Kuzul

When Andy Pettitte’s name hits the ballot for the Hall of Fame in five years, the Baseball Writers of America Association (BBWAA) will have a very difficult decision on their hands.  His candidacy touches on so much of what has happened in the last 20 years in baseball. 

The case for Pettitte is built on one simple premise: He has been one of baseball’s biggest winners over his 16-year career. We are talking about five World Series titles in eight trips. We are talking about a career winning percentage of 63 percent and a playoff winning percentage of 65 percent. 

Pettitte retires as the winningest pitcher in postseason history (19 wins). During the period from 1995 to 2009, no major league pitcher accumulated more victories. His 148 wins from 2000 to 2009 were the most in the decade. Pettitte also possessed one of the best pick-off moves in the history of the game. 

Pettitte’s defining season was his sophomore campaign. In 1996, he lead the league in wins (21) was third in win-loss percentage (.724) and was eighth in the AL in ERA (3.87).  He made his first All-Star team and finished second in the AL Cy Young. 

His legacy as a winner was born, however, in the World Series. Game 6 of the World Series was the defining win of the recent Yankee dynasty and the signature victory of his career. Quite simply, the Yankees do not win three titles in four years without Andy Pettitte’s 1-0 victory of future Hall of Famer John Smoltz. 

His consistency can be measured by his 2009 performance. He finished with 14 wins against eight losses, with ERA and WHIP near career norms. More importantly, he was the second starting pitcher in history to win three series-clinching games (ALDS, ALCS and World Series) in the same postseason. In addition, Pettitte won the game where the Yankees clinched the division.

There are many who would dispute his Hall of Fame candidacy. I can see the arguments:

Human Growth Hormone

To those in the BBWAA who would dismiss his candidacy based on his admittance of HGH use, you are all hypocrites. The BBWAA is just as culpable in turning a blind eye towards the Steroid Era.

You cannot, on the one hand, wax poetic about how Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire’s home run chase brought the fans back to baseball after the strike and then take the moral high road and point to them as all that is wrong with the sport. Put them in the Hall of Fame and let their plaques explain the context of the day. It will be their Scarlet Letter.

Milestone Misses

Pettitte falls well short of the 300-win plateau that would bring “automatic” enshrinement. He is light on All-Star and Cy Young finishes. His ERA and WHIP would be near the bottom of pitchers in the Hall of Fame. 

The flip side to the argument is that he won when it mattered. He’s got five World Series rings in eight tries (mirroring his career winning percentage). He’s pitched nearly two full seasons in the playoffs and is the career playoff starts leader and second in World Series starts. 

The Greatness Test

Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com posted an interesting article articulating how Pettitte falls short. 

In response to Matthew’s article, I argue that Pettitte’s Hall of Fame candidacy will only grow as time goes by. Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte are the Core Four.

As distance grows on this recent Yankee dynasty, perspective will change on how instrumental Pettitte (and Posada) were to the Yankees’ championships. 

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This winter Derek Jeter will be paid a lot of money by the New York Yankees. 

The New York Yankees are a team that promotes their history better than any franchise in sports today.  Jeter is the living embodiment of the team’s return to glory.  That makes his value unique to the Yankees, but not to the rest of baseball. 

He will make more money than any other shortstop in baseball in 2011 (and a few years thereafter) and by a significant margin.  This is undeniable.  There is no chance that Jeter or the New York Yankees end in divorce. 

Jeter’s resume speaks for itself.

• Five World Series titles, plus a World Series MVP
• Rookie of the Year
• 12 All-Star Selections
• Four Gold Gloves (no laughing please)
• One ESPY for Play of the Year
• Career Playoff numbers (nearly a full season’s worth of games) mirrors his Career Regular Season numbers – .313 Average / .385 On-Base / .454 Slugging. 
• The No 1. Jersey over the last 15 years. 

We also know that Jeter is on the wrong side of 35 years old and is having his worst season as a professional.  Those two significant statistics should give the Yankees would normally give the Yankees strong leverage in negotiations. 

This is not the case.  There is one final number that is the determining factor in how much the Yankees will pay to retain their shortstop.  That is $33 million. 

We all knew it would come down to Alex Rodriguez. 

That obscene figure is how much A-Rod made in 2010.  This ridiculous contract runs an additional seven years at an average salary of $27 million.  The Yankees already regret signing this contract. 

Now they have more reason to do so. 

Jeter wants to remain at or near the top of the Yankee payroll.  The Yankees cannot see themselves paying nearly $60 million for the left side of the infield indefinitely.  A contentious negotiation is inevitable. 

Or is it?

If I were in the Yankee brain trust, I would make the following offer to Jeter.

• 3 years – $60 million dollars.
  Year 1 – $35 million dollars.  Derek Jeter gets to add another notch on his belt – leagues most expensive player for one year.
  Year 2 and 3 – $12.5 million dollars.  Still more money than the nearest shortstop, but somewhat fiscally responsible.

If Jeter is looking to retire from baseball at the end of this three year deal, this would be a fair offer.  If Jeter is intent on playing until he breaks the hits record (a goal that I strongly believe he is after) that will take him to about 44 and would require a seven year contract.  I would offer.

• Year 1 – $35 million dollars.  The most for one year…
  Year 2 and 3 – $10 million dollars.  Approaching normalcy…
  Years 4 through 7 – $7.5 million dollars.  Normalcy…
  Bonus for the hit record – $25 million.  Worth every penny.  That’s at least two Yankeeography’s and a year of hype at the stadium.  Imagine the merchandising. 

That would put the overall compensation for seven years at $75 million without the bonus, which is financially prudent for the Yankees.  It gives Jeter two giant carrots in the form of that huge checks at the front and the back of the contract. 

More contracts like this would allow the Yankees the opportunity to get their payroll under $200 million sometime in the next few years.

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