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Every year there is a player who just gets off to an unbelievable start, like Chris Coghlan in 2009.

But fantasy owners need to be careful about these players before they go and completely change their teams. In most cases, those players who get off to hot starts will drop off, back to the mid-200s by the middle of year.

When looking to change your team, either through free agency or trades, look for consistency and trends in past seasons. Players will normally follow a similar pattern.

Roy Oswalt is a perfect example of this. In most seasons, he struggles during the first half of the season, causing many owners to go so far as to drop or trade him. However, when it comes to the second half of the season, Oswalt is one of the best pitchers in baseball and in the past could be added through free agency in most leagues.

Every year there will be some fluke players, like Paul Konerko last season, who ends up being one of the best players in baseball. But overall, when you look at the players with the hot starts, they are not worth the risk.

Kendrys Morales is someone who you might be able to steal early on. Despite starting the season on the disabled list, Morales was one of the most underrated power hitters before his injury last year. If he struggles when he comes back at first, look for a lot of people to drop him or try and trade him for a lot less then he’s worth.

The same argument can be made for your own players who start out hot. People with Jose Bautista or Jason Heyward on their teams may want to look at dealing them early if they start the season hot.

Bautista in the past has shown he’s a middle of the road type player and now has even less offensive support in Toronto. Also, he’s not going to sneak up on anyone this season.

With Heyward, I know he has looked promising. However, the sophomore slump almost always hits players and I wouldn’t be surprised if Heyward falls into that trap. Also, Atlanta has a strong lineup, so there won’t be the pressure on him to turn it around mid-year if he ends up struggling.

As an owner, there is always panic when your team struggles and you feel the need to make changes. But just step back, take a breath and believe in your team. If you get to early- or mid-June and are still struggling, then it might worth making the changes, but don’t jump on the early star.

By Trey Nelson

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While a lot of fantasy hype might be around young prospects like Jason Heyward and Mike Stanton, don’t forget about some of the proven veterans, especially at some thinner positions.

A player like Chipper Jones is normally going between the 18th and 22nd round in most drafts. However, during the spring he has a batting average close to .388. While Chipper used to be one of the staples at third base before injuries caused him to miss time. If he can stay healthy, Jones could be a steal like Paul Konerko was last season.

Another veteran for fantasy owners to keep their eyes on is J.J. Hardy. Hardy is playing with a greatly improved Baltimore lineup, and having players like Vlad Guerrero, Mark Reynolds and Derek Lee hitting behind him, look for Hardy to score a lot of runs this season. Also, look for a high average as pitchers would rather pitch to him than the power bats behind him.

One final veteran to keep an eye on is Manny Ramirez. Everyone knows about Manny being Manny and his steady decline in his time with the Dodgers. However, Manny reported to camp 15 pounds lighter this spring than the past two seasons and all reports have been he’s really been working to get back to his old form.

Despite Tampa Bay’s lost players, the Rays offense is not as weak as everyone thinks. There will be plenty of RBI and home run opportunities for Manny. Also, playing several games against the Red Sox should give Manny the extra motivation not to embarrass himself and get back to his old form.

By Trey Nelson

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In 2010, it was definitely the year of the pitcher. But early injuries so far have it looking as if the 2011 season may be the year of the injured pitcher.

During a normal spring training, I would be sitting here telling readers to go ahead and take a chance on someone like a Dontrelle Willis because, worst case scenario, you drop him two weeks in and you’re still fine.

But this season hasn’t been a normal year. In the first couple weeks of spring training, three quality No. 1 starters—Adam Wainwright, Zach Greinke and Chris Carpenter—have already found their way to the DL, and I am expecting more to follow in the first couple months.

When drafting your team, it is more important than ever to make sure and grab quality pitchers early on. Even if it means having to overpay or take them earlier than you would like, all indications are that this year will not be a good year to cycle your pitchers.

Pitching is possibly the single most important aspect in fantasy baseball, because of how few starts each week you are going to get from your starters. If you look back at past years’ results, the teams who tend to do well and win the league, normally have pretty deep pitching staffs.

For those of you who already drafted your leagues and had these injured players, like myself, you’ll just have to wait it out. For those of you who haven’t drafted yet, look to try and take three or four potential No. 1 starters instead of one or two. Your offense may struggle, but it will be easier to find a quality outfielder midseason than a quality starter.

Below are some players that I expect to find their way to the DL at some point during the season and are probably worth avoiding this year:

San Francisco Giants Starters

Normally I don’t lump staffs together, but in this case I would avoid them all. In 2010, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner all threw career-high innings. With them still being young pitchers, their arms can’t recover as quickly.

Factor that with the fact that the Giants’ offense normally has problems giving them run support, and I expect their numbers to drop this season—even if they can stay healthy.

John Lackey

Lackey has an injury history and, while there is a lot of hype this year around him, I’m not sold. The Red Sox have problems keeping their entire starting staff healthy at the same time, so I expect at least one DL stint from Lackey.

Also, while the improved Red Sox offense could increase his numbers, he has always had problems pitching against the AL East—especially at Fenway Park.  His numbers are not going to be as good as people hope.

Chad Billingsley

Billingsley has had some past injury problems, but showed signs of returning to his old form toward the end of last season. However, the Dodgers’ bullpen has a lot of issues this season, which I think will lead Mattingly to try and get extra innings out of his starters. This could lead to injury problems for Billingsley, and I expect him to land on the DL probably around mid-June to early July.

A.J. Burnett

Burnett is one everyone should avoid this season. Burnett always has problems staying healthy and, even when he does, his ERA is sky high. Also, in a shaky Yankees rotation, he will be the first one to lose his spot if he struggles out of the gate. Overall, the upside is just too small to justify the risk of using a roster spot on him.

By Trey Nelson

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Every year, there is hype around the top prospects in baseball, and someone is always willing to take them in the middle rounds—hoping to catch the next star early on.

Last year, it was Stephen Strasburg, who is still being drafted in leagues this year despite having Tommy John Surgery in the offseason.

The flavor of 2011, however, is Bryce Harper.

But be careful of these big names. Owners last year who took Strasburg, saw him sit on their bench until midseason, throw a few outings and then be shut down for the year.

The Nationals have already said that Harper will start the season in Single-A ball, so look to avoid him as well.

However, that’s not to say there aren’t some prospects who might be worth the risk.

Most people who don’t follow baseball extremely closely, have never even heard of Brandon Belt. However, he is the Giants’ top prospect and No. 26 overall.

While he will likely start the season in Triple-A, Belt made huge strides in the minors, flying up the ranks last season. He is looking to continue his success this year.

While I wouldn’t normally recommend a Giants’ hitter, because of their park, Belt could produce solid RBI and batting average numbers.  He could be called on quickly if the Giants’ offense struggles out of the gate—similar to how Buster Posey was last season.

Dustin Ackley has bounced back and forth on a couple of reports regarding what position he’ll play and at what level.

In most leagues, he’s listed as 1B or OF, but all reports from Seattle have him slotted to take over the 2B position.

Ackley had huge upside coming out of college as a polished hitter.

Having had the last two Arizona Fall League seasons, and last year in the minors to continue developing his swing, should have helped him be ready for major league pitching this year.

Look for Ackley to hit for a high average.  If Chone Figgins can return to his old form, there could be plenty of RBI opportunities for him, too.

While Brian Matusz might not be your typical prospect, having spent last season with a major league club, he’s still a steal going in the late rounds.

Matusz has a huge upside and was expected to produce big numbers for the Orioles last season.

However, like most of the Orioles players, he struggled to live up to expectations. But the Orioles spent a lot of money this offseason revamping their offense.

The improved offensive support should help Matusz to pick up more wins this season, probably in and around 13 to 16.

Also, another season working with young catcher Matt Wieters, should help him to get his pitches under control this year.

Tampa Bay is not the same threat they have been in the past, and Toronto is in a rebuilding stage—saying they do not want to be the same home-run-based team they were last season.

While Matusz will still have to face the Red Sox and Yankees, he will get the benefit of facing Toronto and Tampa Bay.

The final prospect to keep an eye on is Tampa Bay’s Sean Rodriguez.

Rodriguez is eligible at both 2B and in the OF in most leagues, and showed he can compete at the major league level last season in limited time.

Now that he will be starting and playing more regularly, he should be able to produce similar numbers to last season and improve his average.

Also, Rodriguez will likely be batting ahead of Manny Ramirez in the No. 2 spot.

If Manny is taking his workouts as seriously as he claims, he could end up having a huge year and help Rodriguez score a lot of runs—not a bad option to have as a backup 2B or fourth OF option.

By Trey Nelson

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With Adam Wainwright done for the year, it raises an interesting question for fantasy owners. What happens if you were unfortunate enough to have Wainwright on your team? Or for that matter if one of your top pitchers gets hurt and will miss most of the season? Here are some options to consider that might get overlooked in your draft that you could steal in the late rounds.

Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda may not be able to produce as many wins as a pitcher like Wainwright, but their upsides are still worth the risk, especially if you can steal them in the later rounds. Kuroda lowered his WHIP last season and finished in the top 20 for pitchers in that category. Also, each season with the Dodgers, Kuroda’s strikeout rates have increased. That paired with a Dodgers offense on the rebound could increase his win totals and give you a solid starter.

Ted Lilly adjusted well after being traded to the Dodgers last season. Lilly won seven starts after the trade for the Dodgers and similar to Kuroda, he has a reputation for a low WHIP. The same argument can be made that an improved Dodger offense could help increase his wins. Also, Lilly is going to be the Dodgers’ number three starter, giving him better pitching match-ups than he got last season with the Cubs.

Jake Peavy is another pitcher to look to steal in the late rounds, as most people will overlook him because of his high O-Rank. Most people will shy away because Peavy is coming off shoulder surgery last season, but all reports from White Sox camp are that Peavy is looking like he could be ready to open the season. Worst case senario, he misses a couple of starts. But with an improved White Sox offense and the benefits of pitching out of the five slot in the rotation, Peavy should be able to pick up more wins than people would expect. Also, if Peavy can return close to his old form, look for high strike out numbers this year.

Johan Santana is another pitcher coming back from injury that people might shy away from. Santana won’t be back until mid-June, but if you’re in a league with two or three DL spots, it might be worth drafting him, putting him on the DL and picking up a filler pitcher until he gets back. With the exception of Philadelphia, Santana won’t face much competition or many hitter-friendly parks in his own division, and if Reyes and Beltran can stay healthy and Bay can return to old form, look for the Mets to pick up more wins this season and give Santana more run support, something he has lacked the past couple seasons.

By Trey Nelson

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I think catcher is the most overrated position in fantasy baseball, and every year a majority of players in each league will make the same mistakes. Yes, having Joe Mauer on your team will be great if you can get him, but I don’t know anyone who sits there and says they won their league because they had Ramon Hernandez or Kurt Suzuki as their catcher.

Buster Posey showed signs that he could develop into a good fantasy hitter last year, but it probably makes more sense to wait a couple years and let him develop before you jump to the conclusion he’s the next Mauer.

However, my advice to all players would be to avoid a catcher during your draft unless you have a chance to take Mauer in the sixth or seventh round. Any earlier and the move is counterproductive because you would be passing on a different player who could have more benefit to your team in the long run.

When it comes down to it, most catchers will go on some sort of hot streak during the season, where they crack the top 100 rankings and have a solid two weeks of production. But in the end, almost all of the catchers are going to end up the same. They will have an average between .260 and .280, about 15 to 20 home runs, and 60 to 75 RBI.

Rather than taking a catcher who in most weeks will bring down your team average and use up a valuable roster spot, use that spot to take another starting pitcher, someone who you think could have a big year, or use it to cycle through free agent pitchers during the season.

Cycling pitchers in most cases will bring up your ERA and WHIP by nature, just because the more starts your team has, the more chances there are for someone to have a bad game. The benefit that you will get by cycling pitchers is your team will pick up wins and strikeouts, which could end up determining if you win the week or not if you are playing in a head-to-head league.

Unless you can get a catcher like Mauer without having to burn one of your early round picks on him, look to avoid a catcher altogether and cycle pitchers or pick up a player who has gotten hot at a position where you aren’t as strong. In the end, either option will do your team more good than taking the eighth or ninth ranked catcher.

By Trey Nelson

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Second base is one of the most hit-and-miss positions in the fantasy game. Everyone knows about the big names: Chase Utley, Robinson Cano and even Dan Uggla most years.

Last year saw an increase in production from second base that most people didn’t see coming. If you saw Rickie Weeks, Kelley Johnson and Martin Prado being in the top five of second baseman, more power to you and you probably don’t need my advice. If you were one of the many who didn’t, here are some late round sleepers to watch and consider and some players to avoid at second base:

Sleepers

Marco Scutaro – Boston Red Sox 

After a solid 2009 season, there was a lot of hype around Scutaro going into 2010. Unfortunately, he did not live up to most owners’ expectations, hitting only .275 with five stolen bases and less than 100 runs scored.

But with new additions to the Red Sox including Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, there is the potential for Scutaro to have a big year for fantasy owners in runs scored and RBIs. Also, look for Scutaro to have a higher average as more people on base will open more holes for him.

Chone Figgins – Seattle Mariners 

While Figgins is eligible at second base in most fantasy leagues, he will end up being the Mariners’ third baseman this season, making room for prospect Dustin Ackley to take over at second base.

Figgins has been a better hitter in his career when he starts at third than when he starts at second, which should increase his average from the disappointing .259 last season. Figgins will still get the steals you want, but look for an offensive increase and a late-round steal.

Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles 

Roberts is probably one of the most underrated and overlooked players in the game. When you are drafting, most managers will avoid Roberts because of his low numbers last season.

But remember, Roberts missed more than half of the season with an injury and with new additions like Derek Lee, Mark Reynolds and Vladamir Guerrero, the potential is there for Roberts to score a ton of runs if he can stay healthy. Also, the American League East does not have any solid defensive catchers, so Roberts could easily end up with 35 or 40 stolen bases.

Avoid

Kelly Johnson – Arizona Diamondbacks 

Kelly Johnson came out of nowhere last season, but look for a major drop-off this year. Part of Johnson’s success came from the surprise factor, but look for National League West pitchers to give him more attention this season.

Also, Justin Upton is really the only other offensive threat in a weak Arizona lineup, and Upton could be traded around the deadline. If Johnson gets moved midseason to a hitter-friendly park, or a team with more offensive weapons, look at picking him up then, but avoid him in your draft. Someone will take him about four rounds too early and you don’t want to waste a pick.

Ian Kinsler – Texas Rangers

Ian Kinsler in past years was one of the top second baseman in the game before getting injured last season and only playing in 103 games. When you look at the Rangers’ lineup, a couple things jump out that could limit Kinsler’s production.

Hamilton and Beltre could have good seasons and provide opportunities, but Beltre is just as likely to tank this year just like his time in Seattle and Hamilton has had some injury problems that could still bother him.

Aside from those two, there really is not a lot of RBI or run scoring chances for Kinsler. Young is most likely going to get moved soon, Andrus has had his share of offensive problems, and Mooreland has potential, but is still a rookie who’s developing. If Kinsler can stay healthy, he has the talent and a hitter-friendly park, but there are too many factors working against him.

Juan Uribe – Los Angeles Dodgers 

Similar to the hype around Aubrey Huff, there was a lot of buzz about Uribe during the offseason coming off his playoff success last season. However, most people around baseball had seriously questions about Uribe’s durability and if he could play a full season and be an everyday player.

Also, Dodger manager Don Mattingly has not yet figured out where Uribe would hit in the lineup or if he will win the starting spot outright, as the Dodgers signed veteran infielder Aaron Miles last week and their top prospect, Dee Brown, is a middle infielder who they could try and get some at-bats during the season.

Pair those factors with a Dodger lineup that had problems scoring runs last season, and Uribe could have a real letdown season for fantasy owners.

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