Kuzul

In fantasy baseball, we use statistics all day, everyday. But a surprisingly high number of managers tend to ignore some fundamental statistics generated by the Society for Baseball Research. Get to know a new Sabermetric each week in this new series. This week we’re looking at BABIP.

B atting A verage on B alls In P lay = (Hits – Home Runs) / (At Bats – Strikeouts – Home Runs + Sacrifice Flies)

The purpose of B atting A verage on B alls In P lay, BABIP, is to add a luck factor which can be used when evaluating players previous production. BABIP is a ratio of plate appearances to the numbers of balls put into play. The result is a ratio similar to batting average. However, it is measured on a scale which removes home runs and strikeouts. By removing home runs and strikeouts, BABIP measures the numbers of times which a hit fell when a defender had the opportunity to make a play on it.  If we agree that defenders will get to balls at the same rate over the long run, then BABIP shows us how lucky or unlucky a player is based on their deviation from the mean.

This statistic can be used with both pitchers and hitters, but it has been found to be much more useful in regards to pitching. For hitters, BABIP can be influenced by skill much more than luck.  A hitter has the ability to run out infield singles and shoot gaps to influence BABIP. But in the case of a pitcher who faces many different hitters, BABIP will fall gravitate to a mean. Research has found that the mean for BABIP is around .300 and the conclusion can be drawn that anyone with a higher BABIP is unlucky (lucky/good for hitters) .. .lower than .300 and you’re lucky (unlucky/bad for hitters).

When evaluating pitching, BABIP can be used to explain other statistics like standard ERA and WHIP. A high BABIP is generally a sign that a pitcher will improve upon their previous production. The higher BABIP means that more hits are falling which have a negative impact on ERA and WHIP. But we expect BABIP to be around .300. and in order for that to take place, we expect a regression to bring the average to the mean. So to get to .300, there will be a period of low BABIP to account for the higher BABIP in the past.

Lets look at some examples

How bad was Mike Pelfrey in July? Well, to go along with his 10.01 ERA, Pelfrey put up a insane BABIP of .482! Seriously, half of the balls which were put into play fell for base hits. There is no way that a rate like that could ever keep going. Even with his amazing start, his BABIP is .342 for the year, so we should expect improvement to finish the season off. But keep in mind that Pelfrey has a career BABIP higher than .300, so it may not be a serious improvement.

On the flip side of BABIP this year is Mat Latos . He has put together a very strong year so far and his BABIP is down to .234. Again, we should expect this rate to trend towards the mean. So should we expect Latos to have a severe downswing?  No … but we should not expect him to keep up the same rates he’s produced so far. We should expect his rates to increase from where they are today.  If the numbers don’t increase … he’s a lucky man.

One last thing to take into account when evaluating BABIP is the defense behind the pitcher.  Earlier I stated that we need to work with the assumption that defenders will get to balls at the same rate over the long run. However, it is safe to assume that pitchers for teams with good defense have a lower BABIP than a pitcher who is on a team with bad defense. So take that into account when looking at numbers that haven’t deviated far from the mean. Use the entire teams BABIP and compare that with the pitchers BABIP to adjust your assumptions.

For fantasy purposes, BABIP is a great tool to use to gauge some hidden value. It can be used to sell high or buy low. On draft day, use BABIP to discount a break out season or to justify an upcoming rebound year. In our game we need all the help we can get, if you’re not using BABIP, you’re not seeing the whole picture.

Written by James Weston exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Twitter  @TheRealJamesA .

Who are some other BABIP extremists?  
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter@TheFantasyFix

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While 2010 has been the year of the pitcher, it’s also becoming the year of the injury. The Philadelphia Phillies placed slugging giant Ryan Howard on the DL today to the dismay of many fantasy baseball owners.

He joins the ever growing list of injured All-Stars including teammate Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Troy Tulowitzski, Ian Kinsler, Justin Morneau and Jason Bay to name a few (trust me there’s plenty more).

Although scans were negative on his ankle, he will still be out for at least two weeks. So who do you pick up to pick up the slack? Lets take a look…

Begin Slideshow

Greeting sports fans, and welcome to this special analysis of the trade deadline moves and their impact on fantasy players.  There was a flurry of activity leading up to the July 3 non-waiver deadline, with some teams taking advantage and improving their teams, while others stood by idly and didn’t make any moves. 

The rampant rumors of Jayson Werth, Adam Dunn et al. being moved did not materialize.  In any event, there is plenty of impact to fantasy values that will affect a number of players and teams.  Here are a few of them…

BIG, BIG WINNERS

Matt Capps, RP, MIN
The National’s All-Star closer had already racked up 27 saves for the last-place club.  He will be in line to improve on that number now that he will be closing for a pennant-contending team.  Capps has been a great fantasy contributor providing three wins in addition to his 27 saves.   He has posted a 39:9 K:BB ratio thus far, along with a more than respectable 2.68 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.  The move to Minnesota is a big plus for owners of Capps where his already high fantasy value will get a boost. 

Drew Storen, RP, WAS
The Nationals began the Storen era in Washington by clearing the way to the closers role with the trade of Capps.  The word out of Washington was that Storen would share the closing duties with Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett.  But smart money would have Storen closing on a regular basis before season’s end.  Storen’s season began on May 17 and to date, he has posted a 2.45 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a 28:14 K:BB ratio.  He has also contributed with three wins out of the ‘pen.  Fantasy owners are scrambling to pick up Storen who is number one on the Most Added Players List (ESPN) with a 34.6 percent ownership. 

Jake Westbrook, SP, STL
The Cardinals acquired Westbrook in the three team deal which saw Ryan Ludwick get shipped off to San Diego.  St. Louis was in desperate need of solidifying the back end of their rotation for a run at the division crown.  They have been patching their rotation with an over-the-hill Jeff Suppan and the unimpressive Blake Hawksworth occupying the slots of Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny, both on the DL.  Westbrook had been very hittable this season, but began to turn it around after the All-Star Break.  In four starts since (25.2 IP) he had a 3.86 ERA and 18:9 K:BB ratio.  He gains a good deal of value by moving to a contender and getting to work with Dave Duncan.  In his first start for the Cards, he put up the following line: 6 IP/4 H/2ER/1 BB/7 K’s.  He’s only owned in 8.3 percent of fantasy leagues (ESPN). 

NOT AS BIG, BUT STILL WINNERS

Evan Meek/Joel Hanrahan, RP, PIT – Both will see an increase in value with Dotel off to greener pastures.  They will share save opportunities going forward, but Meek has the higher ceiling.

Brett Wallace, 3B, HOU – After Lance Berkman was shipped to the Yankees, Wallace was acquired from Toronto and will be given a shot to be the everyday 1B.

John Jay, OF, STL – Jay seized the OF spot vacated when Ryan Ludwick was traded to SD.  He has a .366 BA with 45 hits in 51 games on the season.

BIG, BIG LOSERS

Jon Rauch, RP, MIN
Mr. Rauch lost most of his fantasy value when Mr. Capps was acquired.  After Joe Nathan went down for the season, Rauch stepped in and did an admirable job as the closer for the Twins.  He converted 21 out of 25 save opportunities.  However, his underlying stats were a little less than impressive–29 K/43 H in 39 IP and opponents were batting .277 against him.  For his career, Rauch has converted only 26 out of 44 save opportunities, not exactly the kind of numbers that instill confidence for a pennant-chasing team.  His ownership has plummeted from 98.8 percent to 66.5 percent (ESPN) in the last seven days and will continue to drop with every save Capps accrues.  

Octavio Dotel, RP, LA
Dotel is another closer who lost a great deal of value after he was dealt to Los Angeles to solidify the Dodgers’ bullpen.  He was able to compile a respectable number of saves—21 out of 26 opportunities for a terrible Pirates club.  In addition, Dotel posted a better than expected  48:18 K:BB ratio with 35 HA in 41 IP.  In L.A. he will have almost no chance to add to his saves total with Jonathan Broxton firmly entrenched as the Dodgers stopper.  Dotel has seen his value take a nose-dive in the last seven days, dropping from 95.6 percent ownership to 74.1 percent (ESPN). 

Jorge Cantu, 1B, TEX
As the everyday 1B for Florida, Cantu’s value was significantly higher before his trade to Texas.  With the Rangers, Cantu’s role will be reduced to starting primarily against left-handed pitching and pinch-hitting, according to the team.  It was originally thought that Cantu would provide a few starts at 2B to fill in for the injured Ian Kinsler, but that was before Texas acquired Christian Guzman for exactly that purpose.  His value surely would have increased with 2B eligibility.  However, for now Cantu will not have a major impact on fantasy rosters unless his role changes.  His ownership has dropped from 92.4 percent to 85.5 percent (ESPN) and will continue to drop as long as he’s not in the starting lineup on a regular basis.

NOT AS BIG, BUT STILL LOSERS

Kosuke Fukudome, OF, CHI – Desperately needed a change of scenery and to escape Lightnin’ Lou’s doghouse.  He’s only seen 37 AB’s in July with 2 HR/2 RBI.

Miguel Tejada, 3B/SS, SD – His offensive skills were eroding before being acquired by SD.  Now that he’s playing at the spacious Petco, you can expect even less… three hits so far in 15 AB’s for the Padres.

Kerry Wood, RP, NYY – After his trade to the Yankees, Wood’s chances of winning a ring have significantly increased, but his chances for save opportunities is zilch even if he does stay healthy.

*Written by Rosti Satanovsky exclusively for thefantasyfix.com . 
You can follow him on Facebook or Twitter@TheSportsFariah   

Who do you think is the BIGGEST WINNER or LOSER?
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter@TheFantasyFix

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Still holding on to Chone Figgins or Aaron Hill? Fantasy baseball owners may want to consider cutting ties with these big name underachieving players. You will be shocked at these comparisons.
 
Check out these numbers and ask yourself whether you would like to add this player if he was available on the waiver wire in your league: .264/.325/.382 with 45 R, 42 RBI, and two SB.

The correct answer is no; leave Pablo Sandoval on the wire.
 
However, it is unlikely that you will be faced with such a situation, as Sandoval is owned in a stupefying 95.4 percent of leagues (ESPN). Fantasy owners always hold on too long because it hurts to let go of an early draft pick or a big name, but sometimes it is best to cut the cord.

So, here are a few guys whom it is time to give up on, and the guys you should replace them with.
 
Percentages are taken from ESPN.

 
Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals, 100 percent owned
 
Relax—you do not have to run to your computer and drop Butler, but you have to know that his value is based more on where he was drafted than on his actual performance.

Obviously, his .312 batting average is excellent (14th among big leaguers with at least 250 ABs), but his power numbers are pedestrian for a first baseman (29 players who qualify at first have more homers than Butler’s 10), and his counting numbers are just average (50 R, 51 RBI).
 
The point here is that Butler is easily replaceable, especially since he plays at one of the deepest (if not the deepest) offensive positions in the game. So, if he is not droppable, what should you do with him? Use his draft position value to upgrade through a trade.
 
You might be able to simply do a one-for-one swap of first basemen for a guy who was drafted lower but is outperforming Butler (i.e. Paul Konerko or Aubrey Huff), or you could package Butler and a No. 3 or 4 fantasy starter and try to land an ace for your rotation (see how I ranked the starters for the rest of the season here.)

If you can pull off a two-for-one trade, you can fill your first base slot with…
 
Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins, 52.8 percent owned

Not that you need me to tell you because you can see the chart for yourself, but Sanchez has been every bit as good as Butler this year.

Nothing in Sanchez’s peripheral stats indicates he is due for a significant regression either. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is slightly higher than the average at .323 but is not a significant concern, and his plate discipline is average to above average. According to FanGraphs, Sanchez only strikes out 16.7 percent of the time (sixth best among qualifying first basemen) and has a contact rate of 84.4 percent.
 
Another option to replace Butler if you need power:
 
Ike Davis (27.2 percent owned): .247, 50 R, 15 HR, 52 RBI, 1 SB
 
Other guys I would drop for Sanchez or Davis: the previously mentioned Pablo Sandoval (unless you’re using him at 3B) and Derrek Lee (93.6 percent owned).

Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves, 100 percent owned
 
Again, you do not have to drop Heyward, but you should not be afraid to do so if there are better options available in your league. Sure, Heyward has tons of talent, and someday he will most likely be an elite player, but the rookie is way overvalued simply because of his name.

His 11 homers and eight steals along with a slash line of .274/.386/.459 are good (especially that .386 OBP thanks to a 13.7 percent walk rate), but he has been at best only a top-40 outfielder so far. With a BABIP of .335 and a strikeout rate of 25.5 percent, it is hard to see Heyward improving significantly this season.
 
So, like Butler, you might be able to swap Heyward straight up for a better outfielder with less name value (i.e. Angel Pagan, Andres Torres, Hunter Pence), or if you can pull off a two-for-one trade, you can fill your vacant outfield spot with…
 
Luke Scott, Baltimore Orioles, 62.1 percent owned
 
Scott is a legitimate power hitter. Again according to FanGraphs, he is hitting a home run every 16 at-bats, and he is tied for seventh in the league with a .268 ISO (Isolated Power measures a hitter’s raw power based on his ability to get extra-base hits). If he continues to hit within 10 points of his current .279 average, Scott could easily be a top-30 outfielder the rest of the way.
 
Other options to fill a vacant outfield spot:

Tyler Colvin (25.0 percent owned): hitting .268 with 16 HR and a higher ISO than Scott (.280)
 
If you need speed, Jose Tabata (19.8 percent owned): hitting .294 with 10 steals since he was called up on June 9.
 
Other guys I would drop for Scott: B.J. Upton (98.2 percent owned), Adam Jones (93.1 percent owned), Nick Markakis (95.1 percent owned), Johnny Damon (87.4 percent owned), and Carlos Lee (89.9 percent owned).
 
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student who is beyond depressed that summer is almost over. You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.

Got any other players you’re about to give up on?

Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix.

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What a rough year for second basemen! As if fantasy owners didn’t have enough trouble working around Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler injuries–now Martin Prado, one of the years best runs producers, goes down with a broken knuckle on his pinkie. So assuming you were playing Prado at second and not third, who are the waiver wire options to replace all those wonderful runs and sweet batting average? Let’s take a look…

Begin Slideshow

A quick look at the past week’s least owned and most productive. Everything from the hitting streaks of Chris Johnson & Raul Ibanez to Anibal Sanchez’s one-hitter. Can these guys keep it up?

BOMBERS

Andres Torres (48% owned)
5 R / 1 HR / 4 RBI / 2 SB / .367
Torres has been torrid in the past month. He’s batting .317 with 23 R, seven HR, and 20 RBI. Not to mention the five steals. From Huff to Posey to Torres, the Giants have some hot hitters as of late.

Juan Pierre (43% owned)
7 R / 5 RBI / 4 SB / .440
In what world does the leader in stolen bases, only owned in less than half the leagues? (its a rhetorical question if you didn’t figure that out). Pierre can hands down win you this category every week, so besides his low average he should be on your team.

Danny Valencia (5% owned)
5 R / 1 HR / 7 RBI / .565
Since being called up and owning third base for Minnesota, Valencia has batted a sweet .384. Nicknamed “The Franchise”, Valencia became the first Twins rookie this week to have back to back four-hit games.

Chris Johnson (8% owned)
3 R / 2 HR / 5 RBI / 1 SB / .500
The hot bat of Johnson is on a 14-game hitting streak. His power has finally found its way into the majors too, hitting four homers in the past 11 games.

Matt Joyce (1% owned)
3 R / 3 HR / 10 RBI / .261
It’s hard not to join in the fun when playing for a good team. In the past fifteen games, Joyce has increased his average from .175 to .232.

Raul Ibanez (59% owned)
5 R / 2 HR / 5 RBI / .435
Ibanez has been on the top of his game for the past four years so this year was a bit of a surprise to fantasy owners with a poor first half of play. He has picked up recently with a ten-game hitting streak and three homers in that span. At 59% owned, there is a chance Ibanez is on the waiver wire in lighter leagues.

HURLERS

Kevin Slowey (57% owned)
14 IP / 2 W / 7 K / 0.64 ERA / 0.64 WHIP
Total season numbers aren’t anything to brag about but the past two games have been gems – although against two of the worst teams in the league, Baltimore and Seattle. One amazing stat though is that Slowey hasn’t walked more than one batter in a game in the past 16 starts.

R.A. Dickey (32% owned)
14 IP / 1 W / 8 K / 0.00 ERA / 0.57 WHIP
Although Dickey has struggled to get a win in the past seven starts (1-4, 2 no decisions), his ERA is only a measly 2.33. At least we know its not Dickey’s fault for the dreadful 9-17 record in July.

Anibal Sanchez (23% owned)
9 IP / 1 W / 8 K / 0.00 ERA / 0.22 WHIP
In Thursdays game against the Giants, Sanchez was one walk and one hit away from a perfect game. This was Anibal’s only win in the month of July for five starts though. Hopefully this will lead into a strong August.

Brett Myers (44% owned)
9 IP / 1 W / 12 K / 1.00 ERA / 0.56 WHIP
Myers manhandled the Cubs, pitching a complete game four-hitter while striking out 12. Myers seems to like the heat and has dominated teams in July. In those five games Brett has a 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and averaged 7.5 K/9.

Josh Tomlin (3% owned)
12.1 IP / 1 W / 7 K / 1.46 ERA / 0.73 WHIP
In his second career start, Tomlin picked right back up from where he started in his dominance over the Yankees. Josh has only allowed one run in both games. Now don’t get too excited, Tomlin is in no way supposed to be this good. As of right now he is a lucky rookie, trying to make an impression but I do wonder how he amounted a 51-24 minor league record…

Brad Mills (0% owned)
7 IP / 1 W / 4 K / 0.00 ERA / 0.71 WHIP
In his first start of the season, Mills destroyed Baltimore (shocker!) and only gave up two hits over seven innings. I’d like to see him pitch well against a better team before deciding if he’ll stay in the majors.

Miguel Batista (0% owned)
7.1 IP / 1 W / 6 K / 0.00 ERA / 0.95 WHIP
Reliever Miguel Batista had the honor to fill in for rookie phenom, Stephen Strasburg (jeez… no pressure or anything). Well fill in he did, pitching five innings of scoreless ball, allowing only three hits and striking out six. Unfortunately its only a nice story, seeing as how he has given up 25 runs in only 56 innings.

Article written by Evan Marx exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com . That’s right, exclusively… I ain’t no cheating man.

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THE NUMBERS GAME
 
Start ‘Em :

Jorge Cantu (89 percent) : Start him, or if you can, pick him up and then start him. He is only owned in 89 percent of leagues and most recently trending downward. He’s going ot be streaking up soon. He will be entering one of the hitter-friendliest parks in the bigs as well as one of the most hitter-friendly lineups in the bigs. This week Texas faces Seattle and Oakland. Cantu’s career numbers against both teams: In over 150 at bats Jorge is hitting .297 with four home runs. He doesn’t have great career power numbers against these teams, yet he has hit for an average almost 25 points above his total career numbers and with the devastating lineup around him his RBI chances will skyrocket.

Josh Willingham (89 percent) : Just like Jorge, start ‘em if ya got ‘em. Josh has phenomenal numbers at Chase Field (.333 AVG, .360 OBP, .964 OPS through 48ABs) one of the league’s better hitter’s parks. The start of August ushers in Josh’s historically best month for home run hitting (1 HR/20 AB vs. a career 1 HR/ 24 AB w/o Aug.) and second-best month for batting average (.280 avg. vs. a career avg. .261 w/o Aug, nearly 20 points higher).

Rajai Davis (69 percent):   His speed is great but when you account for his great career hitting numbers against KC and at home, he makes more of a complete fantasy impact.  Career numbers against KC: .366 AVG. with an OBP of .451. If he can keep raking at this pace his potential for swipes could jump this upcoming week. After KC he plays at home where he plays against Texas, hitting a .314 clip against them this year, nearly 40 points above this year’s numbers. You also have to take into account that Rajai has a career post all-star average 50 points higher than before the Midsummer Classic, as well as an OPS that’s over 140 points higher. His hot pace continues with 11 hits in his last 33 at bats and five stolen bases as well over the course of the last 15 games.

Sit ‘Em:

David Wright: Against both the Braves and Phillies this year, David Wright is hitting a pathetic .163 through 49 at bats with only two home runs.  His average at Citizens Bank is 46 points below his career average. His average against the three Braves starting pitchers is .247 through 73 at bats. His news facing the Phillies isn’t much better. He’ll be facing the murderer’s row of pitching: Oswalt, Hamels, and Halladay. His career against these pitchers is a little better, .269, but has only one home run in 52 at bats. His recent cold streak should help increase the uneasiness too. Through his last 15 games he’s hitting .216 with a .585 OPS, ouch!

Matt Kemp:   One out of every three hits against the Padres for Matt Kemp is a home run. The bad thing is, that’s through 26 at bats.  The Padres are holding Matt Kemp to a weak .192 average this season.  The 4 starters that he will face are holding him down to an even worse .184 avg.

Carl Crawford:   Against the Blue Jays this year he’s hitting .226 in 31 at bats. He’s also hitting .250 for his career against the starting pitchers that he’ll face up against. Crawford has also been a victim of poor hitting lately. He has a .217 average and .577 OPS through his last 15 games played. (Insert America’s Funniest Home Video ball-to-crotch punch line here.)
 

Two-Start Pitchers:

Travis Wood (15.1 percent) :   Start this rookie sensation. His first start is at the cavernous PNC park, the fourth-worst park for home runs. Pitching against that Pirate lineup should raise a brow or two as well. Pittsburgh is hitting a weak .248 against lefty pitching. Start No. 2 for Travis Wood takes place in Chicago against the under achieving Cubs. There’s obviously not much history with this rookie against the Cubs, however he did have a great outing earlier on, giving up two runs off of two hits in seven innings.

Mat Latos:   Here’s another good two-start young phenom for this upcoming week. First he starts at Dodger Stadium against a team that he worked over pretty well earlier on in the season. As well, Latos holds lefties in check to a .188 BAA, neutralizing the better hitters of LA’s lineup (Xavier Paul, Andre Ethier, James Loney). Latos likes to minimize the home run threat with his great GB/FB ratio of .93.  His second start comes against the D-backs in the desert. Arizona’s average against righties is bad enough for 22nd at .252.  Adding to the potential for fantastic fantasy numbers for Latos is Arizona’s horrible strikeout rate. They lead baseball with 708 strikeouts against righties. Next closest…Florida with 632.  Expect a lot of whiffs for Latos.

 
Other Lesser-Known Two-Start SPs To Consider:

Clayton Richard (30.5 percent) – Same opponents as Latos above and always potential for a big game.

Randy Wells (9 percent) – This guy is on fire through his last three starts.  He has only allowed only three earned runs in 19.2 innings in the last three starts.

Written by James Bryce exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com .

Agree or Disagree with James? Leave a comment or reply to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix

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From the perennial all-stars of Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, and Evan Longoria to the surprise hammer of Jose Bautista, third base has always been stacked with big bats. Aramis Ramirez is finally back on track while Chipper Jones seems to be gearing up for getting out. Here are the rankings for the remainder of the season:

Tier One

1. David Wright, NYM (100% owned)
The heart of the Mets, Wright is the definition of a MVP. Yes the Mets have some big names but Wright really has been carrying them all season. Solid numbers all around and as good a chance as anyone to hit the 30-30 mark this year. Wright will surpass Mets legend Mike Piazza this year for number two on the team’s RBI list as well. Not bad for someone in only their sixth year.

2. Evan Longoria, TAM (100% owned)
The minute Longoria stepped into the bigs, he was a star. Nothing changed in the first half, nothing will change in the second half. Stolen bases this year, puts Longoria at the same level with Wright.

3. Alex Rodriguez, NYY (100% owned)
If Derek Jeter is the brain of the Yankees, then A-Rod is the braun. A slight slowdown may occur while Alex is trying hit number 600 but as soon as they weight is alleviated it blue skies as far as the eye can see. Last year A-Rod hit over 50 points higher in the second half of play.

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Tier Two
4. Kevin Youkilis, BOS (100% owned)
Not a true third baseman, but eligible nonetheless. On pace for his usual strong numbers and should be able to top 100 runs this season.

5. Ryan Zimmerman, WAS (99% owned)
Zim is on pace to pretty much duplicate every category as last year. The numbers are so similar, its eerie. Plus he’s being paid $6.35 million this year. Anyone see where I’m going with this? Yes that’s right–Ryan Zimmerman is THE SIX MILLION DOLLAR MAN! I knew it!

6. Adrian Beltre, BOS (99% owned)
Simply put, Beltre needed out of Seattle. Yes he had a few decent seasons there, but the expectations were never met after leaving LA. Only one other time in Beltre’s 13-year career has he hit over .300 and that was his 2004 mega monster year. There hasn’t been any signs of him slowing down, so expect a consistent second half.

7. Aramis Ramirez, CHC (97% owned)
Patient Fantasy owners waited and finally have been rewarded. It was a strange first half for Ramirez but all looks to be on track. Since his return on June 25th, A-Ram has hit six homers, 16 RBIs, 16 Runs and bumped his average up 57 points. Aramis will be one of the top performers of the second half.

8. Mark Reynolds, ARI (98% owned)
Reynolds is as consistent as the wind. Huge power, zero finesse. You would think that in his third season, Mark would be improving his average but instead its barely above the Mendoza line. One-third of Reynolds hits are dingers, so while he may be winning you home runs every week, he is single-handedly losing your BA column too.

9. Jose Bautista, TOR (95% owned)
Hell if Reynolds is second tier then so is Bautista. I barely make predictions, but at this point I think Jose will finish the year strong and then fade back into grey like the rest of his career. Enjoy it while it lasts folks!

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Tier Three
10. Michael Young, TEX (99% owned)
The model of consistency, Young became the Rangers all-time hits leader this year with 1,748. Split stats are virtually equal over his ten year career. A .300-plus average is a guarantee for the second half.

11. Martin Prado, ATL (98% owned)
Where did this kid come from? Numbers are slightly better than last year in a few less AB already. Can’t wait to see where his end of season numbers finish. Only trails in Runs to Youk. You could say he’s the main reason the Braves are on top.

12. Pablo Sandoval, SF (96% owned)
He’s not the Kung-Fu Panda on ’09, but expect better second half numbers at least. It’s just a matter of time before Pablo joins the Giants hitting parade.

13. Casey McGehee, MIL (93% owned)
In his second season (not counting 24 AB in 2008), we are seeing a slowdown, most likely due to a long season which McGehee is just not accustomed to yet. I believe Casey will get his second breath shortly and finish up the season where he started it… HOT!

14. Michael Cuddyer, MIN (96% owned)
Following a monster 2009 season, Cuddyer has been solid this year. You can expect as least the same if not better for the remainder. Has a 14-game hitting streak right now.

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Tier Four
15. Juan Uribe, SF (77% owned)
Uribe carried the Giants before Aubrey Huff woke up and Buster Posey joined the team.

16. Jorge Cantu, TEX (86% owned)
We’ll have to see how this pans out in Texas with all the extra competition at first base. Mitch Moreland will supposedly get most of the right handed pitches with Cantu getting lefties.

17. Chone Figgins, SEA (87% owned)
Seattle clearly hasn’t inspired the speedster but at least he’s racking up steals. Second half career numbers show he will have a better finish.

18. Ty Wigginton, BAL (71% owned)
Things have slowed down since the beginning of June, but still a viable option.

19. Placido Polanco, STL (92% owned)
Runs and average… not much more.

20. Chase Headley, SD (62% owned)
Started off really strong, hit a huge slump. RBIs way too low for someone who’s been batting clean-up.

21. Neil Walker, PIT (40% owned)
Nice surprise for Pittsburgh. Excellent hitter.

22. Scott Rolen, CIN (88% owned)
Rolen has been great so far, but its been a long time since Rolen finished with a solid full season.

23. Miguel Tejada, SD (74% owned)
Not the All-Star we once loved, but should fit in nicely in San Diego. Should definitely have better numbers moving forward.

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Tier Five
24. Chris Johnson, HOU (18% owned)
13-game hitting streak 15 R / 4 HR / 20 RBI in 126 AB. Keep an eye on this kid!

25. Gordon Beckham, CHW (86% owned)
Hitting better as of late, but still hasn’t blossomed.

26. Alberto Callaspo, LAA (68% owned)
Decent first half. Just traded to Angels & has third locked down.

27. Jose Lopez, SEA (68% owned)
One of the biggest busts of the year. Injured hamstring now, no signs of coming around any time soon.

28. Pedro Alvarez, PIT (65% owned)
Average is low, but this kid has big power. Two back-to-back home run games against Milwaukee last week.

29. Kevin Kouzmanoff, OAK (40% owned)
Batting slightly above his career average and almost has as many runs already as all of 2009.

30. Ian Stewart, COL  (84% owned)
Piss-poor batting average but may be able to hit 25 homers for the second straight season.

31. Chipper Jones, ATL (65% owned)
Only two years ago he batted .364. Now Chipper can barely bat .250. Tail end of his career.

32. Casey Blake, LAD (35% owned)
Average player. Splits show he will have a slightly slower second half.

Agree or Disagree with the rankings?
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix

Article written by Evan Marx exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com . Evan tried wearing a moustache today but decided he just wasn’t cool enough. sigh…

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MLB Fantasy Baseball Post ASB Positional Ranks: Catcher

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According to Mark Berman of Fox 26 in Houston , the Astros and Phillies have agreed in principle to a trade that would send Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia. 

Berman’s sources report that all players and moneys that would be exchanged have been agreed on, but both teams await Oswalt to waive his no-trade clause.

Oswalt is scheduled to take the mound for the Astros this Friday. 

Trade details and fantasy baseball spin to follow.

Follow us on Twitter for more updates @TheFantasyFix.

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The time has come again as yet another phenom is set to introduce himself to the baseball world. Outfield super-prospect Domonic Brown will finally get his long awaited opportunity to shine in the City of Brotherly Love.

His promotion to the big club does not yet signal a changing of the guard, but rather a move necessitated by injury. Starting center fielder Shane Victorino landed on the 15-day DL earlier today with an abdominal strain.

Despite getting the call, the injury to Victorino could easily be viewed as detrimental for Brown. The trading of outfielder Jayson Werth is now a near impossibility, which in turn means Brown’s major league stint is likely to be short-lived. When Victorino returns, the same trio of experienced outfielders will be blocking his path to regular at bats. Raul Ibanez has picked up the slack in July hitting .325 with 12 RBI, and despite hitting only .241 since June 1st, Shane Victorino and bench will never be synonymous.

But let’s not overlook one all-important possibility: Domonic Brown blowing away the Phillies brass with his exceptional talent and dynamic play on the field. If he hits .400 with a couple of bombs, steals some bags and re-energizes the club, sending him back to Lehigh Valley sure won’t be easy. GM Ruben Amaro would be put in an unenviable spot with that decision on his hands, and it’s not implausible to think he’ll have to face that decision head on.  

Brown, the number one rated prospect according to Baseball America, was originally the 607th selection in the 20th round of the 2006 amateur draft. The Phillies took a flyer on Brown’s raw potential, and are about to be rewarded beyond their wildest dreams back in ’06. You reap what you sow, and the Phils earned it with great scouting work.  

The definition of a tools player, Brown can impact the game and fantasy lineups, in a multitude of ways. He can hit for average, batting at least .291 in his last four minor league seasons. He’s taken it up a notch in AAA, batting .346 in 28 games. He gets on base, having drawing 37 BB in 2010 for a .391 OBP. He can run, stealing 22 bases in ’08, 23 in ’09 and 17 thus far in ’10. At 6’5″, he continues to grow into his frame and develop his power stroke. Prior to this year his previous season high for HR was 14. Through 93 games in ’10, he’s hit 20. His previous season high for RBI was 64. He’s already knocked in 68 runs in ‘10.

Dynasty league owners know that the “Total Package” has long since been stashed away. But Brown is still available in a decent number of straight keeper leagues, and owned in less than 50 percent of re-draft leagues. While his major league timetable in 2010 is a relative unknown, the risk is certainly worth the reward. Worst case scenario: two weeks of an ultra-talented player in a loaded lineup. Best case scenario: he tears the cover off the ball and forces the Phillies hand. While the latter is an unlikely outcome, when talking about a skilled athlete like Brown, nothing is out of the question.

Update: Brown went 2-3, with 2 runs scored and 2 RBIs in his debut.

Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com.  Adam writes like most people breathe… effortlessly. The Fantasy Fix salutes him!

Think Domonic Brown will force the Phils hand?
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