Kuzul

Since Yoenis Cespedes and the New York Mets seem so right for one another, it’s fitting they would agree to a contract that’s so right for one another.

A reunion between Cespedes and the Mets was the big news coming off the hot stove Tuesday.

The 31-year-old outfielder became a free agent when he opted out of a three-year, $75 million contract in early November, which prompted questions about whether he would find a better deal elsewhere. Instead, he found a better deal at the same place he’s called home since the 2015 trade deadline.

After Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the deal was done, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports spilled the details:

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, Cespedes also got full no-trade protection.

And so, the 2016-17 MLB offseason recorded its first major signing. Cespedes‘ deal is worth more than twice the $52 million Josh Reddick got from the Houston Astros in his own four-year contract. It’s appropriate Cespedes was the one to do the deed, as he was widely considered the best free agent available this winter.

The bigger surprise was that the Mets signed Cespedes. They always loomed as the best fit for him, but whether they could make the financials work was a big question from the beginning.

It became an even bigger question when Mike Puma of the New York Post ran out this report last week:

Within the industry, there is a growing sense the star outfielder will command a five-year deal, which would leave the Mets facing a major decision on their immediate future.

As it stands, the Mets are likely committed to signing the 31-year-old if a four-year contract in the $100 million-to-$110 million neighborhood can be hammered out, according to an industry source, but there is less clarity on the matter when an additional year — which could push the value of a deal beyond $130 million — is considered.

A deal in that neighborhood was hardly out of the question. For instance, Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors projected Cespedes would find a five-year, $125 million contract.

The fact that the Mets brought him back for one fewer year and for significantly less guaranteed money was a big win for them. And at $27.5 million per season, they’ll pay him the rough equivalent of the salary they just fit onto their payroll in 2016.

And just as important, they retained a hugely important part of their lineup.

Cespedes has done nothing but mash for the Mets since they acquired him from the Detroit Tigers in July 2015. He OPS’d .942 with 17 home runs over the last two months of that season and returned to OPS .884 with 31 homers in 2016.

Cespedes‘ production has gone back and forth between propelling the Mets offense to greatness and saving it from utter ruin. Without him in 2015, New York would not have caught fire like it did. Without him in 2016, an even worse fate than finishing tied for 11th in the National League in runs would have been in store.

The reality that this arrangement will continue at a reasonable rate for four more years makes it easier for the Mets to swallow the downsides that are part of living with Cespedes. Those include his occasional defensive lapses and the aches and pains that have limited him to under 140 games in three of his five major league seasons.

Of course, his status as an easily marketable superstar is another bonus that makes him worth the occasional annoyances. Cespedes is media-shy, but his fondness for long dingers and shiny objects gives him a larger-than-life persona that’s perfect for baseball’s biggest media market.

But lest anyone think Cespedes did the Mets a favor by agreeing to a possibly below-market deal, let’s pump the brakes for a second.

Neither the years nor the dollars jump off the page relative to past free-agent contracts, but the average annual value of Cespedes‘ deal is no joke. Here’s Rosenthal putting it in perspective:

So to that extent, Cespedes‘ new contract makes him one of the highest-paid players in baseball history. And in the long run, the relatively short length of it could ensure there’s more where that came from.

Though Cespedes is still an excellent athlete who runs well and throws as mightily as any outfielder, his main attraction is his power. It was trending down for a while there, but he’s since turned into one of the best mashers in baseball. Over the last two seasons, he ranked 12th among qualified hitters in ISO (isolated power) with a mark of .251.

Cespedes has always had the swing path to get to this point, as he’s generally hit more fly balls than ground balls. What he needed to start doing was applying his tremendous raw power more consistently.

His hard-contact percentages reveal he’s done just that:

• 2012: 33.0%
• 2013: 31.6%
• 2014: 31.1%
• 2015: 35.8%
• 2016: 39.3%

Cespedes added yet another layer to his slugging transformation in 2016: For the first time in his career, he walked more often than the average hitter.

Corinne Landrey of FanGraphs looked at the precedent for this last week and came away unconvinced that this new habit has guaranteed lasting power. However, it might. Cespedes did improve his plate discipline, after all, and his power is certainly a reason for pitchers to be careful with him.

If he remains a disciplined power hitter over the next four seasons, there should be a market for him in his next dance with free agency—even if his other skills have eroded between the ages of 31 and 35. As much as teams like young, well-rounded players, they’ve shown they’re willing to shower money on older, one-dimensional players so long as that one dimension is a dangerous bat.

To wit, Carlos Beltran, Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez each got about $15 million per season in a multiyear contract. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista should do the same this winter.

If Cespedes follows in their footsteps, his new contract will be just as easy to appreciate then as it is now. Maybe he could have found a bigger deal, but he settled for the better deal.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers couldn’t complete a Yasiel Puig-for-Ryan Braun trade in August. Nonetheless, they left a sense they could do so eventually.

Well, how ’bout now?

After all, the August proposal wasn’t just some preposterous idea the Dodgers and Brewers kicked around for only a minute or two. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported Sept. 2 the two sides made a “legitimate attempt” to complete it, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported Sept. 14 a deal was “about 20 minutes” from being finished before the Aug. 31 deadline passed.

Some things have changed since then. But according to Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times, among the things that haven’t is Puig‘s availability:

Meanwhile in Milwaukee, Braun and the Brewers haven’t pushed thoughts of a trade out of sight or out of mind. General manager David Stearns told the Associated Press (via ESPN.com) on Wednesday that he’s asked about it regularly. Braun, for his part, is getting tired of being in limbo.

“Not knowing 100 percent where [I’ll] be playing is hard. It definitely complicates things,” he said. “Obviously, things come up. It’s a part of the business. It’s a part of the profession. If something were to happen, we’d figure it out when we get there.”

Mind you, there are hurdles in the way for the Dodgers to trade their 25-year-old right fielder for the Brewers’ 33-year-old left fielder.

The big one is money. Braun’s contract still has four years and $76 million left on it. Puig‘s contract calls for only two years and $17.4 million, plus a year of arbitration in 2019.

Though the Dodgers have spared no expense in recent years, swapping the contracts would be problematic. As Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reported Saturday, they’re looking to cut payroll as they seek to satisfy a mandate from Major League Baseball to reduce their debt.

But where there’s a will, there’s a way. And both sides should still have the will to bring their earlier talks to completion.

For the Brewers, trading Braun would be the next step toward completing their rebuild.

They’ve already shed a lot of payroll, going from a mark of $104.2 million on Opening Day in 2015 to $63.9 million in 2016. If they move Braun’s contract, their guaranteed money will be down to Matt Garza’s $12.5 million salary for 2017.

All that payroll space would be needed soon enough. Through smart drafting and trading, Milwaukee has turned a barren farm system into one that MLB.com’s Jim Callis ranked No. 1 in early August. It shouldn’t be long before the Brewers have one of baseball’s best young cores. Not long after that, they’ll be looking to lock it up.

Let’s not kid ourselves. Freeing up payroll would be the main attraction for Milwaukee in a Braun deal. But if it’s going to take on a player in return, it may as well be a lottery ticket like Puig.

He certainly has issues. He went from a .925 OPS in 2013 to a .740 OPS in 2016. With a total of 183 games played over the last two seasons, his durability has trended in the same direction. And even with his worst incidents seemingly behind him, his character remains yet another question mark.

“They’re going to take the next two weeks to try to figure out whether Yasiel Puig can fit onto the team,” Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball wrote in mid-September. “Nobody has cited anything terrible Puig has done, but there’s no getting around the fact he’d annoyed an entire clubhouse.”

If nothing else, this makes Puig a perfect candidate for a change of scenery. Going from Los Angeles, one of MLB’s biggest media markets, to Milwaukee, one of its smallest, could be just the change of scenery he needs.

Puig‘s durability and production are different matters. But as far as reasons to be optimistic go, his youth is a darn good one. With his age-26 season due up in 2017, he shouldn’t be past his physical prime.

Besides, Puig‘s struggle hasn’t been a steady string of badness. He has shown flashes of the Rookie of the Year runner-up and All-Star that he was in 2013 and 2014. He began 2015 with an .816 OPS through his first 40 games, and he ended 2016 with an .857 OPS over his final 51 games.

If Puig stays on the field and maintains that form, he would be one of two things for the Brewers: one of many quality players on a young and exciting roster or valuable trade bait if it turns out the team needs more time to rebuild.

As for the other end of this trade, the fit between Braun and the Dodgers is more straightforward.

With a career .910 OPS and an .879 OPS with 55 home runs and 40 stolen bases over the last two seasons, Braun would be an upgrade for Los Angeles in either left or right field. Those two spots were the Dodgers’ worst for offense in 2016.

The fact that Braun is a right-handed hitter gives him extra appeal. With Justin Turner afloat on the free-agent waters, Los Angeles needs one of those to balance a lineup that skews left-handed with Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Pederson, Andrew Toles and switch-hitter Yasmani Grandal.

The left-handedness of the Dodgers lineup contributed to its fatal flaw in 2016. With a .622 OPS, Los Angeles was the most inept team in the majors against left-handed pitching. It hit left-handers about as well as Erick Aybar hit everyone.

It so happens Braun is especially lethal against lefties. The 1.010 OPS he had against lefties in 2016 was in line with his career 1.028 OPS against them.

That, by the way, is the best mark of any hitter with at least 1,000 plate appearances against lefties since 2007, Braun’s rookie season.

How much longer Braun keeps this up is a good question. He’s not young, so his recent thumb and back surgeries and average of 136 games played over each of the last three seasons loom large. So does his history with performance-enhancing drugs, which got him suspended in 2013.

These concerns are why the Dodgers must try to send more than just Puig to Milwaukee. As Nightengale reported, they were also going to give up prospects and Brandon McCarthy, who would’ve helped even things out with his $23 million in guaranteed money over the next two seasons. That idea should remain on the table.

But one way or another, Braun offers enough potential reward to balance the risk.

For all his question marks, he’s been productive in the last two seasons despite being old and (for all we know) clean. If he ages well, there’s more where this came from. If he doesn’t, he could still be a useful player as he comes down from high heights.

Of course, the Dodgers must have worked this out months ago. The same goes for the Brewers with Puig. Two teams don’t get 20 minutes from a trade without convincing themselves it’s a good idea.

So, all the clubs have to do now is get back to talking.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Payroll and contract information courtesy of Cot’s Baseball  .

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If the Arizona Diamondbacks are going to dangle some starting pitchers on the winter trade market, they can rest easy knowing they at least have some name value to attract interested parties.

There’s Zack Greinke, who needs no introduction. There’s also Shelby Miller, who used to be good. Ditto with Patrick Corbin. Then there’s Taijuan Walker and Archie Bradley, two former top prospects who still have youth on their side.

Interested parties could, however, choose to skip past them and go to the [suppresses urge to type “Diamondback in the Rough”] diamond in the rough: Robbie Ray.

The Diamondbacks may already be expecting as much. After all, the word from Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is that they’re expecting interest in all of their young starters to pick up:

This adds up. In trading 2016 All-Star Jean Segura to the Seattle Mariners for Walker last week, new general manager Mike Hazen has already begun remaking a roster that produced just 69 wins in 2016. And with talented starters in short supply on the free-agent market, the Diamondbacks’ arms are bound to draw a crowd eventually. If they aren’t already, of course.

For the reasons referenced above, Hazen will get calls about Greinke, Miller, Corbin, Walker and Bradley. But Ray’s the guy who’s most likely to send the phone ringing off the proverbial hook. 

Reason No. 1: The left-hander is still only 25 with four years of club control left.

Reason No. 2: He’s very talented.

A surface-level examination of Ray’s career will raise questions about the second point. He only managed a 4.90 ERA in his 32 starts in 2016. Before that, he was a throw-in in two trades involving Doug Fister and Didi Gregorius. Before that, he was a fringey prospect after he was picked in the 12th round of the 2010 draft.

But for all the nits to pick, there’s a redeeming quality from Ray’s 2016 season that’s impossible to overlook. He struck out 218 batters in 174.1 innings. That’s 11.25 per nine innings, which was second only to the late Jose Fernandez among qualified starters.

Also, one of the best single-season marks ever for a left-hander:

Since strikeouts generally don’t happen by accident, nobody should be surprised to hear Ray’s didn’t.

After debuting with an average fastball of 91.3 miles per hour in 2014, he cranked it up to 94.1 mph in 2016. Some of that could be his coming into his physical prime. As Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs highlighted last year, it may also be coming from his abandoning a higher arm slot in favor of a more natural sidearm delivery.

Ray’s money pitch, however, is his slider. Its velocity has risen as well, from 81.1 mph in 2014 to 85.1 mph in 2016. Brooks Baseball shows he also buried more sliders below the knees, like so:

The result: Ray’s slider had the eighth-highest whiff-per-swing rate of any slider thrown by any starter, according to Baseball Prospectus.

Ray’s stuff would be attractive under any circumstances. His youth makes it even more attractive. The lack of starters who offer either of these qualities on the open market makes it more enticing still.

Of course, this raises the question of why the Diamondbacks wouldn’t prefer to keep him. There’s indeed a good chance they will. But the reason they could take advantage of Ray’s trade value now traces back to the essential truth reflected in the 4.90 ERA he posted this past season:

His talent comes with fatal flaws.

One is his control, which has produced mediocre walks-per-nine rates in the 3.5-3.7 range. That would be fine if he could at least avoid hard contact in between strikeouts and walks. But that was as big a problem as his 1.24 HR/9 and .352 batting average on balls in play from 2016 would indicate.

Per Baseball Savant, Ray was among the worst in the league with average exit velocity of 90.7 mph. This points to how his command is as big a question mark as his control. The bulk of the damage came on his heat, which he located with a noticeable pattern across the middle of the strike zone.

That’s a bad idea in general, and an even worse idea against right-handed batters. They hit .278 with 14 homers off Ray’s heat in 2016. Lo and behold, he ended the year with the following platoon split:

• Against LHB: .684 OPS, 3 HR
• Against RHB: .797 OPS, 21 HR

Say it with me now: Yikes.

Mind you, maybe Ray’s iffy fastball command wouldn’t be such a problem against right-handed batters if he had something to change speeds with. But he doesn’t. He’s largely scrapped his changeup, throwing it only 5.7 percent of the time in 2016.

The fact that Ray is basically a two-pitch pitcher leads to yet another problem. This one was covered by FanGraphs‘ August Fagerstrom, with the short version being: Ray’s predictability makes life very difficult the third time through the batting order.

All told, Ray is a strange creature. He’s done enough to turn into an overpowering starter, but he still needs quite a bit of work to turn into a truly dominant starter. 

And yet, this strange set of circumstances makes him the perfect trade chip for this winter’s market. The upside contained in his ability and controllability could have teams lining up to trade for him, and his faults could keep his price tag well below those of guys like Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Jose Quintana and Justin Verlander.

To boot, there’s a number of ways a trade for Ray could work out.

If he irons out his issues, he could turn into a top-of-the-rotation starter. If not, he’d be a candidate to make like Andrew Miller and turn his fastball-slider combo into a life as a relief ace. Failing that, he could make like Brett Cecil and turn into an elite lefty specialist.

The bottom line is that Ray’s arm ought to be on the radar of every team desperate for pitching this winter. With so few options available elsewhere, it’s a good one to try to take a chance on.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The hot-stove rumor mill has made it clear that the Detroit Tigers have all their star players on the table. Miguel Cabrera. Justin Verlander. J.D. and Victor Martinez.

And then there’s arguably their most attractive trade chip: Ian Kinsler.

Kinsler, 34, has racked up more wins above replacement over the last three seasons than every second baseman except Jose Altuve. And counting his 2018 option, he’s owed just $21 million over the next two seasons.

There is one string attached to Kinsler’s trade value. As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported, he has a 10-team no-trade clause that he wouldn’t waive unless his new team agreed to extend him.

“If one of the 10 teams happens to call and wants to talk about it, we’re open to talking about it,” said his agent, Jay Franklin. “(But) they’re going to have to extend him for us to waive the no-trade.”

Further complicating matters is how, as Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors noted, there’s a “relative dearth of demand” for second basemen right now. Second base was one of the most star-studded positions in the majors in 2016, after all.

However, none of this can stop the more imaginative among us from speculating about possible suitors and trade packages for Kinsler. So let’s get to it.

Los Angeles Dodgers

You knew this was coming, for you also saw that one report from Jon Morosi of MLB Network: 

After posting an .823 OPS with 28 homers and playing Gold Glove defense in 2016, Kinsler would be a considerable upgrade for a second base spot in Los Angeles that produced just a .723 OPS without great defense. With Chase Utley and Howie Kendrick out of the picture, said position is also wide-open.

We don’t have to speculate too hard about what the Tigers would take in a trade. Morosi claims they have their eye on a particular Dodgers prospect:

Cody Bellinger is just the kind of blue-chipper the Tigers need to be targeting as they seek to satisfy general manager Al Avila’s vision (via MLB.com’s Jason Beck) for a “younger” and “leaner” team. 

Bellinger put himself on the map with an .873 OPS and 30 homers at High-A in 2015, and he kept it up with an .872 OPS and 26 homers at Double-A and Triple-A in 2016. Baseball America ranked him as the Dodgers’ No. 1 prospect midway through 2016 and as the No. 24 prospect overall.

Per numbers crunched by Kevin Creagh and Steve DiMiceli at The Point of Pittsburgh, that kind of ranking equates to $62 million in surplus value, defined as the “amount of value that a team places on that asset when discussing him in potential trades.”

That comes close to matching up with Kinsler’s value. In light of his strong track record and cheap contract, Rob Rogacki of SB Nation’s Bless You Boys put the “conservative” estimate for Kinsler’s surplus value at $50 million. A straight-up Kinsler-for-Bellinger swap may be a fair enough deal.

But since the Dodgers are one of the 10 teams on Kinsler’s no-trade list, a trade between the two sides would more likely involve Kinsler and cash going to Los Angeles to offset any difference in surplus value and help pay for his new extension.

Or, the Tigers could do business with the…

Pittsburgh Pirates

I’m not aware of any rumors linking the Pirates to Kinsler, but Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com has the right idea in seeing them as a suitor. Kinsler would provide an upgrade at second base and free up Josh Harrison to go back to a super-utility role.

Several of the Pirates’ best young players would probably be untouchable in trade talks. Their lack of starting pitching depth behooves them to hold on to Tyler Glasnow. Andrew McCutchen’s fading star power puts them in the same boat with Austin Meadows. Josh Bell is already penciled in as their everyday first baseman.

Instead, the Pirates and Tigers would have to center a deal around Kevin Newman.

Newman’s a 23-year-old infielder who hit .320 across Single-A and Double-A in 2016. And while he’s a shortstop now, the popular wisdom appears to be that he’s ticketed for a job at second base.

The one problem: Newman landed at No. 51 in Baseball America‘s midseason top 100. That equates to $22.4 million in prospect value. Give him the benefit of the doubt and put him in the top 50, and it only improves to $38.2 million. Still not enough for Kinsler.

Ke’Bryan Hayes would do the trick of evening things out. He landed at No. 72 for Baseball America, giving him $22.4 million in prospect value. But since he’s a 19-year-old third baseman who hasn’t quite put it together yet, he also strikes a balance between an expendable piece for Pittsburgh and an upside play for Detroit.

Or, the Tigers could set their sights on a deal with the…

Atlanta Braves

The Braves have been linked to big-name starting pitchers this winter, most notably Chris Sale. That could just be them throwing a bone to fans who have had to abide two straight terrible seasons.

Or, they could be serious about getting better in 2017 and beyond.

If so, second base would be another good position to upgrade. Jace Peterson, who hit .254 with a .350 on-base percentage in 2016, isn’t bad. But without standout power or defense, he’s not great, either.

Even if Dansby Swanson, now Atlanta’s everyday shortstop, is taken off the table, the Braves still have prospects galore. But there’s one in particular who would stand out to the Tigers in trade talks: Ozzie Albies.

Albies is still only 19, but he owns a .310 average in a minor league career that’s already advanced as far as Triple-A. And while the Braves have him on a path to play second base, MLB.com posits he’s an above-average defensive shortstop.

Albies showed up at No. 17 in Baseball America‘s midseason top 100. That gives him the same prospect value as Bellinger, so a straight-up Kinsler-for-Albies swap could do the trick. If not, the balance could be evened by Detroit sending some money to Atlanta.

Since the Braves may indeed be bluffing about their desire to win now, deals with the Pirates and the Dodgers are more likely. The Dodgers, in particular, loom as the team that needs Kinsler the most and also as one of the best trading partners Detroit could ask for.

However, there could also be some mystery teams out there…

Mystery Teams

The Los Angeles Angels would no doubt love to have Kinsler to fill their black hole at second base. Cliff Pennington as a starting second baseman is…well, not ideal.

The absence of top-100 prospects in the Angels’ decrepit farm system means they’re incapable of matching the quality of other trade packages. But if they were to start a deal with toolsy outfielder Jahmai Jones and pile on, they might offer the Tigers too much quantity to refuse.

The Kansas City Royals are another American League team that needs a second baseman. Of course, there are real barriers between them and Kinsler. They and the Tigers share a division, and adding him doesn’t mesh with their desire to cut payroll—Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star has more on that.

Still, never say never. The Royals could make shortstop Raul A. Mondesi, Baseball America‘s No. 55 midseason prospect, the centerpiece of an offer and go from there.

The Philadelphia Phillies could also be lying in the weeds. Cesar Hernandez is a good second baseman, but not a franchise cornerstone. The Phillies may want to do better with the end of their rebuild nearing.

A deal between the Phillies and Tigers could involve Hernandez going to Detroit alongside one of Philly’s better prospects. Outfielder Nick Williams, who landed at No. 40 for Baseball America, would work.

There could be other mystery teams out there that are too mysterious to show up on radar. Perhaps Kinsler will end up with a team we haven’t named.

Or, he could end up with one of his most obvious suitors. Let’s go with that until we learn of his fate in real life.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Payroll and contract info courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The New York Yankees need a starting pitcher. In past winters, that would have led to their going after only the best options, and damn the cost!

But since they need to be smart this winter, let’s help point them toward Rich Hill.

In truth, it can be hard to tell which direction the Yankees are leaning in. The offseason rumor mill has featured whispers about their continuing the sell-off they kicked into high gear over the summer. Other times, it’s featured whispers about their buying up the hot-stove season’s biggest names.

Hey, even general manager Brian Cashman doesn’t seem settled on a specific direction.

“We have been walking the tightrope for a few years, and now it is (making decisions for) 2017 vs. ’18, ’19 and ’20,” he told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. “Some decisions we make will be for the future and some for the present, and they might contradict each other. We are doing both.”

However, there are things that put the Yankees more in a position to add than subtract.

For one, they’re already loaded with young talent. They entered 2016 with a respectable farm system. After trades of Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Carlos Beltran, Jim Callis of MLB.com was calling it arguably MLB’s best at the end of July.

Also, it’s partially thanks to that young talent the Yankees finished 2016 stronger than they started it. They went from 44-44 before the All-Star break to 40-34 after it. They got a big boost from catcher Gary Sanchez and smaller ones from first baseman Tyler Austin and right fielder Aaron Judge.

Those three are lined up for everyday jobs in 2017. So is first baseman Greg Bird, who missed 2016 following shoulder surgery. With veterans such as Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius and Chase Headley rounding things out, the Yankees lineup is in solid shape.

The starting rotation, however, is a different story. It’s Masahiro Tanaka on top and then a series of age (see: CC Sabathia) and effectiveness (see: Michael Pineda) question marks.

This bring us, at long last, back to Hill. According to Buster Olney of ESPN, he’s on the Yankees’ radar as a potential fix for what ails them:

This sort of feels like classic Yankees. They’re used to targeting only the best free agents, and there’s little question Hill is the best starting pitcher on the open market. Nobody else even comes close to the 2.00 ERA the well-traveled left-hander has over the last two seasons.

But the caveats here are obvious.

Hill is talented, but he’s not durable. He’s 36 years old and has pitched just 626.1 major league innings, postseason included. He’s had everything from labrum surgery to Tommy John surgery to, most recently, lingering blister issues.

Hill is also the best starter on the open market in part because it’s a terrible market for free-agent starters—Craig Edwards of FanGraphs has the rundown on that.

This has gotten the trade rumor mill spinning at warp speed. A sampling of the biggest names supposedly available includes Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Chris Archer and Zack Greinke.

With only Tanaka and Ellsbury still under long-term, big-money contracts, the Yankees have enough financial flexibility to take on any of those names. For reasons referenced above, they also have the prospect depth to work out a satisfactory deal.

But the question the Yankees are facing is the same one the Atlanta Braves have in their own search for starting pitching: Is now the right time to abandon the long game?

The point of the Yankees’ sell-off was to give in to the reality that they were past due to try to build a winner from the ground up. And not a moment too soon. That’s how championship teams must be built in an era that, as Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight and others noted, is dominated by young talent.

After their summer sell-off, it’s already possible to see a perennial World Series contender in the Yankees’ not-so-distant future. But that vision would be disrupted if they were to take a good chunk of that young talent and send it to another team for an ace.

That would be fine if it made the Yankees a World Series contender right now. But that’s a stretch. FanGraphs has them projected as a .500 team in 2017. That puts them more than just one ace away from being favorites. To get where they need to be would require trading for an ace and then making more deals or big-money signings.

Either way, the bright future that exists now would go up in smoke. And if the Yankees’ efforts to win in the short term failed, they’d find themselves back at square one ready to rebuild all over again.

Which is why they should just sign Hill.

It’s going to cost good money to sign him. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports and the MLB Trade Rumors crew both have Hill pegged for a three-year, $50 million contract. But on one bright side, Hill isn’t tied to draft-pick compensation. Signing him will only cost money, which the Yankees have plenty of.

On another bright side, the risk of signing him does come with enough potential reward to justify it.

He hasn’t carved out that 2.00 ERA since 2015 by accident. He’s been among the league’s most aggressive strike-throwers with stuff that has featured more spin than any other starter’s offerings, per Baseball Savant. Thus, his rate of 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings and .507 opponents’ OPS over the last two seasons.

In the short term, adding Hill would give the Yankees a fallback ace in case Tanaka opts out of his contract after 2017. Whether or not that happens, Hill would also help stabilize a rotation that should be welcoming prospects such as James Kaprielian, Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams, Domingo Acevedo and Dillon Tate over the next two seasons.

In the longer term, Hill’s contract would come off the books at a convenient time. After 2019, Sanchez, Austin and Judge will be arbitration-eligible for the first time and due for big raises. Presumably, even more Yankees prospects will be ready for arbitration raises in ensuing years.

The one thing adding Hill wouldn’t necessarily do is put the Yankees in the World Series conversation for the next three seasons. But the attitude they must take is that staying relevant while keeping their dream of a long-term powerhouse alive would be good enough.

Hill may no longer be around by the time that powerhouse finally arrives. But if signing him proves to be instrumental in helping the team get there, the Yankees will be glad they did it.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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It’s been 21 years since Major League Baseball exited its last work stoppage.

Oh, how I’d love to tack an “and counting” on the end of that sentence. Instead, time may be counting down to baseball’s next work stoppage.

The majors’ collective bargaining agreement is due to expire Dec. 1. The thinking has long been that MLB and the MLB Players Association—in keeping with their recent history of peaceful relations—would hammer out a new agreement before then.

Not so fast, Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com reported Tuesday:

According to Rosenthal, the owners, represented by Commissioner Rob Manfred, are growing frustrated with the slow pace of discussions on the part of the players, represented by union chief Tony Clark. And so, they’re preparing to vote on a lockout if a new deal doesn’t materialize by deadline day.

This is obviously a threat, presumably leaked from the owners in an attempt to light a fire under the players. Such things tend to happen in situations like these. Perhaps the only surprise is that it came so late in the game.

But as late in the game as it is, there is still time. Counting Tuesday and deadline day, the two sides have 10 days to work something out.

“In terms of trying to make a deal, 10 days is plenty of time,” Manfred told Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

To boot, the Dec. 1 deadline is more of a target date than a true deadline. As Nathaniel Grow of FanGraphs noted last week, the league and the union can keep talking beyond that date if they so desire.

All the same, there’s no denying the tenor of the situation has changed. And not for the better.

While the owners may be frustrated with the pace of talks, the sticking points between the two sides are more specific.

According to Rosenthal, one involves the competitive balance tax. Another involves changes to the Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.

The big one, however, is the idea for a draft for international amateurs. Manfred has been lobbying for that ever since he stepped into Bud Selig’s shoes in January 2015, typically with the same talking points.

“I am of the view that at some point, for the good of the game, for the good of competitive balance, we are going to have an international draft,” Manfred said last spring, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via MLB Trade Rumors).

Rosenthal reported the owners are willing to scrap the qualifying-offer system to get an international draft. At first, that would seem to be welcome news for the players.

After all, the qualifying-offer system has been a frequent source of controversy since it was implemented in 2012. Players who reject the one-year offers (valued at $17.2 million this winter) are tied to draft-pick compensation in free agency, which has been a major drain on some players’ value.

And yet, it seems the players aren’t motivated enough by the proposal to do away with qualifying offers to accept an international draft. Even though they’re not obligated to go to bat for the amateurs who would be affected, Rosenthal reported the players are strongly opposed to the idea.

Why? Because it’s not really about competitive balance, as Manfred said.

It’s about money. As Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote Nov. 11, an international draft would “give owners a systematic way to control their labor costs, meaning less money for players and more money for owners.”

The system MLB has in place for international amateurs assigns teams bonus pools that vary in size based on where they finished in the standings the prior season. Certainly, it’s not an ideal system.

But for now, it at least gives teams a chance to negotiate with any player they desire. That’s partially why some are willing to accept the penalties for exceeding their bonus pools. The most prominent example of that was when the Boston Red Sox broke the bank for Yoan Moncada in March 2015.

Meanwhile, consider the draft baseball does have. Its nature prohibits teams from negotiating with whomever they’d like to and, since 2012, has put limits on how much they can spend. For the owners, it’s a perfect cost-control system. No wonder they want to replicate it for international players.

Hypothetically, less money spent on amateurs means more money for owners to spend on established players. But the union must be aware that’s not how things have been playing out.

In fact, the players’ share of baseball’s pie has been trending downward at an alarming rate. As Grow covered last spring, player payroll has gone from a peak of 56 percent of the league’s total revenue in 2002 to just 38 percent in 2014. More and more, the wealth hasn’t been trickling down.

It’s not a matter of the money not being there. As reported by Maury Brown of Forbes, MLB revenues hit a new height of $9.5 billion last season. That was up from $9 billion in 2014.

What has changed is how teams prefer to spend their money.

They’re more wary of spending in free agency than they used to be. In the modern performance-enhancing drugs testing era, players tend to be near or past the end of their primes when they finally hit free agency. They’re not good long-term investments.

As for the young guys, their costs have been controlled for many years by the arbitration system. And even when they sign big-money extensions, they tend to be for far less than what they would have earned on the open market—see Mike Trout signing for six years and $144.5 million.

So while ditching qualifying offers in exchange for an international draft may seem like a fair trade, the players understandably aren’t convinced since the owners would swap out a relatively minor cost-control device for the latest in a series of major cost-control devices.

“We aren’t giving them something that affects 30 percent of big leaguers and probably 50 percent of minor leaguers in exchange for something that affects less than 20 players every year, especially guys who are staring $17 million in the face,” one source told Rosenthal.

Understand, all this bad noise doesn’t mean the players can’t be moved to make a deal before deadline day. As one source told Rosenthal, the remaining sticking points are “nothing that reasonable and creative people can’t resolve.”

But it’s also understandable why one player said the union “will fight” if pushed. The system hasn’t been unkind to players recently, but it’s been a lot kinder to the owners. Why roll over and let the trend continue?

If a lockout does happen, the good news for fans is that only the business side of the game would be interrupted. The hot-stove season would definitely get boring. But unlike the 1994-95 strike, no games would be in immediate danger. Much less the World Series.

The optics, however, would not be good. Baseball is swimming in cash, with strong attendance numbers and a smash-hit World Series in its wake. The sport is healthy.

Best not to let anything challenge that health.

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In a winter during which aces are in short supply, the hot-stove trade market seems to revolve around Chris Sale.

And he’s not even the best thing on the market.

Let’s make a case for the Chicago White Sox’s other left-handed stud: Jose Quintana. He’s also good, and he may also be available as the White Sox seek to course-correct after four straight losing seasons.

“We aren’t approaching this offseason thinking we can make a couple of short-term tweaks to put us in position to win on a sustainable basis,” White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said Nov. 8, via Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune. “We intend to make a firmer commitment to a direction to put ourselves in a better long-term position.”

Dating back to a September report from Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball, there’s been trade speculation about Sale and Quintana for a while now. But be warned: They may not be equals in terms of availability.

Buster Olney of ESPN.com reported Friday the White Sox are “willing to deal any player who has fewer than four years of team control.” With a contract with options through 2019, the 27-year-old Sale matches that description. With a contract with options through 2020, the also-27-year-old Quintana does not.

“It leads me to believe they’d like to hold on to him,” one GM told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe last week. “Sale was mentioned, [Carlos] Rodon was mentioned and all the others, but not Quintana.”

But with no true No. 1 starters available in free agency, it’s not hard to imagine the White Sox being overwhelmed enough by an offer for Quintana to say yes. Some teams may be even more interested in him than they are in Sale.

With $39.5 million owed to him over the next three years, Sale is affordable. With a maximum of $38.85 million—his 2020 option gets a boost if he wins or places high in Cy Young Award voting—owed to him, Quintana is just as affordable over the next four seasons. And keep in mind, he’s only about two months older than Sale.

Then there’s the matter of their talent.

Sale has a lot of that, earning five straight All-Star nods and four straight top-five Cy Young finishes on the strength of sizzling stuff and pinpoint command. But in terms of WAR, Quintana has been the more valuable pitcher in each of the last two seasons:

Quintana garnered that edge despite a lesser workload, as he’s pitched 414.1 innings to Sale’s 435.1. But Quintana has been more effective, posting a 3.28 ERA to Sale’s 3.37 ERA.

Sale obviously can’t blame the ballpark he pitches in, the defense he pitches in front of or the competition he pitches to for those disadvantages. Other teams know that.

It’d also be fair for them to question if the divide between Sale and Quintana could get bigger going forward.

Sale opened the door enough in 2016 for doubts to creep in, after all. His strikeout rate went from trending ever upward to plummeting to “just” 9.3 per nine innings. He also lost nearly two mph off his average fastball from the year before, going from 94.5 mph to 92.8 mph.

Sale said in May that this was by design, telling Scott Merkin of MLB.com that “not throwing every single pitch as hard as I can every inning” was a change he wanted to make.

But as he gets closer to the big 3-0, the fear has to be that Sale could lose even more velocity and tumble further from his days as a strikeout specialist. How he would fare as a pitch-to-contact guy with less than electrifying stuff is a big unknown.

Meanwhile, such an unknown doesn’t exist with Quintana.

While Sale’s velocity has become a question mark, Quintana’s velocity held steady in the mid-91 mph range from 2013 to 2015 before peaking at 92.1 mph in 2016. That’s a sign he hasn’t already used all his best bullets.

Arguably just as good of a sign is that increased velocity hasn’t made Quintana accustomed to a strikeout habit he might not maintain. He’s better than he used to be, but he’s only been about an average strikeout artist since 2013. For the most part, he gets by on command and deception instead.

His 2.0 walks per nine innings since 2014 provides a picture of how good his command has become. Brooks Baseball provides additional pictures, showing how he works one side of the zone with his four-seamer and the other with his sinker and how he buries his curveballs below the knees.

As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs highlighted in May, one thing Quintana’s curve has going for it is a massive velocity difference from his fastball. It was 14.4 mph in 2016. That makes it better than the average hook when it comes to changing speeds, which is yet another challenge hitters must overcome.

Beyond the decent amount of whiffs he gets, one of the benefits of Quintana’s approach is good contact management. Per Baseball Savant, he’s been especially better than average at stifling hard contact on fly balls and line drives over the last two seasons:

This explains not just how Quintana keeps the ball in the yard so well, but also why his contact-heavy approach wasn’t sunk by a bad White Sox defense in 2015 or a mediocre White Sox defense in 2016.

Long story short: Quintana doesn’t need to miss bats to be a hard guy to hit. His excellence is not based on the dominance of his stuff, a la Sale, but instead on how he uses it. That’s something he should keep up even as he ages over the next four seasons.

Mind you, the price to acquire those four seasons isn’t going to be cheap. Last week, I explored how the White Sox are in a position to demand a collection of elite prospects in a Sale trade. Quintana’s talent and the extra year on his contract put them in a position to demand even more for the Colombia native.

The trade-off, if you will, is a chance to get an equally good pitcher for longer. If Quintana ages as well as he should, it could even mean getting a better pitcher for longer.

Sounds like a good deal, no?

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Contract info courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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The Atlanta Braves seem to have a Chris Sale obsession. I say we stage an intervention before it gets any worse.

Who’s with me?

OK, maybe some concessions are in order first. The Braves and Sale are indeed a match made in hot stove heaven from a strictly on-paper perspective. Veteran signees R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon will boost a starting rotation that posted a 4.87 ERA in 2016—but not as much as Sale would.

The lefty ace, currently of the Chicago White Sox, has a 3.04 ERA since 2012 and has finished in the top five of the American League Cy Young voting every year since 2013. Did you know only the best pitchers can do things like that? It’s true.

Sale, 27, isn’t the only ace trade chip on Atlanta’s radar. According to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Braves are also eyeing Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Chris Archer and Oakland A’s right-hander Sonny Gray.

Sale, however, is their “focus.” And if this report from ESPN.com’s Buster Olney is any indication, said focus is part of a real effort to do something:

It’s possible this is just a PR smokescreen. With back-to-back 90-loss seasons (95 in 2015 and 93 in 2016, to be exact) in their wake and a new ballpark on the horizon for 2017, the Braves may be leaking these interests to generate some goodwill among their fans.

After all, going through with a blockbuster trade for an ace would be quite the departure from what was being said earlier in November.

“You don’t buy No. 1 starters,” Braves general manager John Coppolella said, via O’Brien. “You grow them. You draft them, you develop them. For us, it’s not efficient for us to go out and buy a No. 1 starter. Unless something drastically changes, you won’t see us going after a No. 1 starter.”

Buying a No. 1 starter on this winter’s free-agent market is basically impossible. Rich Hill, 36, is the best option there is, and his age and durability issues make it tough to stick the No. 1 label on him.

As such, the only way a team can snag a No. 1 starter this winter is on the trade market.

Sale is the crown jewel of said market. And not just because of his talent. His contract controls him through 2019 at a total of $39.5 million. 

When Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs crunched the numbers, he put Sale’s surplus value on top of that at $84.5 million. Per other numbers crunched by Kevin Creagh and Steve DiMiceli at The Point of Pittsburgh, that makes Sale worth at least a top-10 hitting or pitching prospect plus a little extra.

But in this winter’s market, that’s likely just the starting point in trade negotiations. The lack of options on the open market and Sale’s combination of name value, on-field value and surplus value puts the White Sox in a position to demand several of a team’s best prospects.

For what it’s worth, the Braves are among the few teams that can do a trade like that.

Keith Law of ESPN.com had their farm system ranked No. 1 in MLB as recently as July. That’s a credit to how well the Braves have rebuilt through trades and the draft. The one untouchable in their system is likely Dansby Swanson, whom the Braves would presumably like to keep as their starting shortstop after his successful breakthrough late in 2016.

Everyone else would presumably be on the table for a Sale trade. Ozzie Albies. Sean Newcomb. Kolby Allard. Ian Anderson. Mike Soroka. Touki Toussaint. Max Fried. And so on.

The Braves would have every reason to give up several of those names if an ace starting pitcher were the missing link between them and contention in the NL East as soon as 2017. But therein lies the rub.

Does anyone think this team is just one player away from being ready to win?

Sure, the Braves did go 37-35 after the All-Star break in 2016. But they did so while allowing 23 more runs than they scored. That’s a glaring warning not to read too much into their surge.

It’s early, but the 2017 projections at FanGraphs only have the Braves improving from 68 wins to 74 wins. Sounds about right for a team that would be mostly the same except with full seasons from Swanson, who is very good, and Dickey, Colon and Matt Kemp, who are not very good.

There’s not a ton of uncertainty elsewhere in the NL East, either. The Washington Nationals are going to be good. The New York Mets will at least have their arms. The Miami Marlins will at least have their bats. None of the three figures to plummet and open a door for the Braves to sneak through.

Of course, the Braves wouldn’t be under too much pressure to win immediately with Sale. But playing the long game with him doesn’t make much sense, either.

With Sale due for free agency after 2019, the clock would begin ticking in 2018. One problem there is that trading for him will have emptied the farm system of quite a few prospects who might have been graduated to the majors or used in trades.

That would force the Braves to load up in the 2017 and 2018 free-agent markets that will be better stocked than this one. But other teams will be looking to do the same thing, and even the Braves’ new stadium may only be so helpful in allowing them to spend competitively.

A better idea would be to give up on Sale and prioritize Archer instead. He has a contract that runs for two years longer at virtually the same price. His prospect cost may be the same because of that, but at least it would put the Braves in a better position to play the long game. And with a pitcher who’s darn good in his own right.

Or, the Braves could do nothing and continue to build from within. They’re headed in the right direction in that regard. Rather than try to jump ahead, keeping it slow and steady is the way to go.

It’s not often an intervention urges the subject to keep doing what they’re doing, but…Hey, you gotta do what you gotta do.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Payroll and contract info courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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Who’s up for some hot stove fan fiction?

Hey, we might as well indulge ourselves while we wait for Major League Baseball’s offseason to kick into high gear. There have been some moves, but nothing too major yet.

All the big moves exist only as rumors. They might not come true. Or maybe they will! That’s the exciting part about rumors.

So, let’s run with it and imagine what would happen if some of the biggest rumors became realities.

Miguel Cabrera to the Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have answered two of their big question marks, trading for Brian McCann to play catcher and signing Josh Reddick to patrol their outfield. Not bad. Not bad at all.

But one big need remains. Only two teams got a lower OPS from their first basemen than the Astros in 2016. The first name mentioned in a recent report from Jon Morosi of MLB Network would sure do the trick of getting that squared away:

Yes, that Miguel Cabrera. The Detroit Tigers star with the two MVP awards, four batting titles and 446 career home runs. Way to aim high, Astros. 

Of course, there may not be much to this. In fact, a man who would know says there’s not.

“I was asked, ‘Would we consider a trade for a Hall of Fame-caliber first baseman,’ and we’re considering everything. I think the media kind of ran with that,” Houston general manager Jeff Luhnow told Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle.

Still, this idea isn’t as outlandish as that one from WFAN’s Sweeny Murti about the New York Yankees trading for Mike Trout. The Astros are a win-now team with an obvious need, young talent to spare and enough payroll flexibility to take on a good chunk of the $220 million remaining on Cabrera’s contract. 

Cabrera going to Houston would be the clearest sign yet that the Tigers are indeed in sell mode. Detroit GM Al Avila would be flooded with calls about what else he’s got. 

But we’ll get back to that.

A more immediate matter is how the Texas Rangers, the two-time reigning American League West champs, would respond to Houston’s act of aggression. They’d surely rethink their position, as reported by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, to bolster their starting rotation with a mere back-end type.

The solution: Chris Archer.

Rosenthal notes the Rangers had “extensive trade discussions” with the Tampa Bay Rays around the summer trade deadline. It was around then that Morosi pitched a trade for Archer centered around super-utility man Jurickson Profar. Something like that could still work this winter, and the resulting upgrade in Texas’ rotation would be a good counter for Cabrera going to Houston.

Elsewhere in the AL East, Cabrera ending up in the AL West would be good news for the Boston Red Sox. It would take perhaps their primary competitor for Edwin Encarnacion off the table.

Oh, sure. It’s out there from Rob Bradford of WEEI that the Red Sox aren’t that interested in the 33-year-old slugger. But after using his trademark pull power to average 39 home runs over the last five seasons, Encarnacion is the ideal candidate to fill David Ortiz’s shoes at designated hitter and take aim at the Green Monster.

If the Red Sox don’t have to pay more than the four-year, $92 million contract predicted by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors, they’d surely stop being coy and get signing Encarnacion over with.

That would be a bummer for Jose Bautista, who Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported “loves” Boston and Fenway Park. That, in turn, would be good news for the Toronto Blue Jays, who could bring Bautista back to play right field.

With the Red Sox adding a slugger and the Blue Jays retaining one of their own, the Baltimore Orioles would be left to mull how to keep up. The obvious choice would be to re-sign 2016 home run king Mark Trumbo, who may not have much of a market outside Baltimore anyway.

Of course, these AL East clubs also wouldn’t mind seeing Archer out of the division. But elsewhere, Archer going to Texas would have an impact in the National League East.

Chris Sale to the Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals’ starting rotation is headed by a two-time Cy Young winner in Max Scherzer, but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t use an upgrade.

According to Rosenthal, one of their ideas is to deal for Archer. Him coming off the table would be extra incentive to go for their plan A: Chris Sale.

Yeah, yeah. They can get in line. But they would fit well at the front of said line. The Nationals can offer the Chicago White Sox an array of young arms. They can also afford the $38 million Sale will be paid through 2019. And as Rosenthal notes, Nats GM Mike Rizzo does like his “bold moves.”

The Nationals trading for Sale would put the rest of the NL East on high alert. Especially the New York Mets, who would have extra incentive to add the big bat they require.

More than likely, that would mean sticking with their preferred target: Yoenis Cespedes. This from Mike Puma of the New York Post:

With draft-pick compensation around his leg thanks to his rejection of his qualifying offer, the Mets have the advantage of not having to surrender a pick if they re-sign Cespedes. If they were to add a couple of years on top of the two years and $47.5 million the 31-year-old opted out of, a deal could get done.

The Nats and Mets loading up would call for drastic measures in Miami. But since the Marlins don’t have the resources to fill the tragically vacated position atop their rotation, they’d have to move on to the next best thing: a shutdown closer.

According to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, Kenley Jansen is the guy they want. The former Los Angeles Dodgers closer would cost a pretty penny, but he and his career 2.20 ERA would do the trick of giving the Marlins the “super pen” Heyman says they crave. 

With Jansen off the board in the East, two closer-needy clubs out West would be left to fight over what’s left. That would mean…

Aroldis Chapman to the San Francisco Giants

Anyone who caught even a fleeting glimpse at their bullpen down the stretch in 2016 won’t be surprised to hear this, but here goes: The San Francisco Giants really want a closer.

“We are getting one of the big closers,” a Giants official told Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, referencing Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon.

If Jansen signing with Miami narrowed their choice to Chapman and Melancon, Chapman would be the clear solution.

Yes, he’d be more expensive than Melancon. Chapman wants a $100 million contract, according to Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago. But with a 1.84 ERA since 2012 and a career rate of 15.2 strikeouts per nine innings, Chapman is just the guy for the Giants to go all-out for.

To boot, his never-ending supply of 100 mph fastballs would be a welcome addition to a bullpen that’s tied for last in average fastball velocity since 2012.

Jansen signing with the Marlins and Chapman signing with the Giants would put the Dodgers in a bind with their own closer hole. They’d either have to sign Melancon or pursue other options.

After having a competent bullpen for the first time in ages in 2016, it’s easier to imagine the Dodgers concluding now’s not the best time to risk trending backward. With a 1.80 ERA since 2013, Melancon would keep them moving forward.

A bright side is that Melancon would come much cheaper than Chapman or Jansen. That would leave money in the Dodgers’ pockets to fill other holes, such as the glaring ones at third base and second base.

The third base one is easy. They could just re-sign Justin Turner, who’s lacking in obvious fits outside of Los Angeles anyway. At second base, the Dodgers could pursue the idea that popped up on Morosi’s feed this week:

Trading for Ian Kinsler would allow the Dodgers to retain the scrappy mentality that Chase Utley brought to second base in 2016, except with a lot more talent. Kinsler had an .831 OPS and won a well-deserved Gold Glove in 2016, and he has been generally underrated for 10 years now.

The Giants may have it in mind to make signing a closer their only big move. But if the Dodgers get Melancon and round out their infield with Turner and Kinsler, the Giants would need another big splash.

Per Morosi, said splash could be pulled off with a deal of their own with Detroit:

J.D. Martinez, eh? Good idea. His 83 dingers over the last three seasons are just the thing for the Giants’ left field hole and power-starved offense.

After that…uh…hmmm…

You know, I think that’s all the speculation I can muster. We didn’t hit every player or every team, but I daresay we hit enough. We’ve put together a rousing story of what could happen this winter.

What will happen? That’s a different story. We’ll experience it soon enough.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Contract info courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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It feels like an upset that Mike Trout won the American League MVP. That says enough about where the baseball world is.

Or rather, where it’s been.

In the weeks, days and hours leading up to Thursday’s big announcement, it seemed like everyone was bracing for Trout (and fellow finalist Jose Altuve) to fall short of Mookie Betts in the AL MVP vote.

Trout had numbers, as usual. But Betts had numbers and what’s historically a big advantage: His Boston Red Sox made the playoffs and also won 19 more games then Trout’s Los Angeles Angels.

But whaddya know! Turns out the Baseball Writers’ Association of America had a surprise in store. For the second time in his career, Trout is the American League’s Most Valuable Player.

And it wasn’t even close. Trout received 356 points to Betts’ 311 and Altuve’s 227. Trout also received 19 first-place votes to Betts’ nine and Altuve’s zero.

“It’s crazy,” the 25-year-old said on MLB Network, via Austin Laymance of MLB.com. “Can’t take anything away from Mookie and Jose Altuve, great guys, great team guys. I’m speechless, man.”

The Houston Astros would have struggled to get to even 84 wins without Altuve. The tiny-yet-fierce second baseman won the AL batting title with his .338 average and also chipped in 24 home runs and 30 stolen bases.

Likewise, the Red Sox would have been a lot worse without Betts’ .897 OPS, 31 homers and 26 steals. This is not to mention the defense he played in right field, which earned him a Gold Glove and more defensive runs saved than any other defender.

With respect to Altuve, it’s Betts’ performance that stands out. And the fact it was all in service of a winning team would have earned him some hardware on Thursday under normal circumstances.

You know, the same circumstances that contributed to Trout’s falling short in 2012, 2013 and 2015. The circumstances that said, “Sorry, dude. You’re really good, but your team missed the playoffs.”

This year, the writers flipped the script and chose circumstances many have been begging them to choose for the last five years: All that matters is who’s the best.

Because this is an article in honor of Trout’s value, here are the three letters you’ve been expecting: W-A-R. 

Yeah, it just wouldn’t be a proper AL MVP discussion without referencing Trout’s value as measured by wins above replacement. And whether you prefer the Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs or Baseball Prospectus version, he easily topped both of his competitors:

Betts and Altuve shouldn’t feel bad. Everyone else in the AL finished behind Trout in WAR this year too. That’s the way it’s been for five seasons now.

And no, that’s not normal. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Trout’s five straight seasons leading the AL in WAR is the longest stretch since a fella named Babe Ruth back in the 1920s and ’30s. There’s your daily reminder that when it comes to Trout and WAR, the most relevant names are typically legendary ones.

WAR, of course, is a convoluted stat. But as a measure of all-around value, it usually has the right idea. 

Trout was a monster at the plate in 2016. He hit .315 with 29 home runs and a .991 OPS. He led all of baseball with his .441 on-base percentage and his 174 OPS+, which adjusts his OPS in part to account for the huge dimensions of Angel Stadium of Anaheim.

After a couple of down seasons, Trout also got back to being a monster on the bases. He swiped 30 bases after stealing just 27 in the last two seasons combined and finished barely behind Betts for the MLB lead in total baserunning value.

On defense, the advanced metrics rated Trout’s play in center field as somewhere between acceptable (minus-0.3 UZR) and quite good (six DRS). Given that center field is more difficult and more important than left field and right field, even merely acceptable center field defense is welcomed.

Trout has offered nits to pick in past seasons. In 2014, he struck out too much. Last season, his already declining baserunning got especially mediocre. Et cetera.

But in 2016? A guy who was already regarded as the best player in baseball turned in arguably his best season yet. The best got even better.

The only reason to deny Trout the MVP was the one most everyone expected to be used against him: He didn’t play for a winning team. This is true. The Angels won just 74 games, and even that seems like a lot for a team that was a ghostly shimmer outside of Trout.

But as Dayn Perry did a wonderful job of breaking down at CBSSports.com, the notion that MVPs must come from winning teams is manufactured. The voting guidelines mention no such thing, nor are there any ambiguous hints toward such a guideline. The only thing ambiguous is how to define “valuable.”

If we’re being fair, that means voters need not consider only WAR and its assorted parameters when weighing MVP options. It would be perfectly reasonable, for example, to make a case for why Betts deserved extra consideration over Trout because of how he specifically helped the Red Sox get to 93 wins and into the postseason.

Thing is: That case doesn’t exist.

You could make the case that Betts pushed the Red Sox into the playoffs when it mattered most in September. But he didn’t. His OPS in the season’s final month was just .762. Among the many players who outperformed him was Trout, who had a .948 OPS.

You could also make the case that Betts had a lot of clutch hits throughout the year. But he didn’t do that either. He had a .907 OPS in high-leverage situations. That landed far short of the MLB leader in that category.

Who, by the way, was Mike Trout.

His upset on Thursday is therefore of the pleasant variety. This is not a case of the MVP going to the best player who also had X, Y and Z. It’s a case of it going to the best player, period.

What a concept! What’s say we try it again sometime?

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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