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Grading the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Offseason Post-Winter Meetings

A+

No, seriously. A+. Catcher has been upgraded, shortstop has been upgraded, second base has been upgraded, depth has been added, and essentially all it cost was Matt Kemp and a left-handed pitching prospect named Tom Windle.

I will break down each move individually below, but the main takeaway for Dodger fans should be relief. The joy of having a competent front office is not a feeling Dodger fans have had much recent experience with. But Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi proved their worth in a crazy 12-hour period.

A quick recap:

IN: SS Jimmy Rollins, 2B Howie Kendrick, C Yasmani Grandal, RHP Brandon McCarthy, RHP Joe Wieland, RHP Chris Hatcher, assorted minor leaguers

OUT: 2B Dee Gordon, RF Matt Kemp, RHP Dan Haren, SS Miguel Rojas, LHP Tom Windle, C Tim Federowicz

Got all that? Great, because it gets more confusing. The Phillies trade and the Padres trade are interconnected; according to CSNPhilly.com, the players going to Philadelphia for Rollins are reportedly minor leaguers Tom Windle and Zach Eflin. While that seems simple, Eflin is coming from San Diego in the Kemp trade—which has not actually been finalized yet because physicals are still pending. And each of Kemp (shoulder and hamstring), Wieland (elbow) and Grandal (knee) has significant injury concerns, so the physicals are not a formality.

The Marlin and Angel deals are finalized, so at least there’s no mystery. Additionally, the Brandon McCarthy deal appears to be done as well, according to ESPN Los Angeles’ Mark Saxon.

Notes: The following recaps will assume all mentioned trades will be successfully completed. All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

 

Marlins

This trade is the simplest. Per ESPN, the Dodgers traded Dee Gordon, Dan Haren and Miguel Rojas and received LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Chris Hatcher, IF Enrique Hernandez and C Austin Barnes.

Hatcher has thrown 89.2 career innings in the major leagues, and he has seen mixed success. His 4.82 ERA is uninspiring, but his 3.56 FIP and 3.51 xFIP tell us that he is better than that number. He could very well turn into a competent part of the bullpen.

Barnes and Hernandez are minor leaguers. They are quality organizational depth, and acquiring such players is a skill that former general manager Ned Colletti appeared to lack.

Heaney was subsequently flipped to the Angels.

In terms of the players the Dodgers gave up, Gordon is the only potential loss. Rojas was a competent defense-first backup, but he is replaceable. In fact, Erisbel Arruebarrena is still on the roster, and he can be what Rojas was. Haren was not good last year: He posted a 4.02 ERA despite getting help from a .276 BABIP.

Gordon is the question mark. A more detailed analysis can be found here, but essentially Gordon has half a season of good performance and about 250 games of below-average performance. It’s entirely within the realm of possibility that his first half of 2014 was his real performance and he simply suffered through a slump in August and September. I, however, would bet on his overall career numbers being more indicative of the future than a three-month hot streak.

Angels

The Dodgers traded Andrew Heaney to the Angels for Howie Kendrick, per Mark Saxon of ESPN. It is unclear whether or not this was a three-team trade or if the Dodgers had the option to keep Heaney, but regardless, they acquired a significant upgrade at second base.

Howie Kendrick is a legitimately good hitter. Since getting a full-time job in 2009, he has had just one below-average offensive year (a 98 wRC+ in 2010). Additionally, 2010 was also his only negative defensive year. That type of production from a middle-infield spot is extremely valuable.

 

Phillies

This tweet from Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly (h/t Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal) started the 12-hour saga, and it signaled the arrival of the Dodgers’ 2015 shortstop. Rollins is not the MVP candidate he was several years ago, but he is still a valuable shortstop. His 103 wRC+ from 2011, 101 from 2012, and and 102 from 2014 demonstrate that he can still hit, and he actually continues to post positive defensive numbers as well.

By far the most amazing part of this trade is that the Dodgers essentially gave up nothing. Zach Eflin was not a member of the Dodger organization before yesterday, and Tom Windle is a lefty from High-A who may end up in the bullpen.

Padres

Matt Kemp being traded, as reported by ESPN, is the most controversial deal the Dodgers made yesterday. He is a fan favorite and also the most talented of the potential trade options (Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford), but that talent meant that he was most likely to bring back a significant return. Of course, he is also not a guarantee to continue to perform.

The optimism surrounding him is related to his second half. After the All-Star break last season, Kemp posted a 170 wRC+, which would have been the best mark in the league if he had continued it for the whole year. The problem, however, is that there’s no guarantee that Kemp would be that good in the future. In fact, he’d probably be closer to his career mark of 128.

Additionally, though, none of this analysis factors in age, defense or contract. Kemp is already 30 years old and thus past his peak, so his performance is likely to decline as he gets older. His defense is bad: He has been a positive defender just once in his career (2009), and the last two years are two of his worst years. Plus, as he moves to right field, he will lose any value he gained simply from being in center field.

Finally, his contract status cannot be ignored. He was owed over $100 million over the next five years, so even with the $32 million the Dodgers are sending to San Diego, the Dodgers make immense savings (about $70 million).

The players the Dodgers are receiving are not scrubs, either. Wieland does not have much of a major league track record, but he has a career 3.27 minor league ERA.

Grandal, though, is the centerpiece. The switch-hitting catcher will likely split time with AJ Ellis, but he is probably a better player. He has put up a wRC+ over 100 (league average) each season, and his career mark is 119. This compares favorably to AJ Ellis’ mark of 98. His defense is also an improvement, though. It surely has not escaped this front office’s attention that Ellis ranked 99th out of 100 eligible catchers in pitch framing last year, while Grandal ranked 13th.

 

Brandon McCarthy

A free agent, McCarthy signed a four-year, $48 million contract, per Mark Saxon of ESPN. He has actually been quite good over the course of his career—as long as he can stay healthy, that is. He has not posted a FIP over 4.00 since 2009, and he has posted the best strikeout-to-walk ratios of his career over those same last four years. The problem, though, is that 2014 was the only year of his career that he made more than 25 starts.

McCarthy represents a significant upgrade over Dan Haren, whom he is likely replacing. He is also a health risk, but when he’s on the mound, he’s a competent back-of-the-rotation starter.

Thus, overall, the Dodgers’ winter meetings cannot be deemed anything but a massive success. They upgraded at three different positions and added some minor league depth while shedding roughly $70 million of payroll obligations for the next five years.

 

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Final Report Card Grades for the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Prospects at the AFL

When I discussed the players the Los Angeles Dodgers had sent to the Arizona Fall League, I mentioned that many of the top players were position players. The pattern held; over the course of the month, the hitters far outperformed the pitchers. This is not surprising given the talent disparity, but it’s noteworthy.

Note: All statistics courtesy of MLB.com.

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Big Moves the Los Angeles Dodgers Could Actually Pull off This Offseason

For a team with $182.5 million already committed to the 2015 roster, the Los Angeles Dodgers actually have a surprising amount of flexibility. They have a couple veteran outfielders they need to get rid of, a massive budget and a farm system that is finally bearing fruit.

Whether or not the new front office will want to make a massive deal is up in the air, but it certainly has the resources to do so.

Andre Ethier and/or Carl Crawford are likely to be dealt relatively soon. If that happens, a couple 25-man roster spots will be open. Once the roster spots are available, the Dodgers will be able to slot expensive players in because of their budget: Even though it is currently in the $180 million range, it was over $200 million this past season. So there is clearly room to add.

And the farm system currently has more high-end talent than it has had for several years, including several players talented enough to headline major deals.

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The 5 Most Important Prospects for the Dodgers to Hold on to This Winter

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a new front office, and new president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is undoubtedly familiar with the Dodgers farm system. He will be properly unwilling to trade the elite prospects.

In fact, team president Stan Kasten clearly has an appreciation for the talent in his organization; a report from Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times stated that “Colletti was prevented by ownership from making any midseason adjustments to the bullpen, people familiar with the situation said. Top prospects Corey Seager, Julio Urias and Joc Pederson were labeled as untouchable by…Kasten.”

With all of that being said, though, the Dodgers will clearly attempt to make their roster better, and the possibility exists that they will include a minor leaguer to sweeten a deal. These are the five players the Dodgers should hold on to, if at all possible.

 

Note: All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

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Los Angeles Dodgers’ 2014 All-Prospect Team

With the minor league season over and several youngsters currently up in Los Angeles with the Dodgers, a few of the standouts from the minor league season are familiar to Dodger fans. However, not all of them are, and here is an opportunity to recognize a more diverse list of players.

As an organization, the Dodgers are pitching-heavy. Fourteen of the team’s top 20 prospects are pitchers, so it’s a bit tougher to pick position players to fill every spot. When the positions that are lighter in depth come up, that will be noted.

This is not simply a list of the players at each position who had the best year. A 29-year-old is not a prospect, so someone tearing up Double-A or Triple-A but who will not make a long-term contribution for the Dodgers is not eligible. Instead, these players are the combination of youth and talent that is most likely to impact the big league team.

 

Note: All statistics courtesy of MiLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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Los Angeles Dodgers: An Early Free Agency and Offseason Primer

Hanley Ramirez headlines the Los Angeles Dodgers’ approach to the offseason, but he is far from the only point of curiosity. An outfield logjam loaded with big league regulars and a top-heavy pitching staff that all of a sudden needs help only add to the list of issues Ned Colletti must sort out before the 2015 season begins.

A farm system that has stalled since the class of 2006-08, which featured Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and others no longer with the team, is finally on the verge of bearing fruit again, and Colletti must find a way to successfully integrate young, talented and cost-controlled players into a team whose obscene payroll ($172 million already committed to next year) needs to be curtailed if the organization wishes to develop a sustainable model for success.

It is for this reason that the decision facing the Dodgers’ front office about Hanley Ramirez is by far the most interesting and important one. Either choice plays a huge role in the Dodgers’ next several years: If Ramirez is re-signed to a long-term deal, the 2015 team will likely look quite similar to this one. But in 2016, when Juan Uribe’s contract expires, elite prospect Corey Seager should (hopefully) be ready to step in on the left side of the infield and shift Ramirez to third base. While this is obviously an ideal situation in a perfect world, Ramirez has a history of resisting the move from shortstop as well as a rather lengthy list of recent injuries.

The alternative is to let Ramirez walk this offseason, sign a stopgap shortstop and then hope. They must hope for two things: Seager continues to develop as projected starter and can be a big league shortstop in the next couple years, and Uribe can continue to stave off Father Time and be a productive third baseman.

The first option is the path of least resistance. The Dodgers are clearly swimming in cash, so signing Ramirez likely would not considerably hamper their financial situation in the long run. Additionally, the memories of Ramirez as a world-beater when healthy in 2013 have still not entirely faded—re-signing him is a high-upside play, at least in the short term.

Where that plan would get tricky is in the later years. If the Dodgers invest a lot of money in Ramirez and count on him to play third base but he continues to get hurt, they will be hamstrung. They won’t be able to simply go get someone new because Ramirez will still be on the roster, but they also won’t be able to ink him into the lineup on a daily basis.

Colletti has to make a very difficult decision, and it is one that I do not envy. Either road, though, is dependent on the development of Corey Seager, and that takes us conveniently to the player he’s been linked with all season: Joc Pederson.

Pederson himself is an interesting case because his performance long ago earned him a promotion to the big leagues. He is making a run at 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in the Pacific Coast League, something that has not occurred since 1934. As touched on in the True Blue LA post, it’s not as if the PCL is a particularly difficult place to go 30 and 30. Instead, players with the talent to do so are normally called up to the majors before they get the chance to reach those numbers.

The Dodgers’ 2014 outfield, though, was a special case. With three outfielders making $18 million or more and not one of those three being named Yasiel Puig, there were simply too many players for not enough spots. That was complicated further when Pederson hit the cover off the ball in Triple-A, as instead of three (or four, depending on your opinion of Scott Van Slyke) players fighting for two spots, there were four.

Coming into the season, the Dodgers expected to have a crowded roster. Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and Yasiel Puig are each talented enough to start, but—obviously—there can only be three starting outfielders. Prior to 2014, the Dodgers could delude themselves into thinking the problem would sort itself out: Since the trade in 2012, at least one of the four had been injured. Crawford missed the rest of the year after the trade, and Kemp played just 73 games last season.

Now, though, the Dodgers have had all four healthy for much of the last month and a half—ever since Crawford returned from the DL on July 10. And while manager Don Mattingly has settled on a lineup he prefers, it is a less-than-desirable outcome that has outfielder Andre Ethier (and his $18 million salary) consistently on the bench.

This offseason provides another opportunity for Colletti to sort out the problem. As with the Ramirez situation, there is likely no easy answer. Neither Crawford nor Ethier has much value, be it in a trade or on the field, and their contracts are massive. If they were easily traded, such a deal would probably already have occurred. However, a move is more necessary than ever. Scott Van Slyke has demonstrated that he can be a competent fourth outfielder, and Pederson deserves an opportunity.

The final large hurdle Colletti will have to handle this offseason is pitching. The bullpen’s struggles are well-known, but relievers are easily found and developed cheaply. It is the rotation that looks problematic. We are not far removed from a starting five that appeared to be an embarrassment of riches: Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu led a rotation that was getting a surprise performance from Josh Beckett (ERA under 3 through June) and Dan Haren (ERA under 3 in April).

Now, though, questions abound. Haren has struggled mightily, as he has posted ERAs over 4.00 in each successive month. Beckett is currently on the disabled list, as is Ryu. Greinke is dealing with a sore elbow. While it is unlikely that all of those problems will persist through next year—particularly Ryu’s strained glute—the Dodgers certainly are lacking in depth. And Colletti will have to address that need, whether it be through continued development from internal options such as Zach Lee and Chris Reed or through external additions in trade or free agency.

With the talent currently on the roster and in the high minors, the Dodgers are certainly in a good position. However, their ultimate goal is to be a World Series contender every year, and the decisions Ned Colletti makes will go a long way towards determining both the short-term and long-term health of the organization.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Los Angeles Dodgers: 5 Players Trying to Save Their Jobs for 2015

The stretch run is important for the Los Angeles Dodgers for multiple reasons: They’re preparing for the playoffs, and—with a 3.5 game lead in the NL West as of Aug. 18—the players on the roster are attempting to prove their worth.

To a certain extent, the Dodgers’ 2015 core is locked in. Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, Zack Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw are all scheduled to make at least $18 million next year, and other current members of the roster, such as Yasiel Puig and Juan Uribe, are signed to multimillion dollar deals and will be inked in to the lineup barring injury.

With all that being said, though, there are quite a few roster spots that are—to one level or another—up for grabs, and guys currently on the 2014 team have an opportunity to make their case for continued employment.

 

Note: All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Stock Up, Stock Down for Los Angeles Dodgers’ Top 10 Prospects for Week 5

More than a month through the season, the performances of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ top prospects have stabilized. We’ve seen some regression away from the extremely impressive early season numbers put up by many of the young starters. 

This is not necessarily concerning, of course: Young players are prospects because they still have areas in which they can improve, and consistency is clearly one of those. However, it may indicate that some of these players are not as big league-ready as we might have hoped or expected.

 

Notes: All statistics courtesy of MiLB.com unless otherwise noted. All statistics updated through May 5 unless otherwise noted. Prospect list courtesy of MLB.com. Nos. 8 and 9 Ross Stripling and Onelki Garcia are out for the season, so Nos. 11 and 12 Jose Dominguez and Matt Magill will take their place.

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8 Reasons to Be Optimistic for the Los Angeles Dodgers’ 2014 Season

With Opening Day finally in the books, the Los Angeles Dodgers have officially begun their NL West title defense. Whether or not they will be successful is obviously the big question of the season. As we look forward six months, there are certainly plenty of reasons to be hopeful.

Indeed, the season has actually gotten off to a good start: A two-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks in Australia left the Dodgers in first place to start the season. There are many reasons to be confident for the upcoming season.

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise stated.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers’ Spring Training to-Do List

Spring training is finally upon us! The Los Angeles Dodgers have reported to camp, and baseball is underway. The Dodgers head into March with several legitimate questions that they must figure out, as well as a couple issues that they must monitor.

Many of these questions are health-related. The lineup is likely set, and in an ideal world, the Dodgers would probably know all but one or two spots of their Opening Day roster at this point.

But it is not an ideal world. Instead, people like Matt Kemp and Josh Beckett exist, so therefore uncertainty exists.

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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