Disclaimer: The following is an extremely biased, completely subjective view of the Giants/Phillies rivalry from the mind of a Giants fan.
Phillies fans, you probably shouldn’t read any further without first being aware that you will not like what is written. You will disagree, and will no doubt let me know what an idiot I am for writing this.
Which is fine.
I just want you to know what you’re getting yourselves into before you start.
Ah, the simpler days of baseball.
I remember a time when the number of runs a batter drove in was actually considered a decent measurement of his worth. Just thinking about it makes me feel like an old man sitting on a porch rambling incoherently about the good old days when an RBI meant something, and candy bars cost a nickel.
Of course, the time that I now remember so fondly was also an era in which this was considered a legitimate fashion statement. But hey, no era is perfect right?
In recent years however, a growing community of sabermetricians and advanced statisticians has caused a dramatic change in the way numbers are perceived in baseball.
These days RBI are seen as more of an indicator of lineup depth, rather than individual offensive potency. “Old school” stats like hits and runs have given way to more complex measurements like WAR and BABIP.
But the 20-win mark is a remarkably simple yardstick that has not tarnished with time. It is an oldie but a goodie. A 20-win season means the same thing today that it did 20 years ago—that a pitcher has been really, really good.
It seems almost too simple an explanation that 20 wins equals good pitcher, but that is what’s so great about the 20-win mark—it’s simplicity is timeless.
Seeing a pitcher win 20 games is like turning the radio dial and randomly coming across Nuthin’ but a ‘G’ Thang or any other old-school jam that rocked your world years ago. It is still so good that even by its 100th listen, coming across it in the midst of newer, more complex developments still seems refreshing.
The following is a list of 13 seriously talented individuals who are either already in this select class of 20 game winners or could make the leap this season.
I’m not a sabermetrics guy.
Instead of numbers and formulas, I prefer to rely on what I glimpse with my own two eyes, and judge what I see not with a calculator but with instincts that have been honed through a lifetime of watching baseball.
For the last year, sabermetrics supporters and analysts have been saying that Derek Jeter is done.
I have not believed them.
When I looked at Jeter I saw the same thing everyone else did; an aging shortstop with diminished range and offensive production that was rapidly declining from Hall-of-Fame level to simply average.
But I gave Jeter the benefit of the doubt. If anyone has ever deserved it, it is the Yankee Captain. The goodwill and respect that Jeter has earned in his professional career are not things that are easily erased. His accomplishments can never be taken from him, and have certainly earned him a lifetime pass among baseball fans.
I explained away Jeter’s subpar 2010 season as the simple result of a player entering a different phase of his career who was having trouble with the adjustment. He wasn’t done by any means—he just needed to alter his game.
For the pro’s pro, this would be no problem. His struggles in 2010 would be quickly forgotten once things got back on the right track.
Or so I thought.
Watching Jeter in 2011, I fear my hypothesis on his recent shortcomings is not looking so good.
I am unfazed.
Baseball is a game of ebbs and flows. Slumps are commonplace, even for the game’s best. Although Jeter has continued to struggle this season, it is important to remember that the current MLB season has given us only the smallest of sample sizes. There is ample time for Jeter to right the ship.
And I remain optimistic that he will be able to do just that.
Although Jeter has clearly been frustrated with his bat speed and lack of success at the plate, his work ethic is unparalleled. There is no doubt that he is putting in the work necessary to bring his game back to an acceptable level.
After all, if David Ortiz can hang on and remain productive in the autumn of his career, it is only logical that Jeter can do it too. Especially considering that Big Papi is nowhere near the athlete Jeter is, nor does he posses the legendary drive of Mr. November.
Some will argue that baseball players, even legendary ones, tend to drop off and drop off quickly in their professional golden years. Once you lose that extra step, that half-second of bat speed, you become a dinosaur simply waiting for extinction.
While this is generally true, I still cannot believe that Jeter has fallen to this level quite yet. He is in the midst of a slump, that much is undeniable. And that slump has come at the worst possible time following his 2010 struggles.
But Jeter still has something left in the tank—I’d be willing to wager on it.
Although he has not been good in 2011, the reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. He isn’t Mickey Mantle playing first base just yet. He isn’t even Lance Berkman playing first.
Jeter will pick it up. He probably won’t get to a batting average north of .300 again, and he probably won’t be an 80 RBI guy either.
However a declining Jeter, taken over the course of an entire season, is still a pretty darn good player.
Last year, Jeter was often and publicly maligned for his efforts.
But he still hit .270 with a 179 hits, 67 RBI and a .710 OPS. As I said, I’m not a huge numbers guy, but there are a lot of teams who would take that kind of production from their shortstop, especially if they came with Jeter’s leadership and intangibles.
Like for instance, basically any National League team located outside of Philadelphia or Florida.
For Derek Jeter, last year was a regression. For most players, it would be considered a productive campaign.
I still believe that Jeter isn’t done yet. The great ones always seem to have a trick or two up their sleeve before the end comes, and he is one of the greatest. He is out of his prime, to be sure. But primes don’t last forever. Just because he has peaked doesn’t mean he is totally out of gas.
For Derek Jeter this slump, like many others in his career, will pass. It just happens that because of his age and decreased defensive range, this slump is more widely discussed and panicked over than others.
Once Jeter shakes off his early-season struggles, he will be productive once again, albeit at a lower level than ever before. But productive nonetheless.
For the Yankees, who don’t have any realistically appealing options to replace Jeter at shortstop, the best move is to ride out the storm while standing behind the man who has supported the franchise for his entire career.
It’s not as if New York, flush with talent as always, can’t absorb a few bad weeks from a normally productive player. The Yankees have the talent and flexibility to give Jeter the credit he deserves, and hope that he can work through this rough patch.
To count Jeter out completely is a mistake. He has proven too many times that he is a player who will bare his teeth and rip your heart out if you doubt him.
Slump or no slump, he is still that player.
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The Giants have placed Zito on the DL (15-day variety) for the first time in his career with an extremely vague and mysterious “mid-foot sprain.” Which is a term that somehow manages to sound even more awkward than it looked when it happened.
I shudder to think how badly Zito would have hurt himself were he not protected by the generous cushion of his mustache, which surely prevented greater injury through its Phiten titanium necklace-like effects on Zito’s balance and coordination.
Too bad it couldn’t help his velocity.
Zito injured his foot attempting to field a Joe Saunders bunt in the second inning Saturday against the Diamondbacks. It’s good to know that Saunders’ ownage of the Giants extends further than lazy sliders on the outside corner.
In a way, it is fortunate that Zito will miss a start or two. This injury is really just a much more brief (though arguably less painful) path out of the starting rotation than the one he was already on. But the timing of the injury, and the Giants reaction to it, reveals one of the team’s greatest weaknesses: the back end of the rotation.
Even before the injury, Zito was playing like a wounded man. Jon Miller reported that Zito’s fastball was cruising at a leisurely 82 MPH in the first inning of last night’s game. In a related story, he was also 0-2 with a gaudy 6.23 ERA in three starts this season.
At least now the Giants can finally start reaping the benefits of the one who got away (then went overseas, then was out of baseball)—a former top prospect who was regrettably traded for some guy named Schmidt who was never heard from again.
Returning to San Francisco like the prodigal son of subpar outings is Ryan Vogelsong, who comes back to the Giants from Pittburgh by way of Hyogo, Japan and Anaheim, California. Nothing will be expected of him, aside from not subjecting fans to Guillermo-Mota-as-de-facto-fifth-starter syndrome. Vogelsong’s last full season in the majors was 2004, a season in which he posted a 6.50 ERA, a 1.617 WHIP and went 6-13 in 31 games.
Looking at those numbers, it seems possible that the Giants won’t lose anything in the switch from Zito to Vogelsong.
Realistically, Zito’s starts are always expected to be short and, more often than not, bitter. The orange and black shoes waiting to be filled by Vogelsong are very small in this regard.
The real effect of Zito’s injury—as well as the ineffectiveness of San Francisco’s fourth and fifth starters in 2011—will be measured by the bullpen.
San Francisco’s relievers have been spectacular this season. Last night’s 7.1 IP, 1 ER effort by Mota, Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo and Brian Wilson was reminiscent of team’s run through the postseason in 2010.
But to expect this group to long-relief-by-committee their way through every fifth start this season is unrealistic. And with Madison Bumgarner exhibiting many of the growing pains he somehow managed to avoid last year, there is more pressure than ever on the Giants bullpen.
If Vogelsong can barely keep his head above water, and perform even slightly better than the minimum level of production required for MLB rosterization (AKA Oliver Perez-ing it), he would give the Giants pitching staff a huge boost. If he cannot, well, we’re pretty much back to where we were with Zito.
While things could certainly be worse, this is still not a great place to be.
On the bright side, the Panda is back, baby! And back with a vengeance!
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By now we’ve covered most of the important parts of the 2011 San Francisco Giants. For those of you who didn’t read the first two parts of this preview, here are the Cliffs Notes…
Pitching = good
Aaron Rowand = bad
…And that’s pretty much it. Give or take about 4000 words..
Not included in my previous articles were two of the 2011 Giants potentially most important pieces; Buster Posey and Brandon Belt.These young Giants represent not only the team’s most significant offensive developments since the mid 1980’s, but also an end to the Sahara-like drought that was the SF farm system until 2003.
For most of my life, the Giants could not produce legitimate offensive players.
Part of this was their “need to win now before Bud Selig discovers that Barry Bonds is in fact, half machine” attitude that led to the eventual trading of nearly every promising young prospect in the farm system–just ask any fan who remembers A.J. Pierzynski’s brief-yet-unbelievably-costly run in the city by the bay.
Giants fans suffered through years of call-ups and demotions for their top prospects. We were frustrated as the minimal talents of the Lance Niekro’s and Damon Minor’s of the world rose to the top of the barren SF farm system. We waited and waited for players like Ben Copeland and Eddy Martinez-Esteve to live up to their potential, to no avail.
For these reasons, I was skeptical when I heard of the Giants selecting a young catcher out of Florida State fifth overall in the 2008 draft.
Sure I had heard the legends about Buster Posey.
He was a former Golden Spikes winner.
He once played all nine positions in a college game.
He was ready to hit pro pitching now.
He may or may not be the real-life Roy Hobbs from The Natural.
I heard these tales and I was still skeptical. Call it visions of Todd Linden dancing in my head. I had seen too many big time college hitters with all the credentials in the world join the Giants organization only to discover that they couldn’t hit breaking balls, or make contact against lefties.
But after a few months in the minors, the whispers about Posey persisted.
This guy is a legitimate big league hitter.
The Giants had selected Posey with the fifth pick in the draft and after only a brief stint in the minors, it was generally agreed that he had been a steal. The fan base, desperate for a league-average offense, called for his promotion.
Meanwhile, the 2010 Giants were in a state of flux. They were in contention in the NL West, but lost too many games due to lack of offense, and were in need, it seemed, of an offensive roster overhaul. While San Francisco’s pitching staff kept them competitive, they awaited the arrival of the man who would ultimately prove to be a one-man offensive overhaul, Buster Posey.
Blocking Posey’s path to the majors, both literally and figuratively, was Bengie Molina.
Molina had somehow, through no fault of his own, been designated as the team’s best hitter and was tasked with hitting cleanup and carrying the offense.
Anyone who has ever watched Bengie Molina hit knows this was a massive lapse in judgement.
While Molina was doing his best with the heavy responsibility heaped upon him by Giants management, Posey toiled between the minor leagues and in brief major league stints, where his chief responsibilities included warming up relievers, taking occasional pinch hit at bats, and making sure that Tim Lincecum’s post-game bong rip was ready to go.
He was underused or not used at all for the entirety of 2010’s first half.
Perhaps, Giants fans thought, the front office was so confused by the presence of a legitimate hitting prospect within the organization that their seeming uncertainty of what to do with Posey could be attributed simply to unfamiliarity with his extremely high level of awesomeness.
But Posey was undaunted by his organization’s yo-yo like handling of his young career. When they sent him back to AAA, he went about his business, and devoured minor league pitching like Tim Lincecum devours In-N-Out burgers. When they brought him up to the Majors, he developed his relationships with more established players, said the right things, and waited for his time to come.
And a little after midseason, a funny thing happened. The Giants front office decided that their best home-grown prospect since Will Clark in 1985, may, despite his youth and lack of experience behind the plate, be better than Bengie Molina.
So they brought him up, stuck him in the lineup (eventually trading Molina to the Texas Rangers) and watched the magic happen.
By now, Posey’s incredible rookie season has become the stuff of legends in San Francisco and for Giants fans everywhere.
Offensively, he lived up to the baseball savant status that had followed him since his days at Florida State. He batted .305, with an OPS of .862, impressive for anyone in a Giants uniform, let alone a rookie.
Management’s concerns about Posey’s lack of defensive experience quickly proved themselves to be largely unfounded. He was excellent behind the dish, displaying a calm and poise far beyond his young age. He even filled in occasionally at first base, displaying a level of comfort that was more J.T. Snow than Jason Giambi.
But more important that statistical yardsticks, his impact on the Giants club was immediate and dramatic. The team instantly became a group that, like Posey, were not supposed to succeed–yet they were. Every day, and with every Padres loss (thanks for the collapse, San Diego! Don’t worry about it, everyone saw it coming), the Giants took to their new identity more and more.
In 2011, expectations for Posey are understandably high.
However, for once I am not worried about high expectations crushing the career of a young Giant. He’s already considerably better than Dan Ortmeier, so that’s a win.
And thus far, the rumors surrounding Posey have all turned out to be true.
The guy is a natural.
His swing is pure, his mechanics are solid, and he is unafraid in big moments.
He just looks like a pro baseball player.
It is for this reason that I am similarly unafraid to predict big things from Posey. I see him hitting 25 HR and batting .300-.320. I see him topping 100 RBI in this new version of San Francisco offense. And I see him building on his .505 slugging percentage from 2010.
He might even turn the entirety of McCovey Cove into wine, and then walk across it to save a drowning baby.
Nothing would surprise me.
However even if my statistical projections are off, there is reason to celebrate.
Posey has a swing and an approach that are tailor-made for AT&T Park. His is an incredibly even, fluid swing that produces power even though it doesn’t look like it should. And more importantly for someone playing in San Francisco, it produces doubles.
Posey consistently hits lined shots to all fields. He adapts his approach mid-at-bat. He takes what opposing pitchers give him, and manages to drive the ball to the gaps seemingly with ease.
In any other park in baseball, this is a very good trait. In San Francisco, it can make you great.
Posey will hit lots of doubles, certainly (I’m projecting 35-40 for him, which seems high until you realize that he hit 23 in only 108 games during his rookie season), but that doesn’t take into account all the well-hit balls that will turn into triples in AT&T’s cavernous right-center field gap. It doesn’t account for all the extra bases he will take when visiting outfielders misplay balls off of the right field wall.
Posey’s swing is built for a place like San Francisco, which is why I’m so optimistic that the man who may in fact be the baseball Messiah is capable of reaching his full potential with the Giants, beginning in 2011.
Following in Posey’s gargantuan footsteps is young first baseman Brandon Belt, who is likely to start the season in the minors, much as Posey did in 2010.
Belt was drafted by the Giants in the fifth round of the 2009 draft, and almost immediately began to work his way up scouting reports around the league. The story is that Belt was a very good college player, but had a swing that was not conducive to major league success.
Upon drafting him, Giants minor league coaches went about altering his swing and the results were immediately positive. He hit .352 in low A ball with 112 RBI, 43 2B, 99 R, 173 H, and an obscene, Bonds-esque 1.075 OPS. His success continued in A+ and AA ball, where he produced similar numbers, despite constantly moving between leagues and having no familiarity whatsoever with opposing pitching.
Belt arrived in Giants camp this year surrounded by the same buzz that had followed Posey. Giants fans had seen what a properly developed offensive prospect could produce, and were eager for more.
However, I would like to see the front office give Belt more time to develop.
There is no doubt that his minor league numbers are impressive, but his brief stay in the Pacific Coast League did result in a dip in his statistics. In only 13 games, Belt’s average was a paltry .229, although his OPS remained high at .956. His potential has clearly not dropped, but I feel like Posey has in a sense ruined the curve for developing players. Belt could be great, but he needs time to develop.
He will likely get this opportunity by starting the season in Fresno.
If Belt can continue to develop, he gives the Giants enormous flexibility and potentially their most deadly lineup. Giving Belt the reigns at first, where he is already big-league ready (although let’s be honest, anyone who can hit is big-league ready to play first base) will allow Aubrey Huff to move to left.
A lineup of Torres, Sanchez, Posey, Huff, Sandoval, Belt, Tejada, and Ross would be a force to be reckoned with in the offensively deficient NL West.
The 2011 team projections that follow reflect a first year path for Belt similar to what the organization did with Posey last year–start the year in the minors, and ultimately play in about 100 games.
2011 Starting Lineup:
1. Andres Torres, RF
2. Freddy Sanchez, 2B
3. Buster Posey, C
4. Aubrey Huff, 1B
5. Pablo Sandoval, 3B
6. Pat Burrell/Mark DeRosa LF
7. Miguel Tejada, SS
8. Cody Ross, RF
9. Tim Lincecum, P
Record: 95-67 (1st in NL West)
On paper, the Giants have the talent to cruise through their division for yet another playoff appearance.
But as last year’s team proved, they don’t play on paper.
The chief reservation I have about 2011 concerns the losses of Edgar Renteria and Juan Uribe. While their on-field production can be replaced, both Uribe and Renteria played with chips on their shoulders. They had a knack for the big moment, and were a key part of the swagger that helped the Giants win the World Series in 2010, which is not something that is easily replaced.
The 2010 Giants were a unique group of personalities, each of whom was key to the team’s eventual success.
Losing two of these personalities could be loss that is bigger than anything that shows up in a box score.
It seemed at times last season that the Giants were in fact two teams; The Giants and the Gigantes.
The Giants were guys like Huff, Posey, Lincecum, Cain, Zito, and Burrell. They were laid back, relaxed, and unconcerned with doubters and naysayers.
The Gigantes were Uribe, Renteria, Romo, Wilson, Sandoval, and Sanchez. They were fiery, weren’t afraid to put the team on their backs, and although their play may have been inconsistent at times, their swagger and heart never wavered.
The acquisition of Miguel Tejada could help plug any cracks in the the chemistry dam. Miggy is a well respected veteran leader, with an MVP award in his back pocket to boot.
At first glance it seems as though he will be a perfect fit in San Francisco. That being said, chemistry is a tricky thing in all sports, and although the 2011 Giants season is filled with optimism, we can’t forget all the factors that led to last year’s success, and hope that this group is ready to repeat in all phases of the game.
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The Offense (1 of 2)
At this time last year, a preview of the Giants offense would have been a lot like looking at a sunken ship—rusted-out, depleted and depressing. Not only was Bengie Molina batting cleanup, but the SF offense was so decrepit that no one batted an eye at this decision.
Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff were the prized offensive acquisitions to the team, and neither was expected to contribute much at all—aside from positional flexibility and general veteran-related grittiness, which Giants manager Bruce Bochy loves.
Barry Bonds wasn’t walking through that door. Will Clark wasn’t walking through that door. Eugenio Velez walked through that door, but no one cared, and he was immediately informed that Fresno was located 200 miles east of San Francisco, and that he should probably catch a bus there as soon as possible.
The team’s lone bright spot was Pablo Sandoval, who had broken out in a major way in 2009 and had apparently spent his offseason celebrating said breakout at local Bay Area Mongolian Barbecue’s, leaving Giants fans and front office members alike wondering if he was capable of repeating his stellar first-year MLB campaign.
Concerns about the San Francisco offense proved themselves to be well-founded once the season started. While the starting pitching continued to do what they do—that is, dominate without mercy, they were again hamstrung by a pitiful offense. A large part of this (no pun intended), was Pablo Sandoval’s regression in 2010.
Sandoval came to the Giants with the rap as a bad ball hitter, a guy who would swing at anything but was also capable of hitting anything. Unfortunately, after a year of people around baseball saying that Sandoval would swing at anything—I repeat, anything—pitchers around the NL started to pay attention.
This resulted in the Kung Fu Panda swinging at his usual variety of eye-level fast balls and breaking balls in the dirt but also struggling to adapt his plate approach to his changing scouting report. And while he struggled at the plate, his woes were mirrored in the field, as his lack of conditioning resulted in a slower, less focused Panda.
If his first full ML season could be compared to the first season of LOST, a breakout hit that came out of nowhere to blow minds and tantalize with potential, his second season quickly revealed itself to be a lot like LOST’s second season—a disappointing follow-up that left people wondering if Season 1 was simply the result of lightning caught in a bottle, a feat that could not be repeated. Sandoval did nothing to dispel these thoughts.
This season, however, things are looking up for the Panda. He is noticeably slimmer, and reports of his improved offseason conditioning program have been widely reported. This must mean that he actually had an offseason conditioning program, which is reason to celebrate in itself. While a return to 2009 Panda form could put this lineup over the top from “mildly interesting” to “legitimately dangerous,” Giants fans have, for the most part, hedged their expectations. However, if Sandoval can find a nice middle ground between his first two seasons…
2009: AVG .330/ OPS .943/ HR 25/ RBI 90
2010: AVG .268/ OPS .732/ HR 13/ RBI 63
…and produce something in the area of .300/ .820/ 20/ 90, I think all Giants fans will jump for collective joy. Moreover, a focused Sandoval will hopefully result in a more patient Sandoval, and perhaps, even a player who is capable of drawing more than 45 walks a season. And since I’m wishing for unrealistic things, I’d also like a year-long Cody Ross hot streak and a new shoulder and knee for Freddy Sanchez.
A fully realized Panda batting next to Posey, Huff, Burrell, Sanchez and possibly youngster Brandon Belt, who has been tearing up pro pitching thus far, looks pretty good. Pretty good indeed. And that doesn’t even include a potential second-quality season from Andre Torres or postseason hero Cody Ross. Somewhere in Philadelphia, Roy Halladay just shuddered in disgust at the mere mention of his name.
I am optimistic about Sandoval in 2011. You can’t do what he did in 2009 as a 23-year-old without having some major skills. Yes, he needs to work on his discipline both on the field and at the dinner table. Yes, he needs to learn how to really hit instead of just swing. But the guy can do it. The evidence is there. His first year-and-a-half in the majors, he tore up pro pitching in a way that made us all think he was a once-in-a-generation talent. I, for one, still feel that way.
While we all remember the ultimately legendary nature of Aubrey Huff’s 2010, it is easy to forget that at the beginning of last season, comparable production was expected from Huff and fellow free-agent signee Mark DeRosa. DeRosa’s season ended almost as soon as it began, and the Giants were almost immediately left with decreased defensive flexibility and without a serviceable veteran who would have been relied upon to start in left field, backup all seven other defensive positions, collect 400 AB’s and likely pitch 250 innings. Alright, that last part may have been exaggerated slightly, but DeRosa was going to play, and he was going to play a lot.
Lucky for all of us, no one is relying on DeRosa quite as heavily in 2011. A healthy and fit Sandoval will take care of third base, and Miguel Tejada was brought on board to do the same for shortstop—two positions that weren’t exactly positions of weakness for the Giants last year (Juan Uribe’s clutch-ness and swagger are well-documented, and I think every Giants fan would take five years of terrible Edgar Renteria regular seasons if it meant getting one Edgar Renteria 2010 postseason), but neither were exactly pictures of stability either.
An aging Pat Burrell in left field, combined with the uncertainty of Panda’s weight, Tejada’s age (no, really, people are seriously uncertain how old he actually is) and an oft-injured Freddy Sanchez at second will leave plenty of playing time for DeRosa.
At this point, the best that can be said about DeRosa is that he is what he is. He probably won’t hit .300. He probably won’t get you more than 12 HR or 70 RBI. But if he does manage to produce a .275/65 RBI/10 HR season, all will be forgiven as long as he keeps the infielders (and outfielders) fresh and flashes the leather a little bit.
The big concern with DeRosa is the games played. He’s topped 120 only four times (2006-2009) and has broken 400 AB the same amount of times. No one expects DeRosa to play in 120 games, but if he once again lives up to his injury-prone reputation, it puts an extra burden on the Giants infield. In this way, DeRosa is a bit of an X factor heading into 2011 and an extremely important piece of a team that lost a lot of defensive flexibility with the departure of Juan Uribe.
The opposite side of the Mark DeRosa coin is Aubrey Huff, that thong-wearing, red-headed rascal. While his 2010 season was ultimately a grand success, Huff started the season as basically the standard version of what the Giants thought he could be when they signed him and visibly got more comfortable as the season went on.
He kept his average between .275 and .300 (save for the standard hitter’s transition to playing at AT&T Park—Huff’s April was terrible in 2010) and showed a surprising versatility in the field, as well as an awesome willingness to play anywhere and fit any need. While he was not good enough to carry the team by himself, he quickly showed himself to more Will Clark than Shea Hillenbrand or Ryan Garko, and for that, Giants fans were immediately grateful.
I am optimistic about Huff in 2011. Not only must he be ecstatic to finally be on a winning team in a great city, but his comfort level with hitting at the windy confines of AT&T park has clearly grown. Nobody likes to hit in San Francisco, yet Huff has figured out that if you embrace it and focus on roping liners into the park’s spacious right and left field gaps, success will follow. I’m expecting a big year from Huff, now that his transition to one of the great pitcher’s parks in all of baseball is complete.
I foresee a 500 AB, .310 AVG. kind of season from Huff, while building on his surprising .891 OPS from last season (even pushing that over .900 would not surprise me). Increased lineup potency could easily result in a 100+ RBI season and 160+ hits are almost a given with Huff, but I’m most looking forward to the 10—that’s right, 10—stolen bases I’m projecting from the team’s self-described “best all-around athlete.”
One of the most valuable parts of Huff’s game is that the man gets on base—plain and simple. While his OBP doesn’t exactly jump off the page at you, he is incredibly, remarkably consistent at producing OBP’s in the range of .320 – .360. On a team with so many offensive question marks, and for the Giants, nearly everyone’s potential production could be questioned, Huff will provide a steadying influence on the lineup, even if he doesn’t reproduce his career high .385 OBP from last season.
If Aubrey Huff was a spark that helped ignite a championship fire, Aaron Rowand was like a rainstorm of suck. For Rowand, the transition from glorified little league park in Philadelphia to actual major league stadium in San Francisco has not been an easy one. His gutsiness, grit and willingness to leave it all on the field has not changed, but his production has dipped dramatically, and his power has disappeared altogether. While Giants fans had hoped that his contract wouldn’t eventually evolve into a Zito-esque mess, 2010 was the year that our worst fears about Aaron Rowand were realized.
Like Barry Zito, Rowand’s decline was only made worse by the fact that, deep down, on some primal level, fans want to love him. He seems to be a great teammate. He is always willing to get his uniform dirty, willing to crash into a wall at full speed and willing to put everything he has in him into a game designed for kids. Which makes it that much harder to come to grips with the fact that the dude simply cannot hit. He can’t hit breaking balls. He can’t hit righties. He really can’t hit lefties.
While Rowand had shown signs of decline prior to 2010 (his batting averages since 2007: .309, .271, .261, .230—clearly trending in the wrong direction), last year it all hit the proverbial fan. Additionally, it seems as though Rowand himself has realized his failures. He has realized that big brass ones can only take you so far, and his confidence has suffered greatly as a result. I would like to think that he can return to being a league-average player, but decreased production combined with decreased confidence can not only end seasons, but careers.
We all remember the disaster that was Rowand’s 2010. There’s no need to rehash it further.This year, expectations are nonexistent. A 250 AB, .260 AVG, .720 OPS, 50 RBI kind of season would be a revelation. Heck, maybe it would even convince another team to trade for him without asking for Zach Wheeler or Brandon Belt in return. What’s that? That’s not going to happen? Oh well, we can hope anyways.
Rowand’s regression coincided with many factors, including injuries to DeRosa and Freddie Sanchez, to make for a frustrating start to last season. This season has much more potential for immediate success, partly because of the transition from Rowand in center field to Andres Torres, who came out of nowhere last year to provide a legitimate threat on the basepaths as well as playing a Gold-Glove caliber center and batting leadoff, a traditional point of weakness for recent Giants teams.
I’m still not sure if Torres is for real. Last season, I stayed off Andres’ bandwagon until it was impossible to deny that he was the Giants most productive center fielder. It’s not that I don’t like him, but I’ve seen many a player get hot for three weeks at a time and ride the momentum of that hot streak into more at bats than they probably should have gotten (Eugenio Velez in 2009 was a prime example of this), and for this reason I was, and remain, dubious.
But Torres’ production and value to the team won’t be measured purely by statistics. Sure a high average would be nice, but even a .275 would be great if he can stay healthy and take care of the leadoff spot all season. At the end of 2011, Torres’ season will be gauged by immeasurable stats, such as loopy fly balls chased down in the gaps of AT&T park, clutch triples hit and overall ground covered in the outfield.
Even if I have my reservations about his ability to reproduce his offensive numbers from 2010, anyone who has played the outfield in San Francisco knows that their roles can be defined by so much more than traditional offensive stats. Just ask Randy Winn, who would have been playing minimal games at a minimal salary for another team were it not for his masterful ability to play AT&T’s funky right field wall.
Another player whose impact will not be based on statistics alone is Freddy Sanchez. I say this only because if Sanchez can simply manage to stay healthy for an entire season (or most of it), it will be a win for the Giants, regardless of production. Sanchez came over from the Pirates with pedigree as a former NL batting champ and immediately proceeded to spend most of his San Francisco tenure thus far on the DL.
Look, I love Freddy Sanchez. When he’s healthy, the guy is a stud. He still plays a Gold Glove-level second base and is capable of being one of the most offensively dangerous 2B in the game not named Cano. And let’s be honest, a lineup beginning with Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Posey, Burrell and Sandoval looks much more dangerous on paper than Torres, DeRosa, Huff, Posey, Burrell and Sandoval.
One more note on Sanchez’s propensity for injury. His body is clearly not what it used to be, and nagging injuries will be a problem for him, as they are for most pro athletes, regardless of sport. However, Sanchez wants to play. More importantly, he seems to find a way to play when it matters. Going into the 2010 postseason, I didn’t know if Sanchez would be a factor at all in the playoffs. But he gutted it out, played through pain (including a nasty fastball to the hand courtesy of Kyle Farnsworth) and proved himself to be a gamer and an extremely tough dude. I think that counts for a lot.
Before I break off Part 1 of my 2011 SF Giants offensive preview (to be continued soon), it is important to state that despite relative uncertainty at nearly every spot in the lineup, 2011 is looking far, far better than 2010.
The main causes of offensive struggle last season can be summed up thusly:
1. Bengie Molina being Bengie Molina.
2. A distinct lack of situational (clutch) hitting.
3. A crazy, crazy amount of GIDP’s (grounded into double plays) hit into by the Giants.
4. A lack of a clear, delineated lineup that featured a balance between guys who hit for average, power hitters and role players. 2010’s version of the Giants seemed to be a mishmash of low-average, lower-power hitters with no one in between to legitimately put the fear of God into opposing pitchers.
In 2011, at least from a balance perspective, things are looking up dramatically. Andres Torres looks as though he can provide a stabilizing influence as a leadoff man, and even if he can’t, Freddy Sanchez can step up and do the job. Sanchez is also the ideal second place hitter, a guy who will hit for average and won’t embarrass himself on the basepaths. Then come the big boys.
Posey hasn’t given anyone any reason to doubt him about anything, ever and has proven that he can hit elite pitchers even as a young player. Huff can hit for both power and average and is a proven middle-of-the-lineup guy who is also unafraid during big moments. Pat Burrell clearly still has some life left in his bat, and a rejuvenated Sandoval could put this lineup over the top. Pretty good for a franchise that talked itself into Bengie Molina as its main source of power for not one, but two seasons.
With Bengie gone, San Francisco basepaths and toilets alike will be clearer than ever. While it is impossible to predict how many GIDP’s the Gigantes will collect, their lineup is decidedly more clutch, proven and seasoned than in years past. The starting rotation has been at an elite level for years now, and while no one is arguing that the Giants offense is on par with baseball’s best, it is certainly better and more prepared to succeed than it has been since the glory days of one Barry Lamar Bonds.
Additionally, coming off a World Series win, opposing staffs will not be taking this offense as lightly as they have in years past. It wasn’t the offense that led the way to the title, but it was certainly a part of it, and that, at the very least, commands respect. It’s amazing what a World Series win will do for a team.
Next: Part 2.2: The Final Installment—More Offense! (two words rarely uttered by Giants fans)
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2011 SF Giants Season Preview
It is a good time to be a San Francisco Giants fan. Great even. The Gigantes are fresh off an improbable World Series championship, the farm system is a veritable horn-o-plenty in comparison to recent history, and leading the way is arguably the best starting rotation in baseball—that’s right Philadelphia, I went there.
But with the start of a new season, anything is possible, and new questions are raised. Will the Giants training staff find a way to resurrect the corpse of Aaron Rowand? Will Barry Zito be a serviceable fifth starter, or will he be released by the Giants and banished to a baseball purgatory like Baltimore or Kansas City to finish out his career? Is Buster Posey in fact the baseball Messiah?
The (possible) answers to these questions, and more are less than an inch away!
Part 1: The Pitching, Oh God, The Pitching!
Any 2011 preview of the Giants has to begin with pitching. It was pitching that ran roughshod over baseball’s best and captured the Giants first World Series in over 50 years. I argue that this pitching staff would have dominated absolutely any team from any era last year. That’s how good they were during the 2010 Playoffs.
Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are so awesome they don’t even need to be previewed. They are so awesome that, as I was typing this, Lincecum just ruined some Minor Leaguer’s shot at the bigs with a ridiculous changeup, and Cain threw eight scoreless innings with zero media attention. Barring injury, two more excellent seasons can be expected from the top of the Giants’ rotation.
On most other teams, Timmy and Cain would be seen as what they are—two young guns entering their primes. On the Giants, they are the wise old sages tasked with leading the way for the really young guns, like 2010 MLB Playoff insta-hero Madison Bumgarner.
Of all the players on the 2011 roster, Bumgarner is one of the most interesting to me. He burst through last year with dominating performances on baseball’s biggest stages, against the games’ best. He clearly possesses the testicular fortitude to succeed, and dominate as a starter.
But Giants’ fans know that at this time last year there were reports of decreased velocity and increased hittability from the young MadBum, and for a little while there was something of a Chicken Little scenario brewing within the fan base.
While Bumgarner did his best to put these concerns to bed in last years playoffs, keep in mind that he still has not pitched a full Major League season, and spent most of last season stashed in the minors, enjoying the glorious benefits of extra days off (not to mention bus rides to and from Fresno). Realistically, he is still a very young pitcher who needs to learn how to pitch in the majors, and work through the growing pains of a young starter. However, I don’t think a 14-15 win, 3.50 ERA would disappoint anyone, nor do I think it’s unrealistic.
Bruce Bochy and Dave Righetti have proven their abilities to manage a young roster extremely well, and part of me secretly believes there’s a chance that Bumgarner goes Lincecum all over everyone’s A’s and continues to dominate to the tune of 16-17 wins, with an ERA somewhere between his 2010 regular season 3.00 and his otherworldly 2010 postseason 2.18.
Part of the reason I am less concerned than others about his inconsistent velocity throughout his career is that, despite his top-of-the-rotation stuff, his K rate has never been in the Lincecum-circa-2009 range anyways. He may only strike out roughly 6-8 batters per 9 IP, but he pitches to contact with movement that keeps the ball in the park. Most young pitchers arrive in the Majors relying on velocity to get them through their first year or two. Bumgarner relies on movement and control, which makes him a likely candidate to pitch in the bigs for many years to come.
One of the most impressive MadBum stats is his stellar walk rate. In his first Major League season (2009), he walked only 2.7 batters per 9 IP, and lowered that 2.15 last season including the playoffs. Even factoring in a learning curve, Bumgarner clearly has the stuff and the approach to be a successful third or fourth starter at worst, and an ace at best.
My official projection for the 2011 version of Madison Bumgarner looks something like 16 wins, 6.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, with a 3.25 ERA, while maintaining his always impressive WHIP at about 1.200. This factors in some growing pains, but also the flashes of blinding brilliance we have seen from the young lad in the very recent past.
Speaking of pitching to contact, we arrive at everyone’s favorite punching bag, Barry William Zito. These last few years have been tough for Barry and I. I was intrigued by him as he junkballed his was to a Cy Young Award in Oakland. I was mostly mortified when the Giants outbid themselves by $30 million for him, and overpaid him by roughly $90 million, but was secretly happy that he was on the light side of the Bay, and was optimistic about how that knee-buckling curve would play in the pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park.
Then reality hit. Zito has been incredibly, unbelievably hittable, and rumors have floated out of Spring Training this year that, after not making last year’s playoff roster, Zito would be cut from the team, and paid his money to walk away. To which I say….RIDICULOUS! Listen, even I, the biggest Zito apologist outside of his immediate family, has found it hard to defend him recently—but I’m going to try anyway. Here are the salient points on the Zito Defense:
1. The Giants have no other options for a fifth starter. Here’s an update I just received: Jeff Suppan is not good. He is not better than Barry Zito, neither is Dontrelle Willis. So unless a legitimate offer comes along for an affordable, durable, 200 inning-throwing, preferably hippie-minded starter, Barry is the best option the team has. By far. I know the anti-Zito haze is hard to see through sometimes, but when Jeff Suppan is standing on the other side of that haze, you’re better off sticking with Barry.
2. The Giants are paying him. I don’t understand ever paying a player to play for another organization. It absolutely never works out well. Unless some team is willing to step up and pay Zito’s salary (stop salivating, Giants fans), there is absolutely no point to not rostering him.
3. He fits in. Let’s face it, the Giants are a team filled with allegedly pot-smoking dirty hippies, and goofballs. And Barry Zito fits right in. He plays guitar, keeps it mellow, doesn’t rock the boat, and is a good teammate. Lincecum likes him. Cain likes him. Posey and Sandoval like him. Therefore I like him.
A statistical projection for Zito seems not only futile, but potentially disappointing. We have all seen both the best and worst of Zito, and most of us know what to realistically expect. However, with lowered expectations comes lowered responsibility.
There has been talk of making Jonathan Sanchez the No. 2 starter, in order to break up the lefties and righties, as well as the pitchers who are capable of consistently pitching late into games (Lincecum and Cain), from those who struggle in that area (Sanchez, Zito, and the youngster Bumgarner, who will not be expected to reach the innings totals of his starter brethren).
A rotation of Lincecum, Sanchez, and Cain, followed by Bumgarner and Zito, puts Barry in the fourth slot at best, and the fifth at worst.
Do I think this demotion will result in a return to Cy Young form? Obviously not. But matching up with Jon Garland and Wade Leblanc is surely more advantageous than, say, Clayton Kershaw and Mat Latos. Just saying.
A potential answer to Zito’s expected inconsistency could be Jonathan Sanchez, AKA the mystery wrapped in a riddle bundled up in an enigma. I think if I had one wish for the Giants organization, it would be for consistency from Sanchez, because when he’s on, he’s as good as anyone in the league including his battery mates. But when he’s off, he’s a frustrating, frustrating man to watch. He sprays crisp 94 MPH fastballs all over the place. He twists off incredible sliders that would break hitters down if it weren’t a foot off the plate. His arm action frustrates hitters to the point that, were they to swing at the fastball whizzing a foot over their heads, their timing would definitely be off.
With the need to give Bumgarner some extra rest days as often as possible, a good season from Sanchez would be a key shot in the arm for this team. And there’s reason to be hopeful. In 2010 not only did Sanchez lower his ERA to 3.07, he maintained his stellar K rate, at over 9 per game. He also seemed to be more able to work through a difficult or stressful inning. He still gave up the occasional big hit(s), but his composure on the mound just seemed to be headed in the right direction.
I’m optimistic about Sanchez in 2011. I have faith that he will put it all (or at least some of it) together enough to finally have the season we’ve all been waiting for. For me, a projection of about 175-180 IP, 3.15 ERA, 9.5-10 K/9 and, good God let’s hope for, a sub 4 BB/9 ratio, seems about right. Although I have felt this way in the past, and have been proven wrong before on this topic, and let’s be honest, a 4.00 ERA with 4.8 K/9 wouldn’t surprise anyone.
While the starting rotation is clearly the strength of this ball club, the bullpen remains somewhat of a mystery to me. While they can be fully expected to lead the league in ridiculous haircuts and outlandish facial hair, this is not a group for whom consistency is a strength.
I, like all Giants fans, have been tantalized and disappointed by Sergio Romo and Jeremy Affeldt more times than I can count. When I watch Romo pitch, I see sliders that should be unhittable, starting in the strike zone and breaking three feet off the plate, leaving batters looking foolish and confused. In nearly every game that Romo appears in, he has at least one moment that makes you stop and think “this guy has incredible stuff. He should be one of the best relievers in the league”. Problem is, these thoughts are often followed by a slider that hangs over the plate and is promptly deposited in the outfield bleachers by subpar NL West utility players.
Affeldt presents a similar quandary: is he the guy with the Zito-esque curve and the 96 MPH fastball, or is he the guy who struggles with his control, and gets knocked around by patient-yet-below-average hitters, like the David Eckstein’s of the world?
For me, Romo and Affeldt are the key to the success of the bullpen. Brian Wilson will undoubtedly be Brian Wilson—that is to say he will throw 98 MPH gas, walk one or two hitters too many, and generally give Giants fans a collective heart attack on his way to racking up his 40+ saves.
Javier Lopez, I’m assuming, will continue to own left handed hitters like Cody Ross owns Roy Halladay. And guys like Santiago Casilla and “Razor” Ramon Ramirez will prove serviceable enough to eat up some innings and spell the studs.
But Affeldt and Romo are the key.
With a little consistency, the Giants will have arguably the NL’s best bullpen again. But bullpen’s are fickle mistresses. Elite closers turn into overpaid specialists seemingly overnight, and one injury can decimate a relief crew (just look at former-Giant Joe Nathan’s Twins last season). Healthy and productive years from Affeldt and Romo would give San Francisco the depth to withstand an injury or two (just plug in a Dan Runzler here and an Alex Hinshaw there), but anything less than that could present real problems. Runzler and Hinshaw are great as innings-eaters/injury replacements, but asking them to step up and play major roles is a lot to ask, and I am dubious as to whether they are up to the task.
All that said, the Brian Sabean, Bruce Bochy, and Dave Righetti seem to have a knack for piecing together excellent relief crews. They did pick up Javier “sit DOWN, Ryan Howard” Lopez and Ramon Ramirez for nothing last season, and despite their penchant for high-wire acts, both Romo and Wilson have developed nicely overall, with Wilson emerging as an elite closer and the only modern-day pirate (swashbuckling variety, not Pittsburgh variety) to achieve MLB fame and fortune.
Well that does it for Part 1, hopefully you didn’t’ hate my initial foray into sports blogging, and hopefully you will stay tuned for Part 2: The Offense
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