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Dodgers’ Hyped Rookie Corey Seager Is Even Better Than Advertised

It can be dangerous to buy into the hype whenever a top baseball prospect begins his major league journey. There’s a long list of examples to vouch for how potential doesn’t always pan out.

And then there are guys like Corey Seager.

The hype surrounding Seager coming into the year seemed almost impossible to live up to. The young Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop had grabbed everyone’s attention with an enticing breakthrough in 2015, hitting .337 in the season’s final month. That attention was solidified when all the big publications rated him as the No. 1 prospect for the 2016 season.

Last month, Seager was an easy choice for the National League All-Star team. And now it says a lot that we’re not even talking about the 22-year-old as the front-runner for National League Rookie of the Year. Barring injury, that award is his for the taking.

Rather, the conversation has shifted to Seager’s place in the NL MVP race. Mike Petriello of MLB.com put Seager’s candidacy on the table last week, and his case is legit. The wins above replacement leaderboards at Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs don’t dispute the notion Seager is one of the NL’s very best players.

This is happening largely because of Seager’s bat. He’s hitting .302 with a .357 OBP and an .889 OPS. Fellow rookie shortstop Aledmys Diaz has a higher OPS, but the cavernous dimensions of Dodger Stadium allow Seager to lead all shortstops, rookie or otherwise, in adjusted offense.

Of course, Seager being a .300 hitter is a case of his living up to expectations rather than a case of exceeding them. His .337 average in the majors last year was preceded by a .307 average in the minors, and all the gurus had nothing but praise for the skills that made these numbers possible.

For example, Keith Law of ESPN.com touted Seager’s approach as the reason why he was baseball’s top prospect. Christopher Crawford of Baseball Prospectus preferred to drool over Seager’s swing, which he saw as one “that you can watch over and over again without ever getting tired of the repetition.”

The surprising part of Seager’s superstar emergence is his power. He came into the year having never hit more than 20 home runs in any professional season. In Monday’s 9-4 win over the Philadelphia Phillies, he clubbed his 20th and 21st dingers of 2016.

Seager likely doesn’t have enough power to surpass Mike Piazza’s Dodgers rookie record of 35 home runs. But with a little under two months to go, he could definitely get to 30. Pretty good for a guy Baseball America claimed would hit around 25 home runs once he reached his prime.

Where’s the extra power coming from?

“I never really hit this many,” Seager told Doug Padilla of ESPN.com. “It’s probably one of those things that who knows what this is. It’s happening.”

What’s clear, though, is that Seager isn’t selling out for power. He entered Monday with a 1.5 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio. Most true power hitters keep their marks under 1.0. 

Seager is letting his power come more naturally. He may not put the ball in the air often, but he doesn’t hit cans of corn when he does. Even before he mashed his latest dingers, he was averaging 95.2 miles per hour on his fly balls and line drives, according to Baseball Savant. That was ahead of fellow rookie slugger Trevor Story and just a few ticks shy of guys like Chris Davis and Kris Bryant.

This is not the only area where Seager has been a pleasant surprise. As much as everyone was praising his bat coming into the year, “meh” was the general opinion on his defense.

“Seager has the hands for short but not the speed or agility, while his arm would play anywhere on the diamond,” wrote Law, “making a move to third base…[is] the most probable long-term outcome.”

This could still be true, but the defensive metrics say there’s no hurry. Defensive runs saved claims Seager’s defense at shortstop has saved four runs. According to ultimate zone rating, it’s more like 7.7. If it’s the latter that has the right idea, Seager is safe among the league’s top 10 defensive shortstops.

This makes him come off like a guy who carries a chip on his shoulder. That may be because he does.

“Since the day I signed I was told I would [have to] move to third base,” Seager told Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports over the All-Star break. “… Nobody had seen you play, and you’re already getting written off.”

What’s more, Seager has been at his best at a time when the Dodgers have needed it most.

A back injury has rendered staff ace Clayton Kershaw, he of the three Cy Youngs and one MVP, unable to pitch since June 26. It was easy to predict the Dodgers’ demise at the time, but Seager is one of the forces staving it off. All he’s done since Kershaw’s injury is hit .311 with a .900 OPS, helping to lead the Dodgers to a 22-13 record. Their deficit in the NL West is just one game.

For now, Seager isn’t the no-brainer in the NL MVP race he is in the NL Rookie of the Year race. It’s a crowded field, and he faces stiff competition from guys like Bryant and Daniel Murphy. If the Colorado Rockies get hot again, National League home run and RBI leader Nolan Arenado could crash the party.

The fact Seager is even a part of this discussion, however, is as fitting as any statement one could make about his rookie season. In the face of overwhelming expectations, he’s managed to overwhelm expectations.

 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. 

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Tim Lincecum’s Latest Flop Is End of Once-Great Starting Career

It’s finally time to admit something that’s been increasingly apparent for five seasons now: Tim Lincecum is done as a major league starting pitcher.

For now, it sure seems like he’s started his last game for the Los Angeles Angels. Three months and nine starts after they took a flier on the two-time Cy Young winner with a pro-rated $2.5 million contract, the Angels aborted the Lincecum experiment Saturday afternoon:

The move takes the former San Francisco Giants ace off the Angels’ 40-man roster. There’s a possibility he’ll be traded, but the signs point to Lincecum clearing waivers and getting a choice between his release and a trip to the minor leagues. The Angels are hopeful for the latter.

“In order to get Tim to be that finished product of where we feel he can come up here and be a winning pitcher in the major leagues, it’s going to take some work,” said manager Mike Scioscia, per Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. “We hope he’ll go to Triple-A and work on it and see how it progresses.”

However, it’ll take more than just some work to get Lincecum, 32, to where he needs to be. What he needs is more like a miracle.

Lincecum’s tenure with the Angels got off to a promising start, as he debuted with six one-run innings back on June 18. But the good vibes fell apart in his next outing, and a stinker against the Seattle Mariners on Friday was the last straw. When Lincecum was done giving up six runs in 3.1 innings, his ERA had risen to 9.16.

There’s no blaming bad luck for that ugly figure. In 38.1 innings, Lincecum balanced out 23 walks with only 32 strikeouts. He also surrendered 11 home runs. FanGraphs classified 41.3 percent of the balls hit off him as hard hit. He basically allowed the average batter to hit like Giancarlo Stanton.

So it goes for the artist formerly known as The Freak.

Lincecum’s career took a hard turn when he posted a 5.18 ERA in 2012, and what’s happened this year is just the latest in a series of failed course corrections. He’s put up a 4.94 ERA in his last 122 appearances and, per Baseball-Reference.com, accumulated minus-4.2 wins above replacement. By that measure, he’s been baseball’s least valuable pitcher.

Lincecum’s “decline,” if you can even call it that, was preceded by a sparkling 2.74 ERA in 2011. That was the latest in a four-year stretch of success that included National League Cy Youngs in 2008 and 2009, earning him a solid spot among the top five pitchers in the sport.

But by now, it’s no secret what’s at the heart of Lincecum’s downfall. He lost two miles per hour in average fastball velocity from 2011 to 2012, and the trend continued downward in 2013, 2014 and 2015. This eradicated Lincecum’s margin for error and turned him into a nibbler.

The one silver lining of his 2016 season is he did gain back some velocity. He went from an average of 87.2 mph in 2015 to an average of 87.7 this year.

A fastball like that still isn’t going to cut it without pinpoint control, however, and Lincecum’s has remained anything but pinpoint. During his peak, he walked 3.2 batters per nine innings. He’s averaged 4.0 walks per nine since then, peaking at 5.4 per nine this year.

If the Angels really are hoping Lincecum will go down to Triple-A and figure out how to be a competent starting pitcher again, they’re kidding themselves. For that to happen, he either needs more velocity or better control. Five years’ worth of data says not to count on it.

Rather, the best hope for Lincecum is one Mike Axisa of CBS Sports highlights: “I imagine a club will be willing to try Lincecum as a reliever at some point, hoping he could regain some effectiveness while pitching in short bursts and only having to go through the lineup one time.”

This idea has been on the table ever since Lincecum dazzled in a few relief appearances in the 2012 postseason. It is still appealing to some degree. He probably doesn’t have any more mid-90s fastballs in him, but a relief role might allow him to at least touch 90 consistently. 

It’s doubtful any team would hand Lincecum a relief role, though. Be it this year or next year, whatever chance he finds will likely come in the form of a minor league contract.

It’s a good question whether Lincecum would even be interested in such a role. It’s a route he could have pursued as he was working his way back from offseason hip surgery this year, but he was adamant about latching on to a team as a starter.

“I know I’ve been working my butt off with pitch counts, working off that five-day rotation to try to elongate myself as a pitcher and as a starter,” he said after a May showcase (via Chris Cole of USA Today).

Plus, it’s not like Lincecum needs the work. He’s raked in nearly $100 million in his major league career. That’s enough to get through life.

If this proves to be the end, there’s more than just money to vouch for Lincecum’s career. He’s one of 17 pitchers who have won multiple Cy Youngs. He’s also one of only 34 pitchers to toss multiple no-hitters, accomplishing that in 2013 and 2014. There’s also no forgetting the fact he owns one of the best postseason pitching performances in history. Or his three World Series rings, for that matter.

That’s a lot of good memories for a career that’s spanned only 10 seasons. If this is the end for Lincecum, he has nothing to be ashamed of.

      

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Playing ‘Contender or Pretender’ for MLB Playoff Race with 2 Months Left

Now that the trade deadline and its accompanying madness have come and gone, it’s time for Major League Baseball’s stretch run to whittle its playoff races down to 10 final teams.

Time will be the final judge on that. But since time takes, well, time, let’s entertain ourselves by calling the shots.

Ahead is a look at 11 teams that are technically in contention, but we’ll sort each into one of two categories: contenders and pretenders. We’ll be looking at teams’ current standings, as well as overall performance, recent performance and what they’re working with heading into the final two months.

The list could be longer, but we’re excluding teams that are obvious contenders with big division leads and/or huge playoff odds at Baseball Prospectus, as well as teams (i.e. the New York Yankees) that have put up a white flag.

For the 11 teams that did make the cut, we’ll go in order from worst record to best record.

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Edwin Encarnacion Positioning Himself as the Prize Slugger of the MLB Offseason

If you’re a fan of star-studded Major League Baseball free-agent classes, I come bearing bad news. There’s not going to be one this winter. Sorry.

But hey, at least Edwin Encarnacion will be out there. That’s something. A big something, even.

The Toronto Blue Jays slugger is one of those guys who’s easy to lose sight of, but he’s also someone you just know is probably doing his thing at any given moment. Sure enough, doing his thing is how he contributed to a 4-1 victory over the Houston Astros on Thursday. In the ninth inning, he clocked the ball over the left field fence and rounded the bases with his right arm cocked out:

Encarnacion’s latest long ball was his 30th of 2016. The 33-year-old has now topped 30 dingers in each of the last five seasons, which rearranges the list of all the players who have done so to look like this:

  • Edwin Encarnacion

Yup. That’s it. Just him.

Encarnacion also boasts a .902 OPS, putting him on track to make it five straight seasons with an OPS that begins with a nine. He has some company in that club, but it’s only one kinda-sorta-very important guy: Mike Trout.

For at least the next two months, the Blue Jays can take facts and figures like these as a reminder that they’re lucky to have Encarnacion. He wasn’t considered a top asset when he first came to town in 2009. Then came some of the best power in the game, which hasn’t regressed as he’s gotten older. Before long, it could help the Blue Jays win a second straight American League East title.

But after the next couple of months pass into legend, Encarnacion’s power will be available to the highest bidder.

The Blue Jays signed Encarnacion to one extension when they locked him up on a three-year, $29 million deal back in 2012. That’s turned out to be a severe underpay, so it’s no wonder he isn’t looking to settle for less than market value as he heads toward free agency.

Back in April, this was the situation, as told by Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports:

Odds are Toronto’s next offer to Encarnacion will only be the qualifying offer. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported it will be worth $16.7 million this winter, per sources. That’s a lot of money, but Encarnacion would surely turn it down and risk going out into the open market with draft-pick compensation hanging over his head.

There’s a sliver of a chance of that strategy backfiring. If there’s anything the free-agent market is as wary or more wary of than players tied to draft-pick compensation, it’s older players. With his age-34 season due up in 2017, Encarnacion will fit both descriptions.

He’s also not without his flaws. He can hold his own at first base, but the best role for him will be as a full-time designated hitter. And with his previously excellent contact habit now merely average, at least one age-related crack is starting to show at the plate.

However, Encarnacion has two precedents from 2014 to turn to for hope. Nelson Cruz came off his age-33 season and got four years and $57 million from the Seattle Mariners, and Victor Martinez came off his age-35 season and got four years and $68 million from the Detroit Tigers. Good money for two older, bat-only players.

If there’s a handicap Encarnacion will face that neither of those two had to, it’s that the state of offense in MLB has changed dramatically. When Cruz and Martinez were free agents, the league was coming off a season when the average slugging percentage was .386. That number has skyrocketed to .417 in 2016, thanks to a barrage of dingers that has people talking about juiced balls and juiced players.

But teams are always going to need power. And this winter, the power market won’t have anyone who can measure up to Encarnacion.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports wrote in May that this winter will feature the worst free-agent class in decades. Part of the raw deal is a shortage of good power bats. The other big ones outside of Encarnacion will belong to fellow (for now) Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo and, in all likelihood, Yoenis Cespedes. All three can match Encarnacion in raw power but not in consistency.

Even if his market is limited to American League clubs searching for a first base/DH type, it’s already apparent he could have one interested suitor in Boston. The Red Sox are due to say goodbye to longtime DH David Ortiz, and he knows who he wants to take up his mantle.

“The Red Sox know that they need to reinforce the middle of the lineup,” Ortiz said over the All-Star break, per Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. “And sorry, Blue Jays, but who better than Encarnacion to do that?”

Then, Ortiz’s comments prompted MLB to open a tampering investigation. This offseason, the team could have president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and other Red Sox executives nodding in agreement. Encarnacion would indeed help the Red Sox replace Big Papi’s lost production. And as Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe noted, Red Sox skipper John Farrell and coaches Torey Lovullo and Brian Butterfield are all former Blue Jays who are fans of Encarnacion.

Apart from the Red Sox, other clubs that could be on the lookout for a power-hitting first base/DH type this winter are the Houston Astros, Texas Rangers and New York Yankees. If a couple of National League clubs are willing to roll the dice on him as a first baseman, his market will be robust.

It then wouldn’t be surprising if Encarnacion not only matches Cruz’s or Martinez’s deal but also beats either one. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors floated a possible four-year contract worth $20 million or more per year.

That would be a lot of money. But then again, Encarnacion hits a lot of dingers.

      

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Follow zachrymer on Twitter 

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Time for Justin Turner to Be Taken Seriously as Dodgers Star

It’s not easy to take Justin Turner seriously as a star player. He used to be an anonymous New York Mets utility guy. He’s now a Los Angeles Dodger not named Clayton Kershaw, Adrian Gonzalez or Corey Seager. I won’t say he doesn’t have the “good face,” but it’s confirmed he looks like a Muppet.

But I will propose this: Turner is not only a really good player, but an elite one when he has his legs under him.

It feels necessary to bring this up in part because of how insanely hot the 31-year-old third baseman has been. He was sporting a .642 OPS as recently as June 3. The next day, a two-hit game catapulted him to the following numbers over his last 48 games: a .321/.370/.642 slash line with 15 home runs.

It also feels necessary because of the recent buzz in the air about the Dodgers possibly making a seismic shift at the hot corner. Although it was really only a suggestion, Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com raised some eyebrows when he linked the Dodgers to Tampa Bay Rays star Evan Longoria last month.

Obviously, nothing materialized. Longoria is still safe and sound in Tampa Bay, and Turner is still wearing Dodger blue.

But since that “rumor” is nothing if not a good conversation starter, let’s have this one: Would the Dodgers actually have upgraded if they’d gone from Turner to Longoria?

By FanGraphs reckoning, Longoria has only been worth 0.5 more wins above replacement than Turner in 2016. That’s partially owed to a small difference in their offensive performances. Per weighted runs created plus, a metric that rates hitting production on a scale where 100 is league average, Longoria (128) has been only three percentage points better than Turner (125).

Look beyond just 2016, however, and it’s no contest. Here’s how wRC+ ranks the top offensive third basemen in the league over the last three seasons:

  1. Josh Donaldson: 146
  2. Justin Turner: 140

Ranking just behind Donaldson, who is at least 20 different shades of stupendous, in anything is a heck of an accomplishment. The heck of it is that Turner’s 2014-2016 offensive output might rank ahead of Donaldson’s had it not been for the injury bug.

It seemed like a fluke when Turner broke through with a .340 average and .897 OPS in 109 games in 2014 after the Dodgers picked him up off the scrapheap that winter. However, he hit .323 with a .950 OPS in his first 87 games in 2015, putting any “fluke” reasoning on thin ice.

But then he developed an infection in his leg last July that sidelined him into mid-August. He wasn’t the same after he returned, hitting just .237 with a .691 OPS. He would later have microfracture knee surgery in the fall. In June, Doug Padilla of ESPN.com observed that surgery “looks to have taken a toll on him” as he struggled out of the gate.

But as his red-hot hitting suggests, Turner has since snapped out of it.

“I’m definitely feeling comfortable again,” Turner told Padilla in July. “I felt comfortable all year. I don’t know what was going on those first two months. But yeah, I feel good, I feel comfortable, and I’m getting better results.”

It’s fair to say the Dodgers have experienced two different versions of Turner: the unhealthy one and the healthy one. Focus on what the healthy one has done in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and the numbers are staggering:

Anybody who can put up a wRC+ in the high 150s or high 160s isn’t just a really good hitter. That’s territory that only Mike Trout has consistently occupied over the last three years, and that only a handful of heavy hitters—Trout, Donaldson, David Ortiz, Jose Altuve, Daniel Murphy and Matt Carpenter—are occupying in 2016.

We had to jump through some hoops to put Turner in this kind of company, but the reality that it can be done speaks volumes about how far he’s come as a Dodger.

Turner was really only a glove-for-hire when the Dodgers picked him up on a minor league contract in 2014. He had played all over the infield in three seasons with the Mets but was just a .265/.326/.370 hitter with a 97 wRC+. In other words, below average.

But Turner has always had a good approach. He’s maintained a well-below-average strikeout rate while mostly keeping his walk rate in the realm of average. If a hitter can do that, all he needs to become complete is an ability to barrel the ball.

This is where Marlon Byrd emerges as a key figure in the Turner legend.

Turner crossed paths with Byrd when the two were with the Mets in 2013, the first season of Byrd’s late-career transformation into a power threat. One likely reason for that isn’t fun to think about, but it’s one of the other reasons that Turner latched on to.

“The old saying is ‘stay back stay back stay back.’ Well, [Byrd] was talking about doing the opposite,” Turner told Eno Sarris of FanGraphs last year. “Not backing the ball up, going out and getting it. Being aggressive and get out there and get on your front side, get off your back side.”

This advice opened the door for Turner to stop being content with making contact and instead prioritize making good contact. The new him showed signs of life in 2013, as he put more balls in the air and made more hard contact.

When he’s been on two good legs as a Dodger, he’s mostly continued to up the ante:

Going down this path could have wrecked Turner’s approach. Instead, it’s been like a rock. He’s still tough to strike out and is still taking his walks. Mix that with an increasing amount of solid contact, and it’s no surprise that health has been the only thing barring him from the hitting elite.

Because Turner is on the wrong side of 30, there should be some doubt about how much longer he can keep this up. It’s hard to argue with Tim Dierkes rankings for this winter’s top free agents at MLB Trade Rumors, in which Turner barely missed out on the top 10.

But right now, that’s neither here nor there for the Dodgers. Their hunt for an elusive World Series title got off to a rocky start, but their rebound to the tune of a 59-48 record has them breathing down the San Francisco Giants‘ necks in the National League West. Turner has had a big hand in this, as his hot hitting is in the middle of a team-wide offensive surge the last two months.

That’s what stars can do.

   

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked and are current through August 2.

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Red-Hot Tigers’ Assault on the AL Central Is the Real Deal

The AL Central race had been feeling like a foregone conclusion. The Cleveland Indians took hold of first place in early June and held a lead of at least five games every day between June 25 and July 26.

But now here to crash the proverbial party are the Detroit Tigers.

Faster than anyone could say “Maybe Detroit should sell at the trade deadline,” the Tigers have gotten hot. They swept back-to-back series against the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros, and made it seven wins in a row with an 11-5 trouncing of the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday.

Mark it eight, dude.

It was a battle, but the Tigers won again Wednesday night thanks to a friend they hadn’t seen in a while. On the first pitch in his first at-bat off the disabled list, J.D. Martinez cranked a long home run off Chris Sale to propel the Tigers to a 2-1 victory. Look upon it now with delight and wonder:

“That was almost like a movie tonight,” Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler told George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press. “That was special. That was something I probably never seen before.”

Coupled with Cleveland’s 13-5 loss to the Minnesota Twins, the Tigers are now only two games back in the AL Central. FanGraphs’ calculations still give the Indians a 71.2 percent chance of winning the division, but the conclusion is certainly no longer foregone. 

Such a thing is easy to say when you have a team that’s won eight in a row on one hand and a team that’s lost seven out of 11 on the other. But while the Indians are obviously good, they missed out on a huge missing piece at the trade deadline. The Tigers, meanwhile, are a team that’s never really been bad that appears to be coming together at the perfect time.

One thing the Tigers have had little trouble doing is hitting the ball. They entered Wednesday ranked in the top five in the American League in runs and OPS, and have been consistent on a month-to-month basis.

This is despite the fact they’ve just gone almost two months without Martinez in the lineup. With an .878 OPS and 12 home runs in 65 games before he broke his elbow in mid-June and an .890 OPS and 73 home runs since 2014, the hole he left was not a small one.

Having Martinez back for the stretch run could give the Tigers a stronger heart of the order than they had even when he was healthy. After a modest (by his standards) first half, Miguel Cabrera is back to doing Miguel Cabrera things in the second half. Justin Upton has finally come alive. Victor Martinez has been slumping, but his overall season is more than strong enough to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Having a core like that should ensure Detroit’s offense won’t get any worse in the final two months than it’s been all season. The Tigers would only need their pitching to show up, and it’s way ahead of schedule.

Among American League clubs, only the Tampa Bay Rays have come out of the All-Star break with a better ERA than the Tigers. Justin Verlander has been the prime catalyst behind that, claiming AL Pitcher of the Month for July with a 1.69 ERA in six starts.

“It just felt like I had a good month with good feel, just took the ball every time I was called upon and went out there and tried to keep our guys in the game,” Verlander told Jason Beck of MLB.com. “You look back at the body of work this month and yeah, it was pretty good.”

Verlander’s peaks and valleys over the last couple of seasons almost make it hard to believe he can continue this. The one thing he has now that he hasn’t had in a while, however, is velocity. As Brooks Baseball shows, his fastball is sitting around 95 miles per hour for the first time since 2014.

Michael Fulmer has also done his part. His 6.2 innings of one-run ball Wednesday night lowered his ERA to 2.42. That puts him in line to win AL Rookie of the Year, and it sounds like he’s going to get the chance to seal the deal. Per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, there’s no plan to shut the young right-hander down.

Rejoining Verlander and Fulmer in Detroit’s rotation Thursday will be Jordan Zimmermann. The veteran missed all of July with a bad neck. If he gets back to what he was doing earlier in the year, the front three in Detroit’s rotation will be able to take all comers.

That just leaves the Tigers’ eternally problematic bullpen. But as Matt Snyder noted at CBSSports.com, it was having a strong second half before hitting a rough patch Tuesday. It may be prepared to handle the task of not getting in the rest of the team’s way down the stretch.

This is not to say catching the Tribe will be easy. They’re still a really good team, and maybe the only team in the American League with enough pitching depth to overcome the absence of a Danny Salazar. The Tigers also won’t get a chance to make up ground directly until September, when seven of their last 16 games are against Cleveland. And despite their current hotness, their 1-11 record against the Indians doesn’t bode well.

The race, however, is most definitely on.

It took some time, but the Tigers are hitting their peak. With the Indians having possibly hit their own peak already, the state of things in the AL Central may be permanently stuck on “interesting” the rest of the way.

 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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1 Year Later, Pro Baseball’s 1st Openly Gay Player Still Leads by Example

Sean Conroy’s trip to the National Baseball Hall of Fame last November wasn’t his first. His hometown of Clifton Park is roughly 70 miles from Cooperstown, so he’d seen the exhibits about baseball’s immortals.

But it’s different when you go to gaze at your own.

There, in a case marked “Today’s Game,” just south of the hat Cole Hamels was wearing when he no-hit the Chicago Cubs, was the scorecard from the Sonoma Stompers’ June 25, 2015, game against the Vallejo Admirals. Conroy led the Stompers to a 7-0 victory with a complete-game shutout in his first professional start.

That’s a damn good debut, but it’s not what got him into the Hall of Fame. It’s who Conroy is that prompted the call. 

He became the first openly gay player in professional baseball history that day, as Major League Baseball historian John Thorn confirmed to Lisa Leff and Olga Rodriguez of the Associated Press. That’s the kind of occasion that is indeed worthy of Cooperstown.

“I had been a couple times as a kid, going with my family on trips or whatever,” says Conroy, 24. “But going back to see myself there was a completely different experience. It was definitely surreal. I’ll probably go back in the future. And it’s something I’ll be able to tell my kids about someday, which is pretty cool.”

The moment may have been surreal, but what happened last June was very real.

The Stompers are one of only four teams in the independent Pacific Association of Professional Baseball Clubs, where players make only a couple hundred bucks a month in a three-month season. But it’s still pro ball.

The precedents for Conroy’s experience aren’t encouraging. Glenn Burke and Billy Bean had unhappy and short-lived careers as major leaguers who were not out publicly. Jason Collins and Michael Sam were celebrated for coming out but then swiftly nudged aside. Before becoming the first openly gay player in Major League Soccer, Robbie Rogers’ coming out originally coincided with his retirement.

So far, though, Conroy’s story has been different. It’s already put him in the Hall of Fame, and it’s still offering a glimpse at a brighter, more inclusive future for professional baseball.


As recounted in Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller’s book about running the 2015 Stompers, The Only Rule Is It Has to Work, Conroy came out to his parents when he was a teenager. They were immediately accepting but also worried.

“I said, ‘I think you should kinda keep it in your back pocket until you get through high school,'” Conroy’s mother, Terry, told Lindbergh. “‘It’s just a better life, because I know what life was like when I was in high school.'”

But Conroy had a better idea. Rather than stay in hiding, he came right out to his high school teammates. Later, he would do the same in college at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

Described by those who know him well as “quiet” and “cerebral,” Conroy’s not the spokesperson type. He was fine with losing his Pride Night spotlight to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on same-sex marriage, saying in a TV interview that his preference is to be in the spotlight for baseball. And when I asked about the tragedy at Pulse nightclub in Orlando, he had nothing he wanted to share publicly.

But wisdom based on his own experiences for anyone who might need it? That’s ground he’ll tread.

“I think everyone’s experience is different. I could write a book on my own experience and how I got through what I went through,” he says. “But if I had any overarching advice, it would just be to be yourself. And I always made friends first and then continued to be myself after I came out to them. It’s like, ‘OK, I was friends with them before, and then I came out, and nothing’s changed.'”

Apart from one ugly moment—the book tells of a vanquished batter saying “I can’t believe that f—-t struck me out”—Conroy’s amateur career passed without incident. What there was instead was lots of dominance. Especially at RPI, where he went 21-7 with a 2.05 ERA in four seasons.

Trouble was, he didn’t fit the usual profile of a draftable pitcher: a tall drink of water with a fastball radar guns can’t ignore.

Conroy is a 6’1″ right-hander who works mostly from a sidearm angle with mid-80s velocity. Relying mainly on a sinker-slider combination, his game is more about deception. It’s not easy for young pitchers to impress affiliated clubs with such a scouting report, and dominance against Division III competition isn’t the thing to make them think otherwise.

But when Lindbergh and Miller sought to discover what two stats-minded writers could do running a professional team, they didn’t need future major leaguers. They just needed players who could cut it in the Pacific Association, where the competition is roughly equivalent to Single-A ball.

They commissioned Chris Long, a former San Diego Padres executive, to devise a system that rated all college players on the same scale. The resulting spreadsheets highlighted Conroy as a guy who could help. Lindbergh and Miller didn’t need to know much more than that.

“We didn’t know he was gay, for example,” Lindbergh says. “Our eyes were just caught by the stats and by the performance. And even though it was RPI, this little Division III engineering school in upstate New York, we just thought, ‘If you can pitch that well in college and you can get college hitters out that effectively, maybe you can do the same thing in the Pacific Association.'”

Conroy had another appealing quality. He was just three credits shy of a psychology degree and pursuing an interest in team chemistry with a paper titled “How Perception of Teammates’ Ability Affects Personal Ability.” 

“Most of the time, I’m just a fly on the wall. I’m not a guy who likes to talk too much,” he says. “I’m perceptive of the things around me, or at least I like to think I am. I just developed an interest in seeing how people interact with each other and then how they turn around and play after that.”

As Lindbergh saw it, Conroy’s talent and interest in reading the room while in the clubhouse could make him a “go-between” insider for him and Miller, two outsiders.

Little did they know he was also the perfect candidate for what came next.


Conroy’s first priority upon arriving in wine country was to nail down a job. That turned out to be simple. When then-player/manager Fehlandt Lentini asked his pitchers on Day 1 of spring training “Does anyone want to be a closer?” all Conroy had to do was volunteer.

Then it was on to the coming-out process. For that, he would follow his usual pattern: make friends first, and then let them in on it.

Some circumstances were in Conroy’s favor. He was on a team located in the Bay Area, a place he’s found has “definitely lived up to its reputation as being open-minded.” He was also on a team loaded with predominantly young and universally low-paid players. Any troublemakers could be easily cast aside.

Nonetheless, a standard-issue all-male clubhouse comes with natural barriers for gay athletes. 

As Outsports co-founder Cyd Zeigler outlined for Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune, one is “constant heterosexism” that makes sexual escapades with women a frequent topic of conversation. That presents a tough choice for gay men: don’t come out and carry the psychological burden of playing along—a game Bean talked about playing during his careeror come right out and be yourself.

This wasn’t a tough call for Conroy. 

“I told my teammates I was gay because as we were becoming friends, I didn’t want to feel like I was hiding or have to lie when they start to comment on girls,” he told Scott Gleeson of USA Today last summer. “If a teammate tells me about how he met a girl at a bar, I tell him about how I met this guy at a bar.”

A given clubhouse is also likely to feature some level of homophobia. An extreme case would be what drove young right-hander Tyler Dunnington away from the St. Louis Cardinals organization last year. He revealed to Outsports that he’d been worn down by “years of homophobia,” including “both coaches and players [making] remarks on killing gay people.”

On the other side of the spectrum would be a clubhouse like Sonoma’s. It’s characterized in the book as an example of what for now is still a fundamental truth: The more dudes you gather in one place, the probability of gay jokes happening approaches 1.

Isaac Wenrich, then a catcher for the Stompers, wasn’t one of the guys Conroy told directly, but it seems he heard the news after making such a joke.

“You know, I’d be in the locker room and talking and everything and joking around, and one of our pitchers was like, ‘Hey, man, you know Sean’s actually gay.’ And I was like, ‘I had no idea about that,'” Wenrich says. “I mean, it’s not derogatory or anything like that. It’s just that locker room banter.”

Wenrich’s reaction was to go right over to Conroy, who was “more than open” with him. Wenrich was cool with it on the spot. So was everyone else, by all accounts. Lindbergh says the team “didn’t really need to be corralled in any way.” 

Meanwhile, Conroy was commanding respect with his performance on the field, racking up four saves with no earned runs allowed in his first six appearances. He also commanded respect by taking all comers in Super Smash Bros., the Stompers’ video game of choice. And when he came out, he presented himself as, to use Wenrich’s words, a “genuine person.” 

“This was not new for him,” says Lindbergh. “It was new to do this in professional baseball but not new in that he had been open with his amateur teams before. He knew how to handle it, and he really didn’t need any hand-holding.”

If anything, Conroy’s teammates were initially too respectful. What Wenrich called “that locker room banter” disappeared, creating a situation Lindbergh described as uncomfortable for everyone: Players not named Conroy were policing themselves, and that made players named Conroy self-conscious.

But this didn’t last. Conroy couldn’t recall a specific turning point for what allowed everyone to loosen up. But he credits Wenrich, a close friend who would later share in his surreal Cooperstown visit, for “just being blunt with me and doing it in front of other people and seeing my reaction, which I was fine with.”

For Wenrich, the credit is mutual.

“We understood that, you know, maybe making a gay joke or two could be taken the wrong way. Sean never did. Sean was always so cool about it,” he says. “[We] sort of died down on the banter just for a little bit until we understood that Sean’s just a baseball player. He tells the same jokes. He has a sense of humor. I think that’s what gave us the ability to pick it back up and be as loose as we were.”

There’s a line between good-natured ribbing and hurtful insults. But rather than leave it up to him, Conroy has found his fellow players to be good at checking themselves. 

“I would do it if I had to,” he says, “but I haven’t had to yet.”


After Conroy came out to Stompers owner Eric Gullotta on June 10, there was an obvious opportunity to make the club’s annual Pride Night on June 25 an even bigger event. Attracting fans does take extra effort in the indy circuit, after all. That’s why teams do things like sign Jose Canseco.

But for the Stompers, this would be more than a publicity stunt.

Lindbergh, Miller, and Stompers general manager and self-described “owner of a real name” Theo Fightmaster badly wanted Conroy’s effective relief arm to be used in a starting role. They’d had trouble convincing Lentini, a traditionalist whose party line was “the closer is the closer,” to make the switch. But for Pride Night, he relented. 

“If we had sought Sean out because he was gay and then we made him start on a night like that in a pure stunt, it would have been pretty detrimental to not just Sean but I think the whole inclusion movement in baseball and professional sports,” Fightmaster says. “He had been on the team since spring training, and he had been a dominant reliever for us, and frankly we needed an excuse to get our manager to give him a few more innings.”

It was after the Stompers made the announcement that outrage finally surfaced, but it was minor. Apart from a few Stompers season ticket holders and host families who boycotted the game, Lindbergh wrote that the bad noise was mostly restricted to the usual safe space for outspoken tough guys: Facebook comment sections.

As for the game itself, it turned out to be an occasion befitting of Cooperstown.

In front of a crowd of 478—pretty good by usual standards at Sonoma’s Arnold Field—most Stompers players took the field wearing rainbow socks in solidarity with their starter. Conroy then held the Admirals to three hits, striking out 11 and walking one. It took 140 pitches, but what would have been a historic game either way turned into a tremendous personal success.

His first reward: the biggest hug of his catcher’s life.

“I mean, you can’t really put that moment into words, just how special it was for him as well as all of us,” says Wenrich. “To share the locker room with him is an incredible thing, but for me to walk out there and give I think the biggest hug I’ve ever given anybody, I just think it was such a cool moment.”

Conroy’s next reward: a chance to appeal to the masses.

There had been some media interest in Conroy’s Pride Night start beforehand, but it ballooned beyond just “some” afterward. That was partly due to how much his performance bolstered the story. Add in the Supreme Court’s same-sex marriage ruling the very next day, and Conroy’s story was folded into a larger conversation about LGBT rights.

“I remember the next day, I was just flooded with media requests,” says Tim Livingston, whose many hats include the Stompers’ play-by-play man and media coordinator. “And I was just sitting there on my couch that morning trying to go through them all before I went into the office. I was getting things from all across the country. A couple from overseas.”

True to form, Conroy said through a team statement (via Outsports) before Pride Night that his focus was on “leading by example.” He stayed on message after the game.

“It’s something that I’ve wanted to do for the last few years,” he said in an MLB Network interview, “playing through college ball [and] seeing it as an opportunity to really represent the cause and help young people in whatever way I can.”

When Conroy was asked about his teammates’ reactions, the question might as well have been prefaced with remarks from major leaguers—see Torii Hunter or Daniel Murphy—who’ve insinuated having an openly gay player in a clubhouse would be an issue.

Conroy isn’t sure about that.

“I’d have to assume that, even though there are so many differences at this levelpace of play, the amount of money we makeI have to assume that the environment in the clubhouse is pretty much the same,” he says. “You have so many different personalities, I think that if you do it in the right way that it would be completely acceptable in a major league clubhouse.”

He might be right. Eno Sarris of FanGraphs collected quotes from a handful of major leaguers last June that paint an optimistic picture of MLB‘s readiness for its first openly gay player. Bob Nightengale of USA Today painted a similar picture this spring.

This is all theory for now. But thanks to an assist from Conroy himself, it could soon become reality.

David Denson, a 21-year-old slugger with the Single-A Wisconsin Rattlers in the Milwaukee Brewers organization, became the first openly gay player in affiliated ball when he went public last August. If he winds up being MLB’s first openly gay player, one of the accomplishment’s roots will be a conversation with the trailblazer.

“He wanted to know personally if the media was going to be a distraction. So I had to tell him how I dealt with the interviews,” Conroy says of the talk he and Denson had last summer. “And he just wanted to make sure that I was being honest in my interviews, which I was. There was really nothing going on in the clubhouse. And he just wanted to make sure he was in the right place in his own life, so I talked him through that as well.”


A year later, the experiences that backed up Conroy’s advice to Denson are holding true.

The team itself isn’t the same. Following an offseason in which he was named the Pacific Association’s top relief pitcher and top defensive pitcher, Conroy was one of just a handful of 2015 Stompers to return for 2016. A largely different cast of teammates might have meant a less welcoming clubhouse.

Instead, it’s been more of the same. Conroy didn’t even feel the need to come out all over again. Some of the new guys already knew about him. Others found out as word permeated through the clubhouse. The general reaction: a shrug.

“I think it was more just gradually known,” says Stompers catcher Mason Morioka, whose locker is next to Conroy’s. “To me it’s definitely not a big deal. He’s my teammate. I’m going to treat him as a brother and definitely as an equal.”

The man himself hasn’t changed either. Conroy can still kick anyone’s ass at video games—Morioka says three guys against one Conroy in Super Smash Bros. is a surprisingly fair fight—and he still has the sense of humor that made a huge difference in keeping everyone loose in 2015. All told, what was an experiment last year has become status quo.

“I’ve heard absolutely not one whisper,” says Fightmaster. “And Sean will even be the guy who’s in the clubhouse during a meeting, and he’ll make sort of a self-effacing joke about himself. It’s taken well, and people laugh.”

What has changed in 2016 is Conroy’s role. He couldn’t hang on to a starting role even after his Pride Night shutout last June. This year, he opened the season on May 31 as the team’s No. 1 starter.

Conroy’s first start didn’t go so well, as he allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 3.1 innings. But he’s since pitched to a 4.09 ERA in 10 appearances, solid stuff in a league where the average ERA is 4.34. Mixed in is another dominant effort (eight innings, one run) on Pride Night on June 17. 

Conroy has now appeared in 33 total games as a professional. He’s posted a 3.96 ERA in 118.1 innings, allowing 105 hits with an 88-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It’s enough to justify Lindbergh and Miller’s notion that he had the goods to get professional hitters out.

“He throws from two different arm angles, and he throws a couple different pitches—fastball, slider, changeup—from his down-under arm angle and then fastball and curveball from his top arm angle,” says Morioka. “I think it’s hard for hitters to pick up on a certain arm angle when he keeps changing it up.”

Conroy’s weapons and numbers eventually putting him in the major leagues is a long shot. Lindbergh believes Conroy could succeed in affiliated ball, but he’s going to get his ticket only if a team believes he can one day rise to the majors.

“That’s the thing that’s going to hold him back,” says Lindbergh. “If a team thinks, ‘Well, he could pitch in A-ball, but he’s not going to get to the big leagues, he’s not going to get to Triple-A. Then why take up a roster spot with that guy?’ That’s gonna be the strike against him.”

Still, you never know. 

Lindbergh and Miller thought enough of Conroy in 2015 to reach out to the Oakland A’s, who sent a scout to see him. He also has the advantage of two things affiliated clubs don’t usually get when scouting indy league players: PITCHf/x data and video. Lindbergh and Miller wrote in the Wall Street Journal about how these things helped get Santos Saldivar signed by the Brewers this year. For a soft thrower like Conroy, such things could be even more instrumental in attracting affiliated attention.

And in 2016, the signings of not only Saldivar but also the Pacifics’ Max Beatty (Chicago White Sox) and the Admirals’ Tim Holmes (New York Yankees) prove major league front offices have their eyes on the Pacific Association.

“The league definitely seems to be on the map now in a way that it wasn’t even a year ago,” says Lindbergh.

Conroy will have options if baseball doesn’t work out. He finished at RPI over the winter, giving him a college degree to fall back on. And he doesn’t necessarily need to be a player to find a gig in The Show. Bean, who is now MLB’s first Ambassador for Inclusion, invited him to MLB’s Diversity Business Summit at Chase Field in March, where he had what he called an “umbrella interview” with the Baltimore Orioles that covered different internships in their front office. That’s not his first career choice, but he says he would “obviously jump at it” if an opportunity came along.

Otherwise, he could always try to make something of his gaming talent.

“You know what, I practice enough that I should,” he says with a laugh. “I’m just trying to have fun with my life, and behind baseball, video games is the thing I enjoy the most.”

But for now, there’s still baseball to be played. 

The Stompers have already expanded their inclusivity banner by signing and playing three women: two-way talents Kelsie Whitmore and Stacy Piagno and catcher Anna Kimbrell. They also earned a second straight first-half pennantTheir unfinished business now is winning the league championship. That’s also Conroy’s unfinished business, as he was on the mound when the Stompers fell short last August.

Even if Conroy’s baseball career doesn’t take him further up the ladder, his place in Cooperstown lore serves as a reminder that the door he opened will be hard to close. The example has been set. It’s already helped Denson come forward. Perhaps there will soon be more, and then that will be that.

“I’ve always assumed it would take the next generation of players to have more openly gay guys in the clubhouse,” he says. “Similar to what I did, where I was open throughout at least college and that’s just who you are and how you’re presenting yourself to the team.”

You wouldn’t need to travel far back in time to find a point when an influx of gay players in professional sports would have sounded like a fantasy. But the ripples of change are a start. And for the future, there’s hope in the fact that it’s not just the LGBT crowd that can learn from Conroy’s example.

“I think people need to understand that regardless of what you are or who you are,” says Wenrich, “you can still be an unbelievable athlete, and you can still perform on the field to where people take notice of your performance rather than whether you’re gay or straight.

“I think the biggest takeaway from it is just don’t judge the book by its cover. I think that’s what makes the sports world so great.” 

     

All quotes and information obtained firsthand except as noted. Stats courtesy of Pointstreak.

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Rangers Shake Up AL Pennant Chase with Carlos Beltran, Jonathan Lucroy Haul

Major League Baseball’s 2016 trade deadline passed with a veritable bang. Deals were being made left and right, and many included big names.

In no place, however, was the noise louder than in Texas.

The Texas Rangers approached the deadline sitting pretty with a six-game lead over the Houston Astros in the AL West. But rather than be content with a straight shot at a division title, they declared their lust for the franchise’s first World Series title with a pair of deadline deals:

  1. Acquired OF/DH Carlos Beltran from the New York Yankees for minor league RHPs Dillon Tate, Eric Swanson and Nick Green.
  2. Acquired C Jonathan Lucroy and RHP Jeremy Jeffress from the Milwaukee Brewers for minor league OF Lewis Brinson and RHP Luis Ortiz.

Before anyone asks, yes, the Lucroy trade is official. It’s natural to have doubts after he used his no-trade clause to nix a deal to the Cleveland Indians over the weekend, but the man himself announced he’s happy to be on his way to Arlington:

While we’re on the topic of doubts, it’s also fair to feel wary at the amount the Rangers gave up to do these deals. Tate has struggled in 2016, but he was Texas’ No. 4 pick in the 2015 draft. Brinson and Ortiz, meanwhile, were rated by MLB.com as the Rangers’ No. 2 and No. 3 prospects, respectively.

But in times like these, the words of MLB Network’s Tom Verducci (via Dan Kolko of MASN Sports) must be heeded: “The idea is to win the last game of the World Series, not to brag about your farm system.”

There’s no question the Rangers had a shot at winning the World Series even before their flurry of deadline activity. But there’s also no question said shot looks a lot better after the fact, in no small part because their lineup is legitimately formidable.

The Rangers entered Monday ranked third in the American League in runs scored, but only seventh in OPS. They’re not short on good hitters, but Ian Desmond was their only regular with an OPS over .800.

Not anymore.

Beltran joins the Rangers with an .890 OPS and 22 home runs. Lucroy comes with an .841 OPS and 13 home runs. What’s more, they fit into spots where the Rangers needed help the most:

For his part, Lucroy could also influence the Rangers’ run prevention. 

One thing Rangers catchers have struggled with in 2016 is framing strikes. StatCorner.com’s metrics claim Bobby Wilson, Robinson Chirinos, Bryan Holaday and Brett Nicholas have combined for minus-10.9 framing runs above average. Lucroy has resided on the opposite side of the spectrum, accounting for 5.5 framing runs.

Assuming he can carry that over, that’ll be a boost to a Rangers starting rotation that, led by Cy Young contender Cole Hamels and strikeout fiend Yu Darvish, is already fifth in the American League with a 4.15 ERA. Lucroy’s framing would also help the bullpen, of course. 

But not as much as the other guy the Rangers got from the Brewers.

Although Jeffress isn’t a big-name reliever, he’s done nothing but dominate since the Brewers picked him up off the scrapheap in 2014. In 158 outings with the Brewers, he put up a 2.38 ERA in 151.1 innings.

It’s not that Jeffress is unhittable. He’s averaged 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings in his career, which isn’t great in this time of high-octane relievers. The trade-off is that Jeffress is hard to hit well. His career ground-ball rate is 57.5 percent. And per Baseball Savant, his average exit velocity of 84.4 miles per hour is the lowest in MLB this season.

This makes Jeffress the second savvy relief pickup Rangers general manager Jon Daniels has made in less than a week. Lucas Harrell may have been the headliner in last week’s trade with the Atlanta Braves, but Dario Alvarez could prove to be the key piece. In light of his ability to miss bats, Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs sees Alvarez as a potential relief ace.

There should be better days ahead for a Rangers bullpen that’s struggled to the tune of a 4.78 ERA. With Jeffress and Alvarez joining Sam Dyson, Jake Diekman, Tony Barnette and Matt Bush, Texas skipper Jeff Banister has quite a few options to help shorten games.

How good are the Rangers now? According to Yahoo Sports writer/smart person Jeff Passan, arguably the best of all AL clubs:

Baseball’s great and all-powerful sphere of numbers isn’t too sure about that. Per Baseball Prospectus, the Rangers began the day with a 5.5 percent chance of winning the World Series. That’s compared to 17.9 percent for the Cleveland Indians, who’ve added the monstrous Andrew Miller to a pitching staff that was already loaded.

However, there’s no disputing the Rangers are indeed “damn good.” They now have a lineup that can hit (and field), and it’s backed by a quality starting rotation and a deeper bullpen. These things should make them a shoo-in to finish off their pursuit of a second straight AL West title. After that, they’ll be a good bet to play deep into October.

That didn’t go so well in 2010 and 2011. But in 2016, maybe the third time will be the charm.

 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. 

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Jonathan Lucroy Would Give Indians a Major Piece of Championship-Caliber Team

After more than half a century of nothing, the city of Cleveland is nearing a realistic chance of getting two championships in less than a year.

The Cavaliers got it done by winning the NBA Finals, and now the Indians mean business with their pursuit of their first World Series title since 1948. They already have a team good enough for the American League‘s top record, and now it’s circling a catcher who can actually do things.

As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports was first to report Saturday night, the Indians have an agreement in place to acquire two-time All-Star Jonathan Lucroy from the Milwaukee Brewers. It seems the only thing the deal needs to become official is Lucroy’s willingness to waive his no-trade clause.

Although Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports notes Lucroy has “no apparent reason” not to want to switch sides from a 46-56 Brewers team to a 59-42 Indians team, he does have a leverage play to make. He’s earning $4 million this season with a $5.25 million club option for 2017. He may need the Indians to sweeten the deal for him to say yes.

If the Indians do that, they’ll be out some money in addition to some pretty good prospects. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports young catcher Francisco Mejia is in the deal; according to Rosenthal, so are shortstop Yu-Cheng Chang and outfielder Greg Allen.

Chang and Allen both check in among Cleveland’s top 30 prospects at MLB.com. Mejia, meanwhile, looks like a rising star. He landed at No. 70 on Baseball America‘s most recent top 100, and that may underrate him. The 20-year-old is a switch-hitter who’s currently riding a 42-game hit streak that’s pushed his batting average in 77 games at Single-A and High-A to .344.

But on the bright side, here’s a list of prospects the Indians apparently aren’t giving up, complete with their Baseball America rank:

  • OF Clint Frazier (21)
  • OF Bradley Zimmer (26)
  • LHP Brady Aiken (59)
  • 1B Bobby Bradley (64)
  • LHP Justus Sheffield (69)

The Indians may not be about to rob the Brewers blind, but they’re not going to get looted, either. They would be keeping arguably all their best prospects and getting a guy who can help in return.

Actually, sorry. That should read “can really help.”

The Indians haven’t been hurting for offense this season, entering Saturday ranked sixth in the AL in OPS and fourth in runs. But their offensive attack has come to a screeching stop whenever the catcher is up. They began Saturday getting a .504 OPS from their catchers, the worst in baseball

To this end, trading for Lucroy is like a man on a deserted island being rescued by a luxury cruise ship. The 30-year-old is hitting an even .300 with an .844 OPS and 13 home runs, which is in line with what he was doing at the plate the prior three years.

In between the good hitting was a down year in 2015. Lucroy battled injuries and hit just .264 with a .717 OPS in 103 games, leading to some skepticism about whether he could bounce back. But everything looks good now. He’s been healthy all year and has gotten back to driving the ball. His ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio has fallen from 1.52 to 1.05, and his hard-hit rate is at a career-best 36.7 percent.

Assuming Lucroy carries this performance over to Cleveland, he would do more than just fill the black hole the Tribe’s lineup has at catcher. His right-handed bat would also help balance out a unit that, Mike Napoli aside, is short on quality right-handed hitting.

Of course, Lucroy could also help the Indians on the other side of the ball.

The other quality he’s known for is his ability to frame strikes. Harry Pavlidis of Baseball Prospectus and Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs have highlighted how Lucroy has been slipping away from his reputation in that department, but he hasn’t yet become bad at it. Baseball Prospectus’ metrics put his framing right around average. StatCorner’s put it safely above average.

Cleveland pitchers haven’t been living with terrible framing in 2016, but it could be better. StatCorner’s metrics claim Chris Gimenez has been good, but Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez have not. And overall, the three haven’t stolen many strikes for their pitchers. According to Baseball Savant, only the Seattle Mariners and Oakland A’s have gotten fewer strike calls outside the zone than the Indians have.

If Lucroy were joining another pitching staff, this wouldn’t be something for other AL clubs to fret over. But this pitching staff? Different story.

With former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer leading the way, Cleveland starters are already first in the AL with a 3.68 ERA. Though Cleveland’s bullpen would look better with another shutdown arm to pair with Cody Allen and Dan Otero, it’s hardly a liability. Its 3.58 ERA is fifth in the AL.

All told, it’s hard to think of the Indians’ trading for another player who could have as profound an impact on their title chances as Lucroy.

And make no mistake: those title chances are already very good. The Indians’ AL-best record is backed up by the AL’s highest run differential. If you look at the current World Series odds at Baseball Prospectus, the American League favorites line up like so:

  1. Cleveland Indians: 17.9%
  2. Toronto Blue Jays: 8.3%
  3. Boston Red Sox: 8.1%

Assuming the trade goes through, odds are Cleveland’s already high number will go even higher. Any team that can hit and pitch as well as the Indians can is a good bet to go far in October. If he were indeed to improve both areas, it’ll be an even better bet.

The city of Cleveland should wait on scheduling the parade, of course. At least until Lucroy actually approves the trade and it goes through. But for now, there’s nothing wrong if anyone in Cleveland wants to start trying out the phrase “Title Town.”

 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Jay Bruce’s Big-Time Power Would Fill Missing Link in Dodgers Offense

By the time you finish reading this sentence, Jay Bruce may have already become the newest member of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

But if he’s still on the Cincinnati Reds by the time you’ve gotten to this sentence, we can only go so far as imagining how well Bruce would fit in Dodger blue.

Bruce’s name has been linked to the Dodgers, who began Friday with just a two-game deficit in the NL West, on the rumor mill here and there throughout the last couple of weeks. But the real whopper came Friday evening. As reported by ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, there’s a plot afoot that could land the veteran right fielder in Los Angeles ahead of the August 1 non-waiver trade deadline:

We don’t know much more, save for one detail that’s equal parts plausible and significant.

Twitter was abuzz with speculation about Yasiel Puig possibly being involved in the deal, but Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported the Dodgers and Reds couldn’t work out a deal involving Puig and Bruce. 

With Puig out of the picture, a report from Jon Morosi of MLB Network suggests the Dodgers will need to pony up prospects to get Bruce. Because Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has been protective of his farm system, it shouldn’t be taken as a certainty that a deal will get done.

But if a deal is made, Bruce will be a fit for the Dodgers lineup in more ways than one.

With an .895 OPS through 95 games, Bruce would be a major upgrade for a right field spot that hasn’t given the Dodgers much offensive production. No thanks to Puig and his disappointing .693 OPS, the Dodgers entered Friday getting just a .713 OPS out of right field. That ranked in the bottom five of MLB.

But Bruce’s real appeal? Pictured here, that would be his expertise in the matter of clobberage:

With six dingers in his last five games, Bruce is already up to 25 home runs in 2016. That puts him just one short of his 2015 total and within reach of his career high of 34.

A power bat of that magnitude is just what the doctor ordered for this Dodgers lineup. It entered Friday ranked ninth in the National League in home runs and 12th in slugging percentage.

The Dodgers have hitters with good power, to be sure, but some of them come with question marks. For example, here’s Buster Olney of ESPN.com with a not-so-encouraging Adrian Gonzalez observation:

Super-rookie Corey Seager is also struggling with power all of a sudden, as there’s a goose egg in his home run column for July. Albeit with an injury absence in the middle, Joc Pederson has homered only six times since May 18.

Of course, it’s fair to view both Bruce’s power and overall production with a skeptical eye. He’s 29, which is a little old to be coming into career-best power. And after he managed just a .695 OPS across 2014 and 2015, what he’s doing this year may also seem too good to be true.

But poor health played a significant role in Bruce’s struggles in ’14 and ’15. He had to have surgery on his left knee in 2014, and his recovery from that seemed to last into the next season.

One way to tell he’s legitimately back this season, though, is by looking at how hard he’s hitting the ball. It shows in his surface-level stats, but even better is how he entered Friday with a career-best 37.8 hard-hit percentage.

“I just feel stronger,” Bruce told Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com in May. “I hit a lot of balls on the ground the last two years, and I usually don’t do that too, too much. I think in 2014, it had something to do with my knee. And I think in 2015, the bad habits I had carried over. So it’s just fixing that. I haven’t felt terrible, haven’t felt great. I’m just trying to keep my blinders on and go to work.”

As August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs highlighted in the spring, another thing to look for in 2016 would be whether the lefty-swinging Bruce was capable of hitting with power to the opposite field. Sure enough, his oppo power has gone way up:

  • 2014: .313 SLUG%
  • 2015: .374 SLUG%
  • 2016: .686 SLUG%

To boot, Bruce hasn’t needed the cozy confines of Great American Ball Park to boost his power. He has hit for more power (.608 SLUG%) on the road than he has at home (.538 SLUG%).

Add it all up, and you get power that would play at Dodger Stadium and make the Dodgers lineup more dangerous. That’s not a happy thought for the San Francisco Giants. Their lead in the NL West has shrunk in part because the Dodgers offense has gotten better every month even without a steady power presence.

If there’s a silver lining for the Giants and others who would be tasked with silencing a Dodgers lineup with Bruce in it, it’s that adding him wouldn’t provide the kind of balance L.A. needs.

Justin Turner and Howie Kendrick aside, the Dodgers offense skews left-handed. That’s helped lead to the league’s worst OPS against left-handed pitching. The struggle would continue with Bruce, who turns into a lesser hitter against same-side pitching.

Still, the Dodgers’ platoon split hasn’t barred them from getting this far. That has a lot to do with how their offense is coming together at the right time. Adding Bruce to the mix could allow it to take off.

All they have to do now is get a deal done.

 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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