Kuzul

I saw a report on mlbtraderumors.com today that the Cubs have decided to place Carlos Zambrano on the Restricted List the way they did with Milton Bradley late last season.  Zambrano will reportedly not be back in a Cubs’ uniform until at least the All-Star Break, because the Cubs want Zambrano to get anger-management counseling.

I can’t help but notice that within a day or two of Zambrano blowing up in the dugout, because he apparently felt first baseman Derrek Lee hadn’t made enough effort on a ground ball by Juan Pierre that went for a double, the Rays’ Evan Longoria got in B. J. Upton’s face in the dugout about Upton’s perceived lack of hustle in center field and was praised by Buster Olney as providing much-needed leadership.

Context is everything, I guess.  Zambrano has a well-earned reputation for being a hot-head, Upton has a reputation for not always hustling, and both Longoria and Lee have generally good reputations.  Still, you have what amounts to the basically the same conduct and the same circumstances (player on under-performing team starts argument over perceived lack of hustle by a teammate), but Longoria comes out a hero while Zambrano is placed on the Restricted List.

Something doesn’t seem quite right about the two diametrically opposed outcomes.

I also saw a report that next year’s arbitration eligible super-two players (i.e. 17 percent of players with less than three but more than two years who have the most service time are arbitration eligible under MLB’s collective bargaining agreement) are expected to have the lowest cutoff for service time that will make them arbitration eligible.

To be eligible for arbitration last offseason, super-two’s needed at least two years and 139 days of major league service time, and the cutoff has never been below two years and 130 days.  However, it looks like only two years and 123 to 125 days will be needed for the coming offseason.

No surprise there.  Teams are keeping young players in the minors longer to limit their service time for purposes of arbitration and free-agent eligibility.  Since the formula is a strict percentage (17 percent) of all players between two and three years of service time, less service time for more players means a lower super-two cutoff.  I don’t see this trend abating any time soon, as teams work harder and harder to prevent potential young stars from obtaining super-two status.

The Giants are reported to have significant interest in Royals David DeJesus and Jose Guillen.  I can’t say I’m particularly excited by the idea of the Giants obtaining either player.

Jose Guillen has 13 HRs and 47 RBIs so far this year, but he’s always been way overrated as an offensive player.  Specifically, in only two of his eleven seasons with at least 300 plate appearances, he has had an OPS above .825, and those two seasons were more than five years ago (2003 & 2004) when he was 27 and 28, exactly the age at which you would expect a player of his type to peak and then decline.

Guillen does not look like any kind of an improvement over what the Giants already have in Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell.  There’s a possibility that in jumping leagues Guillen could get hot like Randy Winn did in 2005.  However, I think the odds are far better that Guillen could go cold, like Ryan Garko last year or Shea Hillenbrand in 2006.

In fact, Guillen reminds me an awful lot of Hillenbrand.  They’re the same age (both 34 this year), and while Guillen has had a much longer major league career (Hillenbrand appears to be out of professional baseball already), Guillen’s career .764 OPS looks an awful lot like Hillenbrand’s career .761.

The only thing that might make Guillen attractive to a team with more money than sense is that the Royals are reportedly willing to eat a good portion of Guillen’s remaining contract and expect mediocre prospects in return.

David DeJesus is having a fine season (.332 batting average and .880 OPS at present), and while he doesn’t have the power the Giants are looking for, they would certainly benefit from his ability to get on base and not hit into a lot of double-plays.  However, the Royals are looking for a top-flight prospect package in return.

If the Giants are going to give up a top-flight prospect package, I’d sure prefer it if they received someone like Prince Fielder, a genuine top-flight offensive player, in return.

In a final note of all’s well that ends well, Casey Fien, a 26-year-old right-handed relief pitcher, was just called up to the Tigers after posting a 2.27 ERA in 26 games and 39.1 IP at AAA Toledo.

Fien got burned by the waiver rules last spring.  After two strong seasons in the high minors in 2008 and 2009, he was just good enough to get claimed when the Tigers tried to slip him through waivers, but not good enough to stick with the teams claiming him.

The Red Sox initially claimed him and then put him back on waivers, when they needed a space on their 40-man roster for another player.  Then the Blue Jays did essentially the same thing.

Fien ended up signing a minor league deal with the Tigers, just as the Tigers had hoped to accomplish when they first put Fien on waivers.  All the bouncing around between fickle organizations interfered with Fien’s ability to pitch in Spring Training and possibly make a major league club opening the season.

He’s now earned another opportunity, and I hope he makes the best of it.  At 26, Fien’s chances of a successful major league career aren’t great, but he looks like a major league pitcher right now, and he’s going to get his shot, since the Tigers are going to have to use everyone in their bullpen going forward as they battle the Twins in the AL Central.

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In keeping with today’s theme inspired by Dustin Pedroia’s three home run game against the Rockies, here is a list of every player to have hit three or more home runs in a major league game .

You will note that three home run games have been particularly common in the last 20 years, when the PED-fueled offensive barrage reached its peak.

The original “Big Cat” Johnny Mize and Sammy Sosa are the all-time leaders with six different three home run games each. Joe Carter, Dave Kingman, Mark McGwire, and Carlos Delgado each hit three or more in five different games.

Babe Ruth is still the only player to have two three home run games in the post-season, let alone the World Series.

Pending Carlos Delgado’s return (he will reportedly be ready to return from his second hip surgery in June if anyone is interested—I hope so, as he’s only 27 HRs short of 500, and he hit 38 HRs as recently as 2008), Albert Pujols is the active leader with four three-home run games.

In the Dead Ball Era between 1900 and 1920, not one player hit three home runs in a major league game.

Interestingly, Babe Ruth did not have a three home run game in any of the four years (1919, 1920, 1921, and 1927) in which he set the single season HR record.  Nor did Roger Maris (or for that matter, Mickey Mantle) in 1961.

Mark McGwire did it twice, and Sammy Sosa once in 1998, the year they decimated the old HR record.  Barry Bonds did it twice in 2001, and Sosa three more times that same year.  The feat was accomplished a ridiculous 22 times in 2001, the year with the most three home run games.

George Bell (1988), Tuffy Rhodes (1994), and Dmitri Young (2005) had their big days on Opening Day.

Now’s a good time for a trivia question: Who are the only two major league players to hit five home runs in a double-header?  This is a record that will probably never be matched again, since MLB teams no longer schedule double-headers.

In a final note, Christian Guerrero, a 30-year-old outfielder with the Gary-Southshore Railcats of the Independent A Northern League and a cousin of Major Leaguers Wilton and Vladimir Guerrero, hit home runs in five consecutive at-bats in a June 9, 2010 double header against the Rockford RiverHawks.  According to the Northern League’s press release announcing Guerrero Player of the Week for the week ending June 13th, this is only the second time in professional baseball that a player has ever hit home runs in five consecutive at-bats, the first time being by Corey Parker on the Bangor Blue Ox of the now-defunct Northeast League.

I kind of suspect that someone else did it in the minors at some time between 1920 and 1970, but I don’t have the information at hand to prove it.

Answer to the trivia question: Stan “The Man” Musial for the Cardinals against the New York Giants on May 2, 1954, and Nate Colbert for the Padres against the Atlanta Braves on August 1, 1972.  Colbert was from St. Louis and claims to have personally attended the game in which Musial first accomplished the feat.   Whether or not he actually did, it’s a great story.

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Almost as surely as flowers bloom in the spring, great young hitters slump in their second full seasons in the major leagues.  Well, maybe not with that much certainty, but it’s probably more common than not, particularly if you include a few spill-over stars who slumped significantly in their third (Chipper Jones in 1997) or fourth full seasons (Barry Bonds in 1989).

Here are a few good examples: ARod’s 1997 season (career full-season low .846 OPS), Albert Pujol’s 2002 season (career full-season lows of .314 batting average, .394 on-base percentage, and .561 slugging—those are some pretty terrific career lows), and Jeff Bagwell’s 1992 (his .273 batting average and .812 OPS were the lowest of his career until his very last two seasons).

The conventional wisdom on this phenomenon is that baseball at the major league level is a game of adjustments, and after a great young hitter comes into the league and batters pitching staffs for a season, the league’s pitchers and scouts come into year two with a much better idea where the young hitter’s weaknesses lie.  If the young hitter is truly destined to be great, he makes the necessary adjustments in his slump year and goes on to greater glory as he moves toward his age 26-to-31 peak seasons (barring major injuries along the way).

The Panda is slumping big-time so far in 2010.  After entering the 2010 season with career numbers (in roughly 1.25 seasons of play) of .333 batting average, .381 on-base percentage and .543 slugging, Sandoval’s 2010 numbers so far are .282, .343 and .435.  Those are huge drops, although the 2010 season is only about 40 percent of the way through.

The cause of Panda’s 2010 slump is obvious: he’s a free swinger, and the NL’s pitchers have better learned how to set him up to swing at pitches out of the strike zone, on which Panda’s odds of getting a hit or an extra base hit are sharply diminished.

Panda has already earned a reputation, perhaps second only to Vladimir Guerrero or Ichiro among those currently playing, as a great bad-ball hitter.  Nonetheless, no matter how good he is at hitting pitches out of the strike zone, any pitcher will tell you he’d rather take his chances with Sandoval swinging at balls rather than at strikes.

I’m pretty confident that Sandoval will make the necessary adjustments by the time the 2010 season is in the books.  First, even with his major slump so far this year, he’s still hitting well for a player who doesn’t turn 24 until August.

Second, Sandoval has made tremendous progress in his ability to lay off bad pitches and draw walks in a very short period of time.  In 2008, the year Sandoval broke into the majors, he drew only 35 walks in 593 professional at-bats that year.  His previous high before that was 22 walks in 438 at-bats in the Class A Sally League in 2006.

In 2009, his break-through year, Sandoval took enough pitches to draw 52 walks in 572 major league at-bats.  While that’s certainly not great and one has to keep in mind that he hit so well last year that pitchers were pitching around him a lot, it’s still a tremendous improvement over prior years and a solid performance for a young, bad-ball hitter.  He also drew more walks in the second half of the 2009 campaign when he was obviously seeing fewer pitches to hit.

So far in 2010, Panda has drawn 24 walks in 255 at-bats.  This isn’t terrible, but Panda needs to improve on it enough that pitchers are forced to come into him with strikes.

For what it’s worth, here’s a Tim Kurkjian article from 2002 which lists some of the All-Time best bad ball hitters in baseball history.  I remembered Yogi Berra and Roberto Clemente, but not some of the others on the list, which was why I went trolling on-line and found Kurkjian’s article.

Based on the fact that both Tony Gwynn and Ichiro made Kurkjian’s list, I would bet that Rod Carew and Paul Waner deserve to be on the list too, being similar kinds of hitters.

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Florida Marlins:

In a move which makes me think there’s more to it than performance, the Marlins have designated 27-year-old, left-handed reliever Renyel Pinto for assignment in order to call up 27-year-old, right-handed reliever Tim Wood.  What’s strange about this move is that Pinto has a 2.70 ERA in 20 appearances with a line of 16.2 innings pitched, 16 hits, one home run, nine walks, and 16 strikeouts.  It’s hard to understand why the Marlins would dump a player like that, because Pinto appears to be out of options, and someone will almost certainly claim him.

Even the Miami Herald doesn’t understand the move.  They suggest that Pinto is being made a scapegoat.

I’ll say this: Even with minimal knowledge of the Marlins, I can guess why Pinto frustrates a lot of people.  First, while he’s got great stuff (222 strikeouts in 231 major league innings pitched), he’s also incredibly wild (152 career walks).  He’s a left-handed short man, but he doesn’t get left-handed hitters out (.775 OPS lifetime against left-handed hitters, but only .656 OPS against right-handed hitters—one of the larger reverse platoon differentials you’ll see).

Pinto also appears not to take training as seriously as he could—two sources list his current dimensions as 6’4″ and a whopping 280 lbs.  Miami is famed for its nightlife, and I’d wager a guess that Pinto enjoys more than his fair share of it.

Still, the guy they called up, Wood, hasn’t impressed many in previous Major League opportunities and, although he’s right-handed, he isn’t likely to pitch any better against right-handed hitters than Pinto has in the past.

Pittsburgh Pirates:

Now that they’ve called up Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez, the Pirates have designated Akinori Iwamura for assignment.  The reports have it that the Pirates are desperate to trade Iwamura and will eat much of his remaining 2010 salary to do it.

I still like Iwamura (pictured above).  Despite his struggles adjusting to the National League this year (not every player benefits from the transition from the Junior to the Senior Circuit), Iwamura has a career Major League on-base percentage of .347, excellent for a 2B.  At age 31, he’s still worth a shot from an American League team if he can be bought cheaply.

Tampa Bay Rays:

1B/DH Ryan Shealy opted out of his contract with the Rays.  He’d spent the year at the Rays’ AAA club, the Durham Bulls, where, despite a feeble .238 batting average, his .866 OPS was good for ninth in the International League.  I don’t know what Shealy’s plans were, but playing on the same team with Dan Johnson—who’s the same age as him (30 years old), second in the IL with a 1.011 OPS, and has the same skill set—left Shealy with almost no chance of making the Rays’ Major League roster this year.

It’s hard to see Shealy getting an offer from a Japanese team, but another Major League organization may be willing to sign him to add depth at the AAA level.

Oakland Athletics:

The A’s have signed RHP Jamie Wright to a minor league deal.  Wright is a player who has always amazed me in terms of his ability to maintain a long Major League career in spite of an apparent lack of talent.  Over the course of fifteen Major League seasons, Wright has compiled an 83-117 record (that’s an awful .415 winning percentage, boys and girls) and a 5.03 career ERA.

That’s pretty poor.  His ratios are equally, or perhaps even more, terrible.  Yet Wright is around year after year.

In fairness, he has pitched most of his Major League career in hitters’ parks (for the Rockies, Royals and Rangers).  Also, Wright was once a first-round draft pick (28th overall in the 1993 Draft), and he looks like a pitcher (he’s listed as 6’6″ and 230 lbs).  I’ve always gotten the impression that, once Wright established himself as a Major Leaguer, he earned the benefit of the doubt, meaning that he got the call when it was him and someone else on the bubble to be sent down.

Also, Wright was a starter for much of his career (obviously not a very effective one)—his team’s fifth starter.  Adding to my opinion that Wright’s career largely resulted from a misguided reputation is that fact that his minor league numbers aren’t impressive either—specifically, a 4.08 career minor league ERA.

Sometimes, the impression you create is everything.

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Here are some of the best-looking prospects still playing in the AAA Pacific Coast League after the recent wave of major league promotions.

OF Alex Gordon and 1B Kila Ka’aihue (both 26, Royals)

Neither Gordon nor Ka’aihue are exactly “prospects,” since they are now both 26 years old.  However, both are really too good to be playing in the PCL as I write this.

The Royals, the rocket scientists of MLB, have soured on Gordon, and are now trying to convert him into an outfielder at the AAA level. 

New Royals manager Ned Yost was quoted yesterday as saying the Royals don’t plan to call up Gordon and his 1.148 AAA OPS to the majors until the Royals can find a place for him to play every day.

This begs the question; who exactly do the Royals (a team that’s nine games below .500, in fourth place in their division, 9.5 games back of first place, and has no real chance of making the post season unless both Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander are seriously injured, and the entire Twins’ roster dies in a plane crash) have that’s too good for Alex Gordon to take his place? 

No one that I can see.

Ka’aihue (I’ll call him KK) isn’t as good a player as Gordon, and he’s stuck behind Billy Butler, who is two years younger.  Still, he can hit with power and get on base.

The Royals need to move David DeJesus and Jose Guillen, who are playing well enough that they might actually get something of value in return, and call up Gordon and KK to take their places on the major league roster.

Catchers J. P. Arencibia (Blue Jays) and Josh Donaldson (A’s)

These two 24 year old catchers are getting close.  Arencibia has an .878 OPS, and Donaldson an .844.

Donaldson got a cup of coffee from the A’s earlier this year and didn’t hit (he went 4-for-26).  He’s slumping right now (hitting .194 in his last ten AAA games), but still looks very promising.

Arencibia is red hot right now (.385 batting average and 1.261 OPS in his last ten games), and I would expect him to be the first player on this list promoted to the majors. He’s got a lot of power and hits for a decent average. 

My only concern is that he is not a patient hitter. Arencibia has only 15 walks to go with 45 strikeouts so far this year, and has had even worse ratios in prior minor league seasons.  Still, a catcher with power is a valuable thing.

2B Brock Bond (Giants) and 1B Mark Trumbo (Angels)

I’ve lumped these two together because they’re both 24 years old, and neither seems to get much respect from the teams that control them.

Bond has no power to speak of, but he’s young and his .420 on-base percentage is the fifth highest in the PCL.  Middle infielders who get on base have value, yet I can’t remember the last time anyone in the Giants organization said anything to the effect that Bond is a great prospect.

I suspect Bond’s defense isn’t very good, because this is the second year his offensive abilities have been pronounced.  He led the Eastern League in batting average (.333) and OBP (.429) in 2009.

Mark Trumbo has 15 HRs and an .860 OPS, but the Angels didn’t feel the need to promote him, even since they learned that Kendry Morales will be out for the year. 

His faults are more obvious to me, however.  He has only 13 walks and 54 strikeouts in 235 AAA at-bats this year. 

He isn’t likely to have an adequate OBP for a first baseman at the major league level at this point.  It’s definitely something he’s got to work on, because the power is there.

1B Chris Davis (24, Rangers)  

After having played his way out of the majors, Davis is hitting well at AAA Oklahoma City, where he has a .900 OPS after 45 games.  He needs more time in AAA to find his stroke again, but he’s still young enough that he could be back in the major leagues for good by 2011 and still have a successful major league career.

A few other position players who deserve mention here are C Hank Conger (22); 3B Brett Wallace, C Jason Castro, and 1B Chris Carter (23); 3B Matt Mangini, 2B Eric Sogard, and CF Luis Durango (24); and LF Chris Lubanksi (25). 

However, they all look to need more time at AAA before they’ll be ready.

Here are the PCL’s most promising starters who haven’t yet received the call.

RHP Jay Jackson (22, Cubs)

He’s only 3-5, but has a 2.90 ERA and a 3:1 K/BB ratio.

LHP Madison Bumgarner (20, Giants)   

Bumgarner is now 7-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 2.4:1 K/BB ratio.  Madison was simply awful his first two starts of the PCL season, but has had an ERA right around 2.00 in his eleven starts since then.  Everyone in San Francisco expects that Bumgarner will be pitching in majors before the September call-ups and perhaps as early as the All-Star Break.

LHP Michael Kirkman (23, Rangers)  

He’s 6-1 with a 3.11 ERA and leads the PCL with 70 Ks.  However, he’s also second in the PCL with 41 walks allowed, which means he still needs to work on his command before he’s major league-ready.

RHP Brandon Dickson (25, Cardinals)

At age 25, Dickson is starting to push it as a prospect.  However, he’s having a fine year for Memphis, going 7-3 with a 2.93 ERA and a better than 2:1 K/BBs ratio.

Dickson was undrafted out of college, and this is by far the best season of his career to date.  Still, he isn’t old yet, and he’s performing well at the highest level of the minors, so he’s got a shot.

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I’m sure you’ve heard the Pirates have finally decided to call up third baseman Pedro Alvarez.  In the last month Neil Walker, Brad Lincoln, Jose Tabata, and now Alvarez have gotten the call.

The future starts now in Pittsburgh.

Who else is left in Triple-A who’s young enough to be a prospect and actually playing well enough to get serious consideration for a promotion to the show? 

Here are my thoughts, starting with the Triple-A International League.

Offensive Prospects

As might be expected, most of the top Triple-A offensive performers so far in 2010 who have not been promoted to the majors are the usual Quad-A players who are too old to get a shot, unless some people get hurt at the major league level. 

In the International League, these guys include Dan Johnson (age 30, his 1.011 OPS is currently second in the IL, after C Carlos Santana, who was recently promoted to the Indians), Mike Hessman (age 32, .985 OPS, good for third place), and Chris Richard (age 36, .952 OPS, good for fourth).

I have a soft spot in my heart for Quad-A players, because they’re the ones who give Triple-A ball the level of play necessary to produce young stars and replacement level players when someone gets hurt at the major league level. 

But enough about the geezers—let’s get on to the prospects.

3B Dayan Viciedo (age 21, White Sox)

Viciedo looks to be the best, closest-to-major-league ready position prospect left in the International League after the promotion of Pedro Alvarez.  The ChiSox signed him in 2008 to a four-year, $10 million deal as a free agent after he defected from Cuba.

Viciedo is a huge man, listed at 5’11″ and 240 lbs already, which kind of makes me wonder if he really is only 21.  However old he is, he’s close to being major-league ready.  His .843 OPS is good for 15th in the IL, and he’s hit 13 HRs and 27 extra base hits so far in 2010.

The biggest concern with Viciedo is his horrible eight walks and 52 strikeouts.  He’s not going to succeed for long in the majors with a Ks-to-walks ratio like that.

Viciedo definitely needs more time at Triple-A, but if he improves on his current numbers, there’s a good chance he’ll be promoted before the September call-ups.

Catcher Tyler Flowers (age 24, White Sox) 

Flowers has a fine (for a catcher) .825 OPS in the IL, but he is batting only .228.  He’s close to being major league ready, but he needs to pull his Triple-A batting average up over .250 or .260 before he’ll be ready for a promotion.

SS Eduardo Nunez (age 23, Yankees)

His .322 batting average is good for second in the IL, and he has a fine (for a middle infielder) on-base percentage of .362.  He had a strong year at Double-A Trenton in 2009.

Of course, Nunez is stuck behind Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano in New York, so you have to think there’s a good chance Nunez will end up as a trade chip around the August 1st trade deadline as the Yankees look to plug holes for the stretch drive.

CF Michael Brantley (age 23, Indians)

Brantley’s .385 OBP is good for ninth in the IL, behind numerous Quad-A players and true prospects who’ve already been promoted to the majors.

Brantley got a cup of coffee from the Indians earlier this year in which he hit only .156.  However, that was in only 32 ABs, which isn’t particularly indicative of anything.

With Grady Sizemore’s season ended prematurely by injury/surgery, the Indians are playing Trevor Crowe in center.  Crowe is a former first-round draft pick (14th in 2005), but he’s three years older than Brantley, and doesn’t look like a future star.

My guess would be that once the Indians start trading away veterans, Brantley gets called up again at sometime between the All-Star break and August 1st.

Pitching Prospects

Identifying pitching prospects tends to be a little more complicated than identifying position players, because pitchers with live arms sometimes suddenly find their command or develop a new pitch, which makes them potential major league regulars even if they are already in the mid- or late-20s.

Here are some of the young starters in the International League having fine seasons.

RHP Jeremy Hellickson (age 23, Rays)

Hellickson is young and pitching great.  He’s 8-2 with a 2.42 ERA and a line of 81.2 IP, 71 hits, three HRs, and 20 walks and 84 Ks.  He looks ready to be a major league pitcher right now.

LHP Aroldis Chapman (age 22, Reds)

He’s pitching well, but I don’t think he’s ready yet.  He has a 4.22 ERA and 70 Ks in 59.2 IP, but he’s been wildly inconsistent, having starts in the last 10 in which he’s given up six, eight, and seven earned runs in five or fewer innings pitched.

Chapman still does not appear to have major league command, having allowed 36 walks to date. 

If I were the Reds, I’d keep him at Triple-A Louisville until the September call-ups or until he can put together five strong starts in a row with low walk totals, whichever comes first.

RHP Ivan Nova (age 23, Yankees)

Nova is 5-2 with a 3.42 ERA and a line of 71 IP, 73 hits, 5 HRs, and 25 walks allowed and 53 Ks.  He made two appearances for the Yankees earlier this season and did not allow a run in three innings pitched.

Nova’s close to being ready, but it remains to be seen whether the Yankees have the patience to try to develop him or instead use him as a trade chip.

LHP Travis Wood (age 23, Reds)

Wood is 4-5 with a 3.56 ERA, but what I like about him, aside from his tender age, is his 81 Ks and only 20 walks allowed in 83.1 Triple-A innings pitched this year. 

He’s yet another fine IL pitcher only four or five consecutive strong starts from a major league job.

RHP Dan Hudson (age 23, White Sox)

Hudson is 8-3 with a 3.91 ERA and excellent ratios, including 86 Ks and only 21 walks allowed in 71.1 IP.  His ERA is little high because he’s served up 10 gopher balls.

There have been some other pitchers like Josh Tomlin, Matt Maloney, Carlos Torres, and Todd Redmond, who have pitched well in the IL this year and could be called up if they get hot in the second half. 

However, I think I’ve captured the most promising prospects in terms of age and current performance.

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I plan to write a more thorough run-down of the Giants’ minor league performers around the All-Star break, but I thought I’d give you a few of the highlights at the moment.

AAA Fresno Grizzlies: Now that John Bowker is safely back at AAA and playing every day, he’s thumping the ball again.  After eight games, he’s hitting .382 with a 1.023 OPS.

With the addition of Pat Burrell and Buster Posey at least temporarily having pushed Aubrey Huff into the outfield, there’s no place for Bowker to play at the major league level.

In the short term, that’s okay, because after his poor and infrequent performance in San Francisco, he needs a few weeks of regular play to get his timing and confidence back.  In the long term, it’s tough for Bowker, who’s looking more and more like a 4-A player who will need to go to Japan to have a truly successful professional career.  On July 8, Bowker turns 27, roughly the point when a player loses prospect status.

As I’m sure you know, LHP Madison Bumgarner (pictured above) didn’t get the call-up when Todd Wellemeyer got hurt.  Instead, the Giants went with RHP Joe Martinez.

The Giants said the decision was based primarily on the fact that Martinez will be ready to start when Wellemeyer’s now vacant slot in the rotation comes up tomorrow night—not on Bumgarner’s recent short suspension.

Bumgarner had to be physically restrained from going after an umpire after a base runner was called safe on a pick-off play to first base.  As he was leaving the field, Bumgarner fired a ball into the outfield.  He was suspended by the Pacific Coast League for three games and the Giants fined him as well.  Bumgarner has since apologized, blaming his competitive nature, and it is doubtful the episode will have any lasting repercussions—unless Bumgarmer has similar melt-downs in the future.

Their numbers for the season are very similar. However, after getting battered around in his first two starts this season, Bumgarner has pitched better than Joe Martinez.  Since those two awful performances, Bumgarner has gone 6-0 with a 1.89 ERA with a line of 62 IP, 54 hits, two HRs, 18 walks, and 41 Ks.

Most likely, the Giants want to bring Bumgarner along slowly since he’s still only 20 years old.  Also, the Giants see this as a brief call-up for only one or two starts until Wellemeyer comes off the DL.  Martinez is the more mature pitcher (in multiple ways), and I’m sure the Giants would like to give Martinez at least another opportunity or two after he got hurt last year (he was hit in the head by a line drive) and missed most of the 2009 season.

Obviously, Bumgarner is the one with the real major league future ahead of him, but it’s safe to say that the Giants want to make sure he’s really ready before they call him up for good.

I’m still high on 2B Brock Bond and RHP Steve Edlefsen.  Bond has no power, and I’ve heard little about his defense, but he presently has a .421 on-base percentage and he doesn’t turn 25 until September.  A middle infielder who gets on base like that is a legitimate prospect.

It’s not a fluke.  Bond hit .333 with a .429 OBP last year in the pitcher-friendly Eastern League, leading the league in both categories.  If the Giants can’t find a roster space for Bond at the major league level fairly soon, he looks for all the world like the kind of player the A’s would be happy to take off the Giants’ hands.

Edlefsen now has a 1.16 ERA with a line of 38.2 IP, 28 hits, two HRs, 13 walks, and 32 Ks.  Playing in the hitter-friendly PCL, he looks ready for a major league opportunity.

AA Richmond Flying Squirrels: The best news out of Richmond, as I see it, is that youngsters Thomas Neal and Brandon Crawford are finally starting to do something with the bat this year.

So far, Richmond seems to be as difficult a place to hit as Norwich, Connecticut was in prior years as the Giants’ AA outpost.  After sticking right around .700, Crawford and Neal have pulled their OPS numbers up to .742 and .739, respectively.  Not particularly impressive, but with SS Crawford still only 23 and LF Neal not turning 23 until August 17, they still look like prospects, particularly if they can continue to improve as the 2010 season progresses.

A+ San Jose Giants: The most exciting San Jose Giant at present is 1B Brandon Belt.  After 63 games, Belt is hitting .382 with a ridiculous .500 OBP and an impressive .599 SLG.  Belt was the Giants’ 5th round pick in the 2009 MLB Draft out of the University of Texas, and he’s only 22 this year, so the Giants may have found themselves a diamond in the rough.

It’s definitely time for the Giants to promote Belt to AA Richmond to see if he’s really a legitimate prospect.  He doesn’t look to have anything left to prove at the A+ level.

The only real knock on Belt so far is that he’s hit just six HRs at San Jose.  However, he’s still young, and he has 32 extra-base hits in 212 at-bats, so I don’t think the lack of HRs is a concern at this point in his professional career.  Belt is listed at 6’5″ and 195 lbs, so he may yet grow into his power.

If Belt is for real, he could really help the Giants in a couple of years, when Buster Posey will presumably be their everyday catcher.  From what I recall hearing on draft day, Belt also has a good glove at first base.

A Augusta GreenJackets: The player who has caught my eye at Class A Augusta so far this season is 20-year-old Nicaraguan pitcher Jorge Bucardo.  After 12 starts, he’s 6-2 with a 1.57 ERA.  His pitching line is 74.1 IP, 47 hits, two HRs, 23 walks, and 70 Ks.  It’s hard not to like those numbers.

Bucardo is listed at 6’1″ and only 155 pounds, so you have to have a little concern about how his arm will hold up now that he’s pitching in long-season leagues.  However, he appears to have had no previous arm problems, making between 11 and 15 starts a year the last three seasons in short-season leagues, and he’s pitched well enough to accumulate 192 professional innings entering this season without any injuries.

Jorge’s older brother, Wilber, has also pitched well for the Giants the last few seasons in the low minors.  However, Jorge is the one, based on his strikeout numbers, who looks like the real prospect going forward.

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Mlbtraderumors. com reports that the Twins and Rangers are the two teams rumored to be most interested in acquiring Mike Lowell from the Red Sox.  Makes sense to me.

The Rangers were reported to have strong interest in Lowell this offseason, but nothing got done.

Apparently this was because of the Rangers’ current financial problems (the rumors I recall had the Rangers agreeing to pay $2.5 to $3.0 million of the $12 million owed by the BoSox to Lowell in 2010 and the Sox receiving one or two B-grade prospects) and also because of on-going concerns about whether or not Lowell’s right thumb had really healed after he had surgery on it this offseason.

After tonight’s game, Lowell is only hitting .215 with a .666 OPS.  However, he hasn’t been playing much, with Adrian Beltre, Kevin Youkilis, and David Ortiz all healthy and performing well.

Even with Lowell’s poor production so far, it would be an improvement over what the Twins have been getting out of third base so far this season—a. 211 batting average and a .562 OPS.

My guess is that the Twins will be the winner of this bidding war, unless another team steps in.  The Red Sox strongest interest in unloading Lowell is finding someone to take off their hands as much of the $7.4 million remaining on his 2010 contract as possible.  With the Rangers still in financial limbo, and the Twins suddenly flush from their new ballpark, the Twins are obviously the team that can take on more salary in a deal.

The Twins have long been known as penny-pitchers, but with their new stadium, they have jumped to six highest average per game attendance in MLB.  They’re in first place, but this is definitely a season where it is in their interest to spend what it takes to win. 

Whatever they spend in money to take on veterans to fill holes this season, they are likely to make back in season ticket sales for 2011 if they do, in fact, make the playoffs this year.

My guess would be that if the Twins are willing to take on somewhere between $2.5 million to $3.5 million of Lowell’s remaining 2010 salary, they’d get Lowell in exchange for a very low quality player to be named later.

The Rangers will likely have to give a prospect of some potential value to get Lowell since they won’t be able to take on salary the way the Twins can at the moment.  However, if the Twins are willing to take on $3 million of Lowell’s remaining salary, I doubt the Rangers would give up a prospect of that value for a four month rental of Mike Lowell.

For what it’s worth, whoever ends of being the high bidder for the Rangers will probably make a killing if they can hold on to the team for ten years.  With the economy where it is right now, the value of major league teams has to be way down, because there just aren’t a lot of people around with $500 million to spend on a franchise, particularly when there are an awful lot of other bargains around for the purchasing.

Meanwhile, the Rangers play in a large market in a nice ballpark in a baseball-mad state with great baseball weather.  With good management and some success on the field, the franchise should be worth a whole more in 10 years than whatever the present market will bear.

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The current conventional wisdom is that the AL is the better of the two major leagues.  The Giants seem to be taking advantage of this fact.

Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, Pat Burrell, and Santiago Casilla are all AL cast-offs who seem to have rediscovered their old glory coming (or returning) to the NL.  In the case of Burrell and Casilla, in particular, the sample sizes are too small to draw any firm conclusions.  However, even with them, the changes have been so dramatic that they’re worth commenting on.

Juan Uribe, in his five seasons with the White Sox from age 25 through 29, had the following OPS numbers: .833, .713, .698, .678, and .682.  That looks an awful lot like a one-way ticket to palookaville.

Yet upon arriving in San Francisco, Uribe had .824 OPS last season and an .836 OPS so far in 2010.  At age 31 this season, Uribe isn’t yet past his prime years.  Also, his numbers could drop suddenly going forward this year, just as Aaron Rowand’s have in the last month.  Still, the change is striking.

Aubrey Huff is 33 this year, which is definitely past his prime years, but not so old that he couldn’t be having a last-hurrah season.  In 2008 at age 31, Huff had a .912 OPS, the second highest of his career, for the Orioles.  Last year, his OPS fell to an awful-for-a-first baseman .694.

Yet after tonight’s two-home run performance against the A’s, Huff has a .926 OPS so far in 2010.  Now, I don’t expect Huff to have a .926 OPS come season’s end.  Nonetheless, the change is striking.

In Pat Burrell’s last year with the Phillies, he had an .874 OPS.  With the Rays last year, his OPS plummeted to .682, and this year in limited playing time, his OPS fell again to .625, at which point the Rays released him.  So far as a Giant, Burrell has a 1.054 OPS.  Sure, it’s only 24 at-bats as a Giant, but the change is again striking.

In his three seasons as a regular reliever for the A’s, Santiago Casilla had ERAs of 4.44, 3.93, and 5.96 last season, which caused the A’s to send him packing.  In 12 2010 appearances for the Giants, Casilla has an 0.96 ERA with two saves, four walks, and 15 Ks in 9.1 IP.  It’s an extremely small sample size, and the A’s arguably gave up too soon on Casilla—who throws extremely hard—but the change is striking.

The most reasonable theories I’ve heard for why the AL is the better league, is that the best teams in the AL are the wealthiest in baseball, and the worst teams are not as bad as the worst teams in the NL.  Another theory I’ve heard is that the NL is a fastball league—teams look for fastball pitchers and hitters who can hit the fastball.  In the AL, pitchers are alleged to throw more breaking balls.

I haven’t seen the data (or read any recent articles by those who have) to render an opinion on the last point.  However, I do suspect that certain players play better in one league than in the other. 

For what it’s worth, Casilla throws a mid-90s fastball, which may account for his sudden success in the NL.  Of course, it could just be that he’s finally found the command that bullet-throwers have more time to find before they start to lose their good fastballs.

Interestingly, Barry Zito, whose famed best pitch is his curveball, is a player who has pitched worse since coming over to the Giants from the AL. 

While I think that Zito’s problems the last two years have more to do with the heavy workloads he had as a starter for six seasons in Oakland (his numbers had started to drop before he left), and the fact that pitching in Oakland, which is one of the best pitchers’ parks in MLB, masked his decline in the seasons immediately before he became a free agent, it’s still obvious that his record in the NL (until this season at least), doesn’t compare to his record in the AL.

The question, I guess, is whether the Giants have recently identified something that has enabled them to pick former AL players likely to have better success in the NL or whether they’ve just been lucky.  I suspect more of the latter than the former.

However, the Giants have been extremely successful the last couple of seasons in identifying cast-off relief pitchers who have really been able to help them: Justin Miller and Brandon Medders last year, and Guillermo Mota, Santiago Casilla, and Denny Bautista in 2010. 

It’s helped to balance out somewhat oft-injured veterans like Mark DeRosa, Freddie Sanchez, and Edgar Renteria, who the Giants have committed way too much money to the last two seasons.

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I love major league baseball.  I’ll grant that NBA basketball, premier league soccer and professional boxing (because of the price you pay if you aren’t good, and except for the fixes) are of similar caliber of talent/ability, but I won’t admit than anyone plays their sport better than MLB players.

Tonight’s game was a lot of fun, particularly because the Giants won.  Lincecum wasn’t perfect in the first inning, but after that, he couldn’t have pitched much better. 

The two most important things in pitching are stuff (velocity and movement) and command (the ability to throw the pitch to where the catcher has set up to receive it).  

If a pitcher can throw the pitch to where the catcher has set up to receive it, he will get the pitch an inch or two off the plate every time.  So long as that pitch isn’t belt high, it’s extraordinarily difficult to hit.

Buster Posey may never leave first base.  He’s a natural baseball player, and he’s a pure hitter.

The Giants need a first baseman, and Posey, after fewer than 50 professional games at the position, is already better defensively than Aubrey Huff, who isn’t as bad as his reputation has it.

First base is a lot like catching:  it’s about foot work and soft hands, and Posey has both.  He played Gold Glove, Albert Pujols 1B tonight on about four different plays.

I want A’s pitcher Tyson Ross to succeed.  He went to high school in Oakland and played college ball at Cal.  He’s only 23 this year and already in the majors.

But he throws too much with his arm.  He’s a big, strong bodied pitcher, but he throws almost entirely with his arm.  I would like to see of a pitcher of his size and strength get his body behind his pitches, but Ross doesn’t. 

His pitches are mostly arm, and I would expect an injury somewhere down the line. He’ll keep throwing the way he’s throwing now, until his arm breaks down, because he’s had success with it, and he gets a lot of ground balls.

In my mind (and I don’t think I’m alone in this), you want to see a big, strong pitcher get his body and legs behind his pitches.

Past martial arts training has led me to believe that the ideal pitching motion is integrated, in the sense that all of the body’s muscles should be contributing to the release point. 

I’ve read that a fastball pitcher can get 3 or 4 mph more on his fastball just from his legs.  Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens are examples.  Watch the way they drop and drive off their back legs.

One of the things I love about watching Tim Lincecum pitch is that he fully understands how to be effectively wild.  In other words, don’t throw the hitters any more pitches in the strike zone than you have to. 

Get that first strike, and then make them swing at your pitches.  One of the best all-time at this was Steve Carlton, who got more swings on pitches way out of the strike zone with his slider than any pitcher I can remember (except the great fastball pitchers like Ryan, Clemens and Jason Schmidt, who could set up hitters to swing at high 90′s fastballs at their eyeballs—no hitters at any level have consistently caught up with that pitch).

Pitching is mostly about changing speeds and changing locations.  That, and stuff and command (if it was really that easy, you and I would be major league 20-game winners). 

Hitters, even at the major league level, can be set up to swing at pitches that aren’t close, so long as the pitcher gets ahead in the count and can put the strike-out pitch where he wants it.

Love Mark Ellis.  Just a professional ballplayer, who’s taken his talents as far as they’ll go.  He’s a middle infielder, who provides just above-average major league defense, gets on base and provides just enough pop, that he’s truly a valuable player.

Tonight’s game was an example of why power is so important to the modern game.  The Giants won on two-run homers by Pat Burrell and Benjie Molina.

Aside from the fact that fans love the long ball, power was discovered to be crucial almost as soon as Babe Ruth began to blast them out consistently. 

As Earl Weaver once famously said, pitching, defense, and the three-run homer will win you a lot of ball games.

The Giants are an old-school team.  They like their veterans who don’t make mistakes and make the right decisions (but, alas, get hurt too often), and they like their tools.

The Giants don’t hit enough three-run homers, because they like their pure hitters, rather than the guys who actually get on base.

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