Kuzul

One of them is still a cellar dwelling team. The other no longer is. And that’s not just by the standings.

The Pirates’ win percentage of .390 is genuinely cellar-dwelling. They’ve been lucky for most of the season, in that one or more teams have had (until recently) even worse showings. But this luck seems to have run out, at least for now.

The Nationals have a win percentage .483. That puts them only half a game above the cellar, but only in the very competitive National League East. They’re also only five games out of first place.

Meaning that it’s not inconceivable, although unlikely, that they could win the division title from here. More to the point, the team has been competitive for almost the whole season.

Both teams have spent the past year or two rebuilding. But one of them has done a better job than the other.

Washington had more to work with. Their offense has always been average to above average.

Their Achilles heel has been pitching.

However, that is a problem which they have largely fixed at one stroke, with the addition of (2009 draft choice) Stephen Strasburg to the roster. Additionally, the emergence of former Met, Livan Hernandez, as a front of rotation type, has certainly helped.

Granted, John Lannan and Craig Stammen are nothing to write home about, but another starter upgrade or two should see the Nationals through.

The Pirates have been weaker on both hitting and pitching, showing strength only in “peripheral” areas like defense and relief pitching. “Upgrades” in the two weak areas worked more like “patches” than anything else, stanching, but not stopping the bleeding.

An example came from the past series.

The Pirates took comfort in the fact that their latest pitching addition, Brad Lincoln, pitched six innings, giving up five runs, not too bad for a first-timer. Lincoln also helped himself at the plate, going two-for-three. The other newcomer, Jose Tabata, went two-for-four.

On the other hand, Washington rookie Stephen Strasburg not only made an attention-getting debut, but pitched very well, PERIOD. If his seven-inning, two-run start turns out to be “typical,” he will be a Rookie of the Year, or Cy Young candidate.

Washington has also helped itself to some former Pirates. They’ve clearly gotten the better of last year’s Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett trade, (which I opposed for the Pirates at the time). And Matt Capps, a closer that the Pirates dumped in disgust after an atypically bad 2009, found his way to the Nats’ bullpen, and returned to his usual (decent) form.

Both teams are making progress. But one appears to be within sight of .500, if not a division championship, while the other has barely begun to lift itself off the ground.

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I can’t say I approve of the Pirates’s draft strategy. But at least they are consistent.

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Jameson Taillon, the top-ranked high school pitcher, in the first round.

Then, unexpectedly, Stetson Allie, the second-ranked high school pitcher in the second round after no other team took him in the first.

That is, after Bryce Harper was taken by the Washington Nationals with the first overall pick.

The keys here are “high school,” and “pitcher.” High school players (as a group), are notoriously less reliable than college players. And high school pitchers are the least reliable of all.

A “normal” fielder has two functions; batting and fielding. If such a player doesn’t live up to his promise in one area, there is always the other one that might provide compensation.

But that’s not true for pitchers, who normally “can’t hit,” and in any event, plays in at most one game out of five. And that’s in the National League. Because in the American League, the designated hitter makes this a moot point.

Basically, a pitcher’s SOLE function, is to pitch. And of all the fielding functions, that is the hardest of all. Because a pitcher has to locate balls with a desired speed and pinpoint accuracy.

A small deviation from plan could make the difference between an out and a home run. There is no allowance for getting it “in the zone,” the way there would be for a position player.

Because of the demands, pitchers are arguably the most injury prone. As such, they need to be drafted with care, with an eye for durability, as well as raw skill.

Such durability is much better exhibited in college, against “real” competition, than in high school. Drafting a high school pitcher is just a crap shoot.

So what were the Pirates’ alternatives? If they wanted a pitcher, the most reliable choice was Drew Pomeranz, a college player, who at least, has weathered a few storms.

On the other hand, if the Pirates wanted a high school player, a safer choice might have been Manny Machado, whose position was shortstop (a key defender), who hits better than the average position player. That’s in the manner of the New York Yankees’ Derek Jeter (who hasn’t yet gone to college).

And even though they want pitching, the best way to “get there” might be to draft the best available player, even though he plays another position.

In the 2001 draft, three of four teams ahead of the Texas Rangers drafted pitchers (only one of whom became an All-Star), as did four teams right after the Rangers (two of whose pitchers didn’t make the majors). But Texas drafted future All-Star Mark Teixeira, who could have been trade bait for any (established) pitcher you could name.

And there is another reason that the low-budget Pirates, (like the low-budget Oakland A’s), should sign mainly college players.

That’s due to issues like the six-year period of club control, and fact that the average baseball player peaks at age 28.

Suppose the team signs a college player at age 20, keeps him three years in the minors, and brings him to the majors at age 23. He will become a free agent at age 29, probably AFTER his peak.

Change the signing age to 18, and the arrival in the majors to age 21, and he becomes a free agent at age 27, with his future peak captured by a higher-paying team.

There might be a reason that Stetson Allie was available to the Pirates at the beginning of the second round. The conventional wisdom regarding high school players might have turned off all the first-round pickers (plus the Nationals in the second round).

On the other hand, the Pirates did get two or three of the best high school pitchers. One of them may just pan out, despite the odds.

In drafting as they did, the Pirates followed a deeply “contrarian” strategy that might turn out to be very right or very wrong.

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Finally, the Pittsburgh Pirates have found a team (in their division) that they can beat—the Chicago Cubs. The Bucs are 7-1 so far against the Northsiders of the Windy City, having won the “rubber” game of the third series last night.

Such dominance often occurs when one team is just a little better than the other, but across the board. A year or two ago, the Cubs similarly dominated the Pirates, without being a whole lot better than they are now.

The games have been (mostly) low-scoring close ones, 4-3, 4-2, 3-2, etc., with the sole loss being the wrong end of a 4-3 tally. But the Pirates’ dominance was shown in one 11-1 blowout. Last year, the blowout went the other way, 17-2, with ten runs in the first inning off Charlie Morton.

Speaking of which, all of the starters, except for Zach Duke who hasn’t started against the Cubs (until tonight) have pitched well against them. That includes Maholm, Morton, Burress, Karstens and Ohlendorf. With the one exception mentioned above, the relievers have turned all the starters’ no-decisions into victories.

These starters don’t do so well against third parties, which is why neither their, nor the Pirates overall records are that impressive.  But they appear to have “solved” the Cubs, by holding their run totals below what the Bucs can score on most nights.

With their more consistent pitching and somewhat better hitting, the Cubs have done better against third parties than the Pirates. They went 3-1 against Arizona, and 2-0 against the Colorado Rockies, two teams that usually give the Pirates trouble.

But the Pirates have proven themselves to be a team that one “must” beat in order to be a good team. In years past, the Cubs have met that definition of a good team. This year, they aren’t doing so, which is why they are barely ahead of Pittsburgh in a race for third place.

The Cubs had a good team a few years ago, but with the notable exception of Tom Gorzelanny (acquired from the Pirates), they haven’t been infusing their aging stars with younger players. Meanwhile, the Pirates did trade “Gorzo” for two prospects of younger average age.

The Cubs appear to be getting worse as time goes by. The Pirates, at long last, are getting better. Their paths appear to be crossing as we speak.

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By most measures, Bryce Harper is the pick of the 2010 draft class. He is a multi-tool offensive player that is also believed to be able to play several positions. There is a chance the Pittsburgh Pirates will be able to draft him. There is a larger chance that they won’t.

Based on their 2009 records, the Pirates have the second overall draft pick in 2010, with the Washington Nationals coming in first. Washington is believed to prefer Harper, just as it selected Steve Strasburg with last year’s first pick.

Coming up through the minors in just about a year, Strasburg is clearly a “phenom.” This (or most other years’) class, might not produce someone quite so exceptional. Hence, Harper probably isn’t quite as clear-cut a first draft pick as Strasburg.

One of the people challenging Harper for the top spot in the draft sweepstakes is Manny Machado. Machado is a strong hitter, but isn’t believed to be as versatile as Harper.

On the other hand, Machado does project as a future shortstop (a key defender), who can also hit better than the average position player, never mind an average shortstop.

A great player in that position, the modern equivalent of the New York Yankees’ Derek Jeter, is something either the Nationals or the Pirates could use. The current incumbents, Ian Desmond and Ronny Cedeno, are adequate, but by no means outstanding in the position.

In the past, the Pirates would have declined to pay the multi-millions required to sign either of them. They opted for less expensive (presumed) mediocrities like Bryan Bullington in 2002, and Daniel Moskowitz in 2007. But that changed with the signing of Pedro Alvarez in 2008.

And with the lowest payroll in the majors, the Pirates have saved enough for the draft. In order to get the players they need to win, the Bucs will have to spend money somewhere.

The Nationals, on the other hand, have been more consistent about picking what they believe to be the best available prospect. That was clearly the case with Strasburg. They’ll draft Harper too, if they believe that he is best. If they don’t, it will reflect a belief that he’s second best.

With the second draft pick, the Pirates will not get “first dibs” on these players. But they can count on “one or the other” (or a choice of third parties), because Washington isn’t going to get both picks.

Some rankings put Machado ahead of Harper in overall draft desirability. Which is why the Washington Nationals might draft him instead of Harper. Which is why the Pittsburgh Pirates should draft him if Washington doesn’t.

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Besides Paul Maholm, Zach Duke is the longest serving Pirate. And he is still hard to typecast.

On a good night, he is capable of beating a Cy Young award winner like the New York Mets’ Johan Santana, or the Phillies Roy Halladay. On a bad day, he can be truly awful.

An example of this was Duke’s last outing against Cincinnati. He gave up five runs, two of them homers, in five innings, for a 9.00 ERA.

Last night, Halladay pitched a quality start against the Pirates, two runs in a complete game, a basically “average” performance—for him. He’s done both better (fewer runs in the same nine innings), and worse (the same two runs in fewer innings).

Given that he struck out six and walked one, nine hits and two runs represented an “average expectation.”

But on a pro rata basis at least, Duke pitched even better: one run on six hits in six innings, while striking out five. Last night was one of his better nights, meaning that’s an atypical performance for him.

And given the shutout relief that has been the staple of the Pirates’ bullpen, that was good enough for a win. One might argue that Duke, who didn’t pitch as long, wasn’t better than Halladay. But Duke and the bullpen clearly were.

The Pirates had just enough offense to win. Back to back doubles by Andy LaRoche and Ryan Doumit accounted for the first run. An RBI single by Garrett Jones, who had three hits, scored the second (Lastings Milledge from second base).

Tonight’s matchup, in Pittsburgh against the Milwaukee Brewers, could tell a similar story. The Brewers’ Randy Wolf will be facing Brian Burres. They have similar ERAs, between 4.50 and 5.00, but the similarity ends there.

Wolf’s ERA has a normal consistency around the trendline. Burres is the exact opposite, with a 0.00 ERA in his best two games totalling 12.1 innings, and a 9.25 ERA in his worst three outings totalling 13 innings. It’s either feast or famine against him.

Statistically, such a wide dispersion of outcomes, weighted toward both ends, is a property called skewness. This is a pattern exhibited in an extreme form by Charlie Morton.

But other Pirate pitchers are not far behind in this regard. For now, at least, the team has a whole rotation of “Charlie Mortons.”

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The Pirates’ mistakes in Sunday’s game were obvious.

Coming into the bottom of the seventh with a 3-1 lead, starter Ross Ohlendorf walked Mike Fontenot, the leadoff batter.

After two flyouts, second baseman Bobby Crosby narrowly missed fielding a grounder for the third out. Reliever Evan Meek made a wild pitch that scored a second run, and then shortstop Ronny Cedeno made an outright error that allowed a third run to score.

In the eighth, an Alfonso Soriano single, followed by wild pitch and a second single by pinch hitter (and former Pirate) Xavier Nady scored the winning run.

This prevented the Pirates from making a rare sweep of the Cubs at home and extend their victorious string in the season series to six.

The Pirates who were 11-0, are now 11-1 when leading after six innings.

That’s a very good record, except that the Pirates haven’t been leading after six that many times, and often not by much. Yesterday, “bad luck” caught up with them.

What was unspoken in yesterday’s game was the below-average run production. The club scored only three runs, all of which came in the second inning.

Two hits and two walks loaded the bases while pushing in a run. The third hit of the inning scored two runs. That sequence accounted for half the Pirates hits, half their walks, and half their baserunners for the WHOLE game.

Besides that, only in the seventh did the Pirates have more than one man on base (loading the bases, but without scoring). The Cubs got eight hits, four walks, and four runs altogether, enough to edge out the Bucs.

One way of looking at things is sequentially.

The Pirates WERE ahead 3-1, and then blew the game by allowing two runs in the seventh inning and one in the eighth. If they hadn’t done so, they would have won.

Another way of looking at things is quantitatively: the Chicago Cubs scored four runs over a nine inning stretch, the Pirates only three.

The order of the innings could have been reversed.

The Cubs scoring two runs in the second, the Pirates’ three in the top of the seventh, and the Cubs again in the bottom of the seventh, for a 3-3 tie, and the winning run in any given inning, with the same result.

On the season, the Pirates have scored only 131 runs, ahead of only the Houston Astros in the National League. They are lucky not to be the second-worst team in the league (or even worst, because the Pirates have also allowed more runs than the Astros).

In their 16 wins, the Pirates have scored 90 runs, or an average of more than five-and-a half runs apiece. In their 21 losses they’ve scored only 41 runs, averaging just under two runs apiece.

They scored only three runs yesterday. That’s closer to a two run loss than a five-and-a half run win.

The magic number is four: The Pirates are likely to win when they score four or more runs. They are likely to lose when they score fewer.

To illustrate, let’s look at Saturday’s game, which was 4-3 the other way.

After successive relievers had put down Cubs batters in order without difficulty, the Pirates were leading 3-2 coming into the ninth, then scored a badly needed insurance run on Jeff Clements’ solo homer.

In the bottom of the ninth, Octavio Dotel, who was charged with closing the game, allowed a walk to Starlin Castro, then a triple to Kosuke Fukudome to make the score 4-3 with only one out.

Fortunately, Dotel struck out the next batter, Ryan Theriot, preventing the runner from advancing, then fanned the following one, Marlon Byrd, to end the game for the Pirates’ victory.

Coming into their portion of the ninth on Saturday, the Cubs had only a nine percent chance of winning (based on historical results for home teams trailing by two coming for “last licks”).

But that percentage shot up to 42 percent on the triple, before declining to zero on the remaining two outs. (The Cubs were actually favorites to score the runner on third, which would have made the game a toss-up).

Coming into bottom of the seventh with a 3-1 deficit yesterday, the Cubs had a 22 percent chance to win. The walk made it 28 percent, the wild pitch and first run, 33 percent, and the second run created an even-money bet.

The Pirates could have won yesterday’s game.

They could also have lost Saturday’s.

On the whole, winning one of those two was a “fair” result, given their batting. In order to do better, they need to hit better and score more runs.

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Last year, the Pittsburgh Pirates traded away Tom Gorzelanny, then later signed Brian Burres as compensation. Friday night’s game was the first test of the direct impact of the two moves. So how did the Pirates do?

Not so well. Burres pitched four innings, one less than Gorzelanny. And he gave up six runs, one more than Tom Gorzelanny. Clearly, the Pirates had given up something with this sequence of events.

But the team was not punished for this foolishness with a loss. That’s because the one-two punch of Andy McCutchen and Garrett Jones punched out seven runs, enough to defeat the six-run scoring Cubs by themselves.

And they chased Gorzelanny after his usual five innings. The remaining three runs were gravy.

A good trade of established players for prospects is one where you get some immediate, or at least visible, value, plus something at the back end. An example was that of Nate McLouth for Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez, and Jeff Locke.

Morton represented about two thirds of the value of McLouth in 2009, meaning that the difference can be made up by either Hernandez or Locke.

If both of them are contributory, or one in a big way, the Pirates would have come out ahead on the deal. The Pirates lose only if both are “busts,” meaning that their exposure is one-third of player.

If Burres, a serviceable but somewhat inferior pitcher, had been part of the Gorzelanny deal, with Kevin Hart and Josh Harrison performing the function of “Gorkys Hernandez and Jeff Locke,” I’d say it was a pretty good swap.

But that’s not how the trade evolved. It was initially Gorzelanny for Hart and Harrison (netting out the two relievers. And “their” reliever, John Grabow, pitched against us in Friday’s game while “ours,” Jose Ascanio, is on the disabled list.) Burres was signed by the Pirates later, separately.

Meaning that they initially made a bad deal, and then “lucked out” by being able to partly, though not entirely, repair it with the signing of Burres.

The Pirates won’t always be this lucky, meaning that it behooves them not to make such bad deals in the first place.

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Javier Vazquez didn’t exactly win his most recent start against the Detroit Tigers. However, he pitched a seven inning quality start, giving up only two runs in the sixth for the wrong end of a 2-0 tally.

It’s as well as he has pitched all season. That’s including his nominally victorious 5.1 inning, three run effort against the light-hitting Oakland As.

More to the point, it was about as well as Vazquez pitched most of last season, except for four of his last six games in which he pitched three seven inning shutout starts, and one complete game with only one run, thereby maximizing his trade value for the Atlanta Braves.

The dynamic is a bit like trading spouses or partners; the old one knows that the “run” can’t last, and the new one hopes that it WILL last. Usually, it’s the new one that is disappointed.

Taking the most recent game as Vazquez’ ceiling, a realistic assessment is that on average, he might be able to pitch something like five innings for three runs as he did against the As.

That’s not great, but it means that he may well win the majority of his forward-going games, given that he gets good Yankee run support.

But first, Vazquez has to dig himself out of a 1-4 hole, having lost all but two games he pitched, including his last good one.

The good-hitting Bronx Bombers can stand such a performance from a fifth starter caliber pitcher. Phil Hughes has finally broken through, after several lackluster attempts in previous seasons. The front three, with CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Andy Pettite, is solid.

On the other hand, the Yankees didn’t give up much in the trade for Vazquez. Melky Cabrera, the main consideration, is hitting all of .196 with the Atlanta Braves. Boone Logan, a serviceable reliever, came in the same package as Vazquez as an offset to two pitching prospects.

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All right, Zach Duke didn’t exactly pitch a great start, but the real culprit in his, and other recent losses to the Cincinnati Reds, was the Pirate bats, or lack thereof.

Ross Ohlendorf pitched a one-run start coming off the disabled list, and didn’t deserve to lose. And Charlie Morton’s six-inning effort was a three-run, quality start, which, by definition, should have given Pirates a 50-50 chance to win against a random opponent.

The Pirates were swept in the series because they were outscored 16-1. The one run was at the tail end of Ohlendorf’s 2-1 loss.

The last time the Pirates were swept in a series at home, they were outscored by the Milwaukee Brewers, 36-1. But with only one run scored in three games, it could have been 16-1, or even 6-1, and been the same result.

On the road, against the Houston Astros, the Pirates were outscored 22-8; no surprise that they lost all three games. Almost the same thing happened in the four game road series in Los Angeles, in which the Pirates were outscored 22-8, lucky to steal one game, 2-0.

The Pirates have a batting average of only .235, which is low even for them. The two Andys, McCutchen and LaRoche, are hitting well by any measure, and the two Ryans, Doumit and Church are hitting well for Pirates. (Though Andy LaRoche has been making fielding errors that cost games.)

But the rest of the offense is anemic. Garrett Jones is not currently the wonderkid he was last year, and Lastings Milledge needs to step it up, calling into question the wisdom of trading Nyjer Morgan for him. (Milledge has hit ZERO home runs so far, the same as Morgan, and his batting average is decidedly worse.)

The Pirates have about the best record in the majors, 11-2, in games in which they scored four or more runs. But that’s almost the total of their victories; they’ve won only three games scoring two or three runs.

The other position players—Jeff Clement, Akinori Iwamura, Ronny Cedeno—have fielded decently but can’t hit, either individually or collectively. Having one such player may be a good idea to encourage others on the field, but three of them is too much for a lineup.

The Pirates simply have not signed heavy-hitting, light-fielding players of the Gary Sheffield or Bobby Abreu variety, even when they came cheap (Sheffield for $400,000 after the rest of his salary was picked up, Abreu for $5.5 million in 2009).

The Pirates’ pitching isn’t great, but by some miracle, the hurlers have kept the team in almost every game where the hitters have hit decently.”Starting pitching” is NOT (for now) the team’s Achilles heel.

It’s the bats that have held the team back:The Pirates have the second-fewest runs in the National League, ahead only of the cellar-dwelling Houston Astros.

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That’s not a question one normally asks about the Pittsburgh Pirates.

And they made what was a bad situation even worse last year when they traded current star Tom Gorzelanny for rookie Kevin Hart and a raw fielding prospect (netting the two relievers against each other).

But in the recent bind, caused by the collapse of Charlie Morton and Dan McCutchen, not one, but two unlikely pitchers came to the rescue: Jeff Karstens and Brian Burress.

Both of them have pitched brilliant games recently; Burress had back-to-back great games and Karstens had two out of three.

Forget, for a moment, about the original fifth starter candidates Dan McCutchen and Kevin Hart; neither of whom seem worthy of the name right now.

With Ross Ohlendorf back in the rotation, the Pirates have their original front four, plus two candidates for fifth starter in Burress and Karstens.

Should one of them be demoted back to the minors?

That might be unfair as the two are near-equals, and both may be better than a typical fifth starter.

Moreover, despite one recent win, Morton is looking more than a bit shaky as a fourth starter, and there’s always a chance of another injury.

The Pirates did right to keep both of them in the majors.

That would effectively give the Pirates two fifth starters. For now Burress will be the starter, while Karstens will be used as a reliever, which will take some of the pressure of a full starter workload off of him.

But he stands ready to go back into the rotation in case there is another injury.

If this works out there is the possibility that the Pirates can trade Zach Duke, their longest-tenured pitcher, to some of other team for a much needed infield power hitter.

This could be a great move unless Josh Harrison, the second base prospect for whom the Pirates traded Gorzelanny, turns out to be that man.

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