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Johan Santana Could Miss 2011 Season: Why the Mets Ace Will Never Be the Same

New York Mets star hurler Johan Santana is the anchor of the staff, a leader in the clubhouse and represents the largest annual salary on the payroll.

They depended on him to set the tone and at times carry the team on his back down the stretch. The organization already knew he would miss most, if not all, of the first half of the 2011 MLB season, but uncertainties have now transformed directly into widespread fears.

Reports out of Mets camp and NorthJersey.com’s Steve Popper and Blob Klapisch are now hinting that Santana could miss the entire 2011 season.

Any orthopedic surgeon will tell horror stories of shoulder operations in comparison to those taking place within the elbow. A pitcher is better off having two Tommy John procedures before one rotator cuff tear.

That said, initial word out of New York led us all to believe that this was a fairly status quo recovery—resulting in a fully healthy Johan returning for the stretch run. Santana himself seemed confident in the mapped out timetable.

Now it is possible that all of this will come crashing down before the first pitch of the season whistles across the plate at Citi Field.

Dating back to his trade to Queens following the 2007 season, I had very strong concerns regarding his mechanics and short-arm delivery. It seemed that there was virtually no way that he could hold up over the length of his contract.

Three years into the deal, Santana’s already missed an average of 15 percent of his starts each season. In addition, his K/9 dropped from 9.7 in Minnesota to 7.9, 7.9 and 6.5 against less powerful National League lineups.

His dominance has been slipping away for a few years now, all while his baseline ERA looked as solid as ever. Santana had such excellent command, however, that he could overcome his decreasing velocity and movement to consistently pitch well in the NL.

Now the question is will the Mets ace ever be the same? It seems like Santana had plenty of years left in the tank, but he will already be 33 years old before Opening Day 2012.

If Johan does in fact miss the entire 2011 campaign, will he begin the all too familiar fade into mediocrity that many injured pitchers have suffered in their lives beyond 30?

The Mets would have a very serious situation to face head on, as Santana is due $55M guaranteed over the next two years. Considering the financial unrest within the Wilpon family business, he could instantly become the most damaging contract in MLB.

It is hard to believe that the 2012 version of Santana would boast a 91-93 MPH fastball, or even the dynamic movement on the changeup that has made him a world-class pitcher in his career. He has already been forced to limit the use of his slider, and this shoulder setback would virtually eliminate it permanently.

Assuming the reports are true, in which Mets brass believe they’ll be “lucky” if Santana pitches this year, all signs would point to the Mets paying a No. 3 or No. 4 starter like an immortal and unhittable ace.

Their ability to trade Santana in the offseason—or even at next year’s deadline—seem nearly impossible, and the Mets will seemingly have to take one on the chin until 2013.

All area fans have to hope against hope that these reports are premature and incorrect, or they can all but kiss the next two to three years of Mets baseball goodbye.

There is no scenario in my mind that ends with Santana resorting back to his 2008 form, and they would actually be fortunate to get the 24-18 from 2009-2010 over the final two years of his deal.

As a Santana admirer, I would be very pleased to be proven wrong and have to eat my words, but my instincts tell me that we have seen the last of the Johan Santana we have grown to parallel so seamlessly with “consistency.”

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Manny Banuelos: Why the New York Yankees May Possess MLB’s Next Big Thing

Yankees stud prospect Manny Banuelos may be just 19 years old, but his pitching arsenal already resembles that of a 10-year MLB veteran. Add to that a presence on the mound that screams “I belong here,” and the teenager has all the tools for superstardom.

Avoiding the hype train from running off the rails is very difficult, as New York City is buzzing with the thought of Banuelos donning pinstripes in meaningful big league games. Expectations need to be corralled as much as possible, but everyone from fans, players, management personnel, and rival scouts have a hard time keeping his name off of their tongues.

Banuelos has already drawn comparisons to a young Ron Guidry, the next Johan Santana, and a more advanced Clayton Kershaw (from Kershaw’s former backstop and current Yankee Russell Martin).

This lofty praise can often rattle someone as young as Man-Ban, but he is more than taking it all in stride. In a recent interview on the YES Network, he said he wants to be better than anyone he’s compared to, and he “wants to change NY’s mind and pitch this year” in MLB.

It is simple to display such easy confidence when your arm appears like a descendant of one of Zeus’ lightning bolts. He possesses a calm delivery that still produces 95-97 MPH, an elite MLB-level changeup, and a rapidly improving curveball. Oh, did I mention he’s left-handed?

Standing just 5’10” explains the Guidry symmetry, but any injury worries based on his small stature can be silenced by his strong bottom half and smooth mechanics. No one is immune to injury, but Banuelos seems far less a risk than “max effort” types.

In a recent spring game against the Boston Red Sox, he displayed each and every skill that has wowed scouts for the last 18 months. He threw changeups in 1-0 counts, biting curves in 2-0 counts, spotted fastballs at 95 on the black to righties, and showed knowledge of the importance of pitch sequences.

Banuelos’ final pitch was a 96 MPH fastball out of the stretch, and could have been caught by a blind man as it exploded with late life directly into Martin’s glove.

Mid-game interviews with Joe Girardi and Alex Rodriguez both produced gleaming smiles and awe-inspired compliments about the young lefty, and for once they were not embellishing. Aside from the otherworldly debut months of Joba Chamberlain in 2007, no Yankees prospect has been this impressive this early in a very long time.

After striking out 85 in just 62.2 IP at Single-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton, it is expected that Banuelos will begin 2011 back at Double-A. He will quickly rise to Triple-A Scranton, but then the 20-year-old will have to really shine to be a September call-up.

He has never thrown more than 109 innings in one season, and an appendectomy limited him to the previously mentioned 62.2 in 2010. Yankees brass will take it easy with him, and as such will be reluctant to push him up the ranks too soon.

The problem is that just like a young boy with a shiny new toy, it will be virtually impossible for them to hold him back for long—especially if his curveball continues to rise from “new pitch” to “unhittable weapon.”

Like with any young hurler, there are a seemingly infinite number of hurdles for him to jump over to reach his full potential, but did Yankee scouts find the game’s next top ace on a small field in Mexico three years ago?

New York had better hope that they have, because their luxury of poaching drool-provoking talents from foreign countries (Jesus Montero, Gary Sanchez, Robinson Cano, Banuelos) may soon be coming to an end.

If MLB puts into place an amendment that will force all international prospects to be a part of the Rule 4 Draft, signings like these will dry up for the Yankees and other big-market clubs.

That said, there is nothing MLB can do to pry Banuelos from their grasp, and fans all over the metropolitan area are begging GM Brian Cashman to turn down all offers for the young stud.

Could he turn out to be the next Mark Prior, Brien Taylor, Andrew Miller, or Dewon Brazleton? Absolutely, but it’s looking more and more like they may have found the next Johan Santana, David Price, or Adam Wainwright.

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Albert Pujols Rumors: 10 Reasons He Will Be a Chicago Cub in 2012

With the looming “Albert Pujols Extension Deadline” quickly approaching, it is widely believed that it is unlikely the two sides will agree in time.

They are currently too far apart in both years and average annual salary, and Pujols may view the open market as a gold mine.

It is never out of the question that an agreement could be reached, but “The Machine” wants no part of a year-long distracting negotiation. If he enters camp without a deal, he will remain without one until season’s end.

This inevitably breeds rampant speculation as to his whereabouts in 2012, potential trade packages, what teams can afford him, and whether those teams even have a need at first base.

While taking all of this into account, the most likely landing spot for the star slugger if he chooses to leave, is with the Chicago Cubs.

This piece will analyze the 10 best reasons as to why this will be the case, and will come from both the Cubs and Cardinals perspectives on the matter.

Feel free to let me know how you feel in the comment thread after checking it out, and without further adieu, let’s get started.

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MLB Rumors: 10 New York Yankees Offseason Rumors You Should Not Believe

MLB trade rumors and free agency whispers begin to fly around the news wires every offseason and the New York Yankees normally have their own column stretching on for miles.

Due to their annual payroll advantage and relentless desire to improve at every position, the New York Yankees are usually linked to each and every high-priced athlete put up for grabs.

While some rumors (such as Cliff Lee currently or CC Sabathia in 2008) have plenty of credibility attached to them, many others are nothing more than empty hopes and dreams. Often times these rumors are ways for teams to posture and improve their standing in other negotiations.

This list will help to cut through the nonsense and play a little New York Yankees “Fact or Faction” with regard to the offseason rumor mill.

Here are 10 often-discussed Yankee rumors that you should not at all believe:

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New York Yankees: Jose Tabata Deal Earns Fan Angst, Not Curtis Granderson Trade

Nothing infuriates a fan base more than watching a young player—formerly a prospect within their team’s system—blossom into stardom in another uniform.

One would tend to think that when rooting for a team like the New York Yankees, this mindset would apply much less frequently—as they often demand a prospect fire sale to bring in the latest available superstar on the market.

That may have been the case when the best prospects to establish themselves in the big leagues outside of New York were Eric Milton, Christian Guzman, Ted Lilly, Jake Westbrook, and Nick Johnson (welcome back).

The fans of the Yankees are now as prospect-conscious as ever, and have many times showed displeasure toward potential deals for former All-Stars because of a young player’s involvement in the deal.

It all started with the Johan Santana sweepstakes in 2007, when Phil Hughes, Robinson Cano, and Joba Chamberlain were all potential targets of the Minnesota Twins organization.

It has now reached the peak with the backlash of the Austin Jackson for Curtis Granderson swap, as well as the now unfair expectations for impressive prospect bat Jesus Montero in Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre.

Jackson, a 23-year-old rookie CF, has shown marvelous outfield range while on pace for 50 extra-base hits, 25+ steals, 100+ runs, and nearly 200 hits. He will now forever be compared to Granderson, who has had a poor inaugural season in pinstripes.

However, the trade most Yankees fans should be putting to task is the one going largely unnoticed. To prepare for the stretch run in 2008, New York gave away young OF prospect Jose Tabata to the Pirates in a deal for Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady.

The Yankees missed the postseason in 2008, Nady was lost for the 2009 season and ultimately not re-signed, and Marte (although a vital World Series contributor) has produced next to nothing over two and a half regular seasons.

Whatever happened to Tabata? He is starting every day as a 22-year-old rookie in Pittsburgh, and has hit .335 with 39 R, 80 H, and 12 SB over his last 60 games. These are on pace for 105 R, 216 H, and 32 SB over a 162-game season—all while displaying very solid outfield range defensively.

Tabata has displayed equal speed and run-scoring ability, better run-producing, and superior average and on-base percentage than Jackson—all while in a much less dangerous lineup at a younger age.

The Yankees may still yet get an All-Star season out of Granderson in the next few years, and the deal has plenty of time to shift momentum from one side to the other. The Tabata deal, however, can only get worse from here on out.

Much can be said for Marte’s ability to tame Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, and others during his nearly perfect World Series display. It is impossible to ignore its importance, but Marte was only on that 2009 team because of a free agent signing after the 2008 season—one that likely would have occurred regardless of the trade.

All of the raw talent seen in Tabata when the Yankees signed him at 17 years old in 2005 is beginning to come to fruition, and New York fans are left wondering “what if.”

If trading Jackson for a power-hitting CF with speed was second-guessed so ferociously, then certainly the Tabata trade should be generating a tad more negative buzz from the “Yankees Universe.”

It remains to be seen if Tabata will be figured out by National League pitchers as time moves on, but his current progression is already leaps and bounds above the production seen from the players New York received in return for him in 2008.

The “Jackson vs. Granderson” debate will likely wage on in chat rooms, Twitter conversations, and blog posts all over the tri-state area for years to come. However, the true unrest over trading a young OF prospect for a veteran OF should instead be about Tabata vs. Nady.

Check us out on Twitter at @BR_MLB for all your MLB updates, breaking news, latest stories, trivia, and more.

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Yankees’ Offseason Leaves Struggling Stars One Losing Streak Away From Boo Birds

As the calendar officially flipped over to May this morning, it became impossible not to reflect on what the past 30 days has entailed for baseball’s reigning “World” Champions.

 

April had its questions, its uncertainties, and its collective breath-holding, but as the smoke cleared from Major League Baseball’s most volatile month, New York still finds itself where it feels it belongs.

 

It is nothing short of a miracle for the Yankees to have won 68 percent of its games with Nick Johnson, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Curtis Granderson providing no more than frequent flyer miles from a bevy of intercontinental flights.

 

Just how horrific has this group been in the season’s opening weeks? They have combined to hit just .190 with 9 HR and 35 RBI in 300 at bats. Fortunately the team has been playing so well, or there may have been a stinging “April Showers” of boos raining down on the heart of the batting order.

 

Granderson’s extensive offseason work and film study with hitting coach Kevin Long has resulted in a .172 AVG against lefthanders—the very crippling liability that he vowed to improve.

 

Add to this a 1-3 record and 9.00 ERA in Javier Vazquez’s “triumphant” return to pinstripes and questionable bullpen performance—outside of the 9th inning—and it is scary to think how much room this juggernaut has to grow.

 

To make matters slightly frustrating, four potentially vital contributors were shipped off following the 2009 season, and all are performing at or above betting odds for 2010.

 

The Detroit Tigers currently sit at 14-10 in the AL Central—even after trading away a handful of young veterans for “almost ready” talent. It was expected that the Tigers were a year or two away, but three Yankees are ensuring that the incubation period is vastly accelerated.

 

Outfielders Johnny Damon (.329) and Austin Jackson (.364) have combined for 38 runs scored, and Jackson fell just four hits shy of setting an MLB record for most hits in April by a rookie.

 

In addition, former lefty reliever Phil Coke has added increased command to his apparent diet of solely butter fat and Cinnabons, as his ERA has shrunk to an anemic 1.93 this season.

 

Across the country, meanwhile, Hideki Matsui is on pace for a .273 AVG, 27 HR, and 88 RBI. This stat line should look rather familiar to Yankees fans, as he produced a .274 AVG, 28 HR, and 90 RBI on his way to a World Series MVP in 2009.

 

Winning can quickly turn heartfelt boos into golf claps and encouraging applause for struggling stars, but they know playing in the Bronx means they are one extended losing streak away from the most potent venom of the MLB fan landscape.

 

While Teixeira has earned an extended reprieve in his second season, it is alarming that brutal October performances have carried over into the worst April of any player in MLB.

 

For the others, the only memories Johnson, Vazquez, and Granderson have created in New York involve postseason collapses, stints on the disabled list, bloating earned run averages, low on-base percentages, and even lower batting averages.

 

The team is in fantastic shape for a successful 2010 campaign, possibly ending in 100+ wins and an ALCS matchup with their nemesis in Tampa Bay. They are 15-7 without most of their stars hitting their strides, and they historically floor the gas pedal as spring turns to summer.

 

There are plenty of cheers, sweeps, All-Star appearances, and individual awards on the horizon for Steinbrenner’s crew, but I will issue a public warning to New York’s currently imploding stars:

 

At the first sign of a losing streak littered with frustrations and heartbreak, you may want to invest in a handful of earplugs.

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