Kuzul

As the Minnesota Twins play their last series of the 2012 season, take solace in the fact that things are never as bad as they seem. Even though the Twins are currently battling to avoid finishing last in the American League, they are nowhere near the worst team in baseball. That honor goes to the Houston Astros once again. 

A look at the Minnesota Twins’ recent history also shows that a quick turnaround is possible.  

The last time the Twins finished consecutive seasons in last place was 1999 and 2000. Over these two seasons, they lost an average of 95 games. Within two years, in 2002, they won the AL Central with 94 wins.

Here’s a look at nine takeaways from this season that provides some hope that the Twins can duplicate this feat.

The Twins are shedding some of the deadwood

Just before the trading deadline in July, the Twins traded Francisco Liriano to the Chicago White Sox. An exceptional rookie season in 2006 ended with a 12-3 record with a 2.16 ERA and the need for Tommy John surgery. Since returning in 2008, he has never able to replicate that success. His next best season was 2010 when he finished 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA. Before being traded this year, Liriano was 3-10 with a 5.31 ERA. 

In August, the Twins finally had enough of Nick Blackburn and optioned him outright to their Triple-A affiliate, removing him form their 40-man roster. With a career 43-55 record over six seasons, Blackburn never finished with a winning record. Yet the team kept giving him a regular turn in the starting rotation. This was his worst season with a 4-9 record and a 7.39 ERA. 

Last week the Twins granted Tsuyoshi Nishioka’s request for a release from his contract. In two seasons, he played in only 71 games—with only three this year. He will head back to Japan with a .215 batting average and 14 errors in the field for a .957 fielding percentage.

Trevor Plouffe has emerged as the Twins’ third baseman

After failing to claim the shortstop position in 2011, Plouffe took over at third base when the Twins sent down Danny Valencia in early May. At the time Valencia, who had led the Twins in RBIs in 2011, was hitting only .190.

For most of the summer Plouffe found himself in a home-run derby with Josh Willingham as they took turns leading the Twins. An injured thumb in late July kept him out of the lineup for almost a month. Despite that he is second on the team with 24 home runs.

Glen Perkins has developed into a potential closer

 Like another former left-handed pitcher, Perkins started his career as a starter but found success at the end of the bullpen. For Eddie Guardado, it was only one season as a starter before moving to the bullpen. He would eventually end up as the Twins’ closer and led the AL with 45 saves in 2002—the same year the Twins won their first AL Central Division title.

As a starter in 2008, Perkins finished with a 12-4 record in 26 starts. He made 17 starts in 2009 and a single start in 2010. Over the last two seasons he has found success out of the bullpen appearing in over 65 games each season with a 2.47 ERA and a total of 18 saves. This season he has 16 saves in 20 opportunities heading into the final series against the Blue Jays.

Jared Burton has become a force at the end of the bullpen

 After appearing in only 10 games and pitching a total of eight innings over the last two seasons for the Cincinnati Reds, Burton pitched in a career-high 63 games this year with his lowest ERA in five seasons at 2.18 that led the Twins. After Matt Capps injured his shoulder, he took turns with Perkins as the closer and earned five saves.

Perkins and Burton have become a pretty formidable left-right tandem at the end of the bullpen.

Ben Revere is a rising star for the Twins

In his third season with the Twins, Revere continues to get better. His batting average, currently at .286, has climbed every season. He’s also the first Twin to steal 30 or more bases in consecutive seasons since Chuck Knoblauch last did it four straight seasons from 1994 to 1997. He also plays spectacular defense, earning a GIBBY in 2011 for the catch of the year. This season, in 120 games, he has not committed an error.

Justin Morneau is back

In 2010 Morneau was in the midst of the best season in his career when everything fell apart on July 7. Leading the team with 18 home runs and 56 RBIs, he suffered a concussion against the Blue Jays, which ended his season.

In 2011 he was only able to play in 69 games hitting only four home runs. This year he has played in 134 games. He hit 19 home runs and drove in 77 RBIs.

Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham are significant additions to the roster

When general manager Terry Ryan failed to sign Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel, it looked like things were going in the wrong direction, fast. Then he made a couple of signings that at the time seemed to be pretty modest.  While both Doumit and Willingham are hitting right at their career batting averages, both have provided power to the Twins’ lineup.

Both Doumit and Willingham had career highs in home runs and RBIs for the Twins—Doumit with 18 home runs and 75 RBIs and Willingham with 35 home runs and 110 RBIs.

Joe Mauer is an iron man

In 2011 Mauer played in only 82 games, the fewest games in his career since his rookie season. This year he has matched his career high playing in 146 games, splitting time at catcher with Doumit and playing 30 games at first base.

After hitting only .287, low for Mauer standards, he challenged for his fourth batting title with a .320 batting average.

Scott Diamond is the ace the Twins have been looking for

 A former Rule-5 draft pick from the Braves in 2011, Diamond struggled last season finishing with a 1-5 record in seven starts with a 5.08 ERA. Fortunately, the Twins were able to work out a deal to keep Diamond, and this year he emerged as the leading starter on the Twins’ rotation that had nine pitchers make at least 11 starts. He led all starters with 26 starts, 168 innings pitched, 12 wins and 3.54 ERA.

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For the Minnesota Twins, their Jekyll-and-Hyde starter, Francisco Liriano, is once again throwing like a pitcher that knows what he’s doing. The timing is almost perfect as the non-waiver trading deadline approaches, and teams are looking for help to make a push in the second half of the season.

The credit for his turnaround has to be given to Scott Diamond.

This season has been a microcosm of Liriano’s career since having Tommy John surgery that ended his 2006 season and caused him to miss the entire 2007 season. In the even years of 2008 and 2010, Liriano had a 20-14 record with a decent 3.70 ERA. In the odd seasons of 2009 and 2011, he went 14-23 with a 5.45 ERA.

That certainly meant that heading into the 2012 season Liriano would have a better season than the 9-10 record with a 5.09 ERA he had in 2011. Of course, that has not been the case.

After opening the season 1-5 with a 9.45 ERA in six starts, the Twins moved him to the bullpen after his May 7th loss to the Angles.

The day after Liriano’s fifth loss, left-hander Diamond would make his first start of the season.

While watching from the bullpen, Liriano saw Diamond lead the Twins in May with a 3-1 record in four starts with a 2.27 ERA. 

Liriano was promoted back to the starting rotation on May 30th. Since then he has a 3-2 record in eight starts with a 2.74 ERA.

Perhaps all he needed was someone to show by example what it takes to win.

It would explain the results in 2006. Liriano joined the Twins rotation midway through the season. That year, another left-hander, Johan Santana, earned his second American League Cy Young award with a 19-6 record and a league-leading 2.77 ERA.

Liriano was 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA in 28 games and 16 starts. It was in August that he started having problems with his elbow that would eventually end his season, leading to the Tommy John surgery.

By the time he returned to the Twins rotation in 2008, Santana was in New York pitching for the Mets. Liriano had lost his mentor, leaving the likes of Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn to show him the way. While two of the three have been serviceable starters, none were ever anywhere close to dominating hitters like Santana. 

Now, with Diamond dominating on the mound for the Twins, Liriano once again has another left-hander to show him how to win.

Just in time to turn around his 2012 season and allow the Twins get some value in a trade for him. 

Hopefully, wherever he lands there will be another dominating left-hander. Perhaps the Twins could package Liriano and Denard Span in a deal to Washington. Gio Gonzalez currently leads the Nationals with an 11-3 record and a 3.01 ERA, and he is left-handed.

If the Twins can get something in return for Liriano they should give all the credit to Diamond.

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Trevor Plouffe needs to send Danny Valencia a thank-you card—perhaps some flowers or a box of chocolates as well. 

Two years ago, Valencia broke into the Twins‘ starting lineup at midseason. He finished with a .311 batting average and seven home runs in 85 games.

The Twins had finally found a long-term solution at third base, something they had been trying to do since the departure of Corey Koskie following the 2004 season.

Oh, how fleeting success can be. If not for the struggles that Valencia had to open the season, causing his demotion to Rochester, Plouffe might still be the Twins’ utility player, coming off the bench for an occasional start at one of five positions.

On Friday, in the opener of a three-game series against the Brewers, Plouffe went 2-for-4, hitting two more home runs. That gives him 14 on the season to lead the Twins.

Over the last 30 days, no one has hit more home runs than Plouffe, leading the majors with 12. The White Sox‘ Adam Dunn is second with 11, followed by Jose Bautista and Carlos Gonzalez with 10.   

After a slow start to the season when he was coming off the bench, Plouffe was struggling to hit his weight. During his power surge, he is hitting .321, raising his season average to .240.

Manager Ron Gardenhire and the Twins staff obviously saw something in Plouffe to stick with him.

Instead of being the Twins’ utility player, he has entrenched himself as the third baseman, hitting home runs at a Jim Thome pace.

Thome, who is eighth all-time with 607 career home runs, has averaged 13.7 at-bats per home run over 22 seasons. While in Minnesota, he hit 37, jacking them at a rate of one every 13 at-bats.

Plouffe is averaging a home run every 10.4 at-bats for the season.

Dunn, who leads the majors with 23 home runs, is averaging one every 9.7 at-bats, and the Rangers‘ Josh Hamilton, who is having an MVP-type season, averages one every 10.6 at-bats. That’s pretty good company to be associated with this season.

Even though Plouffe only has 146 at-bats this season and is unlikely to continue to hit at such a pace, that won’t stop us from projecting how many home runs he might hit for the season.

Plouffe has played in 44 of 63 games this season—only 70 percent of the Twins’ games. This percentage will increase with his recent success and insertion into the starting lineup.

In those games, he has averaged 3.3 at-bats. Projecting that Plouffe will play in at least 82 of the Twins’ final 99 games this season, that would give him 126 games played for the season with 415 at-bats. At his current pace, that projects to approximately 40 home runs on the season.

Only two players in the franchise history of the Minnesota Twins/Washington Senators have hit at least 40 home runs in a season. Harmon Killebrew, who owns nine of the top 10 single-season marks for home runs in Minnesota, did it seven times. In the other two seasons, he fell just short, hitting 39 home runs. 

The last time Killebrew hit at least 40 home runs was in 1970, when he led the Twins with 41.

It is an extreme stretch, and unfair to Plouffe, to compare him to Killebrew.

By the time Killebrew was 26, the same age as Plouffe this season, he was in his ninth major-league season and on his way to leading the league in home runs with his third 40-plus season in 1962.

Plouffe hasn’t even completed his first season as a starter, but if he can continue to produce at the plate, he might finally be the player the Twins have been looking for to take over third base. 

Perhaps he could send Valencia an autographed baseball, thanking him for the opportunity to be the everyday third baseman and the chance to make history for the Twins.

Then again, with only 11 Twins ever to hit at least 30 homers in a season, the odds are stacked against Plouffe; after all, he’s only played 23 games at third base.

But none of that will stop us from dreaming of the chance for a 40-home run season.

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For the Minnesota Twins, things are stating to look up. With their win over the Cubs on Saturday, they won their fourth consecutive series—an impressive feat considering they have only one seven-series all season.

Granted this success comes at the expense of Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland and the Cubs. With the exception of the Cubs, all of these teams still have a better record than the Twins.

The single-biggest reason for the Twins turnaround can be pinpointed to one player—starting pitcher Scott Diamond.

Before Diamond joined the rotation, the Twins were the last team in baseball to win their 10th game of the season, taking 25 games to achieve the mark. With his win over the Cubs on Saturday, the last team in baseball still trying to get to 20 wins, Diamond now leads the Twins with a 5-1 record and a 1.61 ERA.

Before Diamond (BD) the Twins were 7-21, winning only one of nine series. After Diamond joined the rotation (AD) they are 17-13 winning six of their last 11 series.

Diamond has stepped in and provided the kind of leadership the Twins have been waiting for from fellow left-hander, Francisco Liriano for the past five seasons. he has become Minnesota’s stopper, with the Twins winning six of his seven starts since taking his first turn in the rotation on May 8th, a 5-0 win over the Angels.

At one time the worst team in baseball, the Twins have won eight of their last 10 games and find themselves just one-half game behind the Royals and only 2.5 games behind the disappointing Tigers in the AL Central standings.

The Twins have passed the Cubs and Padres for the worst record and currently have the same record as the Rockies, the same number of wins as the Royals and just a half game behind the Astros.

OK, so they still have a long way to, but as I stated at the beginning, things are starting to look up.

Diamond’s lift to the starting pitching has had a ripple effect through the team.

Twins starters were 5-17 with a 6.75 ERA BD, compared to 11-10 and a 5.28 ERA AD.

In the 28 games BD, the Twins scored 96 runs averaging 3.4 runs per game. The problem is they allowed their opponents to score 158 runs, an 5.6 runs per game average.

In the 30 games AD, they have averaged almost two more runs per contest, scoring 160 runs for a 5.3 average. Their runs allowed has dropped by more than a full run per game to a 4.4 average. 

In 1991, the Twins found themselves in a similar situation. They finished the month of May in fifth place, 5.5 games behind in the AL West. When the calendar turned to June, they rattled off 15 straight wins on their way to a 22-6 mark that propelled them to first place in the division.

This season, at the start of June, the Twins were five games back and in fifth place in the AL Central. With the sixth win of the month they have already matched their win total in April.

In 1991, it was Jack Morris who led Twins starters going 6-0 in June. So far this year, Diamond is 2-0 in June.

While it’s a nice dream to think about the Twins catching the rest of the AL Central, the truth is, in 1991 the Twins along with a solid month from Morris, had Scott Erickson go 5-1 and Kevin Tapani add another three wins that June.

Diamond might have some help from P.J. Walters who joined the rotation in May. Walters is 2-1 in six starts with a 4.42 ERA, and the Twins are 4-2 in his starts.

After Walters, there’s no other Twins starter with a winning record. The next closest is Cole DeVries with a 1-1 record in three starts with a 4.20 ERA. Unfortunately, the Twins sent him back to Rochester.

Whatever Diamond is doing to be effective it’s contagious—after all Nick Blackburn is 2-0 in his three starts AD, all wins for the Twins. 

If he can turn Blackburn into a winner, then anything is possible.

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Justin Morneau is the Minnesota Twins‘ first baseman. The problem is over the past two seasons he only played 133 games at first—that’s only 10 more games than he played at the position in all of 2009.

Between 2006 and 2008, Morneau was an iron man for the Twins. Over those three seasons he averaged 149.7 games at first, and in 2008 he appeared in all 163 games the team played.

Then came that fateful day in Toronto—July 7th, 2010.

The play was a routine slide into second base to break up a double play when Morneau took a knee to the head. He came out of the game and Michael Cuddyer would replace him at first base. He did not play again that season and has been struggling since to return to the form that had his name in consideration for a second American League MVP. 

At the time he was leading the Twins with a .345 average, 18 home runs and 56 RBIs. 

In a report from the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Morneau is feeling better than he has in quite some time. The problem is the results are not yet showing up in the box score.  This spring he has the second most at-bats for the Twins with 37 through Friday, March 23rd. The problem is he is only hitting .108 with four hits in 12 games.

Manager Ron Gardenhire is not planning on playing Morneau at first over the remaining Grapefruit League schedule, opting to use the opportunity to assess what other options he has in case Morneau is unable to go come opening day.

Gardenhire’s main option over the last two seasons to replace Morneau has been Cuddyer, who is now with the Colorado Rockies.

All is not lost. The Twins have plenty of options if needed, some that could even provide a boost to their lineup. 

Here are the top five options.

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A quick look at the Twins‘ projected starting lineup for 2012 poses one serious question: where will the runs come from?

So far this spring that question remains unanswered.

With only eight spring games played so far, there is plenty of time for things to fall into place. However, the results so far are not creating a lot of excitement for the upcoming season at Target Field, and it looks like the three-year-old ballpark will once again be the biggest draw for Minnesotans this season.

In their eight games the Twins have only scored 22 runs. At a time when supposedly the hitters are  ahead of the pitchers, Minnesota is averaging less than three runs a game. At the same time they have been yielding 4.5 runs per game. 

So far the 34 players the Twins have used this spring have a total of  only 19 RBI. The projected starting lineup, with Ryan Doumit as the designated hitter, has only seven of them. Compare that to former Twins Michael Cuddyer with the Rockies and Delmon Young with the Tigers, who have combined for nine.

The long ball has consistently been a problem with Minnesota, and so far the team has hit only two spring training home runs—neither by any projected starter in the lineup. Young by himself has already hit two for the Tigers.

An argument can be made that spring training doesn’t mean a whole lot, and that the results can be thrown out once the regular season opens.

However, a quick scan of the records for the American League Central teams so far aligns pretty close to how I expect the division to finish in 2012.

The Tigers have the best record this spring at 6-1, followed by Kansas City at 4-3, the Twins at 3-5, Cleveland at 2-4 and the White Sox bringing up the rear at 1-4. 

There are some bright spots, however.

Second baseman Alexi Casilla is hitting .455 this spring, after struggling last year in Grapefruit League play, batting only .200. That struggle carried over into the season and he only hit .260 in 97 games.

With Casilla’s strong spring, it means Tsuyoshi Nishioka is left battling for the Twins’ utility infielder role. Nishioka, who leads the team with 18 at-bats this spring, is hitting .278.

Center fielder Denard Span looks to be fully recovered from concussion symptoms that kept him out of the lineup for a good portion for the season in 2011. So far in four games he’s batting .500. 

And while Justin Morneau is struggling with only one hit in eight at-bats, his likely successor at first base, Chris Parmelee, is batting .300 in four games, with one of the two home runs the Twins have hit.

Perhaps the brightest spot so far this spring is the fact that catcher Joe Mauer has played in four games and appears fully recovered from bilateral leg weakness that limited  him to only eight games in all of spring training last season. 

While the Twins will be improved over their 99-loss season from 2011, they still have a long way to go to get back to the 94-win season of 2010.

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Since being renamed the Minnesota Twins general manager, Terry Ryan, according to Baseball-Reference.com, has signed more free agents than any other team in baseball.

On paper, at best it looks like the Twins are no better than they were in 2011, and perhaps a little worse. His approach appears to be to replace what has been lost, and hope what remains returns to the form that delivered 94 wins in 2010, instead of the result in 2011.

With 20 signings, Ryan and the Twins have signed as many free agents as the Tigers, White Sox and Indians combined.

The problem is Ryan appears to be rebuilding the Twins farm system that is not as strong as it was when he stepped down in 2007, with 75 percent of the free agents signed to minor league contracts.

Perhaps one can take some solace in that all 15 of the players signed to minor-league contracts have been invited to spring training. 

The five free agents added to the 40-man roster include catcher/first baseman Ryan Doumit, left fielder Josh Willingham, second baseman Jamey Carroll and starting pitcher Jason Marquis. The re-signing of closer Matt Capps rounds out the Ryan’s work so far.

Gone are free agents Jose Mijares, who signed with Kansas City, Jason Kubel, who is now in Arizona, Michael Cuddyer, who will play with Colorado and Joe Nathan, with the current two-time AL Pennant winner Texas Rangers.

While signing starting pitcher Marquis is a solid move, with a career 104-98 record and a 4.55 ERA, he’s not the staff ace many Twins fans were hoping for.

The addition of Willingham almost offsets the loss of Cuddyer—almost. Gone is the flexibility to play just about anywhere on the field. On the plus side, Willingham brings a bit more power, averaging 16.5 home runs over eight seasons, compared to Cuddyer’s 12.8 per season in 11 years with Minnesota.Even with the worst record in the American League, Minnesota was second only to the Yankees in attendance with 3.16 millions fans attending games at Target Field. With no blockbuster deal, Ryan and the Twins must think that the lure of Target Field will overpower the on-field performance for at least one more season.

The honeymoon of a new ballpark will only carry them so far.

The Twins need to be more than just improved over last season—after all, it shouldn’t take much to improve on their 63-99 record of last season. They need to contend for the AL Central in 2012, or the fans will start looking forward to the Vikings season come August.

The timing to reduce the payroll comes at the wrong time. The Twins need to make a bold move to improve the team. Returning to the success of winning the division only to make a first-round exit in the playoffs is no longer acceptable.

The expectation with the revenue from Target Field was to improve the team and bring another World Series Championship to Minnesota.

Anything less than that is a failure—and Ryan has not even come close with the moves made so far.

All is not lost, yet. Perhaps Ryan is looking to bundle many of those minor-league signees to make a blockbuster trade before the season starts.

Of course, that would be totally out of character and unprecedented for the Twins GM.

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It’s obvious after the Minnesota Twins finished the 2011 season with the second-worst record since the franchise moved to the Twin Cities, the team has plenty of needs.

The team needs a couple of solid starting pitchers, an effective reliever, a power-hitting corner outfielder and an effective middle infield combination.

For general manager Terry Ryan, it appears that the wheeling and dealing is done, and from the looks of things, with no blockbuster deals, the team will be taking a long, slow ride to respectability.

Ryan, taking no big swings to improve the Twins, is relying for the most part, on the current roster of players to improve over last season. The hopes on the 2012 season is that many of these players will return to form that had the Twins winning six division titles over nine seasons.

The only changes to the lineup appear to be Ben Revere taking over one of the corner outfield positions, Josh Willingham the other, and Jamey Carroll manning one of the middle infield positions.

Here are 12 things the Twins need for a successful 2012 season.

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This was not how the Twins‘ 2011 season was supposed to go.

Coming off consecutive AL Central Division titles, and on the 20th anniversary of their last World Series championship, this season was supposed to be the year they stepped up and finally made it past the divisional round of the playoffs.

Currently tied with the Kansas City Royals at 23 games behind the division-leading Detroit Tigers, the Twins are poised to accomplish the exact opposite in 2011—going from winning 94 games and finishing first in the AL Central in 2010 to finishing last.

Since Ron Gardenhire took over as manager in 2002, the lowest the Twins have finished in the division is third—in 2005 and 2007.

On Sept. 10, 1991 the Twins were 85-54 with an eight-and-a-half game lead on the rest of the American League West. They would finish with the best record in the AL, at 95-67—second only to the Pittsburgh Pirates. This was a 21-game turnaround from the previous season when they finished last of the seven teams in the AL West.

I compared the rosters and the performance of the Twins to uncover what changed to propel them from the depths of the AL West in 1990 to the pinnacle of baseball in 1991. Surprisingly, there were only a few changes in the starting lineup and starting pitching rotation that would see the side catapult from last to first in a single season.

Can the Twins learn anything from that historical reference that might help turn around their dreadful 2011 season, and hopefully return to championship form in 2012?

Here’s a look at what changed in 1991, and what the Twins could do for 2012.

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This year everything has gone wrong for the Twins and it was inevitable that Jim Thome would be traded. It makes sense that he should return to where it all started 20 seasons ago when he made his major league debut on September 4th, 1991. Thome has hit 335 of his 602 home runs while wearing a Cleveland uniform.

In less than two seasons with Minnesota, Thome hit 37 home runs, more than any other player on the Twins roster over that time. In 2010 he led the team with 25 home runs, averaging a home run every 11.04 at bats when the Twins won 94 games and their sixth AL Central division title since 2002 when Ron Gardenhire took over as manager. 

I started thinking about some of the players the Twins had signed in the twilight of their career. Many of them were brought in because they were a low-cost option at the time, having made their mark on baseball with another team. 

There have been several players who signed with the Twins later in their career and achieved a significant milestone.

Some of these players made quite an impact and helped the Twins achieve great things, while others were a veteran presence on some young teams trying to find their identity.

I poured over the Twins rosters since they started play in 1961, looking for players who joined the team later in their career. 

Here are the top 20. The criteria included their impact on the Twins, their performance while in Minnesota and their career success.

The players ranked from No. 12 through No. 20 are all pretty much interchangeable. Once we get to those players that helped the Twins between 1987 and 1991, it gets interesting.

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