Author Archive

Final Predictions for Cincinnati Reds’ Key Spring Position Battles

The few position battles that were happening within the Reds spring training camp are just about over. When last we visited this topic, the only true battles happening were for the back of the rotation and the bullpen, with a potential for a shortstop scrap. Some players have been removed from the mix, while others have come out of nowhere to win the nod. 

 

SP No. 4 and No. 5 (and No. 3)

This won’t be much of a prediction, mainly because it’s already been determined. But getting there was not without its curiosities. 

There were several names in this mix for these pivotal spots on the roster. One was David Holmberg, who was removed from consideration earlier this week when the Reds made nine more cuts. Holmberg was 0-1 with a 2.57 ERA over three games and seven innings this spring, but it wasn’t enough to get him to April in a Reds uniform.

Bryan Price explained the decision to John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer:

Having this type of roster and this situation, we had to make some calls fairly early in spring training as far as roles and probabilities with our group. We don’t have the ability to give everybody the amount of innings needed to completely evaluate them in spring training. We had to make some decisions.

Since being acquired in the deal for Mat Latos, Anthony DeSclafani has seemingly been a favorite to occupy one of the spots. DeSclafani has pitched a total of nine innings in three starts. He’s sporting a 0-0 record with a 3.00 ERA. He’s got five strikeouts and three walks in that time.

And, according to Faythe rotation “is set.” DeSclafani is included, along with Raisel Iglesias and the dark horse, Jason Marquis.

If you haven’t heard what Marquis has done this spring, it’s been a shocker. But while impressive, the confidence surrounding this situation can’t be that high. It’s been a long time since Marquis has experienced success in the MLB

In 20 starts last year with the San Diego Padres, Marquis went 9-5 with a 4.05 ERA. He surrendered 111 hits in 117 innings pitched and finished with a WHIP of 1.52. Currently, his line in spring is 2-1 with a 3.21 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. That’s after four starts and 14 innings total. 

It’s hard to get excited about Marquis, at least until this performance transitions to when the games count. And frankly, there weren’t many better options. If not him, it would probably have been Paul Maholm, who has managed a 1-0, 2.45 line this spring. 

Meanwhile, Iglesias hasn’t given up an earned run in 7.2 innings pitched and has six strikeouts in that span. Price explained to C. Trent Rosecrans of The Cincinnati Enquirer:

He’s a four-pitch pitcher who really got us excited in Instructional League and fall league with his command of four pitches,” Price said. “He’s got velocity, movement. He’s quick to the plate. He’s athletic. He’s that type of pitcher that we feel should be given the opportunity to start based on those intangibles.

I like Iglesias to take Marquis’ spot when Bailey returns.

 

Shortstop 

In the first look at this battle, I projected that Zack Cozart would probably win what was hardly a battle for his position because the Reds won’t be looking for offense out of the No. 8 spot. They were likely to stick with his second-best WAR of any shortstop in baseball, and they did. Price clarified in the aforementioned article:

I like Zack Cozart as our shortstop. I do. What we did with Eugenio is we went out and got the two best players we would be able to get in the (Alfredo) Simon trade,” Price said of the trade that brought Suarez and former first-rounder Jonathon Crawford to Cincinnati. “We look at him as an outstanding defensive player, which is the primary concern with a shortstop, the defensive aspect of the position. And we felt that he had a lot of room to grow as an offensive player.

That battle was over before it started, but the Reds will still have nice options off the bench should anything happen to their Gold Glove shortstop. 

 

Bullpen

The rotation battle victors easily gave this one away. Tony Cingrani is going to the bullpen, where the Reds hope to maximize his heavy fastball arsenal. The news obviously came as a surprise to Cingrani, who, according to John Fay, wasn’t pleased to say the least.

But because of his arsenal of fastballs, it’s a sound strategy, as Fangraphs‘ Mike Petriello quickly pointed out in a recent article in which he illustrates how no one in the game from 2013-2014 utilized the fastball more:

      Fastball usage, 2013-14, min. 150 IP (179 total pitchers)

  1. Cingrani, 78.6%
  2. Danny Salazar, 68.6%
  3. Juan Nicasio, 68.2%
  4. Shelby Miller, 67.7%
  5. Kevin Gausman, 66.6%

The article points out that in that span of time, Cingrani was No. 12 in strikeout percentage, so he clearly has the ability to miss bats. And when you consider the loss of Sean Marshall, another left arm in the bullpen becomes vital.

The rest of the bullpen should look somewhat similar to last year, with the addition of Burke Badenhop and possibly prospect standout Michael Lorenzen.

 

Bench

There was some competition for the bench by default. And if Brennan Boesch wasn’t in the plans before spring training, he most assuredly is now. Boesch is killing it. In 29 at-bats, Boesch is slashing .448/.448/.793. He has a team-high three home runs and seven RBI. He’s recorded 13 hits in 11 games.

It’s hard to envision a scenario in which he doesn’t make the club. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for teammate Jason Bourgeois, who suffered a fractured shoulder. Prior to that, he was slashing .350/.350/.500.

It was this guy’s time. Bourgeois slashed .278/.328/.363 last year in Triple-A. Unfortunately, he’s out for at least six weeks and will probably go to Louisville when he’s healthy. 

Chris Dominguez is looking like a favorite to make it out of spring. He’s second behind only Boesch in at-bats and is slashing .259/.276/.481 with one home run and five RBI. He does lead the team in strikeouts with eight, though. 

And with that, the Reds appear nearly ready to assemble their Opening Day roster.

 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-reference.com unless noted otherwise and are current as of March 19. 

@GroteT for more.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Most Disappointing Cincinnati Reds Players in Spring Training so Far

This is just a checkup. It’s only a glimpse into faux baseball, one where starters routinely exit after two at-bats and the final score is irrelevant. This is just to provide a sense of who isn’t quite performing well when nothing matters, so read into it what you will. 

Last year, Chris Heisey finished the spring batting .310, while Skip Schumaker hit .441. Spring training performances aren’t indicative of much, but it’s interesting to check it out.

What else are we supposed to discuss until April 6?

 

Todd Frazier

Todd Frazier has a lot to prove a year after slashing .273/.336/.459 and making his first All-Star Game/Home Run Derby appearance. Not only will he be tasked with meeting, at the very least, that kind of production, with 29 home runs and 80 RBI, but many fans see him as a potential vocal clubhouse leader of the team. So expectations on Frazier are reasonably high.

In just 13 at-bats in five games, Frazier is slashing .231/.214/.385. He has three hits, one double and four RBI, with no home runs. It’s worth noting he’s struck out three times in that span while recording no walks.

It’s also worth noting that Frazier has been suffering back spasms, which scratched him from the lineup already and is probably the reason for such a slow start. The Reds slugger has been batting third during spring, so they’ll definitely want to see him get more plate appearances.

 

Marlon Byrd

Byrd’s only played in five games and has nine at-bats, so it would take literally one afternoon to change his current slashing line of .222/.364/.222. 

The veteran left fielder does have two doubles in that short body of work, including a walk and a strikeout. Unfortunately, he just doesn’t have a big enough body of work to adequately assess. The two doubles in nine at-bats is promising. 

Anthony DeSclafani

Desclafani is going to get an abnormal amount of attention. As the possible favorite to take the No. 5 spot in the rotation, a solid spring training for him is pivotal to build confidence. So far, he’s off to a slow start.

And let’s be very clear: He’s pitched five innings in two games. But they’ve been far from pretty. He’s 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA, and hitters are batting .333 against him right now. He’s only struck out two batters.

To be fair, Johnny Cueto, Tony Cingrani, David Holmberg and Paul Maholm have five innings pitched as well—no one has an ERA over 1.80. The sample size simply cannot be taken seriously, but again, considering DeSclafani‘s lack of MLB experience, he’s going to be met with heavier skepticism if his spring training doesn’t improve.

 

Bullpen, Middle Relief 

When you finish the season as one of the sport’s worst bullpens, the goal becomes to rapidly demonstrate that it was a statistical outlier and by no means indicative of what the bullpen can really do.

So far, in early spring, middle relief is playing to a similar beat. Sam LeCure, J.J. Hoover, Manny Parra, Burke Badenhop, Pedro Villarreal and Daniel Corcino—each is currently carrying an ERA we’ve come to expect from this part of the bullpen. 

To reiterate: The sample size is hardly serious, but if you’re checking in on who is off to a slow start after the second week of March, you may not be surprised to discover the usual suspects.

LeCure and Hoover both have four strikeouts in six innings pitched, obviously something you want to see out of relief. But batters are currently hitting .333 against LeCure and .357 against Hoover. Hoover’s ERA is 9.00. He’s surrendered five hits in three innings pitched and has given up two home runs already.

Badenhop got shelled in his Reds debut. Against the Cleveland Indians, he surrendered five runs (four earned) on five hits in two-thirds of an inning. He’s given up eight hits in just 1.2 innings of work. Furthermore, both of his appearances were save opportunities.

There’s a reason why prospect standout Michael Lorenzen has a chance to make the Reds roster in a bullpen capacity. John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer asserts, “The decision is a bit of a complicated one because the Reds project Lorenzen as a starter. If he makes the team, it would be almost certainly as a reliever.”

Lorenzen hasn’t allowed a run in four innings of work and has four strikeouts compared to just one walk in that time. But his inclusion after spring training may depend more on the aforementioned than his own performance.

 

Hey. Like talking Reds? Same here. I’m @GroteT, or catch me creeping around the comment sections on Cincinnati.com. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


On Former Red Mat Latos’ Comments: Truth Is Probably Somewhere in Between

Ever spoken with a recently terminated employee? Ever heard what they have to say about their former employer? Even if you haven’t, if you read the comments from Mat Latos in an interview with Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, you’ll see how it goes.

Sour. Slanted and bitter. Often alarmingly transparent. Latos actually nailed it to a single “T.”

But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t pay attention to what he said—or at least some of it.

The comments regarding the medical staff were fraudulent and insulting. I don’t have any special insight on the matter, but anyone can Google back to last June and read how not only eager Latos was to return to the mound, but how miffed he was at the idea of another minor league stint. 

“It’s pretty bogus I have to go on another rehab assignment,” Latos said to John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer. “But it it is what it is. I don’t make the decisions around here. I’m a puppet on a string. I get told to do what I need to do and I do it.”

Bogus indeed. And while nothing would impress @SportsDad more, the fact of the matter is that we know by his very own admission he wasn’t being rushed back. So personally speaking, I gave little thought or merit to any comments regarding the medical staff. 

And it makes sense why he’d point the finger at them. Right now, Latos is damaged goods. He unwillingly wears the tag like an American Eagle shirt does its logo. Multiple stints on the DL will do that—it’s beyond his control. So a comment like that selfishly removes accountability, making it more about the doctors than his body, an important detail as he nears free agency.

It’s the comments about the clubhouse that interest me most. Comments about preparation, dedication, leadership—the kinds of things Reds fans have been talking about since Scott Rolen retired and Dusty Baker was left to juggle the egos of 25 professional athletes, or chainsaws for short. 

Many considered Baker’s inability to do this as a massive shortcoming. Baseball managers aren’t so much about X’s and O’s as they are about establishing a pace or a tone—an expectation. And with Baker’s dismissal came the expectation that new manager Bryan Price may satisfy that need.

“A culture of accountability,” it was called in an interview with Paul Daugherty of The Cincinnati Enquirer, via The Indianapolis Star.

So naturally—and especially if you were particularly not fond of Dusty Baker—Latos‘ comments about the clubhouse may be too tough to swallow or at least a little unpleasant going down. Because if there is any degree of truth to what Latos said, then the culture of accountability was about as real as Narnia.

And that means, maybe, belief in Price changing the culture is just as fictional. Maybe.

Of course, anything we take from the spat is speculative. But why would Latos go into that much detail about player behavior if it wasn’t true? Why would he boldly list years of service or player roles—clues for us to determine who he was talking about? How does that serve him?

Because he was hurt? And in typical fashion, like we discussed at the beginning of this article, because bitter former employees lash out to ease the pain?

OK. Let’s say that’s the case. Let’s proceed as if Latos‘ assumed Johnny Cueto jealousy is real and it’s the crux of the malice Latos is dishing. Remove Latos from the equation.

Would you honestly be shocked to hear Aroldis Chapman was sleeping in the clubhouse early in games? Would you really be baffled to hear that there’s been a serious leadership void post Rolen and Bronson Arroyo? 

Of course you wouldn’t, because leadership was already a topic of concern. Remember Paul Daugherty’s article in The Cincinnati Enquirer, authored some eight days before Latos dropped the bomb—an article entitled, “Bryan Price says Reds problem isn’t leadership.” 

Leadership was already a hot topic. And while the temptation to dismiss Latos like an agitated, resentful former employee is enormous, there could be an uncomfortably large degree of truth to what he said about the Reds’ clubhouse.

There is typically truth to the words from an employee who leaves his or her organization on unfavorable terms. That’s why most companies have separation agreements. Latos needed a separation agreement. 

And what about the good things he said? Why did he go at lengths to acknowledge specific players? No doubt they were friends, but his comments about them seemed pretty genuine, no? How does discussing Joey Votto’s criticism and how wrong it is play into the narrative of the dishonest, bitter former employee?

A common reaction to Latos‘ comments is that he’s only demonstrating what a terrible leader he was. But so what? What does that matter, and how is that relevant to the Reds now that he’s pitching for the Miami Marlins? Who in Cincinnati cares about Mat Latos‘ leadership now? It’s about the team he left behind. And it’s plausible that team has a serious void in leadership, the same gap fans have routinely questioned for nearly three years; the same gap that Reds ownership sold us on being filled.

I can’t emphasize enough that I’m not validating any of what Latos said. I’m suggesting there’s a reason he said it. I’m suggesting that there probably is a void in leadership, and I’m suggesting you already know this. So knowing that from the beginning, you have to at least acknowledge what Latos said as more than just “tabloid B.S.,” as Price described it to C. Trent Rosecrans of The Cincinnati Enquirer, via USA Today.

“If this was a court of law, the cross examination would go after the credibility of the witness,” said Reds starter Homer Bailey in the same article. Indeed. But this isn’t court and Latos’ testimony is very admissible.

Were the comments unfair? Absolutely. But what does fair have to do with it? Latos‘ maturity and his reluctance to demonstrate how improved it is will mean more to his agent after next season. But the Reds’ apparent inability to find a leader and set an expectation in the clubhouse may mean a little more to you. 

If it’s true, of course. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


New Year’s Resolutions for the Cincinnati Reds in 2015

The dropping of the crystal ball signaled the start of 2015, officially designating the disastrous season of 2014 as last year’s news.

When we discuss the Cincinnati Reds from this juncture, we discuss a new product. The Reds lack the potent starting rotation they once had, but they do offer some offensive prowess that many fans have longed for.

The Reds welcomed the new year by finally adding the coveted left fielder, even if it didn’t quite have the luster fans hoped for. Marlon Byrd brings 25 home runs and a .445 slugging to the lineup. Does a lineup featuring Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier, Joey Votto, Marlon Byrd, Devin Mesoraco and Jay Bruce inspire any more confidence?

The list of resolutions becomes obvious. The Reds don’t have any dramatic resolutions like needing to shed 20 pounds or quitting smoking—just eating healthier or volunteering more would suffice. That’s because the crux of what the Reds need is just health, especially considering the departure of No. 2 pitcher Mat Latos.

Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce and Joey Votto officially account for new year’s resolution No. 1. Injuries can happen to everyone, but these four Reds are arguably the most important in uniform. These guys have to stay healthy if the Reds have a chance of competing in 2015. Bailey will be asked to pitch in a spot that, by now, he should be ready for. But he can’t deliver from the disabled list.

The second new year’s resolution would be a vow to get on base. The Reds finished with the third-worst OBP in baseball. When you consider the absurd amount of one-run games the Reds were in, OBP becomes even more vital. Nori Aoki would have been an immediate fix to this enormous problem, but the Reds opted for a better bat instead.

Votto’s presence will undoubtedly help the OBP, but you’d like to see guys such as Billy Hamilton, Phillips and Bruce all get their OBP closer to MLB average. Hamilton and Bruce both finished below .300. A sub-.300 OBP at the top of the lineup is crippling, so Billy Hamilton will have to grow up quick to stay there.

It’s not that the Reds weren’t making contact. Per Fangraphs.com, the Reds were No.7 in o-swing percentage, meaning balls swung on that were outside of the strike zone. They were No.1 in z-swing percentage, which accounts for balls swung inside of the strike zone. They swung a lot.

It could be a matter of plate discipline. The Reds are a very swing-happy team. Those who professionally cover the Reds often discuss Votto in a negative light, suggesting that his focus on OBP is misguided. What if the majority of Reds hitters were as selective as Votto? While it’s unrealistic to assume everyone adopt Votto’s tactics, a more selective approach seems needed for a team full of hackers.

Another resolution would be to cross the plate. Per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds led all of baseball with 28 runners thrown out at home. Again, considering the amount of one-run games the Reds played in, improving this is paramount. The removal of Steve Smith and the insertion of Jim Riggleman might be all it takes.

Finally, the bullpen has to be better. The Reds finished the year with the fifth-worst bullpen ERA and the second-most bullpen losses. It’s possible that between the acquisition of Raisel Iglesias and the health of Sean Marshall, this might have already been improved from last year. 

Jumbo Diaz was a genuine surprise, and Pedro Villarreal may have earned a shot at joining the bullpen in a long-term capacity with a few decent outings before the season ended. 

The Reds at least offer a more potent offensive lineup, but this was the No. 3 starting rotation ERA in baseball, which was the reason the Reds competed to the extent that they did last year. The rotation, as of right now, is still a concern, so hopefully something is done to address that prior to Opening Day.

The lineup is better. Byrd’s age is irrelevant as long as his production is there. And it is. Byrd is still hitting for power (25 home runs in 2014, 757 OPS). He also brings with him an O-WAR of 2. His overall WAR finished at 2.7.

The Reds lacked pop last season, finishing a mediocre No. 18 in team home runs. They also recorded the second-fewest hits in all of baseball. So between adding Votto and Byrd and the health of Bruce, it’s almost absurd to assume the 2015 product will play similar to the previous one. That’s a lot of offense the Reds went without.

We can’t fool ourselves, though. After Cueto, Bailey and Mike Leake, it’s pretty slim on major league-ready talent. This could be a problem if not addressed before Opening Day. Hopefully, the shiny new lineup can mitigate the loss of Latos and Simon.

 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


A Fan’s Christmas Wish List of the Cincinnati Reds in 2015

Dear Santa,

Reds fan here. We haven’t been on the greatest of terms since Clinchmas, now over four years ago. Where have you been since? And what’s with all the coal in our red stockings?

What do you think about when you’re checking your list and you get to the Cincinnati Reds? Clinchmas was amazing, but that team got swept by the Phillies. Then after a deflating 2011 season, you put Mat Latos under the tree, and we witnessed arguably the best Reds team in over a decade.

But it was weird, Santa. Joey Votto suffered then an injury that’s affecting him now, and Johnny Cueto couldn’t come home for the holidays when we needed him most.

Weren’t we good? How could our behavior have been any better?

I got over it when you gave us Shin-Soo Choo the next year. Because it was all about the lead-off man. It was awesome; Choo finished with a .423 OBP that season. The Reds had a .323 OBP for the year, No. 6 in the game. But Cueto got hurt again. We got him back just barely in time to throw him right into a one-game playoff, where he not only got shelled but created a moment that will follow Cueto back to PNC Park in every start he will make there.

You lost me there, Santa. But I sucked it up. Maybe Pittsburgh had just stacked more karma than the Reds. I know not to be envious. But after 2014, I’m struggling to find any Christmas spirit.

You know what happened. No one likes talking about it, but you know it had a lot to do with injuries and the bullpen failure. Most reasonable Reds fans will admit as much, even if the local media won’t.

But baseball doesn’t wait. And since we could no longer afford 2011’s Christmas gift, we had to trade him away, along with another starter. And now what do we do? How does a team built on its rotation, the third-best rotation in baseball, have any success without its No. 2?

C’mon, Santa. It’s all tidings and good cheer until it’s time to sit down at the arbitration table, isn’t it?

Will you please bring us something for the back of the rotation? I know the Reds have tons of minor league talent nearing ready, but there’s no reason to rush them. Aaron Harang is out there. He threw over 200 innings and cashed in a 3.75 ERA. And he only made $1 million last year. Not asking for much.

Then there’s our bullpen, which you know was naughty. To be second in bullpen losses and have the third-worst bullpen ERA is to replace your eye drops with lemon juice. I know we were bad, so can you help us be better and maybe bring us another bullpen arm? If Raisel Iglesias is all, I won’t be mad, but a middle-relief guy would be decent, and if nothing else, maybe let Sean Marshall stay healthy?

Speaking of health, can you bring two bubbles? One for Votto and one for Homer Bailey? You understand.

This last request will come as no surprise, Santa. And you already know what I’m going to ask. It’s been years since we had a good left fielder to watch on an everyday basis. Instead of bringing us some cheap knock-off, better-as-a-pinch-hitter brand, can you just get us Nori Aoki?

I don’t care about all the talk surrounding his declining power numbers, or how he hit just one home run last year. Who cares? His OBP was .349 and .353 for his career.

This is serious, Santa. Honestly, it would be cool if you got me everything else, but this is like the Nintendo 64 when it was new. You could get me all the cool stuff in the world, but without the 64 centerpiece, Christmas is ruined.

CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman says Aoki is going to get anywhere from $7 to $8 million. Is that in the budget this year?

That’s all I got, big man. I want a back-of-the-rotation veteran starter, I want a middle-relief bullpen arm and I want a left fielder. And if it’s not too much, I’d like to be able to enjoy the 2015 Reds product, not its understudies.

And don’t give me any excuses this year. You can travel around the world in a single night, you can force yourself down chimneys, even in houses that don’t have one, and you fly reindeer. That’s great and all, but wake me up when Aoki is under my tree.

 

Stats courtesy of ESPN.com/MLB

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Reassessing the Cincinnati Reds’ Offseason Plan and Breaking Down What’s Next

Cincinnati Reds general manager Walt Jocketty finally made a significant play on the last day of the winter meetings, flipping Alfredo Simon for two of Detroit‘s top-10 prospects before swapping Mat Latos for two promising young talents from Miami.

When you also consider the departures of other names such as Jonathan Broxton, Ryan Ludwick, Jack Hannahan, Logan Ondrusek and Chris Heisey, in total, the Reds have shed about $30 million in payroll.

And yet, according to C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the payroll will still increase in 2015.

That’s not the greatest of news, given that the Reds have yet to acquire arguably the most sought-after position in all of Reds Country. At the time of publishing, there is still no starting left fielder.

Nori Aoki is still out there. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports says the Reds are still in on him:

C. Trent Rosecrans broke down the current financial make-up of the remaining roster, as it stands today:

The team still has five arbitration-eligible players on the roster for next season: Mike Leake ($9.5 million projected), Aroldis Chapman ($8.3 million projected), Zack Cozart ($2.3 million projected), Todd Frazier ($4.6 million projected) and Devin Mesoraco ($2.8 million projected).

That’s a total of $27.5 million added to the 11 players already under contract, who are due a total of more than $75.5 million, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

That doesn’t include the $6.5 million in buyouts to Jack Hannahan ($2 million) and Ryan Ludwick ($4.5 million). Those 16 players, along with the payments to the players no longer on the team, raises payroll to $109.5 million.

According to that article, that $109.5 million figure doesn’t include nine other players on the roster who will account for a minimum of $4.5 million, which leaves the payroll resembling last year’s.

That’s without a left fielder. So the smart money would be on the Reds increasing payroll, mildly, unless they’re still looking for ways to shed.

For $7 million or $8 million, Aoki has to be secured. Regardless of how underwhelming of an acquisition local media might suggest he would be, the Reds are in desperate need for high OBP guys. You can’t finish as one of the worst teams in OBP and not address that.

But even more worrisome than the vacant left field are the vacancies in the rotation. As of now, candidates for the two remaining spots would be Tony Cingrani, David Holmberg, Dylan Axelrod, Daniel Corcino and Anthony Desclafani, who was recently acquired in exchange for Mat Latos.

I don’t think you can pull multiple guys from this list—as it stands now, it’s likely that David Holmberg would fill a slot and possibly Anthony Desclafani, who did pitch briefly for the Marlins last year. Tony Cingrani seems like he’d work best in a bullpen capacity, considering a limited pitch selection.

But if the Reds are willing to go just a bit higher in payroll, there are veteran options out there. One familiar name in particular looks tempting: Aaron Harang, who made just $1 million last year. The 36-year-old went 12-12 with a 3.57 ERA for the Atlanta Braves last season. He pitched over 200 innings and makes for an easy addition to the back of the Reds rotation.

Elsewhere, right-hander Chris Young might also be a worthy addition. He resurrected a career marred by injuries when he posted a 3.65 ERA in 165 innings pitched for the Seattle Mariners.

Though he did have an alarming 5.04 FIP, it wasn’t a big deal in the pitcher-friendly confines of Safeco Field, and his price tag would make him a nice addition as a No. 5. He made just $1.25 million last season.

So from here on out, to complete the 2015 product, the Reds will need to find a left fielder and at least one veteran starter they can sign for cheap. The options are out there, it’s simply a matter of dollars and cents at this juncture.

 

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Re-Grading the Cincinnati Reds’ Offseason Post-Winter Meetings

In the early a.m. on Thursday, I gave Walt Jocketty a C- for his participation in the winter meetings. This was clearly before Mr. Jocketty‘s phone went nitro and things started to move.

But deadlines hold us accountable, and on this Friday morning, it’s time to revisit and re-grade Jocketty‘s short trip to San Diego.

The Reds committed Grand Theft Alfredo when they flipped Alfredo Simon, a 33-year-old who was discovered in exile after the Baltimore Orioles cut him in 2011.

Not only did Jocketty find a gem of a replacement starter for a plethora of injuries that would happen in 2014, but he turned this aged, free-agent scrapheap find for two of an organization’s top 10 prospects.

Baseball America ranked shortstop Eugenio Suarez and right-handed pitcher Jonathan Crawford as top-10 prospects for the Detroit Tigers at the beginning of this year. Crawford was No. 6, Suarez No. 8.

The Reds now avoid another arbitration contract and add two talented prospects to their minor league system. Crawford could turn into something special. In two minor league seasons—the short-season New York-Penn League and Low-A—the right-hander is 8-5 with a 2.73 ERA.

He struck out 85 batters in 123 innings pitched in Low-A and allowed only 39 earned runs.

Suarez may one day be the replacement for the offense-deprived Zack Cozart. In six minor league seasons, the right-handed slugging shortstop slashed .278/.362/.415. In 85 games with the Tigers last season—his rookie season—the 23-year-old slashed .242/.316/.336.

Cozart‘s OBP last year was .268.

Jocketty continued the budget cutting when he flipped No. 2 starter Mat Latos for right-handed starter Anthony DeSclafani and minor league catcher Chad Wallach from the Marlins.

DeSclafani was ranked as the Marlins’ No. 5 prospect by Baseball America. In three minor league seasons, DeSclafani went 26-16 with a 3.23 ERA.

He appeared in 13 games for the Marlins last season and went 2-2 with a 6.27 ERA. He gave up 23 runs in 33 innings pitched, struck out 26 and walked just five.

Michael Hurcomb of CBSSports.com writes that Jocketty sees DeSclafani in the 2015 rotation, saying, “We think DeSclafani will fit into our rotation this year. Our scouts were very, very high on him.”

Catcher Chad Wallach is just 23 years old, and in two years of minor league experience—mainly at Low-A—he slashed .293/.392/.399. It may be a while before we see him in Cincinnati, but the Reds organization looks to have acquired a competent bat. He was a fifth-round draft pick for the Marlins in 2013.

So, what to make of all these new faces? Jocketty moved two arbitration-eligible players for four manageable contracts.

The Reds’ 2015 rotation does take a hit. As of now, it’s Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and we’ll assume DeSclafani and Tony Cingrani at the back end, but it wouldn’t surprise me if another starting pitcher was added from the wire.

You also have to think that all of this payroll shedding paves the way for the Reds to get the corner outfielder they want. Jocketty told the Cincinnati Enquirer‘s John Fay the following: “This is it for now, we’ve gotten close to where we need to be, and now we can concentrate on some of the needs we have.”

So look for more to come. While the 2015 Reds didn’t get any better, it’s promising to know the franchise can breathe. The moves in total saved about $15 million in payroll for Cincinnati (probably more because of arbitration).

I’m accepting late assignments for the holidays. After further review, Jocketty gets a solid B+ for the winter meetings this year. The 2015 product has gotten weaker—for now—but the franchise and its outlook beyond one season improved significantly.

A new era of pitchers will be breeding in the depths of Cincinnati’s minors, and names like Robert Stephenson, Ben Lively, DeSclafani, Cingrani and Nick Howard make for an exceptional contingency plan should Cueto and Leake depart.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Cincinnati Reds: 4 Reds Earning a Spot on the 2015 25-Man

The to-do list for the 2014-2015 Cincinnati Reds offseason seems to grow by the day as more and more rumors surrounding the dealing of Aroldis Chapman, Brandon Phillips and others circulate. And while a 72-84 record is bad enough to make the short to-do a whole laundry list of items, the truth is, there is still real talent on this 2014 product beyond the obvious talent. 

Some of the September call-ups are making the most out of their limited time in the big leagues. Some are demonstrating why they have had successful MLB stints elsewhere. While the 2014 campaign is a failure, the month of September has been a grand audition for what might be future cogs of this organization.

The following are four Reds who currently are either not signed through 2015 or who aren’t on the 25-man roster. The order will range from no-doubter to deserving-but-unlikely. 

 

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Begin Slideshow


Cincinnati Reds: Must Learn to Walk Before They Can Win

It’s a topic no one feels like talking about. It’s a stat commonly dismissed, regarded as weak or passive. And in 2014, it is killing the Cincinnati Reds offense.

Take a brief stroll through Twitter to find out what people think of walking, especially regarding Joey Votto, who has built a reputation for accumulating bases on balls (BBs):

 

 

 

 

 

 

While this toxic train of thought seemingly pollutes the general public, it flows from a main water line. In this case, Reds Hall of Fame commentator Marty Brennaman. Lance McAlister tweeted a quote from Marty in June 2013, a year in which Votto would finish as the No. 1 run creator in the NL:

 

The prevailing thought of RBI being more important than BB isn’t relegated to just spectators of the sport either. Take the Chicago Cubs‘ Anthony Rizzo, for example, who on June 25 offered this to ESPN.com’s Sahadev Sharma:

I don’t really take pride in walkingI don’t really want to walk,” he said. “I’d rather drive the ball in the gap. But if I get a free pass, I get a free pass. It just depends on the situation. It really comes down to me swinging at the right pitches, and if I don’t get them and I have to walk, then I’ll walk.

Which of course is interesting when you consider the fact that Anthony Rizzo is on pace to finish the season with the highest on-base percentage (OBP) of his career (currently .376), thanks in large part to an increasing amount of walks.

The debate over RBI vs. OBP doesn’t need to be revisited in this space. Furthermore, to continue to acknowledge that it’s even a debate would be insulting to those who understand that there is no RBI without OBP.

Instead, I invite Reds fans to take a serious look at what the contenders in the NL are doing compared to the Reds in relation to walks. And feel free to keep the opening quotes from random fans and Brennaman in mind when reading the following. This won’t be hardcore sabermetrics. It won’t be anything mind-blowing, but hopefully mildly enlightening.

First, let’s observe the Reds and their walk total. At 397, that’s No. 21 in the sport. The Milwaukee Brewers are the only contending NL team with fewer walks than the Reds. The free-falling Brewers. 

Is anyone surprised, or repulsed, that Votto, who has played 62 games on the year, still leads this team in walks? Forty-seven walks from a guy who played 62 games, and most of those 62 two games were played on one leg. That’s the guy leading the team in BB.

I’ll provide a quick run-down of the top five Reds in walks, then we’ll compare their totals to the other contenders. Keep in mind, this is a Reds team that ranks third-worst in the entire sport in OBP, according to ESPN.com.

Joey Votto: 47
Todd Frazier: 46
Jay Bruce: 44
Devin Mesoraco: 40
Billy Hamilton: 32

The top five walkers on the Reds account for a meager 209 walks. 

By itself, this shouldn’t mean much, other than the fact that someone with nearly half the amount of games is still leading the team in BB. Now look at the five best walkers on the NL contenders, put them in relation to the Reds, and keep that terrible Reds OBP stat in mind:

Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yasiel Puig: 64
Adrian Gonzalez: 52
Matt Kemp: 51
Hanley Ramirez: 51 
Andre Ellis: 50

Total: 268 walks

Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew McCutchen: 72
Russell Martin: 56
Ike Davis: 54
Pedro Alvarez: 45
Neil Walker: 45

Total: 272 walks

St. Louis Cardinals:

Matt Carpenter: 88
Matt Holliday: 69
Jhonny Peralta: 56
John Jay: 28
Yadier Molina: 27

Total: 268 walks

Washington Nationals:

Adam LaRoche: 79
Jayson Werth: 75
Anthony Rendon: 53
Denard Span: 48
Ian Desmond: 41

Total: 296 walks

San Francisco Giants:

Brandon Crawford: 56
Hunter Pence: 50
Buster Posey: 44
Gregor Blanco: 39
Pablo Sandoval: 39

Total: 228 walks

The above are the five NL teams currently occupying a playoff spot. And while we have no interest in seeing our best players walk, the aforementioned teams are walking right into October. The Reds, meanwhile, continue their hacktastic approach to the game.

And that’s what Reds fans want, right? See the above tweets. We don’t want our best players to walk. They aren’t paid to walk; rather, they’re paid to hit home runs and drive in runners. They’re paid to amass RBI.

But how does one amass RBI with no one on base? Sure, there’s always the strategy of just putting it over the wall every at-bat, but some might argue that’s the Reds’ current approach. 

Yes, the hits are down, and a .239 team batting average is terrible. But the Reds don’t lead baseball in strikeouts (No. 9 in the NL), meaning they are putting plenty of balls in play…for outs.

According to FanGraphs.com, the Reds are No. 8 in O-swing percentage, meaning swings at balls out of the strike zone. Their swing percentage is an overall 48.1 percent, the No. 8 most swing-happy team in the sport.

The point being: plate discipline is a serious issue in this organization. And rather than supporting the one player on the Reds who understands that plate discipline is ultimately the key to a better offense, that wearing down pitchers is crucial, that an at-bat will not be compromised by simply offering at what the pitcher is serving, we chastise and mock him.

Because guys with high-dollar contracts aren’t paid to walk, right? 

Guys with high-dollar contracts are paid to win baseball games. And as cool as it is to hit home runs and RBI, it’s even cooler to win. That’s what someone like Votto understands. That’s what seemingly every contending team referenced above understands.

The question is, when will the Reds and the bulk of their fans?

 

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Cincinnati Reds: 2015 Reds Bullpen More Vital Than Offense

Though the offense is seemingly everyone’s favorite topic when talking about the miserable season that 2014 has been, the bullpen may be the most crippling facet of this team that isn’t being discussed. That is not to say that the Reds offense is good; rather, it’s to suggest that the Reds offense is good enough to compete in the current landscape of MLB.

While the Reds have only scored 526 runs on the year—third worst in all of the sport—the Atlanta Braves, currently tied for the NL’s second wild-card spot, have scored even fewer runs. Furthermore, the St. Louis Cardinals, who are currently sitting on top of the NL Central now, rank just ahead of the Reds in runs scored (536). 

The Cardinals are the fourth-worst scoring team in baseball, and yet, the Milwaukee Brewers, the No. 3 offense in the NL, is now looking up at the birds. 

If offense is what really matters here, what are we missing?

On ESPN.com, you can follow the downward trajectory of offense by the dwindling amount of runs scored per year. From 2000 to 2009, the best offensive NL team would routinely have 800-plus runs scored. That hasn’t happened for five years now.

This year, on September 5, there is only one team that has over 600 runs, and they’ll be doing the same thing the Reds will be doing this September.

The point is, if you’re talking about offense when discussing the Reds, you’re talking about the wrong topic. Offense is the red herring of baseball.

A prolific offense is fun, but it’s not indicative of a competitor in today’s game. So naturally, if not offense, the focus shifts to pitching.

The Reds have the No. 5 starter ERA in baseball. The ability of this starting core is unquestioned. The bullpen is an entirely different story. With an ERA of four and an abysmal record of 10-27, I maintain that if anything has been the agent of chaos this year, it’s the bullpen.

That’s the story on the season. Not the offense. The injuries, while significant, weren’t enough to keep the Reds just 1.5 games out of first in the NL Central at the break. So with that mind, it’s promising that the Reds will have a new-look bullpen next season.

Anchoring the back of the bullpen will be the under-utilized closer, Aroldis Chapman. That much is certain, especially with the trading of Jonathan Broxton. As of September 5, Chapman has logged just 44.1 innings of work. While utterly depressing, that’s a topic for another rant.

Setting up for Chapman will be a close-up man who doesn’t cost $9 million. Jumbo Diaz has proven himself worthy. In 26.1 innings of work, Diaz has 27 strikeouts and has allowed just nine earned runs. He can hopefully instill the same confidence in himself that people had in Broxton.

The alternative to Diaz in late-innings will be the other multi-million set-up arm, the elusive Sean Marshall. Per Rotoworld.com, Marshall will command $6.5 million next season. Hopefully, he’ll return to health and be the left-handed specialist the Reds thought they stole from the Chicago Cubs.

If not Marshall, what about Ryan Dennick? His one major league inning of flawless work aside, he did have an impressive Triple-A season. Per MILB.com, in 49.2 innings of work, Dennick allowed just 13 earned runs. This lefty might be a capable option if Marshall doesn’t recover. 

Manny Parra will most certainly be back next season. Per Rotoworld.com, he’ll be making $3.5 million. In 33.2 innings of work, Parra has struck out 34 batters, a promising metric. Less promising are the 35 hits allowed in the frame, a .269 opposing batting average and a 1.51 WHIP. Parra struggled with back stiffness mid-year, so hopefully that can be attributed to those poor numbers.

The right-handers will look familiar. Per Rotoworld.com, Sam LeCure will make $1.85 million next season. This has not been a good season for LeCure. Batters are hitting .301 against him. In 46.2 innings of work, he’s allowed 55 hits, good for 20 earned runs. 

Logan Ondrusek is arbitration eligible next year, so he’ll probably return as well. Batters are hitting .278 on Ondrusek this year, which has led to an ERA of 4.30 in just 37.2 innings of work. His 1.46 WHIP instills virtually no confidence.

Unless J.J. Hoover has an amazing spring, it’s less likely we’ll see him next year, and more likely we’ll see the Cuban right-hander Raisel Iglesias. Although he could even end up starting should a starter be dealt this offseason, it’s more likely he’ll continue his role in a relief capacity, considering how awful the right-handed arms in the Reds bullpen currently are. 

Mark Sheldon of MLB.com asserts the Reds want him to eventually start. And while that’s true, the bullpen is in dire condition, and he might best be utilized, at least for next year, in the bullpen.

Tony Cingrani might be the first choice to replace any starter, considering that was predominantly his role this season before getting injured. 

Carlos Contreras may be the next right-handed arm, maybe in an early relief capacity. He has not fared well in the majors this year, albeit with very little exposure. He’s allowed 14 earned runs in 18 innings. At the same time, he’s struck out 18 batters in that time.

BaseballAmerica.com lists Contreras as the Reds’ No. 7 prospect. 

So would this bullpen inspire more confidence in 2015?

CL: Aroldis Chapman
SU: Jumbo Diaz
SU: Sean Marshall / Manny Parra
RP: Sam LeCure
RP: Raisel Iglesias
RP: Ryan Dennick
RP: Logan Ondrusek
RP: Carlos Contreras

The right arms on this list, minus Diaz and Iglesias, really leave much to be desired. The Reds might consider addressing the right arms in this bullpen before getting a left fielder.

 

All stats courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Copyright © 1996-2010 Kuzul. All rights reserved.
iDream theme by Templates Next | Powered by WordPress