Kuzul

The Atlanta Braves have called up 20-year-old phenom pitching prospect Julio Teheran to make a spot start tonight against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Teheran was rated the No. 5 prospect by Baseball America coming into the 2011 season and is widely regarded as the top pitching prospect in the minor leagues.

His minor league track record speaks for itself. He’s shown outstanding command at all three levels, with a 3.83 strikeout-to-walk ratio, while averaging a strikeout per inning (9.0 K/9). Here’s something else to drool over from a scout via Future Shock: Julio Teheran: One-Night Stand by Kevin Goldstein:

 

A scout currently in his fourth decade of evaluating players was gushing over Teheran today. “I’ve never put a higher grade on a 20-year-old pitcher in my career.” Going deeper into Teheran’s arsenal explains why. “He was 92-96 for me while averaging 95, and the pitch is hitter-untrackable, as he hides his arm behind his back and it explodes on hitters. That combination of arm velocity and deceptive velocity is a rare and beautiful thing.”

 

The secondary offerings earn nearly as much praise. “It’s an average curveball right now, but I put a projectable 60 on it,” the scout continued. “While the changeup is a present 60 than could end up a 70 down the road. On my scouting report, under weaknesses, I simply put, ‘no glaring weaknesses.’ (full credit for quote belongs to Kevin Goldstein)

However, even if Teheran throws a no-hitter, he’s going back to AAA Gwinnett after the game. The Braves simply do not have a rotation spot available to him at this time, and rightfully so. Atlanta’s rotation currently boasts a 2.97 ERA. There’s nothing wrong with that, folks.

It’s just pure happenstance that Teheran is even making his debut tonight, because it also happens to be his turn in the rotation (at Gwinnett), making him the logical choice. A spot opened up in the rotation from the doubleheader with the Brewers earlier in the week, and you can’t blame the Braves for not wanting to throw Tim Hudson on three days rest.

It will be an incredible learning experience for Teheran, because he’s not facing some run of the mill team. It’s the defending NL East Champions under the lights in Philadelphia. He will gain invaluable nuggets to take back with him to AAA and build on.

He will certainly be a mainstay for the Braves rotation in the years to come, but 2011 is not his year barring an injury or performance issues in the big league rotation. Until further notice, enjoy the show tonight starting at 6:05 PM CDT.

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment box below. You can e-mail me suggestions or questions at jtmcadams@aol.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoeSportswriter.

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You hear it every year: Don’t pay for saves.

Yet, you still take a big name closer before the seventh round each season.

The overused cliche rings with truth and I can attest to it. You simply should not be wasting high draft picks on closers.

Before I go any further, I should make it clear that I’m talking about rotisserie leagues with standard 5×5 categories. Obviously certain custom leagues could place more value on relief pitchers, but this is not the case here.

Last year in my private league with friends, I waited until the 15th round to select my first closer, Frank Francisco, watching 17 closers/relief pitchers fly off the board before making my selection. I then selected Michael Wuertz (19), Scott Downs (20) and Jon Rauch (22).

That’s three selections after pick number 200. Did this pay off? In short, no, but it did allow me to boost the other areas of my team by waiting so long.

Francisco got off to a horrid start and relinquished his role to Neftali Feliz. He battled injuries and wouldn’t save a game after May, but he did end up with a nice 2010 season.

Michael Wuertz was a disaster until the second half. Scott Downs was brilliant, but never wrestled the closer role away from Kevin Gregg.

Jon Rauch, on the other hand, was a sparkling success. If only he had spent the first half of the season on my team. I inexplicably dropped him for someone I cannot remember. I can’t tell you why I did it. I can only tell you that I am notorious for making questionable moves.

I once traded Adrian Beltre for Bill Mueller in 2004. I told the owner of Mueller that I had a hunch that Beltre was going to have a nice year. Mueller had just come off of a career year (.326 / 17 HR) and I thought it was definitely the right move. My hunch was right, but I never expected Beltre to produce his best season to date that year (.334 / 48 HR / 121 RBI).

That was easily my worst moment, but I was a rookie then. I can’t say I’ve learned from my mistakes though. I dropped Ryan Braun in his rookie season (before he really got hot) and I also dropped Buster Posey last year (while I still had a healthy Carlos Santana and Posey hadn’t flashed any power yet).

Still, even after the tumultuous disaster of my drafting relief pitchers I would place fourth in saves, netting me nine points. I had 93 saves and I was way behind the top three in the league (3rd place finished at 117). My final roster ended with Neftali Feliz (acquired by trade), Chris Perez and Brandon Lyon. All three of those guys took over the closer role at some point in the season.

This is just one of many examples of why not to reach for closers in your draft.

I follow this strategy every year. It usually gets me at least one closer who saves a lot of games. The rest of my saves come through trades or waiver wire pickups (Papelbon, 2006). In my last three seasons, I’ve place 3rd twice in the saves category and 4th once.

Here are some sure fire strategies to selecting your relief pitchers.

1. Don’t panic when a run starts on closers.

During every draft, a run or two will take place on closers. You’ll see your queue dwindle in seconds, but don’t panic. Instead, take a player that someone else passed on because they joined in on the run. Solid closers open up on the waiver wire every year and your pick can best be spent on a bat or a pitcher that offers upside.

I generally wait until the 13-15th rounds to take my first closer. By then, I’ve filled out most of my offense as well as a few starting pitchers. If it doesn’t work out, well….

2. Be Aggressive.

If you follow this strategy, you will have to be aggressive with free agents. This means picking some guys up before they take over the role (I grabbed Papelbon in 2006 after watching his first appearance of the season) or making a small swap via trade. Free agency is your best bet.

Make sure you grab at least one guy in your draft who is locked in as a closer beginning the season. It won’t always work out this way, but it helps.  

Keep a watchful eye on the volatile bullpens and be ready to pounce. Guys like Kerry Wood or Octavio Dotel are almost destined to pass the torch at some point during the season.

3. Ride the hot hand.

Don’t avoid a guy just because he may lose his job in a week. You never know what might happen, and that guy could end up holding on to the role longer than anticipated. Two weeks of extra saves from a part-time closer could give you a leg up later in the season. Scrap for those saves.

4. Avoid closer by committees.

Committees can be a mess and I strongly recommend avoiding them. Unless there is a clear cut favorite emerging, save yourself the frustration and move on.  

5. It’s not the name on the front, it’s the name on the back.

It doesn’t matter if a guy plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates or the New York Yankees—if a guy is good enough, he will save games. Take Joakim Soria for example. Soria has finished in the Top five in the saves category in two of the last three seasons despite being on the cellar dwelling Kansas City Royals.

Soria has blown a mere nine saves since 2008. Heath Bell is another great example. The Padres won 75 games in 2009 and Bell saved 42 of those games. You’re missing out on quality closers if you dismiss a player because of his team.

6. Don’t try to win the saves category.

Seriously. Don’t sacrifice early draft picks on a guy that is going to contribute mostly toward one category. As long as you place in the top four or five in saves, then you’re doing just fine.

There will be guys in a lot of leagues who try to hoard all of the saves. Don’t try to compete with that. Just worry about placing high enough.

Following these guidelines won’t guarantee you first place in the saves category, but if you’re aggressive enough and draft the right guys then you will put yourself in good position to place near the top.

It’s entirely possible to wind up with two or even three solid closers by waiting to the middle rounds to make your picks. You have to look at each team’s situation and assess the job security. Realize that every closer’s role is not safe. An injury could befall any player at any moment.

Remember, it’s a long season and you can make a run toward the top even after a month into the season.

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment box below. You can e-mail me suggestions or questions at jtmcadams@aol.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoeSportswriter.

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Petco Park will no longer restrain Adrian Gonzalez from becoming a fantasy monster.

You can just picture him ripping the chains away from Petco Park in a surge of glory. He is free at last.

It has long been the hope of those who owned Gonzalez in a keeper league for him to be dealt to another team. Almost any team. Even in non-keeper leagues, people have been waiting for him to be dealt just to see how he will produce.

Despite the fact that his home park has held him back, Gonzalez has still managed to produce Top 30 numbers.

It’s not just Petco, either. He has been the centerpiece of a very weak lineup since arriving in San Diego. Because of this, Gonzalez rarely saw anything worthy of hitting and he was often pitched around.

Opposing managers won’t have the same luxury of pitching around him in a loaded Red Sox lineup. He could very well be in for a career year.

In 2009, Gonzalez finished the year with 40 homeruns and a .277 batting average. He hit twenty-eight of his 40 homeruns on the road. His batting average away from Petco was .306 and he finished the season with more walks (119) than strikeouts (109).

The splits between home and away tell the story.

So how much better can a career .284 hitter get?

It’s easy to get carried away making gaudy projections for a guy like Gonzalez.

Gonzalez will play pepper with the Green Monster and rack up doubles. The short porch in right field (302″ down the line) is a slugging left hander’s dream and it could increase his homerun totals. He’s not a dead pull hitter, but 22% of balls in play to the outfield go to right field, according to Inside Edge.

He was already an RBI machine in San Diego, averaging 104.8 RBI the past four seasons in a mediocre lineup. His RBI totals could approach the 140-150 range with the Red Sox.

We’re talking about a potential MVP candidate for 2011. Gonzalez flies under the radar in San Diego, but his keen batting eye and mighty bat should almost certainly make him worthy of a first round selection.

How high do you draft him?

Last season, Gonzalez had an average draft position of 29.1 in ESPN leagues. That placed him as a late second-early third round choice at first base.

Notable first basemen who were selected ahead of him were Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira and Prince Fielder. Gonzalez was the sixth first baseman off the draft board in an average draft.

I rate Gonzalez as the third best 1st baseman now—even ahead of Joey Votto. It’s close, though.

I would have no problems drafting Gonzalez late first-early second, even with first base being a deep position. He’s going to produce—there’s no question about that.

What Does This Mean for the Rest of the Red Sox Lineup?

The Red Sox lineup was already quite beneficial to the fantasy game, but it has quickly turned into a gold mine with the recent signing of Carl Crawford. 

It remains to be seen if the Red Sox will keep Jacoby Ellsbury around, but Crawford will certainly hit near the top of the lineup and score a ton of runs.

Dustin Pedroia will also reap the benefits of hitting at the top of the lineup as well. He has yet to top a .300 average since his first two full seasons in the majors, but I can certainly see him going over .300 in this lineup—so long as he stays healthy.

I think the biggest beneficiary of the Gonzalez trade will be Kevin Youkilis. He will gain third base eligibility early in the season and that will give him a spike in value. He’ll be a nice option to consider on draft day, especially given the possibility of a discount due to his injury shortened 2009 season. What’s not to like about .300-25-95-90 from a third baseman?

The 2011 Boston Red Sox lineup will be a fearsome foe, of which I daresay cannot be matched.

2011 Forecast for Adrian Gonzalez: .310 / 40 HR / 125 RBI / 100 R

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment box below. You can e-mail me suggestions or questions at jtmcadams@aol.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoeSportswriter.

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The Atlanta Braves acquired veteran right hander Scott Linebrink today from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for pitching prospect Kyle Cofield.

The move solidified the Braves’ need to add a veteran presence in the bullpen. He will help out with the impressive, young core of arms the Braves already possess.

Kyle Cofield, a towering 6’5″, 230 lbs. right hander, was mostly a starter before he was moved to the bullpen this season. Cofield compiled a 25-26 record and 4.12 ERA through 485 minor league innings pitched, though the 23-year old has yet to advance past Double-A. He has had issues with his command as well, issuing 4.9 BB/9 (walks per nine innings).

Scott Linebrink, 33-year old journeyman, struggled in his time with the White Sox, but that can almost surely be attributed to the hitter’s environment of U.S. Cellular Field.

Linebrink allowed 16 homeruns (eight in 2010) and amassed a 4.65 ERA in 85 innings pitched at U.S. Cellular. Away from the unfriendly confines of his home stadium, Linebrink produced a much more respectable 3.88 ERA—though he allowed 12 homeruns.

Though he isn’t getting any younger, Linebrink should enjoy being back in the National League and have a respectable 2011 campaign with the Atlanta Braves, barring any injuries.

Other Transactions

Matt Diaz has likely played his last game for the Atlanta Braves. The club non-tendered the clubhouse and fan favorite yesterday.

Diaz’ sense of humor, terrorizing of lefties and hard nosed playing style will certainly be missed by Braves players and fans.

Diaz was told he would never be a major league ballplayer, yet the Braves and Bobby Cox took a chance on the relatively unknown 27-year old (at the time). Diaz didn’t disappoint in his five seasons with Atlanta, pounding Johan Santana and other left handed pitchers.

Diaz hit .305 with 41 homeruns, 128 RBIs and 28 stolen bases in 1,385 at bats with the Braves.

While Diaz will not be returning to the ballclub in all likelihood, the move ensured that 1B/OF Eric Hinske would be staying in Atlanta. The Braves locked Hinske up with a one year, $1.45 million deal yesterday as well.

The former Rookie of the Year provided many clutch at bats off the bench and as a starter in 2010. He provides some positional flexibility as well as late inning power off the bench.

We’re just a week away from the Winter Meetings and Frank Wren will go in with a relatively clear conscience. He’s fulfilled the Braves’ most pressing needs thus far and seems to be content. You can’t rule out Wren making a surprise deal, but the Braves’ acquisitions seem to be all but wrapped up unless the Braves get an offer they can’t refuse.

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment box below. You can e-mail me suggestions or questions at jtmcadams@aol.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoeSportswriter.

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Derek Jeter, the captain of the New York Yankees, wants to stay in New York.

The ugly truth, though, is this is a business. It’s a brutal business at times as we have seen with other players who have been committed to their teams. At some point, an organization must decide what is best for them.

It’s encouraging that Jeter and the Yankees had a positive talk a few nights ago, but Jeter really needs to face reality if he wants to suit up for the Yankees next season.

Jeter made $22.6 million last season and $21.6 million the three seasons prior. The Yankees cannot pay him that kind of money any longer, yet he is asking for more.

He’s 36 and coming off one of his worst years statistically. It remains to be seen if it was just a product of his declining ability at the plate or just a bad season. It deserves consideration either way. His defensive play hasn’t shown any signs of decline. He committed a career-low six errors last season. You won’t find a better defensive shortstop out there.

This isn’t your ordinary free agent, though. This is Derek Jeter for crying out loud.

He’s the face of the Yankees. He’s the guy that fans from opposing teams love to hate. He’s as much a part of the Yankees as the pinstripes on the jersey. Can you really see him in another uniform?

Jeter is going to have to cooperate for this to work, though. He can’t expect to make $23-25 million a year from here on out, which is what his agent Casey Close is asking for. Not only that, they are asking for a four-to-six year deal.

Come on. The Yankees have offered a more reasonable, $45 million contract for three years. That’s still more than any other team will pay him, and a fair offer.

Longtime Yankee closer Mariano Rivera just signed a two-year deal worth $30 million. He’s happy with that; Jeter should be too.

My bet is that Jeter will stay with the Yankees. I don’t think there’s any way they can let the face of their franchise walk, but if Jeter doesn’t budge on his position, the Yankees will let him go.

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment box below. You can e-mail me suggestions or questions at jtmcadams@aol.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoeSportswriter.

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Two Thumbs Up

The Colorado Rockies locked up Troy Tulowitzki through the 2020 season with the announcing of a seven-year, $134 million contract earlier today.

Basically, Tulowitzki is going to be a member of the Rockies for the majority of his playing career. He’ll be 36 when his current contract is up.

You can’t blame the Rockies for this one. The 25-year old shortstop is quickly developing into one of the best shortstops in the game, if he isn’t already.

He plays solid defense, runs well and swings a mighty bat.

The Rockies will end up with a huge bargain in the end and that’s what they are hoping for—but it doesn’t come without risk.

Tulowitzki has missed significant time in two seasons now. He sat out most of 2008 with a torn quad muscle. This past season, he suffered a broken wrist after being hit in the hand. The injury caused him to miss a month of the season.

Had he not suffered the injury, Tulowitzki would have been well on his way to another 30 homer, 100 RBI campaign.

I think we will see a 40-homer season from Tulowitzki at some point.

2011 Forecast: .299, 33 HR, 115 RBI, 15 SB, 105 R

Two Thumbs Down

In other news, the Dodgers are reportedly close to signing a three-year, $21 million deal with SS Juan Uribe.

Uribe hit .248 in 148 games with the Giants last season, while posting career highs in homeruns (24) and RBIs (85).

I don’t know why the Dodgers insist on paying Uribe that kind of money to play infield for them. He provides decent pop, but I doubt very seriously that he’ll reach 20 homeruns again.

His defense is average at best, and he produces a lot of outs (career .256 average, .300 OBP).

Uribe hit .280 with 13 homers and 34 RBIs in 261 ABs at AT&T Park last season. To extend upon that, he hit .346 in 182 ABs at AT&T Park with 9 homers and 32 RBI in 2009.

In contrast, Uribe hit a paltry .215 on the road in 2010 and .241 in 2009. Maybe the team that signs him should consider benching him on the road.

This will be another waste of money for the Dodgers organization.

2011 Forecast: 400 ABs, .250, 17 HR, 60 RBI, 45 R

Marlins Bolster Their Staff

Javier Vazquez also cashed in, signing a one-year deal worth $7 million.

Normally, I would say this is a good move, given his poor history pitching for the Yankees, but there are too many red flags here.

He isn’t getting any younger, for one, but he also lost velocity on his fastball last year.

Couple that with career worst ratios in HR/9 (1.8), BB/9 (3.7) and his worst K/9 since his last stint with the Yankees (6.9) and you’ve got yourself quite a risk.

Vazquez likes to use his fastball up in the zone after working his breaking pitches down in the dirt to produce strikeouts. It’s harder to do that when you don’t have your old velocity.

Don’t expect a miraculous recovery in velocity, either. That’s unlikely at his age.

He will really have to use his other pitches effectively if he wants to avoid another 2010 season.

The good news is that he is a different pitcher in the National League—for the better. Another positive, Vazquez only allowed hitters to hit .258 against him last year and 18 of his 32 homers allowed came at Yankee Stadium.

It’s a risky deal for Florida, made even worse by his no-trade clause. That will make dealing him at the break very difficult should he register any success with the Marlins.

2011 Forecast: 165 IP, 6-8, 4.35 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 140 Ks

More to Come

The Winter Meetings are upon us and there are still some very high-profile free agents on the market. It should make for an interesting conclusion to the offseason.

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment box below. You can e-mail me suggestions or questions at jtmcadams@aol.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoeSportswriter.

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Note: I wrote this article on my old blog (11/17/10). Any time-sensitive material should be disregarded.

The Atlanta Braves acquired blue-collar man, Dan Uggla, from the Florida Marlins in exchange for All-Star super utility man Omar Infante and LHP Mike Dunn.

The Braves solidified their need for a legitimate staple in the middle of their order. Uggla provides the right-handed power that Frank Wren was seeking and he didn’t have to give up a single prospect in the deal.

The Marlins have now traded away their starting center fielder (Cameron Maybin has been a bust) for two relievers and their starting second baseman for another reliever and a utilityman. They are at least addressing their needs in the bullpen, but also clearly trying to rebuild once again.

Mike Stanton, their No. 1 prospect coming into last season will be depended on heavily in 2011. He’s really going to have to step up after a solid rookie campaign. I’m sure the Marlins are hoping that he will tone down the outrageous strikeout rate (34.3 percent of the time) and he will over time, but he will always strike out a lot.

Omar Infante had a career year last season and earned his first All Star selection in the process. The Braves will certainly miss his bat and versatility. Mike Dunn showed an ability to get both left handed batters and righties out in a small sample size last season. He struggled with his command, though, issuing 18 free passes in 19 innings pitched. Dunn is only 25 and will help improve a Marlins bullpen that was very average in 2010.

Uggla is coming off a career year as well. He hit 33 homeruns with 105 runs batted in and a shiny .287 batting average. Uggla hit .287 despite drawing 14 fewer walks from his 2009 season where he hit .243. I feel pretty confident Uggla won’t finish the season near the .280 mark in 2011, but I do expect it to fall in the .260-.265 range with his usual 30 homers.

Uggla was a bit lucky last season to have such a high average. He ended the year with a .330 BABIP (Batting Average against Balls In Play, .290 is the league average). In 2009, his .273 BABIP suggests he was a bit unlucky and is probably why his average was a career low .243.

I won’t say that Uggla reaching an average above .270 is impossible, because he did hit .282 in his rookie campaign. His batting eye is at least progressing in the right direction ever so slightly.

If his current numbers at Turner Field are an indication of things to come, then Uggla could make Frank Wren look like a genius. Uggla has been unconscious at Turner Field. In 45 games (181 ABs), Uggla is hitting .354 (.1.051 OPS) with 12 home runs and 36 RBI. Gaudy. The Braves will be glad to see him doing that for them and not against them in 2011.

The Braves desperately needed a power threat in the lineup. Brian McCann has led the team in homeruns the past three seasons and they haven’t had anyone smack 30 homers since 2006 (Andruw Jones – 41, Adam LaRoche – 32). Atlanta finished 20th in the majors with 139 homeruns last season.

The plan is for Martin Prado to shift to left field and Uggla will take over at second base. Prado will help spell Chipper at 3rd base as well. Prado and Uggla are equally average in the field, but Prado is definitely the better fit for the outfield.

Atlanta will now pursue a versatile utilityman to replace Omar Infante. That’s a difficult task, but here’s a few options:

Nick Punto

2010 Salary: $4,000,000

-He’s not as dangerous with his bat, but he plays excellent defense at multiple positions. Punto is a fan favorite and would probably be on the expensive side. He’s played outfield before, but mostly sticks to 2B, SS and 3B. He is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason, but he does have a club option. I feel certain the Twins will exercise his option and keep him in Minnesota.

Miguel Cairo

2010 Salary : n/a — $500,000 (*2009)

–The Reds will try to resign Cairo, but teams will be ready to scoop the journeyman up if he falls into free agency. Cairo can play everywhere but catcher and centerfield and he’s pretty sharp with the glove. He can swing the bat pretty good (.267 career hitter) as well. Cairo would be an excellent fit for the Braves.

He’s been in the playoffs five different times and boasts a .290 postseason average in 68 at bats. The price tag is very affordable for the 36-year old.

Ty Wigginton

2010 Salary: $3,500,000

-Wigginton is likely to go elsewhere, but Baltimore will try and resign him. He mostly plays 1B, 2B and 3B, but he can play the corner outfield positions if needed. He has a powerful bat and can be streaky, but he’s a guy you want in the lineup when he’s seeing the ball well. Wiggy will fetch a higher price than most and doesn’t provide some of the athletic ability that others will, but he’s a solid option.

Jerry Hairston, Jr.

2010 Salary: $2,125,000

-It’s likely the Padres will resign Hairston, Jr. but he is scheduled to be a free agent. I would be shocked if the Padres let him go somewhere else. Hairston is a “five-tool utilityman.” He can play all positions of the outfield and pretty much anywhere in the infield except for catcher. He provides decent speed and a little pop and was also a member of the 2009 World Champion New York Yankees team.

Willie Bloomquist

2010 Salary: n/a — $1,700,000 (*2009)

–Bloomquist can play pretty much every position on the field except for catcher. He’s got some speed and a decent bat (.264 career hitter), but almost no power. He will probably come pretty cheap.

Ramón Vázquez

2010 Salary: $1,875,000

-Journeyman infield specialist who won’t hurt you with his bat or his glove. He’s a solid, cheap option but he has never played outfield in the majors.

Adam Kennedy

2010 Salary: $1,250,000

–Kennedy is probably more of an everyday player still, but he would be an ideal choice for a utilityman. He’s got a World Series ring and sports a .308 postseason batting average in 78 at bats. He can play the corner outfield/infield positions and second base. Kennedy is a career .275 hitter and would be a cheap option.

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment box below. You can e-mail me suggestions or questions at jtmcadams@aol.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoeSportswriter.

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