Kuzul

Let me just start by saying that I do not want to be writing this article. 

Not just because Cliff Lee did not sign with my Rangers, but because of the way it went down.  Throughout the whole process Ranger fans were led to believe Lee might stay in Texas and take (slightly) less money than what the Yankees were offering because he liked his time in Texas.  In the end he takes substantially less money in order to play in a place he likes, and that place is not Texas.  He did not take the money, and he did not pick us.  That sucks.  Now that I am done editorializing, maybe we should move on to the fantasy impact.

Ultimately, is there a significant fantasy impact of Lee going back to Philadelphia?  We are talking about a guy who has posted stud-caliber numbers in four different cities over the past three years.  His ERA was somewhat higher in his stops at hitter’s parks (3.39 in Philly, 3.98 in Texas), but his strikeout rate was consistently around seven to eight K/9, and his walk rate was consistently around one walk per nine innings or lower.  That is not going to change wherever he pitches.  

So we are talking about strikeouts and WHIP remaining relatively similar and a probable uptick in ERA which should be offset by an increased number of wins thanks to a solid Philly lineup.

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After several of years of rumor and speculation, Adrian Gonzalez has finally been traded from the San Diego Padres to the Boston Red Sox. It almost goes without saying, but leaving the cavernous Petco Park and anemic Padres lineup will do wonders for Gonzo’s fantasy production. The real impact of the trade is how it affects those left behind in (or sent to) San Diego.

First up, and most importantly, is Mat Latos. With 14 wins, more than a strikeout per inning, a 2.92 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, Latos was a fantasy stud last year in his first full season in the big leagues. By any measure, Latos was a top-15 starting pitcher last season. But will he be a top-15 guy in 2011, and should he be drafted that way?  

Even before you take into account how pathetic his run support will be with Gonzalez gone, his peripheral numbers indicate that a slight-to-moderate regression may be in order. Latos benefited from a high LOB% of 77.4% (14th highest in the league) and low line drive rate of 14.6% (4th lowest in the league) in ‘10.  

LOB% stands for left on base percentage and shows how “lucky” pitchers were with base runners they allowed being stranded on base. Given, starting pitchers do have a fair amount of control concerning stranded base runners, but it is possible that Latos comes back towards the mean next year.  

As far as line drive rate goes, it is a wildly unpredictable statistic largely out of a pitcher’s control that can change drastically from one year to the next. Because line drives end up as hits more often than any other type of batted ball, an unlucky swing in this number would have a negative effect on Latos’ ERA and WHIP.

Without Gonzalez, the Padres and Latos figure to accumulate fewer wins than they did last season. With a lower win total and a probable uptick in ERA and WHIP, Latos is still a monster strikeout guy that is probably more of a top-20 to top-25 starter who should be drafted somewhere in the 10th or 11th round in 10 team leagues.

The other guy who becomes very interesting as a result of this trade is one of the top Boston prospects sent to San Diego, right-hander Casey Kelly. Kelly is a 21-year-old who was a first round pick out of high school for the Red Sox in 2008. Those in dynasty leagues or deep keeper leagues should at least keep an eye on the potential Padres ace that could make 15-20 starts in Petco each year.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who is semi-embarrassed by his performance in thetantasyfix.com’s fantasy football league.  You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.

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It has been a big week for the Colorado Rockies as they have extended Troy Tulowitzki through 2020 (for $157M, no less) and resigned free agent Jorge de la Rosa.  

It seems painfully obvious that staying in Denver is ideal for Tulo and not so much so for de la Rosa, but these are two players worth examining further heading into 2011.

Starting with Tulo, durability concerns are a big issue for the shortstop.  In four Major League seasons, Tulo has played over 150 games twice but fewer than 125 in the other two seasons. Torn quadriceps, lacerated palms and broken wrists have sidelined Tulo in his career. Whether that means he is injury prone or just unlucky—in that he has not had any recurring injuries—is debatable, but a concern for fantasy owners either way.  

However, shortstop is such a paper thin position that many will see Tulo as being worth the risk, and I am inclined to be one of those people.  With 162 game averages of .290 BA, 104 R, 99 RBI, 27 HR and 12 SB, you could certainly make the argument that if he remains healthy, Tulo could be the fantasy MVP in 2011 based on the woeful lack of depth at his position.

Tulo figures to be a borderline top 10 hitting option in next year’s fantasy drafts, so with Roy Halladay sure to fit somewhere into that mix it seems that Tulo will be an early second round, possibly late first round pick you can feel good about drafting.

As for de la Rosa….

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The Detroit Tigers continued their aggressive offseason approach today by adding Victor Martinez to their roster for a reported $50 million over four years. 

Martinez is obviously a huge upgrade for the Tigers over Gerald Laird and Alex Avila, although Avila will have a chance to approach 300 at-bats again in 2011 with Martinez sure to see some time at DH.  The real question is whether the move to Detroit upgrades Martinez’s fantasy value in 2011.

My first thought was an assumption that Martinez probably had better numbers in games where he was a DH or first baseman as opposed to games he caught.  However, Martinez surprisingly has only 119 at-bats as a DH with a .235 career average and holds a .299 average as a catcher. 

Clearly the DH sample size is far too small to mean anything going forward, but the solid numbers as a catcher mean the extra time he will see at DH is probably not going to boost his production significantly if at all.

The next thing to consider is ballpark.  Fenway Park in Boston is generally considered to be a better park for hitters than Detroit’s Comerica Park, and Martinez’s splits are consistent with that line of thinking. 

In just under 400 career Fenway at-bats, Martinez owns a .322 average and .900 OPS, and in 169 at-bats at Comerica he has a .225 average and .671 OPS. 

Again, both sample sizes are too small to allow those splits to say anything definitive (500 at-bats usually represents a large enough sample size for batting average and OPS), but the difference in the numbers is fairly substantial. 

It seems obvious that the change of ballpark will depress Martinez’s offensive numbers to some degree.

The final consideration is the new lineup….

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It’s official…the baseball offseason is finally under way. 

With GM meetings going on in Orlando, the action finally got started today with the Marlins finding a trading partner for Dan Uggla. 

Jerry Crasnick is reporting via Twitter that the Atlanta Braves have acquired Uggla for utility man Omar Infante and left-handed reliever Mike Dunn. 

So how does this impact his fantasy value for 2011?

As an owner of Uggla in my most important keeper league, I have obviously been quite interested in his landing spot. 

Sadly, the Rockies did not revive their long-rumored interest in the stocky second baseman.  

Atlanta is about as uninteresting as a destination can be for Uggla in that it probably does not significantly affect his value one way or the other. 

On the plus side, Turner Field in Atlanta yields a few more home runs than Sun Life Stadium in Miami, but Uggla’s splits do not indicate that his home ballpark as a Marlin was holding him back in a big way.  

In just under 3,000 at-bats over the last five seasons, Uggla hit .261 at home and only .266 on the road with 78 home runs at home and 76 on the road.  Moreover, RBI opportunities and run totals do not figure to receive a significant boost by going from Florida’s lineup to Atlanta’s as the two were fairly similar offensive teams in 2010.

The most important consideration may be Uggla’s playing time.  You have to think that Atlanta would not trade for Uggla unless they planned on him being an everyday player, but with Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, Alex Gonzalez, and rookie Freddie Freeman sure to see substantial infield time, it is possible that Uggla may see a few more days off than fantasy owners would like. 

There has been some talk of Uggla seeing time in the outfield, but as big of a defensive liability as he is, you should not count on added outfield eligibility in 2011. 

Of course, all the playing time worries will surely be assuaged when Chipper goes down in Spring Training, Prado moves permanently to third, and Uggla becomes the only second baseman to hit 30 home runs in five consecutive seasons (he is already the only one to do it in four straight).

Ultimately, the pros and cons of Uggla are the same as they were yesterday.  Whether in Florida or Atlanta, he is still a 30-homer guy that could hit .245 or .285. 

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who is counting down the days until he can do baseball mock drafts in class.  You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.

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As your fantasy baseball marathons come down to the wire look to these players to help your team or keep them from hindering your team.  Rookies’ Starlin Castro and Ike Davis should have stellar weeks for your team.

Start ‘Em

Starlin Castro | Chicago Cubs | 81 percent
This 20-year-old phenom has been a work in progress with his glove but clearly has been an offensive asset.  This week Castro faces the Cardinals and Marlins.  In 36 at-bats this year against, Castro has hit .361 and .359 since the All-Star break.  This should be a strong sign that his numbers will keep pace for these games.

Ike Davis | New York Mets | 35.4 percent
Ike faces two opponents this week that really haven’t given a problem all year and on top of that they are at home where he’s hitting a solid .294.  This is over a 50 point jump from his away splits.  Pittsburgh is up first where Ike is hitting .500 in 10 at-bats.  Ike’s next opponent has been more of a challenge.  This year against Atlanta Ike has only hit .233.  However, his OBP is .421 and his isolated power is fairly strong at .189.  Look for him to buck that average trend and hit for some power against the Braves.

Sit ‘Em

Adam Jones | Baltimore Orioles | 84.5 percent
Jones faces a tough road ahead this week with the Blue Jays and then the Yankees. Against the Blue Jays this year, Jones is hitting a weak .217 through 46 at-bats.  His next opponent, the Yankees, have held him to a .216 average through 51 at-bats.  Making matters worse for Jones, he will be facing three left-handed pitchers, against which he is only hitting .261, with a .293 OBP.

Mike Napoli | Los Angeles Angels | 87 percent
Napoli will be playing on the road for both series this week.  His first stop is in Cleveland, at Progressive Field.  His next stop is in St. Petersburg at Tropicana Field.  Collectively at both stadiums, Napoli has an unimpressive career average of only .170, through 48 at-bats.  Worse is the fact that all but one of the starting pitchers that Napoli will face is right-handed.  Against righties this year Napoli is hitting .212 with a .279 OBP.

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As fantasy leagues wind down and head into playoff mode, most owners generally have similar goals in mind at this juncture.

Some owners are right smack in the middle of a battle for playoff position while others are looking forward to next season and the opportunity to start over. What you can expect to find in this week’s edition is a smattering of young players trying to impress their club and hopefully cement a spot on next year’s big league team.

The three players in this week’s spotlight also happen to be the top three most added free agents in CBS Sportsline leagues. Leading off is Mr. No. 3…

Jhoulys Chacin, SP – Colorado Rockies – Owned in 45 percent of CBS leagues

Jhoulys (pronounced Yo-lease) has been up from the minors, pitching primarily in the Rockies’ rotation for most of 2010.  The spotlight shines brighter on him now mainly because he has begun to exhibit the skills to be a top-of-the-rotation type of pitcher for years to come.  

In Chacin’s last four starts he is 3-1 and has allowed only four runs in those starts for an ERA of 1.38.  He has also recorded 24 strikeouts while walking only eight batters.  His ERA now stands at 3.65 on the season.  He is showing that he belongs in the rotation for the remainder of the season as well as next season.  

The 22-year-old Venezuelan righty was signed back in 2004 by the Rockies.  He has ascended through the organization starting in rookie ball and all the way up.  Last season for Double-A Tulsa he started 18 games and was 8-6 with an ERA/WHIP of 3.15/1.18.  Chacin also had an 86:35 K:BB ratio in those starts.  

His ownership will rise to 56 percent and with the Rockies holding onto an outside shot of earning a wild card berth, it’s time to strike.  The Rockies are riding a nine game winning streak and they will continue to lean on Jhoulys to anchor the back-end of their rotation.  You can add him with confidence, especially in keeper leagues as Chacin has proved that he belongs.

Danny Espinosa, 2B – Washington Nationals – Owned in 6 percent of CBS leagues

Mr. No. 2 in the spotlight this week has exploded onto the scene in Washington after being called up on Sept. 1.  Espinosa had a hit in his first game and a home run in the second.  His coming out party was against the Mets on Sept. 6 when he went 4-for-5 with two home runs, six RBI, and 11 total bases.  

Espinosa is simply crushing NL pitching with an obviously unsustainable .355 average, and if you think that number is gaudy, how about his 1.079 OPS?  Allow me to clarify why these numbers are unsustainable (outside of the common sense factor).  Espinosa has less than two full seasons of professional ball under his belt after being drafted in the third round in ’08. 

In ’09 Espinosa batted .264 and…

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The NL-Central boasts a few great pickups this week and one real surprise Sit ‘Em candidate.  While there is great outfield help abound, a couple could use some rest on your bench. 

Low-percentage owned pitchers rounds out the help in this week’s fantasy baseball forecast.  Congratulations to those of you who followed last week’s advice in starting Neil Walker and sitting Dexter Fowler.

Start ‘Em

Jonny Gomes | Cincinnati Reds | 36.1 percent

He hasn’t been as hot as he was before the All-Star break, but Gomes might be able to find a spark this week against some weak pitching and playing in hitter-friendly parks. 

His lifetime stats at Coors field include a .409 average and three home runs in 22 at-bats.  Against the four starters for Colorado, Gomes is hitting .474 with five home runs in 19 at-bats for his career.  He’s also hitting .310 with two home runs through 29 career at-bats against the Pittsburgh starters.

Colby Rasmus | St. Louis Cardinals | 78.7 percent

Look for the newly disgruntled Cardinal to have a great week.  Against Atlanta this year  Colby is hitting .600 in ten at-bats with one home run. 

His bigger strength though, is hitting against the Brewers.  This year against the Brewers Colby is hitting .393 with a .514 OBP and three home runs in 28 at-bats.  Also, all of Colby’s games are away games this week, in which he’s hitting .305 (79 points higher than at home).

Sit  ‘Em

Luke Scott | Baltimore Orioles | 96.7 percent
One of the streakier players in baseball, Scott is headed for…

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It’s time for another ride on the waiver wire roller coaster.  I know some of you are searching high and low for any bit of help with all the trade activity and waiver claims that went down.  These moves can wreak havoc on a fantasy roster. 

My team recently lost the services of Manny Ramirez, who I had to replace with Jeff Keppinger (came off DL)…talk about desperation.  So if you still have something to play for, check out the players in this week’s edition.  You never know who you might uncover…  

Cory Leubke, SP, SD—Owned in zero percent of CBS leagues

You may be wondering (out loud or to yourself) how in the world could anyone recommend picking up a pitcher who is owned by NO ONE in all of CBS leagues??  Well, the simple explanation is that the Padres are in desperate need of a fresh arm in their rotation, and Leubke was tearing through the minors.  

The issue with the Pads’ rotation start with the inning ceiling for their young pitchers.  The 22-year-old phenom Matt Latos has already logged almost 150 innings on the season.  Clayton Richard is at his career high of 167 innings. Throw in Wade LeBlanc, also at a career high of 143 innings, and has had a horrific August posting a 3-3 record with an abysmal 6.47 ERA.  Lastly, let’s not forget to mention Kevin Correia, who managed to one-up LeBlanc by also going 3-3 in the month of August, but with an ERA of 7.20.  

Oh, there’s one more arm in the Pads’ rotation.  How could I overlook Jon “The Savior” Garland?  With 13 wins (good for eighth in the NL) and a sleek 3.29 ERA, Garland has provided the Padres a solid 164 innings of pitching.  He seems to be the only one not wearing down.

[Queue the Superman music]… and flying in to save the rotation, Mr. Leubke.  He has the distinct honor of being drafted three times (18th round in ’04—PIT, 22nd round in ’06—TEX, and the first round in ’07—SD).  He also threw a near perfect game against Team Canada while pitching for Team USA in the ’09 World Baseball Classic.  

Leubke has only logged a combined 114 innings on the season through two levels of the minor leagues. He’s posted an impressive 10-1 record in 17 starts with a 2.68 ERA/.982 WHIP.  While not a dominating strike-out pitcher, Leubke managed to post a very solid 3:1 K:BB ratio.  There is enough upside here to take a chance, especially since SD couldn’t be more in the thick of the playoff race.

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Times are changing and Twitter has quickly become a great source of sports information. Everyone from sports stars to professional sports writers to Internet-famed sports bloggers are writing daily. So TheFantasyFix.com decided it was time to host a roundtable discussion with the LADIES of TWITTER!

So here was the question:

As the conclusion of the 2010 Major League Baseball regular season approaches, we would like to identify those players who fell short of expectations (busts) and those who exceeded expectations (surprises).

Name one bust/surprise to this point of the 2010 season (describe their 2010) and state what you expect from them in the 2011 season. (rebound, maintain, regress etc..)

And away we go!…

Biggest Bust Of 2010: Jason Bay | LF | New York Mets

Jason Bay was a highly coveted free agent after the 2009 season. He was a three-time All-Star who had just hit .267 with 36 home runs and 119 RBI. With the exception of a .745 OPS in 2007, Bay had an OPS of near .900 or better every season from 2003-09.

As a result, the New York Mets rewarded him with one of the worst contracts in Major League Baseball—a four-year, $66 million deal that could top $80 million with a vesting option in the fifth year.

Bay will turn 32 in less than a month. His age, history of injuries (shoulder surgery in 2003 and arthroscopic knee surgery in 2006), and sub-par defense (lifetime UZR/150 of -7.8 in left field) should have deterred the Mets from offering such a lopsided contract. The Boston Red Sox’s best offer in retaining Bay was a four-year deal between $60 million and $65 million; they refused to include a fifth year.

Thus, with his monstrous contract and even higher expectations for on-field performance, Bay is the biggest bust of 2010. He has not played since suffering a concussion in July nor do the Mets expect him to come back before season’s end.

Not only was his fielding below average (-3.9 UZR/150), he struggled with swinging the bat. Bay was batting .259 with six home runs, 47 RBI, and an OPS of .749. He’ll most likely miss 40 percent of the season. The Mets clearly didn’t pay Bay an average of $16.5 million a year for him to play bad defense, hit an offensive wall, and then sit out with an injury.

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