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The addition of a second wild-card slot has had a huge effect on the MLB trade deadline the past three seasons.  With so many teams on the fringes of contention, teams that have actually chosen to auction off assets have enjoyed a thriving seller’s market due to the scarcity of real impact.

Entering the All-Star break this season, 18 of the 30 teams have at least a 16 percent chance of reaching the Wild Card Game, per Fangraphs‘ playoff odds.  While teetering teams like the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers may add to the list of sellers, there again figures to be fierce competition for the top trade assets on the block.

With the league at a standstill for the next few days, let’s round up the latest trade buzz roughly two weeks before the July 31 deadline, starting with a pair of Cincinnati Reds stars.

Astros in on Cueto

The Houston Astros have been the biggest surprise of the season, and despite losing the AL West lead they held for most of the first half, Fangraphs still pegs the young squad with a 56.2 percent chance of reaching the postseason.  Consequently, Houston is looking to boost those odds with the highest-profile rental of the deadline period, per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman:

The Astros have keen trade interest in Reds starter Johnny Cueto, and it appears he may even be their top target, if as expected Cueto hits trade market soon, people familiar with their thinking say.

The Astros just fell a half game out of first place after a very nice first half in which they led the AL West basically the whole way, and one person connected to their team said that “they know they need a starter.”

The Astros do have a nice one-two punch at the top of their rotation with All-Star starter Dallas Kuechel and potential Rookie of the Year Lance McCullers.  However, apart from Collin McHugh, the rest of the rotation has been a sinkhole, especially after Scott Feldman’s knee injury in May.  Brett Oberholtzer and Vincent Velasquez have been roughly replacement-level starters, and the Astros need at least one pitching upgrade if they intend on swimming with the top contenders in 2015.

Though Cueto got snubbed of an All-Star berth, his numbers aren’t all that far off from last season, when he finished runner-up in the NL Cy Young voting.  His 3.06 FIP is actually lower than the 3.30 mark he posted in 2014, and he’s cut his walk rate from 2.40 BB/9 to 1.67.  Cueto has gotten opposing hitters to chase 37 percent of his pitches outside the zone, the fifth-highest mark in the league, as his swing-and-miss stuff is clearly there:

Houston’s offense could use another table-setter besides Jose Altuve who can get on base, but pitching looms as an equally strong need.  Cueto would only be an Astro for two months given his expiring contract, but he would also enhance Houston’s chances of delivering a playoff berth ahead of schedule.

Bruce on the Block

Cueto isn’t the only player who could ship out of Cincinnati, as right fielder Jay Bruce could also end up elsewhere come August.  Heyman reports that the Reds are about to become full-fledged sellers, so despite being under contract, the 28-year-old could still move at the deadline:

Reds right fielder Jay Bruce is available in trade, league sources say.

The Reds are expected by rivals to become a full-fledged seller in coming days, perhaps shortly after the All-Star Game here, but to this point the one name being heard is Bruce, which is somewhat curious since they have multiple big players who are free agents after the year, and Bruce isn’t one of them.

Bruce has offered a proven power bat in the middle of the lineup for years and, according to Heyman, is under contract for a reasonable $19.5 million total through the end of next season (plus a $13 million player option for 2017).  With at least two years of team control, the Reds might be able to extract as large a haul for Bruce as Cueto or Mike Leake, both of whom are free agents after this season.

After a horrid start, Bruce has heated up recently, posting a gorgeous .342/.390/.632 line in July.  The poor BABIP luck that plagued him last season has begun to rebound, and with his lowest strikeout rate (22.2 percent) since 2009, teams in need of lefty power like the Angels and Royals could start a bidding war for Bruce’s services in the upcoming weeks.

 

Padres Shopping Shields 

The San Diego Padres were one of the biggest spenders this offseason, but the money hasn’t bought them a contending ticket.  Sitting 10 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and 7.5 games behind the second wild-card spot, Fangraphs pegs the Padres’ playoff odds at a minuscule 2.4 percent.  Facing that bleak outlook, San Diego is apparently shopping one of their big offseason adds, according to Peter Gammons:

On the surface, James Shields has regressed from his Kansas City days, posting a 4.01 ERA that would be his highest mark since 2010 and a career-high 3.09 walk rate.  However, as Beyond the Boxscore’s Murphy Powell argues, Shields’ peripheral stats suggest poor flyball luck that could spell a second-half rebound:

James Shields is striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings and walking nearly three per nine. If you prefer percentages, he’s striking out about 27 percent of the guys he faces and walking 7.7 percent, all of which are career highs. The home run rate will likely come down — it would be fairly remarkable to see that mark stay higher than 17 percent all year when the league standard is about 11 percent. Shields has made some changes with his curveball usage, and it’s been useful for the most part. The strikeouts and whiffs are great. With a 3.21 xFIP, we might see some better overall results for Shields soon.

Powell notes how Shields’ fastball and cutter have both gotten pounded for power this season, a troubling development given how often he throws those pitches.  Nonetheless, Shields’ batted-ball profile is virtually copy-pasted from last year, as he’s not giving up much more hard contact.  If the Padres really do sell low on Shields, they might be underselling his bounce-back potential.

Shields’ market might not be robust given his age (33 years old) and $62 million salary over the next three seasons, though he can technically opt out after 2016, per Spotrac.  Given his “Big Game” moniker, it would only be fitting for Shields to return to a contender in time for October once again.

*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Fangraphs.

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Announcing the MLB All-Star roster now comes in three waves.  We’ve already passed the first two, with the fan-selected starters and manager-selected reserves.  But with the slew of injury replacements who find their way onto the roster, both the American League and National League dugouts begin to resemble college football rosters by the time the actual game rolls around.  

So the current snapshot below represents a more accurate representation of who has most deservedly earned the All-Star moniker.  And even excluding the next wave of players, there’s still a fair degree of uncertainty as to how Bruce Bochy and Ned Yost will actually manage these rosters, which creates some intriguing questions that won’t be answered until the game.

Check out the current AL and NL rosters below while also looking ahead to which players could find themselves most prominently featured in the Cincinnati spotlight.

2015 MLB All-Star Game Lineups

Storylines to Watch

Who Starts on the Mound?

The final vote might be the most immediate roster concern in the spotlight, but the most glamorous decision will come with the starting pitcher announcements.  Whereas one league has a fairly clear front-runner, the other squad will have a much wider net to cast to field its range of possible candidates.

In the senior circuit, Max Scherzer has been the clear class of the National League.  The Washington Nationals’ ace has been spectacular apart from a brief early June blip and, according to FanGraphs’ WAR, has accumulated nearly a full win more than any other pitcher in the league.

Scherzer has always harbored swing-and-miss stuff, but his control hasn’t always been great, something that held him back early in his career.  His newfound elite control has elevated his pitching again, though, as his 1.02 walks-per-nine-innings rate (BB/9) currently ranks third among qualified starters.  Assuming he does get the starting nod, Scherzer will join some historically elite company:

Yost won’t have nearly as simple a choice for the AL.  Reigning Cy Young winner Corey Kluber is somehow not on the roster despite leading the league in WAR, though he might sneak his way onto the roster later.  One possible alternative could be Dallas Keuchel, the ace of the Cinderella first-place Houston Astros.  

The Astros don’t really have a signature player serving as the mainstream face of the franchise, and a starting All-Star nod for Keuchel could vault him into that role.  The 27-year-old has maintained a sparkling 2.14 ERA and 11-3 record despite some poor fly-ball luck, and he’s certainly earned the respect of his peers:

The Chicago White Sox’s Chris Sale might get the nod based on pedigree, as he’s now a four-time All-Star who’s been on the precipice of starting previous games without actually earning the distinction.  Sale’s absurd 11.78 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) rate leads all qualified starters as he continues to carry the mantle for an otherwise nondescript White Sox squad.

Chris Archer, Sonny Gray and David Price are among the others who could at least make an argument for the starter’s role.  Whoever gets the assignment will likely face off against Scherzer, but the guess here is that it boils down to Keuchel vs. Sale.

Who Replaces Injured Starters?

The starting pitcher’s slot isn’t the only starting job that will be up for grabs.  As you can see in the lineups above, there are at least three fan-voted starters who will be unable to participate because of major injuries: Miguel Cabrera, Alex Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton.  

St. Louis’ Matt Holliday has also been on the disabled list for the past month with a torn quad, but the Cardinals vet is pushing for a return and plans to play in the All-Star Game, per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch‘s Derrick Goold.

For now we’ll operate under the assumption that Holliday does play, leaving three spots open for current reserves.  It’s important to note that the managers don’t simply need to take the next-highest vote-getters to replace their injured starters, as Yost and Bochy will both be able to pick their own starters.

On the AL side, the pickings are slim to replace Cabrera.  Eight of the top 10 leaders in WAR among first baseman are from the NL, and Cabrera is one of the two AL reps.  Albert Pujols is the other one, and given his MVP pedigree and power resurgence (which will see him featured in the Home Run Derby), the Machine seems like the most logical candidate to replace the Detroit Tigers first baseman.

Yost doesn’t have to stick with a natural left fielder to replace Gordon, but if he does, he might have to go off the roster for the best candidate.  

Yoenis Cespedes is currently on the Final Vote ballot and has accumulated the second most WAR among left fielders behind Gordon.  Cespedes won’t get a chance to win a third Home Run Derby title, but giving him the starting nod would provide a platform to feature his power for the Cincinnati crowd nonetheless:

Figuring out Stanton’s replacement is a little trickier.  Former MVP Andrew McCutchen has the biggest name and most popularity, but he has a bit of an offensive dip this season.  The honor should probably go to one of three young breakout stars: Joc Pederson, Starling Marte or A.J. Pollock.  Pederson’s power and status as a big-market star make him the most marketable, but would Bochy pick a Los Angeles Dodger to start?

None of this will have an impact on the game’s outcome, of course, but it’s a good way to evaluate the reputations and resumes of baseball’s biggest stars.  And though home-field advantage throughout the World Series controversially remains on the line, those status evaluations are the most interesting part of the All-Star selection process.

Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Voting for the 2015 MLB All-Star Game concluded Thursday night, but the league doesn’t reveal its final tally until Sunday.  And given the hullabaloo surrounding the potential results of this year’s fan vote with the American League ballot, there should be more interest than usual in a typically academic unveiling.

Kansas City Royals aside, there were plenty of tight races and deserving starters sitting on the outside when the last updates were released before voting closed.  With half the season in the books, we’ve reached the point in the season where sample size is no longer an issue in evaluating individual head-to-head resumes.

Taking a look at the last June 29 updates via MLB Communications, let’s highlight some of the most intriguing storylines to keep an eye on for the vote reveal.

Tightest Race: AL Designated Hitter

Mathematically, the National League third base race between Matt Carpenter and Todd Frazier is actually closer.  But Frazier made up plenty of ground in the last update as Carpenter continued his June swoon; the Cardinals leadoff hitter finished the month with a horrific .190 average.  Thus, the more interesting race may actually be at designated hitter between Seattle’s Nelson Cruz and Kansas City’s Kendrys Morales.

Along with Josh Donaldson, Cruz helped displace part of the Royals’ monopoly on the starting lineup (though Kansas City still has five starters at the moment).  On his third team in as many years, the 35-year-old has been an invaluable source of right-handed power for a largely disappointing Mariners squad.  Cruz’s 20 home runs rank fourth in the AL, while his .248 isolated power ranks seventh in the league.

Morales’ value has largely stemmed from the traditionalists’ favorite stat, RBI.  The DH successor to longtime fan favorite Billy Butler, Morales has driven in 51 runs, seventh-most in the AL, and has rebounded well from a lackluster and injury-riddled 2014 campaign.

However, Cruz has posted twice as much WAR (1.8 to 0.9) because of ballpark adjustments.  His 158 weighted runs created (wRC+) ranks fourth in the AL and sits 23 percent better than Morales’ 125 wRC+ mark.  Cruz is the rightful new leader, and the guess is that his lead widened by the end of the voting.

Prediction: Cruz starts

Underrated Race: NL Outfield 

MVP favorite Bryce Harper is the run-away leading vote-getter in the National League outfield, with the largest lead of any player in the senior circuit.  However, major injuries have thinned out the next three places behind Harper, with Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Holliday and Nori Aoki all sidelined for the summer classic.

Consequently, there’s a host of candidates who could swoop in and snag one of those final spots.  The prior fifth- and sixth-place outfielders were Andrew McCutchen and Joc Pederson, respectively.  The former MVP McCutchen will likely get in on reputation and likability, but the Pirate has seen a sizable dip in power and batting rate stats this season.  Though his 142 wRC+ is certainly nothing to sneeze at, the fans probably got it right by initially excluding him from a starting spot.

Pederson is a more interesting case.  The potential Rookie of the Year has garnered poor batting average and strikeout totals, but with 20 home runs and a whopping .281 ISO (fifth in the NL), the Dodgers outfielder has quickly become a cult hero.  Coupled with excellent defense, only Harper and Stanton have accumulated more WAR among NL outfielders.  Even without injuries, Pederson was always a deserving starter.

Among the players outside the current starters, Jason Heyward and Starling Marte have supplied the best all-around value of power, average, baserunning and defense.  Justin Upton’s bounce-back power season in San Diego has also garnered some deserved attention, which should make McCutchen and Pederson sweat out the final results.

Prediction: McCutchen and Pederson join Harper as starters

Biggest Potential Snub: Jason Kipnis, Cleveland, 2B

Fans of schadenfreude and general chaos will want to see replacement-level Royals second baseman Omar Infante nab the starting spot over Jose Altuve, but in reality, neither comes close to deserving the starting nod.  The Indians’ leadoff hitter has put together one of the league’s best bounce-back campaigns this season after a lackluster 2014, and has been arguably the league’s best pure hitter for two months:

Though his .392 BABIP is surely unsustainable moving forward, Kipnis‘ .344 average doesn’t figure to dip too severely because of his revamped plate approach.  The fourth-year pro has cut his strikeout rate from 18.0 percent in 2014 to 13.6 percent this season, while his walk rate has risen to career high 10 percent.

But with barely half the votes of Infante and Altuve, there’s no shot for Kipnis to claim the starting spot he’s earned.  He will get the deserving All-Star nod as a reserve, and if Altuve can pass Infante, the AL will at least have a respectable starter.  Altuve‘s average has come down, but he’s still posting a high on-base and fielding well as the face of baseball’s most inspiring Cinderella story thus far.

Nevertheless, with Miguel Cabrera having regained the AL first base lead over Eric Hosmer, the choice for biggest snub is fairly simple.  At the very least, Kipnis can take solace that this snub may actually do more to put him on the map for a possible redemption if he can post a similar season in 2016.  

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Although the winter meetings allowed numerous MLB teams to cross some names off their holiday shopping lists, plenty of big gifts still await.  Even with superstars like Jon Lester and Pablo Sandoval signing with new teams, the league has yet to see a resulting domino effect, and other top-tier players have yet to find new (or old) teams.

Many free agents are still up in the air.  Plenty of season-changing talent, especially among starting pitchers, still exists for title-hungry teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and others to sweep up.  

Even though the pace of signings has slowed to a crawl, that does not mean the rumor mill is not constantly spinning.  Using information derived from The Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo in his invaluable “Sunday Notebook” series, let’s look at recent updates on some of the biggest available names and speculate where their ultimate destinations may be.

Giants and Sox in on Shields?

With Lester off the market, James Shields has established himself as one of the biggest names available, as the small-market Kansas City Royals are unlikely to retain the ace who spurred their surprising World Series run.  Cafardo suggests that a few big-market teams are still interested in Shields:

The final Shields numbers are expected to be close to the five years and $110 million remaining (if the option is picked up) on the Cole Hamels deal, according to one major league source who was privy to Shields’s demands. The Giants and Red Sox are in the picture, and the Yankees may be another suitor.

That would be well below the six-year, $155 million pact Lester inked with the Chicago Cubs, but one also commensurate with Shields’ level of performance.  Though Shields has eclipsed the 200-innings mark in a remarkable eight consecutive seasons, he has never checked in as more than a 4.5 WAR player, and his 2015 Steamer projection, via FanGraphs, projects him as a 3.0 WAR player.

Those numbers still make Shields a very valuable player, equivalent to Brandon McCarthy and Nathan Eovaldi last season.  But it spells more of a No. 3 starter rather than the ace that his contract demands would imply, and as Shields approaches his age-33 season, it is a given that the contract will sour in the end.

Of course, signing a big free-agent pitcher is about the present, not the albatross the contract will eventually become.  In that instance, the Giants look like a slightly better fit for Shields than the Red Sox, who already have innings-eaters but no top-of-the-rotation anchor.  San Francisco already has Madison Bumgarner, and when adding Shields to a rotation that includes Matt Cain, Jake Peavy and Tim Hudson, the Giants would trot out an extremely durable and consistent group that will almost surely produce above-average numbers.

Scherzer Staying Put?

Whereas Shields is in demand on the open market, the picture is murkier on Scherzer.  His $200 million asking price has thinned out the market and created a holding pattern.  Given that Scherzer is a Scott Boras client, it’s not difficult to envision this process dragging out.

However, unlike with Lester or Shields, no team has established clear interest in the Detroit Tigers ace.  ESPN’s Jim Bowden (subscription required) recently pegged the Tigers as 2-to-1 favorites to retain Scherzer, and Cafardo’s sources have echoed that sentiment:

The more you ask baseball executives about where Scherzer will end up, the more the answers come back Detroit. The Tigers know and like Scherzer, and the feeling is they need him after trading Rick Porcello to the Red Sox, and obtaining Alfredo Simon from the Reds and Shane Greene from the Yankees. The Tigers’ rotation is missing a significant pitcher (you can’t call Justin Verlander that anymore, and David Price may not re-sign). 

The Tigers have been unafraid to shell out huge long-term dollars to keep their own stars, as evidenced by the Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander deals.  Moreover, Detroit’s once-formidable rotation has collapsed amid Verlander’s decline, the trades of Doug Fister and Rick Porcello and Anibal Sanchez’s injury history.  Scherzer produced over 2.0 more WAR and pitched nearly 15 innings more than the second-best Tigers starter last year, effectively carrying a staggering Detroit pitching staff down the stretch.

Quite simply, the Tigers probably need Scherzer more than any other deep-pocketed contender, even the Yankees.  Until someone really gets serious about Scherzer, he’s Detroit’s free agent to lose.

Buzz on Asdrubal

Given the scarcity of well-rounded middle infielders, Asdrubal Cabrera would ostensibly be a very valuable commodity on the open market.  However, Cafardo reports that Cabrera has needed to market himself to teams, and the 29-year-old may end up taking a one-year deal:

There’s a lot of dialogue with teams, according to agent Alan Nero, but nothing has come together yet. Cabrera is willing to move to second base, which would be beneficial to him. There’s been speculation concerning the Yankees with Prado gone. Cabrera could take a one-year deal somewhere and reestablish himself.

It’s a puzzling development given that both Sports Illustrated and CBS ranked Cabrera among their 15 best free agents at the start of the offseason.  He’s unlikely to come close to ever repeating his 2011 power breakout, when he swatted 25 home runs and produced a career-high 3.6 WAR and 16.3 added runs on offense.  And Cabrera has also always had a negative glove, which will likely necessitate a move from of shortstop as he ages.

But he already possesses the versatility to handle second, as he demonstrated during his stint with the Washington Nationals last season, and his regular-season numbers make him an above-average bat.  The average slash line of major league shortstops last year was .251/.306/.363, almost exactly in line with Cabrera’s .251/.316/.397 career average.

Considering that playoff contenders were trotting out the likes of Jean Segura and Elvis Andrus last year, Cabrera seems like a nice replacement for most teams.  The Yankees or Phillies, both of whom lost franchise icons at shortstop this offseason, could represent future suitors for the ex-Cleveland Indian.

*All stats via Fangraphs.  

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With the MLB trade deadline approaching in two days, speculation surrounding the biggest names on the market figures to reach a fever pitch shortly. With tight races in five of the six divisions, the plethora of teams in contention should create a seller’s market for the organizations that have decided to build for the future.

Though the trade deadline has brought duds in recent years, this summer offers the promise of marquee All-Stars potentially on the move. Of course, not all the noise will result in tangible action. But as the Oakland Athletics showed when they acquired Jeff Samardzija, a team willing to pay for immediate dividends can drastically alter the complexion of the pennant race.

So which teams could follow Oakland’s footsteps and forge a consequential move of their own? Digging through the noise, here are a few rumors surrounding former All-Stars that could come to fruition over the next 48 hours.

Tulo in Beantown?

Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has been the biggest name available for the past few weeks, but seemingly nothing imminent has emerged. However, The Boston Globe‘s Pete Abraham reported of a source indicating Tulowitzki’s willingness to move north:

As splashy as that move sounds, Tulowitzki would be a bizarre acquisition for the Red Sox. Boston general manager Ben Cherington recently waved the white flag on his team’s title defense after a five-game losing streak against AL East opponents. Moreover, with Xander Bogaerts openly pining to return to shortstop, acquiring Tulowitzki would likely alienate the Sox’s brightest young star.

There’s also the matter of Tulowitzki being currently on the disabled list with a hip flexor strain. For all his talents, the shortstop has a checkered injury history, and the Red Sox demonstrated a refusal to commit big money to a similar player when they allowed Jacoby Ellsbury to walk in the offseason.

Tulowitzki seems highly unlikely to move anywhere at all. It’s unclear whether or not the Rockies will return to contender status while Tulo remains in his prime, but Colorado does not appear inclined to move the face of their franchise.

Price Staying or Going?

Even with a recent winning streak, the Tampa Bay Rays remain 7.5 games out of first place in the AL East and have five teams ahead of them in the race for the second wild-card berth. Thus, ace starter David Price remains firmly on the market.

The winning streak would seemingly have diminished the chances of Price moving, considering the day-to-day snap judgments front offices must make about buying or selling. However, The Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo relayed an opinion from one anonymous scout who believed that Price would still move:

‘I still think when push comes to shove, the Rays will deal him,’ opined one National League special adviser. ‘They’ve come a long way to get to this point and they’re still five or six games under .500. How much longer can they sustain that? So it’s a tough call and you don’t want to be perceived as waving the white flag, but there’s demand for him.’

It’s unclear who would pay the exorbitant price (no pun intended) the Rays have demanded. The Los Angeles Dodgers have long been linked to Price, and Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi piggybacked on the speculation of Price moving to the NL West:

But the Dodgers could find themselves pursuing Lester. Given the Red Sox’s clearer intentions to sell, as well as Lester likely coming with a lower price tag, the Dodgers could very well abandon their pursuit of Price. 

A darkhorse team like the Seattle Mariners or Chicago Cubs could still swipe Price away. However, given how difficult it is for the Rays to contend on their shoestring budget, retaining a modicum of postseason hope might be the wisest route.

Papelbon’s Ultimatum

The Philadelphia Phillies appear on the verge of removing themselves from delusions of contending and selling off their veteran roster. Veteran closer Jonathan Papelbon would seem like a prime candidate to go, but according to the New York Post‘s Joel Sherman, the 33-year-old is also ready to exercise his no-trade clause:

The Phillies’ hurdles in trading Jonathan Papelbon only grow higher and higher.

And then there is this: Papelbon has a no-trade clause and has let the Phillies know he will not accept a trade to a place where he will be a setup man or in a shared closer situation. It is closing or nothing.

The Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers loomed as two contenders in need of bullpen relief, but both have ameliorated those issues with Huston Street and Joakim Soria, respectively. Moreover, with four earned runs allowed in his past five appearances, Papelbon is not making himself particularly enticing to scouts:

The Dodgers (again) have been connected to Papelbon in the past according to Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles (h/t NJ.com’s Randy Miller), and the desire for bullpen help remains in Los Angeles. CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported that the Phillies would be willing to eat some of the $18 million remaining on Papelbon’s contract to facilitate a deal. However, given the Dodgers’ bottomless pockets, that is simply chump change that would do little to pique their interest.

If the Phillies are genuine about rebuilding, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Chase Utley would probably return enough to jumpstart their uninspiring farm system. Unfortunately, all three have no-trade clauses, making significant change an unlikely proposition for the last-place Phillies.

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As MLB teams head out of the All-Star break, the trade deadline will serve as the make-or-break point for plenty of clubs on the fringes of playoff contention.  The two weeks before the July 31 deadline should bring lots of intrigue and action as teams vacillate between buying and selling on a seemingly daily basis.

Because of the surprises in the standings throughout the league, plenty of teams that harbored postseason or even World Series aspirations at the beginning of the year could turn into sellers shortly.  While it’s unclear how much talent will actually move this month, the available players are enough to create more excitement than baseball fans have seen in years.

For those looking for the most recent scoops on the biggest names, check out the latest rumors surrounding players who could potentially shift the pennant race this summer.

Contenders for Price?

David Price will move out of Tampa eventually.  But with the Rays’ recent surge, the postseason is no longer a total improbability in the mediocre AL East, even as Tampa sits 9.5 games behind the Baltimore Orioles.

The fact that Price is still under team control in 2015 could allow the Rays to wait until the offseason to deal the former Cy Young Award winner.  As ESPN’s Jim Bowden reports, Tampa would command a haul superior to what the Cubs received for Jeff Samardzija (subscription required):

The impression teams are getting is that if the Rays manage to get back in the playoff chase, they will hang on to Price, and if they don’t, they will trade him only if they get a better package than what the Chicago Cubs got for Jeff Samardzija, which eliminates a number of possible suitors. 

The Rays would be looking for an elite prospect and a top prospect in exchange for Price, and there are only a few organizations that have that type of package to offer, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, Cubs and Minnesota Twins, and the latter two teams aren’t really a fit for Price. (Both the Cubs and Twins have been adding prospects, not trading them.) 

It’s not unreasonable for the Rays to set their expectations high, as Price is a superior pitcher to Samardzija.  Even though the latter has experienced a breakout year, Price has produced more wins above replacement (3.0 to 2.4).

Still, it will be difficult for any team to match what the Cubs received for Samardzija in Addison Russell.  A package for Price would require a premium major league-ready prospect, such as the Dodgers’ Joc Pederson or St. Louis’ Carlos Martinez.  Even so, Price might not be willing to accept a trade unless it sends him to his preferred geographic location:

Ultimately, though Fangraphs gives the Rays just a 5.8 percent chance of reaching the postseason, they also give them the best projected record from now until the end of the season.  At the moment, Tampa seems likelier to hang onto the slim chance of surging into October rather than shutting down their window of contention.

Papelbon Going West?

Philadelphia Phillies’ general manger Ruben Amaro Jr. held onto delusions of contending headed into the season.  With his last-place Phillies at 42-53 and 10 games out of first place, however, it appears a fire sale is closer than ever to becoming reality.

One prime candidate to go would be closer Jonathan Papelbon.  The 33-year-old Papelbon does not have tremendous trade value because of his age and onerous contract.  However, at least one plugged-in reporter believes that the Los Angeles Dodgers could seek out Papelbon’s services:

It’s a bit unclear why the Dodgers would want to add Papelbon.  After a rough start, closer Kenley Jansen has rebounded to post nine consecutive scoreless appearances.  Moreover, his .391 BABIP and 1.87 FIP suggests some poor luck that will eventually correct itself and bring his 3.49 ERA down.

Nonetheless, Papelbon could be interested in joining the NL West leaders.  According to The Philadelphia Inquirer‘s Matt Gelb, Papelbon recently hinted at frustration over the team’s losing and a willingness to accept a trade to a contender:

Some guys want to stay on a losing team? That’s mind-boggling to me. I think that’s a no-brainer.

You know, I came here for a reason…and I say that because I’m with a group of guys in the bullpen that can do very special things in the future. I’ve been waiting for that, you know what I mean? It’s fun to be a part of that, it really is. We are there finally with our bullpen. So that aspect of it would kind of [stink] to leave. But at the same time, winning is the cure-all of cure-alls.

Papelbon has had his best season for the Phillies, posting a 1.21 ERA thus far.  However, there are numerous alarms that regression is imminent—an 85.7 percent strand rate well above his career average, an overall increase in walks and decrease in strikeouts, a .232 BABIP that is 45 points below his career average and the fact that he has yet to allow a home run even in the bandbox of Citizens Bank Park. 

Still, someone is bound to take the leap based on Papelbon’s experience and reputation as a big-time playoff performer after his time in Boston.  The Dodgers don’t have a clear need, but they could at least absorb his salary without so much as blinking.

Bullpen Help for Angels?

The Los Angeles Angels have surged to the second-best record in baseball and are just 1.5 games behind the Oakland Athletics for the AL West lead.  With the A’s having made their big splash already, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports that the Angels could be readying an answer:

Street has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise grisly season for the San Diego Padres, whose historically impotent offense has the team floundering at 41-54.  Though his sterling 1.09 ERA has been aided by a .195 BABIP, he has also increased his strikeouts, reduced his walks and induced worse contact.  A slight correction is likely coming, but Street is not turning into a pumpkin this summer.

For his part, Street appears tired of floundering on poor teams.  The 30-year-old has not pitched on a playoff team since the 2009 Colorado Rockies, and according to the Los Angeles Times‘ Bill Shaiken, Street would welcome the opportunity to play in Anaheim:

‘I would love it,’ he said.

Street cited the chance to ‘play with guys like Albert Pujols and Mike Trout’ as well as to play for Manager Mike Scioscia. Street broke into the major leagues with the Oakland Athletics from 2005-08, when the Angels won the American League West three times in four years.

The Halos have had bullpen issues for much of the season, a bullpen that ranks 27th in WAR.  Even with Joe Smith’s recent emergence to stabilize the closer position, Los Angeles ranks just 18th in bullpen WAR over the last 30 days.  The trio of Street, Smith and Kevin Jepsen would secure the final three innings for the Angels, turning arguably their greatest weakness into a strength.

The fickle year-to-year performance of relievers makes it harder to construct lockdown bullpens at the beginning of the season, but the trade-off is that acquiring help during the season is easier.  Acquiring Street and perhaps upgrading the back of the starting rotation would leave the Angels among the small handful of favorites for the World Series.

*All stats via Fangraphs.com.

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