Kuzul

The Cincinnati Reds had the best bullpen in baseball last year.

Among all major league bullpens, the Reds ranked first in ERA, saves, earned runs and runs allowed. Additionally, the bullpen finished in the top five in wins, BAA, OBPa, SLGa, OPSa and K/9 (per ESPN.com).

This year, the bullpen will have something to prove with the subtraction of Aroldis Chapman, who will be taking his talents to the starting rotation. 

The team addressed this with the re-signing of Jonathan Broxton and the recent signing of Manny Para.

The Reds have re-tooled their bullpen a little bit in their last couple of months, but they still have a plethora of trustworthy arms.

One stat I will use repeatedly throughout this article is average leverage index or aLI. 

According to Baseball-Reference, average leverage index is a measure of “the average amount of pressure the pitcher or batter saw in this game or season.” With 1.00 being average pressure, anything below 1.00 signifies low pressure anything above is indicative of a high-pressure situation.

Without further adieu, here’s the entire Reds’ bullpen ranked in order of their reliability.

Bullpen based on MLBdephcharts.com.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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So, reports have surfaced that Jonathan Broxton has signed a three-year/$21 million deal. MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon confirmed the deal yesterday with this tweet.

Now it seems to be a pretty foregone conclusion that Aroldis Chapman will be the team’s fifth starter. This decision carries major implications both for the Cincinnati Reds as a team and for Aroldis Chapman’s future as a pitcher.

The first concern regarding Chapman’s move to the starting rotation is it’s effect on the Reds’ bullpen.

The team had arguably the most dominant bullpen in the Majors in 2012. Reds’ relievers finished with the best team ERA in baseball (2.65) while finishing first in saves (56), third in BAA (.219), third in OPSa (.639) and second in K/9 (9.90). 

Removing Chapman from this bullpen and replacing him with an inferior Jonathan Broxton dilutes the effectiveness of the bullpen. Chapman didn’t record his first save until mid-May and he still managed to record two more saves than Jonathan Broxton has in any season of his career.

I’m a supporter of the move to sign Broxton. However, that support only comes from the organization’s creation of a hole in the bullpen with their intentions on moving Chapman. If Chapman doesn’t pan out in the starting rotation then the Reds will move him back to the bullpen and the front office will have just doled out about $7 million-per-year for a set-up man.

The impact this has on Chapman’s career could be monumental.

Though there are instances of pitchers moving to and from the bullpen and starting rotation (i.e. John Smoltz) however, there are far more examples of relievers who had their arms ruined when they changed roles.

Neftali Feliz was shifted to the Texas Rangers‘ starting rotation this year when the team brought in Joe Nathan. Feliz pitched until May before he tore his UCL and underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery.

If you need an example closer to home there’s two that spring to mind.

Danny Graves saved 30 games in three consecutive seasons between 2000 and 2002. The Reds moved him to the starting rotation in 2003 and it was a disaster. In 30 games (26 starts), Graves pitched 169 innings allowing a 5.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with just 60 strikeouts to his credit.

Graves did save 41 games the following season with Cincinnati but he was never the same pitcher. Following his 2003 debacle, Graves never pitched over 68.1 innings in a season and averaged a 4.98 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and a whopping 11.9 H/9 for the remainder of his career.

Following the 2006 season, Danny Graves was out of Major League Baseball.

Another example comes in the form of Chicago White Sox‘ starter Chris Sale. Although he didn’t actually ruin his arm, it’s clear that he struggled with his move to the rotation.

Sale pitched wonderfully in the first half of 2012 placing himself in early Cy Young consideration. However, the second half of the season proved disastrous for the young lefty.

After pitching to a 10-2 record, with a 2.19 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 98 strikeouts to 25 walks in 102.2 innings pitched for the first half of 2012, Sale followed that up in the second half with a 4.03 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and 94 strikeouts to 26 walks in 89.1 innings pitched.

There is a possibility that Chapman moves to the starting rotation and performs well. If he does, then I’ll be happy to admit my being wrong. However, the fact of the matter is that there are far many more examples of this transition not working out than there are of it working.

The Reds have one of the most dominant closers in Major League Baseball and the idea of possibly destroying his arm in order to improve an already strong starting rotation seems risky and redundant.

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The Cincinnati Reds are heading into the winter meetings, coming off a disappointing finish to an otherwise great season by all other accounts.

The team’s pitchers turned in one of the best performances of any MLB pitching staff in 2012, and the bullpen in particular was a key component in the Reds’ success last season.

Mat Latos proved to be worth every bit of the package the Reds sent to San Diego, and Johnny Cueto turned in a season worthy of Cy Young consideration.

In addition to the success of several starters and the overall good play of the bullpen, the emergence of Aroldis Chapman proved to be the most exciting part of the Reds 2012 season. Though the team is looking to make him a starter for 2013,  

The offense sputtered, at times. but there were bright spots in the offensive production put forth by the team. Todd Frazier came through with a breakout season, Ryan Ludwick bounced back this year and Brandon Phillips continued on with being one of the most consistent second basemen in baseball.

With a healthy Joey Votto, a presumed increase in the depth of the pitching staff and defined lineup spot and position for Todd Frazier, the Reds look to be a team to beat in 2013.

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According to an article written by MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, the Cincinnati Reds are still unsure as to what role Aroldis Chapman will occupy moving forward.

After Ryan Madson suffered a season-ending injury during spring training, Sean Marshall took over the closer’s gig.

When Marshall couldn’t get the deal done, Chapman took over and was arguably the second-best closer in the National League behind Craig Kimbrel.

In 68 appearances, Chapman managed an 5-5 record with a 1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 38 saves while averaging a whopping 15.3 K/9 and 5.33 K/BB.

Chapman struck out 122 batters in just 71.2 innings pitched so I understand why Reds fans are anxious to see the highly touted left-hander to start. However, I don’t know that it’s in the club’s, or Chapman’s best interests for him to become a starter.

According to Sheldon, Walt Jocketty has determined that Chapman’s role with the team will depend on what the Reds’ closing situation is coming into spring training.

Should the Reds re-sign Jonathan Broxton or Ryan Madson, Chapman will likely move to the starting rotation.

I believe that keeping Chapman in his current role is the right course of action for the Reds.

The Reds have one of the steadiest rotations in all of baseball.

Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo and Mike Leake combined to make 161 of the team’s 162 regular season starts.

I’ll agree with the fan consensus that Leake‘s season was far from ideal. However, if Leake is the team’s fifth starter then that’s hardly a huge area of concern.

Throughout his college career and his first two years as a professional, Leake showed no signs of being the pitcher that he was in 2012.

At Arizona State, Leake had a career record of 40-6 with a 2.93 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP and 360 strikeouts to 73 walks in 390.1 innings pitched.

In his first two seasons with Cincinnati, Leake managed a 20-13 record with a 4.03 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 209 strikeouts to 87 walks in 306 innings pitched.

Leake improved between his rookie and sophomore seasons and one bad season shouldn’t be enough to just drop all hope in a player (i.e. Homer Bailey).

No one truly knows what Aroldis Chapman can do as a starter. He looked great in spring training this past year pitching to a 2.12 ERA in his five starts.

However, in Cuba, Chapman pitched to a 24-19 record with an ERA of 3.74, a 1.45 WHIP and 365 strikeouts to 203 walks in 327.2 innings pitched.

Now granted, Chapman was only 21 by the time he left Cuba, and 18 when he began playing professionally there, but my point is that we don’t know what the team has in Chapman as a closer.

Making Chapman go through spring training, and possibly even a stint with AAA Louisville could mess with his psyche. And trying to stretch him out and further develop his lagging second and third pitches could do even more damage to an already great asset.

As a reliever, and particularly a closer, Chapman is as dominant as anybody.

Consider this quote from Sheldon’s article:

“One thing the numbers can’t quantify entirely was the electricity and intimidation Chapman brought to the ninth inning for Cincinnati. Everyone in Great American Ball Park knew the Reds finally had a dominant closer — not just the screaming fans on their feet in the stands, but the opposition in the batter’s box.”

I’ve been to a ton of Reds games over the years, but I got to experience Chapman closing for the first time in June. It’s undeniable how he lights up a crowd and that’s a major benefit in late-game situations.

Chapman’s intimidation factor may be a hair over-exaggerated but he is surely a dominant force on the mound no matter who he matches up against.

As the old adage says, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

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Early Tuesday, Johnny Cueto was diagnosed with a mild oblique strain. This isn’t good news for Reds fans who hoped to see him back as soon as Game 4 of the NLDS (if needed).

If the injury is as severe as reported, then Cueto will not be back for Game 4, and should the Reds advance, he may not be back for a while.

Reds beat writer John Fay tweeted earlier that the injury was in fact an oblique strain and that a trip to the disabled list could be in Cueto’s near future.

Should Cueto be sent to the DL, he would not be eligible for the NLCS and the Reds would need to replace him in the rotation. The most likely candidate to replace Cueto is Mike Leake, who has struggled mightily in his third big-league season.

In 30 starts, Leake has pitched 179 innings with an 8-9 record, 4.58 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 116 strikeouts compared to 41 walks.

Peripheral stats for Leake include a 2.8 K/BB ratio, 5.8 K/9 and 10.1 H/9. Leake allowed batters to hit .287/.326/.479 with 26 home runs, 46 doubles and five triples.

If that isn’t enough bad news for the Reds, it was reported Tuesday that Mat Latos is battling the flu.

Originally, Fay tweeted that Latos had said he’d be ready for Game 4 of the NLDS, if the team needed him. But if Latos is truly battling the flu, it’s highly unlikely that he would pitch in Game 4.

That means that since the Reds lost Tuesday night, they may have to turn to Leake as soon as Wednesday evening. If the Reds had been able to win Game 3, they would’ve have the added advantage of extra time to see whether or not Cueto will be available for the next round of the playoffs.

Tuesday night’s game carries major implications for the remainder of the Reds’ postseason, and without a healthy Cueto, Cincinnati’s postseason run could be in serious jeopardy.

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The Reds came into the playoffs as a division winner, drawing the San Francisco Giants in the first round of the MLB playoffs. Many predicted a tight series, but thus far the Reds have dominated the Giants.

The Reds are now shaping up for Game 3 tonight and have an opportunity to sweep the series on their home field. I’m sure it’s still difficult (no matter how good the Reds are) for people to comprehend them sweeping the Giants.

It’s going to happen.

The Reds have won six of their last nine games dating back to September 27th, Joey Votto is starting to find his swing again and Brandon Phillips is pacing the team out of the leadoff spot.

Additionally, the pitching staff has almost never looked better.

Following the loss of Johnny Cueto in Game 1 after just 10 pitches, the Reds pieced together Sam LeCure, Mat Latos, Sean Marshall, Jonathan Broxton and Aroldis Chapman to beat the Giants 5-2. Workhorse Bronson Arroyo went seven innings in Game 2, allowing one hit and a walk en route to a 9-0 bashing of the Giants.

The Reds will carry this momentum into Game 3 and will sweep the Giants for several reasons.

First, the pitching.

I’ll mention right now that Homer Bailey isn’t that great in his career against the Giants, but Ryan Vogelsong isn’t very good against the Reds either.

Since 2007, Bailey has started five games against the Giants, going 29 innings with a 5.59 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP and nearly as many earned runs (18) as strikeouts (19).

Vogelsong has pitched against the Reds 15 times, including eight starts.

In those eight starts he’s pitched 51.1 innings with a 5.08 ERA and 1.62 WHIP with 43 strikeouts and 30 walks. Additionally, his peripheral stats against the Reds are some of the worst splits of his career, including a H/9 rate of 9.3, a K/9 rate of 7.5 and K/BB of 1.43.

The two obviously don’t pitch well against each other’s ball clubs, but Bailey is riding an all-time high right now and clearly had the best season of his Major League career.

In 2012, Bailey posted a 13-10 record with a 3.68 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, 168 strikeouts and 52 walks in 208 innings pitched. Bailey also had ratios of 3.2 K/BB and 7.3 K/9. Bailey hasn’t allowed a run in either of his last two starts, one of those being his no-hitter against the Pirates just 11 days ago.

The Reds offense is also rolling of late.

The Reds have scored 14 runs in the first two games of the series.

That total is tied for the most through the playoffs with the St. Louis Cardinals. Although it’s only been two games, a huge positive can be taken from the play of Brandon Phillips out of the leadoff position.

The one hole in the Reds lineup has been where batters have gone to die in 2012. In 703 at-bats, Reds leadoff batters produced a .208/.254/.327 slash line with 16 HR, 38 RBI and 83 runs scored.

They have only produced 51 extra-base hits compared to the three hole which has produced 63 doubles alone.

This spot in the lineup has been an issue all season long, but Brandon Phillips seems to have found his stroke there the last two games. Phillips is batting 5-for-10 in his last two games with a home run, a run and three RBI.

His three-run home run in Game 1 proved to be all the offense the Reds would need.

In Game 2, Phillips hit two doubles and, in turn, provided the Reds with two opportunities to knock him in. Although the Reds did not cash in, they really hadn’t had many of these opportunities this season and it’s a nice luxury to have.

Brandon Phillips’ ability to get on base and provide some pop out of the leadoff spot has sparked the Reds offense. With Homer Bailey taking the mound tonight against a deflated Giants team, look for the Reds to complete the series sweep of the San Francisco Giants.

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There’s a certain stigma attached to Ryan Braun‘s name following last year’s PED controversy, however, that shouldn’t stop the writers from giving him a much deserved, second straight NL MVP Award.

Now before you jump to conclusions, I’m a Reds fan and have no bias favoring Braun. The fact of the matter is that Braun’s numbers are far and above every other player in the National League.

In 139 games, Braun is batting .312/.387/.602/.989 with 40 HR, 103 RBI, 95 runs, 30 doubles and 24 steals.

According to ESPN’s projections, Braun is expected to finish the year at .312/.387/.602 with 44 HR, 114 RBI, 105 runs 33 doubles and 26 steals. If by some miracle Braun steals six bases between now and the end of the season, he’ll be just the 11th player in in MLB history to reach the 40-30 mark.

Braun’s numbers truly speak for themselves. His 40 home runs give him a commanding lead in the National League, while his 95 runs, 103 RBI and .312 batting average are good for second, second and fifth respectively.

Braun’s 103 RBI are second only to Chase Headley’s mark of 104. Additionally, when MVP voting begins, Braun’s .312 batting average will likely be viewed as fourth best, considering the fact that suspended outfielder Melky Cabrera leads the National League.

Braun could easily lead two of the three Triple Crown categories by the time the season ends, which that won’t go unnoticed.

In addition to the basic slash line, RBI and home run totals, Braun’s .602 slugging percentage and .989 OPS are both NL bests.

Though it’s lower than the value he posted last year, Braun’s 6.5 WAR is just .02 behind the NL leader Andrew McCutchen. He and McCutchen are also tied for the NL lead in runs created at 126, giving them a sizable 19 run lead over Buster Posey’s 107.

Braun isn’t just an offensive juggernaut though, his 2.8 defensive WAR is good for second behind Cubs second baseman Darwin Barney. Although it doesn’t make a huge difference to writers, whose decisions are based largely around offensive performance, it is worth noting.

Perhaps what’s most impressive about Braun’s 2012 campaign is that he’s produced these numbers without the protection of Prince Fielder. Many people, including myself, wondered and/or doubted whether Braun could produce equally impressive numbers without Fielder.

Those doubts quickly were stifled in 2012.

There’s no doubt that Braun’s name and performance carries a stigma, but it’s hard to believe that if he was using this season, he wouldn’t get caught.

What’s really helping Braun’s case is his team’s performance down the late-season stretch. The Brewers have won 20 of their last 26 games and find themselves just 2.5 games out of the second NL Wild Card spot.

The Brewers being in the playoff hunt, puts the spotlight on Braun and his impressive season. However, he really deserves the award no matter how the Brewers finish in 2012.

Need your own proof? Take a look at Baseball-Reference’s listing of the National League batting leaders.

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A lot has been made of Bryce Harper‘s rookie campaign, and rightfully so. Harper’s impressed players, managers and fans with his hustle and on-field attitude and he’s played impressively considering he’s just 19 years old.

Harper may seem to be a slam dunk for the 2012 National League Rookie of the Year Award; however, the Cincinnati Reds have their own young player who’s beginning to make waves in the majors.

Todd Frazier is outperforming the vast majority of NL rookies in 2012.

In 70 games played, Frazier is slashing .285/.347/.542 with 10 HR, 33 RBI, 27 runs and 15 doubles.

Harper, in 75 games, is slashing .272/.343/.449 with nine HR, 29 RBI, 50 runs 15 doubles and 13 steals.

Among NL rookies, Frazier is  first in SLG (.542), OPS (.890) and triples (five), second in RBI (33) and HR (10), third in AVG (.285) and OBP (.347), fifth in doubles (15) and sixth in walks (20) and runs (27).

The key to Todd Frazier being NL Rookie of the Year is how he performs while Joey Votto is on the DL.

In the eight games since Votto left the lineup on July 16, Frazier is slashing .323/.344/.580 with two doubles, three RBI and three runs scored.

Frazier has forced his way into the Cincinnati Reds everyday lineup and continues to take advantage of it.

In the month of July, Frazier is slashing 350/.400/.583 with three HR, 11 RBI, 12 runs, three doubles and a triple.

If Todd Frazier can continue at his current rate of production, his only true competition in the NL Rookie of the Year race will be Arizona Diamondbacks starter Wade Miley.

Miley currently sits at 11-5 with a 3.02 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 113.1 innings pitched.

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According to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com, Justin Upton isn’t going anywhere during the 2012 season.

Earlier Tuesday afternoon, team president Derrick Hall told reporters that there was “close to a 100 percent chance that nothing happens” with Upton and that, “We’re in no hurry to move this guy—nor do we think we need to.”

“Everybody in this organization is open for discussion and conversation, including Justin Upton. If people call, we’re going to listen. We’ve had a lot of people call, and we’ve said, ‘No, thank you’ to all of them. That hasn’t changed,” Hall said.

Trade rumors have been swirling around the young star for quite some time but, for now, it appears Upton will stay put.

Prior to this statement, Upton had been linked to the Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Pirates, Tigers and Braves.

Thus far through the 2012 season, Upton is slashing .276/.362/.412 with eight home runs, 41 RBI, 60 runs, and 11 steals in 89 games.

The power numbers are a disappointment as well as the slugging percentage in result of his decreasing power output, but Upton is producing similarly on all other fronts.

If Upton can get the ball up in the air a little more consistently and produce more line drives, then fans may see a return to 2011 form.

In 2011, Upton produced fly balls 44.8 percent of the time and ground balls 36.9 percent of the time. In 2012, those numbers have completely switched and he produces 33.2 percent fly balls and 45.7 percent ground balls.

Recently, the Diamondbacks have won four games straight moving, to 48-48 on the year and just 4.5 games out of the NL Wild Card.

Put your money on the Diamondbacks transitioning into buying mode come the trade deadline.

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I heard of Paul Janish‘s possible injury yesterday. Today it’s been confirmed by beat writer John Fay that Janish broke his wrist when he was hit by a pitch in Saturday’s game against the Norfolk Tides.

Janish will be placed on the DL and is likely to miss 6-8 weeks (standard recovery time from a broken wrist).

Janish is one of the more likable players in the Reds organization. He may not always produce to fans’ standards, but he works hard and is a wizard with the glove.

This year, Janish was punishing AAA pitching. In 23 games, Janish was batting .315/.390/.521 with two HR, seven doubles, a triple, four RBI and 11 runs scored.

The Reds will need to replace Janish’s production in Louisville, and the best option seems to be promoting lower level players.

Didi Gregorius is in AA right now and he’d be next in line for a promotion at shortstop. Gregorius is one of the higher-ranked organizational prospects and he’s certainly playing like one this season.

Gregorius is batting .333/.384/.345 with a double, seven RBI and 15 runs scored in 22 games played.

Promoting Gregorius would create a vacancy at shortstop in AA-Pensacola.

Fan favorite and super-prospect Billy Hamilton is the likely candidate for promotion.

Hamilton is killing it in 2012. In 23 games at A+ Bakersfield, Hamilton is batting .393/.481/.591 with a HR, six doubles, four triples, 10 RBI, 24 runs, and 29 steals.

Hamilton’s offensive game is definitely deserving of promotion. His big knock is his defense but as I’ve mentioned in previous articles, defense for shortstops tends to come later in their minor league careers.

Hamilton is the organization’s most exciting prospect and arguably the fastest player in professional baseball.

It will be interesting to see how the Reds handle Janish’s injury. The injury could have major implications on the progression of two of the Reds’ best prospects.

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