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Trips to Miami have been less than stellar for the Washington Nationals, and through the first two of a three-game set against the Marlins, nothing has changed.

The Nats blew leads on consecutive nights and were up against Florida ace Josh Johnson in the series finale. A Marlins’ sweep looked about as likely as Pudge Rodriguez hitting into a double play.

Somehow the Nats kept pace with the big hurler, driving up his pitch count (translation: striking out a bunch), and forcing him out of the game after 6 innings. And wouldn’t you know it, the Nats pulled it out in 11 on a two-run jack by Adam LaRoche. 

In any other year, the Nats lose that game in devastating fashion, and they lose about seven more in a row after. Things are different this year.

Will it result in 85 wins?

No.

But you won’t see any of those 10-game losing streaks this year, and that’s a start.

Let’s get on with it…

Recap

The Nats did well to split their three games this week after dropping the first two. Tuesday, poor defense led to an extra-innings loss to the Fish. The Nats blew a four-run lead Wednesday, but came back to beat Florida in extras on Thursday. On Friday, Pudge came through with a two-RBI single to beat the Mets. New York came back Friday with a win to set up the rubber match Sunday, which the Nationals took in 11 innings.

Game of the Week

Thursday’s 5-3 win over the Marlins

As I mentioned above, if the Nationals lose this game, they go into a tail-spin.

The fact that they won on a day where Josh Johnson was starting, and the Marlins got out to a early two-run lead makes it all the better. Jayson Werth’s solo shot to cut the lead was huge, not only for Werth’s confidence—which has to be suffering after a tough start to the year—but also the Nationals season. Up to that point, the Nats had yet to get a hit off of Johnson, but that hit showed them they could score off the Cy Young contender.

Player of the Week

Tyler Clippard (4 G, 6.1 IP, 8 K, 1 H, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA)

Let’s ignore the fact that Jim Riggleman is running this guy into the ground already (6.1 innings in a week?) and just focus on how brilliant Clippard has been. Whenever the Nats need a strikeout, Clippard gets it. Without Clippard, I’m not sure the Nats win a game this week. He is easily the MVP of the team through two weeks.

Dud of the Week

Mike Morse (2-14, 2 BB, 2 RBI, 4 K)

I had high hopes for Morse coming into the season, as did every Nationals fan after his amazing performance in spring training, but it appears Morse left his swing in Viera. With Zimmerman facing a possible stint on the DL, it is imperative for Morse to find his swing and fast.

This Week on a Scale of 1 to 10

I’m giving the game this week an eight. Wins in Florida are not easy to come by for the Nats, and coming back after a disappointing loss Saturday to take the series in New York was huge for the team’s confidence going forward. And they’re going to need it with Zimmerman possibly out for a couple of weeks.

Random Diatribe of the Week

The Nationals bullpen has been a revelation in 2011. Unfortunately, they may not be around for much longer if they continue on this pace. Drew Storen and Clippard have combined to pitch 15 innings in only nine games.

The Nationals have to find another arm out of the pen they can trust. The Nationals can officially call up players they sent down to start the season on Sunday, which means Colin Balester, who pitched well enough to make the club out of camp, may be on the way.

Henry Rodriguez, who hit triple-digits on the gun last year with Oakland, pitched well in his minor league rehab assignment. Help may be on the way and the Nats need it.

NL East Power Rankings

1. Philadelphia Phillies

If the Phillies ever vacate this spot, I’d be surprised. The Phils overcame a six-run defeat at the hands of the Mets to reel off four out of five to end the week.

2. Atlanta Braves

They’re last in the standings, but that will happen when you play the Phillies. There’s no doubt, they’re No. 2 with a bullet

3. Washington Nationals

The Nats, Mets and Marlins have all played each other with each team coming out of it 3-3. The Nats go on top because they played every game on the road.

4. Florida Marlins

Hanley Ramirez has to start playing like a franchise player if the Marlins expect to flirt with 80 wins.

5. New York Mets

A promising start to the week went up in flames as the Mets lost four out of their last five to end the week.

Up next for the Nats: Jayson Werth and the Nats get their first crack at the Phillies before the Marlins come to DC for the weekend.

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After the Washington Nationals’ 11-2 humbling at the hands of the Atlanta Braves, Ryan Zimmerman promised a better effort from the club on Tuesday. Then Zimmerman went out and backed up that promise.

Despite Zimmerman’s tremendous effort, a lack of clutch hitting and a tenth inning error by Jayson Werth allowed the Marlins to win 3-2 on a walk-off hit by Donnie Murphy.

In the third inning, Florida starter Anibal Sanchez threw Zimmerman a 1-0 fast ball that the third baseman rocketed over the left field wall to put the Nationals up 2-1.

Washington was able to maintain that lead until pinch hitter Greg Dobbs drove in Donnie Murphy on sac fly given up by Tyler Clippard. The earned run went to Jason Marquis, who surrendered a double to Murphy to lead off the seventh inning.

Marquis pitched well enough to win, giving up two earned runs in 6.1 innings of work. The good start has to feel good for Marquis, who struggled in 2010 with injuries. Marquis lived in the bottom of the strike zone, getting the Marlins to ground out all night long.

The Nats continue to wear out opposing starting pitchers with patience. Sanchez threw 105 pitches in only 5.2 of work, but surrendered only two earned runs.

The Nationals stranded 12 on Tuesday night, a problem they’ve had all season. It could be the product of the Nationals unusual lineup. If the mediocrity with runners on base continues to be a problem, Jim Riggleman has to move Jayson Werth to the third slot in the order.

It would certainly give Werth more RBI opportunities than he is getting now. Nationals’ lead-off hitters have reached base just once in four games; that’s not how you win games.

Speaking of the lead-off spot, it was revealed Tuesday that Danny Espinosa would take over for Ian Desmond at the top of the order. Desmond will move down to seventh. Credit has to go to Riggleman for making this move as soon as he did and not being stubborn.

For more Nats coverage, visit nationalsbaseblog.blogspot.com/

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Opening Day 2011 is less than a week away, and the Washington Nationals have yet to officially name their starting center fielder. Unofficially, the Washington Post is reporting that Rick Ankeil will get the nod, essentially banishing Nyjer Morgan to Syracuse to start the season.

Apparently the Nationals have chosen power over speed, which does not exactly jive with what they have been doing in the offseason. If this was the plan from the beginning, couldn’t they have kept Josh Willingham and played either Jayson Werth or Mike Morse in center?

I know Morgan had a terrible season in 2010, but Rick Ankeil actually played worse.

(And for those of you who aren’t statistically inclined, bare with me.)

Morgan sported a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of .9; Ankeil’s WAR was at .7, which basically means that Morgan contributed .9 more wins to his team compared to a “average replacement player” (think Willie Harris) and Ankiel contributed .7.

Defensively, Morgan is a far better player than Ankeil. In 2010, Ankiel posted a UZR of -.5 compared to Morgan’s 3.0. For those of you not familiar with the UZR stat, that means Ankiel is a slightly below average defender, and Morgan is an above average defender. In 2009, Morgan posted a UZR of 27.6, which is the equivalent to the Plastic Man with a glove.

Center field is one of the most important defensive positions, and the Nats have chosen to put a liability there. And for what? A marginal offensive player. For a player who has hit 17 home runs combined in the last two seasons.

Offensively, Rick Ankiel is the better player, but only slightly. In 2010, he posted a better OBP than Morgan, but just slightly–.321 to .319. But a lot of that can be attributed to luck, or lack thereof.

Morgan’s putrid seasons was made even worse by his unluckiness. Morgan’s batting average on balls put in play (BABIP) was .304, which is around the league average, but way below the average of players with the type of speed Morgan possesses. In 2008 and 2009, Morgan’s BABIP was .364 and .355, respectively.

BABIP is not a skill-based statistic. The average is around .300, for both good and bad players alike. The key is putting balls in play, and in 2010, Morgan’s contact percentage was just as high as it has been in his career: around 85 percent.

So it can be argued that Morgan’s disastrous season at the dish in 2010 may have had more to do with bad luck than bad play.

Ankiel actually posted a BABIP of .319, well above the league and his career average, and despite his luck, he hit only .253. This can be attributed to his low contact percentage (74 percent). His low contact percentage can be attributed to his poor discipline at the plate. Ankiel swings at pitches out of the zone 33.2 percent of the time. Morgan is a little more disciplined swinging at balls only 31.2 percent of the time.

In all, Morgan contributes more to the team overall, is a better defender, and a more disciplined hitter whose 2010 season may have been an unlucky aberration—at least the stats say so.

And after processing all those stats, if you are confused, it’s okay; now you know how I felt when I heard Ankiel was starting.

(Stats courtesy of fangraphs.com)

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There are essentially two schools of thought on the Washington Nationals‘ signing of Jayson Werth. he first school absolutely hates the deal and points to Werth’s age, health history, and small number of productive seasons. The other school sees the signing as a must in order for the Nats to establish themselves as offseason contenders.

At the time, I found myself somewhere in the middle. I understood the Nationals‘ thinking, but I didn’t necessarily agree with it.

But I really did not know much about Werth at that point. Sure, I knew he was a good player, both offensively and defensively, but I knew very little about him as a competitor. To me, he always seemed a little too JD Drewish; I never saw any sign of intensity.

After reading articles about Werth and seeing interviews with the $126-million man, I have realized how wrong my perception was.

You can see it in his eyes. Werth has read all of those columns bashing the signing, he has heard all the naysayers who say he prefers money over winning, and he is chomping at the bit to prove everybody wrong.

Best of all, Werth, like all Nationals fans, hates the Phillies.

Isn’t that what sports fans want? A guy who cares a much as we do. You can’t say that Werth does not care; he wants to beat the Phillies just as badly as the fans do.

You can’t overpay for a guy like that—a guy who combines talent with a competitive fire.

You don’t have to worry about giving a guy like Werth that much money. He is going to bring it, no matter how many zeros are on his paycheck.

And doesn’t the fact that the Nationals took the guy from the best team in our division add even more value to Werth? You’re not only adding to your team’s talent, but subtracting talent from a team you play 18 times a year. No one seems to be mentioning that.

But people are mentioning that Werth has never tallied more than 100 RBI in a season or hit more than 30 home runs. Doesn’t that go against everything we have seen since the post-steroid era? Werth is good in the field and possesses one of the better arms in all of baseball. He is a disciplined hitter who sees a lot of pitches. He gets on base, and he scores a lot of runs (204 over the last two seasons).

He brings so much to the table, and takes nothing off of it. He may not be the prototypical five-tool player, but he certainly has all five tools in the bag.

And, the best part is, at the end of the day, it’s not my money.

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Every year you hear it from all 30 teams: This spring training is different.

Washington Nationals’ fans have been hearing it for five seasons, but in 2011 it may be the truth.

The team is loaded with bona fide major leaguers. There will be no Matt Chicos or Chris Snellings making the team. Garrett Mock, who won the fifth spot in the pitching rotation last spring, won’t sniff it this spring.

For the first time in their brief Washington history, the Nats will actually have to cut a major league-caliber player.

Just take a look at the catcher position, which is absolutely loaded with young talent. Wilson Ramos is 23, Derrick Norris is 22, and Jesus Flores is 27. Ramos is the best defender, Norris is the best hitter, and Flores, if healthy, may be the best overall. 

Two of them will not make the team. While that may be bad for them, it is good for the Nationals.

The competition for the fifth spot in the rotation, however, is definitely be the most important.

After the first week of games, it looks to be a two-horse race.

Ross Detwiller, with his new mechanics, has been the best pitcher in camp, and if he can keep this pace, there is no way Jim Riggleman will be able to keep him off the 25 man roster. 

Tom Gorzelanny, the odds-on favorite to win the spot coming into camp, has been impressive as well, and it doesn’t seem like he’ll go down with out a fight.

Everywhere you look on the Nationals’ roster, there is competition, which has pushed the players to another level of intensity that the team has not seen since coming to Washington.

I’m telling you, it’s different.

Results

• NYM, W 5-3
• FLA, W 8-4
• @STL, L 5-7
• ATL, L 4-6
• @NYY, W 10-8
• ATL, L 0-5

Player of the Week

Mike Morse: .462/.467/1.00, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB

Morse’s hot start has put him far ahead of his competition for the starting left field gig.

Most Disappointing Player of the Week

Nyjer Morgan

Morgan cannot continue to play this badly and expect to keep the starting spot in center. With Roger Bernadina off to a good start, Morgan has to be looking in the rear view mirror.

Position Battles

Catcher

1. Ivan Rodriguez

Pudge would have to have a historically bad spring in order to not get the starting nod come opening day.

2. Wilson Ramos

In 4 games, Ramos has hit .500 and been solid behind the plate.

3. Jesus Flores

Flores has gotten off to a bad start at the plate, which is to be expected, but it will take a lot from Norris to supplant Flores.

4. Derrick Norris

Norris has lived up to his reputation as a good hitter, hitting .500 with a home run.

Left Field

1. Mike Morse

He has been the best offensive player in camp–maybe the best player.

2. Roger Bernadina

Bernadina looks a new player, and he has gotten off to a good start, but, unfortunately for Roger, Mike Morse is his competition.

3. Rick Ankiel

He did hit a home run, but other than that, he has been a disappointment.

5th Starter

1. Tom Gorzelanny

The only reason he has this spot is because he started in the spot and has done nothing to lose it.

2. Ross Detwiller

I’m a little partial to Detwiller, but he is nipping on Gorzelanny’s heels.

3. Yunesky Maya

The self-proclaimed Cuban kid pitched well in his first outing, building on a good winter league.

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When discussing the Washington Nationals‘ 2010 offseason, many people have focused on what the Nats did not accomplish rather than what they did. The Nationals were able to improve greatly on their defensive deficiencies while not sacrificing too much offensively. 

The Nationals were also able to strengthen an already strong bullpen by acquiring Todd Coffey, Henry Rodriguez and Cla Meredith.

Last but not least, the Nationals were able to add depth to their rotation by adding Tom Gorzelanny via trade and Chad Gaudin via free agency, not to mention re-signing workhorse Livan Hernandez.

But with all that, people were still not satisfied because of the team’s inability to acquire a top-of-the-line starting pitcher.

No, without a true No. 1 starting pitcher, the Nationals will not contend for a playoff spot, but would they have if they had landed a Zack Greinke or Matt Garza?

Probably not.

So really, it could be seen as a plus that the Nats didn’t get one of those arms this offseason.

Behind Cliff Lee, the pitching available in free agency was thinner than Ross Detwiler. Theoretically, with a high demand (the demand for pitching is always high) and lower-than-usual supply, the price for pitching was unusually high this past offseason.

Sometimes it’s better to bide your time and wait for a better deal to come along; this offseason was an example of just that.

Now, being a Nationals fan myself, I understand those who want to win now after five seasons that were all but over before Memorial Day. It’s hard to accept gradual progress.

But take a look at last year’s World Series teams, both of which were considered surprises and failed to make the playoffs the previous season:

Those teams built themselves up gradually, from a losing record to a pennant in three years.

In 2011, the Nationals should be at a similar level as the 2007 Giants and Rangers with wins in the low-to-mid-70’s. If they continue on that same timeline, they should be ready to contend by 2013 or 2014, when Strasburg will be 100 percent recovered from Tommy John surgery, and Bryce Harper will have a year of major league experience under his belt.

That means the Nationals have two or three offseasons to add non-homegrown talent. Homegrown talent is cheap, but it takes a long time to develop, and the cornerstones of the Nationals’ organization are undeveloped homegrown talent.

Knowing that, why would you want the Nationals to spend money now when the team won’t be ready to contend until then?

In other words, why waste money paying players in 2011 and 2012, when the earliest the Nats will compete is 2013?

Which brings up another point: there is no need to rush Harper through the minors or Strasburg through rehab, especially in 2011.

You can bet that if Harper hits around .300 and slaps around four home runs in Spring Training, the fans will be clamoring for the teenage phenom to be on the Opening Day roster. Even if he proves to be the best player on the team, Harper still needs time in the minors. He needs time in a situation where instruction and development—not winning—are the focus, if he is to reach his full potential.

A year in the minors could be the difference between Harper being an All-Star, and Harper being an all-time great.

In late August, when reports of Strasburg’s full recovery start to come out, fans will be clamoring for his return to the mound, but the wise move would be to keep him off major league mounds for the entirety of 2011. Why put unneeded stress on Strasburg’s golden arm instead of letting him work his way back in the low-pressure situations of the minor leagues?

A year away from the majors could be the difference between Strasburg being Mark Pryor or Strasburg being an even better Josh Johnson.

As for the Nationals team as a whole, the same can be said.

Patience will prove to be a virtue. If the Nationals are around .500 come August, fans may be clamoring for the front office to make a bold move in order to make a playoff push. Such a move would be unwise, even if it is the popular move. But in 2013 when the Nationals are playing meaningful baseball in September, it will all be worth it.

Patience.

It’s the difference between the Nationals being the fourth-place New York Mets, and the Nationals being the World Champion San Francisco Giants.

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Since the franchise’s move to the Nation’s capital in 2005, the Washington Nationals have had relatively quiet off-seasons. In 2010, the Nats bucked that trend in a big way.

Gone are Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham and their unsightly attempts at defense. In are the smooth-fielding Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche.

If Ian Desmond and Nyjer Morgan can play up to their potential defensively, Washington should be one of the better defensive teams in the NL.

With the additions of Rick Ankiel, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Matt Stairs to Mike Morse and Wilson Ramos, the Nats may finally have a bench they can count on.

The National’s have had bullpen problems since that magical 2005 season, but 2011 looks to be the end of that nightmarish run.

The Nats’ already lethal triumvirate of Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, and Sean Burnett has been bolstered by the arrival of the flame-throwing Henry Rodriguez, who seems to have solved the control problems that plagued him in Oakland.

And don’t underestimate the recoveries of Jordan Zimmermann and Jason Marquis. After missing nearly all of last year with injuries, the two talented hurlers could be like found money in 2011.

If Livan Hernandez and John Lannan can pick up where they left off in 2010, the Nationals may have one of the deepest staffs in all of baseball.

Unfortunately, those are gigantic ifs.

For all the moves that Nationals did make, there was just as many that they failed to get done.

The team still lacks a top of the line starting pitcher, despite the best efforts of GM Mike Rizzo. And the Nationals will struggle to fill the power void left by big Adam Dunn.

Make no mistake, while the Nationals will be improved, they will still struggle to win 80 games in 2011.

But it should be fun to watch, despite the absence of a Mr. Strasburg. But fear not, he’ll be back in 2012—with his friend Bryce.

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If you have been following the Washington Nationals’ offseason, you are aware that the team has now entered Phase Two.

If not, here is an explanation of what exactly Phase Two entails by Nats GM Mike Rizzo from Jayson Werth’s introductory press conference: “It kind of exemplifies phase two of the Washington Nationals’ process. Phase one was scouting and player development, building the farm system. Now it’s the time to go to the second phase and really compete for division titles and championships.”

Phase Two started with a bang—a $126 million bang, at that.

Unfortunately, it ended with a dud. As shocking and exciting as the Jayson Werth signing was, the Nationals’ front office has to be disappointed with their failure to find a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, an offseason goal set by Washington’s brain trust.

Again and again the Nationals’ targets landed elsewhere, and the team was forced to settle on a trade for Tom Gorzelanny. While Gorzelanny may not be the ace Washington was looking for, he will provide the Nats with an extra arm in case of an injury, a luxury the Nats have not had since the move to Washington.

The Nats failure to land a front-line starter may have actually been a blessing in disguise. After Cliff Lee, the 2010 crop of free agent pitchers was relatively weak, and overpaying—whether it be in the form of money or prospects—may have stunted the teams development.

As the saying goes, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither were the 1927 Yankees, for that matter.

With Strasburg set to return in 2012 and Bryce Harper likely to make his major league debut in the same year, it would be foolish for the Nationals to put all their eggs in one offseason’s basket, especially an offseason preceding a transition year, which the 2011 season will be for the club.

The goal of any offseason should be to improve the team, and the Nationals have done that. Will it manifest itself in an improvement on last year’s 69 wins? I don’t know, but the franchise is in a better place than it was this time last year, that is for sure.

Yes, Washington overpaid for Jayson Werth, but they had to. And the effects of that deal will be felt for offseasons to come.

One, the Nationals obviously have a good relationship with Scott Boras, who represents some of the game’s biggest stars, which may give them the inside lane on his clients in the future.

Two, the Nationals are now officially players in the offseason—exemplified by the rumors that the Nats were close to signing the crown jewel of the offseason, Cliff Lee.

Lastly, the Nats’ front office has now shown that they are willing to spend, which will help keep players like Ryan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg—a Boras client—in Washington.

In Part 2—or should I say Phase 2—we’ll look at more of the Nationals offseason moves and their impact on the 2011 Nats.

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