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Lack of Big Free Agents Will Give 2016-17 MLB Offseason Trade Deadline Feel

If you know the feeling when you sit down at a restaurant and the server tells you the place is out of your favorite dish, you can empathize with baseball executives heading into this offseason.

Free agency typically provides general managers with a wide-ranging selection of players who can improve their chances heading into the upcoming season. This offseason, though, it’s as if baseball is out of everything on the menu.

Winter might actually feel like August in Death Valley for the likes of hopeful contenders in 2017. The list of available impact players is shorter than that of presidents on U.S. currency, making a typically prosperous time seem like a drought for championship-thirsty organizations.

So, contenders will have to turn their attention toward the trade market to try to improve their teams for the upcoming season. And as those teams engage in bidding wars with sellers, this winter could have more of a trade deadline-like feel to it.

This year’s class features Toronto Blue Jays first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, but he is likely an American League-only player. His teammate for the last eight seasons, right fielder Jose Bautista, offers similar power at the plate but, at 36 years old, is less of a long-term solution. Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner rounds out a paltry list of impact position players, and there isn’t a single front-line starting pitcher available.

Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Jeremy Hellickson is the best among them but only had a 3.71 ERA in 32 starts with the club last season. His 3.98 FIP, per Baseball-Reference.com, however, suggests he was worse than traditional metrics might otherwise indicate.

Back-end relief is the position that boasts the most talent. Chicago Cubs left-hander Aroldis Chapman, the Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen and the Washington Nationals’ Mark Melancon are the elite closers available for hire.

But one bullpen signing isn’t usually the answer for teams eyeing the World Series.

The good news for those squads: The dearth of free agents might motivate rebuilding teams to be more active in trading MLB talent this winter.

Teams like the Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers and Milwaukee Brewers are undergoing some form of a remodel and have players on their rosters who could impact a division race.

The lack of free agents could also prompt teams to overpay for stars like White Sox lefty Chris Sale, Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun, Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera or Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander.

The New York Yankees (No. 2), Houston Astros (No. 3), Dodgers (No. 5), Nationals (No. 6) and Boston Red Sox (No. 7) are 2017 contenders with top-10 farm systems, according to MLB.com’s midseason rankings.

Each of those teams made a playoff appearance in at least one of the last two seasons, and the Dodgers, Nationals and Red Sox were all division winners in 2016.

Add in the World Series champion Chicago Cubs and AL West champion Texas Rangers, who have promising prospects they could deal, and most of the teams primed to contend have the kind of building blocks sellers routinely look for.

So, a bidding war—or two or three—could ensue among these contenders as they seek under-contract stars.

That label applies to Braun, Cabrera, Verlander and particularly Sale, who is signed to a team-friendly deal through 2019. They would each command a huge haul of prospects that could alter the future of their respective franchises.

That could cause a frenzy.

The more interest sellers hear from buyers, the longer they might drag out trade talks, trying to induce teams into bidding wars. That kind of drama is usually reserved for the July trading period.

But with so few impact free agents available, teams have nowhere to turn but to one another.

That could spur the most head-spinning offseason baseball has seen in some time.

    

Seth Gruen is a national baseball columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @SethGruen.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Takeaways from the 2016 BBWAA MLB Award Finalists

The 2016 MLB season may be over, but it has left us plenty to debate.

As teams turn toward free agency and 2017, the release of the Baseball Writers Association of America’s award nominees has given everyone reason to continue to dissect 2016.

There are some obvious winners and other awards that appear more competitive. There were snubs, too, of course.

But nonetheless, there was plenty to take away.

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Top Prospects Who Showed MLB Superstar Potential in 2016 AFL Fall Stars Game

Only the Chicago Cubs deserve to look back onto the 2016 Major League Baseball season. For every other organization, it is now time to look forward.

That made the timing of Saturday’s Fall Stars Game, the showcase of the Arizona Fall League’s best players, perfect.

And no, the Cubs’ Kyle Schwarber did not play in the game, though he played two Arizona Fall League games in order to get ready for the World Series.

But a host of top prospects did play and shine in the game, giving reason for a handful of organizations to be excited about the future. Who among them stood out the most?

 

Note: All prospect rankings are courtesy of MLB.com.

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Cubs vs. Indians: Keys for Each Team to Win World Series Game 7

Game 7. In combination, those two words stand as the greatest in the lexicon of sport. So they’re worth repeating: Game 7.

That’s what the 2016 MLB season will come down to: one final game.

Every pitch will be scrutinized. Every ground ball will mean something. Every hit will be followed by unparalleled emotion.

If you’re a baseball fan, you couldn’t ask for more. Unless you’re a fan who lives in Cleveland or Chicago. Then you could ask for a World Series title, which either the Indians or Cubs will walk away with Wednesday night.

But to win the most important game in the histories of each of these long-suffering organizations, both teams will need to hit on the following keys. 

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Cubs vs. Indians: Keys for Each Team to Win World Series Game 6

The Chicago Cubs did their part to make this World Series look a lot more interesting.

By winning Game 5 at Wrigley Field, Chicago sent the series back to Cleveland for a pivotal Game 6. The Cleveland Indians lead the series 3-2.

It’s a series that has been largely defined by pitching, as both teams have played erratic offense at best. So many of the keys to Tuesday’s game lie at the plate.

But that’s not all that will determine whether or not this series goes a full seven games.

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World Series AL Swing Puts Kyle Schwarber Back in Play as Cubs’ Offensive Spark

It’s rare for the National League team in a World Series to be disadvantaged in the games it plays at home.

The theory, after all, is that an American League team, which uses a designated hitter throughout most of the year, is forced to sit one of its regulars. But in the case of Kyle Schwarber’s miraculous return to the Chicago Cubs lineup during the World Serieshe tore his ACL and LCL on April 7 and was ruled out for the seasonhis team found itself in that AL-like conundrum.

Though Schwarber has been cleared to hit, doctors prohibited him from playing in the field. So, the left-handed slugger was relegated to duties as a pinch hitter in Games 3, 4 and 5, forced to watch his team struggle offensively at Wrigley Field.

But thanks to the Cubs’ Game 5 win Sunday night, the series heads back to AL champion Cleveland for the final two games, giving Schwarber the opportunity ignite Chicago’s offense.

Over those three home games, Schwarber played spectator while his team scored only four runs. Manager Joe Maddon tried every which way to spark the offense.

But aside from Anthony Rizzo—center fielder Dexter Fowler and outfielder Ben Zobrist are switch-hitters—Maddon couldn’t find capable left-handed hitting, which is of utmost importance against the right-handed-dominant Cleveland Indians pitching staff. Reliever Andrew Miller is the only southpaw among the Indians’ key pitchers.

It was as though Maddon walked into his kitchen intent on making a peanut butter and jelly sandwich only to find he was out of jelly.

Except there’s no running to the store in the World Series. The roster is set.

Left-handed-hitting outfielder Chris Coghlan is hitless in three at-bats this series. Right fielder Jason Heyward, another lefty, has struggled all year (.230/.306/.325 this season). He has three hits in this series, two of them seeing-eye singles that wouldn’t even make the NL’s worst-hitting pitchers jealous.

Maddon had nowhere to turn, except to try to adeptly pinch hit with Schwarber when it appeared advantageous.

That’s like telling Picasso to paint with only two primary colors.

Schwarber is hitting .375/.500/.500 in the World Series, which makes him a superhero among Cubs fans given that he only had five MLB plate appearances prior to starting as the team’s designated hitter in Game 1.

But the superhuman nature of Schwarber’s comeback will be judged after the series is over. And in a loss, it may not matter anyway.

As it pertains to Tuesday’s Game 6, another series-clinching opportunity for the Indians, he has a chance to give his team a boost.

It should be noted that in 10 plate appearances during the World Series, Schwarber has struck out four times. It’s irrelevant, though.

With his power, Schwarber can change the game with one swing. So if he strikes out four times, it doesn’t matter as long as he gets that timely hit.

But it’s not just the AL format that benefits Schwarber and the Cubs in Game 6.

According to ESPN’s “MLB Park Factors,” a statistical measure that determines which stadiums are friendly to hitters, Cleveland’s Progressive Field ranks third in runs, fourth in hits and fifth in home runs.

Those are the three most relevant categories for a hitter like Schwarber.

Furthermore, it’s 325 feet to right field in that stadium. By comparison, Wrigley Field is 353 feet to right field. Though the distance to Progressive Field’s left field is also 325 feet, there is a 19-foot-high wall. That makes it more difficult for right-handed hitters to homer.

For lefties, though, the right field fence is only nine feet high.

According to FanGraphs, Schwarber pulled the ball 46.8 percent of the time in 2015, which makes him, along with Rizzo, the likeliest on the Cubs roster to homer Tuesday and, if the Cubs should win, in Wednesday’s decisive Game 7.

With Schwarber in the lineup at Progressive Field, we should see the best of Chicago’s lineup.

Sure, the Indians also had to maneuver Wrigley Field’s NL rules. But it seemed through the last three games that Chicago’s offense was hurt more by them, as Cleveland scored 10 runs over that span.

The Cubs and their tortured fanbase are now embracing the most unpredictable of circumstances. Since 1945, fans have waited for a World Series to return to Chicago’s North Side.

Fans needed to write four-figure checks to get into the ballpark for one of the three games. Others gathered en masse outside Wrigley Field and packed the surrounding bars.

But now that the games are over and the World Series is leaving Wrigley for the 2016 season, those rooting for the Cubs to win this year might want to collectively wish the ballpark good riddance.

Because their home field didn’t turn out to be such an advantage.

   

Seth Gruen is a national baseball columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @SethGruen.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Indians vs. Cubs: Keys for Each Team to Win World Series Game 3

Though the World Series is knotted at one game apiece, the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians didn’t play either game close.

Game 1 went to the Indians by a score of 6-0, while the Cubs took Game 2 5-1.

Regardless, both games underscored the ways each team could win the requisite three games moving forward and netted us some keys for Friday night’s Game 3.

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Is Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen This Winter’s Top Closer Available?

There’s a growing conundrum plaguing the minds of baseball’s best executives. To a man, each is searching for the sport’s most elusive prize: a shutdown bullpen.

See, hundreds of pitchers are drafted and signed by all 30 organizations every year. But none enters the sport’s professional ranks wanting to pitch in relief. Each has intentions on being a starter, as is evident by the oft-used phrase “he was sent to the bullpen,” which has an inherently negative connotation.

Baseball’s best all-time reliever, Mariano Rivera, began his MLB career as a starter. Such was the case for prized closers Kenley Jansen of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Aroldis Chapman of the NL champion Chicago Cubs, as both dabbled with starting staffs in the minor leagues.

The difficulty in evaluating which young pitcher may be an effective reliever is difficult because nearly every player is initially being judged as a starter. So when players like Jansen, a right-hander, and Chapman, a lefty, have perfected the art of late-inning relief, they become invaluable to teams.

And both will command huge contracts when they enter free agency this winter. Given the lack of starting pitching available in the upcoming free-agent class, those teams looking to bolster their pitching staffs will have to do so by improving the back end.

It’s Jansen, though, that should be given the most consideration by those teams.

The two pitchers are this close—Chapman would be the best of consolation prizes. Jansen’s 47 saves, though, were more than Chapman’s 36. The former did blow six saves to the southpaw’s three, but Jansen was put into 14 more save situations than Chapman.

Chapman’s measurables are eye-popping. His fastball tops 100 miles per hour as frequently as a stock car, while Jansen’s hovers in the mid-90s. But as one MLB executive talked about the evaluation of pitchers—both starters and relievers—earlier this season, he said it’s important to try to find people who can get outs.

In that case, Jansen wins in a photo finish.

Chapman had a WHIP of 0.862 this season, and Jansen’s was 0.670. Jansen’s 3.2 WAR led all relievers this season and was 0.5 better than Chapman, according to FanGraphs.

Sure, the difference is minuscule, but teams won’t look to sign both. As they decide which player to make the priority, it’s these kind of finite details executives will work through.

It’s like being the judge of the Miss America pageant. You’re deciding between All-Star-caliber players. They’re two of the top five relievers in the game.

But the value of a reliever is never greater than in the playoffs, where Jansen provides a team with more versatility.

That was evident by the flurry of deadline deals for relievers, including one that sent Chapman to the Cubs and ALCS MVP Andrew Miller to the Cleveland Indians.

The value of a shutdown inning in a five- or seven-game series is far greater than in a regular season when a team needs 90-plus wins to earn a division title. A reliever would never win the MVP award, but Miller was able to win the ALCS MVP because he was called upon to pitch in the series’ critical moments.

A reliever can separate himself as a postseason stalwart with the ability to pitch in different situations, or pitch longer than he may have otherwise been used to in the regular season.

Both Chapman and Jansen were, generally, ninth-inning players this year.

But Jansen proved he has the ability to earn six-out saves and pitch in non-save situations. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts used Jansen during critical middle-inning situations and for six-out saves.

In the NLCS, Chapman pitched in four games and Jansen appeared in three. But Jansen threw 6.1 innings and didn’t allow an earned run. Chapman pitched 4.2 innings and gave up two earned runs.

Twice in the series Chapman looked uncomfortable throwing in the eighth inning.

He was inserted into the eighth frame of Game 1 with no outs and the bases loaded. Manager Joe Maddon thought Chapman was the Cubs’ best chance at getting out of the jam and into the ninth inning with the lead.

But after striking out the first two batters, Chapman gave up a two-run single, which tied the game at three. The two runs Chapman gave up came in a non-save situation in a Game 5 win.

Chapman only has one postseason outing in which he pitched more than an inning. That came in Saturday’s Game 6 win when he recorded five outs in a non-save situation.

Jansen did it three times this year, including throwing 2.1 innings in Game 5 of the NLDS and three on Saturday where he faced the minimum nine batters.

That kind of versatility is important because, in theory, a team’s worst pitchers are its middle relievers. In an ideal scenario, a starting pitcher would hand the ball to the team’s closer.

Jansen’s ability to pitch longer outings bridges that gap, whereas a team on which Chapman plays is more likely to have to rely on other relievers to get him the ball.

That’s among the reasons Rivera was so good: In 96 postseason appearances, he pitched 141 innings.

Of course, any team would love to have Chapman. He can throw harder than anyone who has ever stepped onto the rubber. But remember: It’s about getting outs.

He just gets fewer than Jansen, which means that Jansen answers more of the questions that surround baseball’s elusive prize.

               

Seth Gruen is a national baseball columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @SethGruen.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Biggest Takeaways from MLB’s 2016 ALCS, NLCS Action

The 2016 baseball season is down to two organizations, and it just so happens they’re the sport’s most tortured.

The Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs will take baseball’s two longest championship droughts into Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday.

But after winning the American League Championship Series and National League Championship Series respectively, each seemed to craft a blueprint for how to get to October’s Fall Classic.

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Cabrera, Verlander Add New Headliners to MLB Rumor Mill as Tigers Eye Rebuild

Don’t be fooled by the optics of the Detroit Tigers’ 2016 campaign, one that saw the organization miss the playoffs by a mere 2.5 games.

They’re stuck in one of the worse places in today’s win-or-rebuild world of baseball.

The Tigers own MLB’s fourth-most expensive roster, but it’s one that isn’t talented enough to be considered a serious World Series contender. While every team seems to be trying to get younger, Detroit’s key players are aging.

So it came as no surprise Tuesday when general manager Al Avila revealed the organization will pivot.

Avila told Jason Beck of MLB.com:

We have to be open-minded to anything. That doesn’t mean that we’re dangling Player A out there and seeing what happens, but it does mean that in our conversations with other clubs, we will be open-minded, and if somebody has interest in a certain player, we’ll take a look at it. If it makes sense for the Detroit Tigers present and future, then we certainly will consider things that we feel will make us better.

Read: Starting pitcher Justin Verlander, first baseman Miguel Cabrera and other Detroit veterans could be traded this offseason.

 

What was most suggestive of the fact that two Tigers cornerstones and a slew of other high-priced players could move was that Avila said “this organization has been working way above its means as far as payroll for many, many years.”

ESPN.com’s Buster Olney confirmed the notion Saturday, writing: “But the message being received from the rest of the industry is a dramatic shift for one of baseball’s oldest franchises: They will listen to trade offers on everybody. Miguel Cabrera. Justin Verlander. Ian Kinsler. Anybody.”

Verlander and Cabrera, both 33, are two of four Detroit players above 30 years old who are making at least $18 million per year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

But they can also still make a major impact on contending rosters.

Given that baseball’s 2017 free-agent class is drier than August in Death Valley, this could be the ideal time to trade them, too.

First baseman Edwin Encarnacion and outfielders Jose Bautista, Ian Desmond and potentially Yoenis Cespedes are among the cream of this year’s free-agent class in terms of high-impact position players. The market for starting pitchers is without a front-line starter like last year’s class, which included David Price and Zack Greinke, their performances this season notwithstanding.

So teams may forgo spending money in free agency and instead try to add via the trade market.

While Verlander may not be the top-end ace he was earlier this decade, his 3.04 ERA still suggests he has top-of-the-rotation stuff and could make an impact on a playoff roster.

The Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox, who were swept out of the playoffs this year, saw the Cleveland Indians cruise to the World Series with outstanding starting pitching, which each of them lacked all season.

Both the Red Sox and Rangers are loaded with young talent, which they could send to the Tigers to bolster their respective rotations.

Cabrera still swings an All-Star bat—he hit .316/.393/.563 with 38 homers and 108 RBI—and could become the centerpiece of a World Series hopeful’s lineup.

And immediate thoughts gravitate to a particular AL playoff team that lost a prolific slugger to retirement. Ahem, the Red Sox and David Ortiz.

In fact, Cabrera has better offensive numbers than any potential free agent.

But it seems in their current spots on the Tigers’ hole-filled roster, Verlander and Cabrera are playing useless roles. They’re like unused chops at a high-end steakhouse, thrown away when the restaurant closes.

Detroit appears as if it’ll be closing for business every October.

Without giving them the opportunity to impact a postseason, Detroit is wasting what few prime years Verlander and Cabrera have remaining.

The Tigers seem pointed toward a rebuild. Or a retooling. Or a reworking. Or whichever way the organization wants to spin what is to come.

Regardless, this much is clear: Detroit may not contend for a title the next few seasons.

By then, Verlander and Cabrera will be in their twilight years. And though they still may be effective, the Tigers can’t bank on the duo’s impacting a long-term rebuild.

Simply, the dearth of high-impact free agents could create the highest possible demand for both players. It may be the perfect time to deal them, and it could net the Tigers the highest possible return in younger prospects.

And that is Avila’s stated goal: to get “younger and leaner.”

So as the general manager opens his mind to all possibilities, it might be time to open the phone lines, too. Because Detroit is certain to get calls on Verlander and Cabrera.

The demand for them may never be higher.

         

Seth Gruen is a national baseball columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @SethGruen.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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