Kuzul

While injuries and bullpen woes have been staples of the Cincinnati Reds‘ 2014 campaign, offense has been similarly woeful. We can’t say for certain whether it’s related to injuries to crucial players or not. Is Jay Bruce suffering his worst professional season in seven years because of the shift or because he had a knee surgery in May?

That much is uncertain. What is certain is that the Reds will probably look a little different next year. They’ll  more than likely drop $4.5 million just to give Ryan Ludwick his walking papers. Zack Cozart may finally have worthy competition next spring.

Per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, the Reds plan on trading at least one starting pitcher this offseason. 

#Reds expected to trade at least one starting pitcher this off-season, when they can negotiate with all teams, not just a claiming club.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 27, 2014

If that is indeed the case, it’s likely the team will deal for a new left fielder, assuming Devin Mesoraco isn’t occupying that corner of the outfield.

Per Cincinnati Enquirer beat writer John Fay, the Reds plan on having Mesoraco play different positions next season. The rationale is finding a way to keep his valued bat in the lineup, and with a very capable Brayan Pena, Mesoraco can be liberated to play elsewhere.

Regardless of whether any of the aforementioned actually happens, the 2015 lineup will look different than 2014’s. Here is the lineup that Bryan Price may post on Opening Day of next year:

1. Billy Hamilton, CF—Hamilton isn’t going anywhere. Given an entire major league season to showcase his talent and potential, it’s fair to say Hamilton earned his, well, earned his red. Leadoff was a scary topic going into the 2014 season with the loss of Shin-Soo Choo. But when you compare their numbers, and consider the fact that Choo will miss the remainder of the year with an elbow surgery (per CBSSports.com), the Reds somehow got the better of this exchange.

2. Joey Votto, 1B—Whether you love or hate him, expect a healthy Joey Votto to pick up right where the healthy Joey Votto left off: the No. 1 run producer in the NL in 2013. His presence will be significant on a lineup that ranks near dead last in OBP.

3. Todd Frazier, 3B—Frazier has demonstrated the ability to produce in timely situations and provide power for a lineup that needs it. There’s no reason he can’t bat third next year and hopefully have Hamilton and Votto in front of him more often than not.

4. Devin Mesoraco, LF—An impressive 2014 campaign should be enough evidence that the Reds can rely on Mesoraco to hit cleanup. While he trails Frazier by two home runs for team leader in the category, it’s worth noting Mesoraco has played in nearly 30 fewer games.

5. Brandon Phillips, 2B—It’s a better idea to bat Phillips ahead of Jay Bruce. As of August 28, Phillips has nearly 50 fewer strikeouts than Bruce. And while this year may be a statistical aberration for Bruce (he did have knee surgery in May and is coincidentally having his worst professional season in seven years), the Reds cannot afford strikeouts in the middle of the order with guys on base.

6. Jay Bruce, RF—The Reds need this guy to come back strong. Whether he can beat the shift or not, Bruce has to cut down on the strikeouts and at least put the ball in play more. A promising fact is that what he’s doing now is largely inconsistent with his career slashing line of .252/.326/.470, so there’s little evidence to believe that next season looks like this one.

7. Brayan Pena, C—If Pena can keep his present-day .259 batting average, there’s no reason he can’t be contributing from the No. 7 spot in the lineup. His OBP isn’t great and neither is his slugging, but this far down, it’s just nice to have a guy who can make contact and hit for an OK average.

8. Zack Cozart, SS—Assuming Cozart is still the guy next year, and he may be because of his Gold-Glove-worthy performance this season, he’ll be right back where Reds fans are used to seeing him. Hopefully, the performances of both Rey Navarro at Triple-A and Kris Negron will be enough to get either some playing time, as both appear more capable at the plate than Cozart. 

9. Homer Bailey, P—Because it is all but certain that one man between Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos will be moved this offseason, let’s just stick to the one pitcher we know for a fact will be a Red next year.

Does this lineup inspire confidence for the 2015 campaign? There are a couple things that could be assumed with a higher degree of confidence:

• Jay Bruce will return to his performance of the previous six years instead of the outlier he’s having this year.
• Joey Votto will finally be healthy. He’s still leading the team in OBP despite playing 62 games on arguably one leg. With two legs, watch out.

Should both of those happen, there’s real hope for the above lineup. Should one of the starting pitchers be moved, it’s a safe bet that it brings in a capable bat in the outfield. That would of course remove Pena from the lineup as Mesoraco moves to the plate.

If said bat were acquired, whoever he his, if he can hit cleanup or fifth, it’s not far-fetched to imagine Bruce hitting seventh. For an NL lineup, that would be impressive. 

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It’s finally come to this, Cincinnati Reds fans. With virtually no hope remaining in what has been one of the more miserable, disappointing Reds seasons to date, we shift our focus to 2015. In Redsland, 2015 is all we have. Beyond that, very little is guaranteed. 

Anyone with even a fractional interest in this team understands where improvements need to be made.

For years, dating back to 2010, left field has been a constant area of debate. We remember the days of the Jonny Gomes and Chris Heisey platoon. Ryan Ludwick was supposed to put an end to that, but in typical Reds fashion, a crippling injury in 2013 has reduced Ludwick to a shell of his former self.

He was signed by Walt Jocketty to essentially be the power bat in the middle of the order. But Ludwick has just 10 home runs in the near 479 plate appearances since he injured his shoulder on Opening Day of 2013. The power outage seems to be real. But it was probably expected considering he is 36 years old anyway.

And it’s not just the power. Everything from batting average, OBP and slugging have all been down since the beginning of 2013. With that in mind, it’s probably realistic that the Reds will spend $4.5 million just to send Ludwick off.

And with his departure comes the topic of replacements. 

The popular idea may be to just hit the market and sign a big bat. But with so many vital players approaching arbitration, that’s unlikely. Because of what these players are making now, it is not far-fetched to assume that Mike Leake and Mat Latos get salaries close to or above $10 million. 

Alfredo Simon’s salary will likely jump from just $1.5 million to maybe somewhere around $5 million, but that is strictly a guess and is in no way validated. Could be more, could be less.

Then there are, of course, the salaries of Jonathan Broxton, Sean Marshall, Homer Bailey, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto.

Unless there is a decision to increase payroll, it is highly unlikely the Reds will have the cash necessary to procure the services of a bona fide cleanup hitter from the market. Therefore, they may have to consider internal options.

But is that a bad thing? With a healthy Votto, a healthy Jay Bruce, Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier, aren’t any of them qualified to bat cleanup?

In my opinion, there are enough able bats on a healthy Reds roster to hit for power. But OBP is a major problem. Per ESPN.com, the Reds are No. 28 in OBP, nearly dead last. That, more than nearly anything else, needs to be addressed. The following are three guys who may be able to help do that from left field.

Jason Bourgeois

Jason Bourgeois is the starting center fielder for the Triple-A Louisville Bats. This 32-year-old right-handed option is no stranger to the big leagues. He’s had stints with the Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals and Milwaukee Brewers. 

With a very limited time in the majors, his slash line after just 515 plate appearances in six years is .259/.305/.326. Surely that doesn’t blow anyone away, but that’s a very limited sample size.

In 15 minor league seasons, Bourgeois is slashing .282/.342/.386. This year, he’s slashing .283/.336/.372. He has 143 hits in 126 games played. This isn’t a power hitter, and he won’t drive in many runs, but he gets on base at a healthy pace and can steal a base. 

Felix Perez

Felix Perez has played mostly right field in Louisville this season in a year in which he was named to the Independent League All-Star game. On the season, Perez is slashing .282/.328/.456. This 29-year-old has spent five seasons in the Reds farm system. His slash line for those five years is .281/.330/.405.

Unlike Bourgeois, Perez does have some power. He’s got 11 home runs in 425 at-bats and 68 RBI to add to that. He also has 150 games of left field experience in five minor league seasons, with a fielding percentage of .990.

Per Rotoworld, Perez was once a prized prospect of the New York Yankees, but he lost out on a $3.5 million signing bonus when it was discovered that he lied about his age.

Devin Mesoraco

That’s right. According to Cincinnati Enquirer beat writer John Fay, the Reds plan on possibly moving Mesoraco around a bit next spring. Per Fay, Mesoraco is willing, saying:

If that’s something I was asked to do, I’d absolutely do it. There’s a few positions that I could play, probably first base, maybe left field, that would take more work. But I don’t see any harm in doing it. Spring training as long as it is, there’s plenty of time for it. I’d be more than willing.

This is a likely option to consider, because with Brayan Pena inked through next season, he’ll be able to play catcher while Mesoraco‘s bat stays in the lineup. It has been a challenge to keep him in the lineup for Bryan Price this year, so if Mesoraco becomes more versatile, it will help things out a lot.

Remember, while none of these options will blow you away, keep payroll in mind. It won’t be the No. 4 hitter who takes the Reds to the next level. It will be the team’s dominant pitching staff and, hopefully, its restructured, healthy bullpen.

The Reds need money to secure the very core of their team moving forward, so left field should be addressed as cost-efficiently as possible.

*Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.

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Following the disaster in Colorado, most Cincinnati Reds fans finally said farewell to a painful season full of hopes and what-ifs. That was, of course, before another walk-off defeat in St. Louis.

While the attitude inside of the clubhouse is probably still focused on 2014, the fact remains that this depleted Reds team probably won’t be able to compete for the last wild-card spot (they need to jump four teams now), so the focus will shift to 2015.

Next year, the Reds will look similar to this year, hopefully with far less significant injuries. While we can assume certain guys won’t be returning next year, there are a few players who will need to use the rest of the season to solidify their spots on the roster—either with the Reds or with another team.

The following is a short list of four Reds trying to save their jobs for the 2015 season. The order of the list will range from guys most likely to keep their same role with the Reds to guys who will just be trying to make a major league roster next year.

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On August 15, Reds Nation stands at the intersection of desperation and dismissal. After losing to the Colorado Rockies and dropping now four of their last five games, all to teams beneath .500, the Reds have fallen back to beneath .500 for the first time since July 30.

The narrative quickly shifts from last-ditch optimism to forced apathy. For most fans, it’s almost easier not to care about the remaining 40-plus games of this snake-bitten season than to invest any more effort into caring.

And while Rome is supposedly burning, as Cincinnati Enquirer columnist Paul Daugherty writes after another Reds loss, the Reds still bewilderingly sit just four games out from the second National League wild-card slot and 6.5 behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers.

According to Cincinnati Enquirer beat writer C. Trent Rosecrans, Brandon Phillips is beginning a rehab assignment on August 15 with the Triple-A Louisville Bats. Furthermore, per the same article, Joey Votto may be two weeks away from resuming baseball activities.

But can the Reds remain in contention until their best players return? It won’t be easy. With no obvious trade in sight, despite a lot of we-need-a-bat talk void of any real substance, the Reds have to consider making any move possible to generate more offense.

I feel like there is one move in particular that accomplishes this: Kristopher Negron for Zack Cozart at shortstop when Brandon Phillips finally returns.

Reds fans need to be aware of just how valuable Zack Cozart has been before they talk about replacing him. With a 2.7 dWAR, this man owns the No. 3 dWAR in all of baseball. That’s incredible.

But now it’s time to decide what the Reds need more right now—offense or defense?

Cozart has been incredibly useful in his capacity. But in a time when offense is at a premium, the Reds should consider making any move they can to address the void. Cozart‘s slash line of .228/.275/.303 is a major pressure point of the Reds lineup. 

While his dWAR is one of baseball’s best, his oWAR is nowhere close. At 0.2, Cozart is simply providing nothing from an offensive standpoint. At least nothing consistently. 

Kristopher Negron, on the other hand, has demonstrated real promise, at least in a very small sample size. In just 65 plate appearances, Negron is slashing .246/.292/.459.

Obviously, this doesn’t blow away Cozart‘s numbers (minus the slugging). But look at the power. Negron has three home runs in 65 plate appearances. Cozart has three home runs in 430 plate appearances. 

Plus, consider runs created per game. Cozart‘s RC sits at 2.8. Negron‘s is 5.3.

Negron won’t be able to replicate the glove of Cozart. But it’s worth noting that he has 461 games in the minor leagues at shortstop. So there’s no reason to believe he’ll be lost at sea.

As for the limited sample size—while Negron‘s numbers don’t demonstrate a propensity for prolonged success, it’s also worth noting that his batting average and OBP have increased in now five consecutive years.

Isn’t this a trajectory worth taking a gamble on?

Let’s revisit the obvious: There realistically isn’t any outside offensive help coming. And considering that’s the biggest problem with the Reds at the moment, they have to consider every internal option they have to make up some of the production.

The exceptional pitching that the Reds do have will mitigate the damage of losing such a valuable glove at shortstop. Negron has nine minor league seasons at shortstop, with a .963 fielding percentage at the position. 

In four seasons in the majors, Cozart boasts a .980 fielding percentage.

It’s a difference, but you decide, Reds fans: Is this disparity in fielding percentages worthy of consideration above the obvious offensive upgrade that Negron could provide?

I’m not suggesting that Bryan Price should relegate Cozart to the bench—but might he still be able to help the team in a more Chris Heisey fashion as a late-game sub?

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.

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The Cincinnati Reds are painful to watch at the plate right now. In the last 17 games, the Reds have averaged 2.4 runs per game. Monday night, August 4, marked the 25th time overall this season the Reds have scored one run or less. 

At 418 runs, this Reds offense is officially third worst in the National League. It’s only better than St. Louis and San Diego. 

Let’s examine the correlating abysmal offensive stats that comprise the third-worst NL offense. The Reds have 912 hits on the year, No. 12 in the NL. At 1,399 bases, they have tallied the fourth-worst amount of bases in the NL. 

Third worst in RBI. No. 11 in the NL in batting average. And worst than any other offensive statistic, and there are plenty to choose from, the Reds have a team on-base percentage of just .301, .10 beneath the National League average.

We look across the division at the offensively challenged St. Louis Cardinals. And while they’re comparable with the Reds in nearly every offensive statistical category, the Cards are No. 4 in the NL in OBP. Their .317 OBP dwarfs the Reds’ .301.

That may be a reason why a team that has scored fewer runs than this anemic Reds offense sits higher in the standings. It’s not the pitching—the Reds’ team ERA is 3.42; the Cardinals’ is at 3.50. The Reds have allowed the same amount of runs on the season as the Cardinals (407). 

Arguably the most crippling facet of this Reds offense right now is its inability to work pitchers, drive pitch counts up and, ultimately, cash in baserunners for runs. That’s evident by the Reds’ poor amount of walks on the season.

They’ve totaled 294 walks and are No. 11 in the NL in that category. The Milwaukee Brewers are the only team beneath the Reds in this category that occupies a playoff spot at the moment. They also have the second-best offense in the NL.

Most analysis surrounding the Reds of late has focused on their terrible inability to hit with runners in scoring position. But on the season, that’s not entirely accurate, at least not to the point that it accounts for what Reds fans are witnessing right now.

According to TeamRankings.com, the Reds rank just No. 8 in runners left in scoring position per game. In fact, they leave fewer runners in scoring position per game than the best offense in the NL (the Colorado Rockies). 

That doesn’t mean the Reds are efficient at hitting with runners in scoring position. It probably means that their opportunities are far fewer than what other teams generate.

TeamRankings.com also illustrates the few amount of baserunners the Reds leave on base per game (13.33) in comparison to the rest of baseball. They leave the fourth-fewest runners on base in the majors probably because they don’t get enough baserunners on in the first place to lead in this category.

Per TeamRankings.com, the Reds average just 2.64 walks per game. That’s No. 24 in baseball. 

What are the Reds missing? Among other things, they’re missing their best hitter. Say whatever you want about Joey Votto, but he’s played nearly half the amount of games as his teammates—on one leg—and still owns the highest on-base percentage on the team.

For as much criticism as Votto will incur because of his propensity to walk, the team would be decidedly better if more Reds adopted this approach. Not that everyone should be looking to walk; rather, if hitters didn’t settle for balls outside of the strike zone, if batters made pitchers work to get them out, the Reds would find more opportunities with runners in scoring position, and likely more RBI because of it. 

Look at it this way: Per SportingCharts.com, Jay Bruce is the Red who currently sees the most pitches per plate appearance at four. In 62 games played this season, Votto‘s averaged 4.32 pitches per plate appearance. 

This, of course, enables pitchers like the Arizona Diamondbacks‘ Josh Collmenter to throw complete-game shutouts, like the one he threw back on May 29 in the Diamondbacks’ 4-0 victory over the Reds. Prior to that game, Collmenter hadn’t pitched more than seven innings in any other outing this season. When batters are that content to offer at anything and retire themselves, it looks easy.

Could the Reds use a bat? Sure. But would even an Edwin Encarnacion home run do much without anyone in front of him?

Is the problem rooted deep within the organization? That’s unknown from my vantage point. But the inability to get on base has been an enormous problem during both Votto DL stints. 

According to ESPN.com, the Reds achieve their highest OBP in the months featuring Votto, primarily April and June. Sounds obvious. Interestingly enough, April and June are the only two months the Reds tallied 100 runs or more.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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In the midst of a four-game losing streak, there are a lot of questions surrounding the Cincinnati Reds. Though they rest just 3.5 games out of first place in the National League Central, they’re surrounded by three other teams all within reach and in no hurry to fade any time soon.

The details are obvious. Joey Votto is making his second extended stay on the disabled list (DL). To complement this crippling void, the Reds will be without Brandon Phillips for possibly the same amount of time.

According to ESPN baseball analyst and former Reds general manager Jim Bowden, the Reds are at least five weeks away from getting Votto and Phillips back. 

#Reds GM Walt Jocketty just told us that both Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips are approximately 5 weeks away…ouch Sirius 209 XM 89

— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) July 20, 2014

Because the Reds will be without two pillars of their offense, the pressure to produce will likely shift to three main candidates: Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco and Jay Bruce.

Frazier and Mesoraco have seemingly done everything in their power to ensure the Reds’ offense has runners crossing the plate. Frazier is hitting .286/.346/.495 and has arguably been the Reds’ first-half MVP. 

He leads the team in hits (108), home runs (20), RBI (54) and runs scored (58). At this juncture, he is the most important Red swinging the bat.

Mesoraco has been contributing at a high volume as well. He’s hitting .294/.365/.583 and his .294 batting average and .593 slugging are both a team-best. 

Jay Bruce has been a different story. Bruce was given the opening game against the first place Milwaukee Brewers after a horrendous series in New York. In three games after the All-Star break, Bruce went 0-for-11 with just one walk and five strikeouts in that time.

He’s currently riding a four-game hitless streak where he’s 0-for-15.

Bruce’s streakiness is no surprise to anyone. Throughout his seven MLB seasons, he’s been prone to prolonged slumps that can last months. But this season looks very different than the rest.

Right now, Bruce is sporting career lows in a number of categories, including batting average, OBP, slugging and OPS. Last year, the left-handed slugger finished the season with a 5.13 seasonal WAR (per ESPN.com/MLB). According to Baseball-reference.com, Bruce’s offensive WAR is currently 0.3.

And the team is definitely feeling it. Bruce’s production is so pivotal to the Reds’ success. His splits in wins and losses are only too revealing to how much the Reds are depending on him.

In Reds victories this season, Bruce is hitting .278/.352/.500. In losses, Bruce’s slash line plummets to .152/.242/.265. At the risk of being too cliche, the difference is night and day.

Losing Joey Votto means losing quite arguably the best left-handed bat the Reds have to send to the plate.

That places even more emphasis on the need for Jay Bruce to figure it out, because there has to be a bat in the lineup that can punish exceptional right-handed pitching.

A crippling facet of Bruce’s game of late has been his propensity to strike out. While he’s always been known to pile on strikeouts throughout the year, this year, he’s almost on pace to eclipse his previous high of 185 that he achieved just last season.

Also, for the first time in his entire career, Jay Bruce has a fielding percentage of less than .900. He’s currently at .875. The current average fielding percentage throughout the league in right field is .993. 

It’s understandable why Bryan Price gave Bruce they day off on Monday’s opener against the Brewers. On the season, Bruce is hitting just .176/.263/.294 against the division rivals.

He was on the DL the last time the Reds played the Nationals (who the Reds play after Milwaukee), so there’s nothing on the books to project performance in that series.

Against the Arizona Diamondbacks this year, the team the Reds will face after the Nationals, Bruce is hitting just .200/.273/.200. Then the Reds will play two teams they haven’t seen yet this season: Miami Marlins and the Cleveland Indians.

That makes the short-term prognosis on Bruce not very positive, especially when you consider the Nationals and their No. 1 ERA in baseball (per ESPN.com/MLB).

But while the immediate future looks grim, the Reds will need their young slugger to snap out of whatever he’s going through. With reportedly five weeks to go before either Votto or Phillips return, the onus will fall on Jay Bruce to be the left-handed bat who keeps the Reds within striking distance until the team is whole again.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Reds roll into the All-Star break just 1.5 games back of first-place Milwaukee and seven games above the .500 mark. Two weeks ago, the Reds were flirting with .500 and anywhere from seven-to-eight games back of first.

A lot has changed in so little time. The Reds went 6-2 last week alone. 

What’s most remarkable about this recent Reds run is that it’s being facilitated by names Reds fans might never expect to witness on a Reds Top 10 list, but their contribution has been very real.

Nonetheless, here were the Reds that contributed most to winning four of five from the Chicago Cubs and two of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates.

 All stats courtesy of ESPN.com/MLB unless otherwise noted.

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On Tuesday, Reds fans look to the standings and finally see a winning baseball team. It took 70-plus games, but there is no denying the difference Reds fans have witnessed since the team got healthy. 

The Reds faced a tall order last week. They went into Pittsburgh and faced the division rival Pirates, who were just one game beneath .500 when the Reds showed up and one game ahead of the Reds in the standings. Then, they hosted the AL East first-place Blue Jays, MLB‘s No. 3 offense.

Offense has commandeered the list of the top 10 Reds of Week 12, and the bullpen, which was getting heavy exposure for a while, has gone missing.

All stats courtesy of ESPN.com

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Cincinnati Reds fans will have now seen 30 percent of this list in live action following the debut of Carlos Contreras last Saturday. The young right-hander had a great outing in a low-stress situation.

Billy Hamilton has been scorching hot, and Tucker Barnhart continues to climb his way back up in batting average, in case he’s ever needed again.

The rest have had mixed results. 

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After seven long weeks atop the Reds player power rankings, Johnny Cueto was officially lifted from the throne following a disastrous outing against the Washington Nationals. It was an odd sequence of events; the first two runs to cross the plate were unearned. By that time, Cueto had already been laboring, working nearly every full.

But on a night when the Reds’ ace was less than perfect, the defense behind him was less than adequate, making for a beating at the hands of the Nationals and a new No. 1 in this week’s power rankings.

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