Kuzul

Sometimes the best roster moves are cutting the ones that DON’T belong on the roster. Such a move was the dumping of former Pirates’ catcher Ronnie Paulino.

Paulino was just suspended for 50 games for substance abuse. While he appears to be contrite about the matter, and perhaps honestly didn’t believe that his weight-loss drug was not banned, he is now an embarrassment to his team.

Fortunately, that team will no longer be the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Paulino has had a checkered record as a Pirate, and as a baseball player. He started out quite well, for a part season in 2006, when he was a genuinely above-average, though not a star player.

He regressed in 2007, however, to below average, besides showing a notable lack of energy on the field.

By 2008, when he had to “platoon” for the catcher’s spot behind Ryan Doumit, he was basically useless.

At the end of the year, he was traded to the Phillies for backup catcher, Jason Jaramillo, in a deal that the Pirates did not (then) get the worst of.

Hope springs eternal, however, and the Florida Marlins traded FOR Paulino in 2009. He served them relatively well in that year. (In this regard, he was like a former Pirates pitcher, Ollie Perez, who had sporadic good years in 2004, then 2007.)

He reverted to form in 2010, with a below-average contribution for the year to date, before earning the suspension. This will hurt the Marlins for the balance of the year (while they are non-contenders) and into the next.

In 2008, the Pirates traded away Jason Bay in a three-team deal that sent Bay to the Boston Red Sox, Manny Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and four players of varying quality to the Bucs.

Although Boston got the best of that deal, the biggest loser was the Dodgers, because of the 50-game suspension of Manny Ramirez. Pittsburgh at least dodged clear of that one.

It’s not clear that Paulino (unlike e.g. Roger Clemens) sought to break the rules. What is clear, however, was that he didn’t “have it.” Which is why the Pirates (rightly) dumped him. Which may be why he became a substance abuser in spite of himself.

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The Seattle Mariners’ Felix Hernandez is a legitimate first starter.  Doug Fister is a second starter type, who is third in the rotation because Jason Vargas is in between. Coming into this year, Seattle had also “imported” two first-starter types in Cliff Lee and Ian Snell.

With that kind of a rotation, Seattle ought to have had a shot at the postseason. No such luck, which is why Lee was re-traded to the Texas Rangers early in July.

Because of injuries, Lee didn’t start until May 5.  Meaning that his “season” (to the time of trade) was a third over by the time he got started. And this was after Seattle had lost crucial games in April and early May to division rivals Oakland A’s and the Texas Rangers.

Ian Snell WAS a first starter. And only for the Pittsburgh Pirates. As far back as 2007. This year, he had a good six-inning, one run first start, and then went downhill from there.

After that, he never pitched more than 5.1 innings, and either gave up three or more runs, or pitched too few innings to count (sometimes in relief), or both. This led to an 0-5 record in decisions, and a record of 1-9 in games started by him. Small wonder Seattle demoted him to AAA, as did Pittsburgh last year.

Between Lee’s absence in the first month, and Snell’s dismissal after mid-June, the Mariners have had to fill the gap with Ryan Rowland-Smith. Given his 1-10 record in decisions, (4-18 counting no decisions), that was the other closest thing to having a sure loser every fifth day. That is, until they pulled Luke French out of the bullpen to (better) fill his shoes.

The other three starters haven’t done so well, either, but that’s for reasons not relating to pitching. In a word, it’s mostly not their fault.

Vargas has the best record, in large part because he’s had halfway decent run support, at least in two-run starts. His 9-5 record is the only one for the Mariners that is what you might expect, given his 3.15 ERA.

Of Hernandez’s nine losses, three were poor starts that he deserved to lose; three were six inning, three-run efforts that should have given the team a 50-50 shot at victory (instead of being losses); and three were long-inning, two run efforts that he should have won, but lost, because the Mariners didn’t score enough runs.That’s why he’s only 8-9.

Despite his having the worst ERA of remaining “Big Three,” Fister hasn’t won a game in which he gave up more than one run, because of inadequate run support. Small wonder he is 4-8.

So Seattle’s real troubles are exemplified by the other former Pirate, shortstop Jack Wilson.

Wilson was a light hitter that even Pittsburgh was willing to give up last year—for the chance at another “draw.” But Wilson’s offense and defense has declined from 2009, meaning that the Pirates did not lose anything by accepting the more durable arbitration-year Ronny Cedeno in trade for him, and saved a bit a salary.

Jeff Clements, whom they also received, represented a ”free roll,” although a busted one, for them.

Even so, Wilson, with his slash line of .249/.282/.316, is now a middling hitter on the Mariners. That, unfortunately says something about the rest of the lineup.

Apart from Ichiro Suzuki, batters Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Lopez, and Chone Figgins are all shadows of their former selves. Like Wilson, they are hovering around the .250 range in batting average, and the .237 team average is dead last in the majors. Nor are they doing better by other metrics.

The Seattle Mariners are now 30th in most offensive categories, and overall. In so doing, they have taken this dubious distinction away—from the Pittsburgh Pirates.

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We know that James McDonald can pitch six blank frames on a good night. We also know that he has at least moderate durability, lasting five innings or so while giving up four runs on less stellar occasions.

Not bad for a rookie. On paper, at least, he is beginning to look a bit like Brad Lincoln.

Lincoln had one very strong outing of seven innings of shutout ball in a 2-0 decision. He’s also had a number of mediocre five and six inning starts, with only some of the latter qualifying as quality starts.

But there is a tie breaker that appears to work in McDonald’s favor, at least for now: strength of schedule.

McDonald has started against three NL West division teams: the San Diego Padres (last night), the Colorado Rockies (several days ago), and the San Francisco Giants (as a Dodger).

Assuming he stays with the Pirates, he won’t get a chance to go against his former Dodger teammates for the rest of the season or face the Diamondbacks.

McDonald’s two weaker starts came against the top two NL West division contenders. It goes back to the fact that the Pirates are not yet competitive against contenders. But that’s a side issue for now, as long as they beat other, weaker teams.

His shutout came against a pretty good (better than .500) Colorado Rockies team. That suggests he might be good for quality starts (not necessarily zero-run games) against non-contenders.

On the other hand, Lincoln’s strongest showing came against the Chicago Cubs, the one outfit the Pirates have feasted on—even with the likes of Charlie Morton and Brian Burres on the hill.

No kudos here.

Lincoln has posted weak showings against teams like the Washington Nationals, the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Houston Astros, whom the Pirates will HAVE to beat if they are to amount to anything.

No help for the club there.

For now, at least, James McDonald looks like a better bet for fifth starter than Brad Lincoln. Better than Dan McCutchen. Probably better than Charlie Morton or Kevin Hart.

And it goes back to the fact that “another Brad Lincoln,” or better, (plus a fielding prospect) will have been a great return in a trade for two months of a closer named Octavio Dotel.

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Dan McCutchen throws hard. Maybe too hard. That could be why he can’t seem to last long enough in games to be a viable starter.

McCutchen reminds me a little of a Baltimore Orioles kid from a few years back named Adam Loewen. That 6’5” lefty was a hard thrower who struck out nearly one batter an inning, and was basically unhittable for up to four innings. But by no later than the fifth, he would weaken, because he was tired. Beyond that, fughedaboutit.

No sixth or seventh inning for him. Whether or not he would be credited with a win (on his better outings) depended entirely on whether he could make it through that fifth inning without too much damage.

Loewen was eventually forced off the mound because of injuries (and is trying to become a position player). He really should not have been a starter, despite his raw talent, because his natural calling was as a long reliever.

McCutchen has exhibited the same pattern. In relief against the Colorado Rockies on Sunday, he pitched 4.1 shutout innings, which was basically Loewen’s ceiling (without allowing a run). It’s also the best McCutchen has done in the majors, where he has not been able to replicate his minor league record of striking out seven batters every nine innings.

Other than that, McCutchen may pitch one scoreless inning or so, but can’t seem to pitch two or more frames without giving up at least one run. That spells “reliever” to me.

The upside is that having been trained as a starter, he has more endurance than the average reliever, which is to say that he is a natural long reliever, or “innings eater.” If he can pitch three innings while yielding only one run, that is as much as can be ordinarily expected.

The problem was apparent even in the minors, McCutchen (and Loewen) threw hard, because of a lack of finesse. That’s good enough for a short stretch, but genuinely good pitchers don’t go for whole games just throwing fastballs.

They confuse batters by mixing up their pitches, meaning that they can kick back and relax some of the time, pacing themselves for most of nine innings. Pitchers like McCutchen and Loewen can’t seem to do that. They live or die mainly by velocity.

Once that velocity is gone (by midgame), they don’t have much to fall back on. Hence they should be pitching for short stretches (typically 1-3 innings), not the better part of whole games. And, of course, not every day.

The Orioles burned up a talented kid (who went 8-8 for them with limited run support over three years) because they were stuck for starting pitching. The Pirates, to their credit, now have a large number of pitchers on the bench and in the minors.

They see their priority, rightly, as making intelligent use of the hurlers (and other talent) that they have. They seem to understand that an overly hard thrower like McCutchen belongs in the bullpen, not in the rotation. And maybe that’s why Pittsburgh isn’t the worst team in the majors—Baltimore is.

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James McDonald had a brilliant outing with six innings of shutout ball in his first appearance with the Pittsburgh Pirates. This caused one reader of my previous piece to fear that it might be a fluke. “I wouldn’t get my hopes up yet,” he wrote resignedly.

And his remark carried a point: Just because McDonald put up a Cy Young-caliber showing in his debut outing doesn’t mean that he will be the next Cy Young candidate.

But it’s not devoid of meaning, either, because the Pirates have already gotten more than they could reasonably expect.

The remainder of the “resignation” was more topical: “Does anyone remember Karstens?” (who did the same in his Pirates debut). He didn’t exactly live up to his early billing, but he wasn’t a bust, either.

Karstens does pitch that well–occasionally–which is to say that he has the “stuff.” He just doesn’t seem to have the endurance to maintain that kind of performance over a whole season of 30 or so starts. This lack of endurance took him to the back of the Pirates’ rotation, and at times to the bullpen.

McDonald strikes me as a harder thrower than Karstens, and a tougher prospect all around. If so, he might be better than Karstens, say middle of rotation (or better).  A look at his (admittedly brief) record shows why this might be so.

Here’s what we do know: that he can pitch for six innings (or more) at a time while giving up no (or few) runs, at least against a middling team like the Colorado Rockies. That’s his ceiling so far.

We don’t even know that about Dan McCutchen, who hasn’t done this yet. We barely know this about Brad Lincoln, who did pitch one seven inning shutout, but a bunch of other mediocre (or worse) starts, including an unimpressive debut.

As such, McDonald is now a better candidate for “fifth starter” than Lincoln or McCutchen, and at least as good as Karstens was.

McDonald pitched one other start, of five innings, four runs, for the Los Angeles Dodgers, suggesting that (unlike Karstens) he has reasonable durability, even if he isn’t always on the mark. Taking the average of his two outings might represent his base.

If that’s the case, he might during the course of the next season produce 15 quality starts, of six innings, three or fewer runs (most of them not shutouts), and 15 lesser starts. That might mean that his current ERA of 4.61 could be representative of his current ability (mid-rotation).

If he could improve over time to 20 quality starts (out of 30), that would put him in the category of an above average pitcher, say Zach Duke in his best full year (2009), or Paul Maholm in 2008, which would mean second starter caliber, on a team other than the Pirates.

Here’s why it’s so hard to make the Cy Young: In order to do so, a pitcher must have ten or so great starts during a season, like Thursday night, not just two or three, like Jeff Karstens or other Pirates’ pitchers.

There must be ten or more starts of lesser but still quality caliber, some of which go for seven or eight, rather than six, innings. (If a pitcher pitches a six-inning three run quality start, then gives up a fourth run in the seventh, the quality start is cancelled.)

With exception of the occasional bad game, the remaining starts would be just shy of “quality,” say two or three runs in five innings, or four runs in six or seven.

That gets one to the level of an also-ran named Chien Ming Wang (in his best years in 2006 and 2007). A Roy Halladay will do better most nights; a seven inning two run start is “below average” for him.

A team doesn’t normally get this much starter, or any starter for that matter, by trading a 36-year old reliever, even a closer. “Average expectations” in the recent deal (for McDonald and Andrew Lambo) might be one middle inning (worst caliber) reliever or one utility position player.

But in 2002, the Cleveland Indians traded Bartolo Colon, an admitted ace, for Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore (attributing the other two players received to Tim Drew).

In the unlikely event that James McDonald and Andrew Lambo turn out to be “Cliff Lee” and “Grady Sizemore,” trading Dotel for them would have been the deal of the decade, and possibly enough to propel the Pirates to greatness.

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It’s a bit early to tell, but an erstwhile reliever named James McDonald appears to be credible in his new role as (at least) a back-end starter. He pitched six scoreless innings with four strikeouts against the Colorado Rockies, good for a quality start.

He won’t always be this good. But he won’t have to be because last night he was very, very good.

Granted, the Colorado Rockies aren’t exactly the National League’s best team, at least not this year. But, Colorado is a team that has given the Pirates trouble in the past, and one that the Bucs will have to beat if they are going to amount to anything.

McDonald got the job done last night, and in a big way. That is to say, most pitchers don’t do anywhere near this well against the Rockies, or even against the Pirates. The result was a 5-1 victory with the sole run given up in the eighth inning by Sean Gallagher.

The Pirates got McDonald by trading closer Octavio Dotel for the supposedly inferior reliever whom they’re trying return to the starter role (plus outfield prospect Andrew Lambo). If they succeed, the Pirates will have come out way ahead on the deal, regardless of what Lambo does or doesn’t do.

The reason this could happen is because closers are generally overvalued in the baseball marketplace. During his tenure as a reliever with the Pirates, Dotel was middling at best. His 4.28 ERA was worse than that of Evan Meek, Javier Lopez, Joel Hanrahan, and DJ Carrasco.

But Dotel had the advantage of being a “closer,” which is to say that he had the term “save” attached to his name. He was credited 21 of them in a little more than half a season, versus two for all other Pirate relievers thus far. That’s something most managements will trade for—even to the point of giving up a potential starter.

Starters are more valuable than relievers for one reason—they pitch more innings during a game, and even over a whole season.Therefore the ERAs of a starter and reliever aren’t really comparable. The fact that a reliever is a closer doesn’t change this fact.

Almost anyone in the Major Leagues can pitch well for one, maybe two, innings at a time. What separates the men from the boys is how well a starter holds up during a sixth and seventh inning of a game (and sometimes beyond), when he is getting tired and most likely to give up runs.

It’s what I call a “last inning” problem that leads to a lot of runs being given up in those innings. (The worst relievers’ “last inning” problem starts from the moment they take the ball.)

A “save” situation is one where a team hands the ball to a closer and tells him, “We’re handing you a lead, just don’t blow it.” Usually he doesn’t, and the team wins. Of course, if a closer does lose the lead, it’s called a “blown save.”

Paradoxically, a closer can sometimes “win” a game in this way. He blows another pitcher’s lead in the top of the ninth, his teammates regain it in the bottom of the inning with a walkoff, and the closer is the pitcher of record. He is awarded the win even though he did more to lose the game than to win it.

The recent trade is reminiscent of the 2008 exchange of reliever Damasco Marte for starter Ross Ohlendorf (in effect). With the other three players (Jeff Karstens, Dan McCutchen, and Jose Tabata) together easily worth Xavier Nady, the Bucs made out very well in that deal.

The Pirates appear to have made a science of signing, trading for, and “Rule 5-ing” potentially good relievers. When they pan out, they are then re-traded for other players the Pittsburghers need. It’s one of the few things that they seem to do well.

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In an earlier post, I pointed out that the Pittsburgh Pirates were showing signs of life against the three weaker opponents of the National League Central. This was because the Pirates could actually win, in some cases, and came within a run or so in other instances, suggesting that a stronger version of the team could win such games outright.

But this past week shows why the Pirates won’t be contenders anytime soon. They were swept in a three-game series against the former division-leading Cardinals in St. Louis, then lost two of three against the now-leading Cincinnati Reds at home.

What’s worse, the win, (and one of the losses against St. Louis) was by only one run, while the remaining four losses were decisive (by four runs or more).

After having started the season 3-0 against Cincinnati, the Pirates have gone all of 2-7 against the Reds since then. Although the opening series makes the Bucs a very competitive 5-7 for the season, that took place before Cincinnati had found its stride.

There was no such opening series against the Cardinals, and the Bucs are 1-5 against them so far, with the one win coming at home. In fact, it is the Cardinals’ stronger showing against the Pirates that has kept them in competition with the Reds in the division.

And the inability of the Pirates to win even one game recently against San Diego at PETCO Park demonstrates they wouldn’t be very competitive even if they made it to the playoffs by some miracle. The Bucs have done better against weaker NL West teams.

The Pirates aren’t as overmatched elsewhere in the rest of the NL Central division.

Chicago is not only aging, but is the one team in the NL Central the Pirates can actually beat. Even otherwise weak Buc pitchers like Charlie Morton, Jeff Karstens, and Brian Burres can quash this team’s hitting.

Pittsburgh lost the first six games against Houston in Minute Maid Park (by mostly narrow margins), but then won two of three at home by very large margins. Houston is a weak team, and just got weaker with the trades of a bunch of their best players for prospects, doing what the Pirates did a year or two ago, and what they should have done earlier.

A “reversal of fortune” in 2007 over 2006 (from Astro dominance to Pirate dominance) following the retirement of some of the Astros’ better players may foreshadow what happens here next year.

Milwaukee is a stronger version of Houston, but should suffer at the end of 2011 with the loss of Prince Fielder, after having already lost Ben Sheets.

The Pirates lost their first four games to the Brewers, but after that have been a respectable 5-6 against this team, including having broken a string of more than 20 consecutive defeats at Miller Park.

The Pirates finally appear poised to make progress against some National League Central teams. But this recovery is embryonic and uneven, suggesting that the Bucs will have trouble holding their own, even in this weak division.

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The Pirates’ vaunted trading desk was busy at the trade deadline, as usual. The nature of the trading was very different from last year. The Pirates’ core will likely benefit, rather than suffer, from the deals.

They were not deals of core Pirates, but rather peripheral players. The Pirates exercised more discipline, and made better trades, instead of just engaging in a giveaway motivated by salary dump considerations. They did a much better job of making “stealth” trades that caught people by surprise instead of telegraphing their intentions.

Bobby Crosby, Ryan Church, DJ Carrasco, Octavio Dotel, and Javier Lopez were all signed in the offseason. As such, they were “rented” players to begin with.

The first three were traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks for catcher Chris Snyder (plus prospect Pedro Ciriaco). For once, the Pirates were trading quantity for quality (relatively speaking).

Snyder gives the team an alternative to Doumit. He represents a clear improvement defensively, if not offensively. Doumit can play elsewhere, meaning that the Pirates can have “one and a half” catchers, plus fractions of a position player between them.

The second trade, of Dotel for James McDonald and a fielding prospect (Andrew Lambo), is perhaps the most intriguing of all. An established closer was traded for a younger, probably longer-serving advanced prospect (one with some major league playing time) on relief.

He joins two other players, Dan McCutchen and Sean Gallagher, in a hybrid role, of relievers who are potential starters. McCutchen, Gallagher and McDonald came in three separate deals. If just ONE of them works out as a starter, one as a reliever, and one as a bust (and we don’t yet know which is which), the moves would have been good ones.

The trade of Javier Lopez for an inferior pitcher (Joe Martinez) plus a fielding prospect (John Bowker), resembles last year’s trade of starter Tom Gorzelanny for an inferior one (Kevin Hart) plus a fielding prospect (Josh Harrison). But this is much a better deal, or at least gamble, than the Gorzelanny trade. We’re giving up only two months of a reliever (rather than two years of a starter) to get a lottery ticket in the form of the fielding prospect.

All in all, the Pirates’ trading looks better than last year’s. Maybe they’ve learned something since then. Or maybe they just ran out of pieces to trade.

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All right, the Pittsburgh Pirates CAN win on the road.

At least they did so against the Colorado Rockies. Two out of three, anyway. In quite good fashion I might add, especially considering the first-inning injury to Ross Ohlendorf on Wednesday that required more than eight innings of bullpen work.

The Pirates have been on a hot streak at the plate since the All-Star break, at least relative to themselves. Enough to get out of a 30-team cellar for offense, anyway. The Rockies, on the other hand, have been on a cold streak, losing eight of their previous nine.

Sometimes it is the luck of the draw, but the Pirates did take advantage of things. If only they could do so well in every road series.

The Pirates were not nearly as good earlier against the San Diego Padres, going 0-3 at PETCO Park. But the Padres, perhaps surprisingly, have the best record in the National League, meaning that they are now too high a hurdle for the Bucs to beat—at least on the road.

Last year, the Pirates actually won two out of three road games against San Diego—in April, at a time when the Bucs were actually 11-7. But San Diego has been a powerhouse team since about the middle of last year, and took back three out of four from the Pirates at PNC Park in the fall.

The Pirates’ results against the other Western division teams on the road are intermediate; 1-3 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, 1-2 against the San Francisco Giants, and 1-2 against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Five of their 13 “Away” wins (just under 40%), have come against Western division teams. That compares to the fact that they’ll play only 16 out of 81 (less than 20%) such games.

Still, with a young team you will take any reason for optimism you can get.

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At least the Pirates’ starter gave up fewer runs than the other guy. That was enough for an 11-9 victory over the Brewers last night.

Brad Lincoln gave up seven runs in 2.1 innings. That ordinarily means “loss,” but that wasn’t the case here.

That’s because Milwaukee’s Dave Bush gave up 10 runs in four innings. Nine of those came in the first inning, the first time in 117 years that the Bucs scored that many runs at home in the opening frame.

After that, it was a battle of the bullpens. The Brewers won this portion of the game, 2-1. That was enough to narrow, but not erase, the Pirates’ 10-7 lead, based on starters’ performances.

Although it’s a bit early to tell for sure, Brad Lincoln has been a bit of a disappointment so far. His debut game featured an acceptable, but by no means stellar, five runs in six innings.

Since then, he has been mostly uneven, going six or more innings in all but two games, but giving up many runs in the process, thereby posting a weak 6.29 ERA to date.

The Pirates have an abundance of “fifth” (and sixth) starter caliber pitchers. Besides Lincoln, there’s Dan McCutchen, Brian Burres, Charlie Morton, and Kevin Hart. Not to mention Jeff Karstens, who is at least a legitimate fifth starter.

Which is why trading Tom Gorzelanny (a potential first starter) for one of them (Hart) plus a second base prospect (Josh Harrison) last year, wasn’t such a good idea. The Bucs have more than enough quantity, and not enough quality.

Pittsburgh appears to be turning the corner, after a fashion, against the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that formerly dominated them. Last night showed that the Bucs can win at home, albeit in the worst way, against this team.

And earlier this year, the Pirates finally took two out of three in Miller Park, after having lost over twenty straight games on the other team’s home turf.

The most recent away series went 3-0 Milwaukee, all by one run. Meaning that a slightly stronger team could have WON three games.

If the Pirates have a chance to escape the cellar this year (or more likely, next), it’s because there are at least three other good candidates in the National League Central for this unenviable role.

One of them is the Milwaukee Brewers. Others include the Chicago Cubs (against whom the Bucs are 9-3 so far), and the Houston Astros, against whom the home team recently held its own, winning a series 2-1 in PNC Park.

The Pirates are a relatively young team, which is to say that they will likely get better over the next few years, before the prospect of losing their best players to free agency. The Brewers stand to lose Prince Fielder, and the other teams have similar issues.

By 2012, Pittsburgh may therefore be “in contention” for for the fourth, or even third place in the National League Central.

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