Kuzul

The Cleveland Indians’ starting rotation is almost set for the 2014 season.

Despite having lost Scott Kazmir—and in all likelihood Ubaldo Jimenez—to free agency, the Indians will return four pitchers who had significant impacts on the 2013 ballclub. The rotation’s order and fifth spot, however, are still up in the air.

Corey Kluber, Zach McAllister and Danny Salazar will likely duel it out in spring training for the team’s two, three and four spots. The fifth spot will come down to the spring training results of three candidates: prospect Trevor Bauer, and free-agent additions Shaun Marcum and Tyler Cloyd.

I’ll give you predictions for the makeup of the rotation in the next five slides, while also helping to familiarize you with the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate. 

Let’s begin with the team’s No. 1 starter.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

Pitch usage and velocity figures courtesy of Brooksbaseball.net unless otherwise noted.

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Just two days ago, Cincinnati Reds general manager Walt Jocketty announced that Billy Hamilton would be the team’s starting center fielder for the 2014 season. This announcement came not long after the Texas Rangers inked former Reds center fielder Shin-Soo Choo to a seven year, $130 million deal.

Though this announcement could be viewed as a cause for concern in the eyes of some fans, all are excited at the prospects of Hamilton—or at least his potential—atop the Reds lineup card. 

The 23-year-old has speed that matches, and probably bests, that of all-time greats like Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Vince Coleman and Lou Brock. Additionally, after moving to center field to start the 2013 season, Hamilton has caught on quickly and possesses some of the best positional speed of any player in the game.

This is not to say that Hamilton is without flaw though, and we’ll explore those as well.

This article aims to familiarize fans with Hamilton, exposing both his flaws and talents in an attempt to arrive at some realistic predictions for the young phenom’s first season in the show.

Scouting Report

Hamilton’s game is centered largely around his legendary speed. The Mississippi native has played just 515 career games between the minors and big leagues but has logged an incredible 408 stolen bases.

Hamilton’s not just a runner though. For a young prospect, Hamilton has incredible base-stealing skills that reach far beyond his speed. Hamilton is adept at reading pitchers and has a lightning-quick first step, allowing him to convert on an incredible number of his attempts.

Consider Hamilton’s stolen base totals and percentages over each of the last five seasons.

Though each season’s percentage is impressive in its own right, the best stolen-base percentage of Hamilton’s career came last season.

Last year, Hamilton played most of his season—123 out of 136 games—at Triple-A Louisville where he tallied a success rate of 83.3 percent. Hamilton then played the remaining 13 games with the Reds, where he managed a 92.9 percent success rate with just one caught stealing to 13 successes.

Hamilton can steal bases on anybody.

Hamilton stole four bases in the video above, two each off Yadier Molina and A.J. Ellis. In 2013, Molina and Ellis logged caught stealing percentages of 43 and 44 percent respectively—both significantly higher than the 28 percent league average.

If Hamilton’s call-up last season was indicative of anything, it’s that he’ll be able to steal bases at a highly efficient rate. Though his on-base skills are lacking at this juncture, when presented the opportunity, Hamilton will swipe bags far more often than he’s caught trying.

True of most players whose primary asset is speed, Hamilton is a light hitter. The 23-year-old offers little in the way of power and relies heavily on his speed to log extra-base hits.

In an intriguing article comparing the young speedster to former Cardinals star Vince Coleman, B/R’s own resident prospect expert, Mike Rosenbaum, called Hamilton, “the fastest player in baseball. Possibly ever.”

In his year-end top 100 prospects piece, Rosenbaum had this to say of Hamilton

Fastest player I’ve ever seen on a baseball field; best home-to-first time I’ve ever recorded or heard of; everyone in the park knows he’s running, and Hamilton still swipes bags with ease; legitimate top-of-the-order potential at maturity; secondary skills are raw and will require ongoing refinement.

Incredibly, it’s not until you put numbers to Hamilton’s speed that you can truly appreciate it.

In his 2012 scouting report of Hamilton, former big league scout Bernie Pleskoff stated that, at the Arizona Fall League’s Rising Stars Game, he clocked Hamilton at 3.50 seconds while going home to first from the left side. In the same article, Pleskoff stated that Hamilton once clocked himself at 3.30 seconds—possibly an embellishment, but somehow believable.

In short, Hamilton’s speed is the stuff of legend, and should he reach his potential at the plate, he could very well re-write the record books.

Those are Hamilton’s strengths. Given the chance to use them regularly, he’ll provide elite-level speed, average on-base skills and above-average defense in center. Additionally, the Mississippi native brings with him the possibility of Major League Baseball’s first 100 stolen base season since 1987.

Hamilton’s flaws at the plate are evident though, and they could severely limit his ability to recognize his vast potential in the 2014 season.

In the same top 100 prospect article referenced earlier, Rosenbaum had this to say of Hamilton’s abilities at the plate.

Struggled to put ball in play this year consistently compared to 2012 season; always puts pressure on opposing defense; feet never stop moving on the baseball field, especially on the basepaths. Development of hit tool and approach regressed this season; struggles to make consistent contact; some extra-base power from left side thanks to more leveraged swing.

In short, Mike’s assessment is spot on. Hamilton’s 2013 season saw a reduction in his bat-on-ball skills, as well as his on-base skills—both of which will be desperately needed in 2014. You can see what Mike is talking about, even in this 2012 video from Bullpen Banter. 

Hamilton’s swing from the right side is somewhat long, and he tends to lunge at breaking balls and pitches slightly out of the zone. You may also notice that Hamilton’s right-handed swing possesses almost zero leverage, leading one to believe that he’ll hit for very little power from that side of the plate.

Additionally, while bunting, Hamilton has a tendency to drop the barrel of the bat to unfavorable angles, producing either foul balls or popped-up bunt attempts.

Making solid, well-timed contact will be key for Hamilton, as he’ll only be driving the ball over an outfielder’s head on rare occasions. If Hamilton is able to improve his eye for off-speed pitches and ability to make strong contact with the ball, we’ll see an above-average number of inside-the-park home runs, as well as a large number of doubles and triples throughout his career.

All in all, Hamilton’s current skill set presents us with a bit of a mixed bag. His abilities at the plate are slightly behind where they should be given his current status as the team’s starting center fielder and leadoff hitter.

However, Hamilton’s defensive contributions and ability to wreak havoc on the basepaths make him a strong candidate to take home NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2014.

Replacing Shin-Soo Choo

Nobody’s going to sugarcoat this as an easy task, as Hamilton has some rather large shoes to fill in 2014.

Last season, in his only one as a Red, Choo had a monster year. The 31-year-old appeared in 154 games, totaling a .285/.423/.462 slash line with 21 home runs, 34 doubles, 54 RBI, 107 runs scored and 20 stolen bases.

Hamilton, conversely, played his entire season at Triple-A Louisville, working to a .256/.308/.343 slash line with six home runs, 18 doubles, four triples, 41 RBI, 75 runs scored and 75 stolen bases.

To put it quite simply, Hamilton does not equal Choo. Choo is capable of getting on base at a .400-plus clip and, in addition, provides an outstanding combination of power and speed, as evidenced by his .462 slugging percentage and 20 stolen bases.

Even if Hamilton were to perform to the best of his current abilities, he won’t rival Choo‘s incredible on-base percentage. In fact, at this juncture, he won’t even come close, and that’s where the problem sets in.

Hamilton’s current skill set is indicative of a player capable of posting, at best, a .XXX on-base percentage in 2014. Realistically though, that number will probably be closer to the .XXX-.XXX range.

As far as power production is concerned, forget about it. Hamilton won’t approach 10 home runs in 2014, let alone the 21 Choo posted last season.

Luckily, the Reds don’t need him to.

Choo produced a total of 56 extra-base hits in 2013, compared to Hamilton’s 30. Where Hamilton can close that gap in a hurry though is on the basepaths. Hamilton may produce significantly fewer extra-base hits than Choo did, but the guy is practically a walking double.

If he gets on base, there’s a strong possibility he’ll occupy the next base by the end of a given at-bat.

Rookie Season Predictions

Right now, Hamilton is a flawed player. Luckily for the Reds, and for Hamilton, he’s a flawed player with record-breaking potential.

Given Hamilton’s current ability level, over a projected 610 plate appearances and 545 at-bats, it’s reasonable to expect a slash line somewhere in the realm of .239/.302/.313.

Based on the predicted slash line, Hamilton should reach base roughly 184 times in the 2014 season.

If we take away the times he has a triple or a home run, then Hamilton would have 162 opportunities to steal a base. Because of his status as a relatively unproven rookie, it’s likely that Hamilton’s attempts will be slightly scaled back in 2014—let’s say he attempts to steal every 2.5 times he reaches a base shy of third.

Given his success rate over the course of his career—one that should hold true given his speed and awareness—we’d arrive at a stolen base total of 53.

Projecting Hamilton’s career extra-base hit percentages over a full season gives us a look at why scouts are concerned about his strength at the plate. While adjusting for some decrease due to the jump to the MLB level, based on career percentages, we can expect a total of 18 doubles, nine triples and three home runs.

All in all, Hamilton’s 2014 stat line should look something like this.

Though he may fall short of these projections, he may also exceed them. Either way, Hamilton is on the short list of NL ROTY candidates in 2014 and could make the Reds offense tough to deal with should the likes of Brandon Phillips, Ryan Ludwick and Todd Frazier rebound.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Cleveland Indians have been rather inactive over the 2013-14 offseason. The team has made a few additions, but outside of signing David Murphy and John Axford, none of the Indians’ moves carry legitimate significance.

To this point, the Indians have made just two additions to the big league roster—Murphy and Axford. The chart below is a complete listing of the Indians’ signings this offseason.

In this article, we’ll look at the Indians pitching and offensive situations, and discuss how the team’s inability to address key needs could keep them from returning to the playoffs in 2014.

Pitching

The Indians made two signings of significance this offseason, and only one of them addressed an actual need.

When the Indians cut Chris Perez, they created a void in their closer’s spot. Instead of re-signing Joe Smith—an issue we’ll discuss shortly—and working with in-house options, or signing a legitimate closer, they chose to sign Axford.

Axford may find rejuvenation in Cleveland under the tutelage of pitching coach Mickey Callaway, but don’t hold your breath. Over the past two seasons, Axford has gone from being one of MLB‘s most feared closers to a reclamation project for the Indians.

Consider the statistics for both pitchers over the past two seasons. 

Perez may not have been the team’s best option to close, but recent track records suggest that he may have been a better option than Axford.

As previously mentioned, the Indians also made a rather large blunder in not re-signing Smith. Smith was, by far, the team’s best reliever in 2013, posting a 2.29 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 70 appearances and 63 innings pitched. In addition to those outstanding numbers, Smith’s ratios included 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.35 K/BB and 7.7 H/9.

The former Indian made his desire to re-sign with the club clear early on. The 29-year-old told MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, “Everybody in this clubhouse knows I want to be back.”

That statement comes from Jordan’s Oct. 18 article. Just one month later, Smith signed a team-friendly three-year-deal with the Los Angeles Angels, totaling three years and $15.75 million.

Allowing Smith to leave was an inexcusable balk on the part of the Indians front office.

Sticking with the Indians and their pitching staff, the team failed to address the departures of starters Scott Kazmir and Ubaldo Jimenez. While the possibility remains that Jimenez returns to the team, as he is still a free agent, Kazmir has already signed on to pitch with the Oakland A’s over the next two years. 

While Kazmir’s two-year, $22 million contract would have been a lot for Cleveland to commit to, the team is now relying upon a starting rotation whose 1-4 starters consist of Justin Masterson, Danny Salazar, Corey Kluber and Zach McAllister.

Consider those four pitchers and their contributions at the MLB level in 2013.

While the four pitchers referenced above combined for a solid core, the team’s fifth spot has become a huge issue. The Indians have two in-house options, Josh Tomlin and prospect Trevor Bauer. Additionally, the Indians signed veteran Shaun Marcum to a minor-league deal in order to bring some additional competition to spring training.

Tomlin, a 29-year-old veteran, would be a decent option to fill that fifth rotation spot, if not for the fact that he’s coming off a season in which he made just one big league appearance. Tomlin underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2012, and it’s unclear as to whether he’ll be a viable option for the 2014 season.

Marcum is in a situation similar to Tomlin. Marcum has been a solid contributor to the Blue Jays‘ and Brewers‘ rotations over the three seasons between 2010 and 2012, allowing a 3.62 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 520 innings pitched.

The problem with Marcum is that he’s had issues staying healthy. The 32-year-old missed the entire 2009 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and in 2013, Marcum suffered through a season afflicted by an injury called thoracic outlet syndrome—detailed by Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus.

Pitchers returning from this injury generally experience a drop in velocity—e.g. David Cone and Matt Harrison.

This is of particular concern for Marcum, whose fastball had little room to drop. According to Brooksbaseball.net, Marcum‘s fastball topped out at 86 mph in 2013.

Due to his inability to put a fastball past a big league hitter, Marcum may miss out on making the big-league roster. However, that gives way to an even bigger problem, Bauer.

To this point in his career, Bauer has made a total of eight Major League starts. In said eight starts, the 22-year-old owns a 5.67 ERA with a 1.74 WHIP and per-nine ratios of 7.6 K/9, 7.8 BB/9, 7.8 H/9 and 1.4 HR/9.

In his career, Bauer owns a K/BB ratio of just 0.97, hardly indicative of a big-league-ready starting pitcher. Additionally, his 57 percent strike rate sits firmly below the big-league average of 64 percent over his career.

Fewer strikes means more pitches thrown, fewer innings and a greater taxation of the bullpen.

Bauer still holds some of that tremendous upside that once netted him the title of Baseball America‘s No. 9 prospect in 2012, but noted attitude problems have led to a near standstill in his progression as a prospect. If the Indians are forced to start him every fifth day in 2014, it’s going to be a long year in Cleveland.

Offense

Offensively, the Indians were an above-average team in 2013. The chart below details where the Indians ranked in key offensive measures among the rest of the American League’s offenses.

The Indians ranked in the AL’s top half in most statistical measures, and also cracked the top five on multiple occasions. However, despite the success of the offense in 2013, the Tribe still had holes to fill this offseason.

The Indians received paltry contributions from their starting third baseman. Additionally, if the team hopes to compete with the Tigers and Royals for the AL Central crown, then adding power production needed to be a focus this offseason.

Unfortunately, the Indians chose to address neither of those concerns, as their only notable offseason signing on this side of the ball was Murphy.

Murphy is a solid player with a career slash line of .275/.337/.441 and 162-game averages of 16 home runs, 31 doubles, 69 RBI and 69 runs scored. While it certainly won’t hurt to add Murphy to the Indians outfield, the move did not address either of their biggest needs.

Murphy will be an upgrade over Drew Stubbs, who managed just a .233/.305/.360 slash line in 2013. The signing also gives the Indians an opportunity to continue to bring Ryan Raburn off the bench in high-pressure situations.

The problem with the signing though is that it does not address the lack of power on the team’s roster. The team’s nonpitcher .411 slugging percentage is indicative of a team who needed to add either a power-hitting outfielder, or corner infielder.

I’ve promoted the idea of signing Kendrys Morales this offseason. The move could have given the Indians additional power—Morales carries a .480 career slugging percentage—and would’ve given the Indians the opportunity to start Nick Swisher in right field.

Swisher’s production at the plate is far more valuable in the outfield than it is at a premium corner-infield position. Swisher’s per-162 game average of 28 home runs is slightly higher than Morales’ 27, but that can largely be attributed to an ankle injury that cost him most of 2011, and all of 2012.

Even so, adding Morales and moving Swisher would’ve netted the Indians a greater return—in terms of power production—than signing Murphy.

The Indians also had a need at third base. The team is reportedly interested in free agent Wilson Betemit, but recent reports have the team experimenting with catcher/first baseman Carlos Santana at the position. 

Betemit is a career backup, coming off a gruesome injury that cost him nearly the entire 2013 season. Even if he were to rebound fully, Betemit has played 100-plus games in a season only four times over his 11-year-career.

Moving Santana to third base would alleviate some of the concerns surrounding the position’s offensive production over the past few years. However, defensively, it’s unclear if Santana can make the transition without becoming a detriment to the team’s defense.

Santana played a total of 58 games at third base as a minor leaguer, and totaled a .887 fielding percentage, a RF/G of 2.29, and a -8 Rtot (Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average). By comparison, over 88 2013 games, Lonnie Chisenhall managed a .955 fielding percentage, a RF/G of 2.15 and a Rtot of 1.

Chisenhall is the more competent third baseman, and in the Paul Hoynes report linked above, that seems to hold true in Santana’s Dominican League games as well. Over five games at third base with Leones del Escogido, Santana has already made three errors, two of which came in one game.

While it appears the Indians are at least trying to address the offensive issues at third base, moving Santana there and damaging the defensive integrity of the left side of the infield is hardly a proper response.

To this point, the Indians front office hasn’t looked particularly strong. The team allowed both the bullpen and starting rotation to take substantial steps back, and offensive concerns around power production and third base still persist.

Unless the Indians make a move to bring in a power threat, a front-end starting pitcher or a third baseman, then the team could very well miss the playoffs on the back of a strong 2013 season.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Cleveland Indians came into the 2014 offseason with some glaring needs in the bullpen, starting rotation, on the bench and also at third base.

The team was able to remedy some of those needs by signing the likes of John Axford, Shaun Marcum, David Murphy and Jason Giambi among others.

While the offseason is not over, the Indians have likely made the bulk of their offseason transactions, save a few non-roster spring training invitees. Therefore, it’s a great time to stop and grade their signings in relation to team need and financial commitment.

We’ll begin by taking a look at one of the team’s most recent signings, closer John Axford.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

Contract figures and contract status courtesy of Baseballprospectus.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Cincinnati Reds‘ core group of players is capable of winning a World Series title in 2014.

The team possesses a quality starting rotation, a brilliant general manager and two hitters in Joey Votto and Jay Bruce who are amongst the best at their respective positions. While they certainly will need to add a few players in order to complete their lineup, and possibly their bullpen, there are pieces in place for the team to make a serious run next season.

Here are the three biggest reasons why the Reds are capable of winning it all in 2014.

The Starting Rotation

The Reds’ starting rotation has gone through a bit of a rejuvenation over the past few years. The team has benefitted from the addition of Mat Latos, contributions from Bronson Arroyo and the further development of former prospects like Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake.

Consider the contributions of these five pitchers over the past two seasons.

The team has benefitted majorly from outstanding performances from their five core starters.

The unit will undergo some changes this offseason though. Most notably, Bronson Arroyo’s spot in the rotation will need filling given his departure for free agency.

Because of that, the Reds will turn to second-year big leaguer Tony Cingrani. The 24-year-old was masterful in his rookie season, making 18 starts in place of the oft-injured Johnny Cueto.

Providing he kept up the same pace over a full season of work, Cingrani would have been the Reds’ best pitcher in 2013. The young lefty performed admirably, and although he lacks a viable third pitch, he should continue to succeed in 2014.

The rotation, as a whole, was one of the best in all of baseball last season. Take a look at where the Reds starters ranked in comparison to the 29 other MLB teams in 2013.

Aside from K/9, the team consistently ranked within the league’s top 5-10. The team will see a slight boost in some of its’ metrics as Cingrani takes over full-time starting duties, and the arrival of Robert Stephenson sometime during the 2014 season should help as well.

Providing the team doesn’t jump the gun on Homer Bailey and deal him elsewhere, and also that Johnny Cueto can stay healthy over a full season, Cincinnati’s starting rotation should again be one of the best in baseball. 

Walt Jocketty

Say what you will about Jocketty‘s recent offseason moves, or lack thereof, the man knows how to build a winning team. Jocketty took over the role of GM in back in 2008, and the team has since compiled a .528 winning percentage over 972 games.

Jocketty has made two signings this offseason. The seventh-year GM brought in veteran backstop Brayan Pena and a savvy middle-infielder in Skip Schumaker.

Neither player is going to get the Reds over the hump, but they could be key pieces for upcoming moves that would put the team square in World Series contention. 

The signing of Pena creates a log jam at catcher. With three catchers on the roster—Pena, Ryan Hanigan and Devin Mesoraco—the Reds will certainly look to deal either Hanigan or Mesoraco.

According to Ken Rosenthal, Hanigan is as good as gone.

Moving Hanigan would certainly bring the Reds back a decent prospect, but the possibility of moving Mesoraco and his impressive potential could net the Reds an even greater return.

Beyond what the Reds can do with their excess of catchers though, the team has also been heavily involved with trade rumors surrounding All-Star second baseman Brandon Phillips.

By most measures, Phillips had a down year in 2013. The 32-year-old slashed .261/.310/.396 with 18 home runs, 103 RBI and 80 runs scored. Phillips’ struggles aren’t just limited to this season though. In each of the last three years, we’ve seen drops in all three triple slash components, extra-base hits, ISO, OPS+ and runs created.

Phillips steady decline since the 2011 season has surely damaged his trade value, but he does carry significant value as an above-average offensive second baseman with a well above-average glove.

According to Ken Rosenthal, “Phillips is a goner.” Phillips could help bring the Reds a much needed source of right-handed power, to replace Ryan Ludwick, who was injured for most of 2013, and largely ineffective after his return.

Whatever the Reds final decision on Hanigan, Mesoraco, Phillips and others may be, with the group of players they have, and Jocketty‘s keen eye for talent, the Reds will be in contention in 2014.

Joey Votto and Jay Bruce

That core group of players I just referenced is anchored by first baseman Joey Votto and right fielder Jay Bruce. The duo has been a key part of the Reds roster now for six years years—which includes both of their rookie seasons—and are locked up through 2017 and 2024 respectively.

Over the past six years, Votto and Bruce have combined for some impressive numbers.

While the duo of Votto and Bruce alone is not enough to win the Reds a World Series title, it’s certainly enough to build around. The two stars have a combined .888 OPS over those six seasons and have contributed a whopping 998 RBI for an average of 95 per-162 games played.

Votto‘s power was a huge topic of discussion last season, with fans and analysts wondering whether or not his 2012 knee injury was causing some lingering effects. However, for what it’s worth, Votto blasted 24 home runs and 30 doubles over his season.

With a full season of play, and another offseason between he and that 2012 injury, Votto should be ready to put up MVP-caliber numbers again in 2014.

With Bruce, it’s all about putting his tools together into one complete season. Bruce has immense power, and he has shown the ability to hit for average—.281 in 2010—but he’s yet to do both in the same season. Additionally, his strikeout totals have risen substantially over his six seasons, ballooning out to 185 in 2013.

Because of Bruce’s inconsistencies, the two will need a player to split them up in the lineup. Although fans bashed Dusty Baker and his aversion to batting Votto and Bruce back to back during his tenure with the club, it’s likely that the trend will continue.

Bruce, for all the great things he’s done in his career, strikes out too much to protect Votto in a lineup. The team needs a viable bat capable of getting on base at a .330-plus clip to split the two players, and if they find that, the Reds will once again have one of the best 2-3-4, or 3-4-5’s in baseball.

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Though the Indians found success in 2013, they have some weaknesses they’ll have to address before they’re ready to take the next step in 2014.

The club managed a 92-70 record in 2013. However, with the impending losses of Scott Kazmir and Ubaldo Jimenez, combined with the disappointment of players like Lonnie Chisenhall, needs have arisen at third base and also in the starting rotation.

Although they spent relatively freely in 2013, signing players like Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn and Kazmir, the Indians will likely look to add through the trade market this season, making additions even more difficult. However, the team possesses enough big-league ready prospects to address their weaknesses by pulling off these two quick trade fixes.

Starting Rotation

The Indians’ starting rotation was a pleasant surprise in 2013. The unit, as a whole, managed a 3.92 ERA with a .254/.322/.396 slash line against. The team’s ERA, batting average allowed and slugging percentage allowed all ranked within the AL’s top six teams.

With that said, the team faces substantial losses this offseason, as both Jimenez and Kazmir appear to be on their way out. The two earned 23 of the rotation’s 59 wins, with a combined 3.65 ERA over 340.2 innings pitched.

The team’s rotation, in its current state, without Kazmir and Jimenez, would look like this.

The team would have to rely upon a rather volatile starting rotation. While Masterson is a legitimate ace and Salazar has the makings of a front-end starter in this league, the drop-off from there could be significant.

Both McAllister and Kluber turned in solid seasons, but they’ll be relied upon more heavily in 2014 and it’s unclear how they’ll perform as their workloads increase. After that, the Indians would be looking to the oft-injured Tomlin, wildly inconsistent and headstrong prospect Bauer and Carrasco, who profiles better as a reliever.

For that reason, the team should look to acquire another starting pitcher.

Some options for the Indians include Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Jeff Samardzija and Rick Porcello. Of the four, it seems as though Porcello would be the best fit, and also the easier of the four to acquire.

Porcello would be a great acquisition for the Tribe. The 24-year-old righty is under club control through 2015, and although his numbers don’t suggest it, he’s a solid starter with top-tier capabilities.

Consider Porcello’s numbers from the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons.

Porcello has shown improvement across the board in statistical measures since breaking in with the Tigers back in 2009. The young righty has seen improvements in his xFIP and SIERA values, both of which are designed to measure a pitcher’s true ability, while also predicting “future accomplishments”(per Fangraphs.com).

Porcello also does a masterful job of keeping the ball on the ground, as evidenced by his plus-1.00 GB/FB ratio. That quality is hard to come by in young starters, and as Porcello’s GB/FB rate continues to improve, so should the rest of his measurables.

Aside from the fact that the Indians would have to strike a deal with a rival, the Indians and Tigers are a good fit as far as trade partners go. The Tigers are looking to replenish what is arguably the worst farm system in baseball—29th according to Baseball America’s most recent rankings.

The Indians system ranks 23rd on that same Baseball America list, but big-league-ready talent like Trevor Bauer, Jose Ramirez and others could certainly bring the Indians another starter of Porcello’s ability level.

Third Base

The Indians have a clear weakness at third base.

Lonnie Chisenhall was supposed to step in as the team’s everyday third baseman following the departures of Jhonny Peralta and Jack Hannahan, respectively. Unfortunately for the Indians, to this point, Chisenhall has proven unable to achieve the lofty potential that once landed him a spot as Baseball America‘s No. 25 prospect prior to the 2011 season. 

Through 203 career games, Chisenhall owns a .244/.284/.411 slash line with 23 home runs, 36 doubles, 74 RBI and 73 runs scored.

It’s becoming more and more clear that Chisenhall is not the answer for the Tribe at third base. Although he’s young, the team is looking to compete for a division title in 2013, and weaknesses need to be addressed.

The hole could be filled by adding Padres third baseman Chase Headley. According to the Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo, the “growing sentiment” is that Headley will be traded this offseason as the two sides have yet to work out a long-term deal.

Headley suffered through a down season in 2013, totaling a .250/.347/.400 slash line with 13 home runs, 35 doubles, 50 RBI and 59 runs scored. However, even Headley’s down season is better than Chisenhall at this point.

Consider the two and their contributions over the past three seasons—remember that Chisenhall has never played 100 games in any season.

Headley is better in nearly every statistical measure, including on-base percentage, runs created, slugging percentage, and clutch hitting (WPA/LI) where he bests Chisenhall by a large margin.

The Indians ranked fifth in the AL in on-base percentage last year, and while that rank is certainly respectable, Chisenhall’s .270 OBP was the lowest of any Indians position player with 10-plus plate appearances. Adding Headley and his career .350 OBP would be a significant addition to an already potent lineup.

As the following chart shows, Headley is no slouch in the field either and would prove to be a welcome upgrade in that regard as well.

Last season, Headley proved to be the more capable defender. Although there’s a rather large discrepancy in the number of innings played, Headley bested Chisenhall in multiple defensive measures.

The only area where Chisenhall comes out on top is RZR, which measures “the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out,” per Fangraphs.com. This is due to the large gap in fielding opportunities between him and Headley. Given the rest of the data available, with more opportunities in the field, Chisenhall’s RZR would have surely dropped.

Headley, with his current contract, would be a one-year rental. However, given the Indians’ measly salary commitments heading into the 2014 season, a long-term deal is a legitimate possibility.

Given Headley’s drop-off in 2013, the asking price for his services will have surely declined, making it significantly easier for the Tribe to acquire the 29-year-old this offseason.

All stats courtesy of Fangraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The MLB offseason is one of the most exciting and most hectic periods of any professional sports season.

With a bevy of free agents and trade candidates circulating through the rumor mill, it can be pretty easy to lose sight of reality. Luckily, we here at Bleacher Report have you covered.

In this article, I’ll give you the definitive guide on how to follow the 2013-14 offseason rumor mill. We’ll look at key Twitter accounts to follow, unique sites to bookmark, big names to track, trackers and lists to follow, and finally a guide on how to separate legitimate rumors from fantasy.

So sit back, grab your pen and paper, and be sure to take notes!

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With free agency looming, and trade rumors swirling, the Indians look poised to make a big splash in the 2013-14 offseason.

Cleveland’s salary commitments total a measly $48.28 million for the 2014 season, so the team figures to play heavily in the free-agency market. Additionally, given the team’s depth at middle infield, and in the outfield, the Tribe could also be a major player on various trading blocks.

With that said, there are some big moves to be made in Cleveland, and four of them—outlined below—could actually happen. Beginning with the Tribe acquiring David Price.

Trade for David Price

On the surface, David Price’s 2013 season looks like a solid bit of regression from his impressive Cy Young Award-winning campaign in 2012. However, dig a little deeper, and you’ll find that Price’s perceived struggles are the product of some early-season struggles.

Through the season’s first two months, Price’s BAbip hovered at an insanely high mark of .335. However, after returning from a triceps injury that sidelined him for half of May, and all of June, that number progressed toward his career average of .281, as Price was able to regain elite form through the season’s second half.

As ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden notes (Insider subscription required), landing Price this offseason would require a major prospect haul. Luckily for the Indians, they have the MLB-ready talent to pull the move off. 

Any move for Price would have to begin with the Indians top-prospect, Francisco Lindor. The 19-year-old shortstop is one of baseball’s top prospects, and ranks within the Top 10 on multiple top-prospect lists including Jonathan Mayo‘s, and Mike Rosenbaum‘s year-end top-100s—No. 5 and No. 10 respectively.

Lindor is a rare talent at shortstop. Although he doesn’t possess the power of Troy Tulowitzki, or the speed of Dee Gordon, Lindor is adept in all areas of the game and possesses plus-defensive skills, and the potential for a plus-hit tool.

After Lindor, it’s likely the Rays would require the inclusion of former-top prospect Danny Salazar, along with the team’s No. 5 prospect, Tyler Naquin.

Salazar, a 23-year-old starter, made huge strides in 2013 and threw 145 innings across three different professional levels—Double-A, Triple-A and MLB. Salazar figures to make the team’s starting rotation as a full-time big leaguer next year and could be a major piece in the Indians future, or that of any perspective trade partner.

Naquin spent parts of the 2013 season in High-A Carolina and Double-A Akron. The 22-year-old struggled at times, working to a .269/.334/.405 slash line with 46 extra-base hits (10 home runs), 48 RBI, 78 runs scored and 15 stolen bases.

Price is under club control through the 2015 season, so the asking price could be steep. High-A catcher Tony Wolters could help sweeten the deal though, as the Rays are clearly looking to shore up their catching situation.

Whatever the Rays asking price is though, the Indians clearly have the goods to bring former Cy Young Award winner to Cleveland.

Sign Kendrys Morales

Signing Kendrys Morales could solve a few issues for the Indians. Consider the team’s offense and where it ranked in these categories last season.

The Indians ranked around the middle of the pack in most offensive categories, including batting average, slugging percentage, home runs, triples and doubles.

Morales on the other hand, had another solid season, in which he slashed .277/.336/.449 with 23 home runs, 34 doubles, 80 RBI and 64 runs scored. Morales would provide a nice source of power, run production and on-base percentage to the middle of the Indians lineup.

Morales, a free agent, received a qualifying offer from the Mariners so signing him would cost the Indians a first round draft pick. However, the Indians will likely receive a first round draft pick from whatever team chooses to sign Ubaldo Jimenez, so the transaction would result in a wash.

The move would also solidify the Indians DH slot, while also giving them the option to rotate he and Carlos Santana between the DH and first-base spot. The move also allows Nick Swisher to move to the outfield full time, where his bat is more valuable.

At 30 years old, Morales should be in line for a three-year-deal worth about $24-27 million. Given the Indians low salary commitments for 2014, signing Morales would hardly break the bank.

Trade for Lance Lynn/Shelby Miller

Asdrubal Cabrera has become expendable for the Indians. In Mike Aviles, the team has a capable stop gap to fill in until Francisco Lindor is ready to take over on a full-time basis—if he’s not there by Opening Day.

Because of this, the team should look to capitalize on Cabrera’s bounce-back potential over the final year of his existing contract.

Based on previous interest between the two teams, a perfect fit for Cabrera would be the St. Louis Cardinals. The team is nearly void of weaknesses, but the shortstop position remains an issue for a team looking to return to the World Series in 2014.

Over the course of the 2013 season, Cardinals shortstops combined for some paltry numbers.

Because of this dismal showing from the shortstop position, the Cardinals are on the hunt for a new shortstop. As Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com notes, the Cardinals possess a stockpile of young, cheap, high-caliber starters on their roster, and could look to trade Rookie of the Year candidate Shelby Miller.

Additionally, as Joe Strauss of stltoday.com notes, the Cardinals may be interested in trading another starter, that being Lance Lynn. Lynn has settled in as a solid No. 3 starter at the big league level, and while he doesn’t possess the potential of Miller, he’s a dependable, above-average starter.

The two trades present two very different options. Acquiring Shelby Miller will likely require Cabrera, plus a mid-high level prospect. On the other hand, dealing for Lynn could result in a straight-up deal.

If the Indians decided that they could not part with the high-level prospects it would take to land Price, then a deal for either Lynn or Miller is a strong possibility given the needs of both teams.

Sign Brian Wilson

After an elbow injury—and the ensuing Tommy John surgery—that cost him the bulk of both the 2012, and 2013 seasons, Brian Wilson looked to be in top-form during his tenure with the Dodgers late last year. The 31-year-old reliever appeared in 18 games last season, allowing a 0.66 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP with per-nine averages of 8.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 5.3 H/9.

Wilson spent his previous seven seasons as a member of the Giants, with varying levels of success. The pinnacle of his career though came in 2010 when he recorded 48 saves, allowing just a 1.81 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP while striking out 11.2 batters per-nine innings.

Wilson fell out of favor in San Francisco after his surgery, but he looks to have righted the ship as of late.

The most telling sign of Wilson’s return to greatness, was the return of his fastball and sinker velocity. Consider the following chart, detailing Wilson’s fastball and sinker velocity over his last four months of play.

Wilson could be a big signing for the Tribe since they recently parted ways with closer Chris Perez.

Although he didn’t close out a game for the Dodgers last season, Wilson exhibited that he still has the ability to do so. Wilson would likely come with a one-year deal at a relatively low cost—significantly lower than that of a top-tier free agent like Joe Nathan—making his coming to Cleveland a real possibility.

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The Cleveland Indians, like every other team in the league, will have to make some important player personnel decisions in the upcoming offseason. The Indians have low salary commitments in 2014, totaling just $49.28 million, so the potential is there for them to retain their key players while also being a big player in the free-agent market.

Considering there aren’t many high-profile names on the market this season—Robinson Cano is far-and-away the biggest name on the list—the Indians will likely focus on bringing back their own players and building through their farm system. 

There are other teams that could be interested in several players on the Indians’ roster, though, including Scott Kazmir, Ubaldo Jimenez, Drew Stubbs and Joe Smith. Jimenez is the most attractive target and will likely be the most difficult to retain.

With their situation explained, let’s examine the 10 most important arbitration-eligible, free-agent players on the Indians’ roster heading into the 2013-14 offseason.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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The Tigers traveled to Oakland to take on the A’s in Game 1 of this ALDS matchup. The A’s sent Bartolo Colon the hill with Max Scherzer on the bump for the Tigers.

The Tigers got to Colon early tonight, striking for three runs in the top half of the first inning. Colon has settled in since then, but three runs could be enough for Max Scherzer and the Tigers.

Those three runs proved to be the deciding factor in tonight’s game as Scherzer was on top of his game through seven strong innings. Although he allowed a two-run homer off the bat of Yoenis Cespedes, Scherzer managed to stifle the A’s through much of the game, allowing just three hits and two walks while striking out 11.

Colon lost control of his pitch count early on tonight and although he was able to take it down a notch, he still racked up plenty of pitches and the A’s elected to relieve him in the seventh, in favor of Dan Otero.

Otero and Sean Doolittle pitched 1.1 and 1.2 innings respectively, in relief of Colon. The two combined to allow zero hits and zero walks, while striking out three over the game’s final three innings.

The Tigers’ bullpen, a shaky unit in the regular season, matched them stride-for-stride over two solid innings in relief of Scherzer. Drew Smyly turned in 0.2 innings of work allowing no hits and no walks, striking out two.

Joaquin Benoit came in to close the game out and earn a rare four-out save. The 35-year-old closer got his out in the eighth, and then went on to strike out the side in the ninth, earning a save in his first appearance of the 2013 postseason.

The Tigers took it to the A’s early, but even with this early display of offense, this one was very much a pitching duel.

That’s it for Game 1 of the ALDS here in Oakland, but these two teams will meet again tomorrow at 9:00 p.m. ET. Goodnight everybody!

Final Box Score

DET 3, OAK 2

W: Max Scherzer: 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 11 K

L: Bartolo Colon 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 4 K

SV: Joaquin Benoit: 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 3 K

2B: A. Jackson (1), V. Martinez (1)

3B: Y. Cespedes (1)

HR: Y. Cespedes (1)

Be sure to tweet along with the game so I can get your thoughts integrated into the blog. You can follow me on Twitter at @TylerDuma, and I’ll do my best to post them here.

If Twitter’s not your thing, leave your thoughts in the comment section below to spark some discussion.

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