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Fantasy Baseball’s Top 50 Pitchers Post All-Star Break

Carl Pavano, Jeff Niemann, Colby Lewis. According to ESPN’s Player Rater (PR), these three have been top 25 starting pitchers to date… and none of them were drafted in ESPN standard ten-team leagues. In fact, of the top 60 pitchers on the PR, 22 of them went undrafted.  Think pitching is deep? 

Moreover, the guys at the top are truly elite.  Of pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, an astounding 17 of them have an ERA under 3.00.  So, you may not be hurting for pitching, but there are still plenty of guys out there who remain undervalued for you to target either through trade or on the waiver wire. All ownership percentages are from ESPN. (stats as of Sunday, July 25, 2010)

TIER 1
1.    Adam Wainwright (100% owned)
2.    Josh Johnson (100% owned)

Each has a WHIP right around 1.00, and Johnson has a marginal five strikeout lead over Wainwright.  The only differences between them are Johnson leads in ERA 1.61 to 2.02, and Wainwright has four more wins.  Johnson is more likely to see his ERA regress towards 2.00 than he is to win more games than Wainwright the rest of the way.  So, while wins are not the best way to evaluate pitchers, they still count in fantasy, and their value cannot be ignored.

3.    Roy Halladay (100% owned)
4.    Cliff Lee (100% owned)
5.    Tim Lincecum (100% owned)
6.    Jon Lester (100% owned)
7.    Jered Weaver (100% owned)

Weaver is striking out almost ten batters per nine innings while walking just over two batters per nine, and all of his peripheral numbers indicate that what he has been is what he is going to be.  If you have a stud starter with a lot of name value (say, Justin Verlander or Johan Santana), do not hesitate to swap them straight up for Weaver.

TIER 2

10.    Zach Greinke (100% owned)

In his last 7 starts, Greinke is 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 7.98 K/9.
The “buy-low window” is probably closed by now as Greinke looks poised for a monster second-half.

11.    Justin Verlander (100% owned)
12.    Ubaldo Jimenez (100% owned)
13.    Yovani Gallardo (100% owned)
14.    David Price (100% owned)
15.    Chris Carpenter (100% owned)
16.    Clayton Kershaw (100% owned)
17.    Dan Haren (100% owned)

Haren has always been a notorious first-half stud and second-half bust, but this year he had a disappointing first half.  This led many to wonder how much worse it would get once he hit the inevitable second-half decline.  However, if he broke the trend in the first-half, why can he not do the same in the second-half?  He is third in the league with 141 K’s.

TIER 3
18.    Matt Cain (100% owned)
19.    Johan Santana (100% owned)
20.    Roy Oswalt (100% owned)
21.    Colby Lewis (98.5% owned)
22.    Tommy Hanson (100% owned)

With a record of 8-6, a 4.12 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, Hanson has not exactly given fantasy owners the return they were expecting on a top 80-ish draft pick.  However, Hanson has pitched better than those numbers indicate.  He is striking out almost a batter more per inning than he did last year at a clip of 9.03 K/9 , his walks are down, and his BABIP is .348 (the higher the number is over .300, the more unlucky the pitcher has been).  If your league redrafted today, Hanson still might be worth a top 80 pick.

23.    John Danks (100% owned)
24.    Tim Hudson (100% owned)
25.    Jeff Niemann (100% owned)
26.    Stephen Strasburg (100% owned)
27.    Mat Latos (100% owned)

Both Strasburg and Latos are going to have their innings limited as we get deeper into the season, but if they were pitching through September, they would both be top 15 pitchers.  Just keep running them out there every time they pitch, and then, use their roster slot to stream pitchers once they hit the shelf.  By doing so, you can still get top 20 value out of that slot in your rotation.

28.    Jaime Garcia (99.9% owned)

Garcia was one of the most difficult guys to rank.  You keep expecting the rookie pitcher with the unusually low HR/9 rate (0.41) and good but not great K/BB rate (2.09)  to regress, but so far it just hasn’t happened.  He is currently third in the majors with a 2.21 ERA and could absolutely continue to be a top 25-30 starting pitcher.

TIER 4
29.    Francisco Liriano (100% owned)
30.    Clay Buchholz (100% owned)
31.    Matt Garza (100% owned)
32.    Max Scherzer (84.1% owned)
33.    Ricky Nolasco (97.9% owned)

In 2009, Nolasco had a 5.76 ERA and 8.93 K/9 before the All-Star break.  He rebounded nicely with a 4.39 ERA and 10.02 K/9 after the break.  This year, he had a 4.55 ERA and 7.64 K/9 before the break, but in his two starts since the break, Nolasco has posted a 4.05 ERA and 10.99 K/9.  See where this is going?

34.    Jonathan Sanchez (99.4% owned)
35.    Wandy Rodriguez (55.4% owned)
36.    Cole Hamels (100% owned)
37.    Ryan Dempster (100% owned)
38.    Carl Pavano (93.1% owned)

Pavano in 2010: 12-6, 3.26 ERA, 1.01 WHIP (!), and 81 K’s to just 19 BB’s. Really?!?!  As mentioned above, the undrafted Pavano is providing substantial value to his owners.  In a 16-team league with 30 man rosters, I got Pavano with pick No. 433.  Now that is value!  The only reason he is not ranked higher is because, well, he is still Carl Pavano.

TIER 5
39.    Gavin Floyd (90.4% owned)
40.    Jason Hammel (26.2% owned)
41.    Javier Vazquez (94.7% owned)
42.    C.J. Wilson (72.3% owned)
43.    Ervin Santana (88.9% owned)
44.    Scott Baker (65.5% owned)

Baker’s increased strikeout rate, decreased walk rate, high BABIP, and inflated FIP all indicate that he has pitched better than it looks on paper.  FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, shows how well a pitcher pitched regardless of how the defense played behind him.  The nice thing about FIP is that it is based on the same scale as ERA.  So, while his ERA is right at 5.00, Baker’s FIP is just over 4.00, and his xFIP (Expected FIP predicts future ERA by adjusting home run rates) is actually below 4.00.

45.    Phil Hughes (100% owned)
46.    Brett Myers (21.3% owned)
47.    Chad Billingsley (95% owned)
48.    Edinson Volquez (73.2% owned)
49.    Kris Medlen (9.8% owned)
50.    Tommy Hunter (67.4% owned)

Both Medlen and Hunter are nice young pitchers with which to fill out the back end of your rotation.  While Hunter’s ownership percentage is substantially higher, Medlen is the guy you would rather own.  He has an impressive 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 92.1 innings, and nothing in his peripherals suggests that he has just been lucky.  Meanwhile, Hunter is 7-0 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in nine starts, but he is striking out less than five batters per nine innings and is receiving 7.3 runs per game of support from his offense.

Just missed the cut: Trevor Cahill (84.8% owned), Jason Vargas (20.8% owned), Shawn Marcum (66.3% owned), Barry Zito (88.2% owned), Ricky Romero (91.4% owned)

Agree or Disagree with the rankings?
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix

Article written by Brett Talley exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Brett is a blackbelt and taught Steven Seagal everything he knows.

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Fantasy Baseball: Chris Coghlan To the DL, Logan Morrison Called Up

Just when you thought you’ve seen it all. BAM!

The latest injury: a torn meniscus during the now common celebratory pie to the face.

That is the unfortunate fate suffered by the pie giver, Marlins outfielder Chris Coghlan.

There is no question this ranks amongst the most bizarre/embarrassing injuries of all time, but how does it impact fantasy circles?

After a red hot .377 and 30-run June, Coghlan reverted back to his April form in July hitting .209 with one RBI.

He’ll miss six to eight weeks, but regardless, his deficient production and wild inconsistency made him a nearly unreliable fantasy option in thinner leagues.

The Marlins have promoted sterling prospect Logan Morrison to the big club to replace Coghlan on the active roster.

A first baseman by trade, Morrison’s 2010 call up had been thwarted to this point by the excellent play of Gaby Sanchez.

At one time trading Sanchez to clear the path for Morrison seemed like a viable option for the Marlins, but that seems far-fetched now with his .301, 11 HR, 45 RBI stat line.

Sanchez played some third base in the minors, and a return to the hot corner could be entertained—but not mid-season.

Morrison is expected to split time in left field with Emilio Bonifacio in the immediate future. If Jorge Cantu is dealt prior to the July 31 deadline, Bonifiacio could be moved to third base and open regular playing time in the outfield.

Morrison played seven games in the outfield for Triple-A New Orleans prior to Coghlan’s injury, so expect the Marlins to be wheelers and dealers this week.

Morrison is an excellent athlete for his size (6’3″, 235 pounds), but it’s unclear whether he can hold his own defensively in the outfield. One thing that is abundantly clear is his mastery in the batter’s box.

He was hitting .307 with six home runs and 45 RBI in the Pacific Coast League prior to getting the call. He injured his shoulder (collision) in May and has played in just 68 games.

He’s incredibly seasoned for a 22-year-old, drawing 48 walks against only 35 strikeouts. A left-handed stick, he hit .314 in 70 at-bats against left-handed pitching.

If the numbers are any indication, Morrison should make a swift adjustment to big league pitching.


Bottom Line:

1. Coghlan is not in danger of losing a starting job when healthy. Despite his on/off play in 2010, he possesses excellent bat control and provides versatility defensively. He can see time at second or third base and left field. However, none of these qualities help the fantasy owner.

2. If Morrison hits, he’s going to play. Bonifacio was wallowing in the minors for good reason. He provides a speed element, but his plate discipline, or lack thereof, will be exposed over the course of regular at-bats. He has yet to draw a walk in 2010. The Fish didn’t call up Morrison to sit and disrupt his maturation. 

3. Who bats leadoff when Bonifacio sits? Does Hanley occupy that spot? If so, this injury could have a confounding effect on his fantasy value and run production.

4. Roster assembly issues likely won’t come into play until 2011. The aftermath of the trade deadline could change matters, but it’s a good bet Sanchez will be taking grounders at third base come spring training.

Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com.  Adam is the epitome of awesome and anyone who doubts it can take it up with him personally on any street corner at any time.

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Fantasy Baseball’s Post All-Star Break Positional Ranks: Second Base

Fantasy baseball sees changes in position depth every year. What starts the season as a weak position may finish as the best, and vice-versa. Entering the season there were 11 second basemen ranked in the Top 100 players in mixed formats. 

Currently, there are only seven active players who will find their name on that Top 100 list, and only three of them were part of the original 11. Let’s take a look at the current rankings for second baseman after the first half of the 2010 season (Injuries Noted):

 

Robinson Cano NYY (100% Owned)    His numbers across the board are great for any position (66-18-63-.332). This is an MVP candidate who will continue to improve, and continue to provide consistent statistical production. 

Chase Utley PHI  (100% Owned)  Chase would be number one if he wasn’t injured, even with Cano’s great season. Utley’s consistency over the past seven seasons cannot be ignored, you can pencil in 100-30-100-.295 ever year. Upon his return from the DL, Utley should be considered the top player.

Rickie Weeks   MIL (100% Owned)  Finally his production is matching his potential (65-19-62-.277). Rickie was the second overall pick in the 2003 player draft, and after this season may be the second overall second naseman taken in 2011 fantasy drafts.

Dustin Pedroia BOS (100% Owned) Similar to Utley, Dustin would be third on the list after putting up excellent numbers (52-12-41-.292) when healthy. He has never had a bad single season in his young career. Look for him to immediately bounce back when he returns. (DL)

 

Tier 1A

Ian Kinsler TEX:  This All Star Second Baseman plays for a first place team with lots of lineup protection. Thus far (53-6-38-.304), and expected for a duplicate second half with the pennant in reach.

Brandon Phillips CIN:   Another player in the midst of a pennant race, and putting up potential career numbers (70-13-33-.288). With the Cardinals and Brewers battling the Reds for Central supremacy, Brandon will need to play to his max if they want to win. Expect an extra effort.

 

Tier 2

Martin Prado ATL:  All Star, First Place Team, NL Hits Leader (67-11-40-.317)

Ben Zobris t TB:  (49-5-44-19-.277) Multi Position Eligible, Continuous production.

 

Tier 3 

Dan Uggla FLA:  (59-15-53-.271) May or May Not be traded to Contender. If so he jumps Zobrist. You have to love his power from this position.

Kelly Johnson ARZ: (57-14-46-.275) Can he keep this up all season for the lowly Dbacks? My magic 8 ball says “Decidedly So.”

Howie Kendrick ANA: (42-7-53-.275)  Still a potential injury risk, but his run production in 2010 is undeniable for a second baseman. Worth a Start in any format.

 

Tier 4 

Gordon Beckham CWS: (26/71-14-3-12-0-.366) Over the Last Month…May be the HOTTEST 2B

Placido Polanco PHI:   (92/288-43-6-30-3-.319) Just back from injury and his timing is great already.

Juan Uribe SF:   (80/312-42-12-51-1-.256) Early Season Utility Super Star. Now Everyday Star.

 

Tier 5

Jose Lopez SEA:  Still Seattle’s Cleanup Hitter with TONS of potential 39 RBI.

Casey McGehee MIL: 13 HR 55 RBI.

Aaron Hill TOR: 13 HR (Great Upside)

Clint Barmes COL:  42 RBI

Ian Stewart COL: 13 HR, 47 RBI

Neil Walker PIT:  (.320 BA)

Chone Figgins SEA:  25 SBs

Ty Wigginton BAL: 16 HR, 48 RBI

Alberto Callaspo LAA:   (40Runs, 8HRs, 43RBI)

 

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C.J. Wilson and Fantasy Baseball’s Two-Start Pitchers For Week 17

Fantasy Baseball’s Pitching Line of the Week:

C.J. Wilson (SP-TEX) 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, W

 

C.J. Wilson chucked eight innings of four-hit baseball, striking out three batters and failed to surrender a walk in a 1-0 victory over the Los Angeles Angels on Friday. Wilson retired 17 of the last 18 batters he faced before giving way to young Neftali Feliz, who saved his 27th game for the Rangers and helped Wilson improve to 9-5 on the season.

 

See Win Probability Game Graph of C.J.’s Win Courtesy of FanGraphs

 

Prior to the 1-0 victory over the Angels, Wilson was 8-5 with a 3.23 ERA and had accumulated a string of nine consecutive quality starts. 

 

Wilson, the pride of Fountain Valley High School, attended Santa Ana Junior College, where he was named MVP of Orange Empire Conference and California’s Junior College Player of the Year Award in 2000. The following year, he was drafted in the fifth round (121st overall) by the Texas Rangers out of Loyola Marymount University.

 

While cruising through the minor leagues in 2003, Wilson suffered an elbow injury which required “Tommy John” surgery. C.J. needed the entire 2004 season to recover and returned to AA action in 2005.

 

Wilson debuted for the Texas Rangers on June 10, 2005 at 24 years of age. He went 1-7 in 24 appearances, finished with a 6.94 ERA and a 1.67 K:BB ratio. 

 

From 2006-2009, C.J. primarily worked out of the bullpen. Following the Rangers trade of Eric Gagne in 2007, Wilson was asked to step into the closers role. He successfully converted his first 11 save opportunities for Texas. Wilson was once again named the Rangers closer in 2008 and converted in 24 of 28 attempts. Despite not being named the closer in 2009, Wilson still earned 14 saves. 

 

Wilson features a fastball, sinker, slider and change-up in his repertoire. Wilson is currently owned in 63 percent of Y! leagues. 

 

The “Double Dipper” is a starting pitcher who will get two starts in the same week. Each Sunday we will preview top three options in each league and highlight streaming options for players owned in less than 50% of Y! leagues.

 

The No Brainers in the NL:

 

Josh Johnson/FLA (@ SF, @ SD) – CY front runner. That’s enough.

Stephen Strasburg/WAS (vs. ATL, vs. PHI) – Tough match-ups, cap on IP, but take his K’s to the bank.

Chad Billingsley/LAD (@ SD, @ SF) – 2-0 in three starts against SD & SF this year.

 

The No Brainers in the AL:

 

Felix Hernandez/SEA (@ CHW, @ MIN) – 63:10 K:BB & 8 QS in last 8.

Francisco Liriano/MIN (@ KC, vs. SEA) – The “Mona Lisa” of match-ups..wait..she’s ugly?

CC Sabathia/NYY (@ CLE, @ TB) – Hasn’t lost since 5/23. 10 straight QS.

 

Warning: Streaming can be lethal. The following are owned in 50% or less of Y! leagues.

 

Jorge De La Rosa/COL (vs. PIT, vs. CHC) – Last start looked like the JDL of old

Brandon Morrow/TOR (vs. BAL, vs. CLE) – 10.01 K/9 will get him the nod

Jon Niese/NYM (vs. STL, vs. ARI) – Three ER or less in last five outings

Joel Pineiro/LAA (vs. BOS, vs. TEX) – The Russian Roulette of “streaming”

Bronson Arroyo/CIN (@ MIL, vs. ATK) – Six QS in last nine.

 

Don’t Touch ‘Em

 

Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brad Bergeson, Zach Duke, Wesley Wright

 

Week 17 One Start Stars Owned in 50% or Less

 

Tommy Hunter/TEX 49% Y! – Saturday @ LAA (TBD)  – 8-0 in 10 starts

Brett Cecil/TOR 30% Y! – Friday vs. CLE (Masterson) – Last three were QS. Daniel Hudson/CWS 5% Y! – Friday @ OAK (Mazzaro) – Tons of K potential

 

Who will win the pitching duel of the week: Josh Johnson or Matt Cain?

Who will be the best 2-Start Pitcher owned in 50 percent or less in week 17?

Leave a comment, or reply to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix

 

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Must or Bust: Is Starlin Castro a Waiver Wire Gem?

by Evan Marx

A quick look at last week’s Fantasy Baseball top performing and least owned players on the waiver wire. Starlin Castro is a hitting machine. Pedro Alvarez back to back double dingers. Fausto Carmona bringing it back to 2007. Can they really keep it up for another week? Check out who’s a Must or a Bust.

SLUGGERS

Jack Cust (6% owned)
8 R / 4 HR / 10 RBI / .444
Jersey Boy Cust was the number one batter for this last week. The one thing he does extremely well is hit home runs and has six homers in the past nine games. Not bad numbers recently considering he only has eight home runs all season. Cust will see increased at-bats with this kind of production and we know he has the ability to hit 30+ dingers in a season. The best part is Jack is batting 60 points above his career average. Good cheap pick-up right now!

Pedro Alvarez (25% owned)
8 R / 4 HR / 8 RBI / .346
The Pirates only saving grace this season is to jump ahead of Houston for second to last place. Still though, they have somehow found a way to score a lot of runs recently, even without Andrew McCutchen. Rookie, Pedro Alvarez, has clearly pushed Andy LaRoche aside and in the past ten games has bumped his average from .214 to .252. The big-boy (6’3″ 223 lbs) has shown his power this week going yard twice in back to back games. “El Toro” should be on every owners watch list, since he will have all the playing time he needs to adjust to the Bigs.

Luke Scott (19% owned)
5 R / 4 HR / 8 RBI / .458
Since returning from the DL, Scott has been on FIRE! Had he not missed the two weeks, we could be looking at 20-22 homers instead of 16. I’d look for a very strong second half, seeing as how Scott is one pace to score more runs, homers and RBIs than in years past. Plus he’s batting .292, way above his dismal .268 career average. Scott is a little shy of the minimum plate appearances but would be tied for sixth in the league for slugging (.567) and tied for 11th in OPS (.924).

Chris Denorfia (1% owned)
6 R / 3 HR / 5 RBI / .429
Taking advantage of an injured Will Venable, Denorfia is trying to prove he deserves to be a starter in an already crowed San Diego outfield. In just 131 ABs, he has 20 Runs and 20 RBIs. The good news is that although the OF is crowed, none of them are doing anything spectacular, leaving Denorfia a fighting chance.

Starlin Castro (23% owned)
5 R / 1 HR / 6 RBI / 2 SB / .481
With Aramis Ramirez back to form, the Cubs have been putting up some big numbers. Castro has been as solid as you could wish for from a rookie and has bumped his average up 34 points since July 1st. In the past ten games he has seven multi-hit games. The home run swing has yet to come (only three in 234 AB) but as he trains more, the muscle will develop. Great keeper option!

Jose Tabata (5% owned)
8 R / 1 HR / 6 RBI / 2 SB / .355
WIth Andrew McCutchen missing the past six games and possibly a handful more, Tabata has stepped in and performed quite well. Another Pirate Rookie looking to make his mark – so keep an eye as to how much the Pirates can play him once McCutchen returns.

Jim Edmonds (1% owned)
5 R / 3 HR / 7 RBI / .500
One of the best Center Fielders since the early ’90s is most likely in his final season. At 40, Edmonds has said he is playing harder than ever knowing this is the final stretch. As much as I love the veteran, he is only a possible pickup in a very deep NL only league.

Delwyn Young (1% owned)
7 R / 2 HR / 7 RBI / .412
Delwyn has managed to get a small amount of playing time considering he is blocked by Neil Walker at 2B and Pedro Alvarez at 3B. Good week but don’t expect a lot here.

Gaby Sanchez (32% owned)
4 R / 2 HR / 7 RBI / 1 SB / .400
Sanchez continues to be a pleasant surprise and is still barely owned in leagues. He has certainly locked up first base for the season and possibly the near future. Marlins prospect Logan Morrison will have to wait a while longer unless Florida can find a way to play them both. Sanchez should end with at least 90/20/90. 

Chris Johnson (2% owned)
5 R / 2 HR / 6 RBI / .455
Johnson looks like he is taking over third in Houston and if the playing time continues so will the homers. Minor League showed us he can hit for power, so just a matter of time…

HURLERS

John Axford (57% owned)
4.2 IP / 1 W / 3 SV / 5 K / 1.93 ERA / 1.07 WHIP
Dethroning the all-time saves leader is quite an accomplishment, although it was more of Trevor Hoffman dethroning himself. Hoffman has pitched much better since his early season woes but Axford has proven to the staff that he can be the Brewers closer of the future. Three saves this week plus a win ain’t bad.

Jeff Francis (6% owned)
7 IP / 1 W / 7 K / 0.00 ERA / 0.43 WHIP
Colorado’s shutout win over Florida was Francis’ best game in an otherwise mediocre season thus far. Low Ks (38), High ERA (4.63), with batters hitting .289 against him doesn’t sound too appetizing. He’s actually given up as many runs as strikeouts.

Fausto Carmona (30% owned)
5 IP / 1 W / 7 K / 0.00 ERA / 0.40 WHIP
Remember when Fausto was really, really good in 2007? I doubt Fausto even remembers, but after two dismal years, he is actually putting together a pretty decent 2010. Three straight wins (and 6-2 in last eight) on a horrible team that can barely score is impressive.

Vin Mazzaro (7% owned)
13.2 IP / 2 W / 10 K / 1.98 ERA / 1.02 WHIP
The pride of Hackensack, New Jersey is off to quite an impressive start. Since being named a starter on June 8th, Vinny really has only had one bad game, but only gave up four runs. In the past five games, he’s pitched 41 innings and only given up nine runs. Mazzaro is definitely outperforming his seven percentage ownership.

Barry Enright (5% owned)
8 IP / 1 W / 8 K / 1.12 ERA / 0.75 WHIP
In his fourth career game, Enright pitched an absolute gem against the Mets, going eight strong, striking out eight and only surrendering one run. His first three games weren’t half bad either although two were for losses. His minor league stats were never anything to write home to Ma about, but they weren’t bad either. Owners may be able to get a few more solid starts from him before batters figure him completely out.

Mark Buehrle (55% owned)
9 IP / 1 W / 2 K / 1.00 ERA / 0.44 WHIP
Buehrle is pretty much right on par for his career averages. You can count on him for a sub four ERA and 13-15 wins a season. In Mark’s last eight, he is 6-2 and lowered his ERA a whole point! This last game against Oakland was his first CG of the season and the 26th of his career.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (43% owned)
6.2 IP / 1 W / 6 K / 1.35 ERA / 0.60 WHIP
We are still far far away from Dice-K of two years ago, but significant strides have been made this year. In the past two game Daisuke has whiffed 11 and only given up three runs. Another strong start and Matsuzaka will be off the waivers wire in the blink of an eye.

Hong-Chih Kuo (16% owned)
4 IP / 1 SV / 4 K / 0.00 ERA / 0.25 WHIP
Kuo has been pure magic for the Dodgers this year. His numbers are just plain sick like Luke Gregerson, J.J. Putz and Evan Meek. Listen to this line and you tell me if you should pick him up – 32 IP / 40 K / 0.84 ERA / 0.74 WHIP / .119 BAA. So not a lot of Wins or Saves, but he will help even out ERA & WHIP for sure.

Randy Wells (48% owned)
7 IP / 1 W / 7 K / 0.00 ERA / 1.14 WHIP
In the past five games, Wells has only surrendered five runs and zero is his last two. He’s also dropped his ERA from 5.21 to 4.07 in that span. Unfortunately as many gems Wells has pitched he also has as many bombs. Hopefully we will see a continued success for the remainder of the season.

Written by Evan Marx, exclusively for www.t hefantasyfix.com . Evan is a Scorpio & wears Old Spice strictly because of the commercials.

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Fantasy Baseball’s Post All-Star Break Positional Ranks: First Base

The first base position in fantasy baseball produces a lot of depth from owners to choose from either via their drafts back in March, or a waiver wire pick-up during the season. With the second half of play underway, let’s take a look at how the first basemen will finish out the season.

In previous seasons, I’ve done just  a “straight” ranking by position, as opposed to a “tiering” system, but have recently found that the tiering system will help you to better distinguish the difference between a Tier-One player and a Tier-two player, ultimately leading to better value.

Tier-One

1) Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals

2) Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers

3) Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies

4) Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees

Nothing new with these top tier guys, as any of these options will provide solid numbers during the second half of play. Albert Pujols is Albert Pujols, and is still the king. Miguel Cabrera certainly is second to no one in fantasy baseball this year, as he’s posting a MVP/Triple Crown type of season.

Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira had up-and-down numbers during the first half of play, but both know how to produce huge numbers after the All-Star break. As the temperature rises, so do the HR and RBI totals for both of these sluggers.

Tier-Two

5) Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds

6) Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers

7) Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox

8) Adrian Gonzalez – San Diego Padres

Again, can’t go wrong with any of these guys. Joey Votto is carrying the Reds offensively right now and has done so all season long, and he could easily be thrown into the Tier-One group. Prince Fielder will probably be staying in Milwaukee the rest of the season, but his numbers should still continue to be around the same mark with the power numbers taking a slight hit.

The on-base percentage (OBP) machine that is Kevin Youkilis is putting together another solid season. Expect more of the same during the second half, as the runs scored, slugging (SLG), and OBP numbers will be near the top of the AL leader board.

I’m sure every Adrian Gonzalez owner is hoping that the Padres acquire a power-bat before the trading deadline passes. Gonzalez currently sits in second place in the NL with 17 intentional-walks, but with pennant races hitting up, I fully expect teams to start treating Adrian like Barry Bonds.

Tier-Three

9) Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins

10) Billy Butler – Kansas City Royals

11) Adam Dunn – Washington Nationals

12) Paul Konerko – Chicago White Sox

13) Carlos Pena – Tampa Bay Rays

Justin Morneau has yet to play a game during the second half due to an injury (surprise!) and is a suspect the rest of the season for poor numbers. Morneau floats around a .300/.360/.550 with an on-base plus + slugging percentage (OPS) over .900 during the first half of play, but when the second half hits, his numbers take a huge hit, posting drops in all categories, especially the home run department. Hopefully, you were able to trade Morneau for a high return before the second half of play started. 

Billy Butler doesn’t have the HR power like most first baseman, but still flat out hits every month. With KC being what it is, Butler will likely be limited as far as his runs scored and the RBI department.

The Nationals want to move Adam Dunn before the trade deadline, but the price is reportedly high, so I see him staying put and signing an extension in D.C.  Dunn has always been known for the high home run totals, walks, and high strike out totals, but he is surprisingly hitting at an average above the .275 mark right now, which is something he simply isn’t known for. The highest average Dunn has ever hit during an entire season is .267 (2009 season).

Another down factor for Dunn is his OBP number this season, as he’s been attacking the zone aggressively, seeing the lowest numbers of pitches per plate appearance during his ten-year career.  Over the past two seasons, Dunn hasn’t hit over 15 home runs post All-Star break since the 2007 season.

Tier-Four

14) Adam LaRoche – Arizona Diamondbacks

15) Aubrey Huff – San Francisco Giants

16) James Loney – Los Angels Dodgers

17) Derrek Lee – Chicago Cubs

18) Lance Berkman – Houston Astros

I’ve had a serious man-crush  on Adam LaRoche all season long. Everyone knows how he tears the second half of play up, but I think we will see his best second half surge ever during the 2010 season. 

Aubrey Huff of the Giants is having his best season since 2008 and has already surpassed his home run totals from last season. Huff’s best month has yet to come, so watch out when the calendar hits August 1st. 

James Loney reminds me of Billy Butler because of their similar numbers, and the fact that he will not hit for a ton of power, but will still have the high AVG and OPS number.

Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman have a lot in common this season, from poor production numbers to the inability to hit left-handed pitching. On the bright side, owners can expect some bounce back from both players. I especially like Lee moving forward, so see if you can grab him from someone for a cheap price. Closing out the season, Lee should hit around the .290 clip and will end with between 20-25 HR.

Tier-Five

19) Ike Davis – New York Mets

20) Gaby Sanchez – Florida Marlins

21) Russell Branyan – Seattle Mariners

22) Justin Smoak – Seattle Mariners

23) Todd Helton – Colorado Rockies

24) Troy Glaus – Atlanta Braves

25) Daric Barton – Oakland Athletics

Most of the Tier-Five guys are part of the youth movement and will be moving up the ranks next season, as they are able to hit for solid power numbers and are reliable late round options for that corner infield position on your team.  

Like most of the Mets roster, Ike Davis is red-hot when playing in Citi Field (.298/.387/.496), but struggles on the road (.212/.272/.400). The good news is that he’s hitting .278 with a .329 OBP against left-handed pitching this season.

Former University of Miami slugger Gaby Sanchez is having a terrific rookie season across all categories. He’s hit left-handed pitching extremely well to this point and hits both while at home and on the road.

Justin Smoak has the power, but has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, which should be expected for a player of his age.

Written by Reggie Yinger, exclusively for the TheFantasyFix.com
Reggie Yinger is a programmer in the IT field and also writes for BaseballPress.com. He previously worked for a Minor League Baseball team and hopes to return to baseball full-time in some fashion. You can follow him on Twitter @sacksjacked.

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Class A and Advanced A Farm Report: Braves Prospect Randall Delgado

Player notes from Class A Advanced and A Ball—from the slumping bat of Derek Norris to the seasoned arm of Randall Delgado.

POSITION PLAYERS:

Marc Krauss, OF Arizona Advanced A Line—.326 BA, 17 HR, 66 RBI

The former Ohio University standout has been on an offensive tear. In 24 games since the minor league all star break he’s batting .423 (44 for 104) with 20 runs, 10 HR and 28 RBI.

He’s raised his batting average 39 points in that stretch. However, as his batting average continues to rise, his walks are on a steep decline.

Since June 1st, his BB:K ratio is an ugly 11:42. Krauss is hitting .330 with RISP and .339 in 121 AB against LHP. Rated amongst the top prospects in the Diamondbacks organization, his bat is not far off. A lack of agility in the outfield could hold him back.

Francisco Peguero, OF San Francisco Advanced A Line—.300 BA, 4 HR, 46 RBI

The 22-year old Peguero was selected to play in the Futures Game during All Star Weekend where he went 1 for 2 at the plate.

He’s followed up a strong 2009 campaign (.353 between NOR & SAL) with an impressive 2010 in the CAL. In his fifth minor league season he’s already matched his high-water mark for RBI in a season with 46 and shattered his previous highs in triples (11) and stolen bases (33).

Peguero is not exactly a picture of patience at the plate, drawing just eight walks in ’09 and 12 walks in 77 games in ’10. He’s batting .359 in 92 AB since the break with 15 RBI. He can rake and he can run, but the question is, can he get on base enough to be top of the order fixture?

Derek Norris, C Washington Advanced A Line—.230 BA, 5 HR, 26 RBI

After batting .317 in May, Norris’ average has taken a monumental nosedive. He hit .220 in June, and through 14 games in July is hitting a putrid .175.

Worse yet, the power he displayed in 2009 in the SAL with 23 HR and 30 doubles has disappeared. He’s slugging .370 with five HR and eight doubles in 2010. However, as disconcerting as those figures may be, he’s maintained his tremendous batting eye and plate discipline.

Norris has drawn 47 BB against 46 K, and, amazingly, is sporting a .407 OBP. With his refined approach it’s hard to imagine that this is more than a blip on the radar—but his fast track progress will be a little halted.

Nick Franklin, SS Seattle A Ball Line—.289 BA, 17 HR, 43 RBI

In his first full season of pro ball, Franklin is showing the full repertoire. Not projected as a power stick, the switch-hitting shortstop is slugging .528 with 36 extra base hits.

He’s also flashing his speed with six triples and 18 stolen bases. Not too shabby for a player whom scouts describe as “lacking tools.”

He accepted just two free passes in 63 AB between the Rookie League and NOR in ’09, but his OBP is improving. He’s already drawn eight walks in 13 July games, matching his high for any month.

The Mariners have two other top prospects at SS (Gabriel Noriega and Carlos Triunfel), which means a move to 2B could be in the cards.

Henry Rodriguez, 2B Cincinnati A Ball Line—.288 BA, 9 HR, 55 RBI

Weighing in at 160 pounds, Rodriguez has compiled five HR and 69 RBI in three prior minor league seasons. Through 86 games in 2010, he’s already jacked nine bombs and driven in 55 runs.

He’s also ripped 28 doubles, obliterating his previous career high of 14. This upgrade in pop has really come from out of nowhere.

The switch-hitting Rodriguez is definitely more comfortable from the left side, hitting .305 with seven HR, 23 doubles and 42 RBI. He’s batting .233 from the right side, but has struck out only five times in 86 AB.

Rodriguez has swiped 17 bags in 23 attempts. Only 20 years of age, he could make for a very interesting fantasy package as he continues to develop.

PITCHERS:

Randall Delgado, RH SP Atlanta Advanced A Line—4-6, 2.85 ERA, 111 K

What do you know? Another young arm in the lower ranks of the Braves system. In his fourth minor league season, Delgado is a polished 20.

He’s surrendered 85 knocks in 110 1/3 innings with opposing batters hitting a meager .213 against him. Right-handed hitters are below the Mendoza line at .198.

His command has been sharp, issuing only 31 BB. Even in the face of massive strikeout numbers (second in the CAL), he continues to get ground balls at a proficient rate with a 1.41 GO/AO.

Delgado features a sinking fastball in the low 90’s, a “now you see it, now you don’t” change-up, and 12-6 curveball. Somewhat limited ceiling, but on the fast track.

Brad Hand, LH SP Florida Advanced A Line—5-5, 3.19 ERA, 97 K

Hand has gone through phases of absolute domination this season. He’s thrown two complete game shutouts and posted a 1.14 ERA in five June starts.

But since his other 11 games started, he’s been touched up a bit. He’s allowed 101 hits in 98 2/3 innings with lefties hitting a too comfortable .258 against him.

Command has been a bugaboo at lower levels, and that continues to be the case in the FSL where he’s walked 34 batters. His fastball is not overpowering (sits at 93) but he has a live arm and sneaky gas up in the zone. Hand’s secondary offerings need work.

Nick Barnese, RH SP Tampa Bay Advanced A Line — 7-4, 2.83 ERA, 87 K

Barnese has been one tough cookie to square up. In 74 2/3 innings in the SAL last season he allowed just 56 hits, and in 98 2/3 innings this season he’s allowed 91 base knocks.

Left handed hitters are batting .206 against him. He’s been nearly impossible to take out of the park, yielding a ludicrous seven HR in 275 2/3 minor league innings. His GO/AO ratios have been stellar (2.09, 1.32, 1.44, 1.27) but he’s still giving up his fair share of fly outs—just not with authority.

His control has been excellent, issuing just 20 walks (under two per nine innings). His out pitch is a slurve with good late break. From all accounts, Barnese is a bulldog on the mound.

Jarred Cosart, RH SP Philadelphia A Ball Line—7-3, 3.79 ERA, 77 K

He’s a 38th round pick in the 2008 amateur draft out of high school as a two-way player. Cosart has been downright filthy on the mound. In 71 1/3 innings he’s allowed only 60 hits and struck out 77.

He’s holding opposing hitters to a .224 BA. He’s been a ground ball machine with a 1.93 GO/AO ratio and a staggering 6.25 ratio against left handed hitters. He’s exhibited terrific command of the strike zone, walking just 16.

As you can see, it’s difficult to find a weakness in the stats— <!– @page { margin: 0.79in } P { margin-bottom: 0.08in } –>so how is his ERA 3.79? Quite simply, he hasn’t learned how to work his way out of trouble. The opposition is hitting .314 against him with RISP.

His curveball and change-up are well-seasoned offerings to go along with a low 90’s heater. Cosart is currently on the DL with an elbow strain.

Matt Hobgood, RH SP Baltimore A Ball Line—3-7, 4.68 ERA, 48 K

The number five overall selection in the 2009 draft, Hobgood is an absolute ox at 6’4” 245 pounds. He throws a four-seam fastball that boars in on right handed hitters and a two-seamer that runs away from left handed hitters.

His 2.00 GO/AO ratio is very encouraging. He’s given up 72 hits in 75 innings and only five long balls. With that said, his control has been shaky with 34 walks, and he doesn’t miss bats (48 K).

His curveball is touted as a devastating breaker, but hasn’t acted as one, yet. Before O’s fans hit the panic switch, he won’t turn 20 until August.

Notable Promotions to AA:

Eric Hosmer 1B-KC, Drew Cumberland SS-SD, Alexi Amarista 2B-LAA, J.D. Martinez OF-HOU, Michael Main SP-SF, Chris Dwyer SP-KC, Chris Archer SP-CHC.

…And the Whiff:

Everett Williams (SD) and Max Stassi (OAK) are on earth shattering strikeout paces in the Midwest League. Williams has K’d 94 times in 65 games (253 AB) and Stassi 98 times in 73 games (282 AB).

Article by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Adam’s excellent fantasy insight and analysis.

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Fantasy Baseball’s Post All-Star Break Positional Ranks: Catchers

What do Craig Biggio, Pablo Sandoval, and Neil Walker have in common? All three saw a significant amount of time behind the plate in the minors but found new positions in the big leagues.

The trend of moving young catchers to other positions because of their defensive deficiencies behind the plate or to increase longevity has left fantasy owners with a diluted pool of catchers from which to choose. 

The rankings that follow are designed to help you get as much value as possible at the shallowest position in the game. All percentage of ownership numbers are from ESPN Fantasy Baseball leagues. Stats through 7/18/2010.


Tier One

Joe Mauer (100 percent owned)- Mauer owners might have expected a decrease in power numbers this season (28 HR, .587 SLG in 2009 and just 4 HR, .433 SLG in 2010), but few could have expected his on-base percentage (.372) to fall to what it was in his first full season in the majors. 

The power outage can be explained by the fact that about one out of every five Mauer fly balls left the yard last year while only about one out of every 20 is leaving the yard this year.  As for the on-base percentage, Mauer is simply chasing more balls outside of the strike zone. 

 

All that said, only Miguel Olivo was better than Mauer in the first half, so Mauer must still be considered the top option at catcher. 

Brian McCann (100 percent owned)- McCann provides great value at the catcher position, not only because he produces, but because he produces consistently. His home run totals the last four seasons are 24, 18, 23, 21, and he is on pace to finish this season in that range.  Although McCann is currently hitting .270, he is a career .291 hitter, and it is entirely possible he finishes the season close to that mark.

Buster Posey (96.2 percent owned)- Since his call-up on May 29, all Posey has done in 145 at-bats is hit .352 with 7 HR, 23 R and 26 RBI.  If you scale those numbers out to a full 162-game season, he would be on pace for 28 HR, 93 R, and 105 RBI. Sure, you are likely to see some regression from the young hitter, but to this point, Posey has done nothing but prove that he is the real deal.

Carlos Santana (92 percent owned)- In 125 big league plate appearances, Santana has walked a very impressive 25 times.  Add the fact that he has only swung at 22.1 percent of pitches out of the strike zone, and it looks like the kid who might now be the best athlete in Cleveland has the ability to succeed against big league pitching.

 

Tier Two 

Miguel Montero (78.8 percent owned)- Chris Snyder is cutting into Montero’s playing time a bit, but Montero is hitting .308 since his return from the DL after hitting .294 with 16 homers last season. 

Kurt Suzuki (50.3 percent owned)- Suzuki is basically a poor man’s Brian McCann. He has just a little less power, will probably end the year 15 to 20 points behind McCann in average, and trails McCann in counting numbers (R, RBI) simply because he hits in a weaker lineup. 

 

 

 

Geovany Soto (59.8 percent owned)- Lately, Soto has been ceding less time to Koyie Hill than he was earlier in the year.  That is probably because he is hitting more like Geovany Soto circa 2008.  In the last 30 days, Soto is hitting .309 with 4 HR, 8 R, and 15 RBI. 

 

 

 

Miguel Olivo (90.4 percent owned)- So many things point to a significant Olivo regression in the second half.  He is currently hitting .325, but he has never hit better than .263 in his career.

He also has a BABIP of .396 (Batting Average on Balls In Play; generally, above .300 means a hitter has been lucky, and below .300 means a hitter has been unlucky). However, no other catcher has been better to this point, so it may be worth it to try and ride the hot bat. 


 

Tier Three

 

 

 

Matt Wieters (49.9 percent owned)- My Wieters man-love knows no bounds, but he was one of the bigger disappointments of the first half and is likely to miss a week’s worth of games in the second half.  If you still believe, go ahead and stick with him, but you might be wise to temper your expectations.

 

 

 

Victor Martinez (100 percent owned)- If he were healthy, Martinez would undoubtedly be a top-five catcher option the rest of the way.  However, he has only recently become able to squeeze a baseball without feeling soreness in his thumb.

There is just too much uncertainty about how much time V-Mart will miss in the second half for him to be considered the elite fantasy option that he usually is.

 

 

 

Mike Napoli (79 percent owned)- The sub .250 average is not ideal, but at the end of the day, you know Napoli is going to hit for power as he averages a home run every 17 at-bats for his career.

 

 

 

John Buck (42 percent owned)- Buck’s 2010 numbers look great: .272, 13 HR, 27 R, 41 RBI.  The problem is that in the last 30 days Buck has only contributed 1 HR, 3 R, and 6 RBI to those season totals. 

 

Tier Four

 

Bengie Molina (35.3 percent owned)– The move to Texas has to make Bengie more valuable.

 

 

 

Jorge Posada (92.4 percent owned)– Yeah, he is healthy now, but how long is that going to last?

 

 

 

Ryan Doumit (59.8 percent owned)– Doumit may lose some playing time because he has been abysmal defensively.  His caught stealing percentage is easily the worst in the league, and he leads the league in passed balls.  However, as long as he keeps hitting while he is back there, Doumit is a viable fantasy option.

 

 

 

A.J. Pierzynski (9.3 percent owned)– To date, Pierzynski’s BABIP is fairly low (.245), and he is striking out less than he has in previous years.  There seems to be some potential for a better second half.

 

 

 

Tier Five

 

 

 

Russell Martin (58.6 percent owned)– Martin has no business even being discussed as ownable in a 10-team league, but in deeper formats, he has value simply because he plays alm ost every day.  Among catchers, he ranks third in at-bats behind Jason Kendall and Mauer.

 

 

 

Jason Kendall (7.4 percent owned)– To reiterate, Jason Kendall leads the league in at-bats with 309. Add his .269 average and six steals, and it is clear that Kendall is a nice option in deeper league and AL-only formats.

 

 

 

Jonathan Lucroy (0.1 percent owned)– Lucroy is likely to receive the majority of the playing time in the second half for the Brewers, and he is hitting a respectable .280 with two homers and two steals so far this season.

 

 

 

Chris Ianetta (2.9 percent owned)– Ianetta could see increased playing time if Miguel Olivo does actually regress. His ISO (Isolated Power measures a hitter’s raw power based on his ability to get extra base hits) indicates that if he does see more ABs, he might be able to do some serious damage with them.

 

Just missed the cut: John Jaso (1.7 percent owned)

 

Agree or Disagree with the rankings? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix.

 

Article written by Brett Talley exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com

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MLB Closer Carousel’s Fantasy Baseball Impact: National League Report

Some fantasy baseball owners are in need of a few points in their roto league, trying to lock up one stat a week in their head to head or even looking to retool for next year.

Whatever your situation is, this will give you the low down on every National League teams’ situation.

Brewers  

Raise your hand if you predicted that John Axford would be leading the Brewers in saves this year…

That’s what I thought. Trevor Hoffman may be the all-time leader in saves, but the hot hand is Axford, and he’s rewarded anyone that took a shot with him early enough. 

At 50 percent owned in Y! leagues, there may be a chance that he’s available in your league. If so, pick him up. 

Axford has closed 10 games without a blown save and owns a 5-1 record to go along with a 32 Ks in 26 IP.  His ERA and WHIP statistics stand at a very respectable 3.12 and 1.27 respectively, so it doesn’t appear that he’s going to slow down anytime soon.

Phillies

Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.

Injuries have been the storyline in Philadelphia this year, but they’re starting to get better. But because of the health issues, there have been five pitchers to record a save for the Phillies this year. 

Brad Lidge leads the way with seven and Ryan Madson has four saves to his credit.  Combined, those two have only seen action in 32 games so far due to injury. 

But even with the limited action this year, the two closers in Philadelphia have combined for six blown saves. Although they’ve been ineffective at times, there will be plenty of opportunities for the rest of the season. 

If you want to take a shot at some saves and can sacrifice ERA, take a look at Lidge and Madson, who are 57 percent owned and 21 percent owned, respectively, in Y! Leagues.

Nationals

With the trade deadline looming, the Nationals find themselves 13 games out of first place. Their closer, Matt Capps, figures to be a target of many teams looking to add bullpen depth. 

If Capps is traded, he will end up being someone’s setup man and lose most of his Fantasy relevance. 

After a trade, expect the Nationals to continue grooming their closer of the future, Drew Storen. Last year’s No. 10 pick, Storen blew through the minor leagues quicker than his first round counterpart Steven Strasburg. Only owned in five percent of Y! leagues, Storen could stand to see a fair share of save opportunities before the year is out.

Diamondbacks

The bullpen in Arizona has been pretty bad this year, considering that their opening day closer has an ERA north of eight and the only pitcher with a WHIP below 1.29 is a kid they picked up recently in a trade. 

Chad Qualls (48 percent owned) was the closer for most of the season, but the new management team in Arizona will probably go in a different direction. Today it appears that Juan Gutierrez (two percent owned) is the latest to get a chance at the end of games. 

So far, so good, and Gutierrez has earned two saves as of late. But his high ERA (6.96) and 1.515 WHIP suggest he’ll struggle just like those that have come before him. 

Sam Demel (one percent owned) is the one bright spot with the 1.154 WHIP, but it doesn’t appear that the Diamondbacks will be offering up enough chances anyway, and we should probably stay away from any member of the D’backs bullpen.

Trade Bait… the next six guys are known to be good closers and should be your trade targets if you’re looking to trade for saves.

Rockies

Watch out now, the Rockies have another chance to get hot and roll through the NL West. 

For the end of their games, they’re very committed to Huston Street, as they should.  He’s already closed out six saves since returning from the disabled list in June. 

While Street was on the shelf, most saves went to Manny Corpas and a few went to Franklin Morales. But that’s all in the past now. 

With 135 career saves at 26 years of age, Street is a fantastic option in all formats with career stats of 1.023 WHIP, 2.89 ERA, and a strike out per inning.

Dodgers

Jonathan Broxton may be the best closer in the National League, but strangely, the Dodgers have only presented Broxton with just 21 save chances. 

Broxton has saved 19 of these chances and posted 55 Ks, a 2.11 ERA, and a 1.18 WHIP in 39.2 IP. The 26-year-old righty got off to a slow start this year, but it was due to a lack of opportunities, not a lack of production. 

The Dodgers are still in the NL West mix and should offer plenty of save chances through the end of the season, making Broxton a must own.  If you’re looking to trade for saves, consider his lack of chances so far this year as a chip for buying low. 

Reds

Francisco Cordero is tied for the league lead in saves with 25, even though he’s performing well off of his career statistics. 

The slightly elevated numbers (4.10 ERA compared to a career 3.24 and 1.549 WHIP compared to 1.368) could just be a bump in the road, and an excellent second half would bring him right back to his career line. 

With the Reds leading the NL Central, they have banked on Cordero at the end of their games. Going forward, there are zero signs of a change; the Reds will live and die by Cordero in their tight games. 

Padres

Everyone was very confident that Heath Bell would be one of the league leaders in saves, but most thought that by this time, it would be for a contender loading up their bullpen. 

Instead, he’s closing out games for the NL West leading Padres. 

The 32-year old Bell is having a spectacular year and is owned in every format, but if you’re trading for saves, this is the guy to turn to.

Marlins

When Matt Lindstrom went on the DL in June of the 2009 season, the Marlins turned to this 25-year-old.

The former Royalhas saved 46 games while blowing 12 in just over a year of service. He is showing improved WHIP and ERA statistics this year and is on pace to set a career-high in strikeouts. 

Even if there were someone else performing for the Marlins, there is no reason to think that they would look anywhere else at the end of games. Under team control through the 2012 season, expect the Marlins to focus on other parts of their team and allow Nunez to continue closing games out.

Astros

So much for the drama many anticipated taking place in the Astros bullpen this season. 

This spring, it was uncertain if Matt Lindstrom would hold onto the closer’s role all year, but he has turned it up and closed out 22 of his 26 save chances. 

For someone that throws in the triple digits, Lindstrom hasn’t provided the K rate you might expect with 31 Ks in 36 IP. Plus, his WHIP is high at 1.486. But he’s getting saves, and that’s what we’re looking for.

Looking at next year….

Braves

There are some special things going on in Atlanta. 

The division leaders at the All-Star Break will most likely have to part ways with their closer, manager, and maybe even their captain next year. Currently, though, Billy Wagner is having a career year at the age of 38, with five wins to zero losses, 21 saves, and 59 strikeouts in 39 innings. 

Setting up Wagner has been a mix of Takashi Saito and the 25-year old Jonny Venters.  Venters has some upside and could expect to close games out for the Braves in 2011. 

Cubs

It’s amazing to think that Carlos Marmol has not locked down the closer role for the Cubs, especially when you consider that he’s averaging a ridiculous 17 K/9. But that is the case, and it is because of outings like this past Saturday, where Marmol walked five, gave up one hit, and allowed four runners to score in a one-run game. 

Marmol has only blown four saves this year, but the fact that he has given up more walks (33) than hits (24) shows that there is reason for concern in Chicago. 

Lying in waiting behind Marmol is the closer of the future in Andrew Cashner. But he needs more time in the big leagues and is still a long way from being ready to close big league games. 

Consider Marmol to have his job on lockdown for the remainder of the year, but going into next year that may not be the case.

Giants

The Giants made Brian Wilson their full time closer in 2008 and haven’t had to look back since. 

Wilson is tied for the league lead in saves this year, and could approach 50 saves by the season’s end. But rumors have spread this past offseason about the Giants moving Wilson eventually, because of his contract. It’s still not clear who will inherit the job. 

The younger guys in the bullpen, Sergio Romo and Dan Runzler, have been impressive, but not enough to predict a successor.

Pirates

The Pirates may only have 30 wins to date, but they have offered up 20 saves. 

Free agent pick up Octavio Dotel has been able to lock up 19 of those 20 games. But the most interesting story from the Pirates’ bullpen this year has been the emergence of 27-year-old Evan Meek. 

A former Rule 5 draftee, Meek has put up a 1.07 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 48Ks in 50.2 IP, good enough to earn himself a spot in the All-Star game. If the Pirates were to trade Dotel, Meek should be next in line, but he’ll need to calm the butterflies down before becoming very relevant in our Fantasy world. 

Meek has blown five saves in six chances, but has still maintained the impressive statistics. 

It would appear that Meek has had a difficult time getting outs when inheriting runners. Luckily the closer role doesn’t require him to do that often. 

But wait, there is more….

Mets

The Mets have invested heavily in Francisco Rodriguez, and he has returned that investment with 21 saves for them this year. 

At 28, Rodriguez has posted a 2.68 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP through 47 IP this year. This high number has put K-Rod on pace for his most innings since becoming a full-time closer. 

Beyond K-Rod, no one holds a very significant role in the bullpen. Elmer Dessens and Bobby Parnell have been effective as of late and could lock up a bigger role if they continue to get outs.

Cardinals

Throw out an epic loss at Colorado on July 6th and Ryan Franklin has a 2.11 ERA and a WHIP under one through 34.1 IP. Outside of this one historic appearance, Franklin has been extremely dependable, with 16 saves in 17 chances. 

When Franklin has been unavailable, the Cards have turned to Jason Motte on three occasions, of which he’s closed out two (the blown save came the night after the Rockies 12-9 victory over the Cards). 

Franklin’s age, 37, could be a concern for owners carrying him into next year, but for 2010, he continues to be a spectacular option.

Written by James Weston for thefantasyfix.com

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Must or Bust: Justin Smoak’s Two HRs and Edinson Volquez Returns

A quick review of last week’s least owned top performers in fantasy baseball. Justin Smoak goes yard in back to back games. Paul Maholm wins the Dr. Jeckyll / Mr. Hyde award. Edinson Volquez dominates in his return. Who will continue to dominate and who will disappear like a ninja?

SWINGERS

Chase Headley 47% owned
6 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SB, .500
Chase started the season extremely strong, but fizzled around the end of May. The past month though has him been back on track (16 R/3 HR/11 RBI/.311). Padres are still on top…

Gordon Beckham 45% owned
2 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, .643
Analysts have Beckham on the top of their lists of sleepers for the second half. Everyone is still waiting for the former 1st round pick to turn the corner in his career. Remember it took his teammate Gavin Floyd a few years to really develop so hopefully Gordon is nearing his stride. He’s batting .338 in the past month.

Starlin Castro 16% owned
3 R, 1 RBI, 2 SB, .600
Well, Starlin stole home last Thursday so isn’t that reason enough to pick him up on your team? Ok, maybe not, but he has a six game hitting streak going into tonight and is batting just shy of .300 since the call up. I don’t think we will see anything mind blowing from Castro this year, but he may just prove to a few owners that he is keeper material, especially in a weak SS position.

Matt Diaz, 2% owned
3 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .417
Diaz saw a some extra playing time in the past week but Jason Heyward is back and no matter how good Matt play’s he won’t be forcing the Braves future all-star to the bench.

Kevin Kouzmanoff 18% owned
3 R, 1 HR, 7 RBI, .385
Kouz is right on par with similar numbers to years previous. If he gets a full 600 AB, you may be able to squeeze 20+ homers from him. At least he’s keeping the average above .270.

Justin Smoak 10% owned
3 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, .333
The Smoak has cleared and the Mariners are hoping they have found their future first baseman. Justin had back to back games with homers against the Angels this week.

Drew Stubbs 28% owned
2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, .500
Stubbs has put up very respectable numbers in his 2nd year, considering how ice cold he started the season. He’s already almost at 50 Runs and RBIs and I would be shocked if he doesn’t end up with 30-35 stolen bases by the end of year. The power is a great addition too, having his second multi-homer game of the season against Colorado.

HURLERS

Paul Maholm 17% owned
9 IP, 1 W, 1 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.33 WHIP
Maholm wins the Dr. Jeckyll/Mr. Hyde award this month. Against Texas he pitched one inning and gave up 5 runs. In the next game against Chicago he turned it around and pitched eight strong while only giving up one. Then against Philly he imploded in three innings and gave up seven runs. Back comes Dr. Jeckyll against the Brewers and Houston, giving up 6 hits in 16 innings with the later being a CG. I’m scared shirtless (yes shirtless – there may be kids in the room) to pick him up in fear of another bomb.

Edinson Volquez 51% owned
6 IP, 1 W, 9 K, 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP
The long awaited return of Volquez was a nothing less than a gem. Going six strong while only surrendering one earned run and blanking nine. As George Constanza once said “I’m back baby!”

Jeanmar Gomez 0% owned
7 IP, 1 W, 4 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Don’t get too excited with the fantastic line Gomez put up this week. Jeanmar was just optioned back to Triple-A today. Don’t really get that one, seeing as how Cleveland is horrible and they should keep any pitcher up who can actually get them a win.

Aaron Cook 2% owned
7 IP, 1 W, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Nice game against Cincinnati but there are other pitchers out there in the depths of the wire who have a better ERA (4.56), better WHIP (1.45) and more Ks (49).  

Jason Vargas 37% owned
7.2 IP, 1 W, 9 K, 1.17 ERA, 0.65 WHIP
Vargas has been a pleasant surprise all season long and continued to show his dominance against the Angels, striking out nine. His 2.97 ERA puts him seventh in the AL and his 1.15 WHIP is eighth. Owners are slowly realizing what a gem Vargas is for their teams.

Sean Marshall 22% owned
2.2 IP, 1 W, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIP
There are few top notch set-up men this year and Marshall is definitely one of them. Sean is averaging more than a K per inning and already has amounted six wins. ERA under two, WHIP at one and batters hitting under .200. Find a spot on your roster for this guy, he’ll help you in categories without you even realizing it.

Alex Sanabia 1% owned
5.1IP, 1 W, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
Sanabia got his first win this week against the Nationals. In the past two games, Sanabia has pitched 8.2 innings and given up zero runs, plus K’d seven. Certainly worth keeping this rookie on your watch list.

 

Written by Evan Marx. Check back weekly for Evan’s Must or Bust, bad humor and boyish charm.
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