Kuzul

From a hardcore Red Sox lifer and armchair Orioles fan (gotta love that Camden Yards), I am a Buck Showalter admirer. Heck, I think he’s the best thing to happen for that team since Albert Belle retired.

The results for the Birds after he took the helm last year speak for themselves. Not only did he turn around what would have been an abysmal season, Buck actually got his young crew playing like October meant something other than golf and Xbox 360.

He makes any team better by his sheer presence. The thousand yard stare and instant authority will get more out of any given club than almost any manager. But as baseball gears up for the Showalter-Orioles era, Buck has stepped on Superman’s cape for his opening act.

For those who hadn’t read the minor war of words this past week, Buck Showalter called into question (among other things) the ability of GM Theo Epstein to put a winning team together without the Wayne Manor-like trappings that come with a big-market franchise in Boston.

Fundamentally, I agree with the principle behind his complaints. I have been a firm salary cap believer for many years, going back to the early-2000s when New York’s payroll trumped the competition by a cool $80-90 million annually. The NFL is Exhibit A on why firmer payroll limits actually improve the sport by balancing talent across the League.

Would this negatively impact my team? Absolutely. The Red Sox would be forced to dilute their current talent pool down, which almost assuredly means the departure of two or three impact players over the next few seasons. But the game will be bettered by breaking up the power broker teams and seeing postseason baseball again in Kansas City, Oakland, Washington, and Pittsburgh.

But…my sympathies for the plight of small market teams stretch only so far. The current revenue-sharing model pours millions, and in some cases tens of millions, of dollars into the pockets of low income teams every year. There have been seasons when the Marlins actually spent less on their team than the total amount received from the rest of the League.

Showalter also singled out the Red Sox’s free agency pick-up of Carl Crawford, needling Epstein for spending so much more than everyone else offered, a tactic which requires no special intelligence.

While the Red Sox definitely priced Crawford out of reach of nearly every other team in the hunt, their deal came on heels of the shocking contract struck by Jayson Werth and the Nationals. Washington may get a pass for setting a skewed free agency standard this offseason, given their franchise’s desperate need for an attendance boost after Stephen Strasburg’s injury.

The irony is that it’s often been the mediocre also-rans whose forays into free agency have established bloated high-water marks for baseball elites. Baltimore (Albert Belle in 1998), Colorado (Mike Hampton in 2000), Texas (A-Rod in 2001), Toronto (Vernon Wells in 2006), and San Fran (Barry Zito in 2007) are all guilty of establishing ridiculous precedents in order to get talent in small-mid markets.

Getting back to the issue of Showalter’s criticism of Theo Epstein…Buck may have lamented the big contract, which is a highly visible symbol of franchise wealth. But large free agent signings are not synonymous with the big teams, and frankly are not Showalter’s problem. No, the Orioles’ biggest hurdle is the Red Sox’s ability to pay market rates to everyone on top of their deals with the A-listers.

I also have to take exception with the idea that Buck suggests Boston’s money can take the place of strategy. Let’s not forget that Theo cut his teeth in San Diego, one of the stingiest clubs in modern baseball.

Theo & Co. also deserve a tip of the cap for their work on the farm system. This is one area where the losing clubs don’t get much of my patience or sympathy. The top 15 draft picks are untouchable. They can’t be traded for under any circumstances, or lost due to a Type A signing. Fundamentals are fundamentals, and the inability of teams like Pittsburgh or Houston, whose drafted talent chronically under performs winning teams with lower picks (like the Sox), is frustrating and inexcusable.

I’ve rambled quite a bit, but I wanted to illustrate how unnecessary Buck’s comments were, particularly his choice of targets. I empathize with his team’s needs and the realities of playing in the AL East. Major League Baseball is an unfair game, and I’ll be the first in line to sign a petition to spread the talent out. But attacking the Red Sox on their merits is like spitting in the wind. As if they needed more motivation.

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Over the next several weeks, I’ll be publishing a series of article on the Red Sox farm system, profiling a dozen or so top-tier prospects that have high potentials, and will likely help the club as the next wave of home-grown talent.

When Red Sox outfielders starting dropping like flies last spring and summer, the Boston management scoured their farm system for fresh legs and young arms in hopes of bridging the gap to Ellsbury‘s and Cameron‘s returns without settling for mere placeholders. Darnell McDonald and Daniel Nava gave Red Sox nation memorable debuts with walk-off wins and first-pitch grand slams.

Though the offensive numbers for Boston outfielders failed to impress in 2010, the entertainment value and excitement these two brought to the team far exceeded expectations. But beyond any other call-up the team made in 2010, Triple-A stud Ryan Kalish sparked fire in Red Sox nation and recalled our memories of a similar, gritty rightfielder.

Kalish (22 years, 6’0″, 200 lbs.) started the 2010 campaign in Double-A Portland. He was quickly advanced to Pawtucket by June, and spent the better part of two months at Triple-A before his July 31 call-up. In his half of a season (293 AB) in the minors last year, Ryan compiled some impressive numbers. Between Portland and Pawtucket, Kalish produced an .884 OPS to go along with 47 RBI, and stole 25 bags in 28 attempts.

His BA/OBP/OPS line in the majors of .252/.305/.405 does not have American League pitchers quaking in their cleats at the thought of his arrival. He struck out too much, walked too little, and showed his rawness against better left-handed pitching.

But it should be noted that Kalish improved as the summer waned and September rolled around. More importantly, he dug in and came up clutch in scoring opportunities. His OPS with men on base was .893. With RISP, it was even better at .912.

Defensively, the line on Kalish heading into 2010 was plus range with an erratic arm of mediocre strength. This is one case where the scouting report probably didn’t do its homework, as Kalish showed slightly above-average arm strength and seldom missed cut-off men on extra base hits. As young as he is, there is probably still an opportunity to add arm strength like young pitchers often do.

With Drew‘s inevitable departure after 2011, the rightfield job would seem to be Kalish’s to lose. If there is a challenger to the opening, it may come from Josh Reddick. Josh has shown to be a tremendous athlete with considerable pop in his bat. But Reddick is a year older, and has not risen through the ranks with the offensive consistency needed to escape 4-A status.

On balance, I think the Red Sox will give the nod to Kalish, taking into account his impressive debut, complete skill set, and flair for the big stage.

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Before I get started, a tip of the cap from all of us in Red Sox nation to Theo Epstein, our maverick genius, our watchful protector, our Dark Kni-…never mind. But I stand in awe of what the 37 year old son of Brookline, MA has accomplished.

For the services of Adrian Gonzalez, he still managed to keep Jose Iglesias and our draft picks. Under the cover of darkness, he locked up one of the most complete outfielders in the game and disrupted the Yankee-Lee negotiations with his free hand.

For his next trick, he avoided any long, bloated contracts for relievers and secured the services of two solid bullpen arms, one from a division rival. Bruce Wayne he is not, but it wouldn’t surprise me to find a cape and mask in his secret lair.

Lost in the frenzy over the immediate impact the new additions will make, I’m equally amazed at how well Epstein & Co. has set up the Red Sox to remain successful over the next several seasons. As much excitement as the 2011 campaign holds, I am equally looking forward to the team’s potential 2, 3, and as much as 5 years down the line. Here are a few reasons why…

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In the blitzkrieg of high-profile signings that has been the Red Sox’ offseason, too easily have nagging questions escaped our rose-colored tunnel vision. As star-struck as Boston fans are right now, we’d be sealing our own fates if we hitched our hopes to two free agents and threw caution to the wind.

One important decision yet to be made is who mans the shortstop position in 2011. As critical as the starting pitching is to the Red Sox’ fortunes, it seems highly unlikely that any additions or subtractions will be made at this point. That hand has been dealt.

But Terry Francona can still improve the Red Sox in small but significant ways if he makes the tough decision to start Jed Lowrie over Marco Scutaro. Here are six reasons why…

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I am the first sports fan to admit that statistics spin tall tales as much as they inform.

While number-crunching has allowed us to distill fact from fiction when it comes to performance, stats have also cloaked deceptively bad players under the immunity blanket known as triple crown categories.

Stats are as damning to players as much as they immortalize (see Maris, Roger), and despite several encyclopedic volumes of evidence to the contrary, they are why Yuniesky Betancourt keeps finding work.

But the statistics of baseball have arrived at a crossroads, where the numbers underscore accomplishments that we can’t even see; skills and feats wrapped up inside the very nature of the player.

OBP/OPS/WAR is the new BA/HR/RBI.

Looking back over my young adult life watching the Red Sox play, it’s no great revelation that Pedro was an especially gifted pitcher. For the majority of the Dan Duquette years, he was really the only reason to go see the team on a soggy April day.

Digging deeper, past the awards and the win totals, we find a player who stood so completely above his peers as to transcend the superlatives used to describe him.

Many writers and baseball analysts aptly named him the best pitcher of his generation shortly after he left Boston.

As generous and hyperbolic as that label sounds, it still sells Pedro short and doesn’t really grasp how good this guy was. It’s nice to call him the Best, but I am compelled to defend his honor and try to articulate just how much better he was than everyone.

From his last year in Montreal in 1997, to Pedro’s next-to-last with Boston in 2003, baseball fans were treated to the greatest show on rubber, with all apologies to NASCAR.

In that time, Pedro racked up 118 wins and over 1700 strikeouts. He won three Cy Young Awards, was robbed of another and dazzled NL hitters in the most unforgettable All-Star pitching performance ever.

Tsk-tsk, I had you going, didn’t I?

This article isn’t about wins, hardware or any other subjective achievements. As we saw in 2010, 13 game winners on horrible teams can win Cy Youngs over 21 game winners on postseason clubs.

This article is about the nitty-gritty, invisible, Bill James-ian metrics that take stock of true greatness.

The first obvious stat that makes you take a step back is Pedro’s WHIP. For the statistically uninitiated, WHIP signifies Walks+Hits per Inning Pitched. Essentially, it examines the number of base runners the pitcher allows.

During his prime years from 1997-2003, Pedro allowed a microscopic WHIP of 0.94. A sub-1.00 WHIP means that the pitcher has, over the long haul, more innings without any runners than innings with runners.

This is usually reserved for the elite relievers, given how difficult it is to be so dominant as a starter over 200 innings per year.

Numbers written down have a certain blandness to them and don’t evoke the awe that Martinez deserves, so let me put it another way. Here’s a short list of active pitchers who have never had a sub-1.00 WHIP for even one whole season:

1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Roy Halladay
3. Tim Lincecum
4. Cliff Lee
5. Jon Lester
6. Chris Carpenter
7. Andy Pettitte
8. Felix Hernandez
9. Tim Hudson
10. Roy Oswalt

Do I have your attention now?

Again, Pedro managed to average a sub-1.00 WHIP and the closer-like stinginess that comes with it for seven seasons. Kudos to Johan Santana, who pulled off the feat twice during his years in Minnesota.

I’d be glad to hear from you about any other recent starters who managed it over a full season.

Another astounding component of Martinez’s game was his ability to pitch with the finesse, as if he didn’t also have the stuff to blow guys away. The combination left many batters with bats on their shoulders and zeros in the score books.

Over those seven years, Pedro boasted a K/9 ratio of 11.3. That is power.

Over the same stretch, he amassed an anemic walk rate of 2.0 BB/9. That is finesse.

In fact, it’s better than Cliff Lee.

Take a look at this hitting line: .197/.252/.297

No, that’s not Cesar Izturis’ career stats. And it isn’t the numbers of a decently hitting pitcher. That is the aggregate BA/OBP/SLG that opponents hit off Pedro from 1997-2003.

Yep, the amalgamated production of the average hitter against Pedro had the contact rate of Mark Reynolds, the patience of Jeff Franceour and all the power of Juan Pierre.

This imaginary player might make a team for the sheer entertainment value of his futility.

But now, I wish to speak of the Year 2000, a year which held promise for all of us at the dawning of a new millennium. In typical Dan Duquette fashion, the Sox starting strong and fizzled late.

But their mediocrity was not a product of the season of Pedro Martinez. Take a look:

1.74 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, Opponents’ BA/OBP/SLG: .167/.213/.259

If any among you think that this is not that greatest modern day pitching performance over a full year, let them speak now or forever hold their tongue. Pedro’s ERA was less than half of what the next best AL pitcher (Roger Clemens, 3.70) accomplished.

The last point I want to make is to remember the era in which Pedro Martinez excelled. The late 90’s and early 00’s saw an emphasis on offensive-minded, “Billy Beane”-style of play.

Run scoring was at an all-time high since the days of Lou Gehrig and the steroid era was bearing the fruit of multiple 50 home run seasons. ERAs were bloated and the careers of many pitchers were cut short.

Through the offensive juggernaut days of 10 years ago, Pedro rose above and dominated baseball. He showed power, control and absolute mastery of the art of pitching.

He was the best of his generation, and we have seen none like him since, though I hope future generations of fans are so lucky.

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We should all be so lucky to make the league minimum. Before we go feeling sorry for the (relatively) underpaid workhorses of baseball, it helps to remember how much $400,000 is. That said, there are some players that represent the antithesis of the bloated big league albatross.

For the purposes of this article, I’m not considering first-year players. Many incredible players make a huge splash in their freshman campaigns. Their low pay in the first year is misleading, as just about everyone makes somewhere around $400k their first year. I wanted to focus on a starting nine that has put some work in and still doesn’t take home a heaping pile. Without further ado…

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I won’t lie—it’s a nice problem to have.

At a time of year when finding an outfielder, starting pitcher and rounding out the bullpen is at the fore of most teams’ minds, Boston is chiefly concerned with the dilemma of what order to bat our All-Stars.

Oh, the bullpen isn’t a given, and there’s the matter of Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie at short. But recent additions Dan Wheeler and Bobby Jenks would seem to have stocked and solidified a middle relief that was plainly awful last year.

Meanwhile, Terry Francona would be smart to keep the overqualified Scutaro as a super utility man and give the starting job to Lowrie, a young but polished player who has shown patience and power at every level of competitive baseball.

So without further ado, here’s my take on the Red Sox 2011 lineup:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
2. Dustin Pedroia (2B)
3. Carl Crawford (LF)
4. Adrian Gonzalez (1B)
5. Kevin Youkilis (3B)
6. David Ortiz (DH)
7. Jed Lowrie (SS)
8. J.D. Drew (RF)
9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia/Jason Varitek (C)

Whoa, whoa, whoa! Take it easy! Yes, Youk would hit fifth. Yes, Lowrie would in front of the veteran ground-out wonder J.D. Drew.

Why? Let me explain.

1) Jacoby leads off

Big stretch there. I’d heard some speculation about him batting ninth in some versions of this fantasy lineup. It’s not a bad idea, but I feel extremely reluctant to take away so many ABs over the course of the year.

If you figure the ninth man gets three or four fewer ABs than the leadoff man per week, that’s 80 to 110 fewer plate appearances in a season. In his last healthy season, Ellsbury stole one base for every nine ABs, so hitting last could easily take away 10-plus SBs per year. He doesn’t have the patience or power to man a spot in the middle of the lineup, so leadoff it is.

2) Dustin’s the No. 2 man

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Assuming a clean bill of health, I expect Pedroia to return to form in 2011. A career OPS of .867 out of the second slot speaks for itself.

I wouldn’t dream of getting cute and putting him fourth or fifth either. A high contact/low strikeout hitter is exactly what you want to complement speedsters at the top of the lineup.

3) CC in the three-hole

Here’s where it may get a bit sticky for some readers. Crawford is not an exemplar of the classic No. 3 hitter—never had a 20-homer season, not a mind-blowing OBP.

However, my reasons for keeping him high in the order are the same as Ellsbury. I don’t want to take away SB opportunities from him, and his strikeout rate (which is a bit high for a speedster) will not hurt as much as it would out of the leadoff spot or hitting behind Ellsbury. Keep in mind his .890 OPS out of the third spot last year in Tampa.

As well, with Pedroia in hitting front and A-Gon fourth, Carl will FEAST on fastballs.

4) A-Gon cleans house

What can I say? You don’t pay a guy $22 million per year (we assume) to hit sac flies. This guy will have the most raw power on the team, has an incredible batting eye and fears no left-hander (his numbers are actually better against southpaws). With the three studs hitting in front of him…set ’em up, knock ’em down.

5) Pressure’s off, Youk

Youk has been (and still is) the most disciplined hitter on the team. I myself am not absolutely crazy about hitting him fifth with his skill set. But he will experience a re-learning curve to shift over to 3B. I don’t think he’ll forget how to hit in the process; however, it will ease things by not also expecting him to be the run-producing machine in the three or four spots.

Additionally, Youk has average speed but is lethal with men on base in the past few years (1.067 OPS). His presence will set the table for Papi, who historically is also much better with men on base.

6) Big Papi (see Youk)

7) Lowrie is Seventh Heaven

Jed Lowrie is a very good player. “Very good” describes just about every component of his game, even if “greatness” doesn’t. He is a prime specimen of Red Sox philosophy, particularly offensively.

It’s a bit silly to extrapolate his 2010 numbers over a full season, but I believe a .280/21/80 season is possible, with a high OBP. His switch-hitting checks the vulnerability of batting Ortiz and Drew back-to-back, both of whom are abysmal against lefties.

I think, more than anyone else in the lineup, Lowrie will surprise.

8) Eight’s Enough (for Drew)

Drew’s skills are slipping. He makes WAY too much. He’s gone after 2011. And…that’s fine. Expecting anything more than .260/18/70 out of this guy is optimistic now. But one thing he will do well until he’s old and gray is grind out ABs and draw a solid OBP. He represents, if nothing else, a bottom of the lineup slot that isn’t an automatic out.

9) Catch you at No. 9

This is a perfect place to groom a young catcher. If Salty does well, then so much the better for a very potent offense. If he fizzles, we have Tek, and we weren’t hitching our wagon either catcher anyway. If it is a weak point, it’s our pitchers that will suffer more, not our run-scoring. But that’s a conversation for another article.

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