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How the Chicago Cubs Can Take Next Step from 2015 Darlings to 2016 Favorites

The 2015 Cubs season was an appetizer of sorts. It didn’t necessarily represent accomplishment but rather possibilities for a young core that will remain in Chicago for several more years.

No one walks into any restaurant because of its tasty appetizers. But certainly they can excite you about what else the chef has to offer. If anything, they increase your appetite. They leave you wanting more.

The Cubs want more, as they are hardly satisfied with a National League Championship appearance that ended in a sweep by the New York Mets. They want a World Series and appear close toward the goal of ending professional sports’ most futile streak. (For disclosure’s sake, though many of you already know, the Cubs haven’t won a World Series since 1908 or played in one since 1945.)

It’s time to move on to the main course, and for that, the team needs a few more ingredients.

While the Cubs exceeded expectations with a playoff appearance in 2015—one that actually wasn’t expected from this group until 2016—holes in the roster were exposed. A young, talented group of position players couldn’t overcome a lack of starting pitching depth. The NLCS lesson? A team needs a deep rotation to win.

The Cubs relied heavily on an impressive group of rookie position players in 2015, including third baseman Kris Bryant (.275 AVG/.369 OBP/.488 SLG), shortstop Addison Russell (.242/.307/.389), left fielder/catcher Kyle Schwarber (.246/.355/.487) and right fielder Jorge Soler (.262/.324/.399). While each should improve upon his inaugural major league campaign, offensive slumps are inevitable.

There isn’t a team in baseball that can rely solely on its offense carrying it throughout the year. That would be like Picasso using only one primary color. And especially in the playoffs when the rotations get shorter and the pitching gets tougher, the Cubs will need reliable arms to ultimately play in November.

This season the Cubs had one of the best front-end rotations in presumptive 2015 National League Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta and lefty Jon Lester, who signed a six-year $155 million deal last offseason. The plan always was to continue to build the rotation around Lester in the winter of 2015.

Arrieta went 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA. Lester went 11-12 with a 3.34 ERA. Most importantly, the duo was one of two pitching tandems in baseball each with a WAR of over 5.0. Arrieta’s WAR during the regular season was 7.3 and Lester’s 5.6. (The Los Angeles Dodgers were the only other team with such a starting tandem. Clayton Kershaw led all pitchers with a WAR of 8.6 and Zach Greinke’s was 5.9.)

But beyond Arrieta and Lester, the Cubs struggled to find reliable starters even before the playoffs began. Righty Jason Hammel struggled mightily for the Cubs, and while Kyle Hendricks proved reliable, he’s more a fifth starter on a solid rotation. Hendricks was third in the Cubs’ rotation this postseason.

The good news: There are plenty of high-end starting pitchers on the free-agent market. The Cubs should look to sign two.

Atop their wish list should be left-hander David Price. Price began the season with the Detroit Tigers, was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays at the deadline and was crucial in Toronto’s push toward the playoffs. The Blue Jays are expected to make Price an offer, but the Cubs could outbid Toronto if they chose.

Price, baseball’s coveted free agent this offseason, was tied for third among pitchers with a 6.4 WAR. He has consistently been among baseball’s top-five left-handed pitchers. The major selling point for Price signing with the Cubs? He would be reunited with Joe Maddon, who managed Price in each of his six-plus seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays

But the fragility of arms—no matter whose they are—dictate the need for rotational depth. Plus, as we saw in this year’s NLCS, Maddon likes to go four pitchers deep in a seven-game series.

Righties Greinke and Jeff Samardzija, both considered among baseball’s most durable arms, would be great secondary additions.

Greinke, who opted out of his deal with the Dodgers this offseason, is likely to re-sign with Los Angeles. But the Cubs will be in the mix, too. Aside from Greinke’s stellar 2015 campaign (19-3, 1.66 ERA), he has never spent time on the disabled list with an arm injury. So, though 32, his health is less of a concern than it might be with other pitchers over 30.

Likewise, Samardzija has proven durable and will come cheaper than most of his free-agent counterparts after a disappointing 2015 season (11-13, 4.96 ERA). He was one of baseball’s best pitchers with the Cubs in 2014. Though he was traded at the deadline to the Oakland A’s, while with the Cubs in 2014 Samardzija had a 2.88 ERA. He was only traded because he demanded too large a contract. But now that the Cubs have some leverage back and with Samardzija looking to bounce back, it appears like a good fit.

Of course, starting pitching isn’t the only area of need. The Cubs must continue to tweak a bullpen that was shuffled throughout 2015. And center fielder Dexter Fowler is a free agent this offseason, leaving a gaping hole at the top of the Cubs’ order.

What they do to replace Fowler may depend on how much they spend on starting pitching. But Yoenis Cespedes, whom the Cubs were rumored to have interest in before he was traded to the Mets at the deadline, could fill the void.

Cespedes, who had 35 homers and 105 RBI in 2015, would fit nicely into a Cubs lineup that wants to win with power. He also has a strong arm and can play all three outfield positions—a key in playing for Maddon, who likes to move players around the field.

Prioritizing, though, will be important for the Cubs this offseason. A carefully planned winter could net the Cubs better results next October. But while the organization continues to chase that elusive World Series, it must first own the offseason.

A championship could be won this winter.

WAR pitching stats were obtained via Fangraphs.com. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Cubs’ NLCS Trip Dethrones Cardinals, Puts World Series Dreams in View

CHICAGO — Every traditional sports rivalry has similar components—geography, divisional ties and decades of history. The CubsCardinals rivalry can be similarly characterized but with one very unique attribute attached: envy. 

Since Joe Torre left the Yankees, the Cardinals, inarguably, have been baseball’s hallmark franchise. The Cubs? They want to be, well, the Cardinals. As blasphemous as that may sound in Cubdom, the ideals of the Theo Epstein era—scouting, top-flight drafting and prospect development—mirror those that have made St. Louis so successful.

No rebuild was to be complete until Chicago bested baseball’s kingpin. So when the Cubs won Game 4 of their National League Division Series 6-4 on Tuesday, clinching a series at Wrigley Field for the first time in the park’s 101-year history, it marked the biggest milestone in this renaissance.

Epstein, president of baseball operations, commented on the success of this year’s team after the victory:

It’s incredibly meaningful because of what we went through the last three years and because we were in it all together. There wasn’t a single cog in the wheel that was compromised that would have made the whole thing fall apart. (Manager) Joe (Maddon) and the staff set the tone, set the whole vibe. The veteran players embraced the young guys. The young guys showed incredible mental toughness.

When the season began, it was thought that the team was a year away from a playoff run. Kris Bryant, baseball’s top-ranked prospect, didn’t break camp with the major league club so the organization could retain an extra year of contractual control.

Big-hitting lefty Kyle Schwarber was considered an unfinished product in the field. And with veteran catchers David Ross and Miguel Montero on the roster, there wasn’t thought to be room. It seemed even the Cubs’ brass was unsure whether Schwarber would have an impact on this year’s team.

But Maddon put the puzzle together. When Schwarber quickly proved his bat major league ready—as much was evident on a moonshot homer by the rookie in the seventh inning of Tuesday’s game—Maddon found a place for him in left field.

The Cubs manager manipulated the roster to perfection all season.

Maddon, who was brought to Chicago amidst some controversy after the Cubs fired Rick Renteria following only one season to make a place for him, continued to justify the move Tuesday. He elected to start Javier Baez at short, despite his struggles against Cardinals starter John Lackey. In the second inning, with the Cubs down 2-1, Baez hit a three-run homer.

But first and foremost, Maddon was hired by the Cubs for his influence. Before him, Lou Piniella had said that managing the franchise was “different,” alluding to the history of futility that has followed each team. Maddon has seemed to ignore that history—convincing his players to do so as well.

When St. Louis tied the game at 4 in the sixth inning, thoughts of billy goats and Steve Bartman were palpable. Was this going to be the moment the Cubs blew it? Not this team. Not this manager.

In the bottom of the frame, with two outs and the count 0-2, first baseman Anthony Rizzo hit a homer to give the Cubs the lead for good. With that swing of his bat, Rizzo may very well have turned the Cubs’ fortunes.

“We’re too young, too naive, which is good,” Bryant said of the players discussing the team’s longstanding futility. “We have that on our side. We realize what’s at stake here, and we’re living a dream right now. We’ve just got to keep playing the way we’ve been.”

Tuesday, it all culminated in a celebration that some might call over the top. Fans remained in Wrigley Field hours after the game to share in the celebration. Players drenched them with champagne.

“The fans all these years—and I don’t mean since 1908, I mean these last few years where we’ve really said, ‘Look, we got to do it the right way. It’s going to really take time. Please hang with us and believe in us.’—they have,” Cubs owner Tom Ricketts said while getting drenched with champagne in the team’s clubhouse.

Said Maddon: “You want to be able to share the success. You don’t want to be successful by yourself. It’s something to be shared.

“I hope the message, down the road, turns more positive on a consistent basis.”

The rebuild isn’t complete. This team has yet to arrive. With an NLCS win, the Cubs would make their first World Series since 1945. A World Series win would be their first since 1908.

Tuesday ended with some sobering thoughts, as it should for a team that has stated its high expectations. But there was something to celebrate, too.

Because for the first time in a long time, the Cardinals will have to watch the Cubs play baseball in October.

 

Seth Gruen recently spent four years at the Chicago Sun-Times covering a variety of sports, including baseball. Before that, he served as the Northwest Herald‘s Cubs and White Sox beat writer.

Feel free to follow and talk sports with Seth on Twitter @SethGruen.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Max Kepler, the German Baseball Player Who Spurned Soccer for MLB Dreams

The most middling players in Europe’s top soccer leagues are guaranteed transformational wealth, supermodel girlfriends and unrivaled celebrity.

A sea of people stacked five deep around the entrance to a nightclub will part ways for one of its soccer stars to enter. Restaurant reservations will be honored—so long as a player doesn’t show up unannounced. It’s a utopia for most European men that few get to enjoy and nearly all envy.

And most find out if they’ve won this genetic lottery before their teenage years.

While the offer of a scholarship to a prepubescent seventh-grader makes the college football faithful gasp in this country, European professional clubs already have snagged soccer phenoms by that age to play in their youth academies. So coveted is the opportunity to be selected into the youth academy of a known professional club that children around Europe move great distances for the chance.

Max Kepler was fortunate to be one of the few. And one of the fewer who didn’t even have to move. In his hometown of Berlin, he was a goalie for the youth academy of Hertha BSC, one of the storied clubs in Germany’s famed Bundesliga.

Hertha BSC is known for graduating youth talent to top leagues across Europe. Kepler was thought to be so athletic he even played some attacking positions as a reserve. In his early teens, Kepler was a prodigy. Then, suddenly, he veered off the path.

If he lived in any number of other countries, the idea of abandoning soccer wouldn’t inspire shock. Most would understand that a number of sports would suit someone as athletically gifted as Kepler.

But not in Europe. Especially not in Germany, where other athletic endeavors are barely given a passing glance. The move was as much a head-scratcher to his envious classmates as it was to his Polish-born father.

Kepler gave up his country’s favorite pastime for that of another: At 15 years old, he ditched soccer for baseball.

“Soccer is the No. 1 sport in Germany,” Kepler said. “Baseball was barely poking its head out the window at the time.

“Being one of the best [soccer players] in my school, people frowned about it and they were just surprised that I would take baseball which is kind of a long jump.”

He has landed squarely, though, as one of the most promising players in the Minnesota Twins’ minor league system. This past season, at 22, he won the Southern League MVP for the Twins’ Double-A affiliate Chattanooga Lookouts, hitting .322 with an on-base percentage of .416 and slugging .531.

Kepler led the Lookouts to the Southern League Championship, beating the Biloxi Shuckers in the decisive fifth game on Monday. Shortly after that game, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported that Kepler had been called up by the Twins—a move that has been expected for weeks.

But unlike soccer, he wasn’t destined for a career in baseball. Baseball didn’t provide him the same clear-cut opportunities. He had to seek out a foggy, much less direct road to pursue his baseball dream. A lack of competition puts European baseball players at a predisposed disadvantage. Getting noticed by scouts would be a long shot.

Kepler’s parents are both ballet dancers who moved to Germany to chase their own profession. His father successfully imparted his love for soccer onto his son.

But it didn’t deter Kepler’s passion for baseball, introduced to him by his American-born mother. With few leagues competitive enough to help Kepler develop as a high school player, his mother canvassed the country for better opportunities in the sport.

She found a league in Bavaria, a city far from Berlin in the southeastern part of the country. Playing in Bavaria meant having to attend a boarding school. It meant having to give up playing in the Hertha youth academy. But it also meant the opportunity to play in a league that had connections to the United States.

Kepler dominated. But the competition was substandard. In the United States, top high school players can face each other in the Area Code Games and AAU baseball. The top college talent has the wood bat Cape Cod League.

The best pitcher Kepler faced in Germany threw 85 miles per hour. But on a given weekend of games, it was more likely he would see 75.

If Kepler were to advance in the game, he would need to travel to the United States.

“People were telling me about going abroad and playing ball in the states, which I never heard of,” Kepler said. “It kind of got me thinking: I want to go abroad and see what another country has to offer.”

The signing wasn’t some flyer by a Twins organization looking to bolster its minor league system. Kepler’s raw ability was apparent to every scout who watched him. Soon, word of his prowess circulated among baseball evaluators.

His 6’4″ frame was suited to play multiple positions in the field, but with his speed and range, the Twins cast him primarily as a center fielder. To top it all off, he’s a lefty.

Kepler had offers from some 15 major league franchises, but he finally settled on the Twins—signing for a European-record bonus of $800,000. The windfall wouldn’t secure his future in perpetuity, but the investment by the Twins meant one thing for sure: a chance. So, it appeared, by 17 years old, baseball hadn’t led him entirely astray.

He moved to the United States and finished his final semester of high school before entering the Twins’ minor league system. Bereft of an accent, Kepler speaks English with a Midwestern sensibility—humble, deliberate and honest. He also had spent time in Texas. So unlike other foreign-born baseball players, navigating rural America’s minor league system wasn’t a cultural challenge.

But the workmanlike nature of the minor leagues stood in stark contrast to the fast-tracked world of professional soccer. Had all gone according to plan, Kepler would have signed a professional contract by 17. Development in baseball is much more of a process.

Really, Kepler had no choice but to embrace it. Patience was paramount for both Kepler and the Twins. Current manager Paul Molitor, who was the Twins’ minor league base running coach and infield coordinator during Kepler’s first three seasons in the system, called him “raw.” He wasn’t looked upon as an immediate-impact guy even at the lowest levels.

The goal of any player is to react more and think less. Players in baseball-immersed countries enter the minors with a working knowledge of the game, allowing them to do just that. But growing up in Germany, Kepler couldn’t turn on the television and watch baseball. He couldn’t walk down the street and take fielding practice with friends. And finding a batting cage was a bit of a challenge. Kepler wasn’t exposed to the myriad situations in this uber situational sport.

“It’s been a little bit of a different developmental curve for him both in terms of his own and competing with players he probably never saw the likes of back home,” Molitor said. “He’s begun to figure it out.”

An elbow injury in 2013 derailed his development and kept him out for about two months. The injury has caused some to believe long term he is a first baseman. But Molitor said his intentions are to play Kepler in the outfield, where his speed is a defensive asset.

Spending 2013 and 2014 in the Arizona Fall League helped Kepler’s development tremendously, and this year he has hit for career highs in average, on-base percentage, slugging, RBI (21) and triples (13). He is a solid four-tool player, working on a fifth—his power.

Kepler hit only nine homers this season and said he is focused on rounding out his game by adding that element. For any wannabe slugger, that means pulling the ball early in the count.

But even without that slugger’s mentality, Kepler has impressed the Twins brass and teammates alike. Molitor said he has a “major league sound to his bat.”

Pitcher Tyler Duffey, a reliever with the Twins who played with Kepler in Minnesota’s system, likened him to Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton. Similarly, stories of profound athleticism followed Hamilton until his major league debut in 2007.

“He’s really been blessed as an athlete in general but more so as a baseball player,” Duffey said. “Everything is smooth too. It doesn’t look like he’s going balls to the wall even though he is.

“I think he could have played any sport he wanted to. I guess the Twins are lucky he played baseball.”

Kepler may, in fact, have played his finals days of minor league baseball. He may leave spring training with the Twins in 2016, which very likely could be a one-way trip to the big leagues.

Performing well with the Twins amid a wild-card race would help Kepler’s cause in 2016, when he is expected to compete for a spot on the major league roster. Kepler is well aware of the talk that surrounds his budding career.

“It’s tempting to go on Twitter and look into it,” Kepler said, amid the Lookouts’ playoff run. “But most of the time I just try to focus on the stuff going on down here.”

Kepler’s popularity began growing in Minneapolis weeks ago. Ask around Target Field and many know the name, some even the face. It seems Kepler chose the sport that, all along, he was meant to play.

 

Seth Gruen recently spent four years at the Chicago Sun-Times covering a variety of sports, including baseball. Before that, he served as the Northwest Herald‘s Cubs and White Sox beat writer.

Feel free to follow and talk sports with Seth at his Twitter account, @SethGruen.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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