Kuzul

Previously, The Fantasy Fix reviewed and gave projections for the 2011 Blue Jays rotation. Now it’s time to dive in and analyze these north-of-the-border bombers’ positional players.

Don’t forget to check out our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Mixed League Rotisserie Auction Values in Parentheses 

The Blue Jays led the majors in slugging percentage and home runs last year with 257, and the next closest was the Red Sox at 211. In fact they hit 56 more home runs than the vaunted Bronx Bombers.

The 2011 Blue Jay’s version is also loaded with possibilities and question marks. 

Can Jose Bautista hit 50+ HR’s again? Will Aaron Hill and Adam Lind regain 2009 form? Can rookie catcher J.P. Arencibia handle the pitching staff and show his minor league power at the next level? There is a ton of value here but at what price?

CATCHER: J.P.ARENCIBIA ($6) – The Blue Jays are giving the rookie a chance to start. He has shown big power numbers in the minors hitting .301 with 32 HR. His ADP is around the 14th catcher of the board in mixed league drafts. JP’s flying under the radar and will be a good source for HR/RBI totals. Grab him in the late rounds as a sleeper catcher.

FIRST BASE: ADAM LIND ($19) –  Keep an eye on your league’s games played by position rules because Lind only played 11 games at 1B and 16 in the OF. He is slated to handle the first base duties this year. Adam struggled mightily last year with a .237/23/72 line. He did have a better second half though hitting .267 and clubbing 13 home runs. I am projecting him to be more like the 2009 version with .265/28/100 totals. He will need to improve on the .117 BA against lefties to get there though. He’s a solid tenth round or later pick mixed league pick. 

SECOND BASE: AARON HILL ($23) – I like Hill to have a bounce back year after fighting through a miserable 2010. Hill will never again match the 2009 totals of .286/36/108 but the power is there as well as the .270 career batting average. He has huge value pick potential here also because of his down year last year. His ADP for 2nd basemen has been 11th this year in ESPN leagues. He’s a top ten second basemen you can wait awhile on. 

SHORTSTOP: YUNEL ESCOBAR ($9) – Esco is a solid second tier SS with an ADP around 18th round. He is another player with bounce back potential and will be a solid contributor in BA with a mix in of some power and runs scored. The call is yours here although I’m not a fan. I feel he is strictly a backup on your fantasy roster. 

THIRD BASE: JOSE BAUTISTA ($30) – Wow look at this stat line for 2010 .260/54/124, nine SB and 109 runs. Jose is a top three pick who qualifies as a 3B/OF in all formats. Temper your expectations on Bautista though; a regression in his production would be logical since season’s like 2010 are tough to reproduce. ADP is end of third round being the fifth ranked third sacker off draft boards. I like him to have another solid year but I’m curbing my expectations to more like .250/38/100.

OUTFIELD: TRAVIS SNIDER ($12) – The kid is 23 and has proven he can hit at all major league levels. He played only a half season last year posting 14 HR while hitting .304 in September. With the chance for an every day job Travis’ line projects around .265/25/80 making him a solid 12th round or later pick in mixed leagues.

RAJAI DAVIS ($15) – The move out of Oakland to a much more potent offense should boost Davis, who finished 2nd in the A.L. last year in stolen bases with 50. He is projected to lead off and will be a solid contributor in SB, BA and run categories. The knock on Rajai though is that he doesn’t reach base enough. Will the move out of Oakland cut down on his stolen base attempts? He is the 39th OF taken in ESPN drafts this year three rounds later than Brett Gardner. Scott Podsednik is also looming on the Blue Jay roster so check The Fantasy Fix updates to see if Davis nails down the job. He is a bargain just do not take him too early. 

JUAN RIVERA ($5) – Rivera came from Anaheim in the Vernon Wells trade. He posted pedestrian stats last year for the Angels .252/15/52. I see a possible 20 home run season in the making. Late round flier pick only.

SCOTT PODSEDNIK ($5) – Tough to assign value to Pods not knowing how much he will play. He has back to back 30 steal seasons but nagging injuries for the 35-year-old journeyman have hurt his value. The foot injury that sidelined him last year is still an issue this spring. He is going 20 spots higher in most mixed league drafts than fellow teammate Rivera. If he gets a starting gig, boost his value. I think his best years are behind him. 

DESIGNATED HITTER: EDWIN ENCARNACION ($8) – Encarnacion is eligible at third base. He is having a decent spring and has some sleeper value IF he is guaranteed playing time. He hit 21 HR in only 332 AB last year. He’s going in late rounds in many drafts. This is a late round pick that can win you a league if it pans out. Worth taking a chance on. 

Written exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com by John Marino 

 THE FANTASY FIX 2011 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT KIT IS NOW AVAILABLE!

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Check out some of our other NEW articles…

2011 Fantasy Baseball Starting & Relief Pitchers Under the Radar

2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit Sneak Peek: The Closer Report

2011 Fantasy Baseball: Ten Introductory Tips for Fantasy Baseball Beginners

2011 Fantasy Baseball Ranks: Mr. 52 Pick-Up’s Weekly Big Board

2011 Fantasy Baseball: Wake Up To These Fantasy Sleepers

2011 Fantasy Baseball: Spring Forward with Top Corner Infield Prospects

Baltimore Orioles 2011 Projections: Fantasy Baseball Team Preview

2011 Fantasy Baseball: Shedding Light On This Year’s Dark-Horses

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

If you have played fantasy baseball the last 2-3 years, you know who the top 20-40 picks will be in your draft. The smart owners are the ones who can predict who is due to “break out” or come back to form after a season or two of mediocrity. Here is my list off players flying under most mock draft radar screens.

And don’t forget to buy The Fantasy Fix’s 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit.

STARTING PITCHERS:

Daniel Hudson (Arizona Diamondbacks) He isn’t even listed in the top 50 in many of the so-called “expert’s”magazines. This guy was lights-out the last six weeks of the season and helped me win two leagues. In 2010 he had an ERA of 2.45, 84 Ks and a low WHIP. Plus, he is the number one starter for the Diamondbacks.

Brian Matusz (Baltimore Orioles) Stud in the last part of the season for the Orioles. If that continues, you can get him cheap and reap the rewards (should go in the middle rounds). I like how Showalter is pushing him; now if the Orioles could get out of the A.L. East, he would have top 10-15 potential. Matusz is a lefty with all the tools.

Kyle Drabek (Toronto Blue Jays) Watched him pitch against the Binghamton Mets in the Eastern League where he won honors as the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year. Yes, it’s a big step up from AA, but the Blue Jays traded Shaun Marcum to make room for Drabek. Watch him in the spring and if he looks good, take him as a late round flier.

Chris Young (New York Mets) A down right stud when healthy, but there in lies the problem. Young is switching teams, going from San Diego and coming to the Big Apple, so I’m thinking a change of scenery can’t hurt, right? Young is worth a late round flier and a healthy year could win you a championship. He is definitely worth the chance.

Jake Peavy (Chicago White Sox) He will go later in drafts because of the injury bug the last few years. A healthy Peavy means top 20-25 potential and that is the definition of a sleeper. Give him a look.

A.J. Burnett (New York Yankees) Yankee fans do not like him and most of the fantasy world thinks he is a washed up head case, so here’s your chance. Great stuff and potential top-25 pitcher with that offense. He will work with a new catcher this year, so this could be a subtle factor that may turn him around. Take a chance on him if he is still there in the last seven rounds of your draft.

RELIEF PITCHERS:

Brad Lidge (Philadelphia Phillies) Lidge flies under the radar because of his erratic monthly splits the last two years. To me this is a no brainer—just look at the starters on this team. The Phils will be in many close games, which means huge save chances. If Lidge is 75 percent effective, you will get 30-plus saves.

Joe Nathan (Minnesota Twins) Nathan was once a top-five closer who missed all of last year with an injury. Out of sight, out of mind for some fantasy owners, so he will slide in drafts. Watch preseason games and news reports to see if he is healthy; if so, grab him and plug in 35 saves.

Matt Thornton (Chicago White Sox) Somebody has to close for the Chicago White Sox and Thornton has the numbers. 82K in 60 innings with eight wins. Target him in the late rounds.

J.J. Putz (Arizona Diamondbacks) Arizona needs a closer and Putz is their man. A couple injury-plagued seasons have hindered his production. Arizona is likely to improve, so he is definitely worth a flier in the late rounds.

Chris Perez (Cleveland Indians) Great relief pitcher no one has heard of because he plays for the Tribe (Check out our interview with “Pure Rage Perez”). I added him in several leagues early last year when Kerry Wood went down and reaped the benefits. A slight drop in his BB and some improvement by the Indians makes Perez a top-ten closer SLEEPER!!

Written exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com by John Marino 

 THE FANTASY FIX 2011 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT KIT IS NOW AVAILABLE!

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Check out some of our other NEW articles…

2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit Sneak Peek: The Closer Report

2011 Fantasy Baseball: Ten Introductory Tips for Fantasy Baseball Beginners

2011 Fantasy Baseball Ranks: Mr. 52 Pick-Up’s Weekly Big Board

2011 Fantasy Baseball: Wake Up To These Fantasy Sleepers

2011 Fantasy Baseball: Spring Forward with Top Corner Infield Prospects

Baltimore Orioles 2011 Projections: Fantasy Baseball Team Preview

2011 Fantasy Baseball: Shedding Light On This Year’s Dark-Horses

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

As the 2011 MLB season quickly approaches, Adam Ganeles provides some insight into how some of the top corner infield prospects are progressing in spring training.

Royals first base prospect Eric Hosmer has imaginations running wild early in March. In 13 at bats this spring, he has six hits, two monumental blasts (including a grand slam) and six RBI. This is not foreign territory for the 6’4″ 230-pounder who tore up the Carolina and Texas leagues last year to the tune of .338/20/86. 

However, Hosmer’s poor performance in the Arizona Fall League, where he notched just six extra base hits in 79 plate appearances, did raise some red flags. With Kila Ka’aihue splitting time between 1B and DH, there is no immediate need to rush Hosmer to the show.

The 21-year-old will begin the season in AAA, but will be tough to keep down if he continues to manhandle MiLB pitching. His teammate, third baseman Mike Moustakas (22), has a real shot to break camp with the Royals. 

Freddie Freeman has been a fixture in Braves spring training since 2009, but in 2011 his starting first base job is locked up. His .319/18/87 line in the International League last year was his proving ground. Freeman was given a harsh introduction to major league ball in September, going 4-for-24 with zero walks and eight strikeouts—but the Atlanta brass didn’t bat an eye.

They know full well the class of their 21-year-old phenom, and a small sample of failure will not alter that reputation. Freeman has 11 hits in 24 spring ABs, with three doubles and four runs batted in. Barring injury, he is the Opening Day first baseman. There is NO competition. 

Drafted both in 2006 and 2007 as a left-handed pitcher, Brandon Belt is turning heads with his lefty bat. A fifth-round pick in 2009, Belt demolished the California and Eastern leagues, batting a composite .352 with 23 HR, 43 doubles, 10 triples, 112 RBI, 22 stolen bases and a 93:99 BB:K ratio. He didn’t break stride in the Arizona Fall League, posting a .372 BA in 86 at bats with eight doubles and five triples. 

The 23-year-old Belt—the Giants’ top prospect—is on the ultimate fast track as he continues to develop power in his lanky 6’5″ frame. He has a HR, two doubles and six RBI in 25 spring plate appearances.

Nevertheless, he’s all but assured to begin the season in AAA Fresno. Keep tabs—if Pablo Sandoval or Pat Burrell struggle, look for Aubrey Huff to change positions and Belt to get the call. 

In a perfect world, the Indians would like another year of seasoning for third-base prospect Lonnie Chisenhall. For better or worse, the 22-year-old left-handed hitter renowned for his “pure” swing could be forced to learn on the job. The club’s lackluster options at the position—i.e. Jason Donald, Luis Valbuena and Jack Hannahan—don’t bring much, if any, potential to the table.

In his third minor league campaign in 2010, Chisenhall hit .278 with 17 HR, 22 doubles and 84 RBI. He’s looked sharp in 15 spring at bats, picking up seven hits, two HR and four runs batted in. “The Chiz” could break camp with the Indians, or at the very least join the team imminently.

[Original Article]

Written exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com by Adam Ganeles

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The late winter air is ripe with fantasy baseball optimism as spring training games commence under the warm southern sun and fans speculate the fates of their teams’ stars. But often, it’s not the stars who are the catalysts behind their teams’ early season success, but instead, it’s the sleepers, the dark horses and unknown who catch the league by surprise.

Here’s a glimpse at a handful of players poised to play the role of the unexpected and deliver in 2011. 

Don’t forget to check out our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit.

Tampa Bay may have lost some offensive pop with the departures of Carlos Pena (28 HR) and Carl Crawford (19 HR), but the Rays will look to newly appointed spark-plug Ben Zobrist to compensate for these franchise pillars. It’s unlikely that this utility man will ever return to his 2009 level though, which saw Zobrist post a career-year performance (.297 AVG, 27 HR, 91 RBI and 17 SB). 

Adding additional value to Zobrist’s stock is his exceptional athleticism, which fostered a career-high 24 stolen bases. Manager Joe Maddon should continue to post the green light for his swift-footed middle infielder, who was thrown out just three times in 2010 and considering Zobrist’s above-average batting eye, Tampa Bay will have a reliable offensive threat.

Adam LaRoche will never have the glamour or flash of an Albert Pujols or Mark Teixeira, but the veteran first baseman will do at least one thing well: Hit for power. LaRoche’s 25 big flies in 2010 was the fifth time in eight years that the 32-year-old surpassed the 20-homer threshold and considering the healthy supply of available plate appearances in Washington, LaRoche looks to be a lock to again post impressive power numbers. 

The lone caveat when analyzing the potential production from LaRoche is his notoriously slow starts. The owner of a .252 pre-All-Star game average, LaRoche is a strong finisher, whose .295 post-All-Star average is a better indication of how valuable the sweet-swinging lefty can be. 

Amidst an American League loaded with young, promising backstops, Tampa Bay’s John Jaso has presented himself as one of the most undervalued and patient catchers in the league today. At 27, Jaso isn’t a kid and won’t develop into an elite-level catcher, but he will provide the serviceable stats required to fend off competition for Tampa’s starting catching job. 

In just his first full season behind the dish for the Rays, Jaso displayed a high level of patience (.372 OBP) while also giving himself a chance at the plate by drawing more walks than strikeouts (59 BB to 39 K). Should he attain 450-500 plate appearances as the Rays’ full-time catcher, Jaso could amass a lofty hit total (10/25 in April 2010) and rack up an impressive amount of walks. 

Entering a contract year, Mets’ Carlos Beltran will look to contribute from the middle of the New York lineup hitting behind Jose Reyes. After manning center field in Flushing since ’05, Beltran has asked for a move to right field to alleviate stress on his balky, surgically repaired knee, which limited him to a mere 64 appearances in 2010. 

Beltran will be 34 this April and in order to cash in on another contract, the veteran switch-hitter will need to return to his customary combination of power and speed (eight seasons of 20-plus HR and 20-plus SB). Breathing down his neck will be emerging prospect Fernando Martinez, who owns many of the tools the Mets will look to build around. A slow start for Beltran (.281 career April batting average) will lead to a shorter leash and greater likelihood that young Martinez could replace the incumbent veteran. 

Written exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com by Conor Gereg.

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The top of the Texas Rangers’ 2011 pitching rotation has a glaring absence: no Cliff Lee.  And, unfortunately for the Rangers, the best fantasy pitcher on the team just might be reliever Neftali Feliz. 

The Rangers came out of nowhere last year to storm to the World Series.  2010 was magical but you have to expect some regression in 2011.

Colby Lewis (ranked 36th in our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit) proved that a trip to Japan doesn’t necessarily mean the end of a career.  After experimenting in Japan, he returned to the states to put up decent fantasy numbers.  His 12-13 record left a lot to be desired, but he managed to contribute a lot of innings, post nearly 200 strikeouts and registered a respectable 3.72 ERA. 

If Lewis can build on his solid playoff stats (3-0, 1.71 ERA, and nearly a strikeout per inning pitched), we might be witnessing the beginning of something special.  That being said, he is 31 years old, and in the post-steroid era, players normally don’t show huge improvements in their 30s. 

Despite the potential for solid numbers, he’s probably no better than the 35th starting pitcher, so don’t chase in the draft.

C.J. Wilson (ranked 33rd) made a smooth transition from reliever to starting pitcher last year.  With a 15-8 record, 170 strikeouts and a 3.35 ERA, he finished the season as a top 25 pitcher. 

Like Colby Lewis, C.J. is a 30-year-old pitcher coming off a career year. The difference? C.J. was finally given the opportunity to show what he could do in a starting role so he is more likely to maintain or even improve upon last year’s stats.  You have to expect he’d be able to improve in his second year as a starter. 

Two big hurdles: Can he handle the added expectations and what will happen after working a career high number of innings?  If he can pass those tests, he’ll be a nice fantasy starter.

Tommy Hunter (ranked 135th) posted an impressive 13-4 record in 22 starts last year, but there are some red flags.  He doesn’t strike out many batters and he gives up a lot of home runs.  With those drawbacks, it is hard to imagine that he replicates his 13-4 performance.  Still, he is only 24, so if anyone in this rotation has a chance to improve, it is him.

Brandon Webb (ranked 87th) is very high risk/high reward.  At one point in time Webb was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Just look at his Cy Young finishes from 2006-2008: first, second, second.  But, and it is a BIG but, he’s only pitched in one game in the last two years. 

Trying to predict what will happen with him is like trying to predict Charlie Sheen’s next rant.  If Webb can recover his magical sinker ball, he could be a steal.  Of course it is all dependent on him getting back on the field.  As of today he was in camp and throwing bullpen sessions, but there is no way to know if one of the best pitchers of the last half decade can regain his elite form.

There is a battle for the fifth spot between Derek Holland (ranked 70th) and Scott Feldman.  Currently, Holland holds the edge as Feldman is battling back from a knee injury (Feldman did have an impressive start in his first game of the spring). The rest of the writers at The Fix seem to have written off Feldman (not even ranking him in the top 150).  At only 24 years old, Feldman should be able to bounce quickly back from injury and is worthy of watching closely. Keep an eye on the situation in spring training.

As previously mentioned, Feliz (ranked 7th among closers) is definitely the most desired fantasy pitcher on the staff.  He’ll get you 40 saves and over nine strikeouts per nine innings. Expect Feliz to finish around the top five in relief pitchers.

Without Lee (ranked 5th), there is nobody on the starting staff that is a must own.  Your best bet, wait and see if Wilson and Lewis are available in later rounds as they provide nice potential value. The value on the Rangers is their bats, so don’t waste any high draft picks!

 THE FANTASY FIX 2011 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT KIT IS NOW AVAILABLE!

Written by Chris Summers exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com

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Previously The Fantasy Fix reviewed and gave projections for the 2011 Yankees rotation. Now its time to dive in and analyze the Pinstripes positional players.

Mixed League Rotisserie Auction Values in Parentheses

CATCHER: Russell Martin ($7)

Early season speculation had youngster Jesus Montero pegged as the 2011 Opening Day starter but it looks as if the Yankees deemed him “not major league ready” yet with the offseason signing of Martin. 

Russell will handle the starting duties with long time Yankee catcher Jorge Posada moving to the DH position.  Be careful with Martin though, as he is coming off offseason hip surgery and if he starts slow you may see the Yankees promote Montero, thrusting Martin into a part-time role.

DH/CATCHER: Jorge Posada ($16)

Hip-hip-Jorge will move to the DH position although he will still qualify as a catcher this year.  Posada, like Martin, is coming off an injury plagued season and his stat trends dropped in the last three years.

Jorge is a boom or bust candidate because of the lack of quality catchers in the majors. Draft him in middle rounds and hope the move out of the catching position will keep him healthy.

FIRST BASE: Mark Teixeira ($33)

Tex started with his customary early season struggles but still managed a 33 HR and 108 RBI season.  Mark’s batting average took a dive from the norm but I would attribute that to some bad luck and a couple nagging season injuries.  Few know about Tex leading the American League in runs scored last year with 113. With a bump in his BA you have a solid four category player.

He’s a top 20 pick, just be prepared for another possible slow start.  Great candidate to trade for after other owners get frustrated with the mediocre April stat line season struggles.

SECOND BASE: Robinson Cano ($36)

I absolutely love Cano and he is as safe a pick as you can get at the second base position.  Hitting in the middle of the Yankee lineup only adds to his potential to produce. 

Some of you may have drafted Robbie in the middle rounds last year but be rest assured that will not happen this year.  The American League second base position is not that deep so the only question is how much do you covet him?  He’s a solid four category player and a great league addition.  He’ll play 160 games and get you 600 plus AB.

SHORTSTOP: Derek Jeter ($21)

Jeter has been a mainstay at the Yankees SS position since 1995.  The question now is whether the 36-year-old aging Jeter can show the doubters that last season was just a down year. 

My feeling is that Jeter will want to prove the naysayers wrong and he will bounce back with a solid year worthy of a top five SS. His 2010 stat line read .270, 10 HR, 67 RBI which are still decent numbers for a shortstop across the board.  He lead all shortstops in runs scored and also swiped ten bases.

The Captain is still a contributor in all categories.  Draft him in the middle rounds and expect a bounce back year.

THIRD BASE: Alex Rodriguez ($30)

A-Rod is not the A-Rod of old.  The days of 50+ home runs and 140 RBI are gone. Steroid allegations, injuries and Cameron Diaz continue to drag his production down. He had career lows in BA and OBP in 2010.

That said, he is still an elite option at the third sack with a 30 HR, 120 RBI season very much in reach providing he stays healthy.

OUTFIELD

Brett Gardner ($15)

If you receive fantasy points for heart then Brett would be a top 10 option but unfortunately he is only a two category player—steals and runs.  Brett struggled in the second half of the season hitting only .233.

Draft him with expectations for above average SB and run categories.  With a full major league season under his belt, the ceiling is high for Brett. Just don’t expect Carl Crawford type numbers.

Curtis Granderson ($18)

Granderson strikes out too much, doesn’t hit lefties well and is a gamble if you’re willing to take the chance that last year was a down year for him and he will bounce back. Granderson does play every day and managed to hit 24 home runs last year.

He is a middle round pick and will provide you with decent numbers in four categories. He is a poor man’s Matt Holliday.

Nick Swisher ($21)

Nick had one of his best years ever in 2010 but be cautious when draft time comes around.  Swisher Sweet will get you 20+ HR and 70+ RBI but don’t get caught up in drafting him too early. 

I expect a drop in batting average and do not expect everything to fall into place for him like it did last year.  He’s a top 10 American League OF and a middle round pick in combined league drafts.

Andruw Jones ($7)

Jones will play some OF and DH a bit.  Basically he will take the place of Marcus Thames who signed with the Dodgers in the offseason.  Jones will pop a homer now and then but that is all he is good for now. 

He is at the end of his career and not worthy of drafting. Don’t let an early hot start like in 2010 fool you, as it didn’t last more than a month.

Eric Chavez ($7)

Chavez was an elite third sacker in the early 2000s but those days are long gone. He has barely played in the past three years with almost no production (64 games/3 HR/25 RBI) and was signed to be a possible left hand option off the bench plus insurance for Alex Rodriguez. 

If he actually makes the team and Rodriguez suffers a long term injury he may be worth a late round flyer or a waiver wire pickup. There are too many what-ifs to have any fantasy relevance on draft day.

Written exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com by John Marino

THE FANTASY FIX 2011 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT KIT IS NOW AVAILABLE!

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In our newest debate we compare 2009 stud Zack Greinke (ranked 7 in our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Kit) vs the Los Angeles strikeout machine Clayton Kershaw (ranked 12).

The case for drafting Greinke

In 2010 Zack Greinke hit a speed bump on his rise as one of the top pitchers in the game.  A new park, new league, and run support will all add up to fantasy fortune.  Look for Greinke to regain his composure this season and get back on track with his Cy Young capabilities.

When analyzing Greinke’s 2010 season you can see he suffered partially from his own mistakes.  However, the majority of his misfortune stems from poor defense, and poor run support.  

Last year, Greinke’s DIPS (Defense Independent ERA) was 3.45, a large drop from his ERA of 4.17.  By judging him based on his DIPS, taking into account his poor defensive supporting cast, Greinke would rank seventh overall, yet he ranked 28th.  

Greinke’s change of scenery this season won’t move him to the best fielding team in the league, but it will move him to a team ranked ten spots higher than the 25th ranked Kansas City defense.  This is a good jump but doesn’t come close to the offensive threat that will be on his side for a change.

Last season Greinke was given average runs per game in RS (Runs Support) by the anemic Royals offense.  Those numbers were bad enough to rank fifth lowest per start in the league.  Greinke’s horrible run support has nowhere to go but up when he has batters like Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Richie Weeks supporting him.

Making a decision between Greinke and Clayton Kershaw could at first seem like splitting hairs.  However, there are a few caveats that should be noted when considering picking Kershaw.  

First, Kerhsaw has a history of a high walk-rate and low innings-per start rate.  Throughout his career he has averaged 4.2 BB per 9 innings and a paltry 5.9 innings per game started.  

Kershaw can put up good numbers but one of his weaknesses is his inefficiency in pitch count.  For his career he averages 99 pitches per started games, in other words 99 pitches per 5.9 innings.  This puts him at a disadvantage for wins and for Quality Starts if your league measures that statistic.  

Clayton also got somewhat lucky last year, maintaining a substantially low .279 BABIP for the season. 

When it comes down to it, either pitcher is worthy of playing on my fantasy team.  Both pitchers on my team would be a dream come true honestly.  Nevertheless, if it’s time to make a decision with a minute on the clock, knowing this might be the difference between fantasy gold and bust.

Written exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com by James Bryce

The case for drafting Kershaw

In the past three seasons, Clayton Kershaw went from stud prospect to ace quicker than anyone in recent memory.  Last season Kershaw really seemed to figure out pitching in the big leagues. Kershaw added a slider to his arsenal, to complement his powerful fastball and his monster curve that has been given the marquee “Public Enemy Number One” by Hall of Fame Dodger announcer Vin Scully. The results were impressive with 13 wins and 212 strikeouts. 

Kershaw is still young and in today’s Major League Baseball that means limitations for young pitchers. An encouraging sign for Kershaw has been his increase in workload over his young career. 

In his first season in Chavez Ravine he only pitched 107.2 innings but tallied an impressive 8.4 K/9. His second season in the show generated even better numbers with Kershaw logging 171 innings pitched with a 9.7 K/9. Last season was Kershaw’s first as the ace of the Dodgers and he stepped up by pitching 204.1 innings with a 9.3 K/9.  

Many fantasy baseball pitchers are selected solely based on strikeouts, and wins. Fantasy owners tend to forget the less sexy but all important WHIP category. 

Kershaw has been an axe man chopping his WHIP bit by bit each season. In his first season in Dodger blue Kershaw’s WHIP was a respectable 1.495. In his second season Kershaw saw his BB/9 jump from 4.3 in 2008 to 4.8 in 2009. This would seem like bad news for a young pitchers WHIP. however, it actually decreased to 1.228.  

In 2010 Kershaw set career highs in wins, strikeouts, games started, innings pitched, and WHIP. His 1.179 WHIP was good enough for 24th in MLB. Kershaw was one of three pitchers under 24 to be in the top 25 in WHIP in the league. The others are Oakland’s Trevor Cahill and San Diego’s Mat Latos.  

The Dodger flamethrower will be all of 23 years of age this season, his fourth in the big leagues. Clayton is coming in the clear ace of the Dodger rotation and pitching his home games in a pitcher friendly ballpark makes him a safe bet to improve the numbers on the back of his baseball card. Fantasy owners will be happy taking a pitcher of Kershaw’s caliber. 

Written exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com by JJ Omar

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Because they’re the Twins, people generally expect their rotation to come through as expected. 
But let’s quickly run though their five projected starters:

Francisco Liriano is simply put, Jekyll and Hyde. Scott Baker has missed time in every season but one because of injury and has a career ERA of 4.32. Carl Pavano is 35-years-old and recently went five years between double-digit win seasons. Kevin Slowey has a career ERA of 4.41 and almost never hits 90 mph. And to wrap up the rotation is Nick Blackburn who was banished to the minors last year and has never had a winning record. Unless they change their minds and go with Brian Duensing, a converted reliever who was very solid in the second half last year.

But, it’s the Twins, and they know how to win, just don’t put *too* much stock in their fantasy prowess.

Except for Liriano, that is. Though he can be a tale of two pitchers (two seasons where he averaged 1.1 Ks per inning, two seasons where he averaged .88 Ks per inning with loads more walks and a WHIP nearly twice as high), Liriano – when healthy – is one of the few pitchers in baseball who can ring up 200 strikeouts. 

The “when healthy” issue is an open one. He already had some shoulder soreness this spring, but his ability to strike people out, not give up the long ball (only nine home runs allowed in 191 innings in 2010), keep a manageable WHIP and rack up double digit wins are all big-time fantasy assets. 

I wouldn’t put Francisco in the elite group of starters (Halladay, King Felix, Verlander, Lester, etc), but just a notch below. He should go in the 6th or 7th round and get about $20 at auction.

Scott Baker is next, with his career 4.32 ERA and injury history. Baker has loads of talent and a couple of good seasons under his belt (2008 and 2009), but he took a major step backwards in 2010. 

Baker’s ERA has climbed for three years running (3.45, 4.37, 4.49) as has his WHIP (1.18,1.19, 1.34). His BAA skyrocketed last year to .277, and his BABIP rose 47 points to .323.  And that’s the biggest difference between his 2008-2009 run and 2010 – that BABIP. 

All the other numbers – LOB %, GB% FB%, walks, etc – stayed fairly constant, but the fact that he was significantly more prone to giving up hits on balls in play, made his season that much worse.

If Baker can return his BABIP to the .270 range, he can be an excellent value pick. Watch for him in the late rounds or for less than $10 at auction.

Carl Pavano, a starter who wasn’t bought in my AL league last year, became a huge part of my title run.

In 2009, Pavano had a dismal 5.10 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, but broke out in 2010 with 17 wins, seven complete games, a 3.75 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He had the second lowest full-season BABIP of his career, and parlayed that into a sweet $16.5 million contract.

Though Carl could continue to surprise, I don’t put much stock in him. I wouldn’t choose him before the 20th round in a 12 team mixed league, or pay more than $5 for him in AL-only league.  The proof? I’m not even keeping him at $6.

Fourth is Kevin Slowey, a guy I had liked for a number of years and now, well, don’t. 

Yes, he won 13 games last year and pitches for a good team – which makes him worthy of AL-only ownership and deep mixed league consideration, but he’s been hurt all three years of his major league career and only once had an ERA below 4.45.

Slowey has never averaged more than seven strikeouts per nine innings, and consistently gives up more than a hit per inning.

Relying more and more on his slower two-seam fastball, slider and curveball, Slowey is in danger of becoming a 26-year-old junk ball pitcher. 

Honestly, he’s not worth a mixed league draft choice above the 21st round, or more than $5-8 at auction.

Finally, Nick Blackburn vs Brian Duensing – the former is a model of consistency and, unfortunately, of mediocrity. 

11-11 in both 2008 and 2009, Blackburn found himself banished to the minors for a few starts in 2010, only to be recalled and finish with a 10-12 record. His career ERA is 4.50, WHIP is 1.40, BAA of .296 and has never struck out 100 guys in a season.  He is the very definition of a $1/23rd round pick in AL only, and ignorable in mixed leagues. 

The latter, Duensing, is intriguing only because he had a 3.05 ERA in 13 starts last year (2.62 overall) and won ten games down the stretch. He was lucky, though, owning a very high LOB percentage (over 81 percent) and low BABIP of .272 – and he only struck out 5.4 guys per 9 innings (and you know how I feel about starters with low K/9). That said, he’s worth a couple dollars pitching for a good team in a pitchers’ ballpark.

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Written by Jesse Mendelson exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com.  Be sure to check back every Wednesday during the season for Jesse’s waiver wire column (and considering he used the waiver wire to sweep all three of his leagues last year, you might want to pay attention).  Find and add Jesse on Facebook.

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That San Francisco Giants rotation! That damn San Francisco Giants rotation!!  

They are the only reason my home-state Texas Rangers are not the current World Series champions (I refuse to give credit to Juan Uribe, Edgar Renteria or Cody Ross).  

And now I have to spend an hour or two looking at their names and discussing them. I will not enjoy this preview, but I hope you do and that you take some useful information from it.

The ace of the staff is “The Freak,” Tim Lincecum. There is no need to tell you in great detail why he is a fantasy stud, because you already know.

But one of the head honchos here at The Fix, Alan, tweeted this impressive stat a few days ago, “Most strikeouts from 2008-2010? Tim Lincecum with 757. Second best? Justin Verlander with 651.”

With Matt Cain, the Giants also have one of the three or four best 1-2 punches in the league (Phillies, Angels and Cardinals would be the others).  

There has been some conversation over at Fangraphs recently about how Cain has been able to keep fly balls from leaving the park so consistently over his five-year career. HR/FB rate is thought of as something that is somewhat variable and not always completely within the pitcher’s control. For Cain, factors such as a favorable park and an emphasis on keeping the ball down in the zone, have been mentioned as possibilities.

The follow-up question to that inquiry is whether he can keep the low HR/FB rate going.

I would say he has a pretty good track record at this point and is still in the same favorable home ballpark.  When you add Cain’s consistency in the strikeout department and his improved control (which helped him post a 1.08 WHIP last year) to his ability to keep balls in the yard, you get a top-20, maybe even top-15, pitcher.

In the interest of full disclosure, I have always thought of Jonathan Sanchez as overrated.  Admittedly, the season he turned in last year (3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 205 K’s) makes it look like I was wrong about him.  

But I would like to submit to you the following facts from Sanchez’s 2010 numbers:

His BABIP was 37 points lower than his career average, his strand rate was over seven percent higher than his career average, his ERA was below 4.00 for the first time in his career despite his FIP and xFIP remaining in the four’s and his control still sucks (4.47 BB/9).  

I am not saying Sanchez is not a mixed league-worthy pitcher, but I am saying that I disagree with everyone else here ranking him so high. He is the No. 32 starting pitcher in TheFantasyFix.com’s new draft guide (BUY IT NOW!!!). That being said, I’ve even seen him as low as 27 on other sites!

I would, without a doubt, rather have Daniel Hudson (40), Hiroki Kuroda (41), Ted Lilly (43) and Ricky Romero (54). I just do not see how a guy who will be average in wins and ERA is a potential WHIP killer (combined WHIP of 1.40 in 2008 and 2009), and the fact that he only stands out in K’s, makes him a borderline top-30 option.

Speaking of guys I feel are improperly ranked everywhere, can somebody please explain to me how in the hell Madison Bumgarner is a top-50 starting pitcher? There is no reason to think such a young arm is going to be a 200+ inning pitcher who throws deep enough into games to rack up the W’s.  

Bill James has him projected for 12 wins, and with Bumgarner likely to throw somewhere between 175 and 190 innings, 12 wins seems like the high end for his win projection.  

He is no strikeout stud either. In 107 innings at AA, Bumgarner had a 5.80 K/9, and in 82.2 innings at AAA, he had a 6.42 K/9. Not exactly what I would call overpowering lesser minor league talent.  What the kid does do well is throw strikes,—he has good BB/9 numbers at every level—but a low walk total does not always translate to stellar WHIP.  

Between AAA and the majors, Bumgarner has given up more than a hit per inning. So, if his WHIP was just a HIP (WHIP minus the walks, obviously), it would be a 1.06.  Add the walks to that, and there is little chance Bumgarner gets the WHIP under 1.25 in 2011.  

There is nothing wrong with a 1.30-ish WHIP, but when that is supposed to be your strength, you are probably not a strong starting pitching option.

Barry Zito is not the Cy Young-caliber pitcher he once was, and he is definitely not worth that monstrosity of a contract.  But just because he is not a fantasy ace anymore does not mean he is no longer useful.  

Since 2006, Zito has been remarkably consistent, if you exclude the train wreck he had in 2008.  He usually posts about 10 wins, along with an ERA near 4.0, a WHIP between 1.35 and 1.40 and a K/9 around 6.00. While not usable in mixed leagues, consistent numbers like that have value in NL-only leagues.  

There is always the risk that Zito has another train wreck in 2011, but he should be a solid fourth or fifth starter for NL-only owners.

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Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who would also like to point out that Madison Bumgarner’s strand rate was 10 percent higher than the league average last season. You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.

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Cleveland Indians fans have had, to say the least, a rough few years. The Tribe haven’t been able to win more than 69 games the last two seasons and 2008 only saw a .500 winning percentage. Trades and injuries have changed the vibe in Cleveland from when they won the AL Central in 2007. But even with this fall from grace, Indians fans can look to a brighter future, starting with their closer, Chris Perez.

Thanks for taking the time to do this interview with TheFantasyFix.com. I know our readers would love to know a little bit more about yourself.

TFF: Did you play other sports growing up? 

CP: I played soccer, basketball, football, volleyball and pretty much anything else that involved competing. When I was about 13, I concentrated solely on baseball.

TFF: While growing up, were there any professional baseball players you tried to emulate?

CP: Yes, Frank Thomas when he was with the Chicago White Sox. He was one of the most dangerous hitters during that period and his spring training was in nearby Sarasota, so I got to see him quite a bit. I was also a catcher most of my life and I really liked watching Pudge Rodriguez (he’s still playing!) because he had the best arm I’ve ever seen.

TFF: Being a catcher must really help you understand the Pitcher/Catcher relationship.

TFF: What did you major in at “The U?” Ideally, what would you like to do after baseball?

CP: My major was criminology with a minor in anthropology. Ideally I wanted to be an FBI profiler. If you ever watched the TV show Criminal Minds, that is exactly what I wanted to do.

TFF: On a side note, as a former Hurricane, how do you feel about the Al Golden hire for the football team?

CP: I have a little mixed feelings with the Al Golden hire. On one hand, he won at Temple which is hard to do. On the other, he really doesn’t have a very long coaching track record at the D-1 level. So I really hope he is the guy, because he’s young enough to be there for a very long time. I guess I’m a optimistic pessimist.  

TFF: Well being an optimistic pessimist is definitely the best kind. 

TFF: Early in your career you represented Team USA Baseball. Can you tell us a little bit about that experience?

CP: I’ve had the enjoyable experience of playing for Team USA twice; once on their collegiate National Team in ’05, and on the World Cup team in ’07. Both experiences are something I’ll remember for the rest of my life. Playing in the MLB is awesome and very special in it’s own right, but to play for Team USA and have the Stars and Stripes across your chest…there’s nothing like it. To be part of two select teams is pretty humbling. The time in ’05 was really fun because everyone was in college and we got to travel to Japan and Taiwan. We were pretty much on vacation with a little baseball thrown in. The time in ’07 was more business-like. We were a mixture of older and younger professionals, some with major league time, there to win the gold medal. We also went to Taiwan and participated in the IBAF World Cup of baseball. We ended up winning the whole tournament for the first time since the ’70’s.

TFF: What was it like being a first round pick? Did you have to deal with lots of pressures? People treating you differently? Asking you to borrow a few bucks?

CP: I have a really strong family and was fortunate that no one came to ask to borrow a few dollars. I don’t think I personally had any more pressure on me because I was a high pick. There was more pressure on me because I was always the youngest player on my team. I also had pretty good seasons so I kind of let my play do the talking.

TFF: How did it feel getting traded so early in your career? Did you feel betrayed by the Cardinals or did you know that it was just part of the game?

CP: I knew it was part of the game, but I was totally shocked that I was traded because I was so young. When I first was told of the trade my initial reaction was happiness and excitement. But as the day went on I started to realize that I was leaving behind a great organization in terms of fan support and tradition, but more importantly I was leaving behind a lot of friends that I had made coming up through the minors. It was also a great feeling that a team thought so highly of me and I knew I would have a tremendous opportunity with Cleveland.

TFF: Which guys on the team have you become the closest with since coming over from St. Louis? Any noteworthy jokesters in the Indians clubhouse?

CP: I’m pretty close to the whole bullpen, we are a family within a family. We all have similar interests and likes and really pull for each other during the season. We have a couple of funny guys on the team, Shelley Duncan and Frank Herrmann come to mind.

TFF: Kerry Wood really gave you a roller coaster ride in 2010. It must have been hard having a veteran breathing down your neck. Tell us about that.

CP: It would have been a lot more stressful if Kerry wasn’t such a good guy/teammate. Woody was great for all of us; we really looked up to him and tried to learn all we could from him. I told him a couple of times that I vividly remember the game when he struck out 20 Astros. I watched the entire game on WGN. So there was definitely respect there. I really didn’t have a problem wondering when he was coming back, or if he was going to be traded. I concentrated on myself and pitching as best as I could so that if something did happen I would get first crack at the closers’ role.

TFF: In your first full season in the AL you improved in virtually all possible statistical categories. What will you do differently in 2011 to continue improving and not let hitters get a read on you?

CP: I’m going to try and do the same things I did last year because I didn’t trick anyone; I went out there and got ahead of hitters and made tough pitches when I needed to. I also had a little luck, which never hurts. The way I approach hitters, I pitch to my strengths and adjust to what they do. I throw a lot of fastballs and read how the hitter is adjusting to my speed/location to see if I need to throw a slider or change locations. If I go out there and hit every spot all season long, I will have a great season. That’s the challenge of the game—you are challenging the hitter and your own self with trying to hit all of your spots.

TFF: How differently do you prepare now that you’re a closer, than when you were in middle relief? Different pitches, different mindset, etc?

CP: You probably won’t believe me, but as the closer, hitters are a little more patient, except in one-run games. So I try and throw the first pitch of an appearance right down the middle to get ahead. Other than that I really try to pitch the same in any role…dominate, be aggressive and attack the hitter. Now when guys get on base, it’s totally different trying to protect a lead as the closer vs middle relief. As the closer you sometimes have to navigate a lineup and pick out your best option to attack to protect a lead.

TFF: Have you embraced your nickname “Pure Rage”? It’s kind of like the modern day “Wild Thing” for the Indians.

CP: I’m cool with it. I think if you asked anyone that is close to me, the nickname definitely doesn’t fit me. Off the field, I’m pretty laid-back and easy going. On the field I’m more serious, quiet and focused. When I’m pitching that’s really the only time I have “Pure Rage.” I like to compete, but I love to win. Actually I hate to lose more. That’s what keeps me coming back, to compete and win at the highest level.

TFF: Have you ever played Fantasy Baseball? If so, how did you do?

CP: I’ve played twice, once in high school and once in college. Honestly it took too much time to do, so I never really enjoyed it. I would always forget to change my pitchers, or someone I started would get a day off, so I would always lose. I appreciate it though, because it really does bring in more fans and helps keep fans close to the game.  

TFF: Well, we and your fans appreciate that you appreciate us. 

TFF: What are your goals for this season? How about some stats projections…

CP: My main goal is to stay healthy. If I’m healthy I know I will have a successful year. Stats-wise I can’t really predict how many saves I’ll have because it really isn’t up to me. I’ll try to predict my blown saves at 3—2 in the first half and 1 in the second half. I think I will also be able to get a few more strikeouts this year by making better two-strike pitches and by mixing in a few more change-ups.

TFF: We so figured you would say zero blown saves! 

TFF: Other than Fausto Carmona, which Indians starter should we expect the most out of in 2011?

CP: I’m going to say with the four that are guarantee spots: Carlos Carrasco. He has the ability to throw four pitches for strikes and three of them are plus. He looked totally different last September than he did in ’09. As a dark horse look out for Anthony Reyes. He’s totally healthy now and has good velocity. He has a nice break to his slider and always has that change-up. I’ve played catch with him a few times and he looks/feels totally different. 

Thanks again Chris. You were a great interview and we at The Fantasy Fix wish you good luck in 2011. One request—try to take it easy on our buddy Will Rhymes over in Detroit, other than that…strike em all out!

Written by Alan Harrison exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com.

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