Kuzul

The White Sox added one of the games top power hitters in Adam Dunn on Friday, signing him to a four year, $56 million dollar contract. The move gives the Sox a much needed left-handed power hitter. This move, however, doesn’t mean the White Sox won’t quit their pursuit of resigning Paul Konerko. 

Dunn has hit more than 38 or more home runs in 7 consecutive seasons. For Washington last season, Dunn hit 38 home runs and drove in 103 runs. He’s been on National League teams his whole career, starting with the Reds in 2001, and finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.

Along with the Reds, he’s also played for the D-backs, and Nationals. In his career, Dunn has hit .250/.381/.521 with 354 home runs. He’s also played in 150 games in all but two seasons in the Majors. Obviously his offense and durability hasn’t been the question with Dunn, but his defense, high strike out rate, and batting average are. Dunn is a career .250 hitter and is known for his bad defense and high strike-out rate as well as his tremendous power. 

The White Sox do have the luxury of playing him at DH so they won’t have to play Dunn on the field and can put a much superior defender in the outfield. Dunn though, isn’t exactly fond of being a DH and would still like to play the field despite his bad defense. Still, Dunn can focus on being what he was signed to do for Chicago. Being their left-handed, middle of the order, power hitter. However, Dunn might see time at first base if the White Sox can’t resign Konerko.

Dunn became a free agent this season after turning down extension offers from the Nationals and being in a lot of trade rumors throughout the 2010 season. Since he was a type A free agent, the Nationals get the White Sox’s first round pick for signing Dunn.

I think this is a pretty good signing for the White Sox as they have another power hitter in a line-up that’s already pretty good. Though his strikeouts are a bit of a problem, his bad defense won’t be exposed if he’s playing most of his games at the DH spot.

He also doesn’t have to be the only power threat in the line-up like he was before with the likes of Carlos Quintin, Alex Rios, and Paul Konerko (if he re-signs) around him. This big signing doesn’t mean the White Sox are done. They still have plenty of issues to resolve, including their closer situation and the rest of the bullpen. I think that this signing is a step in the right direction for the White Sox and they should put up yet another challenge for the Twins in the AL central in 2011

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Cliff Lee is by far the most attractive, and at the same time, most expensive option on the market this off-season. But after Lee, there’s a big drop off in the market.

There are still a couple of pitchers who have the potential to be a solid top of the rotation starter available though, who are far cheaper than Lee. Unfortunately, they haven’t shown any of that in recent seasons.

Some suffered injuries that have derailed their careers, while others have had down years. A few have just plain stunk. Here are nine Free Agent pitchers who I think will bounce back in 2011 and are worth taking a chance on if your team is in need of pitching.

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Cincinnati Reds:

Strengths: Nothing like starting with the weakest team from the weakest division.

It’s pretty simple with the Reds this year. They added a couple of veterans in Scott Rolen and Orlando Cabrera, got an MVP-caliber season from Joey Votto, and did just enough pitching to walk away with the NL Central crown.

The Reds’ regular season success came from being the best offense in the National League. Playing in the Great American Launching Pad is always nice, but the offense is well-balanced, and there really isn’t much of a soft spot in the order.

With Drew Stubbs at the top of the lineup, the Reds will be able to get a running game going if Stubbs can get on base. Combine that with the forces that are Joey Votto and Scott Rolen, and the Reds could get on the board against any pitcher in a hurry.

The Reds are a strikeout-prone offense, but they also make a lot of contact and draw a decent number of walks.

Weaknesses:  Pitching is going to be the biggest concern for the Reds in the postseason.

They don’t really have an ace at the front of their rotation, and the only reliable innings eater they have is Bronson Arroyo. The Reds do, however, have a solid bullpen, so if they can get solid outings from their starters, they stand a fighting chance against Philadelphia.

Key Note: The Reds struggled big time with good teams this season.

They lost the season series with the Giants, Braves, and Phillies, and were outscored 110-88 in 19 games against those three teams. A rather soft schedule got them to the postseason, so they’ll have to learn quickly to play with the big boys if they want to win anything.

Prediction: Out in the first round.

Philadelphia Phillies:

Strengths: The Phillies have the best playoff rotation of any team in the league.

Roy Halladay, as the ace of the staff, is probably the NL Cy Young winner, and Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels both have experience in the postseason and in the World Series. With three veteran arms at the front of the rotation, the Phillies should feel confident in their abilities to win any game.

They’re no slouch at the rest of the game, either. Their offense was second in runs scored behind the Reds, and has even more speed. Defensively, their infield is great, and Carlos Ruiz is solid behind the plate.

Weaknesses: It’s damn hard to find anything wrong with this team. They have the starting pitching, a solid back end of the bullpen, good team speed, solid team defense, and an offense that can put runs up on the board.

Key Note:  The Phillies have home-field throughout the playoffs, and probably have the best roster of any team.

Prediction: World Series appearance 

Atlanta Braves:

Strengths: The Braves do not have a regular bullpen arm with an ERA over 3. Billy Wagner has an ERA of 1.43 and Venters has an ERA of 1.95.

The Braves have to feel very comfortable with the back end of the bullpen.

The other part of the Braves’ roster that they can feel comfortable in is the middle of the order. Prado/McCann/Heyward/Lee is a solid core in an offense with plenty of pop.

Weaknesses: After the duo of Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson, the Braves really don’t have an arm that can step in and be a legitimate force in the rotation. Kris Medlen and Derek Lowe are the two best options for the 3 and 4 spots, but if the Braves are looking to stop a sweep, they can’t feel terribly great about their chances.

Key Note: The Braves play exceptionally well at home. If they can steal a win on the road, I think they can take just about anyone in a short series.

Prediction:  Out in the first round.

San Francisco Giants:

Strengths: Cain/Lincecum/Sanchez/Bumgarner. Four guys that deliver quality starts against good offenses.

I think this is the deepest rotation and pitching staff in the postseason. The Giants finished with a 3.36 team ERA, which is just absurd over 1,461 innings.

I feel bad for any offense that has to go into San Francisco and try to score runs against the Giants.

Weakness: The Giants don’t really have a lot of pop in their lineup. It helps that they are used to “manufacturing runs,” but I don’t think they will have a great time trying to score runs against playoff-caliber rotations without being able to consistently hit the long ball.

Also, the Giants have almost no team speed. Andres Torres is the only player on the team with double-digits in stolen bases (with 26), and the next highest total on the team is Aubrey Huff with seven.

Key Note: The Giants are built to their ballpark. If somehow Cincinnati beats Philly, I really like the Giants’ chances to get to the World Series.

Prediction: Advance to the National League Championship Series.

Texas Rangers:

Strengths: The Rangers’ biggest strength is their ability to make contact with the ball. They had the fourth-fewest strikeouts in the American League, and were first in batting average while being sixth in slugging percentage.

The Rangers will make other teams play solid defense to beat them, which seems to be harder to do under the pressure of the postseason. The Rangers may not have a great starting rotation (Lee/Wilson/Lewis is OK), but the back end of the bullpen with Feliz and O’Day can be nasty at times.

Weaknesses: The Rangers simply stink at hitting the ball on the road.

Their BA drops 23 points, the OBP drops 28 points, and the SLG drops 56 points when the Rangers go on the road. They also scored 73 fewer runs in 56 MORE PA as a team on the road when compared to being at home.

Key Note: Last year, Cliff Lee was phenomenal in the postseason for the Phillies. He hasn’t been as good in Texas, but with his great control and experience in the postseason, Lee could definitely be a force in the postseason and is playing for a contract.

Prediction: Out in first round after a five-game series with Tampa.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Strengths: The Rays are definitely what I would consider to be a “small ball” team. They play great defense, and will look to get the running game going.

Both B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford stole more than 40 bases this season, and were caught a total of 19 times. Ben Zobrist stole 24, and three other players were in double digits.

The Rays aren’t afraid to steal bases against anyone.

As far as pitching, the Rays have a young ace in David Price and a solid No. 2 in Matt Garza, and have one of the most reliable closers in the game in 2010, Rafael Soriano, along with Joaquin Benoit, who was lights-out this season.

Weaknesses: The Rays swung and missed more than any team in the American League.

They had a terrible team batting average because of this, and against strikeout pitchers like Francisco Liriano, CC Sabathia, and others, the Rays will likely struggle. Also, the Rays really don’t have much depth in the starting rotation or on their offensive bench.

Key Note: The Rays won the season series with New York, Minnesota, and Texas. They also played very well on the road, winning 58 percent of their road games. They won’t be easy to beat anywhere.

Prediction: Advance to ALCS.

New York Yankees:

Strengths: The Yankees have the deepest lineup in the majors.

They don’t make a ton of contact, but they draw a ton of walks and hit the living tar out of the ball when they do make contact (third in the AL in slugging). If the Yankees win in the postseason, it is going to be because they have a great offense.

Weaknesses: Pitching—The Yankees have a problem with their pitching staff.

The only reliable arm in the rotation is Sabathia, and getting to Mariano Rivera will be an issue. Kerry Wood is going to have to show up big time if the Yankees are going anywhere.

Key Note: The Yankees are the defending champs and have a ton of postseason experience on their roster. Even though they aren’t the most talented team in the field, they will be the hardest to beat in the American League, IMO.

Prediction: Out in the first round.

Minnesota Twins:

Strengths: The Twins don’t strike out often, make tons of contact, draw a bunch of walks, and hit for a lot of power (fourth in the AL in SLG in Target Field without Justin Morneau for half a year).

The lineup is insanely deep, with the weakest part of it being the leadoff hitter (Denard Span). If Span gets on base, watch out, because the Twins will score a ton of runs on just about anyone.

Weaknesses: The Twins have a major decision to make as to who is going to start in a Games 3 or 4 in any given series.

After Pavano and Liriano, the Twins don’t have a solid option in the rotation. Brian Deunsing has been very good, so he will most likely start as the No. 3 guy, but the Twins will have to expose the weaker AL postseason rotations if they want to win.

The Twins also do not have much team speed. They only stole 68 bases as a team (good for 12th in the league).

Key Note: The Twins are playing their first home playoff games outdoors in a long time. They defended their home turf very well, and if they can get past the Evil Empire, I think they have a great shot at winning it all.

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Baseball-reference has a stat that is rarely ever used: bequeathed runners. 

It’s the number of runners on base when a pitcher leaves the game.  Subsequently, there’s also a stat on how many of these runners score.  These runs are added to the starter’s ERA, even though the relief pitcher was pitching and, ultimately, allowed the runs to score. 

Want a full year of data? Look at the stats from 2009. 

Roy Halladay is the only starter who didn’t have a single bequeathed runner.  Think about that.  He started 32 games and left every single game without a runner on base.  Of course, leading the league in complete games helped.  His 2.79 ERA is a true representation of how he pitched.

On the opposite end are Jonathan Sanchez and Zach Miner who had 30 bequeathed runners apiece.  In Sanchez’ case, seven of them scored— his ERA ended up being 4.24. 

I’m not one to change stats, but I’ll do a “what if” here.  If none of Sanchez’ seven bequeathed runners would’ve scored, his ERA would have dropped to 3.86.  And if the Giants had an awful bullpen and all 30 of them would have scored, his ERA would skyrocket to 5.51. 

That’s a 1.65 range that his ERA could have fallen to.  Since less than half of the 30 scored, he was fortunate to be on the low end of that, but he could just easily have been on the high end.

Miner had a very similar ERA at 4.27, but 11 of his bequeathed runners scored.  Since he didn’t pitch as many innings as Sanchez, his range was higher.  His ERA could have been anywhere from 3.22 to 6.14; a difference of 2.92! 

Miner is an unusual case, since he only had 5 starts; the majority of bequeathed runs come from starters.  A pitcher’s bequeathed runners become another pitcher’s inherited runners, a more common stat that is used to gauge relievers.  Miner had 29 inherited runners and 10 of them scored; so I guess you could say his ERA is pretty accurate, as his 10 runs scored from inherited runners cancel out his 11 runs scored from bequeathed runners.  Are you as confused as I am? 

Who had the worst luck?  Probably Roy Oswalt.  11 of his 12 bequeathed runners scored.  His ERA would have fallen in the range of 3.57 to 4.17.  The low end of that was more in line of what was expected. 

The best luck?  A.J. Burnett.  Only 1 of his 19 bequeathed runners scored.  His ERA range was between 4.00 and 4.83. 

Another Yankee, Joba Chamberlain also had good luck, only 1 of his 14 bequeathed runner scored.  His ERA range was from 4.69 to 5.49.  The Yankees bullpen was really good (3.91 ERA) so this is understandable.

I could keep going on with other examples, but you get the idea. 

What does this all mean?  Not much. It’s a very interesting statistic, but l ike I said, I’m not one to change stats. 

This could, however, be a useful tool in fantasy baseball strategies. 

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