Kuzul

Assuming Zack Greinke misses his start Monday night due to injury, for the first time in my daily fantasy career I selected the two highest-priced pitchers. Give me a second, I might shed a tear because this is a big deal.

It’s a strategy I rarely employ because it often cripples the remaining roster. However, there’s enough value on this small-ish 10-game slate for me to still slip in a minor Blue Jays stack. 

Here’s Monday’s lineup:

Corey Kluber ($11,300) vs. Twins

Kluber has not looked great since he returned from injury on September 17. But he’s out for revenge against a Twins lineup that roughed him up in Minneapolis less than a week ago. He’s also slightly more valuable now because of his lesser price tag. Kluber‘s down $1,600 from $12,900 way back on August 29, according to DraftKings. 

ESPN’s batter vs. pitcher page rarely yields a large enough sample size to show a pitcher’s true success rate against a group of guys. In Kluber‘s case against the division rival Twins, I believe it does. In 264 plate appearances against the Indians ace, Twin position players are hitting just .202 with a .250 OBP. Kluber has struck out nearly 31 percent of Twins in his career. 

Though Minnesota isn’t hanging with the absolute bottom-dwellers in terms of offensive production, it’s not a particularly frightening lineup. This season, the Twins rank 23rd in wRC+ and 24th in wOBA, according to FanGraphs. 

Max Scherzer ($12,000) vs. Reds

The Reds are a bad offensive ballclub masquerading as a solid offensive ballclub because their home park is extremely hitter-friendly. On the road, they show their true colors. According to FanGraphs, the Reds rank 21st in the league in road batting average and 26th in runs scored. 

Though Scherzer hasn’t been as dominating as he was to start the season, he’s the safest pick on the board. Per DraftKings, Scherzer has posted at least 19 fantasy points in five of his past six starts. 

Scherzer is near the top of the league in most major pitching measures. According to FanGraphs, he’s fifth in strikeouts per nine, seventh in innings pitched, ninth in WAR and 13th in xFIP.  

Crooked Numbers in Baltimore

Baltimore’s starter tonight, Chris Tillman, is not having a great year. His ERA of 5.16 is the highest for any Oriole pitcher who’s started more than 15 games. Monday night he has the unfortunate task of dealing with the best offensive club in the league.

Just for the heck of it, let’s run through the major offensive categories in which the Blue Jays are atop the league. According to FanGraphs, Toronto ranks first in home runs, runs, isolated power, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wOBA, wRC+ and offensive WAR. In most of those categories, no other team is close. 

Every day, numberFire.com uses a complex algorithm to project every player’s expected point total for that day. Its top three projected point totals for position players Monday are Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. What do those three have in common? They play for the Blue Jays. 

If I could fit more Blue Jays into my lineup, I would. But, as I mentioned earlier, I felt like experimenting with two high-priced starting pitchers.  

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In this column yesterday I went on and on about how exciting it was to see former Athletic greats Barry Zito and Tim Hudson take the mound for opposing sides in Oakland. I thought Zito would get shelled and Hudson would guide his team to victory with a quality start. 

Whoops!

The Giants beat the A’s 14-10, and both Zito and Hudson were on ice by the start of the third inning.

However, I clearly haven’t learned my lesson, because I again went with a former Oakland Athletic starter in today’s lineup. Here it is:

James Shields ($9,000) vs. Diamondbacks and Gio Gonzalez ($8,300) vs. Phillies

Let’s start with Big Game James Shields. The former Royal, Ray (and Devil Ray) is enjoying a quality season with San Diego. According to Baseball Reference, he’s currently striking out 9.6 batters per nine innings. That’s well above his career average of 7.8 whiffs per nine innings. Unfortunately, he’s walking 3.5 hitters per nine, a full walk more than his career average.

A higher strikeout and walk rate indicate a higher total pitch count per batter. However, per Baseball Reference, Shields has gone five or more innings in all but one game this season. He’s not piling up the complete games like he did in 2011, but he’s a safe start. 

The Diamondbacks are a quality hitting team. According to Fan Graphs, they rank between 10th and 15th in the league in several offensive categories. However, if Shields can keep the ball in the yard, he should have success. According to ESPN, in 114 career at-bats against Shields, these Diamondbacks have hit just .228, but with eight dingers. 

Gio Gonzalez and the Nationals host the Phillies today. Per DraftKings, the last time Gonzalez pitched against Philadelphia he went seven innings, allowed two runs, and struck out 12 for a 35.6 point fantasy day. That was less than two weeks ago. 

I’m not saying he’ll strike out a dozen more from the City of Brotherly Love, but he should thrive at home against a weak offensive club. The Phillies rank in the bottom five in the league in road OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ according to Fan Graphs. He’s also the second most likely starter to get a win (which nets four fantasy points) by number Fire’s daily MLB projections.

Mike Trout ($4,900) vs. Mariners

Isn’t daily fantasy fun! How cool is it that I get to put together a lineup with Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Yoenis Cespedes as the starting outfield? It’s too bad arm strength isn’t a category. 

Anyway, Trout has been on a roll lately. Per DraftKings, the reigning AL MVP is averaging 12.3 fantasy points per game over his last 10 games. He’s relatively cheap considering he’s still the consensus best player in the world. My only issue with Trout is that he makes insane plays like this robbed home run from last night look routine.  

No Lineup Stack Today?

This is a rare occasion where I spread my offensive players around the league. This lineup is more suited for a DraftKings 50/50, H2H or Double Up than a Guaranteed Prize Pool. If I were to stack any lineup, it’d probably be the Dodgers. Though the division is all but wrapped up (the magic number is currently two), they should try to win one more game before playing a four game series in San Francisco. 

Los Angeles is in Denver where the air is thin and routine fly balls are commonly mistaken for home runs. Chris Rusin, the Rockies’ starter, is 5-9 with a 5.39 season ERA. Last night, the Rockies won 8-6 on a walk-off home run. I’d expect a similar offensive output from both of these rosters.

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It’s unfortunate that both the A’s and Giants have played themselves out of the playoff race. Not because both teams began last season at torrid paces, then cooled off, then snuck into the playoffs. Not because the Giants won’t be a validated as a dynasty until they make the tournament in an odd year. 

No, the real reason I’d like to see this game mean something is for the comedy in today’s pitching matchup. 

Barry Zito ($5,100) versus Tim Hudson ($5,500)

In 2002, the Oakland Athletics won 103 games. They were a dominant club that at one point down the stretch won 20 games in a row (I know, I know, I just spoiled the climax of Moneyball.) But what gets lost in the movie (and the book, really) is the pitching staff. The A’s were built around three dominant young dominant starters. Zito, Hudson, and Mark Mulder.

That year, according to Baseball Reference, Hudson went 15-9 with a 2.98 ERA. Zito went 23-5 with a 2.75 ERA and won the AL Cy Young. Hudson had many more quality years in Atlanta and eventually San Francisco.

Zito, however, did not. After four good, but not great seasons in the East Bay, he signed a monster deal to pitch in AT&T Park. In seven years pitching for the Giants in a pitcher’s park, Zito never finished with an ERA under four. 

Today I expect a lopsided game in front of a (rare) sellout crowd in Oakland. Hudson is making his last career start in the building where his career began. He’ll pitch within himself, get groundouts, and likely go six or more innings. 

Zito might get shelled. Though the two are similar in cost on Draft Kings, they’re not equally effective. Zito allowed two earned runs in just one inning the last time he took the hill. It was his only appearance in 2015. He’s entirely dependent on his big curveball and if it hangs; batting practice for the Giants hitters. 

Hudson already announced his impending retirement. Zito refuses to. 

Other pitching options: Adam Warren ($4,500) vs. White Sox, Stephen Strasburg ($10,700) vs. Phillies, Justin Nicolino ($4,300) vs. Braves, Jeremy Hellickson ($6,200) @ Padres

This lineup is a pretty even mix of talented players from around the league. But if you’re playing in a guaranteed prize pool on Draft Kings, and you want to stack a lineup, there are a few solid options today.

The Dodgers’ magic number is two. They could clinch the NL West today with a win and a Giants loss in Oakland. That means they’ll send all their regular starters out against Kyle Kendrick and his 6.37 ERA. I’m playing Andre Ethier and Adrian Gonzalez, but second baseman Howie Kendrick and outfielder Carl Crawford also make strong plays. 

I already mentioned that I believe the Giants will tee-off against their old 126 million dollar man. I’ve got Buster Posey in my lineup. I could easily toss third basemen Matt Duffy and designated hitter Marlon Byrd in as well. They’ve all got a legitimate shot at rounding the bases against the old lefty with an ERA of 18. 

Other lineups to stack: Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Colorado Rockies

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It’s week two of the NFL season and you’re probably planning on plopping down on the couch for that magical seven-hour block of NFL RedZone that only happens 17 times every year. Honestly, I can’t blame you. 

But baseball season is winding down and there are precious few weeks left with all 30 teams on the schedule. We know by now that when there are more teams playing, there’s more value to be found.

So, before settling in to that you-sized indent on the futon, grab some peanuts, maybe a foam finger and set a tasty little MLB lineup on DraftKings. If you select some of these bargain buys, you probably won’t regret it.

Tim Hudson ($5,000) vs. Diamondbacks

Tim Hudson is extremely cheap for a guy who just pitched a gem against the boys from the desert. On September 8, Huddy threw six innings of one-run ball against the snakes. Oh yeah, he also tagged a ball—the eighth of nine homers by San Francisco Giant pitchers so far this season. 

Today numberFire ranks Hudson as the most valuable pitcher on DraftKings. He’ll benefit from throwing at home in the second best pitcher’s park in the league, according to ESPN’s park factor statistic. Also, his sinker-ball and consequent high ground-ball-rate (about 56 percent this season and throughout his career, according to Fangraphs) help him to avoid allowing home runs and sustain success through the heat of the summer. 

Jake Odorizzi ($8,900) vs. Orioles

According to Fangraphs, the Orioles have been the worst offensive team in the American League. They rank last in wRC+ and wOBA and lead the AL in strikeout rate.

I expect that offensive trend to continue in Tampa today with Odorizzi on the bump. The righty enters today’s bout having posted three straight strong starts. Per DraftKings, Odorizzi has not dipped below 17.9 fantasy points this month and has averaged over 20 per outing. He should easily top six innings against the slumping O’s. 

Other pitchers to target: 

Aaron Nola ($8,200) @ Braves

Julio Teheran ($7,700) vs. Phillies

Aaron Brooks ($4,300) @ Astros

Stephen Strasburg ($10,400) vs. Marlins

(OF) Bryce Harper ($6,000) vs. Marlins 

At this point, how can you build a lineup without the kid in it? Bryce Harper is on a tear! According to DraftKings, over the past six games, his worst outing yielded eight fantasy points. He hit five home runs and scored 114 fantasy points in that streak.

The trouble with the next NL MVP? He’s pricey. It’s tough to allocate one outfield spot 12 percent of your daily roster. One way to help fit him in? A cheap two-man Phillies stack…

(SS/3B) Andres Blanco ($2,100) @ Braves and (OF/1B) Darin Ruf ($2,000) @ Braves

NumberFire ranks Blanco and Ruf as the top two values amongst position players today. They’re both dirt cheap, but provide unique skills at minimal up front costs. Ruf’s bat has pop. Though he rarely gets on base, eight of Ruf’s 51 hits this season have left the yard. 

Blanco, at 31, is a better overall player. He has five homers, but also reaches base over 36 percent of the time. Though Braves starter Julio Teheran should still have a nice outing, don’t be surprised if one of these two eventually knocks him out of the game.

Other position players to target: 

(OF) Edwin Encarnacion ($5,000) vs. Red Sox

(SS) Corey Seager ($3,300) vs. Pirates

(SS) Francisco Lindor ($4,600) vs. White Sox

(OF) Matt Kemp ($5,100) @ Rockies

(OF) Justin Upton ($5,300) @ Rockies 

(OF) Tommy Pham ($3,100) @ Cubs

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Does anyone else feel like this was the fantasy football draft weekend of the summer? I’m in three leagues, and all three of my drafts were this weekend.

What’s the deal? Football is still 11 days away. I don’t want to have to shift my focus from baseball to football yet. Hopefully you don’t either. Let’s jump right into today’s baseball primer. 

Nathan Eovaldi ($7,400) at Braves

Check out Eovaldi’s 10-game log on DraftKings. The Yankees righty is nothing if not consistent. He’s scored in double digits in each of his past 10 starts. And despite back-to-back outings in which Eovaldi has posted 26 or more fantasy points, he’s not that expensive. 

Oh yeah, today Eovaldi gets the combusting Braves away from the bandbox in the Bronx. Since the All-Star break, Atlanta’s been the worst offensive club in the league. They’re dead last in wRC+, runs and team offensive WAR according to Fangraphs. 

Eovaldi will also benefit from not pitching against a designated hitter. If he can avoid injury in his third, fourth and fifth at-bats of the season, he should have a big fantasy night. 

Stephen Strasburg ($10,000) vs. Marlins

Make no mistake, Strasburg is in the middle of his worst season in the bigs by far. But in the past month-and-a-half, he’s returned to form. On DraftKings, Strasburg has scored 20 or more fantasy points in four straight games and averaged 26 fantasy points over his last seven starts. It’s been more than three months since Strasburg allowed more than two runs in a game. 

Like Eovaldi, Strasburg has a terrific matchup. What is it with humid southern NL East cities? According to Fangraphs, the Marlins are the second-most incompetent team (behind the aforementioned Braves) at the dish since the All-Star break. They’ve hit only 21 home runs since the Midsummer Classic. Twenty-one! That’s roughly one jack every two games. Look for Strasburg to go seven or more innings in the nation’s capital today.

Other good options: Charlie Morton ($7,200) vs. Rockies, Josh Tomlin ($5,600) vs. Angels, John Lamb ($5,300) at Brewers 

Stack the ‘Stros

Sadly, the Blue Jays just passed the Astros in total team home runs. Houston led the league for the first four months of the season, but the sluggers up north finally caught them. In fact, Houston’s offense has been struggling lately. They’ve dropped to ninth in the league in wRC+, according to Fangraphs. 

However, they should tee off today against Ervin Santana in Minneapolis. Per DraftKings, Santana has been horrible recently. He’s posted a negative fantasy total in four of his past six outings. He’s allowed more than five runs per start and walked 15 batters in that same six-game stretch. 

If you stack the top of the Astros lineup and they strike with one big inning, you’re in good shape to cash in for any tournament. The way Santana is chucking, Houston is liable to put up multiple crooked-numbered innings at Target Field. 

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According to ESPN.com, the MLB playoffs start on October 6. That means two things.

One, playoff baseball is almost here! It’s less than 40 days until the ever-tense Wild Card Round begins. Eek! I’m giddy!

Two, less than 40 days of full daily fantasy baseball slates remain. By now I’m sure you’ve figured out that there is more variation and, consequently, more value on the days when all 30 teams play ball.

So let’s take advantage of those large slates while we still can! Here are some tips for Friday’s lineup.

Colorado Rockies SP Jon Gray ($4,300) at Pittsburgh Pirates

Jon Gray was terrible in his last outing, as he was on the wrong end of Yoenis Cespedes‘ 67-point fantasy night. Gray allowed seven earned runs in just 1.2 innings, including two home runs from the Cuban outfielder. 

As odd as it may seem, that performance helps Gray’s value. He enters Friday night’s game in Pittsburgh as the third-cheapest starting pitcher on the board. But he should get a massive bump from not pitching at home in the altitude.

Other than the two Cespedes at-bats, Gray’s also shown to be quite capable in his young rookie campaign. In his three previous starts, he allowed just four total runs and struck out 14 batters. Two of those starts were at home. 

Gray is talented. The Rockies took him third overall in the 2013 draft, and he blew through the minors while posting nearly a strikeout per inning. He is the most likely pitcher on the board to quadruple—or even quintuple—his cost. 

Other inexpensive starters to target: Baltimore Orioles SP Kevin Gausman ($5,600) at Texas; Kansas City Royals SP Erasmo Ramirez ($6,000) at Tampa Bay

Washington Nationals SP Max Scherzer ($12,500) vs. Miami Marlins

According to numberFire.com, Scherzer is projected to score 20.66 fantasy points Friday—the highest projected total for any pitcher in the league.

It makes sense—the Marlins stink. They’ve scored the second-fewest runs in the league, are one of just two teams with fewer than 100 home runs on the season and are dead last in wRC+ and wOBA. 

Scherzer isn’t pitching like he did for a couple of weeks in June, but he’s still a candidate to toss a complete-game shutout every time he gets on the bump. 

Los Angeles Dodgers OF Carl Crawford ($2,400) vs. Chicago Cubs

Though Carl Crawford is likely the most overpaid baseball player in the league, he’s a smart bargain buy in daily fantasy. According to the Dodgers’ Twitter account, Crawford will start in place of the injured Yasiel Puig in the outfield Friday. 

Crawford is having a terrible season. He’s getting on base just 28 percent of the time and has only stolen three bags so far this year. However, he’ll be hitting in the middle of a good power-hitting lineup against a steady, but hittable pitcher. 

Stack the Mariners

Looking to stack? Look no further than Seattle. Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Franklin Gutierrez, Robinson Cano and Austin Jackson all make for nice plays Friday as Seattle travels to face John Danks and the Chicago White Sox.

According to ESPN.com’s pitcher vs. team stats, both Robby Cano and Austin Jackson are hitting well over .400 against Danks in their careers. Cruz is just above .300 (and probably the best hitter in the league this season,) and though Seager and Gutierrez don’t have stellar lifetime numbers against the lefty, they shouldn’t be intimidated by Danks’ 1.42 WHIP and 4.90 ERA. 

All prices courtesy of DraftKings.com. All stats are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

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It’s August 21, and just about three-fourths of the season is in the books. Some teams are rounding out their playoff rosters, gearing up for the chance at an extended run through late October. Others are bringing up prospects who, in some cases, have spent years in the minors. 

So what does all that mean? 

It means that most rosters will be dotted with “green” players—guys who don’t have much prior experience. Those guys are inherently cheap on sites like DraftKings. If you can plug in the right inexpensive players, you can fill out the rest of your roster with studs.

P Kendry Flores, Marlins ($4,000) vs. Phillies

For the first time in his brief career, the Miami Marlins are expected to hand the ball to 23-year-old rookie right-hander Kendry Flores on Friday against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies. Flores is 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA and six relief appearances to his name. 

This is a dream scenario for Flores, who gets to face the second-worst lineup in the majors (Flores’ Marlins are the worst) at home in front of a couple thousand yawning fans. According to FanGraphs, the Phillies rank 29th in the league in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers.

According to ESPN.com, the Marlins average just over 22,000 fans at Marlins Park, the fourth-lowest mark in the league.

Other good pitching options: Gio Gonzalez, Nationals ($8,500) vs. Brewers; Kyle Hendricks, Cubs ($7,100) vs. Braves; Andrew Cashner, Padres ($6,000) vs. Cardinals; Jerad Eickhoff, Phillies ($4,600) at Marlins

1B/C Buster Posey, Giants ($4,100) at Pirates

Buster Posey has quietly put together another MVP-caliber season in San Francisco. The 28-year-old Georgia native is batting .322 with 16 jacks and 58 runs for the second-place Giants. 

The Giants will face lefty Jeff Locke in Pittsburgh on Friday. Posey is a career .327 hitter off lefties with a stout .946 OPS, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

Other good catching options: Russell Martin, Blue Jays ($3,200) at Angels

2B Kelby Tomlinson ($2,100) or 2B Ehire Adrianza ($2,000), Giants at Pirates

Kelby Tomlinson and Ehire Adrianza have been platooning at second base for the reigning world champions. Recently, Tomlinson has gotten the majority of the playing time, but it’s your duty as a daily fantasy player to monitor the starting lineups and make sure you start 10 guys who are on the scorecard. 

Tomlinson has been solid as the Giants’ alternative to the injured Joe Panik. He’s stroked at least one base hit in seven straight games in which he’s played. He also gets to bat leadoff for one of the best hitting road teams in the whole league. According to FanGraphs, the Giants offense ranks first in wOBA and wRC in road games this season. 

Adrianza hasn’t been as consistent as Tomlinson, but if he gets the start, he’ll enjoy the same team-based advantages that Tomlinson does, for a slightly lower price.

Rocky Mountain High Scoring

3B Nolan Arenado ($5,100) and OF Charlie Blackmon ($4,500), Rockies vs. Mets

What does everyone else in this article have in common? They’re cheap. These two? Not so much.

With the thin Colorado air cutting down on the movement of Bartolo Colon‘s fastballs, expect the Rockies bats to send their fans home with some souvenirs. Eleven of Charlie Blackmon‘s 13 home runs have come against righties, as have 24 of his 31 stolen bases. 

Nolan Arenado‘s dominance against right-handed pitching is even more evident. The third baseman has hit 27 of his 29 homers off righties thus far. He also holds a batting average of .287 against right-handed hurlers, compared to a paltry .247 against southpaws.

Other good outfield options: Yoenis Cespedes, Mets ($5,300) at Rockies

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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I usually build my DraftKings lineups by selecting my two pitchers first, then filling in the eight position players with the remaining salary. However, I feel like going a different route Wednesday. 

When I looked over Wednesday’s slate, one team jumped out at me: Toronto. The Blue Jays are the highest-scoring team in baseball—they’ve tallied 63 more runs than any other team—and they are playing in Citizens Bank Park in South Philly—the third-smallest ballpark in the bigs, according to a 2014 study done by BusinessInsider.com‘s Cork Gaines.

The opposing starter? Adam Morgan, a 6’1″, 195-pound lefty making his 10th career start.

Morgan has been serviceable nine games into his career, as he currently sports a 4.11 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Unfortunately for Morgan, the Blue Jays tee off against lefties; they currently rank first in the majors in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+, an advanced metric that measures the runs created by a player (or team) against the league average. 

Every day, numberFire.com uses its advanced algorithm to project every player’s statistics. Games are simulated thousands of times, and eventually each player’s true projections become apparent. For Wednesday’s slate, numberFire projects each of these Blue Jays to lead their respective position in fantasy points:

• OF: Jose Bautista ($5,500), at Phillies
• 3B: Josh Donaldson ($5,900), at Phillies
• SS: Troy Tulowitzki ($4,600), at Phillies
• C: Russell Martin ($3,600), at Phillies

All four are right-handed batters, and three of the four are hitting over .310 against lefties this season. (Joey Bats is hitting just .244, but he has traditionally hit .269 against southpaws with a slugging percentage over .500.)

But the best part about starting these four is their hit clustering. To date, there is little empirical data that proves whether or not it is easier to hit with runners on base. However, for daily fantasy purposes, it is much easier to score fantasy points when surrounded with talented offensive players.

Think about it, if Tulo gets on via the walk, he has sluggers like Donaldson, Bautista, Martin and Edwin Encarnacion to knock him in. Not too shabby. 

Cheap Pitchers to Target

The Blue Jays are the most expensive team to stack at DraftKings for Wednesday’s games, so you’ll have to throw out one or two bargain-bin pitchers to fit their bats into your roster. Here are a couple of suggestions.

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels ($6,100) vs. Chicago White Sox

The 6’7″ right-hander is (probably not) enjoying the worst season of his career—he is currently 4-9 with a 4.60 ERA, the worst ERA of his 10-year career. Jered Weaver is dirt cheap because of his poor season, and he gets to throw against the White Sox. Chicago ranks last in the AL in on-base plus slugging (OPS) and is last in the entire league in runs produced. If there was ever a time for Weaver to right the ship, it’s Wednesday night in Anaheim.

Jeremy Guthrie, Kansas City Royals ($4,000) at Cincinnati Reds

Jeremy Guthrie is having a worse season than Weaver! His WHIP is nearly 1.6, he doesn’t strike people out, his ERA is crap and his 8-7 record is extremely misleading. But he only costs $4,000 and will be throwing against a Reds team that ranks 26th in wRC+ against righties.

Guthrie won’t have to face a designated hitter since the Royals are in Cincinnati. He also benefits from pitching in front of the best defensive team in the league by far, as KC is nearly doubling up the second-place Tampa Bay Rays.

All prices come from DraftKings.com. All statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted. 

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Nelson Cruz ($6,200) @ Rockies

There was nowhere else to start other than this gem from the Elias Sports Bureau on just how rare Nelson Cruz’s season has been:

Cruz is on a tear! Check out this screen grab of his last four games (before last night, in which he also hit a homer,) according to DraftKings.com:

Five straight games with multiple hits and a home run? What a run for the big outfielder!

That ridiculous hot streak, plus the natural Coors Field bump, has Cruz priced $600 more than any other position player on the board. It’s a super steep price to pay, but the numbers say he should come through. Cruz is destroying left-handed pitching this season. Rockies left-handed starter Chris Rusin should know that, per FanGraphs.com, in 89 at-bats against south paws, Cruz is hitting .393 with eight jacks and 17 runs. 

Don’t Overspend On Starting Pitchers

According to DraftKings.com, there are seven pitchers that cost over $9,000. Of those seven, three (Madison Bumgarner, Matt Harvey and Johnny Cueto) make nice plays Wednesday, but only Matt Harvey jumps off the page. 

Harvey’s Mets are in South Florida to play the Marlins this week. Miami, per FanGraphs.com, ranks 26th in the league in batting average against right-handed pitchers. They’re also dead last in the league in wRC+ against righties. 

Harvey is coming off of a fantastic start against a quality Nationals team in which he pitched well into the eighth inning and struck out nine. He should continue his mini-hot streak Wednesday.

If you’re looking for cheap options, I like the Dodgers’ Brett Anderson, but I love the Rays’ Erasmo Ramirez.

In daily fantasy baseball on DraftKings.com, the goal is for a player to double (or more than double) his cost. So if a player costs $5,000, he is considered a “smart play” when he exceeds 10 fantasy points. 

Per DraftKings.com, Ramirez’s production has more than doubled his cost in eight of his last 10 starts. His production has even tripled his cost in five of his past 10 starts. 

So we’ve established that Ramirez is borderline criminally underrated by DraftKings.com, but that’s not the whole story. To boot, Wednesday night he gets to throw against the White Sox, who have, per FanGraphs.com, scored the fewest runs in the American League. 

Games To Stack

Stacking is a pretty common strategy in daily fantasy sports. Defined by rotogrinders.com as “loading up on players who play on the same MLB team,” stacking is the most common strategy amongst people in large tournaments. It’s a higher risk, but it brings on a higher reward.

Wednesday, watch for fireworks in Colorado and New York. Of the four pitchers going in those two games, only Taijuan Walker costs more than $5,000. Even he sports an ERA of 4.73. Any one of these four teams is a worthy candidate. 

My favorite team to stack out of those four? Seattle. Right now, you pretty much want anyone who is hitting anywhere near Nelson Cruz in the lineup, because he’s raking. Plus, per ESPN.com, Seattle has averaged nine runs per game in its current series in the thin air of Denver. 

Also, aside from Cruz, Seattle’s relatively cheap because it’s been a subpar offensive team so far this season. Entering Wednesday, according to FanGraphs.com, the Mariners rank 24th in runs scored per game.

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High-Priced Hurlers

Corey Kluber ($11,500) at Reds

OK, so Cincinnati isn’t the best place to start the second half of the year for the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner. Per ESPN.com’s park factors, Great American Ball Park has been the fourth-most hitter-friendly diamond in the league this season. 

But Kluber is a monster. For evidence, read Jason Lukehart’s article that’s linked in this tweet from @CoreyKluberNews:

His peripherals have been largely better than those from his 2014 season. Even with that putrid 4-10 record, Kluber eats up innings and misses bats with the best of them.

Michael Pineda ($10,400) vs. Mariners

Pineda was a disaster the last time I wrote about him, as he allowed eight runs on 11 hits in 3.1 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies on June 22. 

Terrible. Just terrible.

Since then, I’ve had cold feet starting the massive Yankees right-hander. 

But he draws a nice matchup against his former team Saturday night. The current Mariners roster hasn’t had much experience taking the batter’s box against Pineda, but in 44 total at-bats so far, it has combined to reach base less than 30 percent of the time, according to ESPN.com.

If Pineda can keep the fly balls in the yard, he’ll be a sound fantasy option even at that elevated price point. 

Tyson Ross ($8,900) vs. Rockies

Ross is my favorite of the “expensive” pitchers. NumberFire.com projects Ross to score the fourth-most fantasy points in the league Saturday night.

Ross has terrific stuff. Per ESPN.com, he’s eighth in the National League in strikeouts. But he still struggles with control. He leads the NL in walks…by 11! Luckily, the Rockies aren’t a particularly patient club. They’re 13th in the NL with 211 walks as a team.

If It Ain’t Broke…

Chase Anderson ($5,800) vs. Giants

Chase Anderson has been pretty good in his second season in the bigs. He has a 3.91 ERA, respectable for anyone pitching half their games at Chase Field. But in general, none of his peripherals—strikeout rate, WHIP or FIP—suggest that he’ll ever be an All-Star-caliber starter.

He did, however, have his best outing of the season against the Giants. On June 12 in San Francisco, Anderson allowed just one hit over seven innings against the defending World Series champions. 

Maybe he’ll do it again?

Too Cheap to Pass up

Chris Tillman ($4,100) at Tigers

According to ESPN.com’s team vs. pitcher stat, for his career, Chris Tillman is striking out one out of every five Tigers he faces. The current Detroit roster is hitting just .265 off the righty. 

That’s enough evidence to start anyone if they cost less than $5,000.

Chad Billingsley ($4,000) vs. Marlins

I remember in 2008 when Billingsley was the ace of the Dodgers staff and some kid named Clayton Kershaw came up and showed flashes of greatness. The rest of the NL West was really nervous. Was this one-two punch going to dominate the division for years to come?

The answer? A resounding no. Though Kershaw has more than held up his end of the bargain, Billingsley now finds himself pitching for the worst team in baseball.

He’s $10,000 cheaper than his former running mate on DraftKings today!

And that’s precisely why he’s valuable. Billingsley‘s lifetime 3.73 ERA and 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings make him exceedingly valuable for just $4,000.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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