic Smith, Brandon Nimmo and Gavin Cecchini because they are already considered high-end prospects within the system.

As most prospects fail to reach their ceilings, the Mets would be lucky if just one of these prospects becomes a top prospect. However, that is part of what makes prospects so much fun as it is impossible to know for certain what to expect.

Here are prospects in the Mets system who could be among the best in the system by the season’s end.

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The New York Mets currently have a number of their top prospects on the verge of making the major leagues. Whether they make the team’s Opening Day roster or are called up later in the season is another question.

For prospects who haven’t made their major league debut yet, their chances of making the Opening Day roster are diminished. With the Super Two rule that allows teams another year of service time if they wait to call players up, clubs have little incentive to call up their star prospects for financial reasons.

The team has a stable of relief prospects who should compete for opening day roster spots (like Cory Mazzoni, Jeff Walters and Jack Leathersich) but have been left off of this list because they aren’t considered among the team’s top 10 prospects.

The Mets also have a number of highly-regarded prospects in their system who are further away from the major leagues (Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith, etc.) who have also been left off of this list as they have no chance of making the club.

With spring training just around the corner, it’s time to get excited about baseball again and whether the top Mets prospects will make the team out of camp. Here are the odds of the team’s top prospects making the club out of spring training.

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The 2014 season will be better than 2013’s version for New York Mets fans because the team will be showcasing its young, promising talent while taking one step closer to completing its plan of becoming a championship contender once again.

2013 was not without its high points for Mets fans, however. New Yorkers reveled in the greatness that was Matt Harvey, as he asserted himself as one of baseball’s most dominant forces (and Jon Rauch’s worst nightmare). A late-season UCL tear has stripped fans of Harvey for the 2014 season, making the prospect of an improved 2014 a tall task.

But the Mets have hope on the horizon beyond Matt Harvey, with young players ready to blossom or make their major league debut in 2014.

The chance to watch the Mets’ young pitchers blossom along with their improved chances of making the playoffs will help fans get over the loss of Harvey and enjoy 2014 even more.

Watching the Growth of Young Players

2013’s high points occurred every fifth day when Harvey took the mound. Because of the Mets’ talented young pitchers that should blossom this season, fans will have reason to get excited more than just one day out of every five.

Last season fans caught a glimpse of Zack Wheeler’s potential, but he still has plenty to prove in 2014. In 100 innings at the major league level, Wheeler struck out 84 batters but walked 46. He averaged 4.14 walks per nine innings, a figure he will need to decrease significantly if he wants to become a major league stud.

Despite Wheeler’s high walk rate and command trouble, he displayed great promise as well. He pitched to an impressive 3.42 ERA and showed off his electric fastball, which made him such a highly touted prospect. His incredible promise is evident in the video below, where he dominated Miami hitters while controlling all of his offerings.

Wheeler’s secondary pitches and command need work, but watching him grow into his potential will be an exciting storyline for fans in the 2014 season.

Beyond Wheeler, the Mets have a number of other young guns that should make 2014 an exciting year for fans. Pitchers like Rafael Montero and Jacob deGrom should make themselves important at the major league level early on, whether as replacement starters or impact relievers.

Noah Syndergaard, the righty prospect acquired in the R.A. Dickey trade, could be even more exciting (and potentially better) than Wheeler by the end of the 2014 season. The burly Texan powers a mid- to high-90s fastball and a much-improved breaking ball, having made big strides with the secondary pitch in 2013.

Last season pitching at both High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton, Syndergaard pitched 117.2 innings and struck out 133. There are also little concerns about his command (like there are with Wheeler), as he walked just 28 batters in 2013.

Syndergaard should begin his season in Triple-A Las Vegas, and if he progresses as expected, he should come up to the majors in either June or July. When Syndergaard is called up he will be Mets fans’ shiny new toy, as the combination of his overpowering fastball and great control should make him successful in the short term while giving fans hopes of long-term success.

Mets fans also got a taste of the other major piece of the R.A. Dickey trade at the end of 2013 with Travis d’Arnaud. The young catcher struggled in his debut; he hit just .202 with one home run in 99 at-bats. Despite the underwhelming start, d’Arnaud has All-Star potential.

I wrote extensively here earlier this offseason on why d’Arnaud’s improvement in 2014 is key to the Mets’ playoff chances. If d’Arnaud reaches his ceiling as a prospect and becomes a force behind the plate, the 2014 Mets will be much more exciting than the 2013 squad.

New Organizational Approach

2014 will also be better for Mets fans because of the shifting approach of the organization onto winning now versus building for the future.

The Mets have been rebuilding since Sandy Alderson took over as general manager, which is why the team has so many of the young players that will help make 2014 exciting. However, this offseason, after it signed veterans like Curtis Granderson, Chris Young and Bartolo Colon, fans can no longer complain about the team only being concerned with the future.

Signing Granderson and Young gives the Mets an established outfield that the team lacked in 2013. Both players are flawed but have impact potential. Adding these two players with Juan Lagares in center field should give the Mets impressive outfield defense in 2014, which beyond being fun to watch should also help the entire pitching staff.

Colon will not be able to replicate Matt Harvey’s tremendous 2013, but he should help fill some of the void caused by his absence.

Despite the fact it is unlikely Colon will repeat his amazing 2013 statistics (2.65 ERA, just 29 walks in 190.1 innings), his impeccable fastball command (as seen in the below video) should make him effective in 2014.

Also, even if Colon doesn’t come close to his 2013 numbers, getting to watch a pitcher so awkwardly athletic and rotund should be fun for Mets fans.

The Mets’ signings so far this offseason do not make them a legitimate championship contender yet, but it puts them in the playoff conversation. They also show Mets fans that the team is willing to spend money and is trying to win now, something that should give fans hope for contention in the near future (even if it doesn’t occur in 2014).

2013 was far from perfect for Mets fans as the team failed to compete for a playoff spot, but Harvey’s amazing season made it worth watching.

The Mets’ young talent that will be showcased in 2014 along with the organization’s new approach to winning now will make 2014 better than 2013 for Mets fans.

Contending for a championship is the final goal, but the process of reaching contention is fun in itself. 2014 will not be perfect, but it will be a step in the right direction for the Mets—something fans should enjoy.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference.

You can follow me on Twitter at @S_CunninghamBR.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The New York Mets still need improve this offseason if they want to compete for a playoff spot in 2014, and they can do so by trading for a shortstop.

Stephen Drew is the only legitimate option who is a free agent. Considering the Mets are only willing to sign him to a one- or two-year deal, Drew returning to Boston is more likely. Outside of Drew, the best options are on the trade market.

While every team in the league would love to have a shortstop to build around, the Arizona Diamondbacks have an excess of major league-ready shortstops who should be impact big leaguers for a long time. After acquiring Didi Gregorius for Trevor Bauer in a three-team trade last winter and drafting Chris Owings in the supplemental first round in 2009 out of high school, the Diamondbacks have the happy problem of having too many young shortstops.

Arizona also has been in search of established starting pitching all offseason, as Buster Olney tweeted earlier this offseason.

With the Diamondbacks’ trade for Mark Trumbo it is clear they want to win now. Both Gregorius and Owings can’t play shortstop simultaneously, so it would be wise for the Diamondbacks to trade one of their young studs for starting pitching.

That’s where the Mets come in. New York has a number of established pitchers either in the prime of their careers or on the cusp of promising ones, many of whom would appeal to the Diamondbacks.

The two teams match up on for a trade very well, with the Mets having no legitimate options at shortstop other than Ruben Tejada and the Diamondbacks in need of a starter to solidify their rotation.

This article will focus on Owings rather than Gregorius, as the Mets should target Owings for his greater offensive upside. Arizona general manager Kevin Towers also compared Gregorius to Derek Jeter, so it’s pretty clear he values Gregorius more than the rest of the league, therefore making Gregorius less likely to be dealt.

I will first explain why the Mets should want Chris Owings, and then present three realistic trades that the Mets could make to acquire the young shortstop.

Why the Mets should want Chris Owings

Although Chris Owings has limited experience at the major league level, he should be an impact shortstop for a long time.

The Topps 2013 Pacific Coast League Player of the Year has plus bat speed that allows him to hit balls with authority and gives him the potential to hit for extra-base power. He combines this with a great feel for hitting, which should allow him to be a perennial .280 hitter.

Owings isn’t the most patient at the plate, but considering the lack of impact hitting shortstops across baseball, Owings should be well above average offensively at the position. Owings‘ extra-base hit potential is evident in the below video.

As a 21-year-old in the hitter-friendly PCL, he had a concerning walk rate of just 3.8 percent, but at the same time showed off his hitting prowess with a .330 batting average and .482 slugging percentage. In Ruben Tejada’s single quality season in 2012 in which he hit .289, he had a walk rate of just 5.4 percent and slugged only .351.

Owings‘ fielding is a concern, as he has over 20 errors per season since 2011. However, he displays impressive instincts at shortstop which imply that the high error totals could decline with more experience and could be inflated by the poor quality of minor league infields. Owings was especially impressive defensively in the futures game, making a number of solid plays, especially when he went back nicely on a pop-up.

Acquiring Owings would give the Mets a young shortstop who could be a cornerstone of the resurgence of New York Met baseball, as he has the ability to be an impact hitter at a premium position.

Now, with the Diamondbacks not having a place for Owings to play every day, the Mets need to figure out what packages they would need to put together in order to get the young shortstop as well as decide if making the deals would help both their long- and short-term goals.

Mets trade SP Dillon Gee to Diamondbacks for SS Chris Owings

Dillon Gee established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter in 2013 who is an integral part of the Mets’ 2014 playoff chances, but they need to give something to get something.

Last year Gee came just one inning short of 200 innings and pitched a 3.62 ERA. A mid-rotation starter may not be the sexiest trade piece, but Arizona’s best pitcher, 2013 All Star Patrick Corbin, had an ERA only slightly better than Gee’s, sitting at 3.42.

The Mets have plenty of reasons not to trade Gee. Right now, the Mets’ top four starters are their most dependable assets (outside of David Wright), with the fifth spot likely occupied by a young starter with promise or a cheap veteran yet to be signed this offseason. If the Mets trade Gee, the 2014 team will be forced to be more reliant on young and unproven starters, changing the team’s strength into a potential weakness.

Losing Gee would hurt the Mets’ pitching depth, but because of the multitude of promising young starters New York has on the horizon, risking the 2014 rotation’s stability could be worth it if it could acquire Owings.

Mets Trade SP Jenrry Mejia to Diamondbacks for SS Chris Owings

Jenrry Mejia has the upside as a starter that the Diamondbacks desire, and the risk that comes with Mejia could make the Mets comfortable with letting him go.

Coming into spring training, Mejia is the front-runner for the fifth starter position in the Mets rotation. Last summer he burst onto the scene once after years of being forgotten, coming back from injuries. He looked like a young Pedro Martinez on the mound, both in appearance and as a pitcher, with Mejia’s size and afro, along with his devastating changeup, reminiscent of the former ace.

Mejia was truly amazing in his short 2013 stint. In 27.1 innings, he allowed only 28 hits and four walks while pitching to a 2.30 ERA.

The great talent Mejia put on display in 2013 is why the Diamondbacks would consider parting with Owings, but Mejia comes with a lot of risk. In his career in both the major and minor leagues, he has yet to pitch more than 100 innings in a season and has only eclipsed the 90-inning mark twice.

Mejia’s small frame has always brought up questions about whether he would ever be able to pitch enough innings to be a starter, and the time he’s missed due to injury just adds to those concerns.

The Diamondbacks may prefer the more predictable pitcher in Dillon Gee, but Gee lacks Mejia’s upside. If the Mets were willing to sacrifice their 2014 rotation and make both Gee and Mejia available for Owings, the Diamondbacks could choose between the upside of Mejia or the stability of Gee.

Mets Trade SP Rafael Montero, OF Brandon Nimmo, SP Jake deGrom and SP Gabriel Ynoa to Diamondbacks for SS Chris Owings

This is by far the least likely of the three scenarios present. The Mets would need to create a prospect package around Rafael Montero to acquire the Diamondbacks shortstop.

The prospects in this deal are interchangeable, but the point is that the Mets would need to give up a number of assets other than Montero to acquire Owings. Montero is not highly valued around the league despite his impressive minor league numbers because of his small frame and lack of overwhelming stuff. Montero’s most optimistic projection is as a No. 3 starter at best, but he could be destined for the bullpen.

Unless the Diamondbacks are as high on Montero as most Mets fans, the team will need to include a number of other pieces. Nimmo, deGrom and Ynoa are just examples of a combination of lower-level minor league talent with upside and talent close to the majors it would take to get a deal done.  Deals exclusively involving prospects also rarely happen, making this scenario less likely.

If the Mets are unwilling to trade Mejia or Gee in a deal for Owings, they could turn to this option, however. If the Mets think Montero is destined for the bullpen in the future, they could try and sell high on him in a package to get Owings. They should be careful in considering this deal, however, as Montero’s superb feel for pitching bodes well for his future as a potential mid-rotation starter.

The Mets should be pursuing Chris Owings aggressively and be willing to sacrifice their starting pitching depth if necessary. If the Diamondbacks assert they want additional players than Gee or Mejia, the Mets should back out, but considering the Diamondbacks’ need for starters, both pitchers should be more than a fair price.

Sacrificing starting pitching depth is always tough to do. However, with the chance to acquire a shortstop with an impact bat combined with the promising young pitchers on the horizon for the Mets, Sandy Alderson should look into these different trade scenarios.

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

Propose your own trades in the comment section below, and follow Sean on twitter at @S_CunninghamBR.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reporting that the New York Mets inked Curtis Granderson to a four-year, $60 million deal, the team is undoubtedly improved heading into the 2014 season. However, if the Mets are unwilling to sacrifice more money or assets this offseason to further improve the major league roster, the deal will be a mistake, as New York will fail to capitalize on Granderson’s prime years.

The front office has long advertised 2014 as the year in which the Mets would start competing. With the Jason Bay and Johan Santana contracts coming off the books, fans have long dreamt of signing an impact outfielder such as Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, or Curtis Granderson in the 2013-14 offseason. With Matt Harvey emerging as one of the best pitchers in the National League, contending in 2014 seemed like a tangible possibility if the team had a strong offseason.

Harvey’s Tommy John surgery altered the Mets situation drastically. Heading into 2014 without Harvey, New York’s success depends heavily on the development of young hurlers Zack Wheeler and Jenrry Mejia as well as contributions from prospects Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero. The Mets would also need young hitters like Travis d’Arnaud and Juan Lagares to reach their potential if they have any chance at competing for a 2014 playoff spot.

With the still-developing Mets prospects’ seemingly bright futures further down the road, signing Curtis Granderson makes little sense unless the Mets continue to be aggressive this offseason.

As he currently stands as a player, Granderson’s presence on the Mets makes the team better. As a 33-year-old outfielder, the discernible skills Granderson brings to New York are his power and speed. He has struggled with making consistent contact in recent years, batting .231 cumulatively over the past two seasons.

Granderson should significantly improve the Mets for the 2014 season. Outside of David Wright, New York hasn’t had a position player with this much impact potential since the loss of Jose Reyes.

The slugging outfielder has been an elite big leaguer as recently as 2011, when he placed fourth in the MVP race, finishing with 41 home runs, 119 RBI and a .262/.364/.552 slash-line. While his batting average dropped to .232 in 2012, he still hit 43 home runs and was a game-changing talent.

Many baseball experts around the league have lauded the deal for the Mets. ESPN’s Keith Law believes that with New York’s young rotation, this signing immediately improves the Mets outfield and should help them compete in 2015. FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris thinks that Granderson should age gracefully because of his style of play, and that “He fills a desperate need for the Mets, who don’t have great short- or long-term options at his position.”

David Wright was also among those thrilled by the signing, as evidenced by the quote below:

Despite Granderson’s immediate impact on the team and the support behind the signing, the track record for outfielders following their age-33 season is bleak, a topic discussed in depth by Toby Hyde at MetsMinorLeagueBlog.com. Hyde analyzed players with similar skill sets and careers as Granderson heading into the latter stages of their careers, and found that almost universally the players’ WARs decline sharply.

Hyde also analyzed Granderson’s decline heading into this offseason, pointing out the very concerning increase in the outfielder’s strikeout percentage, rising from 19.9 percent in 2009 to over 28 percent in each of the last two seasons. With Granderson already noticeably declining, along with the poor track record of similar players, the chances of him being an above-average regular by the end of the contract are slim.

There is also the question of whether or not Curtis Granderson significantly cures the Mets offensive woes. As Kevin Burkhardt notes, in 2013 New York finished tied for 22nd in runs, 24th in OBP, 29th in slugging percentage and tied for 24th in home runs. They did this with Marlon Byrd in the lineup for most of the season, and Byrd hit .285 with a .518 slugging percentage and 21 home runs.

The Mets can expect slightly more home runs from Granderson than Byrd, with a significantly lower batting average. The Mets offense ranked as low as it did despite Byrd’s career year, and by replacing Byrd’s statistics with Granderson’s marginally better production, the front office made a small dent into the team’s offensive woes.

For fans, the Granderson signing is easy to like. While the Mets have stockpiled pitching talent, their lineup has remained underwhelming despite David Wright’s presence, and Granderson gives New Yorkers a reason to come to Citi Field.

Despite how the deal makes the Mets better in the short term, New York must approach the winter meetings with an aggressive attitude.

Bleacher Report’s Joe Giglio lays out his view of the next steps for the Mets, citing the team’s need for a shortstop, a stable first baseman and a veteran arm. If the Mets fail to improve the team drastically in these areas for the 2014 season either through free agency or trades, the Granderson deal will be a failure, as the Mets need to capitalize on the years of production the slugging outfielder has left.

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All statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.

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With the Hot Stove season in full swing and rumors flying around about what the New York Mets will do in free agency, the 2014 roster is far from set.

While moves in free agency and the trade market need to be made before the Mets can be considered a potential playoff team, there is one player already on the roster whose development can push the Mets to a 2014 playoff berth: Travis d’Arnaud. 

The young catcher who was the centerpiece of the R.A. Dickey trade has long been considered one of the elite prospects in baseball. D’Arnaud’s 2013 season was far from ideal, as much of it was lost to injury. Once he was healthy and called up to the majors, he underperformed, batting just .202 with one home run in 99 at-bats.  

The excitement fans once had for d’Arnaud has shifted away from him to Noah Syndergaard, the other top prospect acquired for R.A. Dickey.

Fans of the team need to step back and realize what they have in Travis d’Arnaud. Prospects do not always pan out, but scouts believe that the only thing that could hold his career back is injuries, not talent. He plays a premium position in catcher (and plays it very well), and if d’Arnaud blossoms and remains healthy in 2014, the Mets could have a top-flight catcher that would be the envy of much of the league.

D’Arnaud has the potential to be special because of both the potential of his bat and his glove.

Offensive Potential

With catcher being a position where less offense is expected, the fact that d’Arnaud has potential to be a plus hitter alone makes him a stud of a prospect.

He has some weaknesses as a hitter, including his long swing and poor patience at the plate evidenced by his strikeout-to-walk ratio in the minor leagues.  In 2012 for the Blue Jays Double-A affiliate, d’Arnaud had a walk rate of just 6.3 percent compared to a strikeout rate of 19.5 percent.

D’Arnaud struggled in his time in the majors in 2013, but he actually quelled the fears of many talent evaluators with his patience at the plate, posting a walk-rate of 10.9 percent. He also has many strengths as a hitter, exhibited by his consistently high performance in the upper levels of the minors. 

Jason Parks, the head prospect writer for Baseball Prospectus, prior to the 2013 season ranked Travis d’Arnaud as the 15^th best prospect in baseball. In Parks’ evaluation, he noted d’Arnaud’s above-average bat speed and good contact ability as strengths, and that he had “swing characteristics for power production.”

Scouts also rave about d’Arnaud’s approach at the plate, as he focuses on hitting the ball up the middle allowing him to drive the ball to all parts of the field. In the video to the right, while d’Arnaud was playing for the Blue Jays Double-A affiliate he made t-shirts that said “oppo-taco,” something he would yell in the dugout after hitting an opposite field home run.  

Opposite field power is a rare attribute that d’Arnaud has, and it is a trait that helps David Wright be the balanced hitter he is today.

Because of d’Arnaud’s historically balanced approach towards hitting, his struggles in August and September can be attributed to pressure to perform early on that can lead to a tendency to pull and get off balance while hitting.

Jason Parks noted this as a weakness in d’Arnaud’s game, saying how his aggressive approach led to a tendency to pull off balls. Parks also predicted d’Arnaud’s early struggles, stating that, “His biggest hurdle will be the adjustment against major league quality pitching, as his approach and setup both show signs of vulnerability.”

While fans witnessed this adjustment period, they should be patient and understand that this young man has the tools and makeup to work through these problems and become an offensive force.

While d’Arnaud’s performance at the plate in the majors was underwhelming, the combination of his increased walk rate and his track record as an impact hitter gives reason to be optimistic about his future offense.

If d’Arnaud becomes an impact hitter, it could help propel the Mets to the playoffs by lengthening their lineup and giving them production from a position that is generally lacking in the majors. 

Defensive Potential

Even if d’Arnaud’s offense is never pans out, his defense should make him a staple in the Mets’ lineup for years to come. D’Arnaud has been lauded for a variety of his defensive traits, including his pitch framing ability and how he builds relationships with pitchers.

D’Arnaud’s pitch framing was one of the characteristics of his game that first caught the eye of teammates. Via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, Matt Harvey said after just a few starts throwing to him that he felt d’Arnaud had Molina-like qualities behind the plate, while Zack Wheeler said, “When the balls are down, he does something that makes them look like they’re strikes. It’s ridiculous.”

In Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus’ analysis of catcher framing, scout Jason Cole told him a pitcher “had raved about d’Arnaud having the strongest wrists he’d seen, enabling him to throw sinkers below the zone for strikes throughout the game.”

Pitch framing ability is becoming seen as an integral component when evaluating catcher defense, and d’Arnaud excels at it.

With Matt Harvey out for the season, d’Arnaud’s ability to work with young hurlers Zack Wheeler and (at some point) Noah Syndergaard is integral both for the Mets competing in 2014 as well as the future development of the team’s young arms.

The pitching staff has openly stated how comfortable they are throwing to d’Arnaud. Via Chris Iseman of MLB.com, Dillon Gee said how d’Arnaud “comes to me and starts talking about how I like to pitch guys, what I like to go to, just trying to figure me out.” Jon Niese agreed, saying how “going forward, it’s going to be good for us to learn the hitters together.”

With his baseball intellect and willingness to figure out his pitcher’s strengths and weaknesses, d’Arnaud makes himself that much more valuable to the 2014 Mets.

Outside of catchers such as Yadier Molina, Buster Posey and Matt Wieters, the position is generally weak throughout baseball. Due to the nature of the position, catchers often decline rapidly as they age and are forced off of the position (like Joe Mauer recently).

While there are solid catchers in the league like Kansas City’s Salvador Perez and Cleveland’s Carlos Santana, d’Arnaud’s ceiling as a prospect indicates he could be among the best in the league. If d’Arnaud develops into the player that most scouts expect him to become, having an elite catcher is an asset that could propel the Mets into the 2014 playoff picture.

A 2014 playoff run is still far from reality as the Mets have many holes. With Matt Harvey out and many vacancies to be filled in free agency, a number of things need to happen before the team can be competitive.

But if Travis d’Arnaud can overcome his injury-ridden past and fulfill his potential as one of the best catchers in the league, he could be the difference between the 2014 Mets remaining in mediocrity or rising to relevancy once again.

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