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Leave it to Jose Fernandez, whose fastball is barely contained by the fabric of reality, to get somewhere really fast.

But while that’s all well and good, just how far can he go?

Before we get to that, let’s break from cryptic speaking for the news. Fernandez is the man of the hour, because he made history Monday night. He was long gone by the time Martin Prado slugged a game-winning home run in the 11th inning of Miami’s 3-2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, but he got the Marlins started off right by striking out 14 in 6.1 innings.

The 10th of those was the 500th strikeout of Fernandez’s career, making him the fastest pitcher in history to get there. He also had a highlight that makes him look good and Cody Asche look like a dolt:

Fernandez isn’t the fastest pitcher to 500 strikeouts by every measure. As noted by the Elias Sports Bureau (via ESPN), he needed more starts (65) than Yu Darvish (62) and Dwight Gooden (61).

But that’s not the best way to measure it. Per Evan Webeck of MLB.com, Fernandez’s 400 innings are the fewest any starting pitcher has ever needed to get to 500 strikeouts. Furthermore, Ryan M. Spaeder reveals Fernandez faced fewer batters than Darvish and Gooden:

It’s only fitting that Fernandez would make strikeout history in 2016. After striking out 10.5 batters per nine innings in his first three seasons, he now has a rate of 13.3 strikeouts per nine innings that places him far ahead of the rest of the field. To boot, the only qualified pitcher to ever do better in a single season was Randy Johnson at 13.4 per nine innings in 2001.

So, what we’re seeing is a case of a great strikeout pitcher getting even better. And since Fernandez is still only 23, you can’t help but wonder how many strikeouts he’ll put in the book in the end.

It could be a lot. Even if Fernandez never has a season as prolific as this one ever again, his career strikeout rate is still 11.3 per nine innings. That’s the highest ever for a pitcher through his age-23 season. Average that out, and he could join the coveted 4,000-strikeout club (only four members!) in just 3,200 innings.

Could…but won’t.

Look beneath Fernandez’s name on that list of the highest strikeout rates through the age of 23, and you’ll see the names Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. That comes off like a warning, and one that’s relevant in Fernandez’s case.

The two ingredients needed to climb MLB’s all-time strikeout list are talent and durability. Fernandez definitely has talent, but he’s still working on durability. He’s already had Tommy John surgery, and that’s never guaranteed to be a permanent fix.

“I can’t make them bulletproof,” Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who performed Fernandez’s surgery in 2014, told Jonah Keri for Grantland last year. “As hard as they throw, [after surgery] you’re going to be on the edge with every pitch.”

If Fernandez’s elbow doesn’t get him again, something else could. Efficient mechanics are arguably the best thing for warding off injuries, and there’s skepticism about Fernandez’s. Mechanics expert Chris O’Leary, for example, wrote at his website that Fernandez’s mechanics are “the embodiment of everything that’s wrong with the current state of pitching mechanics instruction and the modern power pitcher.”

It’s not fun to think about, but it’s thus not hard to picture Fernandez walking the same kind of career path as Prior and Wood: great at the beginning, but ultimately tragically short or injury-interrupted.

Even if Fernandez does stay healthy, he’s not going to rock an 11.3 K/9 for his entire career. Not even the Big Unit could do that, and he and Pedro Martinez are the only pitchers with more than 2,000 innings to strike out more than 10 batters per nine innings for their whole careers.

Injuries can take a chisel to a pitcher’s strikeout rate, but so can the usual aging curves. Per research by Bill Petti at FanGraphs, starting pitchers start leaking velocity in their mid-20s, and their strikeout rates begin to drop just a few years later.

If the same aging curves ultimately apply to Fernandez, he’s not going to get to 4,000 strikeouts in 3,200 innings. With a career K/9 in the neighborhood of 10, it would take more like 3,600 innings. That’s not an impossible total, but it’s a lot to ask of a guy without a track record of durability who exists at a time of pitch counts and innings limits.

As such, it’s best if nobody expects the quickest starter ever to 500 strikeouts to make it all the way to 4,000. Further injury trouble could derail things entirely. And even if Fernandez avoids that fate, he’ll probably still finish well short.

However, it’s not as hard to imagine Fernandez in the less rarefied, but still impressive air of the 3,000-strikeout club.

The trick will be making the most of his prime, which should have six or seven good years left in it if he stays healthy. With his current stuff, there’s a good chance he’ll get to 1,000 strikeouts by his age-25 season in 2018. At that rate, he could hit 2,000 in his age-29 season.

That would put Fernandez on roughly the same trajectory as Martinez, who was knocking on the door of 2,000 strikeouts as he entered his 30s. He no longer had his best stuff by then, but he got by on command and smarts long enough to cross the threshold of 3,000.

Fernandez could get there the same way. In the first couple years of his career, his M.O. was to simply challenge hitters with his mid-to-high 90s fastball and then finish them off with his cartoon curveball. But as we discussed recently, Fernandez’s fastball-curveball combination has turned into a fastball-curveball combination that’s bolstered by beautiful location patterns. He could always throw. Now he can pitch.

If Fernandez can’t stay healthy, all of this is obviously academic. But if he does stay healthy, it won’t be at all surprising to watch him continue making strikeout history.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

For the New York Yankees, August 1 is looking less like the trade deadline and more like a sell-by date. By now, there’s little question that selling on the summer market is what they should do.

Rather, a better question is how much they’ll be able to sell.

That may be the question the Yankees are asking themselves. They’re not approaching August 1 with any positive momentum. A 5-2 loss to the Boston Red Sox in the Bronx on Saturday afternoon dropped their record to 44-46. They’re 9.5 games out of first in the American League East and 5.5 games out in wild-card race.

Of course, the company line has been defiant. Yankees president Randy Levine called talk of the team selling “nonsense” in a late-June press conference. His tune hasn’t changed much.

“All the talk of buying or selling is speculation at this point,” Levine told Wallace Matthews of ESPN.com on Friday. “There’s two weeks to go, and at that time we’ll make a decision. You can’t make any decisions until you have specific transactions in front of you.”

He added: “We believe in this team.”

But Levine may not be speaking for the whole brain trust when he says “we.” Matthews heard from a source that while Levine and club owner Hal Steinbrenner don’t want to give up, general manager Brian Cashman and the rest of the baseball operations department see things differently.

Ownership can believe all it wants, but it seems the front office has been reading the writing on the wall for a while now.

The Yankees are not without their strengths, namely the late-inning relief trio of Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, which has been as advertised. But their weaknesses loom larger. They have an offense that ranked 11th in the American League in runs entering Saturday and a starting pitching staff that ranked 11th in ERA. This is not a team that’s only one or two pieces away from taking off.

If the Yankees do as they should in the coming weeks, they’ll move a couple of pieces. In his latest video report, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports indicates the list begins with Chapman and right fielder Carlos Beltran. To which we say, “Duh and/or hello.” 

Both Chapman and Beltran will be free agents this offseason, and both have significant trade value. Chapman is still pumping triple-digit fastballs and has a 2.39 ERA with a 40-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 26.1 innings. Beltran is fresh off an All-Star berth and is rocking an .872 OPS with 19 homers. This is an arm and a bat that should interest contenders.

But after those two, it gets complicated.

Mark Teixeira and Ivan Nova are the Yankees’ other two free-agents-to-be, and neither has much trade value. Teixeira has a bad knee and a .568 OPS. Nova has a 5.18 ERA. The Yankees might be able to move either of them, but not for any helpful talent.

If loading up on helpful talent is what New York’s baseball operations department has in mind, it will have to jettison some players it controls beyond 2016. That’s a lengthy list, but it’s a mixed bag in terms of trade value and trade availability.

The two pieces everyone will want are Miller and Betances, who are controlled through 2018 and 2019, respectively. If the Yankees make them available, they should find some nice prospect packages.

But Rosenthal says they don’t want to trade Miller. If that’s true, it’s hard to imagine them wanting to deal Betances. If there’s this much consternation among the Yankees about punting on 2016, they’re not going to punt on any future seasons. If they’re going to sell, they’re probably only going to sell players they think can help them more in trades now than on the field later.

This could mean putting Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and CC Sabathia on the block and see if they can interest any teams looking for a non-rental starter. The Yankees control Pineda and Eovaldi through 2017. And as Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors observed, Sabathia’s 2017 option seems likely to vest.

But how much value do these three have? Pineda and Eovaldi both have ERAs over 5.00, and the latter has since been moved to the bullpen. Sabathia was doing well for a while but is now back to looking past his prime with 25 earned runs allowed in his last 28.1 innings.

Rather than real prospects, trades of these three would likely only bring back some payroll relief. And with this winter’s free-agent class due to be weak, Andrew Marchand of ESPN.com is right to wonder what the point would be:

The Yankees’ other controllable assets are also short on trade value. Brian McCann has solid numbers but also $34 million left on his contract after 2016. Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and Chase Headley also have a fair amount of money left on their deals and don’t have solid numbers. Then there’s Alex Rodriguez, whose trade value is roughly equivalent to that of your humble narrator.

Once again, deals of any of these guys would probably have to be more about payroll relief than acquiring talent. Since the Yankees would have few free agents to reinvest that money in this winter, they’d have a hard time repairing a broken roster for 2017.

That would be fine if they had it in mind to go for a full-on Chicago Cubs– or Houston Astros-style rebuild. But they clearly don’t, nor should they. With a non-terrible farm system—Baseball America ranked it No. 17 at the start of the year—and a good amount of flexibility already lined up for an epic free-agent class in 2018, New York doesn’t need to think about starting from scratch.

There will be talk of the Yankees holding a fire sale in the coming weeks, but that’s probably not going to happen. Chapman and Beltran are likely goners, but there may not be many takers for their other free-agents-to-be. And since only Miller and Betances have any value among their controllable guys, it won’t be surprising if the Yankees hold on to them all and see if they can rebound next season.

There’s going to be a sign out front that says, “Sale!” Just don’t expect there to also be one that says, “Everything Must Go!”

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The All-Star break is over. It’s back to the grind now, and chances are the second half of the 2016 Major League Baseball season will look a lot different from the first half.

That makes this a good time to check in on the guys to beat in the awards races.

Ahead are Bleacher Report’s midseason picks for the five big awards in the American and National League: Comeback Player of the Year, Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player. We like to think we chose our picks with a balance of statistical analysis and logic (i.e. consideration of all relevant trends, history, performances, etc.), but you’re welcome to challenge us on either front.

At any rate, let’s get to it.

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For the second time in less than a year, the Boston Red Sox have paid a heavy price for a left-handed starter they hope can take them over the top. Actually, better make that a very heavy price.

But just like the first time, you can see where they’re coming from.

The Red Sox reportedly acquired All-Star southpaw Drew Pomeranz from the San Diego Padres on Thursday evening. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune had the news first and was among the first to confirm the parameters. It’s a one-for-one deal involving one of Boston’s top prospects:

This isn’t quite the Red Sox paying $217 million to sign David Price. However, the blow to Boston’s farm system is just as bad, if not worse, than the one it took in the club’s last trade with the Padres.

When the Red Sox parted with center fielder Manuel Margot and shortstop Javier Guerra in a four-player package to acquire closer Craig Kimbrel last November, they gave up two prospects who were talented but not needed in Boston. At the major league level, Xander Bogaerts blocked Guerra, while Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. blocked Margot.

Anderson Espinoza, however, is a different story.

Baseball America just ranked him the No. 15 prospect in the sport. He made it into the top 10 in Bleacher Report’s future 50, in which I raved about a fastball-curveball-changeup combination that’s advanced for a dude who’s still only 18.

He’s an ace in the making.

The Red Sox’s future sure looked good with Espinoza in it. With Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers positioned to one day join Bogaerts, Betts and Bradley, Boston’s future lineup is loaded with homegrown talent. Espinoza could have been the homegrown ace to go with them.

But the thing about the future is it’s not here yet. And in the case of the Red Sox, they shouldn’t prioritize a promising future over a promising present.

It hasn’t all been pretty, but the Red Sox’s 49-38 record would make them one of the American League‘s two wild-card teams if the season ended today. It also puts them just two games behind the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East race.

This is a good team—minus one missing link, of course, and everyone knows what that is.

The Red Sox’s starting pitching ranks 19th in the league with a 4.72 ERA. That figure would look worse without All-Star knuckleballer Steven Wright (2.68 ERA) and steady sinkerballer Rick Porcello (3.66 ERA). Price has been disappointing, and the back of the rotation has been nothing short of a dumpster fire.

It feels weird to have to reassure anyone about an All-Star pitcher, but Pomeranz can help. Although his career traveled a rocky road, he hasn’t put up a 2.47 ERA in his 17 starts by accident. His 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings underscore his dominance. At the heart of that is excellent stuff.

The 27-year-old doesn’t pop any eyes with his fastball velocity, but he’s averaging a solid 90 mph with decent vertical rise, per Baseball Prospectus. It works to set up his curveball, which Brooks Baseball reveals he throws about as often as his four-seamer.

And my, what a curveball it is. Here he is using it to finish off eight of 10 strikeouts in an April 20 start against the Pittsburgh Pirates:

“His curveball is as good as a left-handed curveball there is in the game right now,” said Padres skipper Andy Green after that game, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. “It’s playing very well. Ten punchouts were the product of that curveball.”

If you’re thinking Clayton Kershaw might take offense to Green’s opinion of Pomeranz’s hook, well, maybe not. It’s in the same ballpark as Kershaw’s curve in one respect: The three-time Cy Young Award winner is the only lefty starter who is getting more downward break on his curve than Pomeranz in 2016, per Baseball Prospectus.

Pomeranz has also put more trust in his changeup and a new cutter in this year. Pros best use such pitches to combat opposite-handed batters, so we shouldn’t be surprised Pomeranz has squashed a nagging platoon split against right-handed batters:

• vs. RHB, 2011-2015: .775 OPS
• vs. RHB, 2016: .546 OPS

Way back in 2011 and 2012, Pomeranz was a top-100 prospect on the basis of his fastball-curveball combination. Now he’s a four-pitch pitcher, and each offering is a good one. To wit, hitters are batting under .200 against all of his primary pitches, per Brooks Baseball.

Of course, he’s not perfect. Pomeranz is walking 3.6 batters per nine innings. This makes him a Rich Hill-type pitcher: a lefty who gets by more on the sheer quality of his stuff than on where he puts it.

But that’s OK. The Red Sox don’t need Pomeranz to be their best starter. Price is supposed to be that guy, and his solid 3.14 ERA since mid-May is an indication that he may still be just that. With Wright and Porcello also doing solid work, the Red Sox don’t even need Pomeranz to be their No. 2. They just need him to be a much-needed stabilizing force.

If he can be that, this Red Sox team has the potential to be pretty good.

It’s gotten this far mainly on the strength of MLB’s top run-scoring offense. That offense plus a stable rotation is a combination that could do a lot of damage. And then there’s the potential for the newly acquired Brad Ziegler to combine with a healthy Kimbrel—who’s on the 15-day disabled list due to a knee injury—to form a shutdown bullpen.

If it all comes together, the 2016 Red Sox could go far.

If not, that’s not the end of the road. The Red Sox control Pomeranz through 2018. And though the idea of having him through 2018 may not be as appealing as the thought of having Espinoza for much longer, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald raised a good point:

Prospects are great until they’re not, and they’re often not. And as tantalizing as Espinoza is, it is indeed much too soon to assume that an 18-year-old at Single-A is going to be a major league ace.

There’s no need to tell that to Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. He’s never been afraid to deal star minor league talent for star major league talent, and he has enough hits on his track record (Miguel Cabrera, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, etc.) to get the benefit of the doubt. 

The Pomeranz trade could be another hit on that track record. If it is, a price that feels heavy now won’t feel so cumbersome later.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Apart from Mike Trout being all forms of awesome and Jacob deGrom having marvelous hair, little is predictable in a Major League Baseball season. The sport deals in surprises and disappointments.

That gives us quite a few options to choose from for this list.

We’re going to look at five big surprises and five big disappointments from the first half of the 2016 season. For the sake of variety, there’s one of each for five categories: team, everyday star, ace, offseason acquisition and rookie. In addition to the main attraction, each category will also feature a few honorable/dishonorable mentions.

Step into the box when you’re ready.

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Before long, the stars will descend on San Diego’s Petco Park and Major League Baseball’s annual midsummer bash will begin. The wait for the 2016 All-Star Game is over.

Looking to get up to speed on what this year’s game is all about? You’ve come to the right place.

We have a complete preview of this year’s Midsummer Classic, which gets underway at 8 p.m. ET. We’ll go through the starting pitchers and lineups chosen by National League manager Terry Collins and American League manager Ned Yost, as well as a few things to watch for. Because the baseball gods demand sacrifices, there will also be a prediction for who will win at the end.

That’s all there is to it. Step into the box when you’re ready.

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A red-hot Troy Tulowitzki fitting into a red-hot lineup is just what the Toronto Blue Jays had in mind when they traded for him last July.

Almost a year later, they’re getting what they wished for.

The Blue Jays entered Thursday’s contest against the Detroit Tigers at the Rogers Centre in search of their sixth straight win. It seemed prepared to elude them, as Detroit was clinging to a 4-3 lead with two outs in the bottom of the eighth. But then Tulo happened, delivering a two-run single to propel the Blue Jays to a 5-4 win.

That single was the second of Tulo’s two hits on the day. With those in the bag, he’s now hitting .328 in 17 games since coming off the disabled list. He also has seven bombs in that span and, if you’re into such things, 20 RBI.

This is what a person who’s bad at being original would call a complete 180.

Tulowitzki’s batting average was under the Mendoza Line as recently as May 19, and he was hitting only .204 when a quad strain sent him to the DL. And over his first 373 (regular-season) plate appearances as a Blue Jay, he was hitting just .221 with a .685 OPS. After hitting .299 with an .885 OPS in parts of 10 seasons with the Colorado Rockies, the writing on the wall said the veteran shortstop was out of gas.

However, something happened while Tulo was out rehabbing his injury.

“I really think that I went down to Florida, it gave me a chance to work on my swing, get back to some good things that I did,” the 31-year-old told Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. “I think I’ve carried that over. When confidence comes, you start having some success. I’m really just trying to be myself. I think this is really who I am.”

Tulowitzki got a big mechanical change out of the way earlier in the season, ditching a leg kick he had experimented with in spring training in favor of his usual toe tap. The difference since his return has more to do with his approach. It’s gotten more aggressive, but without getting out of control:

Based on that first column, it’s fair to say Tulo has come off the DL looking to swing his way out of his slump. Since it hasn’t cost him any contact or walks, it’s also fair to say it’s working.

The most important change, though, is reflected in the way Tulowitzki lined Thursday’s game-winning hit to the opposite field. Whereas his pre-DL Blue Jays self was trying to pull everything, his post-DL self is making an effort not to pull everything:

• Pre-DL: 52.1 Pull%
• Post-DL: 40.4 Pull%

The non-geeky summary: Tulo has snapped out of it and gone back to being a dangerous hitter. The fair warning based on the small sample size is that he probably won’t stay this hot indefinitely. But if he can maintain a role as a productive member of the Blue Jays lineup, they’ll take it.

After all, it’s not like they need Tulo to carry their offense.

Remember when the Blue Jays offense made all other offenses look like little league chumps last year? That level of dominance had trouble carrying over into 2016. Toronto managed just a .709 OPS and four runs per game in April, hardly numbers befitting a supposed super-duper offense.

It’s been a different story since then, and one that’s getting more impressive by the day. The Blue Jays scored 4.3 runs per game in May, then 5.9 in June. Early in July, they’re at 7.1 runs per game.

Tulo’s role in this shouldn’t be ignored, but neither should Josh Donaldson’s and Edwin Encarnacion’s.

Donaldson entered Thursday with a 1.234 OPS over his last 32 games, and two more hits against the Tigers upped his total OPS to 1.018. Nothing about that is an accident. As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs highlighted, the reigning American League MVP just keeps finding ways to get better.

Encarnacion has been hotter for even longer. He entered Thursday with a 1.110 OPS over 39 games dating back to late May. That’s come complete with 13 home runs.

With the big boppers bopping like it’s nobody’s boppin’ business, all the other guys have had to do is pull their weight. They’ve more than been up to the challenge. Michael Saunders has been hot all year. More recently, Russell Martin, Kevin Pillar and Devon Travis have added warm bats to the pile.

Arguably the scariest tidbit of all is who hasn’t been involved in Toronto’s surging offense. Jose Bautista has been out since June 16 with a bad toe. If he can come back and pick up where he left off (.815 OPS, 12 homers), the Blue Jays will pull off a baseball version of the rich getting richer.

In the immortal words of Dennis Green, these Blue Jays are who we thought they were.

They figured to resemble last year’s team, which was really good at scoring runs and good enough at run prevention. They’re only getting better at the former and just as good at the latter. After allowing 4.14 runs per game last year, this year’s Blue Jays are allowing 4.18 runs per game.

What it means for now is a 49-39 record and quite a bit of momentum. They’re only two games behind the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East, and the lead feels even smaller than that.

May the best birds win.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

In a few days, Major League Baseball will break for the All-Star Game. It’ll be a nice, lighthearted exhibition for everyone involved.

But after that, things are going to get nutty.

With the July 31 trade deadline looming, baseball’s trade season will get into full-swing after the Midsummer Classic comes and goes on July 12. We’re here to preview the madness, with a look at who’s selling, who’s buying and, with assists from MLB Trade Rumors, which players figure to be available. Also, we have a few (likely ill-fated) predictions for blockbuster trades.

We’ll start with the buyers and sellers. Step into the box when you’re ready.

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We better have a good excuse if we’re going to put a modern pitcher in the company of Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez. Their names are not to be used lightly.

Currently providing a good excuse, however, is Jose Fernandez.

You might have noticed the Miami Marlins ace racking up strikeouts like crazy in 2016. With a rate of 13.10 strikeouts per nine innings, he has a comfortable advantage over Max Scherzer (11.56) for the MLB lead.

Lest anyone think a strikeout rate that huge is nothing out of the ordinary, here’s the up-to-date list of the highest single-season strikeout rates ever recorded:

1. 2001 Randy Johnson: 13.41
2. 1999 Pedro Martinez: 13.20
3. 2016 Jose Fernandez: 13.10

Hence, Fernandez is in the company of Johnson and Martinez. This is a thing that is happening, and it’s worth investigating.

Fernandez being a strikeout pitcher isn’t anything new. Mainly with a blistering fastball and a knee-buckling, humiliation-inducing curveball, he posted a 10.5 K/9 across his first three seasons.

But in 2016, the Marlins’ hope was that the 23-year-old right-hander would actually become less of a strikeout pitcher.

“We want to see him continue to pitch and continue to develop his weapons, where he’s not having to have the mentality that I’ve got to strike everybody out,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said in March to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. “There’s nothing wrong with having guy hit a ground ball early in the count. That’s what I’ve talked to him about.”

To some extent, it looks like Fernandez is trying to oblige. He’s cut down on his fastball usage, dropping it from 55.6 percent in 2015 to 54.4 percent this year. He’s also eased up on his velocity. His average fastball has been 94.9 mph. That’s still really good, but it’s a substantial drop from last year’s average of 95.8.

But strikeout rates as high as 13.1 per nine innings don’t happen by accident. More recently, Fernandez provided a few clues to what’s going on.

“A lot of it is location and making the right pitches at the right time,” Fernandez said in June, per Steven Wine of the Associated Press. “It’s something we’ve been working on. I like to throw 155 mph every pitch, but there are things you learn, and you become a pitcher and not just a guy who has good stuff.”

The main key for Fernandez, as it is with every non-knuckleball pitcher, has been fastball command. This is something that got away from him before his Tommy John surgery in 2014, when a career-low 56.2 percent of his fastballs were finding the strike zone.

As Fernandez was on the comeback trail in 2015, one thing he stressed to Christina De Nicola of Fox Sports Florida was not letting his arm drop, so as to avoid putting stress on his surgically repaired elbow. Sure enough, Brooks Baseball shows his release point went up in 2015 and again in 2016:

When Fernandez’s release point was higher in 2013, his fastballs found the zone 57.6 percent of the time. Not so coincidentally, raising it back up led to a 58.9 zone percentage last year and an even better 60.6 mark this year.

And there’s more! As August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs highlighted last month, Fernandez has gone from mostly working right down the middle with his fastball to working on the arm-side edge of the zone. That’s in on right-handed batters and away from left-handed batters. Either way, tough to hit. 

With a better-location/harder-to-hit dynamic at play with Fernandez’s primary pitch, it’s naturally become more difficult for batters to gain an advantage against him. According to Baseball Savant, he’s been behind in the count at a career-low rate. 

When Fernandez has gotten to two strikes on hitters, there’s one thing that hasn’t changed: His curveball is still his preferred finishing move. What’s changed is the effectiveness of his two-strike breaking balls. Witness:

The big difference has to do with location. While Fernandez is throwing more fastballs in the strike zone, he’s throwing more curveballs outside the strike zone in 2016. Only 36.8 percent of his hooks have been in the zone. Moreover, their hot spot is in a place that makes them tough to lay off and tough to hit.

With movement that made it a legend in the first place now combining with its new location pattern, we’re seeing a lot of swings like this at Fernandez’s curveball in 2016:

Fernandez would be dangerous enough if he had only his fastball and his curveball working. But 2016 has also seen him continue to develop his changeup.

It’s always had the movement to be a third dominant pitch in his arsenal. It was drawing a crowd as far back as his rookie season in 2013. Three years later, it has become the stuff of GIFs:

Like he’s doing with his curveball, Fernandez is now making the most of his changeup’s movement with his location. He’s throwing only 42.1 percent of his changeups in the zone. Also like his curveball, the hot spot for Fernandez’s changeup is in a place that makes it tough to lay off and tough to hit.

All of this adds up to a pitch that would be especially useful as an out pitch against left-handed batters. You can guess where this is going:

The only thing that doesn’t make the grade here is the rate at which Fernandez’s changeup is finishing off strikeouts of left-handed batters. But next to everything else, that also looks like something that could fix itself and potentially take his already sky-high strikeout rate even higher.

In all, that’s three plus pitches working beautifully in tandem with one another. The result is a historic strikeout rate that, though eye-popping, feels inevitable.

Fernandez was an elite prospect with huge minor league strikeout numbers when he arrived in 2013, and he really needed only his fastball and curveball to win Rookie of the Year. If further development wasn’t in the cards then, Tommy John surgery has a way of changing things. In his case, the change has been better use of talent that was already there.

Fernandez is not without his flaws. He’s giving up too much hard contact in 2016, suggesting he’s not above getting hurt by mistakes. In addition, his rate of 2.8 walks per nine innings has reversed what had been a downward trend in that department.

Still, strikeouts are the most foolproof way to collect outs. Fernandez is collecting those en masse by setting hitters up with his awesome fastball and knocking them down with his awesome secondaries. 

If a pitcher can do that, he may indeed find himself sharing some special company.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Any fool can pick an All-Star starting lineup. All you have to do is sit at your computer and click away until you reach the voting limit or you get carpal tunnel syndrome, whichever comes first.

But choosing which pitchers should start the All-Star Game? That’s up to Ned Yost and Terry Collins. And because the game counts, they can’t make the call without putting some thought into it.

We know which players made the first cut for the American League and National League rosters, which the league announced Tuesday evening. Yost, who will manage the AL All-Stars at Petco Park on July 12, has five starting pitchers to choose from. Collins, the NL manager, has a whopping eight.

Which pitchers are the right guys for the job? Let’s pretend we know what we’re talking about weigh the options and figure it out! 

American League

The Options: Marco Estrada (Toronto Blue Jays), Cole Hamels (Texas Rangers), Danny Salazar (Cleveland Indians), Chris Sale (Chicago White Sox), Steven Wright (Boston Red Sox)

These five have something important in common. So long as the probable pitchers at ESPN.com are in order, none of these guys are slated to pitch Sunday. That means none of them will be barred by rule from toeing the rubber in San Diego.

However, Marco Estrada is dealing with a bad back that, as the Associated Press (via ESPN.com) reported, put him on the disabled list. He’ll still travel to San Diego but won’t participate in the game.

That narrows the search down to just four options, and now we’re on our own. Per Scott Merkin of MLB.com, Yost refused to tip his hand on the topic:

If Yost wants to go with the guy who’s earned the start over multiple seasons, he’ll lean so far toward Chris Sale that he’ll be violating the lefty’s personal space. This is the Chicago White Sox ace’s fifth straight All-Star appearance. All those have come in the American League, and he’s still waiting on his first start.

If Yost wants to go with the guy who’s having the best season, there’s an argument. At 2.36 and 10.3, Danny Salazar has the best ERA and strikeouts-per-nine rate among his options. Add in his 10-3 record, and that’s arguably enough to overrule Sale’s 14-2 record, 2.93 ERA and 8.9 K/9 rate.

Another thing to consider is how Yost’s guy would match up against the National League’s starting lineup. Collins hasn’t picked a designated hitter yet, but we know who the other eight hitters are:

That’s four right-handed hitters, two left-handed hitters and two switch-hitters. Put a right-hander on the mound, and it’s an even split between righty batters and lefty batters. Put a left-hander on the mound, and he’s looking at six right-handed batters. Potentially seven if Collins picks Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Wil Myers or a number of other right-handed options to be his DH.

That doesn’t bode well for Cole Hamels, who has been hit harder by righty batters this season than any of Yost’s options. But it doesn’t crush Sale’s chances. He’s handled righty batters better than right-handers Salazar and Steven Wright. And not just in 2016, either.

That makes Sale an ideal candidate to start. And for what it’s worth, his manager has no objections to the idea.

“I would like to see (Sale) do whatever he wants to do,” Robin Ventura said, via Paul Skrbina of the Chicago Tribune. “He’s earned the right to do it. Whether they ask him to do it is another thing. … To be the guy who is asked to start is special.”

Verdict: Chris Sale

National League

The Options: Jake Arrieta (Chicago Cubs), Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants), Johnny Cueto (San Francisco Giants), Jose Fernandez (Miami Marlins), Jon Lester (Chicago Cubs), Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals), Noah Syndergaard (New York Mets), Julio Teheran (Atlanta Braves)

Hoping for Madison Bumgarner to draw the assignment? Too bad. He’s slated to start Sunday. Unless the San Francisco Giants call that off (and they won’t), he’s nixed from consideration.

That leaves seven options, one of whom is one of Collins’ guys. As Adam Rubin of ESPN.com notes, at least two pundits are reading into that:

Noah Syndergaard would be a good choice. He’s rocking a 2.41 ERA and an 11.0 K/9. He’s walking only 1.3 batters per nine innings to boot. His peripherals, including a microscopic 1.89 FIP, rate him as the best of Collins’ choices.

Plus, there’s the entertainment value of Syndergaard taking the bump. His average fastball of 98.2 miles per hour is the highest FanGraphs has recorded since 2002 for a starting pitcher, and he’s routinely climbed into triple digits. If given a chance to air it out in a short stint, he might make even Aroldis Chapman jealous.

However, that idea could make Collins and the rest of the New York Mets feel uneasy. Syndergaard is pitching with a bone spur in his right elbow. Logic says the Mets shouldn’t push their luck with that.

If Syndergaard is off the board, the legacy candidates will be 2015 Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta and veterans Johnny Cueto and Jon Lester. With a 2.33 ERA, Arrieta is also having a darn good season despite a recent slump.

Or, Collins could go straight for the matchup advantage. This year’s AL lineup does present one of those:

Whoever gets the ball for the NL will face a lineup with six right-handed batters. This makes Jose Fernandez an attractive option. He’s not only doing the best against righty batters this year, but by far the best dating back to his rookie year in 2013.

There’s more working in Fernandez’s favor. The 2.69 ERA he has this season has put his career ERA at 2.47. Among starters with at least 60 starts since 2013, that ranks behind only Clayton Kershaw (1.90), who is on the DL with a bad back. And with a 13.1 K/9, Fernandez is also working on the third-highest single-season strikeout rate ever for a starting pitcher.

Syndergaard and Arrieta are two excellent choices. If Collins goes with either of them, he won’t be going wrong.

Fernandez, though, looks like the best option.

Verdict: Jose Fernandez

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked, and are current through play on Wednesday, July 6.

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