Kuzul

The race for Most Valuable Player in the AL looks to be dominated by Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton. But what about in the NL?

As you may or may not know (depending on whether you’ve read any of my articles), I’m pretty fond of a stat called “wins above replacement,” or WAR. WAR is is a stat that takes a players offensive and defensive numbers and determines how many wins a player has been solely responsible for over a replacement player. Conceivably, we can use this stat to get an idea of who should at least be in the running for NL MVP.

So, after a quick search at Fangraphs, we see the National League’s leaders in WAR. The Top 20 is littered with All-Stars, from Martin Prado to Carlos Gonzalez, Power Padre Adrian Gonzalez to Bespectacled Backstop Brian McCann, and so on.

The Top Five is what’s particularly interesting though.

Fifth is Matt Holliday, who has so far amassed 4.7 WAR (WAR is a counting stat, not a rate stat, so a higher number is better). Second through fourth place is a virtual tie between Everyone’s Favorite All-Star Snub Joey Votto, center fielder for the Giants and surprise player of the year Andres Torres, and dual-reigning MVP Albert Pujols, in that order. However, they are separated by only .3 Wins (5.5, 5.4, and 5.2, respectively), so it’s likely that we’ll see some change there. However, this leaves one rather large question-who is first?

The answer is none other than slick-fielding Nationals third basemen Ryan Zimmerman, with 6.0 full Wins to his name. 

Some of you may be rather incredulous. You may be thinking “How can someone be the Most Valuable Player in the league if he wasn’t even an All-Star?” Well, first, I would say remember how we pick All-Stars; that should answer that question (for those who may wonder, Zimmerman’s spot on the roster went to Omar Infante, according to MLB.com, in case you were worried that it wasn’t filled wisely). 

In all seriousness, though, why is Zimmerman calculated as the most valuable player in the league?

Well, if you aren’t quite sure, you may first want to check how well Ryan’s done this season. At 25, the third baseman is having his second career year in a row; 24 home runs, 24 doubles, a .302 average, a .388 on-base percentage, and a .549 slugging percentage. His .937 On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) is third right now, behind only Votto and Pujols. OPS+ is a stat that compares a batter’s OPS to league average to determine how much better he’s been, even accounting for home field differences.

By this measure, Ryan Zimmerman’s posted an 150 OPS+ (meaning he’s been 50% above league average), good for third in the NL, tied with Adrian Gonzalez and behind only Joey Votto (169) and Albert Pujols (166). If you want more traditional measures, Ryan’s eighth in home runs and eleventh in average. He’s even managed to get 68 RBIs (tied for eighteenth), despite playing for a Nationals team that ranks fourteenth in runs and thirteenth in RBIs in the NL.

So, how does he rank above Pujols and Votto, and even Gonzalez in WAR? Well, there are two major reasons. One; WAR accounts for position. The more good hitters there are at one position, the easier it is to replace them. You may notice that Pujols, Votto, and Gonzalez are all first basemen, which just demonstrates the depth of quality first basemen. Basically, they provide a lot of offense, but they do so while playing a position that’s expected to provide a lot of offense. 

Second, however, is his defense. Zimmerman is possibly the best player manning the hot corner this season, according to Ultimate Zone Rating. or UZR. UZR is a fairly complicated defensive stat that is determined by breaking down every play that occurs in a year, and grading a player based on how far the away the ball was, how hard it was hit, and so on (if you want more information, I would recommend this Boston Globe video as a good intro). Zimmerman has the best Ultimate Zone Rating for the year at third, with 12.2 runs saved (his nearest competition, Chase Headley, is at 10.9, followed by Kevin Kouzmanoff with 10.6 and Placido Polanco at 10.2).

So, basically, Zimmerman has the most WAR for the year because his been both a strong defensive player at a difficult position and a major offensive threat at a position that is comparatively weak this season.

Is Zimmerman the National League MVP for the year? WAR is by no means the end-all-be-all, but he definitely deserves some of the MVP talk.

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The pitchers of the AL and NL West may not be the best to use as a finale in my Future Hall of Fame series. Unlike all of the groups I’ve done, there have been no sure-fire candidates, like a Chipper Jones or a Mariano Rivera. This is largely due to the youth of the group in question. I struggled to find any pitchers in their 30s who had any sort of a chance at all (the last cut resulting in the loss of Barry Zito-yes, I really was that desperate for players). But then, maybe it’s fitting that I finish with the youngest, most potential filled group.

And, because I know you’re all dying to know, the only chance Barry Zito has of coming close to the Hall is if he becomes Jamie Moyer, Mark II: the soft-throwing lefty with good command and movement who somehow hangs around racking up wins into his mid-40s. 

And so, onto the real analysis.

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It’s been awhile since the last article in this series. I’ve been busy lately, but I’m dead set on finishing it up, and I only have this and one more to go.

One thing that seemed to spark some confusion was the subject of the last article. I had a few people asking why I didn’t include certain players.

Well, throughout each of my articles, I’ve been trying to cover any player who might have a chance at the Hall of Fame by position; with pitchers, though, there were too many to compress into one article.

I needed to split it up, and, when I divided it into three articles, based on division, it worked out fairly well. The first article was comprised of pitchers in the AL and NL East; this one is the AL and NL Central; the last will be the AL and NL West. 

And so, the Hall candidates from the Central Divisions.

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Let me just preface this by saying that pitchers, as a whole, are much more difficult to predict than hitters, at least as far as the rest of their career goes. Pitchers are much more susceptible to random, career altering injuries, discovering new pitches, and other unusual events; therefore, there is a much greater element of randomness.

Also, the Hall of Fame seems much more unclear on what constitutes a Hall of Fame pitcher, outside of 300 wins. The last starter elected by the Baseball Writers Association (essentially, what you think of when you think of the election process) was Nolan Ryan, back in 1999.

Before him, the last choices were Don Sutton, Phil Niekro, Steve Carlton, and Tom Seaver. You may notice two things about that group. First, every one of them has 300 wins. In fact, the Baseball Writers haven’t elected a non-300 game winner since Ferguson Jenkins (only 284 wins) back in 1991; whether this says something about the Hall’s electors or the quality of pitching in that time, I can’t say.

Second, every one of the aforementioned pitchers started their career in the 1960s. Yes, apparently, it has been over four decades since any Hall of Fame starter began his career.

This doesn’t even account for the erratic process they use to elect relievers; there is no obvious milestone, or, really, any sort of standard (if you’re looking for a good example of such oddities, look up one of Joe Posnanski’s articles comparing Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter and Dan Quisenberry).

Nevertheless, I want to cover every position for the the future of the Hall of Fame; and so, I begin with my first round of pitchers.

(Note: I used Baseball-Reference for WAR throughout the article. Fangraphs calculates pitching WAR a different way, and uses a more standard scale, but they only have numbers from 1980 on. Feel free to check it out if you’re interested, though.)

(Another note: There are a lot of pitchers. Surprising, I know. So, I broke them up by division; this article will be on the AL and NL East pitchers, with ones for the Central and West to follow.)

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It looks like long-time Astros star Lance Berkman is headed to the Yankees, according to ESPN. 

The Texas native, who even played at Rice University in Houston, is finally leaving the sinking franchise. For Berkman, it essentially accelerates the inevitable. This is his last year on contract, and with the trade for Brett Wallace yesterday, it seemed like it would only be a matter of time before the switch-hitter would be on his way out of town.

For the Astros, the deal looks to be a good step in rebuilding.

It allows them to play recent acquisition Wallace, a 24-year-old first baseman who has had his offensive prowess praised. It will likely be his first shot at the majors, on his fourth team in the last two years.

The Astros also will receive high-level prospects or monetary relief, though knowing the Yankees, I would bet they get monetary relief. They will likely also get some sort of prospect, and with Houston in the middle of rebuilding, any sort of youth will help revitalize a stagnant team and farm system. 

For the Yankees, I can’t claim to see what they would need Berkman for. He could play first base, or possibly, corner outfield. However, with all of those spots filled in New York, he will more likely be a DH. He could also be used to give some regulars a day off (and push Marcus Thames further down the bench).

If he does well this season, the Yankees could conceivably keep him next year, as he has a $15 million team option.

In any case, Berkman will certainly add to their offense. After a slow start (partially due to missing spring training and the season opener with an injury), he has rebounded with 13 home runs and a .245/.372/.436 line, with a 117 OPS+ (meaning his offense has been 17% above league average) and 1.9 Wins Above Replacement (essentially, how much a player is worth above an average player).

Should they decide to keep him next year, his numbers may see improvement with the return of his health.

As a Houston resident (although rather indifferent towards the Astros), it is disappointing to see Berkman go. He has always been respectable. However, this trade should likely improve both sides.

The trade will go through unless Berkman changes his mind within the next 24 hours.

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History is littered with great center fielders, almost none of which have made the Hall of Fame.

Only seven center fielders have made it to Cooperstown via the traditional method (election by the Baseball Writers’ Association). Two of those elected are Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker, who were elected in the first and second votes ever taken, respectively.

So, from the Hall’s third election on, only five center fielders have been voted in in the standard way. After third base, center field may be the most underrepresented position in the Hall of Fame.

Currently, the position of center field is in something of a state of flux. There seems to be a slight “new guard/old guard” movement going on.

As I compiled a list of players to cover, I noticed a definite split in age groups: players in their mid to late 30s with a good shot at enshrinement in Cooperstown, and players in their early 20s with their best years likely ahead.

In between that, there are some good players, but no one in the group remotely resembles anything near a Hall of Fame candidate (if you would like to argue that, say, Marlon Byrd or Aaron Rowand is a Hall of Fame candidate, feel free, but don’t expect me to take you seriously).

Admittedly, several recently retired center fielders have cases for election. Recent retiree Ken Griffey Jr. looks like a first-ballot lock. Kenny Lofton and Bernie Williams have both retired recently and may be better than you realize (especially in Lofton’s case).

However, I decided to only cover current players, and so I must leave these players out.

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With Cliff Lee’s struggles last night against the Orioles, some have declared that Lee cannot continue his All-Star performance for the Rangers, citing all sorts of stats to back up their panic. I say it’s still too early to worry.

I would also say it’s too early to say Lee will be rocked regularly pitching for the Rangers. Yes, his ERA is highest in Arlington. However, every time he has pitched there, he has faced an offensively-strong Rangers team (for example, the Rangers have the third most runs scored in the Majors, behind only the Yankees and Red Sox). Instead of pitching all of his games in Dallas against good hitting teams, he will now likely pitch many of them facing the Mariners and A’s, the worst and fourth-worst scoring lineups in the AL. That should bring his ERA down.

He didn’t walk anyone, which is always good; it shows he still has control. He also pitched a complete game in 95 pitches, showing he can work efficiently. The two biggest things I noticed were that his strikeouts were down, and his HR/FB (home runs per fly ball) was up. He only struck out two batters the whole game, while prior to that he was striking out nearly eight per nine innings. Furthermore, he allowed three home runs on 13 fly balls, compared to a 5.8 home run-to-fly ball ratio for the season. We can expect his HR/FB to increase while pitching half his remaining games in Arlington, but the rise should not remain quite that dramatic. Also, as he returns to striking out more batters, his runs allowed should lower as fewer balls make it into play.

For all these stats, there is one thing I haven’t mentioned. Lee is still human, a human who 24 hours before he pitched found out that he would be pitching for a new team. Since he was originally supposed to start the day he was traded, I would not be surprised to find the flight from Seattle to Dallas interrupted his routine for days he pitches. According to WikiAnswers, Seattle to Dallas is a four hour and 15 minute flight, not counting anytime spent at the airport. After that, Lee still has to find time to do regular things like sleep, warm up, etc. It would not be too far a leap to suggest he just needs to return to a more regular routine.

In short, I think it is very premature to declare that Lee’s performance will suffer as much as it did last night. His acquisition should help the Rangers down the stretch, regardless of his performance last night.

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Really, MLB?
You’re going to make me take time out of my Future Hall of Fame series to fix your All-Star Rosters?
You guys obviously need help this year. There’s bad, and then there’s not even trying. I mean, really.
No Joey Votto? No Jered Weaver? OMAR FREAKING INFANTE?
Thankfully, I’m giving you a mulligan this year. In fact, I’ll even fix your rosters for you, starting right now.

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For some time, I’ve wanted to analyze the Hall of Fame; specifically, who today is going in? I’ve tried it once before, but the result never felt satisfying.

But then, it hit me.

Instead of writing three sentences each about fifty-odd guys and splitting it over two articles, write a more focused bit on smaller groups at a time.

I am starting with my favorite group, the third basemen.

Third is an extra interesting group, because the baseball writers committee, as a whole, seem to have absolutely no idea how to treat the position.

Shortstops and second basemen get special considerations for their offense, as the positions are defensively difficult. However, they completely ignore defense at third. Consequently, the position is under-represented.

Let me phrase this a different way: name every third baseman in the Hall of Fame. Not Veteran Committee/Negro Leagues/etc., JUST those elected through the standard process. Keep track of how many you name.

Did you get past five? If you did, you have named every third baseman in the Hall. The hot corner has a mere SIX representatives in Cooperstown: Pie Traynor, Eddie Mathews, Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt, George Brett, and Wade Boggs.

Think about it this way: of the six Hall of Fame third basemen, one was elected before the Korean War, and half were inducted in Bryce Harper’s lifetime.

Despite this bizarre condition, I have confidence that the current group manning the position can reverse this trend.

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Armando Galarraga has been robbed of the 21st perfect game in baseball history.

This isn’t hyperbole or melodrama. I honest to God don’t know any other way to phrase it. If you haven’t seen the play, you can view it here .

Here’s the scene: Cleveland at Detroit, top of the 9th, two out. Detroit has a comfy 3-0 lead.

But this is no ordinary 3-0 game.

Armando Galarraga has retired 26 straight Indians. All that stands between him and the third perfect game of the year is Jason Donald. And, with a one and one count, the shortstop grounds to Miguel Cabrera. A simple flip to a covering Galarraga beats the runner by at least a step, if not more.

First Base Umpire Jim Joyce cares not about this. Donald is ruled safe on an infield single. The next batter grounds out, this time ruled an out. But it doesn’t matter; that lone blemish stands.

This event is really, truly, completely inexcusable.

If you skipped the video link, go watch it. This isn’t something that can be misinterpreted. Galarraga’s foot is clearly on the base.

The announcers are baffled, as the replay clearly shows this from multiple angles.  

I feel I need to write my feelings on the subject. This call is a Don Denkinger—level error in officiating (and this, coming from a Cardinals fan—I feel so strongly about this that I am skipping the game on ESPN to write this, at the moment). I have always been in favor of instant replay, and hope this event leads to wide—scale implementation.

As far as I can see, there is no reason to NOT use instant replay. Those against it have said it would slow down the game. But stop and think for a minute; how long did it take the announcers to verify Joyce’s call? From two angles, even? Compare that to the on-field actions: in the time it took the announcers to run multiple camera angles, Jim Leyland had just gone out to argue. That’s it. No actual arguing, he just made it to the umpire TO argue. The actual arguing itself would take longer. 

Besides, most of the plays in baseball are rather straightforward: fair or foul? Clear the fence on a fly or a bounce? Did the runner reach the bag first, or the pitcher? A centralized replay booth (similar to the one used in the NHL) could run the replays as smoothly as a TV booth, meaning minimal slow-down. It would even lead to more umpire jobs, as the booth will need people working it.

The only other argument against replay that I’ve seen is the “removal of the human element”. I must say, I am utterly baffled by this reasoning.

What human element? The players are both playing each other, and they are both humans pushing themselves to their limits. The umpire could still be on the field, making calls, with the “Replay Room” serving as a last—defense fail—safe.

And even then, why would you want a officiating system that is filled with human error? Isn’t this the very issue that led to things like bribery of judges, not only in baseball, but even as recently as the 2002 Salt Lake Olympics? I can’t say I know anyone who is a fan of a sport like figure skating or diving or what—have—you BECAUSE of the inconsistencies and opinions of those deciding the winner.

In any case, other sports (like football or hockey) don’t seem to mind losing this “human element” in exchange for more accurate calls. Why? Because they realize that the officiating body is not supposed to be the deciding factor in a competition between two teams giving their all. THAT is the “human element” that is generally thought of as “sports.”

In any case, the umpires are human, too. They do have emotions. From ESPN :

“I just cost that kid a perfect game,” Joyce said. “I thought he beat the throw. I was convinced he beat the throw, until I saw the replay.”

Joyce even realized his mistake…with the help of replays.

All I’m saying is that MLB needs to provide their umps with the ability to check themselves, and it’s a shame it might take something this big to bring MLB to its senses.

In short, MLB needs instant replay, and congratulations to Armando Galarraga on the 21st perfect game in MLB history.

Hopefully, he will become the answer to the trivia questions, “Who is the first pitcher to get 28 outs in a perfect game?” as well as “Who is the first pitcher to retroactively pitch a perfect game?”

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