Kuzul

Writer’s Note: This piece was written one day after the Braves’ 5-4 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, May 13th, a game in which Dan Uggla struck out three times with runners in scoring position—twice with runners on third and once to end the game, leaving the potential game tying runner stranded on second base. Some baseball fans choose to not pay attention to WPA because they say it’s not an effective way to measure a player, but, for those who do, Uggla’s was -.392 that night.

Sounds a little like another former All-Star that was traded to the Braves and couldn’t hit a pitch to save his life, doesn’t it?

Is it too early for a Nate McLouth comparison? Maybe not. Uggla is painfully close to breaking McLouth’s horrid .190 batting average from last season, while McLouth is reaching base on a nightly basis.

That’s a good sign for Uggla’s 2012 season, but what about this one?

To start the season, Uggla told Braves fans that they shouldn’t expect much from him in the month of April, as he never performs well at the start of the season.

Okay, we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, he is a two-time All-Star and former Silver Slugger Award winner.

But last I checked, the calendar has changed to May and Uggla’s batting average is still going down. After starting in both games for the Braves’ old-fashioned doubleheader against the Brewers on May 4th, Uggla managed to pull his batting average up to .218.

True, .218 is nothing spectacular, but it doesn’t start with a one or a zero so Braves fans will take it.

But now, after their win against the Phillies on Saturday, May 14th, a game in which Uggla went 0-2, he is batting .196 and is almost a guaranteed out.

Unless he gets hit by a pitch (which is how he reached base in Saturday’s game). In fact, Uggla is swinging and missing at pitches that aren’t even close.

In striking out against pitcher Ryan Madson in the game on Friday the 13th, Uggla swung at a ball in the dirt and so far outside that it became painfully obvious to everyone watching that he is simply trying to swing at everything thrown his way in order to break out of his funk.

No one is saying the Braves should replace Uggla, especially not with his backup likely being Diory Hernandez, but he’d better find his swing quickly.

A subpar second basemen in the always tough NL East could be a death sentence for the Braves, a team many analysts picked to reach the postseason again this season.

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With much publicity surrounding the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves, the New York Mets have the opportunity to sneak up on the perennial division winners and catch them off guard, assuming certain players on their roster step up and rebound from tough, even dismal 2010 seasons.

With that in mind, here is a list of those five players that the Mets most need to overachieve this season.

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Last Friday, the Phillies announced that closer Brad Lidge would likely be joining second baseman Chase Utley on the Disabled List to begin the 2011 season.

The loss of Utley, who has yet to play a game this spring because of patellar tendinitis in his right knee, and Lidge, who is reporting discomfort in his shoulder, means the team that most picked to represent the National League in this year’s World Series is already off to an unfortunate 2011 campaign.

In addition, the loss of two of their key players has given their NL East foes the ability to pull even and possibly surpass them in the early stages of the season. Here, we will examine some possible moves the Atlanta Braves must make to take advantage of their struggling counterparts.

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After looking at Braves starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens’ numbers prior the start of last season, many would have slated him as the team’s No. 2 starter, right below Tim Hudson, after two impressive campaigns in both 2008 and 2009.

In 2008, his first season with the Braves, Jurrjens went 13-10 in 31 starts while posting a 3.68 ERA with 139 strikeouts. He improved his numbers in 2009, going 14-10 with a 2.60 ERA and 152 strikeouts.  Entering 2010, Jurrjens was a highly touted starter with a bright future for Atlanta.

But last season did not go how Jurrjens had planned.

While pitching against the Padres in their home opener on April 12, Jurrjens allowed eight earned runs on eight hits in 3.1 innings pitched. His numbers continued to fluctuate throughout the early season, as Jurrjens spent time on the Disabled List in May for a left hamstring strain. He continued an injury plagued season, missing time for his hamstring, a sore shoulder and a jammed thumb.

He ended the season with a 7-6 record and a 4.64 ERA, numbers that improved thanks in part to a strong second half of the season.

In October, Jurrjens underwent arthroscopic knee surgery to repair a minor meniscus tear he suffered in late September that caused him to miss his final three starts of the regular season, a fitting end to a season Jurrjens would surely like to forget.

Now, with the Braves entering 2011 as viable candidates for the NL East crown, Jurrjens is a key to the team’s success. If he can stay healthy and return to his 2008-2009 form, the Braves starting rotation can likely match up well with any other team in the majors, Philadelphia included.

In Jurrjens’ last outing this spring, a start against the New York Mets, he went six strong innings, getting six ground ball outs from the first six Mets he faced. His fastball was regularly hitting 89 mph, topping out just under his 92-93 mph average.

If we’ve learned anything from Jurrjens so far this spring, it’s that he seems to have regained his ability to command the lower half of the strike zone, something that will be key to his success in 2011.

Jurrjens has reported minor discomfort in his shoulders, though nothing like his pain last spring. He attributes 2011’s stiffness to too much weight lifting—something he picked up to increase his arm strength this offseason.

If the Braves plan to be successful in 2011, they’ll need Jurrjens to be a solid No. 4 starter, something he is very capable of and likely to do throughout the season. He has three scheduled starts remaining in spring training, consequently giving him more time to work out the kinks of last season. Look for Jurrjens to go 12-8 this season with an ERA just over three as the Braves win the East.

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By re-signing Eric Hinske this offseason, the Atlanta Braves brought back arguably their best bench player, as well as all but guaranteed themselves a place in the 2011 postseason.

Hinske, 33, has been to the postseason each of the last four years, each time with a different organization.

In 2007, Hinske found himself in Boston, where he played in 84 games, ending with six home runs and 21 RBI. That year, the Boston Red Sox clinched their first AL East title since 1995 and went on to win the World Series, Hinske’s first World Series ring.

That offseason, Hinske signed a minor-league contract with the Tampa Bay Rays, but earned an invite to Spring Training. After a solid performance at Spring Training, Hinske was added to the Rays’ 40-man roster in late March and was named the club’s opening day right fielder.

The 2008 season saw Hinske hit 20 home runs for the Rays, who won the AL East pennant. The Rays made it to the World Series for the first time in franchise history that season, but lost to the NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies.

In January 2009, Hinske signed a one-year contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates, where he played in 54 games before being traded to the New York Yankees in July.  In 39 games with the Yankees, Hinske hit seven home runs in his 84 at-bats.

The team clinched the AL East pennant and went on to the World Series, Hinske’s third straight World Series appearance with his third different team, all of which were from the AL East.

The Yankees went on to win the Fall Classic, earning Hinske his second career championship ring.

On January 5, 2010, Hinske reached a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the Atlanta Braves. Over the course of the season, Hinske appeared in 131 games. He ended the season with 11 home runs, 51 RBI and a .256 batting average.

In one of his more memorable at bats of the season, Hinske hit a go-ahead two-run home run off San Francisco Giants reliever Sergio Romo in the eighth inning of Game 3 of the NLDS. However, the Braves ultimately lost the game and were eliminated in Game 4.

On December 2, 2010, the Braves signed Hinske to a one-year, $1.45 million contract that includes an option for the 2012 season, further ensuring their likelihood to clinch a playoff berth in 2011.

Look for Hinske’s talent, and luck, to carry the Braves into the postseason for a second consecutive season.

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1) Will Nate McLouth return to All-Star form?

Putting it nicely, McLouth had a dismal 2010 season.

In 85 games, he hit six home runs and had 24 RBI. He spent much of 2010 at AAA-Gwinnett before being called up late in the second half of the season when rosters expanded.

The Braves are hoping that McLouth has turned it around this offseason and will be ready to contribute in 2011.

McLouth, who participated in this year’s Braves Country Caravan, meeting fans from across the south, reportedly spend the offseason at his home in Michigan. There, McLouth attempted to distance himself from his 2010 season and regain his mental and physical strength.

“It was a rough season, there’s no other way to put it,” McLouth told Braves Beat Reporter Mark Bowman.

“It was nice to go into the offseason, take a step back and get my confidence back, which I did. You can say whatever you want, but when you struggle as bad as I did, your confidence is going to take a hit. But I am confident, and I’m definitely excited about this season.”

The Braves are hoping McLouth can rebound from a tough season and find the power and consistency that made him an All-Star during his time in Pittsburgh and will likely need him to to compete in the tough NL East.

2) Can Tommy Hanson learn to limit early damage?

Hanson allowed five or more runs six times last season, including eight runs in less than two innings pitched against the Cincinnati Reds and nine runs in less than four innings pitched against the Chicago White Sox.

Despite those statistics, Hanson ended 2010 with a 10-11 record and a 3.33 ERA in 202.2 innings pitched.

His win total could have been much higher, but late-game blunders often cost Hanson a win during much of the season, especially the second half.

Hanson’s second half was considerably better than his first, in which he posted a 2.51 ERA, as compared to his 4.13 ERA in the first half.

The Braves will need a strong full-season from Hanson if they expect to win the East.

3) Can the defense cut down the errors?

The Braves had quite a few costly errors late last season. Despite popular belief, Brooks Conrad was not the only one to falter with the leather; as many Braves infielders—and even Melky Cabrera with his sideways throw late last season—misplayed the ball.

And while the addition of Dan Uggla may prove to be a good one from the offensive side of things, his defense is not something to boast about. In the last three seasons, Uggla committed 47 errors.

In comparison, Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips committed 19 over that time.

Questions surround the rest of the team’s ability to field as well. If Martin Prado does begin the season in left field, he will do so with only three games of experience under his belt in that position.

4) Will the fifth starter, when named, be effective?

Three pitchers are vying for the fifth and final spot in the Braves starting rotation this spring, all of which spent at least some time in the majors last season.

The first two, Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy, were mid-to-late season call-ups for the Braves while the third, newcomer Rodrigo Lopez, spent the season starting for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The southpaw Minor, the early favorite for the spot, went 3-0 in his first 4 starts with a 3.91 ERA. However, in his next four starts, Minor went 0-2 and posted a 9.37 ERA. In those last four starts, Minor’s fastball did lose some velocity, but experts around the league credited his curveball’s tendency to sail on him as the key to his ineffectiveness.

Beachy, who has never attended Braves Spring Training, was called up in September when Jair Jurrjens was scratched from his expected start against the Phillies. In his three starts last season, Beachy went 0-2 with 3.00 ERA.

Lopez appeared in 33 games with the Diamondbacks, posting a 7-16 recording alongside a 5.00 ERA. Although Lopez did pitch 200 innings last season, he allowed a career high 37 home runs.

In all likelihood, Lopez will need to have a humongous spring to make the squad.

5) Can Chipper return to form?

Before succumbing to injury last season, Jones hit 10 home runs, had 46 RBI and batted .265 in 95 games with the Braves.

Jones, who has been a staple in the Braves lineup since 1995, said he was optimistic about his injured left knee and will report to Spring Training along with the pitchers and catchers on Feb. 14th.

“I’ve felt good since I began the treatments and I’ve had no limitations since,” Jones told reporters in January.

At this stage in his career, if Jones thinks he’s ready, he’s ready.

He hinted at retirement last season, but if Jones still thinks he can play and be effective on the field, he’ll be back at third base for Opening Day.

6) Can Uggla repeat what he did in Florida?

Since he began his career with the Florida Marlins in 2006, Uggla has hit no fewer than 27 home runs and batted in no few than 88 runs.

Last season, Uggla had career highs with his 105 RBI and 33 home runs and, now that he is reunited with his former manager Fredi Gonzalez, Braves fans expect big things out of Uggla, the power bat that the Braves have been looking for for quite some time.

If Uggla can post numbers similar to the last five years, look for the Braves to win the NL East.

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The baseball offseason has all but come to a close and just over two weeks remain until the Atlanta Braves’ first spring training game against the New York Mets on Feb. 26.

No Braves player is itching to get back onto the field quite like Brooks Conrad.

It was nearly four months ago to the day when Conrad tied an MLB postseason record by committing three errors in one game and ultimately swung the momentum of the NLDS in favor of the San Francisco Giants.

The errors (a hard grounder going between his legs, a booted double-play ball and a dropped pop fly) have surely replayed in the minds of Braves fans and Conrad alike, ever since that atrocious Game 3.

“I feel absolutely terrible right now,” Conrad had told reporters after the game. “I wish I could just dig a hole and sleep in there.”  

But the truth is, up until that moment, Conrad had all but carried the team in the latter half of the season. The 31-year-old utilityman had become a fan favorite when he capped of a seven-run ninth inning with a walk-off grand slam against Cincinnati Reds closer Francisco Cordero.

Months later, Conrad hit another pinch-hit grand slam, this time in Miami against the NL East foe Florida Marlins. The shot put the Braves ahead for good in the game, which they ended up winning 10-5.

When All-Star Martin Prado went down with an injury late in the season, Conrad again came up large for the Braves in an August 13th game against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The game had been a pitching duel, as Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda matched Braves starter Tim Hudson pitch-for-pitch until the seventh inning, when Conrad took him deep over the center field wall.

The Braves won the game 1-0.

It would be easy for Braves fans to turn their backs on Conrad after his performance in Game 3 of the NLDS, but they shouldn’t.

Game 3 was only the 11th time Conrad had started at second base in his entire major league career, a career that saw him go from a hero to a one-man blooper reel in less than five months.

Nowadays, Conrad, sporting a No. 7 jersey instead of his traditional No. 26 because of new teammate Dan Uggla’s request for the number, has reportedly moved on from incidents of that October afternoon and is ready to get back onto the field and prove himself to Braves teammates and fans alike.

His journey begins on Feb. 18th, when Braves’ position players report to spring training.

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Gone is Billy Wagner, the 16-year MLB veteran, and in is Craig Kimbrel, a 22-year-old protege of the veteran southpaw.

Yes, the Braves will miss former closer Billy Wagner in the ninth inning this season. There’s no way around it.

Wagner’s 1.43 ERA in his 71 appearances last season provided Braves fans with a sense of calmness when “Enter Sandman” echoed throughout the stands in the ninth inning—a feeling not felt throughout Turner Field since John Smoltz was their closer. They’d struggled through the days of Chris Reitsma, Dan Kolb and other disappointments before falling in love with the flame-throwing Wagner.

However, midway through the season, Wagner announced 2010 would be his last and an injury in postseason play provided some much-needed experience for expected 2011 closer, the rookie Kimbrel.

Kimbrel, combined with the rest of the Braves’ young bullpen, now has a little postseason experience under his belt, and is itching to return to October baseball.

The Braves look to return to the postseason for the second season in a row, surely challenging the defending NL East champion Phillies. The Braves bullpen will need to buckle down and pick up the slack left by Wagner’s departure and continue to be lights out in the final three-plus innings.

Left-handed reliever Jonny Venters, 25, ended 2010 with a 1.95 ERA and 93 strikeouts in his 83 innings pitched. Midseason, Venters was lights out and even earned the nickname “Everyday Jonny” by Braves announcers Joe Simpson and Chip Caray because of Braves manager Bobby Cox’s tendency to use Venters on a day-in, day-out basis.

Venters did show signs of late-season fatigue, but, after a full offseason of training for what should be the set-up role in the bullpen, Venters is surely stronger and better prepared for 2011.

During the offseason, the Braves signed left-handed reliever George Sherrill to a one-year contract worth $1.2 million, with the ability to make up to $200,000 more due to incentives.

Sherrill had a disappointing 2010, posting a 6.69 ERA in his 65 games with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Despite the high numbers, Sherrill held left-handed hitters to a .192 batting average. In his new role with the Braves, Sherrill will likely be used primarily for facing left-handed batters. If he can continue to be effective against the likes of Ryan Howard, look for the Braves pen to be successful.

The Braves also have returning left-handed reliever Eric O’Flaherty in their bullpen. O’Flaherty missed much of the second half of 2010 after getting mononucleosis. Prior to the illness, O’Flaherty posted a career-low 2.45 ERA in 56 games with the Braves and was a effective tool for Cox to use late in the game.

Reliever Peter Moylan appeared in 85 games for the Braves in 2010 and ended the season with a 2.97 ERA. Moylan, who is notorious for rarely giving up a home run while on the mound, gave up only five long balls in 63.2 innings pitched.

The side-armed pitcher, who was given his own entrance video themed to AC/DC’s “TNT” at Turner Field last season, has always been very reliable when placed into a close game, going 6-2 in both 2009 and 2010.

Look for Moylan to be successful again in 2011 and even enter into the role of veteran for the young Braves bullpen. Besides Moylan’s reliability, his mindset is also a key to his successes. He’s known around the clubhouse as having a great sense of humor and recently opened a Twitter account to give fans an inside view of his life. “Guys I’m so ready its scary,” Moylan posted on the account.

But back to Kimbrel.

In his 21 appearances last season, Kimbrel had a 0.44 ERA. The number seems to stand out upon first glance, but it’s not Kimbrel’s most daunting statistic from 2010.

In his 20.2 innings pitched, Kimbrel had 40 strikeouts and allowed only one earned run and nine hits by opposing batters. He made an appearance in all of the Braves’ postseason games, allowing one hit in 4.1 innings pitched.

The Huntsville, Ala. native throws the ball hard and was able able to study under Wagner for the latter part of 2010. Look for Kimbrel to have a huge breakout season and the Braves to return to the postseason for a second consecutive year.

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