Kuzul

Spring is the only time of year that anyone can be underrated. The heat has finally been taken off the hot stove. That means no more winter meetings, free agent tours, salary dumps or round-table discussions. 

No, spring is different. Spring is about sprinkler heads spraying the sod, a bucket of balls poured onto the infield, Beemers in the parking lot and the L-screen being dragged to the mound. It’s for ridiculously high jersey numbers and pitchers loping along the warning track.

The power rankings have vanished like a puff of smoke from a fastball popping a catcher’s mitt, and it’s time for the first pitch.

Still, some teams will be flying under the radar as April arrives, led by pitching staffs not gaining nearly enough attention. Seven stand out as our most underrated pitching staffs in the game.

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Predicting individual leaders in each statistical category is like picking bull stocks from the NASDAQ—everybody has 20/20 hindsight. 

But before reading all the Warren Buffett spring training predictions, keep in mind how many people really bought stock in Apple or Google 10 years ago.

Likewise, who really thought Jose Bautista would hit 54 HRs last year or that Adrian Beltre would lead the American League with 49 doubles?

It seems reasonable to have predicted that Juan Pierre would have led the league in stolen bases, unless you recall that he was a part-time player for two years in Los Angeles before his 2010 renaissance.

As with fantasy projections, there’s no more reliable metric than consistency. But factor in emerging talents, changing team environments and whatever other crazy baseball-only circumstances you want, and we could have a different cast of AL category leaders in 2011.

And so, fearlessly tossing aside any other disclaimers, here are our buy low/sell high predictions for AL statistical leaders in 2011…

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It’s true: The Cardinals without Albert Pujols is like Corn Flakes without the milk. It’s like the Colts without Peyton Manning. It’s like Oney Guillen without his Twitter account. 

But it could happen. Pujols has set a February 19 deadline to strike an extension deal with the Cardinals, and reports say the two sides will need a lot of steam to iron out these differences.

A recent article by Fox’s Ken Rosenthal says that Pujols wants to be recognized as the premier player in baseball, with a contract in excess of Alex Rodriguez’s 10-year, $275 million deal.

However, with Pujols now 31, the Cardinals have to weigh his immense value against the potential downward arc of his career as he approaches his mid to late thirties. Then there’s the financial handcuffs they might wear for the duration of a deal, and the potential for injury, and the pressure to generate revenue if they reach an agreement, and on and on.

One thing is clear—if Pujols walks, it won’t be the end of the Redbird world. There are options for replacing Pujols, and while none of them has the cachet that Pujols wields in the Gateway City, they could keep the Cardinals moving forward after 2011…

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Can you feel that?  Is that the feeling of democracy?  Is that freedom?  No, it’s spring training. As the calendar turns to February and the football season climaxes finally, all eyes turn to Arizona and Florida, anticipating baseball’s long-awaited return.

Think, for just a beautiful second, and you can see it all unfolding—the sprinklers are pattering across the outfield, the Beemers are pulling into the parking lot, the first mitts are popping in poofs of dust.  Lanky pitchers with too-high jersey numbers are loping along the warning track and overweight coaches are stretching into breathable mesh.  The L-screen is being pulled out from the storage shed and somebody spills a bucket of balls onto the infield for the first time.

After months of looking back on the Giants’ improbable Series win, it’s finally time to thaw out from the winter doldrums and spin it forward, to the essential things to watch in spring training 2011…

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With the Cubs placing their crosshairs on a 2012 run like Sarah Palin, it’s worth considering the chances that they could aim a little bit higher.  The Cubs have now added a solid No. 2 starter in Matt Garza, a slugging first baseman—albeit with an OPS (.732) lower than Starlin Castro’s—in Carlos Pena and a suitable bridge to Carlos Marmol in Kerry Wood.  These additions fill GM Jim Hendry’s top three offseason priorities—adding a frontline starter, a lefty power bat who can play first base and a power reliever—despite lacking payroll flexibility.  Well done, Mr. Hendry…

Unless you consider that the Cubs are still likely to finish behind the Reds, Brewers, Cardinals and maybe the Astros.  Since going winless in back to back postseasons in 2007 and 2008, the Cubs have broadened the definition of mediocrity to include August in Wrigley. 

The Cubs are the middle managers of MLB; clock-punching, knit tie-wearing lunchbox carriers looking up admiringly to the elite in baseball.  Those elite franchises, like the Phillies and Red Sox, spend their league-leading payrolls to become the league’s CEOs—the Beemer-driving, luxury box-sitting, swagger-mongers.  The Cubs, who will likely have the National League’s highest payroll, will enter 2011 with a scratchy quilt of overpriced vets and unproven question marks, with the faraway dream that they could one day mesh into a championship unit.

But what if that day was sooner rather than…never?  With gaudy pieces like Castro, Josh Vitters, Andrew Cashner and Brett Jackson potentially for sale and available suitors looking to cast off today’s stars in favor of tomorrow’s dreams, would the Cubs be willing to dash it all for a 2011 run?  Signs indicate that they might be, after sending four of their top 12 prospects to Tampa last week for Garza.

So look into that crystal ball, Mr. Hendry, for here are the top moves the Cubs could make to secure a trip to the playoffs in 2011…

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There’s no way to predict what’s going to happen in 2011. 

For evidence, look at 2010, and the 50 bold predictions I would have made for last season.

They would have been bold, entertaining and provocative in some way, but they would not have included Jose Bautista hitting 54 home runs (his previous high was 16), MLB pitchers throwing seven no-hitters (counting Armando Gallaraga’s near-perfect game), a player hitting a grand slam on the first major league pitch he saw (Boston’s Daniel Nava), Aroldis Chapman throwing a pitch 105 MPH in a major league game or the Padres racking up 90 wins with the league’s second-lowest payroll.

The topper was a World Series title by the Giants. The Giants were led by cast-offs from other teams and had one of the worst offenses in the league. Watching them try to squeeze across runs was like watching paint dry, while getting a root canal—on your testes. 

They were led by blue-chip pitchers but also by an offense built around Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Cody Ross and Juan Uribe, all players who were released or unwanted by other teams. The Giants’ amazing 2010 campaign offers hope for 2011 to every .500-level team in baseball…except maybe the Cubs.

So who are the unwanted or unsigned players that will lead someone to a championship this year? And which team will emerge from mediocrity to win (the 2011 version of the Giants)?

Anyone can predict who looks like the best team heading into spring training or who has assembled the best collection of talent. But no one can sincerely forecast who will be playing the best baseball 10 months from now. Predictions for the Fall Classic are like stock market forecasts—they’re somewhat baseless and arbitrary, but there’s no shortage of experts willing to offer them. 

That said, here are 50 bold predictions for 2011…

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If it wasn’t already clear, the 2010-11 off-season has broadcast to the world the Chicago Cubs’ full-blown dormancy in the National League Central.  I’m not saying the Cubs won’t be heard from in 2011, but they’ll likely make fewer national television appearances than Barack Obama.  Don’t call them the Pirates yet, but also don’t call them the Reds, Brewers, Cardinals, or probably the Astros.  That’s right, the Cubs are officially stuck in .500-ville.  Picture the New York Knicks, except outdoors, and also without LeBron James.

The Cardinals have been busy adding Lance Berkman, Ryan Theriot and Jake Westbrook.  Meanwhile, the Brewers were assembling the best rotation west of West Philly and the Reds were getting a year older.  That’s right, the future is now for the powers of the National League Central.  That means the future has to be 2012 for the Cubs, who have roughly $121 million committed to 15 players for the upcoming season.  However, $50 million worth of bloated, under-achieving payroll will come off the books after 2011, meaning the Cubs could be poised for a serious 2012 run (paging Mr. Pujols).

Yes, this team did sign Carlos Pena, but it was a one-year deal.  They also passed, or lost out, on Erik Bedard, Brandon Webb and every other veteran starter who has signed to provide a more bloated, under-achieving payroll.  The Cubs clearly are looking ahead of ahead, which means Cubs fans might want to follow Ron Burgundy’s advice and find yourselves a safe house, or a relative close by.  You might want to lay low for awhile.

            There are many moves to be made with an eye on 2012, and here are the top ten potential deals…

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Cliff Lee’s imminent free-agent destination is no certainty yet, but there’s one reason he would re-sign with the Rangers (his family) and 160,000,000 proverbial reasons he would sign with the Yankees.  Maybe there is a chance his family is reason enough to sign with the Rangers, but, as we have often learned this time of year: the Yankees + desperation mode = new Yankees.  Think for a moment of the last time you remember the Yankees turning up as offseason losers and you will understand the likelihood they lose out on Lee.

But the rest of the league, known as “Other 28,” still could make waves by adding starting pitchers this offseason.  Some teams are blessed with an abundance of arms, while others are cursed with low revenues and looming free agency.  Other teams sign or make deals for pitchers each offseason but still always have a need (I’m looking at you, Milwaukee). 

Here, then, are 10 pitching targets for teams missing out on Cliff Lee.

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Now that Jayson Werth has signed his jaw-dropping contract with the Nationals, the hot stove dominoes are likely to start falling.  Werth’s contract, henceforth known as the Nationals’ Deficit, gives Carl Crawford more leverage than a supermodel at a Star Wars premiere.  Multiple sources are now reporting Crawford’s agent is seeking eight years and $180 million, or 2 ½ times the total payroll for the 2010 Tampa Bay Rays.  It’s likely that the only way Crawford would get more money is if his agent was also Scott Boras, and the Nationals were competing against themselves to sign him.

It just happens that there is one other free agent linchpin seeking similar money—Cliff Lee—and exactly two teams with the capital to sign them.  Though the Rangers and Angels have thrown their hats in the free agency ring, the most likely scenario still has it that the Yankees and Red Sox will rochambeau for Crawford and Lee.  That would leave the rest of the league, henceforth known as the Other 28, to compete for the services of the remaining outfield options.  And there are some needy competitors.  The Rays will have to replace the bats of Crawford and Carlos Pena, the Angels will look to improve their lineup after a sub-.500 season, and the Tigers appear poised to keep spending.

Here then are the ten best likely available outfielders once Crawford signs…

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       Will he’ll be the third best shortstop on the team in a couple years?  Sure.  Don’t his career numbers make him a rich man’s Craig Biggio?  Of course.  But the Yankees need Derek Jeter as much as the Yankee captain needs the pinstripes.  The Yankees are built on quiet professionalism and championship legacy, and no player, now or on the horizon (sorry, Robinson Cano), represents the Yankee brand like Derek Jeter.

       Don’t believe me?  Well, close your eyes and imagine Jeter in an Astros uniform.  Then open them and read the top nine reasons why the Yankees need to pony up and sign Derek Jeter before it’s too late.

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