Kuzul

That is, as opposed to a month or two later. I’m talking about people like Neil Walker, Brad Lincoln, Pedro Alvarez, and Jose Tabata.

This may seem like a facetious question, but it is not. Timing is often important in baseball and in real life. In this case, for two reasons.

The first has to do with things like arbitration eligibility and free agent status. As things stand, the above-mentioned rookies will be arb eligible in 2013, and free agents in 2016 (Unless we send them back down to the minors to deprive them of time in the majors,which is an even worse option).

If we had called them up after the half way point of the season (as we did with people like Zach Duke and Paul Maholm in 2005), the period of club control would have extended another year.

It’s true that people like Andy LaRoche, Jeff Clement, Akinori Iwamoto, and possibly even Lastings Milledge were no better than stopgaps until better players came along. They were basically in a “use them or lose them” situation. But for the reason mentioned above, they should probably have been used at least until the All-Star game. We’re paying them, anyway.

The other reason has to do with the fact that the Pirates were headed for a bad year anyway, which is to say that there was no reason to try to make it better at the expense of future considerations like those discussed above. And the one below.

In the corporate world. companies will often “kitchen sink” their losses. That is, if they are likely to have a bad quarter or bad year, they will search through the whole company for possible losses, and dump them all in that one quarter or year. Meaning that these losses would not show up in the future.

The new players might not be enough to keep the Pirates out of the National League cellar (even compared to other cellar dwellers in the East and West divisions). But they might be enough to keep us out of the absolute cellar (including the American League’s Baltimore Orioles). Which would again mean the second, rather than first, draft pick next year.

Some people would say, don’t “throw” the season just for a draft pick. Besides, the rookies need playing time to succeed in the future.

Fine. But then call them up in July, not June. That way, they’ll be around a year longer.

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This was the year that the Pirates were supposed to climb out of the cellar. Which is to say that they were supposed to be better than at least one other team in the National League Central.

But after a decent start, that hasn’t happened.

The Pirates do have a nice record (9-3) in the season series against the Chicago Cubs.

Under different circumstances, the Cubs might be in the cellar and the Pirates ahead of them. As was the case in 2006.

But the Cubs played uncharacteristically poorly against the Pirates, scoring fewer runs, and giving up more than their norm against other teams.

The energy of young Pirates seem to be taking a toll on the Cubs aging players in a way that is not happening to either team elsewhere in the majors.

The other candidate to take the mantle of cellar-dweller used to be the Houston Astros. That’s because they got off to a terrible 17-34 start at the end of May. As of that date, the Pirates had been the better team, with a record of 21-31.

But the Astros have gone 16-17, playing nearly .500 baseball since then. On the other hand, the Pirates had a lousy June (6-20). Sometime during that month, the two teams’ curves crossed. And not in the Pirates’ favor.

Houston’s first two victories against Pittsburgh were narrow (one to three run) wins. That suggested two closely matched (bad) teams, with the Pirates on the wrong end. Just as they were on the right end with the Cubs.

But the margin has widened in the last two games, suggesting that the Pirates are falling further behind.

Rookie Brad Lincoln, who pitched well against the Cubs, failed do so last night against the Astros. Other relatively young pitchers that the Pirates have deployed against the Astros are Charlie Morton and Chris Jakubauskas.

Not an “A-rotation,” even for Pittsburgh.

Actually, the Pirates and the Astros are very close in the standings. But the Astros are 4-0 in the season series. Change that to 4-0 in favor of the Pirates, or even a 2-2 split, and the Astros would be in last place in the National League Central.

But they’re not. Because the Pirates haven’t put them there. Which is why the Pirates are there themselves.

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Every team gets at least one player in its league’s respective All Star lineup.  Even the cellar-dwelling Pirates. This year’s contribution is reliever Evan Meeks (a former Tampa Bay Ray taken in the 2008 Rule Five Draft). With a league low 0.96 ERA, he really is All-Star caliber.

A second choice might have been Andrew McCutchen, or even Garrett Jones. But that didn’t turn out to be the case this year. Maybe next year or the year after.

Contributions have been heavier in other years. Last year both Zach Duke and Freddy Sanchez went to the All-Star game. Duke was something of a concession, having had an exceptionally good (for him) half-season.

But Sanchez was a repeater, having gone to the 2007 game after winning the National League batting title in 2006. Certainly he is better than anything (Akinori Iwamura, Delwyn Young, Neil Walker) the Pirates have deployed so far this year at second base.

In other previous years they sent Nate McLouth (2008) and Jason Bay (2006) to the All-Star game. Both of them are now shadows of their former selves, which is to say the Bucs haven’t lost that much by trading them.

Actually, the Pirates will have contributed three players to this year’s All-Star game, if you count a couple of former Pirates.

One of them is Matt Capps, a closer who the Pirates released rather than traded. He’s not as good as Meeks. Still, we might have gotten something for him by trading him.

But his new team, the Washington Nationals, is also in the National League. Meaning that Capps will be on “our side” in this year’s game.

The other former Pirate has gotten better since he left Pittsburgh. He’s Jose Bautista, who now plays for the Toronto Blue Jays, meaning that he is now on the OTHER side.

He hit 15 and 13 home runs in 2008 and 2009 respectively in just over 400 plate appearances, which would come out to nearly 20 homers prorated over a full season of 600 plate appearances. Now he has 20 home runs in about half a season.This follows work done on his swing last fall by Toronto’s batting coach.

It’s unlikely that he’ll continue at this pace (to 40) over the rest of 2010. But an additional 10 (his old pace), seems possible, and 15 more (to 35) is not out of the question, assuming he has truly taken his game up a notch.

On the other hand, Bautista, like Duke last year, may also have made it to the All-Star game based on an uncharacteristic first half.

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For stretches at a time, the Pittsburgh Pirates play respectably, hugging .500, hanging out in the middle of the division in the third or fourth spot, even second, for a brief period earlier this year. Then, the inevitable happens, and the Bucs end up in last place, where they are now.

The Pirates are a decent team at full strength, usually coming out of the box in April. In past years we were often 12-12, or 12-11 in the opening month. This year’s 10-13 start was uncharacteristically bad, but far better than what took place later.

Then someone gets hurt (Neil Walker) or falls apart (Charlie Morton and Dan McCutchen simultaneously), and all we have to fill the gap is Delwyn Young, in once instance, and Brian Burres (from AA) and Jeff Karstens, (sent back to AAA), in the other.

Other teams have players get hurt this way, but they show more resilience. That’s the sign of a strong bench. With a weak bench, the Pirates can’t manage as well. It seems that they are always just one or two players away from disaster.

This finally shows up in long losing streaks, like those that took place in the horrendous June: 2-13 in Interleague play; not much better, 4-7, against the National League.

Other teams do also go through losing streaks, but not as long or deep (two wins out of 15, plus more losses than wins in the remaining 11 games in the month).

Another problem is that the Pirates NEVER have winning series of comparable length to make up for the losses. Winning teams, like the Yankees, do. And it might not just be in calendar series.

Last year, the New Yorkers started the season series 0-8 against the Boston Red Sox. But they recovered to win nine of the last ten games, neutralizing Boston’s earlier advantage, to capture the AL East division title (Boston got the wild card).

So after a horrid Interleague series, the Pirates took two out of three games with the Chicago Cubs, a no longer redoubtable team. But that just netted one victory out of three games. That’s just a drop in the bucket of our recent losses.

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Right on the heels of Jose Bautista’s 20 home runs is Vernon Wells with 18. Going into Sunday afternoon’s game, the two men had nearly identical OPSs of .900 (Bautista) and .898 (Wells).

Wells’ slugging percentage is actually .020 points higher than Bautista’s, but the latter walks more, and has a .022 higher OBP.

Bautista has 47 and 49 runs and RBIs respectively. Wells’ totals are 43 and 45. The difference between the two mens’ offensive values is a statistical tie.

One thing that does meaningfully separate the two men is defense. Bautista is a liability on the field, while Wells is an asset. Moreover, Wells plays center field, a harder position than any of Bautista’s corner positions. 

On that basis, FanGraphs values Well’s contribution (year to date) as just over $10 million, Bautista’s at $7.5 million (based on what a free agent would likely receive for their respective performances). 

With not quite 81 games played, a reasonable rule of thumb would be to double these amounts and round up. On a full year basis, Wells might be worth about $21-$22  million, and Bautista $16 million. So (for now), defense tilts the balance in Wells’ favor.

But there is another factor that affects value, and it stems from the fact that Wells and Bautista got on the team in very different ways.

Wells has been a “Blue Jay all the way.” That’s certainly worth something in terms of loyalty, team fit, etc. But after a monster 2006, Wells was given a seven year, CC Sabathia-style contract extension lasting to 2014.

Counting three $8.5 annual installments of a $25.5 million signing bonus, Wells was awarded $9 million, $10 million, and $21 million for his first three free agent years of 2008-2010, $23 million in 2011, and $21 million each in 2012-2014.

Bautista, on the other hand, came to Toronto after having been demoted to the minor leagues by the Pittsburgh Pirates, who placed a far greater emphasis on his low batting average than his high OBP and OPS potential.

His trade for “a player to be named later” (Robinzon Diaz), reflects the extent to which he was considered damaged goods, as were his low salary, and the fact that he spent 2009 as a platoon player, playing about two games out of three.

This points out one other important difference between the two men: Wells is on track to barely earn his $21 million salary this year (after having failed to earn his salary with poor years in 2008 and 2009 because of injuries), leaving no extra value for the team.

On the other hand, Bautista is being paid $2.4 million, almost $14 million less than what he might be worth.

Put another way, with Well’s $21 million salary, you could get equivalent offensive production from Bautista (admittedly sacrificing some defense), and have almost $19 million left over, more than enough to pay pitcher Roy Halladay’s $16 million salary this year. The details, but not the dynamics, would change next year, when Halladay would be making $20 million and Wells $23 million.

On this basis, Wells is full-priced, and Bautista a huge bargain. As master investor Ben Graham (Warren Buffett’s teacher) said, “Price is what you pay, value is what you get.”

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The Pittsburgh Pirates are 2-11 so far this year in Interleague play against the Detroit Tigers, the Chicago White Sox, the Texas Rangers, the Cleveland Indians, and the Oakland As. The only bright spot was the 2-1 series against the comparably bad Cleveland Indians.

Even if they split the next two games with the As (which is expecting a lot), they would be 3-12 against the American League. Worse, Neil Walker was injured in yesterday’s game.

The Pirates played three American League Central Teams, plus the substitutions of the Texas Rangers (a central team geographically if not league-wise) for the weaker Kansas City Royals, and the As for the Minnesota Twins. Playing the western division leaders (Rangers) clearly didn’t help the Pirates, who might have taken a game or two from the Royals.

The better teams appear to be in the American League, and National League teams typically do slightly less than break even (.500) against them. But they do a lot better than the .200 tally implied by the Pirates’ hypothetical three wins, meaning that the Pirates have lost ground, even against other National League teams.

Interleague results have been symptomatic of the Pirates’ overall problems. They do well against selected teams in the National League like the Chicago Cubs (formerly a major bugaboo), but few others.The 1-2 tally earlier this month against the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals was a “good” one (for them).

But the formerly cellar-dwelling Washington Nationals took three games from them. All in all, the Pittsburghers had a very bad June, with only four wins, and the month almost over.

Even so, the Interleague games are the least important games in the season. Naturally, the Pirates want to do well on the curve against other National League teams, against opponents in the other league. On the other hand, no American League team, per se, will come out ahead of the Pirates in the standings based on these games, because of the separation of the leagues.

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Fans of Jose Bautista’s former team, the Pittsburgh Pirates, would laugh at the idea. (Except for yours truly.)

But the former “tail-ender” now leads the Toronto Blue Jays in four out of five offensive categories, according to ESPN.

That’s not exactly what the Pirates would have expected when they traded him for “a player to be named later” (backup catcher Robinzon Diaz).

In only one regard, batting average, is Bautista a “tail-ender (.232). But that’s most of what’s “wrong” with him.

Here’s what’s right. Of his 56 hits (in 241 at-bats), 20 are home runs, the most in the majors. Some 16 more went for two or three bases. Almost two-thirds of his hits are NOT singles. He picks pitches he can hit HARD.

Bautista also has 50 “walks” (counting both bases on balls and hit by pitches), almost as many as hits—which is mostly how he gets on first base. That’s also a testament to his “good eye.”

Which is why his on-base percentage (OBP), .357, is some 125 points higher than his batting average (the difference is only half that for an average player). He’s also tops in OPS, which measures both OBP and slugging.

As a fielder, Bautista is no great shakes. But he is very versatile insofar as he can play any one of the four “corner” positions, left and right field and third and first base. An All-Star team could put him, and his big bat, in any one of those slots.

Last year, Toronto was hoping that left fielder Travis Snider would be a big home run hitter. He is a promising player who is still young, has a way to go, and might eventually fulfill his early promise.

But the Blue Jays got their power hitter with the OTHER platoon left fielder, Bautista. Who is in the “here and now.” After having matured into an everyday player. Which is why Toronto’s platoon system is a good one.

Bautista is kind of a “Cinderella” story. But that story might be one of the Blue Jays if they trade for more players like him.

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Jose Bautista, a gem? With his .222 batting average? This is just another case where a player’s “headline” number is rather misleading.

It’s true that Bautista has “only” 52 hits in 234 at bats. But 18 of those, or more than one-third of the total, are home runs. Another 15 have gone for two or three bases. Meaning that when he does hit, it’s usually not a single.

Bautista does get on first base a lot—through walks. In fact, he has almost as many walks (49) as hits (counting both bases on balls and hit by pitches as walks). Put another way, his on base percentage (OBP) is .350.

Bautista is not as “athletic” as the average Pirate. And he affected an “economy of effort” that led people to confuse him with a genuinely lazy player, Ronnie Paulino. But what Bautista may or may not lack in arm strength, he makes up with a sharp eye. He doesn’t hit often because he takes his walks. But he “crushes” the pitches that he can.

An extreme example of this kind of talent was Jason Giambi of the Oakland As (and later New York Yankees), who was endowed, with a “one in a million” level of eyesight. Like Bautista, he batted around .225, but took pitches and walks to the point where he got on base on just under half of his plate appearances.

Like Bautista, his sharp eye eventually led to home runs (although some of his power was ill-gotten through steroids). But factor out his steroids and power, by assuming  that every extra base hit was a single, and he’d still have been a highly valuable hitter.

So how does Bautista stack up against Andy LaRoche, his replacement. LaRoche does have a slightly better batting average, .233. But LaRoche also has 15 fewer home runs, and 10 fewer extra base hits. Counting walks, his on base percentage is only 296. Bautista is a slight liability as a fielder, but so, nowadays, is the error-prone LaRoche, after a stellar 2009.

The last set of facts is analogous to how LaRoche typically gets to a .250 average. That’s in an unusual, Charlie Morton-like way, by hugging extremes. He’ll have stretches, for nearly half a season, of hitting about .300, and other stretches where his average is more like .200. Netting them against each other gives him about .250. History suggests that he’ll “improve,” slightly,from here.

When they traded for him, the Pirates saw LaRoche put up a .300 stretch and (wrongly) thought that was typical of his performance. They also saw Bautista’s anemic batting average, and overlooked his other virtues.

If the Pirates had traded Bautista for LaRoche “straight up,” it would have been a bad deal. But they did worse than that. They traded for LaRoche (plus two busted prospects, Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss, and injury-hobbled Bryan Morris) using star outfielder Jason Bay.

Then they turned around and dumped Bautista for a backup catcher, Jason Jaramillo. Netting Bautista against LaRoche (which is being kind to the Pirates) they traded Bay for three mediocre “advanced” prospects, plus Morris.

In some regards, Bautista can be compared with Nate McLouth. The latter hit 25 home runs in 2008 and 20 in 2009. With 18 home runs and less than half the season gone, Bautista is on track to outslug McLouth. Batista’s OBP approximates McLouth’s 2009 tally of .352. (Forget about McLouth’s terrible 2010.) Like LaRoche, McLouth does have a slightly better batting average than Bautista, and like LaRoche, McLouth is a liability on the field, (his “golden glove” given for his HITTING reputation not withstanding).

Many Pirate fans groaned when we traded Nate McLouth. Few (other than yours truly) felt the same way about Jose Bautista. But we got far more for McLouth (a mixed performance from Charlie Morton plus two other prospects) than for Jose Bautista (Jaramillo). Even though Bautista is now the more valuable player.

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Pitcher Paul Maholm is a “veteran.” So is Zach Duke. But only on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Both of them are still arbitration eligible. Ross Ohlendorf (acquired from the Yankees in 2008) can be put into this group as well.

The same is somewhat true for recent acquisitions—shortstop Ronnie Cedeno, second baseman Akinori Iwamura, outfielder Ryan Church, and utility infielder Bobby Crosby.

Cedeno is the new “Jack Wilson,” after the latter declined to Cedeno’s level (meaning that Jeff Clement, who we got in the two for one trade, was a “free roll,” although a crappy one). Cedeno costs less than Wilson because he’s still in his arbitration years.

Iwamura was an arbitration-eligible player, but one his former team, the Tampa Bay Rays, didn’t mind releasing. Church, another arbitration year player, is still a question mark for health reasons. Crosby was a bottom-of-the-barrel free agent who commanded a bottom-of-the-barrel salary of just over $1 million.

On the other hand, fielders Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, and Neil Walker just arrived from AAA. Throw in Garrett Jones and Andy McCutchen if you go back to the beginning of last year.

Only Ryan Doumit even passes for a veteran among “career” everyday Pirates, although additions Lastings Milledge and Andy LaRoche also have comparable experience.

This means that about half the Pirates’ position players were recently AAA, and only Crosby is post-arbitration. 

Much the same is true with pitching. Nearly half of our starter innings have come from pitchers (Brian Burress, Jeff Karstens, Brad Lincoln, Dan McCutchen, and Charlie Morton) who are either in AAA now or have been earlier this year. The “veterans” were listed above in the opening paragraph.

Past trades have gutted the lineup. Our rookie outfielders may be suitable replacements for people like Xavier Nady and Nate McLout, but we haven’t truly replaced former second baseman Freddy Sanchez, who is having a good year elsewhere for $7 million.

We should have also tried to re-sign or “contract extend” Jason Bay for perhaps $10 million a year after he indicated that he wanted to stay in 2008. (The lower cost of living and lesser spotlight might have made this equivalent to what he is getting in New York.)

And if he had chosen to walk, as Sanchez did (after a low-ball team offer), it would have been his decision, not the Pirates’.

There are times when the Pirates play like a AAA team. The reason is simple: Much of the team recently arrived from there. And most of the rest aren’t that much farther along.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates had a great farm team, with the likes of Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Brad Lincoln, and Pedro Alvarez. As recently as early last year, that even included Andrew McCutchen. Not to mention, Garret Jones.

Now, with the exception of Alvarez, they’ve been called-up to fill some fairly big holes. Alvarez’s arrival is anticipated as soon as he’s ready

McCutchen replaced Nate McLouth, who was traded for pitching talent, and Jones was supposedly the “new Nady.”

Neil Walker is mostly playing second base, where Akinori Iwamura has been a bust replacing Freddy Sanchez. Tabata is playing left field, pushing Lastings Milledge to right field and Garrett Jones to first base, where he replaces a light-hitting Jeff Clement.

Brad Lincoln is the latest in a line of would-be fifth starters, having pushed out Brian Burres, meaning that the Pirates basically don’t have enough talent to competently fill-out a rotation.

With the exception of Alvarez and Burres, there’s not much left in the Pirates’ farm system.

Steve Pearce may finally amount to something, after all these years. Otherwise, the McLouth trade brought in two candidates, Gorkys Hernandez and Jeff Locke—three if you count Charlie Morton, who’s being rehabbed in the minors after a reasonably promising start in 2009.

There’s also pitcher Tim Alderson, received for Freddy Sanchez. Josh Harrison is also left, and he may have moved ahead of Kevin Hart as the more valuable piece of the Tom Gorzelanny trade.

However, the list of good prospects just about ends there. It doesn’t include the Brians, Bixler and Morris (the latter’s first name is spelled somewhat differently), the two Craigs, Monroe and Hansen, or the two Vazquez’s, Ramon and Virgil. It probably doesn’t include the “other” McCutchen, pitcher Dan.

But players can only be in one place or another. With the past year’s call-ups, the farm team doesn’t look so good; and with the exception of McCutchen and Jones, the call-ups aren’t fully established major leaguers yet.

For now, the Pirates have a bunch of players that are “neither here nor there.”

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