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Charlie Morton has a fastball. He also has what’s been colorfully described as “filthy” stuff, pitches with strange spins and angles that are likely to confuse batters, due to body motions basically peculiar to him. So why isn’t he a winning pitcher?

One example came in the final game of the Mets series. He had gotten through three scoreless innings, and was struggling in the fourth. Lucas Duda, of all people, hit a two-run double.

The reason appears to be that Duda had “read” Morton’s pattern from his first at bat: changeup, fast ball, then another changeup.

On pitch three of the fourth inning, Duda knew what to look for, and took advantage of this knowledge, his generally low batting average notwithstanding. In essence, Morton had outsmarted himself.

A better mix might have been, fastball, fastball, changeup the first time, and changeup, fastball, fastball, the second.

In poker, a “bluff” (a bet made with a weak hand), is most effective if the play has a reputation for always having a strong hand when he bets. This allows the bluffer to “steal” a few hands he would otherwise not win.

Likewise, a tricky pitch such as a changeup is most likely to work if the pitcher has a reputation for pitching fastballs, meaning that the changeup comes a genuine surprise. With Morton, there’s no surprise factor.

Eventually, players may start to catch on to someone’s bluffing habits, and start to win by calling with any little thing. Then it’s up to the bluffer to switch back to betting with only good hands, to catch inferior ones.

So if even Morton uses his fancy stuff too much, batters will catch on and start hitting him. But unlike some other Pirates’ finesse pitchers (e.g. Zach Duke), Morton has a legitimate fastball. Which is say that he should use it more often to challenge batters, instead of trying to trick them all the time.

The fastball is the staple of most pitchers, because it is the hardest thing to hit, all other things being equal. The problem is, if a hurler has nothing but a fast ball, batters will catch on. That’s why a good pitcher keeps the tricky stuff in reserve.

Likewise, a poker player who bets with only a good hand will lose callers as they wise up, which is why a good one mixes it up with bluffs.

And in all, Morton did have a decent five inning, two run, no decision start against the Mets. He was eligible for a win that might have been obtained with better support.

Morton appears to have improved following his stint in the minors, at least relative to earlier this year. And the record from last year suggests that he can be good most of the time. The problem does not seem to be with mechanics. Meaning that it might not be corrected with a few more bullpen sessions.

Instead, Morton might be well advised to spend some time at a poker table, learning out to mix up his play.

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No, the bad news is that the Pittsburgh Pirates didn’t exactly win the recent series against the division-leading Cincinnati Reds. The good news is that the two lost games were “ties” (at the end of nine innings).

Paul Maholm, Charlie Morton and Brian Burres all had quality starts going into the seventh inning and received no decisions. Late-inning surges won the final game outright, and gave the visitors chances in the other two encounters.

Meaning that the Pirates COULD have won the series if they had split the extra innings games. Even a sweep wouldn’t have been out of the question if the Pirates had done better in earlier innings in those games. In Great American Ball Park. That would have been awesome.

That would have left the season series a very competitive 8-8. The Pirates can actually beat the Chicago Cubs in a season series, and are giving indications that they could beat the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds as well with a somewhat stronger team.

The encouraging thing about the improvements this year against Milwaukee and Cincinnati is that they have mainly taken place on the road. That’s because Pittsburgh’s inexperienced team has the worst “away” record in the majors. If the Pirates can start winning more games outright outside of PNC Park, and then consolidate at home, they might actually amount to something.

Still, the Houston Astros, and to a lesser extent, the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central give the Bucs major problems. Recent successes against these teams give the Pirates hope of doing better here as well.

But here, Pittsburgh has to work on winning home series before they can think about trying to beat these teams on their turf. They have one more series each against these teams in PNC Park to show what they can now do.

An across-the-board improvement within their own division would almost guarantee that some other team would find its way into the division cellar. That would be an important first step for the Pirates.

The Pirates still aren’t a good team. But recently, they’ve shown signs of being “almost good enough.” The Bucs have the youngest team in the majors. Further improvement might actually make them a force, at least within their own division.

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During their respective 2010 tenures with the Pittsburgh Pirates (as of today), James McDonald has pitched 41 innings while Octavio Dotel has thrown 40. In other regards, they are strikingly similar.

They’ve both faced 173 batters. They’ve both given up 19 earned runs. They’ve both walked 19 batters (counting intentional passes). And their ERAs are also very close: 4.17 for McDonald versus 4.28 for Dotel. 

So are they about the same value, or is one decidely more valuable than the other?

Here are some other relevant statistics: McDonald has given up 40 hits, versus 35 for Dotel. McDonald has struck out 40 batters compared to 48 for Dotel. But the latter has given up more home runs (five), versus only one for the current Pirate. Balancing these statistics, they still look much the same.

Except that Dotel’s FIP (sabermetric ERA) of 4.22 closely matches (thereby supporting) his actual one. But McDonald’s FIP of 3.00 is decidedly better than his ERA, suggesting better things to come.

And most of the “intangibles” are in McDonald’s favor. They are at the opposite ends of the age spectrum (relative to professional baseball). McDonald is a young thrower who will likely get better. Dotel is an aging hurler who probably won’t.

Also, McDonald is making MLB’s “minimum wage” of $400,000 a year, escalated for inflation. Dotel charges what the market will bear, which could be ten times that much. That’s not a small consideration for a low budget team like the Pirates.

And the club has four more years of control over McDonald. Dotel’s contract ends at the end of the season, unless one of the parties exercises a $4.5 million mutual option. Who knows if he will be back?

McDonald is a starter, which is to say that he will end up pitching more innings, as soon as he finishes ramping up. As a closer, there is basically a limit to the number of innings that Dotel will pitch. No one closes every game in the season even for one inning.

Dotel looks more valuable because he has participated in more games, and this participation is represented by a large number of saves. But contributing fractional pieces of games really isn’t as valuable as putting “whole” games, or at least whole starts, on the board. And McDonald lasts longer (on average) than most of Pittsburgh’s other starters.

On the whole, the Pittsburgh Pirates got the better of the Dotel-McDonald deal “straight up.” And that’s without counting the fact that they also received outfield prospect Andrew Lambo.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a cellar-dwelling team for as long as most fans remember. But often, in September, they have their moment of glory by taking three games from a division leading team in PNC Park.

This is what may be happening now, against the Atlanta Braves. A win tonight would result in a sweep. Even a loss would not change the fact that the Pirates have already clinched the three game series.

In 2006, the Pirates swept the New York Mets in three games at home, thereby delaying their clinching of the division. Two of the winners were lefties Paul Maholm and Zach Duke. In the third game, Tom Gorzelanny, also a southpaw, started, but was rescued by a “committee” of  relievers, with closer Matt Capps getting the win.

Last year, the Bucs took three out of four at home from the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers. Paul Maholm, Dan McCutchen, and Zach Duke all pitched good games, but only Duke got a win; the other two were “no decisions” for the two starters and split 1-1.

The remaining game was pitched by a committee, with Jeff Karstens being lifted after three innings, Donnie Veal getting the win in a 3-1 game, and three more relievers protecting the lead.

On the other side was a reliever named James McDonald (traded by the Dodgers to the Pirates in July 2010 as partial consideration for reliever Octavio Dotel).

Monday night, Brian Burres put up one of his better starts against the Braves, giving up only one run in six innings (This is his third quality start, giving up a total of four runs in nineteen innings, all at home.). Even the Pirates were good enough to score three runs off Tommy Hanson, resulting in a win.

Last night, James McDonald pitched seven scoreless innings, including finding his way out of a couple of jams. Veteran Tim Hudson put up only six blank frames, and then came apart in the seventh, to the tune of five runs, leading to a 5-0 victory for the home team.

In his best three (home) games, against the Colorado Rockies, Florida Marlins, and Atlanta Braves, McDonald has given up one run in twenty innings. But his five inning, five-run start against the Mets, though technically in PNC Park, was of “away” game quality, and his four away games have been (mostly) this bad.

The last game of the current series features Zach Duke, the hero of the previous two series. Paul Maholm will open the next one.

In the two earlier years, the losses to the Pirates were just speed bumps on the way to the division leadership for the Mets and the Dodgers. This year, though, the impact on Atlanta may be more meaningful.

They’ve already lost their division lead as a result of the past two losses. Another loss tonight could push them down into a tie for the wild card if San Francisco wins.

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Jose Bautista has a very good eye for the difference between balls and strikes. (Even otherwise critical former teammates of the Pittsburgh Pirates would concede that much.) Maybe too good an eye. Ordinarily that is an advantage. But yesterday afternoon, may have been a different story.

Saturday was not one of Bautista’s better games. No home runs for one. And no other hits, either. Whatever contribution he is going to make will be through his other main weapon, walks.

Two strike outs in his first two at bats. The third time he was up, the Yankees led 5-3. But with two outs in the top of the fifth, Bautista worked the count to a full 3-2, then drew a fourth ball for a walk. Vernon Wells hit a deep outfield single, sending Bautista around to third. Starter Javier Vasquez, who was approaching 90 pitches, six recently to Bautista, was lifted one out before he could be credited with a win.

Lyle Overbay smacked a double scoring both Bautista and Wells. Tie score 5-5.

Looked at in the traditional way, Bautista is the 0 for 2 batter that the Pirates remember. Looked at using on base percentage, he is a respectable .333, with the one walk counting toward both “plate appearances,” and “on bases.” He stepped up to the plate again in the top of the seventh inning to see what he could do.

An unhittable pitch off the plate. Ball one. Another unhittable lob, but this one on in the inside of the plate. Strike one. Our hero didn’t even try to swing at either one.

A third throw is taken for a ball. But the fourth one is over the plate, just at shoulder height, barely inside the strike zone. Strike two.

A replay shows that to be the case, albeit on the borderline. It’s so close that we wouldn’t fault the umpire for going the other way.

Bautista doesn’t like the call. He protests, then got back into the batter’s box before anything happens.

The next pitch was clearly a ball.  Full count, 3-2. The final “payoff throw” was off the plate. Ball four, or so it seemed. Bautista started toward first.

But the umpire raised his fist. Strike three. You’re out. Bautista protests again. This time he’s “out” again—of the game. It’s just as well, because he’s not going to be much use in the rest of this game.

It was America’s President Abraham Lincoln who advised, “Yield in large matters to which you have no more than equal claim, and in small matters, though clearly your own.”

The first call was clearly borderline, and should not have been argued. Umpires do get the benefit of close, and not so close calls. And if it wasn’t, maybe there wouldn’t have been a second “close” call.

It might be expecting too much of a professional baseball player to consider it a “smaller matter” when the replay showed that this was clearly ball four.

But there is an unofficial feature of umpiring that we call “rectification.” To use an example, there was a case where Bautista’s former Pirate teammate, Jason Bay, was wrongly called “safe” at second base. A replay showed him to be out, and the umpires knew it.

A few plays later, Bay tagged at third base, heading for home after a fly ball was caught. Another umpire called him out for leaving the base before the fly was caught. A replay showed this not to be the case.

By one measure, Bay had been wrongly deprived of a run. By another measure, the umpires were ” rectifying” their original error to prevent Bay from scoring a run, because he should not have had the opportunity in the first place.

If the umpire felt his original “strike” call was wrong, he might have called subsequent strike a ball. On the other hand, having been challenged once, he may have decided to stick to Bautista a second time.

And it’s possible that the second call was an honest judgment. Our views where those of the camera, from the pitcher’s side. But a home plate umpire has to “set up,” much like a catcher, with that catcher in the way.

Almost invariably, the umpire will lean to either the inside (in this case) or outside of the plate, making it harder to call pitches accurately on the other side.

After Bautista was ejected, his manager, Cito Gaston got into the act. Perhaps baseball ought to move toward a manager challenger system as in football, where managers can challenge a ruling based on a reply, and a charged for the resulting time out if it is sustained. (Baseball managers could be charged an out.) Here, Bautista might have been upheld instead.

Or perhaps baseball will stick to 20th-century style justice that relies entirely on human rulings, even when wrong, and even when replays say otherwise, even if it affects a record, like an otherwise perfect game.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates did win the season series against the Chicago Cubs, but the final series, in Wrigley Field, left a bad taste in the mouth, losing two out of three on the road.

Actually, the Chicago Cubs are one of two teams that the Bucs have beaten (5-4) on the road this season. The other one is the Colorado Rockies (2-1). (Although they barely managed a 2-2 tie in PNC Park.)

A sorry road record is the main reason Pittsburgh’s overall record is the worst in the majors. Their home record is better than that of the Chicago Cubs, the Cleveland Indians, and the Baltimore Orioles.

The Pirates are 14-53 on the road with 14 more games to go. That winning percentage is barely above .200. The team that they are now competing for in the “race to the bottom” in road games is the 1962 New York Mets, the all-time worst team who won all of 17 games away from home.

It didn’t get off to such a bad start. The first two months, the Bucs won five road games in April and four in May.

The April wins featured two road game victories against the Milwaukee Brewers, which represented a (relative) high for the Pirates. They also included one win each against three western division teams away from home. In May, Bucs feasted on the Cubs and won one each on the road from the now-contending Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies.

But then the Pirates had a horrible June, 6-26 overall, which meant only two road wins (against the Cubs). Four out of five American League opponents swept the Bucs 3-0 during Interleague Play, with the Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, and Oakland As doing so in their home parks.

Since June 30th, the Pirates have won only the two games against the Rockies, and one against the Cubs, outside of PNC Park.

They’ve been blanked on the road by the division leading San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves, as well as the relatively weak Washington Nationals, and the Houston Astros in their own division. (We haven’t closed the books on the road seasons against the St. Louis Cardinals, Florida Marlins, or New York Mets.)

The weakness on the road is a testament to the inexperience of the team, among the youngest in the majors. The home record (and other factors such as the dominance of the Cubs) suggests the team’s raw talent is NOT league worst. But it is rookies who will play the worst on the road relative to their overall ability.

Pirates that fall into this category are heralded call ups like Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, and Jose Tabata. Andy McCutchen and Garett Jones are barely out of this category. Among everyday position players, only Ronny Cedeno, Ryan Doumit, and Lastings Milledge can be considered even close to “veteran.”

This team is better than the 1962 Mets. But it seems to play like them away from home because they are relatively new players for which all the veterans have been traded.

Some call it “trading up.” Others call it rebuilding. Overall, the Pirates have a cyclically weak team on the field—even for them—one headed for a 100-110 loss season. Let’s hope that 2010 represents the low point of their record.

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Jose Bautista is not what most people would consider a slugger, certainly not most fans of his former team the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Yet he has emerged with a league-leading 42 home runs so far in 2008, after working on his swing last year with Toronto hitting coach, Dwayne Murphy.

This unexpected power has led to allegations that Bautista has done what Roger Clemens, or possibly even A-Rod has done in using controlled substances. Despite the improbability of his breakout, I don’t believe these charges.

That’s because Batista’s recent success doesn’t seem to be about power: He is probably not hitting harder than before. Instead, he is hitting “smarter.”

Bautista has one of the “fastest” swings in the majors, which is to say that he lifts, rather than merely “slugs” the ball. Thus, he uses a bat like a lever, not a club.

It was an ancient scientist, Archimedes, who said, “give me a lever and a place to stand on, and I can move the earth.”

That’s why he has one of the highest “conversion” ratios of home runs to fly balls in the majors. FanGraphs rates only Joey Votto, Carlos Pena, and Adam Dunn better in this regard.

Garden variety sluggers (A-Rod perhaps), approach the ball with what might be characterized as a lateral, or “overhand” swing. As a result, they tend to hit a lot of line drives, which often go for extra base hits.

If they hit the ball lower than normal (with an upward trajectory), it might clear the wall for a home run. If the ball is hit higher than normal, it might be a hard grounder.

On the other hand, many Pittsburghers considered Bautista’s batting (and the rest of his play), downright amateurish. That’s because it is similar to what many will see in Little League, with “underhand” hitting, much as underhand pitching is a staple of that level of play.

That’s because Bautista doesn’t hit baseballs laterally, which requires power. Meaning that he hits relatively few line drives or grounders. Instead, he pops them up.

If the near side of the baseball can be likened to a clock, Bautista might be hitting it at “five o’clock,” instead of two, three or four o’clock, like the more conventional sluggers.

This leads to one of the highest ratio of fly balls to total contact (54%) around. Bautista’s batting average is low because a large percentage of his contacted balls are caught.

But most of the ones aren’t going for extra bases. Combine that with a top five home run to fly ball ratio and the product of the two is the league-leading home run total.

Bautista’s approach reminds me of the story of how David, a Biblical teenage warrior beat a giant named Goliath (in an “exhibition” match).

After rejecting an offer from the King of the King’s personal sword and body armor (the best of conventional weaponry), David won the battle with a “light weapon” (a slingshot) that he knew how to wield better than anyone else.

Bautista has hit 50 home runs in the “season” that began September 1, 2009 and ended yesterday. (I am stopping the clock a day early to compensate for the fact that last year’s season lasted a day longer than his year’s.)

During this time, he has shown the ability to hit 8-12 home runs every other month. If he averages eight home runs in his three best months, plus some random long balls in “off” months, he could knock somewhere over 30 balls out of the park next year.

If he averages 10 home runs in his three best months, the season total could be in the low 40s. And if the average is 12 for the three best months, the total could even approximate 50. In any event, he’s not going back to 15 home runs a year  (or 20 if annualized over a full season).

“Submarine” (underhand) pitchers are a rarity in Major League Baseball. But when they exist, they are often quite effective because they have an unusual style that works for them, and is different from what most hitters are used to (Think Kent Tekulve, Chad Bradford or Mike Myers).

There will probably be only a few of them, but there is room for “submarine” batters like Jose Bautista as well.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates won only five games in the season series against Milwaukee in 2010. That’s the same as in 2009, and either result is better than the sole win in 2008.

But this year, the Pirates showed signs of building a base for better success against the Brewers in the future.

In his debut performance in August 2008, an otherwise mediocre pitcher named Jeff Karstens scored a breakthrough win against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Two years later, the Pirates went on to dominate the Cubs 9-3 so far in their season series (9-6 if the Bucs lose all three games of the upcoming final series).

The same Jeff Karstens managed a breakthrough win against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park earlier this year, ending their streak of 22 home wins going back to 2007. Maybe this is a sign that the Pirates will win the season series in 2011 or 2012.

Yes, the Pirates won only five games against the Brewers this year. But five of the losses were close (by one or two runs, including an extra-inning game Saturday night that was “tied” at the end of nine).

Next year is the low-budget Brewers’ last year of club control of Prince Fielder (he may be traded mid-year if Milwaukee decides not to keep him). This follows their loss of Ben Sheets and (“rented” pitcher) CC Sabathia in 2008, a year in which both pitchers contributed to the team’s dominance over Pittsburgh.

On the other hand, the Pirates introduced several new faces to the lineup this year in Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, and Neil Walker, among others. These are players that might win the close games for the Bucs next year when they become more seasoned.

Earlier this year, it’s true that Milwaukee was responsible for some of Pittsburgh’s most resounding losses, 20-0 and 17-3. But a team can win (or lose) only one game at a time. The combined 37-3 deficit affected only two games.

Elsewhere in the division, the Pirates recently showed signs of life against the St. Louis Cardinals by winning two out of three (although they’re still 3-6 for the season). And they have a respectable 5-7 tally so far against the division-leading Cincinnati Reds, based on a sweep early in the season.

It’s the otherwise weak Houston Astros that have given the Bucs the most trouble in 2010 (10-2). But there was a reversal of a similarly lopsided 2006 season series in Pittsburgh’s favor in 2007.

The Pirates can climb out of the cellar by beating one team at a time. For now, they still trail the fifth-ranked Cubs overall.

But they figure to add one or more “scalps” next year. If the Bucs can beat most teams in their division, they will ipso facto pull themselves out of last place. If they can start beating all the teams in their division, they might even be contenders, if only in the National League Central.

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Sometimes Jose Bautista drives in runs by hitting home runs. (He has 95 RBIs, third in the American League, going into today’s games, and is tops in four-baggers.) At other times, he drives in runs–well, by running.

That was the case last night, in the bottom of the fourth, with two out and two on to Bautista against the New York Yankees. By capturing first base, he had loaded the bases for Vernon Wells, described by the Yankees’ commentator as “dangerous.”

Wells hit a ground ball to just behind second base. Nothing special apparently. Aaron Hill crossed the plate from third, but under a different set of circumstances, that wouldn’t count. The fielder scooped up the ball, paused for a split second, and flipped the ball to Robinson Cano on second.

But Bautista was in there, with his leg on the bag as Cano caught the ball, tagging the other side of the base. The umpire waved his hands laterally to signal NO third out, meaning that Hill’s arrival at home counted for a run.

Although Wells got the RBI, the credit for the “action” really belonged to Bautista. This was the fifth score, a valuable insurance run against the three that the Yankees would score.

How he got on first was trademark Bautista. He walked, the thing he does best, placing second in the American League, just two bases on balls behind the Oakland A’s Daric Barton, 78 to 80. (But Barton has only five home run’s to Bautista’s 40, meaning that if you add walks to home runs, the Blue Jay is way ahead, 118 to 85.).

This plate appearance cost starter Phil Hughes six pitches (the four balls plus two strikes), bringing the total to 100, in less than four innings. Bautista drew an earlier walk in the third inning, then scored on a Vernon Wells’ home run.

But of course, Bautista’s great claim to fame is the breakout in his home run hitting. This started last September, when he hit eight long balls in a month, or more than half his total for 2009. Since then, he has hit eight to 12 home runs every other month, bringing about his league leadership.

Bautista came to the Blue Jays late in 2008 from the Pittsburgh Pirates for backup catcher Robinzon Diaz, when the Bucs seemed to be rebuilding their team around catchers. The Pirates also got backup catcher Jason Jaramillo for (catcher) Ronnie Paulino, a genuinely lazy player who, unlike Bautista, did NOT try to beat out throws.

Paulino was also recently suspended for using prohibited substances, a charge that I do NOT believe is true of Bautista. Who has come under scrutiny for the suddenness of his apparent power.

I will discuss this more in a later piece, but I believe that his recent (and largely sustainable) home-run hitting skill is due to changing his approach to the game. Put another way, I believe that he is hitting “smarter” rather than “harder,” like most sluggers would.

But as a walker, runner, slugger, RBI driver, and leading the league in most offensive categories, Bautista is a multifaceted offensive player that his former team, the Pirates never understood. And that’s despite a batting average that’s a bit on the low side.

Kudos to Toronto for bringing out the best in him.

.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates spent nearly $9 million to draft two high school pitchers, Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie. Throw in $2.6 million for 16-year old Mexican Luis Heredia, and the total tops $11 million.

Less than half of first round draft choices become established players (playing more than a few games) in the majors. For long shots like high school or teenage pitchers, the chances may be as little as one in three.

All three are “power arms,” which mean that they have the greatest chance to dominate, but also to “crash and burn” if they turn out not to have the requisite endurance.

On the other hand, if even one of the three turns out to be the next “Ben Sheets,” the $11 million investment will have been worth it. During his period of club control, Sheets was worth about $60 million more to Milwaukee than he was paid, according to FanGraphs.

Still, the odds are longer than yours truly, for one, would like. Only Paul Maholm, of the Pirates’ first round pitching choices in the past decade has clearly worked out, and he would be only a second or more like third starter on another team.

Bryan Bullington was a pitcher drafted in the first round. Ditto for John van Benschoten (who, however, was more like a “Bryce Harper” who’s probably a better bet as a position player). So, too, were Brad Lincoln and Dan Moskos.

Even pitchers drafted in the first round by others and acquired in trade often fit this sorry mold. These include busted reliever Craig Hansen, and capable but Tommy John-plagued Bryan Morris. Tim Alderson has also been a disappointment, having been demoted this year.

If anything, acquired first-round pitchers are an even greater risk than those taken via draft. Like used cars of very recent vintage, they might not have been released by their former owners without a good reason.

On the other hand, the Pirates’ best recent first-round draft choices have been of position players; Neil Walker in 2004, Andrew McCutchen in 2005, and Pedro Alvarez in 2008 (good thing the Tampa Bay Rays opted for Tim Beckham in that year).

Meanwhile, the Pirates acquired pitchers Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, and Dan McCutchen in trade for outfielder Xavier Nady (attributing Jose Tabata to reliever Damasco Marte).

The trade of outfielder Nate McLouth brought Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke (as well as a potential replacement in Gorkys Hernandez), and it’s still possible that at least one of the two pitchers will work out. And the Bucs recently received James McDonald for reliever Octavio Dotel.

With the exception of McCutchen and Locke, these were advanced prospects with a bit of Major League playing time, and therefore were easier for Pittsburgh to evaluate than draft choices.

Ohlendorf appears to be a genuinely good pitcher that the Yankees may regret trading away. Karstens and McCutchen are hurlers who didn’t quite meet Yankee standards, but may still be reasonably good Pirates.

The Bucs need good pitching to succeed. But it’s the above-mentioned position players that now hold the keys to the Pirates’ future success. And trading position players for pitchers seems like the sure way to get there.

That seems like a better idea than say, taking reliever Daniel Moskos ahead of either of the fielders named Matt (Wieters or LaPorta) in the 2007 draft.

Right now, no one would suggest trading Andrew McCutchen or Pedro Alvarez for  a pitcher of the caliber of Tim Lincecum (taken after Brad Lincoln in 2006) for a pennant race.

But the 1971 Pirates did just that with the trade of center fielder Mattie Alou for pitcher Nelson Briles, and won the World Series. That group of Bucs had fielders to spare, with Al Oliver coming up in center field.

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