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Building Ubaldo Jimenez’s Case to Start for Indians in Game 1 of MLB Playoffs

Despite a two-game losing streak, the Cleveland Indians find themselves just 1.5 games back of the fifth and final playoff spot in the American League. The Indians trail just three teams, those being the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers. The problem, though, is that the Indians will need to win games while relying on others to beat either New York, Tampa Bay or Texas.

However, for the purposes of this article, we’re going to assume that the Cleveland Indians make the postseason. In this case, we’ll assign them the second wild-card spot, as that is the most likely scenario in which they make the playoffs.

If the Indians take the fifth spot, and the rest of the standings hold the same, here’s how the American League playoff seeding would look:

  1. Boston (East)
  2. Oakland (West)
  3. Detroit (Central)
  4. Texas (WC)
  5. Cleveland (WC)

This, being the most likely playoff scenario, would set up the Indians for an away game against the Rangers in a one-game playoff for the right to play Boston in the ALDS. The Indians would need to choose one starter to take on the Rangers, who would likely send Yu Darvish to the mound.

Runs are hard to come by against Darvish. The 27-year-old Cy Young Award candidate boasts a 12-8 record with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He also averages 11.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.67 K/BB and 6.2 H/9.

For that reason alone, the Indians need to be careful who they select as their starter in the Wild Card Round. Beyond who the Indians will see on the hill as an offense, though, whoever they start in that game will face one of the most daunting offenses in all of baseball.

Take a look at these key offensive categories and where the Rangers rank both in the AL and baseball as a whole.

In addition to the stout offense the Rangers front office has put together, the team plays in a very, very hitter-friendly ballpark. To this point, The Ballpark at Arlington has surrendered a whopping 2.01 HR/G, with an average distance of 401.1 feet—according to hittrackeronline.com.

In a perfect world, Justin Masterson would take the hill for this matchup. The Indians ace has an impressive 1.45 GB/FB ratio in 2013 with a mark of 1.31 over the course of his career, and while ground balls play well in any stadium, they play especially well in Arlington.

Unfortunately for the Indians, though, Masterson is a huge liability at this juncture. The 28-year-old was pulled from his last start on Sept. 2 with a strained oblique and has been on the mend ever since.

According to MLB.com, Masterson had no hiccups in a recent throwing session—he played catch from 90 feet—but he is not yet ready to pitch in a game. The playoffs are right around the corner, and with the wild-card play-in game taking place on Oct. 2, there’s very little time for Masterson to properly rehab his ailing oblique.

For this reason, the Indians need to start Ubaldo Jimenez in the one-game playoff.

This extends beyond the injury concerns surrounding Masterson, though. The playoffs are all about momentum, and at the moment there may not be a hotter pitcher in all of baseball than Jimenez.

In nine post-All-Star break starts, Jimenez owns a 1.94 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP while averaging 10.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.86 K/BB and 7.3 H/9.

The chart below displays Jimenez splits over the first and second half of the MLB season.

Don’t let anybody tell you that Jimenez has been lucky in the season’s second half. Something has clicked for the former All-Star and it’s shown in his play over the latter half of the year.

Jimenez’s incredible turnaround is due largely in part to his improved ability to limit walks and miss bats. This improvement can be traced directly to an increase in velocity across all of his pitches.

This final chart shows the difference in the average velocity of Jimenez’s seven pitches between June and September of 2013—according to Brooksbaseball.net.

Jimenez has seen a stark rise in fastball velocity; however, it’s the difference in the velocity of his splitter that has been the most important.

A well-placed 92 mph fastball—Sept. 2012 velocity—is still a good pitch. However, the difference between an 83 mph splitter and an 86 mph one is the difference between that pitch breaking from mid-thigh to the knees and mid-thigh to the shins.

Jimenez finally has the out pitch he’s been missing for the past two seasons with the Indians and it’s shown in the uptick in his strikeout rate from 21.7 percent in the first half up to 27 percent in the second.

The Rangers are a patient team at the plate. As a team, they’ve struck out in just 17.1 percent of their plate appearances while walking at a 7.6 percent clip.

The Indians will need a pitcher on the mound capable of matching Darvish‘s strikeout potential while also being able to limit the amount of opposing baserunners.

Over his last nine starts, Jimenez has been as good as anybody. He’s gotten his strikeout rate up to an impressive 27 percent, while his walk and hit percentages have dipped to 9.0 and 19.3 percent, respectively.

To put how good he’s been in perspective over the second half, Darvish‘s percentages are as follows: 33.7 strikeout percentage, 9.8 walk percentage and 16.7 hit percentage.

Jimenez is the closest thing the Indians have to an ace right now, and they should utilize it in this one-game, winner-take-all scenario.

 

Stats come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com—unless otherwise noted—and are current through play on Sept. 12, 2013.

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How the Cleveland Indians Match Up Against Every Potential AL Playoff Opponent

The Cleveland Indians are in prime position to make the postseason for the first time since 2007. With just 19 games left in the regular season, the Tribe find themselves 1.5 games back of the fifth and final playoff spot.

In addition to that final playoff spot being within reach, the Indians have an outside chance at grabbing the top wild-card spot if they can make up the five-game difference separating them and the Texas Rangers. The AL playoff picture is a crowded one, featuring nine teams within four games of some sort of playoff spot.

For the Indians, the most likely scenario involves them snagging one of the wild-card spots, pitting them in a one-game playoff with one of six teams—the Red Sox and Tigers will likely win their respective divisions.

In this article I’ll break down the matchups between the Indians and each of their eight possible playoff opponents. For the Wild Card Rounds, we’ll look at how the teams compare in a one-game, winner-take all scenario, while in the division and championship round matchups, we’ll look at how they’ll hold up over a five-game series.

We’ll begin with the division leaders and an analysis of how the teams compare, followed by the Wild Card Round analysis.

Up first are the AL West-leading Oakland A’s.

 

All stats come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and are current through play on Sept. 9, 2013.

For this article, we’ll use Justin Masterson as the proposed Game 1 starter in all postseason matchups. His recent oblique injury has given way to some doubt as to whether or not he will be available in October. However, as it stands, he’s expected back in time (per Cleveland.com).

 

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Stock Up, Stock Down for Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects for Week 21

Teams throughout the Cincinnati Reds farm system are coming into the final games of the 2013 season. Players have proven just about all they can to this point, but some are still fighting for positions on the Reds’ roster when they expand to 40 players on September 1st.

Certain prospects, including some on this list, already have a spot on the 40-man roster and will make their way to Cincinnati next week. Others used last week and this one as well as a springboard to the Queen City for the playoff stretch.

While there are several players on this list vying for spots on the 40-man, others are inevitably going to be left off in favor of other players. That’s not to say they haven’t had impressive seasons in their own right.

Players like Jesse Winker, Robert Stephenson and Phillip Ervin have been incredible. Unfortunately, they just aren’t ready to take that big of a step. 

In any event, it was a busy week in the Reds’ farm system and some players have continued to prove their worth to the organization, while others are falling out of favor quickly.

Here’s the weekly stock report for the team’s top prospects.

 

All stats come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted and are current through play on Aug. 25, 2013.

Prospect rankings come from the Cincinnati Reds official site, where they were re-ranked at midseason by Jonathan Mayo.

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Cleveland Indians: 3 Post-Deadline Moves the Tribe Could Still Make

The Cleveland Indians didn’t make much noise at the MLB trade deadline. The team chose to add Marc Rzepczynski in an attempt to shore up what has been a shaky bullpen in 2013.

The team’s left-handed relief situation has been abysmal in 2013, and while Rzepczynski may help to clean that up, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be enough of an addition to warrant ignoring other options.

For teams in the situation the Indians find themselves in, there are still options. Players who clear waivers can be claimed or traded for, and it provides savvy, forward-thinking teams the opportunity to add pieces they missed out on at the deadline.

Beyond the potential for a waiver deal is the idea of adding from within. The Indians have a few impact prospects who could step in and make their mark in a big way at the major league level.

For the Indians, there are several potential additions to be made in the bullpen, starting rotation and possibly the infield. Those three areas are the ones we’ll look at here as we examine several moves the Indians could still make this season.

The Indians roster, in its current form, could make a run at the postseason, but should they falter, changes will need to follow. Even if they keep pace with the rival Detroit Tigers, the team may look to make a move or two in order to put them over the top.

Here are three moves the Indians could still look to make.

 

Trade for Javier Lopez

The Indians were rumored to have interest in Giants‘ reliever Javier Lopez prior to the trade deadline. The Giants demanded prospect Danny Salazar in return, and the potential for a deal became nonexistent (per Paul Hoynes).

Salazar is scheduled to make another spot start on Wednesday against the Tigers, giving further credit to the idea that the front office isn’t going to part with him for anything less than a top-tier player (via ESPN.com).

Despite being unable to come to terms on a deal to move Lopez, the Giants may still be inclined to move the veteran lefty. Given his impending free-agent status, the Giants could look to cash in on his remaining value.

Having been rumored as a trade partner prior to the deadline, the Indians would again make sense as a landing spot for Lopez if one of two things happens, the first being that newcomer Rzepczynski completely flops with the Tribe.

Rzepczynski has never been a huge part of any bullpen. His career numbers are solidly underwhelming—4.19 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in 178 appearances. Beyond that though, his numbers this season are hardly awe-inspiring.

In 12 appearances at the big league level, the 27-year-old owns a 7.15 ERA with a 1.77 WHIP. After those 12 outings, Rzepczynski was sent down to Triple-A Memphis, where he’s posted a 3.05 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP and per-nine ratios of 6.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.72 K/BB and 8.9 H/9.

Rzepczynski‘s 3.05 ERA at Triple-A is somewhat inspiring given the 7.15 mark he posted at the big league level prior to his demotion, but his per-nine ratios in Memphis, if translated to the major league level, would represent totals worse than his career averages.

Rzepczynski did have a successful first outing with the Tribe, posting a perfect inning against the Marlins on Aug. 2.

The other possibility is that the addition of Rzepczynski just isn’t enough to solidify the Indians’ bullpen. 

If either of these two ideas come to fruition, Lopez could be the perfect addition. Since 2008, Lopez owns a stellar set of ratios, including a 2.69 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 1.66 K/BB and 8.2 H/9.

Lopez possesses some stellar splits, including a .215/.299/.305 slash line against lefties. Although he isn’t great against righties—.300/.386/.425—he is better at what he does than Rzepczynski.

Due to the Giants’ failure to move Lopez at the deadline, the asking price could come down significantly, leading to the possibility of a post-deadline deal for the Indians.

 

Trade for Michael Young

Lonnie Chisenhall has been dreadful in 2013. Over 59 games with the Tribe, the 24-year-old owns a .237/.281/.389 slash line to go along with six home runs, 26 RBI and 20 runs scored.

Chisenhall‘s offensive numbers aren’t horrible. Consider how those numbers would translate over a 162 game season.

Lonnie Chisenhall PA AB H 2B HR RBI R K BB
162-game averages 579 543 129 32 16 71 54 109 27

Chisenhall‘s numbers, as you can see, aren’t as bad when placed in a certain context. However, there are some issues here, including his alarmingly poor 4:1 K/BB ratio through 59 games this year.

In addition to that, Chisenhall has been a sufficiently below average fielder over the course of his career. Although he’s made 33 plays out of his fielding zone (OOZ), Chisenhall owns a -4.6 UZR in his career and, given his less-than-stellar slash line, the Indians could look for some outside help.

Michael Young was one of the biggest names on the trading block heading into the trade deadline. Young is an adept hitter capable of hitting the ball to all fields. Along with that, he’d be a slight upgrade defensively.

Young is a career .300/.346/.442 hitter with 162-game averages of 16 home runs, 86 RBI, 95 runs scored and a stellar 102:48 K/BB ratio. 

Young is slashing .273/.338/.398, and although those mark substantial departures from his career averages, Young brings a solid OBP along with a great veteran presence.

Playoff experience is a key component to a stretch run, and Young brings plenty of it—34 games worth to be exact—including two trips to the World Series as a member of the Texas Rangers.

 

Promote Danny Salazar Permanently

The Indians may be apprehensive to do this, but Salazar could find his way into the rotation permanently prior to season’s end.

As discussed in my previous piece, the Tribe’s rotation has been better as of late. Most recently, Corey Kluber turned in 7.1 innings of six-hit, one-walk baseball. Kluber struck out six in what amounted to a solid display of pitching ability, only to have his win blown by Chris Perez.

The starting rotation has been better lately. Even the wildly inconsistent Ubaldo Jimenez owns a stellar 3.01 ERA dating back to May 27. 

There’s still some worry though as to how long the rotation—mainly Jimenez and Scott Kazmir—can keep up its current pace. If and when they do falter, the team would do well to call upon Salazar to become a mainstay in the starting rotation.

Salazar boasts an impressive 2.70 ERA in 13 starts—14 total appearances—with the Tribe’s Triple-A affiliate in Columbus. 

The 23-year-old righty was called up once already this season and tossed a gem against the Toronto Blue Jays. Over 6.1 innings pitched, Salazar dominated the Jays, allowing just one run on two hits and a walk, while striking out seven.

Salazar, as previously mentioned, is slated to start against division rival Detroit on Wednesday night. His start will carry significant weight in the organization’s decision as to whether or not he remains with the team on a long-term basis in 2013.

Salazar’s promotion will depend largely on two things: how the aforementioned start goes, and how the rest of the starting staff holds up over the season’s final two months. Should Jimenez or Kazmir falter, Salazar would be the next in line to take their place.

 

All stats come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and are current through play on Aug. 5, 2013.

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Cincinnati Reds: Why a Giancarlo Stanton Trade Will Never Happen

The Cincinnati Reds are in a position to buy at the MLB trade deadline. The July 31 deadline is rapidly approaching, and although the Reds are not in need of any major changes, one name is continuously tossed around by fans looking for a big shake-up.

That player is Miami Marlins outfielder, Giancarlo Stanton.

Stanton is a feared hitter capable of putting up gaudy home run and RBI totals. Beyond Stanton’s incredible talent, though, is the fact that he’s just 23 years old and under team control through 2016.

Hitting fourth in a lineup like the one Cincinnati possesses would set Stanton up to be one of the most valuable players in all of baseball, but is he really a possibility in Cincinnati?

 

The Fit

We’ll start with how well Stanton actually fits in with the Reds’ current roster.

Stanton is a right fielder. In fact, he’s played just one game away from the position in his big league career. Therefore, acquiring him would require the Reds to shift him to a new, unfamiliar position.

While there’s little doubt in my mind that Stanton could adjust to left field, it is a concern given the outfield depth the Reds already possess. Stanton would have to slot in to left field for the time being, or at least until Ryan Ludwick returns from the DL.

If and when that time does come, the Reds would have to bench Ludwick in favor of Stanton. Although this is an easy decision from a production standpoint, it’s a difficult financial bullet to bite.

The Reds have never been the type of team to dole out big contracts to non-essential players, but they did this past offseason when they signed Ludwick to a two-year, $15 million contract ($7.5 million of which is owed to him next season).

Ludwick would be relegated to a bench role for the rest of the 2013 season, creating a grossly overpaid backup outfielder. This now brings us to next season. 

Shin-Soo Choo will likely move on to another team, creating a void in center field. Ludwick will still slot in at left field, leaving Stanton and Bruce to fight over center field and right field. 

Bruce is the most likely candidate for a position change given his experience in center—205 minor league and 35 major league games at the position. But are the Reds comfortable doing that? Possibly.

 

The Trade Package

Fitting Stanton into the order isn’t really the big issue here. The trickiest part of any deal for the young slugger would be assembling a trade package that could actually bring him to Cincinnati.

The problem for the Reds in this scenario is that they may not have enough high level prospects to nab Stanton.

Consider the Reds’ top 10 prospects, their rankings within the system, their positions and their current/future 2-8 overall scouting grades (per cincinnatireds.com). 

 

Name Position Current Future
1. Billy Hamilton CF  5  6
2. Robert Stephenson SP  5  6
3. Nick Travieso SP  5  6
4. Phil Ervin RF/CF  4  5
5. Jesse Winker LF  4  5
6. Michael Lorenzen RP/OF  4  5
7. Daniel Corcino SP  5  6
8. Ryan Wright 2B  5  5
9. Sean Buckley 3B  4  5
10. Sal Romano SP  4  5

 

Players with a future grade of six rank above average, while those with a grade of four or five are considered below average and average, respectively.

The Reds have several prospects with high floors and high ceilings—e.g. Hamilton, Stephenson, Corcino and Travieso. They also have mid-level prospects like Wright and Winker who could be everyday contributors on a big league team.

Factor in newcomers like Ervin and Lorenzen, and the Reds have an intriguing mix of prospects.

The problem here though is that, outside of Stephenson and Hamilton, none of these prospects have star potential. Hamilton himself is no guarantee, and although he’s shown signs of life over his last 20 games at Triple-A, one has to worry about his disappointing showing this season.

Corcino is in the midst of a wildly disappointing season, and his trade value has never been lower. As for Stephenson, he’s enjoyed a superb season with both Low-A Dayton and High-A Bakersfield. 

Travieso is only 19 years old and has yet to progress beyond Low-A ball. That’s no knock on his ability, but the Marlins would be looking for players who could contribute at the big league level in 2014 or 2015, at the latest.

As far as prospects are concerned, the beginning point of any deal for Stanton would have to be Stephenson and Hamilton. If Hamilton is able to get on base at a .350+ clip at the major league level, he’ll be a star in this game. On the flip side, if he were to continue upon his current path—.307 OBP at Triple-A—he’d be no better than a Dee Gordon-type player.

Stephenson’s upside projects to a one or two starter, and he could be a valuable asset for the Marlins. Beyond that though, unless the Marlins see potential in Corcino, there aren’t any big-name prospects who could solidify this deal.

Enter Aroldis Chapman. The Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Erardi tossed around the idea of trading Chapman and even pondered as to whether or not the Marlins would be interested in him.

The Marlins could very well be interested in Chapman, but they already have a very talented closer in Steve Cishek. For that reason, the team’s interest in Chapman could hinge on his willingness to transition into a starting role.

The Reds tried to convert Chapman last offseason, but the resurgence of Mike Leake, coupled with Chapman’s desire to remain a closer, led them to return Chapman to the back of the bullpen.

Perhaps more importantly than Chapman’s willingness to start, however, is the Reds’ willingness to trade him.

If Chapman goes, then the Reds need to decide on a new closer. Generally, this wouldn’t be an issue, as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Broxton could step in to fill that void. However, neither of the two are healthy at this juncture, and J.J. Hoover has yet to prove that he can limit his walks in clutch situations—4.0 BB/9 this year.

Some final food for thought here: Consider another trade the Marlins made back in 2007. When the Tigers decided to cash in on the potential of Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, the Marlins received a major haul of prospects.

Now, while that prospect haul amounted to what can now be looked at as a whole lot of nothing, consider what the Marlins thought they were getting at the time (prospects obtained via ESPN.com).

  • CF, Cameron Maybin (Baseball America‘s No. 6 prospect pre-2007)
  • SP, Andrew Miller (Baseball America‘s No. 10 prospect pre-2007)
  • P, Eulogio De La Cruz (Tigers’ No. 6 prospect pre-2007, per-Baseball America)
  • P, Dallas Trahern (Tigers’ No. 8 prospect pre-2007, per Baseball America)
  • SP, Burke Bradenhop (N/A)
  • C, Mike Rabelo (N/A)

To sum up the prospect haul, the Marlins received two top-10 prospects from Baseball-America’s Top 100, two prospects within the organization’s top 10 and two additional prospects.

A comparable package from the Reds—including Chapman—would look something like this.

  • RP, Aroldis Chapman
  • CF, Billy Hamilton (MLB.com‘s No. 19 prospect mid-2013)
  • SP, Robert Stephenson (MLB.com‘s No. 20 prospect mid-2013)
  • SP, Sal Romano (Reds’ No. 10 prospect mid-2013, per Cincinnatireds.com)

 

Props to my fellow Featured Columnist Kyle Newport for suggesting this comparison.

 

Conclusion

A package including Chapman, Hamilton, Stephenson, Romano and Soto would be a great starting point for Stanton. However, there’s no telling how much it will take given the stance Marlins GM Jeff Loria has taken on trading Stanton.

According to New York Post blogger Joel Sherman’s Twitter, the Pirates and Rangers have repeatedly been turned away by Loria and say Loria has little, if any, interest in moving the young slugger.

The Reds could use a power bat to put them over the top. While Stanton would do just that, it doesn’t seem like there’s any way for the Reds to pry him away from Miami without completely raiding the farm system and the back end of their bullpen.

Even then, it still may not be enough to land the biggest fish in Miami.

 

All stats come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted and are current through play on July 25.

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5 Trades the Cleveland Indians Should Already Be Thinking About

After the first 19 games of the season, the Indians find themselves in a curious situation. Nobody quite knows whether the Indians are for real or whether they will falter as the season continues.

As we move closer to the trade deadline, the Indians’ position in the standings will determine whether they’re buyers or sellers.

If they’re sellers, several players who are either in the final year of their contract or approaching their final year could find themselves leaving Cleveland.

If the Indians, however, find themselves in contention for the American League Central title, then they could seek to add pieces to make a run at the postseason.

With that said, here are five trades the Indians should already be thinking about.

 

All Contract information courtesy Cot’s Baseball Contracts via Baseballprospectus.com.

All Stats current through 4/26/16 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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Early Grades for All Cleveland Indians Offseason Moves

The Cleveland Indians went through a major rebuilding phase this past offseason and made numerous moves to shore up both their lineup and pitching rotation.

Through free agency and trades, the Tribe was able to bring in major pieces like Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, Mark Reynolds and several other impact players.

Some of these players have staked themselves out to hot starts and are already justifying their new contracts.

Others have been lagging behind through the team’s first 14 games and are causing fans to question whether or not the trade package, or contract, was worth it to bring them to Cleveland.

With that said, here are early grades for the Indians 2012-13 offseason moves.

 

All 2013 stats are current through April 18th, 2013 and are brought to you courtesy of Clevelandindians.com unless otherwise noted.

All 2012 stats and splits from the 2013 season courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.


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Cincinnati Reds Pummel the Washington Nationals 15-0 for 3rd Win of the Year

The Cincinnati Reds clobbered the Washington Nationals 15-0 Friday night to take home their third win of the young MLB season.

The Reds sent right-hander Homer Bailey to the mound, while the Nationals starter Dan Haren made his team debut.

The Reds spoiled Haren’s debut and sent a major statement to the baseball world following their 2-1 series victory over the Angels with Friday’s barn-burner over the Nats.

 

Offense

The offensive attack was a balanced one as 11 different Reds collected hits, including five multi-hit efforts.

Four different Reds hit home runs, including two, two-home-run games from Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier.

Shin-Soo Choo also contributed a home run, as did Xavier Paul, whose pinch-hit grand slam gave the team a 14-0 lead in the seventh inning.

The team totaled six home runs, one shy of their record while playing at Great American Ball Park.

The star of the Reds’ offensive effort though was Frazier.

Frazier logged five at-bats Friday and contributed four hits—including two home runs—to go along with four RBI and three runs scored. 

The impressive showing by Frazier raised his batting average to .471 on the season 

The Nationals on the other hand, didn’t have much of an offensive attack to speak of.

The Nats and only had four runners reach second base—none of which advanced beyond second.

The only true bright spot in a box score riddled with 0-for performances was Danny Espinosa, who was 2-for-4 with a double.

 

Pitching

Homer Bailey was on-point in his first start of the season.

The 26-year-old righty won his first game of the season behind a six-inning, six-strikeout effort.

Bailey allowed just two hits and three walks, and had it not been for numerous deep counts, he may have gone the distance.

The relief corps was also impressive. The duo of Manny Parra and J.J. Hoover combined for three innings, three hits, one strikeout and a walk.

The three Reds pitchers combined for the team’s first shutout of the season.

Conversely, the Nationals suffered through a dismal performance by both their starter Dan Haren and the bullpen.

Haren allowed six earned runs in four innings pitched coming on nine hits—four home runs—and no walks.

Haren was relieved by Zack Duke, Henry Rodriguez and Ryan Mattheus, respectively.

The trio of relievers combined for four innings pitched and allowed nine runs—eight earned—on 10 hits and a walk.

 

Wrap-Up

The Reds turned this one into a laugher when they staked themselves out to a 14-0 lead by the end of the seventh inning. 

The game was an important one for the Reds, though, who have now won three of their first four games in 2013.

The offense proved its worth tonight and showed that the Reds can play with any team in the league.

It’s obviously very early, but wins like these over quality opponents like the Nationals can go a long way toward creating confidence in the clubhouse.

Tomorrow, the Reds send Mike Leake to the hill for his first start while the Nationals are slated to start Ross Detwiler (per Cincinnatireds.com). 

Final Score: Reds-15, Nationals-0 W: Homer Bailey (1-0), L: Dan Haren (0-1)


All stats courtesy of ESPN.com.

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Cincinnati Reds: Projecting Johnny Cueto’s 2013 Season

Johnny Cueto is the ace of the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff.

This season, that role will come with a lot of notoriety as the Reds currently have the sixth best odds to win the World Series in 2013 (per Betvega.com).

Last year, through one of the most successful regular season campaigns in franchise history, Cueto was able to dominate in impressive fashion.

 

2012 Season GS W-L IP ERA ERA+ WHIP K/9 BB/9 K/BB H/9 HR/9
Johnny Cueto 33 19-9 217 2.78 152 1.17 7.1 2.0 3.47 8.5 0.6

 

 

 

Cueto was one of the best starting pitchers in baseball last year and finished in the top five in starts, ERA, wins, ERA+ and pitching WAR (per Baseball-Reference.com).

All of that 2012 success led to a fourth place finish in Cy Young Award voting.

Cueto is looking to build upon that success in 2013, and the Reds could certainly use a solid season from their ace.

Cueto was dominant in yesterday’s season opener against the Angels.

Over seven innings, Cueto allowed one run on three hits (one HR) and a walk while striking out nine (per ESPN.com).

Unfortunately, Cueto was dealt a no-decision as the offense floundered against Jered Weaver.

Cueto passed the eye-test with flying colors and held the Angels’ big four (Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols and Mark Trumbo) to a 2-11 showing with one walk (per ESPN.com).

Cueto had all of his pitches working to both sides of the plate, and if yesterday’s performance was any indication, it appears that he may be in for a monster 2013 season.

In addition to a positive start to the season, Cueto has also added a cutter to his arsenal (per Daytondailynews.com).

The 27-year-old will use that cutter to work along with a low 90s fastball, a slider, a heavy two-seam fastball and a biting changeup (per Fangraphs.com). 

Keeping batters off balance is essential to Cueto’s game.

Cueto isn’t going to overpower anyone with his fastball, but his deceptive pitching motion combined with the addition of a new pitch and improved control over his other pitches should help keep his H/9 and HR/9 numbers low.

Cueto should also be able to gather up a significant amount of wins in 2013.

Including yesterday’s start, Cueto has registered 42 quality starts in 58 attempts. That equates to a QS% of 72. That figure is significantly higher than the MLB average of 51 percent over the course of his career.

That 72 percent mark also puts him in elite company along with pitchers like Justin Verlander (78 percent), Matt Cain (73 percent), Cole Hamels (75 percent) and Clayton Kershaw (76 percent).

With an improved offense supporting him, quality starts will continue to turn into wins.

Cueto’s name has yet to become synonymous with dominance ,but 2013 will go a long way toward further solidifying his growing reputation as an ace in this league.

2013 Projections GS W-L IP ERA ERA+ WHIP K/9 BB/9 K/BB H/9 HR/9
Johnny Cueto 33 20-7 225 2.68 154 1.19 7.7 2.1 3.69 8.6 0.5

 

 

All Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted


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Cincinnati Reds: Signing Manny Parra Is a Bad Move

The Reds recently signed ex-Milwaukee Brewer Manny Parra to a one year $1 million deal with appearances bonuses that could send the value up to $1.4 million.

Parra is a 30-year-old lefty who seems to have been brought on to be the club’s new left-handed specialist now that Aroldis Chapman has moved to the starting rotation and Bill Bray has signed a minor league deal with the Washington Nationals.

The problem with him being a left-handed specialist is that he’s, well, not a specialist.

Check out his splits against right-handed and left-handed batters (per fangraphs.com)

Manny Parra IP ERA WHIP XBH BAA OBPa SLGa K/9 BB/9 K/BB H/9 HR/9
vs. LHB 129.1 4.81 1.52 41 .261 .349 .417 11.0 4.31 2.55 9.39 1.18
vs. RHB 383.2 4.78 1.69 138 .285 .371 .438 6.8 4.69 1.61 9.59 0.99

Parra isn’t a specialist, quite simply because he’s equally bad against batters on both sides of the plate.

So what exactly is Parra‘s role on the team going to be? 

Parra can eat some innings and can definitely strike batters out.

Over the course of his career, Parra owns a K/9 value of 8.40 K/9. But unfortunately, he’s going to walk batters at an unacceptably high rate for a reliever (4.60 BB/9).

Outside of the fact that he hasn’t pitched very well over the course of his career, he wasn’t even the best left-handed reliever available.

Hideki Okajima, Rich Hill, Rafael Perez and J.C. Romero are all still available (per MLBtraderumors.com free agents list).

Okajima, Hill, Perez and Romero all have better overall career numbers than Parra.

Romero, Hill and Okajima all have splits that indicate their ability to get left-handed hitters out at a more efficient rate than they do left-handers (click the links on their names for career splits). 

Though he is slightly better against right-handed hitters, Perez is still more efficient than Parra against batters from both sides of the plate (see Perez splits here).

The fact that the Reds signed Parra when these four relievers are still available seems odd, but maybe they see something in him, the same way they saw something in Jose Arredondo when they signed him following an injury.

But for now, Parra shows no signs of being a good signing for the Reds.

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