Kuzul

On January 18, Ryan Madson woke up to some pretty good news.

No, he was not the recipient of a new contract.

No, his wife was not expecting another child.

And no, most certainly, the Phillies had already signed Cliff Lee back in December.

It was an important day for Madson, however, a day in which reliever Rafael Soriano finalized a three-year contract with the New York Yankees to set up future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera. A $35 million payout to Soriano certainly raised eyebrows around the league, and a whole lot of questions.

Why New York, when the Yankees already have an established closer that shows no signs of letting up any time soon? More important, why so much money?

We’ve been down this road before, with guys like Francisco Cordero, Brandon Lyon and Francisco Rodriguez in past years. This offseason, Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Scott Downs and others all set themselves up very nicely financially for the next few seasons.

It now begs the question: How much is someone like Madson worth, and will he be a Phillie in 2012?

First off, it’s important to note that the Phillies hold a team option in 2012 with current closer Brad Lidge, for approximately $12.5 million.

Should the Phillies decline that, they can work out a deal with Lidge at a lesser price or they can say goodbye to the man who helped deliver a World Series title in 2008 and turn over the closer role to Madson. It would be hard to see the Phillies keeping both men in the bullpen, primarily due to cost.

It would not be prudent for the Phillies to spend approximately $20 million per year on a pair of relievers, which is likely somewhere in the neighborhood of what it would cost to pay Lidge and Madson in 2012.

It is also important to note that Madson is the lone Scott Boras client on the Phillies’ roster. The Phillies were able to work out a three-year, $12 million contract with Madson and Boras prior to the 2009 season.

However, they have had trouble with Boras in the past. The J.D. Drew saga still haunts many Phillies fans to this day. Meanwhile, Jayson Werth hired Boras towards the end of the 2010 season and finds himself in Washington with a hefty payday. Not that anybody is blaming the Phillies for overpaying Werth, though.

Boras has done his job very well and though many don’t like him, he certainly has gotten the most for his clients, a list that includes Matt Holliday, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez.

Obviously, dealing with Madson will be a different animal altogether. Relievers are usually relatively unpredictable and only the best ones are rewarded with substantial contracts.

It’s safe to say that Madson is in line for one himself after posting a career-low 2.55 ERA last season. Since moving to the bullpen in 2007, Madson has pitched 269 innings, allowing just 242 hits and posting a 3.01 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

His K/9 ratio has increased each season since 2007 and was at 10.87 last year. That puts him in the discussion with guys like Benoit, Heath Bell and Brian Wilson.

The question remains, though, whether he will receive a contract like Benoit’s or Matt Thornton’s (who signed a two-year, $12 million deal with the White Sox on Sunday), or whether it will look something more like Soriano’s.

Teams seem to value closer experience, and Soriano’s 45 saves last season for Tampa Bay certainly earned him his extra loot. Indeed, Madson has been known to struggle in his career in save situations, but that is unlikely to scare many teams away.

Comparing Madson to Soriano is relevant in terms of trying to figure out what type of deal Madson might be in line for.

Since 2007, the same year Madson became a full-time reliever, Soriano has posted a .93 WHIP, far lower than Madson’s 1.20 during that same time.

If there is one thing Madson has going for him, it’s that he has been relatively healthy in the past few seasons. Despite his freak injury last season (a broken toe caused by kicking a chair after a game in San Francisco), Madson has been relatively healthy throughout the past four seasons.

Soriano and Benoit, meanwhile, have both dealt with shoulder issues. Soriano missed almost all of the 2008 season with elbow issues, and Benoit has had his fair share of injury issues throughout his career.

This much is known: The Phillies will need another big season out of Madson if they want to have success coming from their bullpen. What is not known is where Madson will be in 2012.

It is likely, though, looking at his recent performance and comparing him to other pitchers, that Madson will be worth $7 million-$9 million to some team. The Phillies, in a perfect world, would probably work out some sort of deal with Madson during the season, but the current situation would not make that feasible.

Boras has likely discussed with Madson a plan of attack, one that will include waiting to see whether or not Lidge will return to the Phillies in 2012.

For now, though, Madson will focus on trying to help the Phillies to another World Series in 2011.

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It’s been hard to read or hear anything about the Philadelphia Phillies this offseason without the words “Cliff Lee” or “four aces” or something of the sort attached to it. Oops, it looks like this isn’t helping.

There is plenty of excitement surrounding the Phillies’ star-studded pitching rotation, but the underwhelming offensive output in 2010 might concern some, at least a bit. Forget about the departure of Jayson Werth for a moment and realize that 2010 featured below-par offensive seasons from Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins.

There is a lot to prove in 2011, at least amongst the veteran core position players on this squad. Nobody will have more to prove than Rollins. It’s not his defense that anybody is worried about. Rollins posted a UZR/150 of 12.3 last season, which, had he qualified, would have been second in the major leagues. 

While he is still an elite defensive player, Rollins’ offensive numbers have declined in the past two seasons. In 2009, he put up an ugly .250/.296/.423 season in which he temporarily lost his lead off spot in the order. Now in the final year of his contract, Rollins has a lot to prove.

He will have to prove he can still hit, run and field with the best of them. You can probably check two of those three off the list, as J-Roll can still play his position well and can still swipe a bag. What Rollins will have to prove is that he can still be worth the salary he will make this season, which comes in at $8.5 million.

To be fair, the Phillies got more than they could have hoped for when they signed Rollins to a market-friendly five-year $40 million deal prior during the 2005 season. That deal included 2011’s club option at the aforementioned $8.5 million.

In all likelihood, Rollins does not have to prove anything to anyone else. He is the second-longest tenured athlete in Philadelphia, and after Sunday’s sub-par performance by Eagle David Akers, he could find himself as the longest-tenured athlete before too long.

Rollins isn’t going anywhere. He is a Phillie for life, and he has earned it. He has been good to the Phillies on and off the field, and he has developed a unique bond with manager Charlie Manuel over the years. While he may not be the player he once was, the alternatives are clearly much worse.

The Phillies have no immediate replacement for Rollins in the minor leagues, as their top shortstop prospect Freddy Galvis is still at least two years away from contributing anything to the major leagues. His defense also makes some of Hanley Ramirez’s worst defensive seasons look Gold-Glove worthy.

The question now becomes: Can Rollins stay healthy? If so, can he contribute? Rollins endured the toughest season (medically) of his career last year, which included two trips to the disabled list for his injured right calf and another injury to his right hamstring that caused him to miss most of September.

When he was healthy, he hit a pedestrian .243 with a .320 on-base percentage and a career-low .374 slugging percentage. The silver lining may be the fact that his right side simply bothered him all season long. The switch-hitting Rollins hit a hard-to-believe .218/.297/.360 vs. right-handed pitchers, but a respectable .297/.368/.405 versus left-handers.

It’s entirely possible that Rollins just couldn’t drive the ball against his front foot from the left side last season. His low .246 BABIP might not have helped him either. If his luck improves, his numbers will likely improve as well.

By now, we know Rollins isn’t going to increase his walk rate substantially at this stage in his career, although last season’s was actually the highest of his career. He simply might just need his heath to get him going once more. At the age of 32, it would be hard to think of Rollins’ career as being near its end.

He’ll need his legs as well. He stole just 17 bases last season thanks to the injuries. As a team, the Phillies will need to run more, and Rollins is a big part of that.

Most importantly, the Phillies can ill-afford another offensive disappearing act in the postseason in 2011. The pitching will certainly help carry them, but the offense will have to do its part. The veterans have a lot to prove.

What does Rollins have to prove in 2011? We already know the Phillies will be the “team to beat.” Rollins doesn’t have to proclaim such anymore. He should start with being the shortstop to beat in 2011.

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Before the times of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Roy Oswalt, there used to be an ace in Philadelphia that went by the name of Cole Hamels.

After the 2008 season, World Series MVP trophy and championship ring in tow, Hamels signed a three-year, $20.5 million extension with the Philadelphia Phillies that would keep him in red pinstripes through 2011.

A couple of years and three aces later, Hamels now finds himself set to begin the 2011 season as the fourth best starter on a loaded pitching staff that is expected to catapult the team into an automatic spot in the World Series.

Alright, it’s not that easy. What also won’t be easy will be re-signing Hamels to another new contract sometime soon that will keep him with the Phillies for the foreseeable future.

After the 2008 season, with Hamels set to go to arbitration, the Phillies structured a new contract that worked for both sides. The three-year deal did not touch his final year of arbitration or any of his free agent years. The deal was unique, however, in the sense that it provided Hamels with the biggest AAV (average annual value) ever on a multi-year deal for a pitcher in his first year of arbitration. 

Now the Phillies will have to work something out all over again, or take Hamels to arbitration after next season. It’s likely not something they want to have to do, but it is certainly possible. He can become a free agent after the 2012 season.

General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. has locked key pieces in, including Lee, Halladay, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley, through at least 2013. Besides Hamels, Amaro will have to make crucial decisions on numerous other players.

Jimmy Rollins is slated to be a free agent after next season. Brad Lidge has a hefty club option lined up for 2012, but the Phillies could buy him out after 2011 for just $1.5 million, which seems likely. Ryan Madson, who could be in line to close in 2012, is a free agent after 2011. Raul Ibanez will also become a free agent after 2011, but that won’t be as tough a decision as the others.

There is no question the Phillies will have money to play with, but they’ll have to use it wisely. Regarding the rotation, Halladay is signed through 2013 with a club option for 2014. Lee, with his new contract, will be here through 2015, potentially 2016, if his option vests.

Oswalt will make $16 million in 2011. The Phillies hold a club option for 2012 at the same number, but can buy Oswalt out for $2 million. Right now, it would seem like a relatively safe bet that the Phillies would do such a thing, leaving Hamels as the only truly undecided member of the 2012 rotation.

Hamels will make $9.5 million in 2011, a far cry from any of the numbers Lee, Halladay, or Oswalt will rake in. It’s pretty safe to assume that had Hamels been on the open market this offseason, he could have gotten a deal very similar to Lee’s, maybe for slightly less on the dollar side.

The Phillies’ philosophy since Pat Gillick joined the organization has been to go no longer than three guaranteed years on a contract with a starting pitcher. They have, for the most part, held to that. Lee was a special case that required the Phillies to open up the checkbook for a deal longer than they might have completed in the past. It did show a bit of a change in philosophy, but it was a special occasion.

Could Hamels be another special occasion? While many players have lauded Philadelphia as a great place to play, and Hamels has embraced the area, he’s going to be looking for money. The Phillies can’t expect to be able to go short-term with Hamels.

After a disappointing 2009, Hamels rebounded nicely in 2010. It wasn’t really a surprise. He threw a lot of innings in 2008, and ran into some bad luck in 2009. It was a bad combination for him to succeed. Last year was different, as Hamels posted a 3.06 ERA. The 12-11 record can be discarded; he received some of the worst run support in the league.

The Phillies will have to decide how to fit Hamels in to the future. It’s likely that a five-year contract could be offered. Three probably won’t be enough to keep him here. There is also no way the Phillies will get close to the same AAV that they got on Hamels’ original extension.

A three-year deal for Hamels in today’s market would, conservatively, cost the Phillies somewhere around $50-52 million. If I were Ruben Amaro, I would offer Hamels a new contract sometime next season, and structure it like so:

2012: $15 million

2013: $16.5 million

2014: $17 million

2015: $17.5 million

2016: $18 million

There, of course, would be various add-ons like Cy Young finishes, All-Star appearances, and the like. But that would be the structure, and it would be fair for both sides. It’s a five-year, $84 million deal in total, without bonuses and such. Hamels would be 33 at the end of the deal.

That deal averages out to $16.8 million in AAV, which doesn’t quite put Hamels in the upper-echelon with guys such as C.C. Sabathia, Lee, and Halladay. Something like this might not even be enough to get it done, which is why the Phillies should communicate early and often with Hamels. The Phillies, realistically, should be willing to go up to about $90 million over five years with Hamels.

If talks break down, there is always the option of trading Hamels next off-season, or even in-season, for a package built around youth. That’s something that should be off in the distance, though. The Phillies need Hamels, and Hamels needs the Philllies.

All signs would point to Hamels sticking around for a long time to come. While the super-rotation may only be in action for one season, the true ace of the Phillies’ future is Hamels.

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The Houston Astros will limp into Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia tonight, 54-69 and with virtually no chance to make the playoffs. 

Since the team’s World Series appearance in 2005, there’s been a lot of limping finishes in Houston.

While the Philadelphia Phillies were in the process of reaching their first post-season in 14 years in 2007, the Astros were in the final stages of a search for a new general manager.

That new GM would be Ed Wade, who had spent eight years with the Phillies as general manager, from 1998 until his firing in 2005.

And while Wade is long gone from Philadelphia, he has played a critical role in the team’s success while not stepping foot inside a Phillies office.

After the conclusion of the 2007 season, with the Phillies still looking to build towards a championship, general manager Pat Gillick consummated a trade with Wade that brought closer Brad Lidge to Philadelphia.

Forty-eight saves and a championship later, you could say that the Phillies had their way with their former GM. After all, it only took outfielder Michael Bourn, the final piece remaining from the deal in Houston, to get Lidge.

If Wade came into town early on Sunday for his team’s series against the Phillies, he could have seen another one of his trades helping out his old team.

Roy Oswalt has been nothing short of spectacular thus far for the Phillies, going 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA in his five starts with the team. On Sunday, he dominated the Washington Nationals, pitching seven shutout innings in a 6-0 victory.

The Phillies got him from Wade for what largely amounted to a sack of baseballs, and that’s no disrespect towards gentlemanly left-hander J.A. Happ. But to be fair, the Phillies stole Oswalt from the Astros because they were willing to pay him.

And maybe that’s the silver lining here. Maybe Wade isn’t the guy who looks like the fool in all of this.

As fans, we do not know how much Wade has been hamstrung by team owner Drayton McLane, and what influence he has had in Wade’s decisions.

There could be plenty of wheelings and dealings behind the scene that have left Wade looking like the fall man.

Days after the Oswalt trade, the New York Yankees acquired Lance Berkman from Houston in what was again a salary dump, with minimal prospects going Houston’s way.

What is important here is that the Phillies seem to have a steady working relationship with Wade in Houston. There are probably conspiracy theorists out there wondering how the Phillies got Oswalt for the price they did.

Phillies fans know this pain. Wade dealt star pitcher Curt Schilling to the Diamondbacks in 2000, in a trade that hardly ever benefited the Phillies.

While he left to low approval ratings in Philadelphia, he certainly left the team in good shape for the future. It took plenty of tweaking here and there, moves that Wade seemed incapable of in his time with the team.

When Wade stares out onto the field in this series, he’ll watch Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley, all drafted when Wade was here. While scouting director Marti Wolever can certainly take a large part of the credit for drafting those players, Wade deserves it as well.

He also hired current manager Charlie Manuel before his exit, a move that fans didn’t take much liking to in Wade’s final year here in 2005. Since then, Manuel has become a sort of folk hero in the city of Philadelphia.

Now, with the Phillies fighting for another playoff berth, they’ve gotten help from Wade once more in the form of Oswalt. Along with Hamels and ace Roy Halladay, the Phillies are hoping those three lead them deep into the post-season.

They couldn’t have done it without Wade, who seems to be helping the Phillies more these days since he stopped collecting paychecks from them.

Give Wade credit. In many ways, he was able to help set the Phillies up for this magical run they have had in the past few seasons.

But as fans in Houston now know, many of his moves are perplexing. Don’t worry, Houston. Maybe some day he’ll help you out, even if he’s not getting paid to.

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Last Thursday night, in the midst of the Philadelphia Phillies’ comeback against Los Angeles Dodgers reliever Jonathan Broxton, Dodger manager Joe Torre came to the mound to speak with his closer.

Television cameras picked up what Torre was mouthing to Broxton. Simply put, Torre asked, “Do you trust your stuff?”

Minutes later, meltdown completed and Phillies victory in the bag, Broxton sulked from the mound. The Dodgers had just lost a seven run lead with two innings to play.

Unfortunately, it’s a feeling that fans of many teams go through during a season. When the man known as the “closer” doesn’t close, it’s ugly.

It’s a feeling many Phillies fans have experienced over the past two seasons with Brad Lidge.

Often times, there have probably been people yelling at their own television sets to Lidge, screaming, along with a few obscenities mixed in, “Do you trust your stuff?”

For Lidge, 2009 was an unmitigated disaster. Mark McGwire would be proud to know we won’t be talking about the past in this article.

This is about the present, and the final month and a half of the 2010 baseball season.

While the Phillies will likely get Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back in the lineup this week, and while quality starting pitching is paramount, many teams only go as far as their bullpen allows. The Phillies experienced that first hand in 2008 when Lidge delivered perfection, 48 saves in 48 opportunities including the postseason.

Since then, things for Lidge have not gone as smoothly. As recently as two weeks ago, plenty questioned Phillies manager Charlie Manuel’s decision to continue trotting Lidge out there in save situations.

On July 31, Lidge allowed a three-run walk off home run to Ryan Zimmerman as the Nationals stole a 7-5 victory from the Phillies. Suffice to say, that sinking Groundhog Day feeling was there again.

These days, with all the advancements in baseball statistics and data tracking, few things are more impressive than the PitchFX tool available on numerous websites. A few clicks here and there and you’ve got yourself a bunch of data about what a pitcher threw, where he threw it, what kind of break the pitch had, and so on.

A look at the chart from that fateful night in Washington D.C. paints a sad picture for Lidge, pitches scattered every which way around the strike zone. The end result looks like target practice if you gave someone a gun for the first time and then blindfolded them.

That night finished off an ugly July for Lidge, one in which he blew two saves, posted an ERA of 6.00, and walked ten while striking out ten. It also finished off a July in which Lidge threw 89 fastballs and 87 sliders. 

Everyone knows the slider is Lidge’s best pitch. When Lidge is on, it’s usually because his slider is on.

August has been a different story for Lidge.

Thus far, in his seven August appearances, Lidge has thrown the slider 55 times and the fastball 27 times, an astounding 67.1 percent of his deliveries resulting in his nasty breaking ball.

In his August 11 appearance against the Dodgers, which looked like Lidge’s best outing of the year, he threw eleven pitches. Nine of them were sliders. The end result was an easy-as-pie 9th inning and Lidge’s 15th save of the season. He has since added one more.

In August alone, Lidge has struck out seven and walked none, racking up six saves.

Does Lidge’s performance hinge on the success of the slider?

Last year, Lidge’s worst season of his career, he threw the fastball just over 50 percent of the time. In 2008’s perfect season, it was just 43.4 percent of the time. This year, he has thrown the fastball 41.6 percent of the time, which would be the lowest mark of his career if it holds through the end of the year. 

As Lidge gets older, he must also become wiser. He does not have the same velocity he used to have on his fastball. Indeed, the numbers show he has averaged 92.2 MPH on his fastball this season, down from an average of 95.4 MPH just three seasons ago.

Through natural wear and tear, a few nicks here and there, and age, he just can’t get the fastball to the same velocity as he used to.

However, the slider is Lidge’s great equalizer. He is still an above-average strikeout pitcher, posting an 11.2 K/9 rate this season. Control has been a problem for Lidge. Maybe it was all in the over-use of the fastball which he had trouble locating. 

Now, as the pennant race heats up, the Phillies must hope that Lidge can deliver down the stretch.

It’s not 2008.

He won’t be perfect this year.

However, a large part of the Phillies’ success in September (and hopefully October) hinges on their closer.

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