At this point in the baseball calendar, when we near the annual non-waiver trade deadline, there’s always player movement.
While most executives expect to hear the applause of their respective fans when they add to a contending team, the Chicago Cubs executives knew their deal for closer Aroldis Chapman might not net that reaction.
The Cubs, of course, weren’t the only team trying to navigate this July’s trade market. Who were those others clubs?
Any list that ranks the top available players at the trade deadline must first be qualified by its criteria.
Simply being among the most talented players available won’t put a guy on the list. There are a few exceptions, though, where a player’s otherworldly talent is enough reason to rank among the 10 best available.
Still, in compiling the following list of players, not only were their 2016 seasons taken into account, but also the value and duration of their contracts. A player signed beyond 2016 has a higher value than a rental of equal talent preparing to hit free agency after this season.
If a player is one of the few available at his position, that also increases his value. Supply and demand applies to the trade market as much as our economy.
So who are the best available players as we approach the Aug. 1 trade deadline?
With more than two months of games left to be played, the playoff picture is far from decided.
But when the field is set for October’s MLB Playoffs, we may look back at the end of July as an ultimate determinant in which teams earned the right to vie for a World Series.
Among them quite possibly could be the news this week that Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw may need back surgery. There isn’t a pitcher in MLB who has had a better season and no arm more important to a team’s success.
Which teams got more positive news that could help alter various playoff races?
An underwhelming 2015 season left Texas Rangers star Ian Desmond in need of reinventing himself.
Like Apple on the brink of bankruptcy in the late 1990s or Taylor Swift transitioning from country singer to mainstream pop star, Desmond’s brand was due for a seismic change when he entered free agency this past offseason.
So the lifelong shortstop went into full marketing mode. In an interview with Bleacher Report Saturday, Desmond said his camp went to the Texas Rangers and told them he was capable of playing in the outfield. At the time, Desmond had played only 7.1 MLB innings in right field.
But the Rangers took a chance, believing in his athleticism. It paid off: Texas (55-41) sits atop the AL West, in large part due to a career year from Desmond.
Desmond has proved to be an elite outfielder. That, combined with his .319/.372/.535 line this season, has him poised to sign a megadeal when he re-enters free agency this coming offseason.
“That was kind of like the whole thing: I would be willing to move positions for a contending team or a team that I felt like had a shortstop that was better than me at short,” Desmond said of the position change. “So whatever I had to do to get to a contending team, I was going to do.”
Elvis Andrus was already firmly entrenched as Texas’ shortstop. So any hope Desmond had of latching onto the roster was at another position.
According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, he signed a one-year, $8 million deal that offered him a spot on a contending team and a mulligan at free agency. He could prove himself this season and, if all went well, earn the lucrative deal he had anticipated when he initially rejected the Nationals’ $107 million offer prior to the 2014 season, according to MLB.com.
But it would take a team that was willing to take a risk.
In manager Jeff Banister, Desmond found his perfect match. During Banister’s first year as an MLB manager in 2015, he showed a willingness to be creative. He started 6’5″, 235-pound power hitter Joey Gallo in center field for a game. This year, Banister has played Jurickson Profar, a middle-infield prospect, at first base in an effort to get him plate appearances. Profar had not played the position prior to this season.
The Texas manager’s outside-the-box thinking was exactly what Desmond needed when he was looking for a new home. However, Banister contends that his creativity had little to do with it, conceding that the team was fortunate to sign such a great athlete.
Banister relays a story from the opening week of spring training when he watched Desmond first take fly balls in the outfield. Desmond was shagging balls in left field but making plays in right-center. When Desmond showed that kind of range, Banister knew his athleticism would translate to the outfield.
“The guy’s a dynamic athlete,” Banister said. “So I knew from everything that I had seen, from all that I heard, that he had instincts for the game, feel for reading the bat. So once you could see the desire and the determination, I felt like it would be a good fit, a solid transition.”
But Desmond hasn’t just been a serviceable outfielder. Already this season, he has shown he can change the game defensively when playing on the grass.
According to FanGraphs, Desmond has an ultimate zone rating of 8.8, which ranks ninth among outfielders this season. Each player above him in that category is a career outfielder.
Such prowess in the outfield early in the season prompted Banister to move him to center field, one of the most important positions on the diamond, after Delino DeShields Jr., the team’s Opening Day starter, struggled.
Desmond has started 68 games in center.
That kind of flexibility defensively, combined with his infield experience, will make Desmond even more desirable to teams this offseason. The Chicago Cubs similarly employ Kris Bryant who can play all the outfield positions and third base.
A player who can play multiple positions in effect expands the roster. Desmond’s versatility allows those with only one comfortable position to be worked into the lineup should their bat create a favorable matchup against a given starting pitcher.
In the NL, with the double-switch in play, Desmond offers even more value defensively.
“We’ve always liked him,” Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said. “Our scouts—I’ve got to give them a lot of credit—they’ve always identified him as a guy who would be a real natural in the outfield. I got to give him a ton of credit.
“We can’t imagine where we’d be without him. He’s been a huge part of this team.”
Of course, he’s made an impact at the plate, too.
Desmond wouldn’t have earned a spot on this year’s American League All-Star team without stellar offensive numbers. Through the completion of Thursday’s games, Desmond led Texas in batting average, on-base percentage, RBI (58) and doubles. His .535 slugging percentage ranked first on the team among regular starters, while his 18 homers also ranked first.
It’s the best he has played since the 2013 season, when he hit .280/.331/.453. Desmond rejected Washington’s nine-figure offer prior to spring training the following season.
Two subpar seasons ensued. But in his comeback campaign this year, Desmond has seen a marked improvement in how hard he is hitting the ball.
According to FanGraphs, 21.6 percent of the balls he has hit this season were line drives—his highest total since 2013. Of the fly balls he has hit, 23.1 percent were home runs, which is a career best.
“It’s all about feel, and for the last couple years I’ve been looking for that feel, and I got it back and it feels really good,” Desmond said.
“It’s just a product of being in the right position and that matched with a little bit of pitch sequence that I’m seeing now in this league, and over here they’re starting to shift me a little bit more. So, it’s opened up some more holes where balls I would have hit before would have been caught.”
That approach is just one example of an advanced understanding of the game, which, along with his newfound versatility and elite hitting, has made him one of the stars of the upcoming free-agent class.
Certainly, it has affirmed his decision to walk away from the deal the Nationals offered in the spring of 2014.
And as he enters free agency this winter, there will be plenty of stats to throw around from this season that validate his asking for a more lucrative deal. Analytics will prove his value to any team.
But four words best describe Desmond’s 2016 campaign: I told you so.
Seth Gruen is a national baseball columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @SethGruen.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
The trade market opened in earnest Thursday when the Boston Red Sox acquired left-handed starter Drew Pomeranz.
It marked the beginning of what should be a competitive July trade season with several teams remaining in the playoff hunt.
While the Pomeranz trade affects the American League East race, this week featured a slew of storylines that could impact the postseason hopes of several organizations.
Want a look into how this week may have shaped October baseball?
In an era in which teams like the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros have seen an organizational renaissance after overhauling their minor league systems, the term “rebuild” is thrown around as frequently as pie dough in a pizza kitchen.
David Stearns realizes as much, and in an interview with Bleacher Report, he tried to explain the nuances of how he is approaching it as the general manager of the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Brewers made Stearns Major League Baseball’s youngest GM when they hired him at 30 years old last season. Both Theo Epstein and Jon Daniels were hired by the Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers, respectively, at 28 to lead those baseball operations departments.
Stearns addressed his philosophy, team draft strategy and the future of left fielder Ryan Braun and catcher Jonathan Lucroy, two highly sought-after veterans, as we approach the trade deadline.
Bleacher Report: Every “rebuild” has its nuances. What’s your philosophy as it pertains to turning this team into a contender?
David Stearns: We’ve been pretty consistent in what our overarching strategy is, and our overarching strategy is to acquire, develop and retain the best young talent we possibly can, and that is throughout the organization. Frankly, that’s not a cycle here that’s ever going to end.
We recognize that for us to remain consistently competitive—whether that’s now or in the future—our overarching organizational philosophy is always going to be to acquire, develop and retain the best talent that we can. At this stage of where we are, we’re doing our best to accelerate that process.
There are obviously a couple of different avenues by which you can acquire young talent: The draft is one of them, and obviously the trade market is another one. And so at this point, we think it’s in our best interest to explore all those avenues.
B/R: Do you feel like you have to decide from one season to another whether you are going to try to be competitive?
DS: I don’t think you ever really make that determination. I think you have a consistent philosophical strategy and you implement that strategy, and if the strategy is sound and it’s executed well, the amount of talent needed to compete will gather at the major league level.
Putting a time frame on that I don’t think is particularly wise because we’re not that smart. We don’t know exactly when that critical mass of talent is going to surface. But I don’t know that you ever want to get into a situation where you’re categorically saying, “Yes, we’re in. No, we’re not in.”
B/R: You’ve got some young talent playing well at the MLB level this season. Do you see things at least percolating?
DS: The more young talent that we have continuing to develop and take steps forward, the faster we’re going to be able to get to where we want to go. And so we’ve been pleased so far this year that we’ve had a number of young players take that step forward this year in their development.
We’ve been able to provide a number of our young players consistent playing time, and often that’s what these guys need to take that step. That’s certainly a part of it, and when you begin to see those pieces come together throughout your minor league system and at the major league level, it certainly leads to a degree of hope and optimism.
B/R: A bullpen seems like the most elusive thing in baseball. You draft a pitcher and their intentions are to come here and start. How do you think about a bullpen in building your organization?
DS: I think if you look at the history of very successful bullpens, they all seem to be constructed in a variety of different ways, and so trying to find concrete, discernible patterns and “this is the proper way to construct a bullpen” is probably not going to be a particularly fruitful endeavor.
So what we are looking to do from just an organizational standpoint is acquire pitchers who get outs, and if we acquire enough pitchers that get outs, we’re going to be able to get outs throughout all nine innings of a game. Clearly the majority of those, we hope, are going to come from the starting pitcher who goes late into games, and then you can complement that with a strong back end of the pen.
But we recognize where the industry is headed, and the industry is headed toward more specialization, where talented bullpens are able to pick up the last 12 to 15 outs in a game—and certainly that’s one way you can construct a roster.
B/R: You laugh. Is that because it’s the topic du jour?
DS: I think it’s so elusive. It’s something that front offices, far long before I ever got into baseball, were trying to figure out, and I think each team has a slightly different philosophy of how to go about it. Clearly there are some organizations over the last couple of years that have put together historically dominant bullpens, and it’s led to a pretty good degree of success.
B/R: How much do you pay attention to what other sellers are doing in the trade market? We haven’t really seen it heat up yet. Does that affect when you act?
DS: I don’t know that this year is necessarily any different pace-wise than other years. It generally doesn’t pick up too consistently until you get into July, and then historically, the majority of action is taken post-All-Star break.
My impression is that there’s plenty of conversation going on. There are a lot of informational calls. At this stage, everyone is trying to understand where team needs are and how we might fit with other clubs. It could really pick up at any time. It’s pretty tough to predict.
B/R: It’s sort of a tradition not to do business with anybody in your division. With the importance and emphasis on acquiring young talent, is there any shift in that philosophy?
DS: I think you have to be open to dealing with all 29 other clubs. We made a deal with Pittsburgh in the offseason. We’ve had conversations with every club in our division. So we have to be open to it. We’d be foolish not to engage those clubs.
B/R: Lucroy and Braun are going to be sought after. The notion of whether or not you’re “shopping” somebody, is that overblown? I assume you’re getting phone calls.
DS: Generally, when you’re in a position that we’re in where we have some players, some veteran-type players, who have performed very well throughout the first half of the year—we’re a team that’s under .500 right now in a really good division—whenever those types of situations occur, you get calls about those players from teams that are higher up in the standings.
Certainly we’re no different, and we’re getting those calls. So along with that comes a whole lot of media speculation and reports of conversation and interest, and that comes with the territory. So we know that’s going to happen. I think both Braun and Luc know that’s going to happen and have handled it very well, and they understand the business aspect of this industry.
They understand from my perspective it’s my responsibility and obligation to see what is out there for any player on our roster, and so when another general manager calls and expresses interest, it would be foolish for me not to explore what we could potentially get back.
B/R: If you decide a guy isn’t part of your future, or you are too far away from contending, how do you weigh whether to deal a guy in July or wait until the winter?
DS: I think you gauge what the return is that you could generate at any particular time, and certainly there is some benefit to doing deals now because there is more urgency on the part of other clubs. There’s also benefit to doing deals in the offseason, because, potentially, there are more suitors for a particular type of player as teams are formulating their entire roster.
So I think you set a return value on a particular player, and if that return value is met, you have to be comfortable making a move.
B/R: Do you think for you guys, or any team in your position, that the second wild card has generated more competition in a buyer’s market?
DS: So I like the second wild card for a variety of different reasons. I think it probably does lead to a little bit more action this time of year. It keeps more teams in the hunt, and it creates excitement down the stretch.
B/R: During the draft, did you go best on board?
DS: Our philosophy is you take the best player available. Toward the end of the draft, you may have to deviate from that slightly as you need to fill out your lower-level rosters from a positional-need standpoint, but our goal for all our picks is always to take the best player available.
B/R: How do you evaluate a college or high school player metrically?
DS: Whenever you’re evaluating players who are not facing a consistent level of competition in consistent environments, it becomes very challenging, and the error bars on whatever metric you’re using are going to be much wider, and we recognize that.
And it’s something that the entire industry deals with as we try to evaluate amateur players across the spectrum on more objective criteria, and so the club that can shrink those error bars as much as possible is probably going to have an advantage. We’re working hard at doing that, and I’m sure a number of other clubs are as well.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
The two teams that played in last year’s World Series lost key pitchers this week. New York Mets starter Matt Harvey was lost for the year, while Kansas City Royals closer Wade Davis landed on the 15-day disabled list.
Both players were major contributors to their respective teams.
The better news came from Davis who is eyeing a return on July 16 and will skip the All-Star festivities to focus on his health.
For other teams, though, MLB’s Week 14 had a positive undertone. Which teams might those be?
All of a sudden, Cleveland has turned into the center of the sports universe.
Just weeks removed from the Cavaliers winning the 2015-16 NBA championship, the Indians are still riding a 14-game winning streak. And entering play Saturday with an AL Central-leading record of 49-30, you could argue they are World Series contenders.
Heck, Cleveland could play .500 baseball the rest of the way and probably would still make the playoffs. So it’s more than safe to pencil them into the October picture.
It’s probably reasonable to do it in erasable pen.
Other cities too saw their playoff hopes affected. Which cities might those be?
This season, there’s a euphoria that has consumed Chicago Cubs fans unlike anything the city’s North Side has seen for, say, a little over 100 years.
The lovable losers finally have their World Series contender. Heck, let’s just come right out and say it: This team is the favorite to win it all. In case you haven’t heard, there’s a summer-long party raging at Wrigley Field. The team hasn’t won anything yet except a whole bunch of regular-season games. But can you blame its fans for enjoying the ride?
As lifelong Cubs fans party like it’s 1908, one of the team’s newcomers has to be quietly thanking baseball’s higher power (his name in Chicago is team president of baseball operations Theo Epstein) more than anyone for the Cubs’ incredible success.
Cubs right fielder Jason Heyward signed an eight-year, $184 million contract this offseason, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. In his first year with the Cubs, Heyward has thus far posted an awful slash line of .235/.326/.325.
It’s inarguable that Heyward has been inept offensively. For those who want to try, the sky is blue and water is wet, in case that isn’t apparent either.
Chicago’s success this season has camouflaged Heyward’s failures.
The right fielder’s struggles haven’t been as prominent because the Cubs have been so good. Any discussion about a player’s success or failure is predicated on the idea that fans want the team to win.
The Cubs have done so this season, holding MLB’s best record at 51-27. Heyward playing better wouldn’t do much for the Cubs as far as the standings are concerned. And in the regular season, there’s no higher to go than baseball’s best record.
But the condensed nature of the playoffs—short series relative to a 162-game schedule—magnify a player’s struggles or successes. Come October, Heyward’s reeling bat in the No. 2 spot in the lineup could negatively impact a series for the Cubs.
And beyond this season, if he continues to struggle offensively, his contract could become an albatross.
Yes, Heyward has been the defensive stalwart the Cubs expected when they signed him to a long-term deal. He is third amongst outfielders with an ultimate zone rating of 10.3 and fourth with a defensive WAR of 7.6, according to FanGraphs.
But his total WAR, the ultimate calculation of a player’s value, is only 1.1 (per FanGraphs)—an extremely low number for someone making Heyward money. And he wouldn’t have gotten such a lucrative contract had he not hit .293/.359/.439 with the St. Louis Cardinals last season.
The fact is that Heyward may be known best for his defense. But his contract suggests an expectation that he help the team at the plate as well. He does, after all, hit second for the Cubs.
It’s not just the totality of his struggles, either.
Heyward seems to come up short in the biggest moments of a game. With runners on base, he is only hitting .205 and has just six extra-base hits on the year in those situations.
Thought by everyone in baseball to be the prize of last winter’s free-agent class of position players, Heyward has more strikeouts (27) than hits (25) with runners on base. And when runners are in scoring position, he is hitting only .227/.311/.318.
Come playoff time, starting rotations shrink. A team’s best pitchers play more. And opportunities to score runs are fewer. They can’t be squandered.
So Heyward’s struggles in those situations will only come into focus more.
Don’t expect his offensive woes to keep him out of the lineup. His defensive value will still make him better than any alternative on the Cubs bench when the playoffs come around. Runs saved defensively count just the same as runs generated on offense.
But Heyward could continue to play himself into a situation where Cubs manager Joe Maddon may have to consider a pinch hitter when the team finds itself down late in playoff games.
In fairness, Heyward’s June has been better than the first two months of the season. He is hitting .257/.336/.386. But those numbers are still below his career averages of .265/.351/.422.
He still could easily climb out of this season-long slump.
It’s a credit to Heyward that he hasn’t taken his offensive struggles into the outfield. His accomplishments as an outfielder certainly impacted the high demand for his services this offseason.
Analytics quantify a player’s defensive value more than ever. Heyward is a beneficiary.
But the size of his contract suggests that he cannot be a one-way player. Hitting in an important spot in the lineup, ahead of sluggers Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, it’s important Heyward gets on base.
He hasn’t done so enough this season.
As the Cubs continue to win, destined for October, Heyward’s struggles won’t be reflected in the standings. Discussion about them won’t even matter.
Come the playoffs, though, there are fewer games and fewer at-bats. Each play means exponentially more.
And if he continues to swing the bat poorly, Heyward could end up the party pooper on Chicago’s North Side.
Seth Gruen is a national baseball columnist for Bleacher Report. Talk baseball with Seth by following him on Twitter @SethGruen.
All stats are accurate through the completion of Thursday’s games.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Breaking news: The Chicago Cubs have lost four straight for the first time this season.
Well, OK, maybe this isn’t hard breaking news. But given the fanfare associated with this team, one would think it was infallible.
A losing streak of any kind on Chicago’s North Side has shock value and makes anything in baseball seem possible.
Heck (spoiler alert), maybe MLB would even bring a team to Las Vegas.
What else looked possible, impossible or fell somewhere in between during MLB’s Week 12?