Kuzul

No, the Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t going to be a factor in the division race for some time to come. But they have already made a difference in the National League Central race.

The Pirates haven’t been any great shakes against the Houston Astros, losing three games to them in Minute Maid Park, and they’re 2-4 against the Milwaukee Brewers.

But the Astros and the Brewers are now in the last and next to the last places in the National League Central. That’s to say they’d be even worse off without their winning seasons against the Pirates. The Bucs will need to do better against these teams to amount to anything in the division.

But the Pittsburghers have done surprisingly well against two challengers for the division title, the Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds. They just finished a three game sweep of the Cubs in PNC Park, after having done same to the Reds earlier this year.

This accounts for most of Cincinnati’s three and a half games out of first place. And the Cubs used to be in the mix for at least second place before their recent series with the Pirates; now they’re in fourth place, having slipped behind the winners.

Granted, these were home games; there is as yet no telling how well (or poorly) the Pirates will do on the road against these teams. But the fact that they are 3-0 in each season series at least represents a good start.

If the Bucs sweep the St. Louis Cardinals at home, the impact will be a “wash” as far as the top three contenders are concerned. But if they don’t, and the Cardinals win one or more games, it will just enhance the Redbirds’ lead over the rest of the division.

The Pirates aren’t yet making enough headway against weak teams to be champions. But they are doing well enough against nominally stronger opponents to be spoilers.

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Expert handicapper ESPN rates the Chicago Cubs a 2-1 favorite over the Pirates in PNC Park tonight.

But the Pirates’ Charlie Morton can beat the Cubs’ Ted Lilly. Because Morton already has. Last year, in Chicago.

It won’t be easy, of course. Recent history suggests that Lilly will go about six innings against the Pirates, giving up about three runs, more likely than not for a quality start.

Basically, the Pirates figure to score against him, but not run up the total. He is aged 34, which is to say that he figures to decline with each passing year.

The wild card, of course, is Morton, who is at the beginning of his career. He is capable of pitching from one to nine innings, giving up from 0 to 10 runs. At least against the Cubs, because he has done both. (The run total has been inversely related to his tenure.)

Don’t talk about averages with this guy, because he doesn’t fall into the usual probability distributions. A “mediocre” performance, something like four runs in five innings that used to be the staple of Zach Duke, is not typical of Morton. Against Lilly, that might represent a “garden variety” loss.

But Morton is on an improving trend lately. Lilly, on a decline. At some point, the paths may cross in the Pirates’ favor. Hopefully, that point will be tonight.

Morton has a “lights out” K/9 rate, striking out more than one batter an inning. He doesn’t walk an awful lot of players. But he has given up one home run every three innings in 2010. That rate has historically been one in 10.

Morton’s 2010 batting average of balls in play (BABIP) is an exceptionally high .439. Unless he’s hurt, that suggests that he’s been unlucky over a small number of innings.

Last year, that average was a perfectly normal .310. Lilly’s is under .300, on the low side of normal, meaning that his results might get worse.

Morton also pitches better at home. Last year, his ERA in PNC Park was just over 3.00. That’s decidedly better than Lilly is likely to be.

The bookies are saying that Morton won’t pitch his best game tonight. But a 2-1 bet against the Pirates is one that I’m willing to take on the long odds side. Because they’re probably shorter than that.

The only thing that I’m not willing to bet on is that Morton will match Lilly inning for inning, run for run. Because Morton is likely to be better than Lilly—or else a lot worse.

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Coming into Friday night’s games, it appears that the Oakland A’s may have come out of the starting gate with a small, although not decisive, lead in the division race.

That’s in spite of the fact that the four teams of the American League West have very similar records. And the first month of the season is just closing.

There are two considerations that put Oakland a little ahead. One is how well they’ve done in the division itself. The other is how many tough games outside the division they’ve played.

Oakland is 6-4 against Western Division rivals, leading in the season series against both the Los Angeles Angels and the Seattle Mariners. It stands to reason that both teams have (so far) losing records in the division.

The only division team the A’s haven’t played so far is the Texas Rangers, and they now trail Oakland by the most.

The division games are the most important for two reasons: 1) a team plays more of them than games outside the division, and 2) a victory in such a game is automatically a loss (and vice-versa) for someone else in the race.

The other reason is that the A’s are still ahead after being set back in six games against the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays,  Without the 1-5 record in those games, the A’s record would be an impressive 11-6.

The Angels have done somewhat better, 3-3 against the Yankees, but they haven’t played the arguably tougher Rays. The Angels are playing barely above .500 ball, with or without the Yankees. The Texas Rangers are 0-3 against the Yankees, meaning that they would have a winning record otherwise.

The Mariners’ schedule has been the easiest, with eight games against the likes of the Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, and Chicago White Sox, although they are only 5-3 in those games. They haven’t been tested against the tougher American League East teams.

Taking just the raw statistics, without allowing for strength of schedule, Oakland has above-average pitching, as usual, and for a change, average hitting. No one division rival dominates Oakland in both categories.

Seattle has comparable pitching but worse hitting. Los Angeles is the reverse; worse pitching, comparable hitting. Texas is slightly worse than Oakland in both categories.

We’ll have a better idea of how things stand after Oakland plays the Texas Rangers next week. Those three games could confirm, or undermine, Oakland’s lead. Until then, my money is on the A’s.

Oakland’s advantages so far are small, but very real, given its tougher schedule. The tiny gap between it and its opponents may widen when the latter have to face the tougher competition.

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The New York Mets are in first place in the National League East, just ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. But the true test of their mettle will be in the upcoming series against the Phillies—that is likely to either confirm, or deny, the Mets’ leadership.

Apart from the half game differential, the two teams have similar records, 13-9 vs. 12-9. But based on strength of schedule and recent momentum, all the energy lies with the Mets at this point.

The Mets have been on a roll, winning their last three series against the Chicago Cubs, the Atlanta Braves, and Los Angeles Dodgers. Playing in the three different divisions they lost only one game to the Cubs in a 9-1 stretch.

The Phillies got off to a strong start, in part by feasting off the Houston Astros, the “sick man” of the National League Central. But their recent record is only 4-6, with series losses against Arizona and San Francisco, two middling Western Division teams.

The teams are otherwise well balanced, coming into the series—between runs scored and runs allowed, the Phillies have been more prolific on one side, and profligate on the other.

The question mark for both teams is hitting.

The Mets’ rookie, Ike Davis, has been a sensation, (and largely responsible for the recent surge), but he’s too new to be more than a question mark at this point. Of the veterans, only Jeff Francoeur is performing slightly above his historical pace.

On the other hand, Luis Castillo, David Wright, Jason Bay, (the Pirates’ former star), Jose Reyes, and Angel Pagan have all been hitting below their career averages, leading to subpar batting numbers for the Mets. Perhaps if the Mets are winning despite this fact, it’s a sign that things will only get better from here.

For the Phillies, Jayson Werth, Placido Polanco, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utely are all hitting well. But former stars Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez are off their pace. And Jimmy Rollins is on the disabled list. 

Both teams will pitch their aces, Johan Santana and Roy Halladay respectively, on different days. Of the two, Halladay will likely have tougher opposition from Mike Pelfrey than Santana will have from Jamie Moyer, but the aces are still favorites to win on their respective days.

The tiebreaker game may well be tonight’s. featuring an emerging Jon Niese against Kyle Kendrick, who can’t pitch a normal starter’s innings.

Assuming that all three games are played (no postponements because of the weather), one or the other team will emerge from this series on top, as of the first month of baseball. And it will give a “first view” of what the rest of the season might look like.

This is what the various possible win totals could mean for the Mets:

Three wins: This would be an awesome result in Citizens’ Bank Park, one that would clearly show who’s on top, at least for now.

Two wins: The Mets clearly have an “edge,” winning two of out three in Philly. Assuming that they can do the same or better in a rematch in Citifield, they’re in clover.

One win: This would be a “par” result for the Mets on the other team’s home turf. They would leave Philadelphia half a game behind, rather than half a game ahead, but still very much in a neck-and-neck race when the next series returns home.

No wins: The recent surge might have been an aberration, and the Mets are probably outclassed.

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