Kuzul

Last month, Scott Hutchinson wrote an article about how the Brandon Phillips for Cole Hamels trade rumors were absurd.

By now you all know about Joey Votto’s contract extension and, in light of this event, I’m going to have to disagree with Mr. Hutchinson’s assessment of the Phillips for Hamels swap.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Brandon Phillips and he’s arguably my favorite player on the team. However, all of a sudden a trade for Cole Hamels is starting to make a great deal of sense to me.

As you read this article, try to think strictly about the trade, and not about how much you like or dislike Brandon Phillips and/or Cole Hamels.

In my opinion, the Reds will not extend Phillips past the 2012 season. I think he wants a few too many years and maybe a little too much money for the Reds to re-sign him.

I also believe that Cole Hamels will not get the deal he’s looking for with the Phillies. They just recently signed Jonathan Papelbon and have very solid starting pitching depth, with or without Hamels.

The Reds could certainly use a pitcher like Cole Hamels at the front end of their rotation and even more so because he’s left-handed.

Remember when we were all calling for Aroldis Chapman to make the rotation out of spring training just a few days ago? Well, Hamels, at this point in time, is miles ahead of Chapman as a starter and he would solve the problem of there being no lefties in the Reds’ starting rotation.

The Phillies are having a whole lot of problems with their their middle-infield. Chase Utley’s knees are pretty banged up, and according to ESPN and the Associated Press, Utley will begin this season in Arizona rehabilitating his knees.

My buddy Cliff Eastham has also noted this and pointed out the lack of middle-infield depth the Phillies possess in his article about the Janish to Philly rumor.

So you have two players who are unlikely to remain with their current ball clubs past this season, both of whom fill a massive need of the other team.

If you’re the Phillies or the Reds, what’s not to like about this deal? The Reds could complete one of the best pitching rotations in baseball and the Phillies could get a little bit younger and healthier up the middle.

Both players would essentially be rentals for their new clubs, as I highly doubt the Reds would re-sign Hamels, and the Phillies wouldn’t be likely to re-sign Phillips.

The Reds have players in the minors who could step in and do an adequate job. One of my favorite prospects in the organization, Brodie Greene, could step in and contribute with an average around .270-.280, double-digit home runs, 25-30 stolen bases and decent defense at second base.

Furthermore, the Phillies have good pitching depth. They already have Halladay, Cliff Lee, Joe Blanton and Vane Worley. Philly could plug anybody into that fifth spot and still have one of the best rotations in all of baseball.

Maybe I’m delirious from the joy of seeing the best player we’ve had in Cincinnati in a long time get locked up for what I’m assuming will be the duration of his career, but this deal seems to make a whole lot of sense right now.

 If I were Walt Jocketty, I might just pull the trigger on this deal if it were offered to me.

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This offseason, the Reds let Ramon Hernandez test free agency. They also shipped highly-touted catching prospect Yasmani Grandal off to San Diego in the deal that brought Mat Latos to Cincinnati.

These factors led myself, and many other Reds fans, to believe that Devin Mesoraco would assume full-time catching duties in 2012.

Mesoraco has been on Baseball America’s Top 100 list for the past two seasons (16 in 2012 and 64 in 2011). Mesoraco struggled a bit in his first big-league call-up, but take into account that it was only 53 plate appearances across 18 games.

In order to decipher just how good Mesoraco will be, you’ll need to look at his minor league numbers and how he’s progressed from season to season.

In 2009, doubts began to sprout up about whether or not Mesoraco could turn into anything more than a back-up at the major league level.

Mesoraco worked quickly to stifle those doubts in 2010 when he went off. Mesoraco’s season catapulted him into the middle of the pack (No. 64) on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects of 2011 list.

In 2011, Mesoraco’s consistency began to develop, and he posted a very solid season which earned him; a AAA All-Star game selection, the No. 12 spot on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects of 2012 list, and a late-season call-up with the Reds. Mesoraco didn’t do much with that call-up, but he did display some decent pop (2 HR in 50 AB).

Mesoraco developed as catcher in those seasons as well. As a matter of fact, his defense and game-calling abilities have progressed every season since he was drafted in ’07.

In 2010, Mesoraco posted a .984 fielding percentage and a 7.42 range factor. He followed that season up in 2011 with a .986 fielding percentage and a 7.46 range factor. When compared to his first season in the rookie league (.975 fielding percentage and 7.11 range factor), you can see how far Mesoraco has come defensively.

Mesoraco is a stud at the plate. He shows the ability of a .280-plus hitter with 20-25 HR pop, and above average ability behind the plate. The 23 year old should work nicely in the Reds lineup for years to come.

My 2012 Projections: .279/.364/.480 with 17 HR, 58 runs scored and 60 RBI

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Last month I wrote a piece about Reds second base prospect Brodie Greene. This month, I’m bringing you another second baseman, Henry Rodriguez.

I’ll be the first to admit that I completely overlooked Rodriguez when I wrote that Brodie Greene could end up being Brandon Phillips’ replacement should he not return for the 2013 season. Had Rodriguez read that line, he might slap me silly.

Rodriguez came to the Reds in 2007, left for the Diamondbacks in 2008 and returned to the Reds in the same year (correct me if i have that wrong, his career path is pretty confusing). But in any event, Rodriguez came to the Reds at 17 years old and is now 22.

With five minor league seasons (two full seasons) under his belt, Henry Rodriguez should be looking to make the jump to the majors in the next few seasons and this is why.

Rodriguez hasn’t hit under .300 in the minors since his first season when he was just 17 years old. The last two years Rodriguez has worked between A, A+ and AA ball and has hit .305 in 2010 and .320 in 2011.

Not only can Rodriguez hit for a high average, he’s shown good power the last two seasons for a man who stands in at 5’10″150-pounds. In 2010 Rodriguez hit 14 HR and in 2011 he belted 13.

What makes Rodriguez an even more intriguing prospect is his blend of speed and power. Much like Brodie Greene, and even Brandon Phillips, Rodriguez has shown that he can knock the ball out of the park and wreak havoc on the base paths. In 2010 Rodriguez swiped 33 bases and in 2011 he swiped another 30.

The past two seasons complete stat lines look like this:

2010: .305/.333/.463 14 HR, 82 RBI, 78 runs scored with 33 stolen bases

2011: .320/.372/.469 13 HR, 81 RBI, 76 runs scored with 30 stolen bases

In those two seasons Rodriguez was 20 and 21 years old. Rodriguez has an oddly complete offensive game for a man who just recently turned 22.

Another reason Rodriguez should make the jump to the bigs before too long is that he’s a switch hitter. Switch hitting middle infielders are pretty rare and one with Rodriguez’ blend of speed and power are even more rare.

I only have three points of criticism when I look at Rodriguez and the first is his fielding.

In the last two seasons Rodriguez has posted fielding percentages of .972 and .964 at second base. Those aren’t really acceptable numbers but those are 20 and 21 year old seasons so I’m hopeful (as we all should be) that he will improve with age.

My second point of criticism is his bat speed from the left side of the field. Rodriguez has a very easy swing which may work for him but when you face guys throwing in the mid to upper 90s you need a quick bat.

My final point of criticism is in his free swinging nature. You’re going to go look at his stats and think I’m crazy because his strikeout totals are low. This is true, his strikeout totals are low over the last two years he’s played 257 games, made 1137 plate appearances and has struck out just 152 times. He’s striking out in just over 13 percent of his plate appearances which is quite low. 

If you watch video of Rodriguez though he tends to put himself in early holes by swinging at pitches well out of the zone. I don’t know whether he lacks discipline or the ability to differentiate between fastballs and off-speed pitches but he will need to improve on his pitch selection as he really doesn’t walk much (61 walks in those 1137 plate appearances).

In any event, these are things that improve greatly as a player matures. At 22 years old, Rodriguez might have one of the brightest futures of any prospect in the Reds minor league system. After recently being sent to AA Pensacola from Reds’ spring training, he will likely complement Didi Gregorius in the middle of the Blue Wahoo’s infield.

A year or two from now we could very well be contemplating the possibilities of Rodriguez starting for the Reds should Brandon Phillips leave Cincinnati.

All the stats I use in these articles are pulled from Baseball-Reference. They run a great website over there so be sure to go check them out!

Be sure to check out my other articles on young Reds prospects:

Neftali Soto

Daniel Corcino

Billy Hamilton

Robert Stephenson

Juan Francisco

Brodie Greene

Donald Lutz

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By a show of hands, how many of you have really heard of Donald Lutz prior to seeing this article?

If everyone is totally honest, I bet there are very few people with their hands raised right now.

Lutz is a 23-year-old prospect in the Reds’ minor league organization who’s showing signs of a bright future. Lutz was born in Watertown, NY, but signed as an international free agent from Germany in 2007. Since then, Lutz has played in the minors.

In 2007, as a 17-year-old, Lutz played in the German Baseball Bundesliga, the elite level of competition in Germany where the national team roster is set. After a poor showing in the first division, Lutz went off in the second with a .506 average, 39 RBI and six home runs in just 24 games.

Lutz was also a member of the 2008 European Under-21 championship. In that same year, he had a respectable showing for the Reds’ rookie team in the Gulf League.

His first three seasons were spent in rookie ball and playing abroad for the German National Team.

2011 was Lutz’s first full season in the minors, and it was impressive to say the least. In 123 games at A Dayton, Lutz recorded 506 plate appearances and 465 at-bats and went .301/.358/.492 with 140 hits (46 of which were for extra bases), 20 HR, 75 RBI and 85 runs scored.

That’s a great season for a 22-year-old and should land him in AA either at the start of this season or by at least the midway point.

The only problem with Lutz—if you can even call it a problem—is that he’s a first baseman. This has already proven to be a difficult position in the Reds system after shipping Yonder Alonso off this winter.

At 6’4″ and 230 pounds, my guess is that Lutz won’t be playing many more games in the outfield (he’s played about 17 total with the Reds).

With Neftali Soto and Joey Votto ahead of him, it’s tough to say what will happen with Lutz in the future. For now though, we can be content with watching him develop into a very solid player.

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It’s no news to any Reds fan that Joey Votto may not be with the team past the 2013 season. An unfortunate truth of being a team with salary constrictions is that you can’t always afford to keep your star players. Ask the Brewers and Mets how they feel going into this season after watching Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes depart for greener pastures.

It’s a deflating feeling to watch a player leave your favorite team but let’s take a look at one of the more intriguing and overlooked players in the Reds farm system, 2007 third-round draft pick, Neftali Soto.

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