Kuzul

As the Blue Jays continue to try and play the role of spoiler against the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees one more important date looms on the calender. That is of course next Wednesday when the calender turns to September. At that point the Blue Jays can increase their active roster to as many as forty players. No team ever adds the full fifteen and teams often only call-up a few extra players.

The Blue Jays can use the roster expansion as a chance to take a look at some of their younger players. According to the team’s website they currently have one open spot on their forty man roster and a few other players who would most likely pass through waivers to potentially open up additional spots.

Whether or not, manager, Cito Gaston will actually make use of the added players is another subject all together. If players are going to ride the bench all month there’s little point in promoting them or getting excited about them from a fan’s perspective. The results of the short stints shouldn’t be over analyzed, but it is nice to have something to look forward to in the season’s last month for a team that isn’t playoff bound.

The team does have several veteran players who’ve struggled this year and they might be doing the team more good by sitting a few extra times a week than continuing to play everyday. Aaron Hill has continued his season long struggle into August and Edwin Encarnacion hasn’t done much to demand loads of playing time either. 

With the struggles of the team’s regular second and third basemen in mind, the Jays may want to use their open roster spot on, twenty-four year old, Brad Emaus. After beginning the season in Double-A, Emaus has continued to thrive at Triple-A in the hitting happy Pacific Coast League. Emaus is hitting .299 with a .205 isolated power, similar numbers to what Brett Wallace produced with Las Vegas. 

But unlike Wallace, Emaus has been able to walk more than he strikes out. Between New Hampshire and Las Vegas he has 74 walks to just 64 strikeouts. And while not a prolific base stealer he’s swiped 11 bags while being caught just twice. Emaus has also shown defensive versatility splitting time between both second and third.

The plate discipline and base running should carry over to the majors relatively well as they are least influenced by his environment. The .205 ISO certainly is helped by the PCL, Emaus has never slugged higher than .162 at any other level. At twenty-four he still has time to add some power but the plate discipline is there and always has been. With no clear third baseman of the future in their system the Jays should take a look at Emaus as soon as possible.

The Blue Jays have an over crowded outfield situation with Vernon Wells and Adam Lind locked up long term, a couple of veterans earning playing time in Jose Bautista and Fred Lewis and a young man in need of at-bats in Travis Snider. All five figure to be back with the team next season as well, none more certain to return than Wells who is owed a cool twenty-six million dollars next season. It’s possible Bautista could be a long term answer at third, and Lind the solution at first once Lyle Overbay departs after the season.

For the time being at-bats in the outfield will be hard to come by for a September call-up. The Jays do have one interesting outfielder they may want to take a look at from Las Vegas, Chris Lubanski. The former number five pick in the 2003 draft by the Kansas City Royals is having his best season in the minors to this point in his career.

A quick glance at his career numbers reveals that a career year for Lubanski isn’t necessarily cause for celebration. The twenty-five year old is hitting .301 and showing good power with 15 homers and 23 doubles in 316 at-bats. Lubanski played in just 43 games in 2009, his last in the Royals’ system. His defensive numbers have been all over the place and he hasn’t played any center field for a few seasons now. Odds are he’ll never amount to more than a fourth outfielder at best, but if for nothing more than added depth he could get a call next month.

Other than that J.P. Arencibia is certain to return to join the club next week. Ideally, we’ll get to see him in the line-up at least three times a week as the season plays itself out. Don’t expect any surprise additions from the Double-A Fisher Cats next week. That team is playoff bound and the Jays will hold off on adding any one from the squad until their playoff run ends, if at all.

If the Jays aren’t inclined to play those whom they bring up then Mike McCoy and Jarrett Hoffpauir figure to rejoin the squad. But September usually sees a decent amount of prospects move up and neither McCoy or Hoffpauir figure to be key parts of Jays teams in the future.

A pitcher or two in the bullpen will be added at some point, but at this point almost every pitcher from Vegas has been up at one point or another this year. Rommie Lewis and Brad Mills could return and Robert Ray could join the squad for the first time this year as well. It’d be great to see some of these guys next month, and seeing them do more than ride the pine would be even better.

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On Wednesday afternoon against the New York Yankees, starting catcher John Buck injured his thumb and was placed on the disabled list after the game. There’s no definite timetable for his return, but he won’t be back until Aug. 19 at the earliest. Injuries are never anything to get excited about, but sometimes the player movement that stems from one can cause some excitement.

That looks to be the case here, as the Blue Jays promoted one of their top prospects, catcher J.P. Arencibia, to take Buck’s roster spot. Arencibia figured to make his debut at some point this season, at the least with a September call-up. That has been moved up to now, and it’s possible J.P. will stay with the club for the remainder of the season.

The Jays could opt to keep him on the roster even if Buck returns before rosters expand on the first of September. Until then, Arencibia should get the bulk of the playing time behind the plate for the Jays. Back down in Triple-A Las Vegas, Brian Jeroloman will be taking over the starting duties behind the plate. Jeroloman was enjoying a productive season in Double-A and will get his second shot at the higher level.

According to StatCorner’s site, Arencibia has been Las Vegas’ best offensive performer this season. He’s been a team-best 21.5 batting runs above average in 420 plate appearances. That represents a complete turnaround from his 2009 season, also at Triple-A, when he was 14.7 batting runs below average in 500 trips to the plate.

The improvement offensively is easily noticeable in several different areas, the most reassuring being his improved walk rate. While he might never be able to draw any more than a league-average number of walks, he should at least be able to avoid being labeled as a free swinger. His 7.9 percent walk rate is the best of his career and has come a long way since walking just 2.5 percent of the time in 2008 with Double-A New Hampshire.

J.P. has also seen more pitches this season than last, improving to 3.73 pitches per plate appearance. He’s been able to both walk more and see more pitches while at the same time striking out less. After swinging at 54.5 percent of the pitches he saw in ’09, Arencibia has cut back to 50.1 percent this season.

Hitting the long ball has never been a problem for Arencibia since being drafted in the first round of the 2007 draft. He went deep 27 times in 2008 between High-A and Double-A and hit another 21 homers last year. This season he’s gone yard 31 times in just 420 plate appearances.

His overall power has also been impressive. His ISO was over .200 in both ’08 and ’09 before this season’s outstanding .336. Arencibia has collected over 30 doubles each of the past three seasons. Like many catchers, the doubles come more from the solid contact than any ability to move quickly on the bases.

His batted ball profile, in terms of balls in play going for either a line drive, fly ball, or grounder, is largely unchanged from last season despite his BABIP jumping from .267 to .304. The .304 in 2010 is in line with his BABIP from ’08 and ’09, both of which were over .300. The rise in BABIP and the home run barrage have pushed his average to .303, a huge improvement from ’09.

Defense matters more for catchers than any other position, and it will be crucial that Arencibia can hold his own behind the plate. In his preseason prospect rankings on FanGraphs, Marc Hulet noted that scouts felt his defense had made strides during the 2009 season. He speculated that J.P.’s defensive abilities could be average to slightly above average.

Total Zone for catchers, which judges a catcher only on his ability to control the running game, rates Arencibia as slightly above average in throwing out and picking off runners. Advanced fielding stats have their uses, but not for evaluating catcher defense. All the intangibles of working with a pitching staff, calling a game, and so on are hard, if not impossible, to quantify.

We know what to expect, or at least hope for, when Arencibia steps to the plate, but time will need to pass to see how the other aspects of his game measure up. However many games J.P. gets into for the Jays this season will mean more to him than to anyone trying to analyze the results. At best he’d get 160 or so trips to the plate, far too small a sample size to draw conclusions from.

It will be said this is an audition for a starting role in 2011, but the Jays front office is not foolish enough to base that decision on 30 to 40 games when they have years of information from their player development personnel and coaches. That he has been called up is a sign they believe he is ready and that they are ready to commit a season’s worth of playing time to see what he can do.

The time up with Toronto will be invaluable to Arencibia. It will give him a chance to face the best pitchers and fastest baserunners for the first time, and the lessons he learns will pay dividends in 2011. Playing through the month of September for the first time will be a valuable experience. Catching 120 games a year is taxing on the body and something Jays fans hope Arencibia will have to get used to in the years ahead.

Enjoy watching one of the Jays’ prized prospects begin his big league career, but don’t get overly concerned with the results, good, bad, or ugly.

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The Toronto Blue Jays were widely expected to make a couple moves at the trade deadline this season. Several Jays vets were thought to be in play. But their first move in the last 72 hours before the deadline involved a top prospect, Brett Wallace, instead. An interesting turn of events to say the least – many expected Wallace to come up and play for the Jays at some point this season.

Wallace ironically leaves the Blue Jays organization in much the same way he arrived this past winter. He was originally dealt to Toronto from Oakland as part of a three-team deal that saw Roy Halladay head to Philadelphia. Now he’s been sent to Houston as part of a three-team deal that has landed Roy Oswalt in Philly.

Irony and surprise, one would assume, were not motivating factors in this deal. The prospect the Jays got from Houston, via Philly, is a raw but extremely talented nineteen-year old. Anthony Gose was a second-round selection in the 2008 draft. He both hits and throws left handed. 

Blue Jays GM, Alex Anthopoulos, said today on FAN590 that he believes Gose has the ability in the field to remain a center fielder. He has struggled in his minor league career to this point, but at 19 and several years away from the majors, his numbers aren’t overly important just yet. However, his 76 steals in 96 attempts last year is worth mentioning.

True center field prospects, much like shortstops and catchers, are not easy to come by. Not that first base prospects like Wallace are readily available, but finding someone to play first for the Jays in the future is much easier than finding someone to slot into center. What makes this deal tough to cope with for Jays fans is the drastic difference in Wallace’s and Gose’s timeline to arrive in the show.

Anthopoulos has now pulled off three moves this season with the intent of building depth in the up the middle positions. The signing of Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria and the trade for 27-year old shortstop Yunel Escobar were the first two. The one up the middle position he hasn’t touched, catcher, is perhaps the best stocked offensive position in the entire organization.

Rumors have sprung up quickly since this deal went down that Lance Berkman of the Astros will be on the move, and Wallace will get his shot at some serious Major League playing time. The Jays might have shipped out a solid first base prospect, but they have a glut of corner outfield/DH-type hitters in Adam Lind, Fred Lewis, Travis Snider, Jose Bautista, and even current center fielder, Vernon Wells.

Wells and his mammoth contract will be around for several more years and both Lewis and Bautista could be kept around at low cost for a few years as well. That would seem to leave Lind and Snider looking for a spot to play and first base might just end up being a home for one of them.

Whether this deal turns out to work to the Jays benefit won’t be known for years to come. No matter how well or poorly Wallace plays in Houston, Gose won’t be able to deliver on his own promise for sometime. Even more than that, what ends up happening with the Jays first base situation over the next three or four seasons will also be a factor in determining whether Anthopoulos pulled a smart move.

The trade will come under a good deal of scrutiny in the coming days. If Wallace gets off to a hot start in Houston, the scrutiny won’t get any quieter in Toronto either. Anthopoulos deserves credit for not shying away from a bold move. They don’t always work out but to be successful you have to have a plan and the fortitude to execute it and stick with it. It would seem Anthopoulos is doing just that.

With all that in the mind, the one thing that cannot be determined is if the Blue Jays “won” this trade or not. On the surface both teams are “winners” simply because the trade happened and it takes two to tango. Both Houston and Toronto will walk away from this deal with a sense of accomplishment. It’s a complicated matter that won’t be settled for sometime in finding out what exactly was accomplished.

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Despite their 52-49 record, the Blue Jays are a full 10 games behind Tampa Bay in the wild card race. With little chance of a postseason berth, Jays’ fans seemingly don’t have much to be excited about. The biggest holding point of interest right now is the looming trade deadline on Saturday. Any number of Jays vets could get moved between now and then.

Even after Saturday, though, there’s still plenty of reasons to stay involved with the team as it plays out the schedule in August and September. Most of it centers around the team’s young, cost-controlled talent or players in their primes locked into long-term deals. Last year’s post-deadline dumping of Alex Rios and his contract onto the Chicago White Sox should also serve as a reminder that moves can still happen after the deadline.

What follows below are five of the most important and interesting issues that will bare themselves out on the field over the course of the team’s remaining 61 games.

Travis Snider’s return to the show

It’s been a long time since Snider’s last appearance in a Blue Jays uniform. He’s been out since May 14, missing all that time with a wrist injury. In a bit of a surprise move, he wasn’t immediately returned to the team when his DL stint ended and instead he’s playing with the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats.

In 19 games there, he’s hit .299 with an impressive .220 isolated power, thanks to four homers and five doubles. Snider, however, has managed to draw just one walk against 20 strikeouts in 80 trips to the plate. Whether or not that’s cause for concern remains to be seen.

At this point, now that his swing looks to be unaffected by his wrist, he should be working on his hitting at the big league level. In parts of three seasons, stretching back to 2008, he still doesn’t have a full season of big league at-bats under his belt. If the original plan was for Travis to spend all of 2010 in Toronto to continue his development the Jays should get back to that plan immediately.

The Jose Bautista HR champion race

The surprise that keeps on surprising, Bautista leads all of baseball in home runs. With the season now just about two-thirds of the way completed, his bid for a home run title has to be taken seriously. Well beyond the point of trying to figure out how this has happened, it’s just time to sit back and see if he can pull it off.

Whether or not he does it has little to do with the Jays’ future, as he might have to finish the quest on another team. Even then, it still bares watching as a unique occurrence that makes baseball as special a sport as it is. He’s a full six homers ahead of Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera for the AL lead and five ahead of the Reds’ Joey Votto for the overall lead.

He’s gone deep 10 times already in July, including four bombs in the last three games, leaving him at 30 for the season. That leaves him with an excellent shot at 40 and at this point he has to be the front runner for the home run crown. Simply unbelievable.

Signs of life from Adam Lind and Aaron Hill

The duo around which a good deal of the Blue Jays future is centered has done little to inspire hope and confidence for seasons beyond 2010. Both have spent most of the season struggling to produce at the plate. A strong final two months from both Hill and Lind would be a welcome sign to all involved with the Blue Jays.

Hill had been unable to hit over .200 in any of the season’s first three months, but might finally be able to pull it off in July. He’s hitting .260, thanks to a .254 BABIP, both by far his best monthly numbers if they hold up. He’s maintained modest power throughout the season, including this month’s .164 ISO. Unfortunately, just when he’s started to hit a bit his walk rate has plummeted to 2.6 percent of his plate appearances.

His percentage of balls in play that have gone for line drives stands at just 10 percent this season, a far cry from his career mark of 19 percent. July has shown some hope here too, hitting a liner 15.2 percent of the time. Still, a .260 batting average with no walks and so-so power isn’t really much to be excited about.

Lind hasn’t been much better either, hitting .219/.275/.378 to this point. Like Hill, he’s still bopping a decent enough number of homers, they both have 14, but more production is still expected. Lind’s production is a bit more excusable due to his healthy 18.8 line drive percentage. He’s seen a drop in BABIP from ’08’s .317 and last year’s .323 down to .261.

July has seen a lot to like from Lind, except his walk rate, which on this team isn’t much of a surprise. He’s hitting .275 with a strong .327 BABIP and jacked five homers. His ISO has also cracked the .200 mark at .238 after a punchless .078 in June. 2010 doesn’t have to be a year to forget for these two, but it looks like it will be for at least one of them.

The hopeful, inevitable, imminent arrival of Brett Wallace and JP Arencibia

At what seems like a lifetime at this point, the wait for one of the two to put on a Blue Jays uniform continues. With just days to the deadline, the two months of speculation on when and if Lyle Overbay and John Buck would be moved to make room for one of the youngsters will finally come to an end. Whether Jays fans will get what they want is another matter all together.

But the time will come for both at the very latest with both being called up when rosters expand in September. Whenever the two young men arrive, their at-bats and chances in the field will become can’t miss action. The experience will also be valuable to both for 2011, when they’re expected to assume starting roles for the club. 

This much is clear, their performances have been excellent at Triple-A this season and they’re as ready as they’ll ever be right now.

Health and Prosperity for the Young Starting Rotation

Far and away, the most important piece of the puzzle for any team building a contender is its starting rotation. The Blue Jays have put together one of the youngest and most talented rotations anywhere in the American League. Both their health, performance, and careful monitoring of their workload are of the utmost importance if this team hopes to take on the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays in the near future.

Brandon Morrow has continued to get better as the season has worn on. His 9.96 K/9 IN coupled with a 3.41 FIP and improving walk rate have solidified his place in the rotation. Already this season he’s made 20 starts after making just 15 the last two years combined. He’s also already worked 113 innings, long since passing last season’s 69 innings of work. How strong he finishes will be important. Even more important will be making sure he isn’t overworked to guard against issues in the future.

Brett Cecil has had a rough month of July, posting a 4.29 FIP and 4.85 xFIP. His walk rate and strikeout rate are also dangerously close to equal for the month as well. He’ll have to make adjustments and try and get back to pitching like he did in May and June. There’s not too much concern about his workload after working 142 innings last season (between minors and majors), a jump up to 160-170 innings should be just fine.

The ace of the staff, Ricky Romero, has also had a tough month but his overall numbers are still excellent across the board for the season. The rough spell is most likely nothing more than a hiccup for the young lefty.

Shaun Marcum has bounced back nicely after his DL stint. In two starts since returning he’s allowed three earned runs in 10.2 innings while striking out nine and walking only one. After pitching just 15 2/3 innings in the minors last year it remains to be seen how many innings the Jays will let Marcum throw, he’s at 118 right now.

Beyond all the above, there’s still nothing wrong with winning some ballgames down the stretch. Finishing with a winning record doesn’t mean much when you’re in fourth place, but a winning team usually equates to a happy team and that’s the kind of environment where you want all your young guys to be playing.

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With the season’s true mid point having passed this week and its unofficial end to the first half looming with next week’s All-Star break, the timing couldn’t be better to project how the Blue Jays will perform from here on out. With several unexpected offensive performances, both good and bad, this process will be closer to guessing than projecting.

FanGraphs ‘ ZiPS rest of season projection for each player will be shown, along with some analysis and a revised projection (better known as guesswork) based on hunches, the plausibility of certain trends continuing for another eighty games and deep inner thoughts (guessing). This type of writing lends itself to agreements and disagreements— be sure to kindly share some of your own below. Keep in mind ISO will be used in place of slugging percentage for the triple-slash lines.

Aaron Hill Rest of Season ZiPS: .219(BA)/.292(OBP)/.169(ISO) 21 HR

Always best to start with the worst and work on up. Sadly, Hill’s 2010 has been unfathomably bad after last season’s breakout year. Through 297 plate appearances he’s hitting just .189 thanks to a .183 BABIP , both a direct result of his incredibly low 8.5 percent line drive rate on balls in play. The only thing saving him from complete offensive ineptitude is a career high 9.4 percent walk rate and decent .166 isolated power.

The walk rate has fallen each month from April to June, taking his OBP with it. In each of the season’s three months, he’s failed to hit over .200 or have a BABIP over .200. There is almost no sign of a rebound, save this for his track record coming into the year.

Rest of Season RPGW(Revised Projection Guess Work): .225/.298/.165 22 HR

Adam Lind RoS ZiPS: .230/.291/.169 22 HR

If this was going in alphabetical order you’d see Adam second on this list, too. But he’s second here because he’s been equally as bad as Hill but has no injury excuse to partially blame. When ZiPS projects the DH who recently signed a long term deal to put up the above numbers, there is cause for concern. It’s also warranted siince Lind has had his worst ISO of his career to this point at just .146. The .205 batting average and ten homers doesn’t help inspire much confidence either.

Like Hill, it wasn’t reasonable to expect Lind to duplicate his outstanding 2009, but the drop off has been stunning. June saw Lind hit rock bottom with a .208 wOBA. However, he did have a nice 22 percent line drive rate for the month. He also had one month, April, of above average production. One more than Hill.

RoS RPGW: .240/.320/.162 23 HR

Lyle Overbay RoS ZiPS: .245/.327/.155 15 HR

Almost through the disappointing performances. Overbay’s rough season has been easier to handle for Jays fans because he’s most likely gone after this season—or any day now, and there is a top prospect waiting in the wings to take his job.

He’s also bounced back from his poor start, hitting for a higher average and raising his wOBA each month of the season through June. He hit .282 with a 12.2 percent walk rate last month. He’s continued to hit righties well posting a .337 wOBA against them this season. He might not be here for long, but the bounce back should help his trade value.

RoS RPGW: .260/.360/.150 13 HR

Fred Lewis RoS ZiPS: .273/.336/.152 34 DB 12 SB

The first pleasant surprise on the list is Fred Lewis, he was a late addition to the roster and has been productive with Travis Snider on the DL. Cast off by the San Francisco Giants, Lewis has bounced back from a disappointing 2009. 

He’s done a little bit of everything at the plate for the Jays collecting 21 doubles, seven steals in ten attempts, walking 7.4 percent of the time and hitting .277. Expect more of the same, and a few more walks from Lewis in the second half.

RoS RPGW: .271/.350/.157 38 DB 14 SB

Alex Gonzalez RoS ZiPS: .250/.293/.200 22 HR

Gonzalez started off the season with a thunderous, homer fueled, .404 wOBA quickly helping to ease the loss of Marco Scutaro. He then promptly came back to earth with a .305 wOBA in May and then another solid offensive month with June’s .326.

With his slick defense, any offensive barrage is a bonus for the Jays. ZiPS projection is more or less in line with his current OBP and batting average but isn’t buying his current .225 isolated power. Not going to buy it below either as Gonzo hasn’t had an ISO over .200 in a full season, ever. But he should still be able to pop more than just the seven homers ZiPS is projecting the rest of the season.

RoS RPGW: .257/.298/.195 24 HR

John Buck RoS ZiPS: .260/.305/.229 22 HR

Another pleasant surprise from an off-season acquisition who was primarily brought in as a veteran place holder for J.P. Arencibia. Buck’s done just that and even picked up an All-Star invite too. He’s hitting for a career high .274 which he’s also ruining with a career low 3.8 percent walk rate. Buck has always had power posting a full season ISO over .200 twice including 2009’s .237.

Look for him to drift back towards his career .239 batting average and 6.8 percent walk rate and keeping the power on as long as he’s in Toronto.

RoS RPGW: .248/.300/.224 25 HR

Vernon Wells RoS ZiPS: .270/.324/.239 30 HR 41 DB

The resurgence of Wells at the plate isn’t too hard to believe if you overlook last year’s injury riddled campaign. Wells already has 19 homers and 24 doubles while hitting .274 with a .328 OBP. His .373 wOBA would be the third best of his career if it held up ’til seasons end.

His wOBA has fallen each month from April’s .469 to June’s .338. If he stays healthy Wells numbers should fall somewhere in between those two and he should have his first 30 homer season since 2006.

RoS RPGW: .272/.330/.245 33 HR 40 DB

Jose Bautista RoS ZiPS: .234/.351/.254 31 HR 29 DB

Plenty has been written about Bautista’s surprise season already. That’ll happen when you hit 21 homers in the first half of the season after never totaling more than 16 in a full season. Bautista certainly has made the most of his full-time playing status.

His prodigious power and superb 14.6 percent walk rate have more than offset his .236 batting average. The power is a surprise but the walk rate isn’t all that much higher than 2009’s 13.9 or his career mark of 11.3. ZiPS projected Bautista for a .200 ISO before the season but he’s at .296 right now. It’s unlikely Bautista can hit 40 homers but he should come awfully close.

RoS RPGW: .238/.356/.262 35 HR 29 DB

The soon to be infamous RPGW system will return both later this week for a look at the Jays pitching staff and the end of the season.

(The ZiPS projections are from FanGraphs.com, great site that makes articles like this possible)

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Besides the season-long—until recently anyway—home run barrage showering off the bats of Blue Jays hitters, the outstanding starting pitching has been the highlight of the season.

Along with Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil, Shaun Marcum has been outstanding just about every time he’s taken the mound.

Unfortunately, Marcum’s season is going to be taking an unexpected breather for at least the next couple of weeks. The elbow inflammation isn’t expected to be a major problem though, and Marcum should only miss one turn in the rotation thanks to the upcoming All-Star break.

That, coupled with the Blue Jays’ off day on Monday, means they won’t need another starter until July 10 if they send Cecil out on regular rest next Wednesday to take Marcum’s next turn.

In the meantime, that leaves the Jays with an interesting opportunity to play around with an extra roster spot for the next six games. With seven men already in the bullpen and Monday’s aforementioned off day, they don’t have to add another pitcher.

If the Jays are intent, however, on adding a pitcher, one pitcher worth taking another look at is left-hander Jesse Carlson. Just looking at his 4.91 ERA—never a good idea, by the way—you’d be inclined to think he’s the last or close to last option for a call-up. The rest of his numbers look much better though.

He’s struck out 30 batters against just eight walks in 33 innings. His 4.04 tRA is a good deal better than the PCL’s league average 4.84, and his FIP is a healthy 3.65.

He was also useful in 127 big league innings in 2008 and 2009 with a combined 3.52 ERA and 3.90 FIP. Carlson also showed effectiveness versus righties (4.03 FIP, 2.52 K/BB) as well as left-handers (3.78 FIP, 2.53 K/BB). If he came up and was effective, he would make lefties Scott Downs and Brian Tallet that much more expendable at the trade deadline.

The more interesting option would be to call up another position player, under the understanding that Cito Gaston would be implored to use him. This would be the perfect time to get a short five- or six-game look at either Brett Wallace or J.P. Arencibia before the All-Star break.

Five or six games is too short for serious evaluation, of course, but it could be a way for one of them to come up without the added pressure of replacing a veteran like John Buck or Lyle Overbay.

If either were brought up, they’d need to get out there and play every day to make it worth the trip. Wallace could be slotted in pretty easily either by splitting the six games between first and DH or perhaps two games apiece at third, first, and DH.

The Blue Jays have a four-day break for the All-Star Game, as they don’t get back to work until Friday the 16th. That gives the Jays two more weeks to possibly move Lyle Overbay, at which point Wallace would never have to head back down to Las Vegas.

Likewise, calling up Arencibia to make a four- or five-game debut would give him his first taste of the majors in a slightly lower pressure environment. If he comes up thinking he’s headed back down no matter how good or bad he does, he just might be all that more relaxed—if being relaxed making your big league debut were an option, but you get the point.

Just in the same way things could work out for Wallace, either catcher, be it John Buck or Jose Molina, could be dealt in the next two weeks, leaving room for Arencibia to stick around. The Jays would be able to work around the extra position player if they chose to pitch Brian Tallet on Saturday the 10th and go with a six man ‘pen for three or four days headed into the break.

Watching one of your team’s top pitchers go down is never enjoyable, but with the way the schedule breaks over the next two weeks, the Jays could give their fans something to keep them interested while he’s on the shelf.

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As the Blue Jays season approaches the half way mark, several positive and negative trends have carried along long enough that extra attention is warranted. By far the two most concerning trends are the continuing futility of Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. Both have been bad enough at the plate this year to generate serious concern about their futures.

This is especially true because both players are in what should be the primes of their careers but yet are having their worst seasons to date. Even more troubling is that the Blue Jays have committed to long term contracts with both players. The struggles from both players are showing up in both their traditional and more advanced statistics. The small sample size excuse, as well as the poor BABIP excuse are melting away leaving a great deal of concern.

Aaron Hill’s problems are less concerning than Lind’s for multiple reasons. First, Lind has been rated as a poor fielder in his time in left field, one of the least demanding defensive positions. That has largely regulated him to a DH role leaving his hitting as his only means of contributing to the Jays.

Hill on the other hand is generally considered to be an above average defensive second baseman, although UZR has pegged him as slightly below average since 2009. Second base is a much more demanding position than left field. Even a slightly below average second baseman has more value than an average left fielder, which Lind is far from being.

The second issue that yields more concern for Lind than Hill is their contracts. Hill is only guaranteed five million dollars for 2011, after which the Jays hold three option years covering 2012-2014. If the Jays decide he’s unlikely to be worth his option price in any year after ’11 they can walk away. Lind on the other hand is guaranteed 5.15 million dollars from 2011-2013, with no options until 2014.

Based on their track records before their 2009 breakout seasons neither should have been expected to repeat last year’s performance in 2010. The problem is that they have both nose dived below any previous level of production thus far.

Lind is a career .272 hitter who’s hit just .205 this season while his 7.5 percent walk rate is slightly higher than his career 7.0 percent. His power has also dropped, after never posting a full season ISO lower than .156 he’s sitting at .144 in 2010. Most troubling is his huge spike in strikeouts. After striking out in 18.1 and 18.7 percent of his at-bats in 2008 and 2009 he’s at 27 percent this season.

The strikeout spike demands a look at his contact rates and plate discipline numbers. And there’s nothing reassuring there either, he’s chasing 31.5 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. This after chasing just 24.7 percent a season ago. Lind’s also swung and missed 10.3 percent of the time, up from 7.2 percent in ’09.

Again, looking at Hill’s numbers there’s less to be concerned about than Lind. Not by much though. Hill has been able to draw a walk in 10.5 percent of his plate appearances, a marked improvement over his 7.0 percent career rate. He’s also maintained some power with a .182 ISO that’s much better than any ISO over a full season from 2005-2008.

But he’s still stuck with a .191 batting average and an almost unfathomable .182 BABIP. The BABIP looked to be the culprit earlier in the season for Hill. Now however, 236 at-bats into his 2010 season other factors have emerged. The biggest of which is Hill’s 8.6 percent line drive rate and 52 percent flyball rate. Both numbers are way off his career norms and killing any chance of BABIP rebound. A return to his career 19.1 percent line drive rate and 39.9 percent flyball rate are Hill’s only hope at this point.

How Hill is going to do that is another question entirely. The statistics can only go so far in identifying problems, trends and reasons for regression or improvement.

At this point Jays fans would be best served to believe that Hill and Lind can’t possibly be this bad, no matter the reason, and wait for the rebound. Especially for Lind who only has a limited means for bringing a return on the Jays investment. 

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